South Asia Terrorism Portal

PAKISTAN

Fidayeen Rampage
Ajit Kumar Singh
Senior Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 31, 2023, at least nine soldiers were killed and another 20 sustained injuries, when a suicide bomber riding a motorcycle blew himself up, targeting a military convoy in Mali Khel area of Bannu District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) said that an affiliated cell of the group, Sufyan Karawan, carried out the attack. A ‘spokesperson’ of the outfit, Toray Dawar, identified the suicide bomber as Dewana Latakwal.

On August 27, 2023, two soldiers sustained injuries when a suicide bomber on a motorcycle detonated his device near a patrolling Security Forces (SFs) convoy in the Garyom area of North Waziristan District in KP. The Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) claimed the attack.

On August 7, 2023, at least two civilians were killed in a suicide attack targeting a Bomb Disposal Squad (BDS) team at Khadaki village in North Waziristan District. No group has claimed the attack, so far.

In another two suicide attacks in August – on August 2 and August 9 – though the attackers died (one in each case), no other casualty was reported. 

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Pakistan has recorded a total of 25 suicide attacks in the current year (data till September 3), resulting in 244 fatalities (71 civilians, 126 SF personnel and 47 terrorists). During the corresponding period of 2022, there were six such incidents which had resulted in 91 fatalities (71 civilians, 14 SF personnel and six terrorists). During the whole of 2022, there were 13 such attacks with 109 fatalities (79 civilians, 17 SF personnel and 13 terrorists).

The number of suicide attacks in 2023 is already the highest in a year since 2017, when there were 25 such attacks. The resultant fatalities in 2023 are also the highest since 2018, at 300. Almost four months remain in 2023.

Clearly, there has been a dramatic surge in such attacks and resultant fatalities.

Meanwhile, two of the most prominent suicide attacks of 2023 included:

July 30: At least 64 people were killed and more than 150 were wounded in a suicide blast at a Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl workers’ convention in the Khar Tehsil (revenue unit) of Bajaur District, KP. The bomber struck a gathering of over 500 attendees at the convention. An estimated 12 kilograms of explosives were used in the blast. Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl, headed by Fazalur Rehman, is a religious political party adhering to the Deobandi ideology, and is a coalition partner of the incumbent government in Pakistan. Islamic State-Khorasan Province claimed responsibility for the attack, and justified it by describing the Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl convention as a ‘gathering of a political party which is part of the coalition government in Pakistan.’ The group also threatened more attacks against the Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl and other similar religious political parties. Later, the Al Azaim media, the Islamic State’s mouthpiece, published a 92-page pamphlet critiquing Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl and called for more attacks against its scholars and members.

January 30: At least 93 persons, most of them policemen, were killed, and another 220 were injured, in a suicide blast inside a mosque in the Police Lines area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP. The suicide attacker, who was in a Police uniform, was present in the front row during the Zuhr prayer (the third prayer of the day, offered at noon). Later, two Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan leaders, Sarbakaf Mohmand and Omar Mukaram Khurasani, claimed that the attack was “revenge” for the death of Khalid Khorasani, the chief of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s splinter group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, in the Barmal District of Paktika Province of Afghanistan on August 7, 2022. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan central ‘spokesman’ Muhammad Khorasani, however, denied any involvement in the attack, asserting, “according to our laws and general constitution, any action in mosques, madrasas, funeral grounds and other sacred places is an offence.”

The worst previous suicide attack was recorded way back in 2018. On July 13, 2018, at least 149 civilians were killed and 186 others were injured, when a suicide bomber blew himself up targeting a political rally of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) at Dringarh village in the Mastung District of Balochistan. According to the BDS, up to 15 kilograms of explosive material was used in the incident. The dead included Siraj Raisani, the BAP candidate from the National Assembly seat Province Balochistan–35 (PB-35, Mastung). Siraj’s elder brother, Nawab Aslam Raisani, was the Chief Minister of Balochistan Province between 2008 and 2013. Most of the other victims were residents of the Kanak and Dringarh areas, who had invited Raisani to announce their support for him. Both the Islamic State (IS) and the ‘Ghazi Force Lal Masjid’ wing of the TTP had separately claimed responsibility for the attack. 

During 2023, SFs have neutralized at least seven terrorists (killed: four, arrested: 3) before they could carry out suicide attacks. Some of the incidents included:

May 10: A terrorist wearing a suicide vest was killed and another injured by the SFs when they tried to enter Hong Kong Rivers and Pak China Boatyard in the Sukkhan area of Malir District in Sindh Province, where around 31 Chinese nationals were present.

April 24: Three terrorists, including two suicide bombers who blew themselves up, were killed during a counter-terrorism operation carried out by Police in Pahar Khel Thal village of Lakki Marwat District in KP.

February 18: The Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) arrested a female suicide bomber, Mah Pul, of the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and recovered a suicide jacket from her possession, in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. Officials reported that she planned to attack important installations or security personnel in Quetta.

February 17: A suicide bomber, Rehman Mehsud alias Nekro, belonging to TTP, was killed after his vest exploded during an intelligence-based operation (IBO) by the SFs, in the Spinkai area of South Waziristan District in KP. Mehsud had come to Pakistan from Afghanistan and was involved in various attacks on SF personnel. He was also a close ally of important TTP ‘commanders’ Azmat Ullah aka Lala and Khairban aka Khairu.

February 9: The CTD and other security agencies foiled a plan for a suicide attack in the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad by arresting two TTP terrorists, during a joint operation in the Police Lines area of Rawalpindi city in Punjab. According to a spokesman, the terrorists had planned suicide attacks on the Saddar Bairuni Police Station, Rawalpindi District Courts and St. Paul’s Church.

Further, SFs recovered suicide vests/material used in making suicide jackets on at least 20 occasions.  A total of 11 fabricated suicide vests were recovered during these raids.

Indeed, TTP, which has been responsible for most of the suicide attacks in 2023 [of the 25 attacks in 2023, 12 have been claimed: nine by TTP, one each by the Balochistan Liberation Front, Islamic State and TJP].

In December 2022, while announcing its new appointments, TTP divided the organization into various ‘ministries’, including ‘defense’. The ‘ministry of defense’, headed by Mufti Muzahim, who is on the United States Department’s list of designated terrorists, included a ‘Special Istishadi Force’ — a squadron of suicide bombers. The formation of the suicide squadron is now evidently bearing fruit.

More recently, on July 2, 2023, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) announced that it would attack Christians and churches in Pakistan, in retaliation to the Quran burning incident in Sweden, and declared that it would work with other like-minded groups in the region to carry out such attacks, including suicide attacks. LeJ ‘spokesperson’ Naseer Raisani threatened, "no Church or a Christian will remain safe in Pakistan." Significantly, on June 28, Salwan Momika, a 37-year-old Iraqi refugee in Sweden burned pages of a Quran in front of Stockholm’s largest mosque, during the Islamic Eid al-Adha festival.

Pakistan is currently passing through a protracted socio-political-economic upheaval, with very little hope of normalcy being restored in the near term. Such a situation can only feed the assembly line of ‘willing martyrs’, and a surge in suicide bombings is likely. This can only augment the already distressing statistics of overall terrorist violence in the country, which has already recorded 894 fatalities in the current year, with another almost four months still to go.        

INDIA

Ineffective Red Revival
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 30-31, 2023, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres killed a policeman, Budhram Avalam, slitting his throat in Duvalipara village under Gangaloor Police Station limits in the Bijapur District of Chhattisgarh. Assistant Superintendent of Police (ASP) Chandrakant Gowarna, confirming the incident, disclosed,

On August 15, 2023, two Jharkhand Jaguar Force personnel, Sub-Inspector Amit Tiwari and Constable Gautam Kumar, were killed by Maoists in a forest area between Tumbahaka and Sarjomburu villages under Tonto Police Station limits in the West Singhbhum District of Jharkhand. The policemen were killed when the Maoists opened fire on a joint team of the Security Forces (SFs) which had launched a search operation in the area. Though the SFs retaliated, no Maoist casualty was reported. 

On August 11, 2023, one Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) trooper was killed and another was injured when the Maoists opened fire in a forest in the Tonto area near Husipi village under Goilkera Police Station limits in the West Singhbhum District of Jharkhand.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 23 SF personnel have lost their lives while fighting the Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) in the current year, so far (data till September 3). On the other hand, the SFs have killed 37 Naxalites, yielding a SF:Maoist kill ratio of 1:1.6 in the current year.  During the corresponding period in 2022, this ratio stood at 1:3.25 (12 SF personnel, 39 Naxalites killed). Through 2022, this ratio worked out at 1:4.46.

A closer look at the data suggests that, though the SFs have maintained a positive kill ratio since 2011, the 2023 ratio is the worst (from the SF perspective) since 2014. The SF: Maoist kill ratio was 1:1.26 in 2014, 1:1.96 in 2015, 1:4.03 in 2016, 1:2 in 2017, 1:3.16 in 2018, 1:2.8 in 2019, 1:3.04 in 2020, 1:2.5 in 2021. Since 2000, the SF:Maoist kill ratio has been in favor of the Maoists only thrice: 2007 (1.2:1); 2009 (1.01:1); and 2010(1.007:1). The overall kill ratio, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in India, stands in favor of the SFs at 1:1.61.

In terms of absolute numbers, the SF personnel killed in 2023 (23) has already crossed the total for 2022 (15), with almost four months still to go in the current year. The 2022 SF tally was the lowest in a year since 2000, when there were 40 fatalities in this category.

Though the kind of losses the Maoists have suffered over the years and the SF consolidation on the ground, make their task of a rebel revival quite difficult, the 2023 SF:Maoist kill ratio may raise Maoist morale. On August 1, 2023, Union Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai informed the Lok Sabha (Lower house of Parliament) that LWE-linked violent incidents and resultant deaths across the country had reduced by 77 percent and 90 per cent, respectively, in 2022 as compared with 2010. The improved scenario was also reflected in the number of districts reporting violence, which had dropped from 96 in 2010 to 45 in 2022.

Indeed, as SAIR noted earlier, in their effort to revive their failing movement, the Maoists have increased their crusade against assumed ‘police informers’, and have acted harshly to eliminate purported ‘infiltrators’ or ‘emissaries’.  Their increased brutality is reflected in at least nine incidents of hacking and throat-slitting in 2023, compared to six such incidents through 2022. A total of 40 civilians have already been killed in the current year, in addition to 52 in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Maoists have triggered at least 39 blasts, killed at least 21 persons, and injured another 37 in 2023, compared to 32 such explosions, which killed at least six persons and injured another 27, through 2022. The Maoists carried out one rocket attack in 2023, while no such incident was recorded in 2022. The last such incident was recorded in 2019, when around 100 Maoists used light machine guns (LMG) and rocket launchers in retaliation against a joint operation launched by SFs in the Maniyara Forest area, along the borders of Munger and Lakhisarai Districts in Bihar, on October 13, 2019.

On August 2-3, 2023, the CPI-Maoist organised a massive public meeting on the borders of Dandakaranya and Telangana as part of the Maoist ‘Martyrs Week’, from July 28 to August 3. In a statement released to the media in the Bhadradri Kothagudem District of Telangana on August 5, Maoist Telangana State Committee ‘spokesperson’ Jagan and Dakshin Bastar Division Committee ‘secretary’ Gangal declared that people from three panchayats (village level local self-government institutions) of the ‘Janatana Sarkar’ (people’s government of the Maoists) participated in the meeting ‘voluntarily’. A memorial built in honour of deceased Maoist leader Katakam Sudarshan aka Anand, was inaugurated during the meeting. Cultural programmes by Chaitanya Natya Manch (CNM) and Jana Natya Mandali (JNM), cultural wings of the Maoists, were organised for two days. The families of Maoist ‘martyrs’ were introduced to the public.

The Maoists have been battered in their areas of erstwhile dominance, but remain committed to their purpose, making dogged efforts to stage a revival. Sustained SF pressure must deny even symbolic victories to the rebels, even as the SFs continue to consolidate the gains of the past years.