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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 18, No. 19, November 4, 2019
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

ASSESSMENT

  • INDIA: Maoists: Failing Ventures- Deepak Kumar Nayak
  • AFGHANISTAN: Endangered Health- Sanchita Bhattacharya


INDIA

 

    Print

Maoists: Failing Ventures
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In a successful operation conducted by the Security Forces (SFs) against the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), in Kerala, SFs killed at least four Maoist cadres in two successive encounters in a forested area in Manjakkatty near Agali town under the Attappady Taluk (revenue sub-division) in the Palakkad District of Kerala on October 28-29, 2019. According to the Police, two units of the 'Thunderbolts' - the commando wing of the India Reserve Battalion (IRB), an elite anti-Maoist formation, were on routine combing operations in the area, when a seven-member Maoist squad, the Bhavani Dalam (armed squad) of the People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) of CPI-Maoist, opened fire at them. Police recovered four fire arms including an AK-47 rifle from the encounter site. The four slain Maoists were identified as Karthik aka Karthick aka Karthi, Rema, Aravind aka Suresh and Manivasagam aka Manivannan. Knowingly, of the four Maoists, Manivasagam, the leader of the Bhavani Dalam, was the CPI-Maoist State 'secretary' in Tamil Nadu before the formation of the Western Ghats Special Zonal Committee (WGSZC).

Earlier, in a combing operation on March 6, 2019, a CPI-Maoist leader identified as C.P. Jaleel was killed in an encounter between the Maoists and the Thunderbolts Force near a private resort at Lakkidi, located near the forested locality of Vythiri in Wayanad District. Two Police officers were also injured during the encounter. Police and the Thunderbolts were camping in the area as they received information that the Maoists were likely to arrive there. As a group of five armed Maoists reached near the resort, an encounter started, and gunfire continued till the early hours of March 7, 2019. Jaleel's body was recovered near the resort after the encounter.

These are the three incidents of Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked killings in the Kerala-Karnataka- Tamil Nadu (KKT) tri-junction, since the beginning of the current year (data till November 3, 2019). Significantly, there were no such killings through 2018 or 2017. The last such killing reported in the area was on November 24, 2016, in which Kuppu Devaraj aka Shanker, a senior CPI-Maoist leader and 'central committee' member and Ajitha aka Latha aka Meera, a woman leader, were killed in an encounter with the Kerala Police, inside the Padukka Forests in the Nilambur Forest Range in Malappuram District.

Since March 6, 2000, when the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) started compiling data on Naxalism [Left Wing Extremism, LWE]-linked violence in these three States (Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) constituting the KKT tri-junction, has resulted in 46 fatalities in 26 incidents of killing, (eight civilians, nine SFs, and 29 LWEs). However, the KKT tri-junction accounted for a miniscule 0.43 per cent of total Maoist-linked fatalities recorded across India during this period (All-India fatalities at 10,483, including 3,752 civilians, 2,564 SF personnel, 3,911 Maoists; and 256 not specified; data till November 3, 2019).

Significantly, the SF: Maoist kill ratio in the KKT tri-junction has been overwhelmingly in favour of SFs, at 1:3.22.

According to a November 24, 2013, report, the rebels are setting up a base in the tri-junction area, which falls between Wayanad and Kannur Districts of Kerala; Mysore, Chamarajanagar and Kodagu Districts in Karnataka; and The Nilgiris District of Tamil Nadu. Wayanad (Kerala) and The Nilgiris (Tamil Nadu) are the only two Districts which share borders with these three States. The remaining LWE-affected Districts of these three States share borders with these two Districts.

The report also indicated that the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) had sent advisories to the State Governments concerned and asked them to take necessary preventive measures to foil any efforts by the Maoists to start their activities in their areas. The advisor observed:

It is imperative at this juncture that all efforts be focused to check the activities of the outfit in the initial stage. If necessary, a joint police operation of the three States may be conducted to maintain the dominance of the administration and thwart any attempt by CPI (Maoist) to build their hideouts or organisation at this strategic trijunction.

According to a December 25, 2018, report, the Maoists are expanding in this region because of three principal reasons:

  • The nature of area that the rebels are exploiting – places which have the least Government penetration and, consequently, maximum dissatisfaction against the State.
  • The Maoist ‘division’ working specifically on this region is being squeezed by SFs on all sides in the Bastar area of Chhattisgarh and finds safe haven in the KKT tri-junction.
  • The unexplored forest areas in the tri-junction region are an attractive prospect for the Maoists to set up bases. SFs have little knowledge of the topography of the area, and this has facilitated rapid Maoist expansion here.

A December 17, 2018, report suggested that intelligence shared by Police departments of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka with central agencies indicated that the Maoists are getting familiarised and trained according to the terrain. Arms training is regularly undertaken in the dense Wayanad Forest. Intelligence reports indicate that, due to frequent operations by Anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] Forces and the Special Task Forces (STFs) of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the Maoists were forced to flee towards the jungle areas of Kerala. However, "But for Kerala, combing operation is new to them and requires assistance. Kerala has vast jungle areas that are left unexplored."

Interestingly, incidents of killing have taken place in Wayanad and Palakkad, which have been included in the revised list of Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)-affected Districts in the country covered under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, by UMHA on April 16, 2018. Though the number of LWE-affected Districts had decreased from 126 in 10 States to 90 in 11 States, three Districts (Malappuram, Palakkad and Wayanad) from Kerala have been added for the first time to the revised list. There is no District from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu listed in the UMHA's current list of 90 District in 11 States.

LWE violence has been recorded only in Kerala and not in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, though the three States are included in the KKT tri-junction. Importantly, the Maoists had merged with the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist - Naxalbari (CPI-ML-Naxalbari), under the CPI-Maoist banner, on May 1, 2014, with the aim of securing a foothold in the KKT tri-junction area. According to official data disclosed by then Union Minister of State (MoS) for Home Affairs Hansraj Gangaram Ahir, Kerala has accounted for 23 incidents of Maoist-related violence since 2014: eight in 2014, 10 in 2015, five in 2016, and none in 2017 (data till December 15, 2017). Ahir further disclosed that no violence had been reported in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu since 2014. This is confirmed by violence data recorded by SATP.

On July 2, 2019, UMHA, directed Central Forces and State Police personnel deployed in LWE-hit areas to make a decisive push to tackle CPI-Maoist in the limited geographical areas to which they had retreated in the wake of their shrinking influence over the past five years. This includes the KKT tri-junction, where the Maoists are trying to set up bases.

In an earlier annual assessment of LWE activities, by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), it was mentioned that there are at least 16 Naxalite front organisations that double up as human rights organisations in the KKT region. Intelligence agencies also disclosed that there are around 80 Naxalites operating in the Western Ghats region, who frequently move across the KKT region. These cadres were mostly confined to Kerala, after Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, put the heat on them.

The Maoist threat is far from over. It is, consequently, imperative that the political and security establishments of the three States controlling the KKT tri-junction keep a constant vigil on the sustained Maoist efforts to spread their influence in this strategic region.


AFGHANISTAN

    Print

Endangered Health
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 11, 2019, a doctor, identified as Mohammad Ali, was assassinated by Taliban terrorists in the Payencha region of Dolina District in Afghanistan’s Ghor Province. Taliban terrorists have been repeatedly targeting health workers, including doctors and nurses, as well as medical facilities across Afghanistan. Facing constant threat, intimidation and harassment from the Taliban, several healthcare practitioners have resigned and health centres have been shut down, depriving civilians of access to healthcare.

Some of the recent incidents targeting healthcare practitioners include:

September 19, 2019: At least 20 people died after a truck packed with explosives was detonated by the Taliban outside a hospital at Qalat in the Qalat District of Zabul Province. It was the main health facility of the Province.

July 17, 2019: The Swedish Committee for Afghanistan (SCA) stated, “The Taliban forced SCA to close 42 out of 77 health facilities in six out of nine districts of Wardak Province so far, and due to this closure, an estimated number of over 5,700 patients are affected on daily basis.”

May 25, 2019: A bomb exploded outside a clinic in the Jalalabad city, provincial capital of Nangarhar, wounding six people, including women and children.

April 4, 2019: A bombing at a clinic in Puli Khumri, the provincial capital of Baghlan, killed a doctor and wounded 18 others.

Data compiled from the 2011-2018 Annual Reports of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and Quarterly Report of October 2019, documents 467 attacks on health facilities and workers. However, there have also been dozens of unreported incidents of attack, kidnapping, intimidation and assault on healthcare practitioners, and the actual incidence would be much higher. An August 29, 2018, report quoted Dr David Lai, Afghanistan Health Cluster Coordinator, under the OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), stating, “There are many incidences of attack on healthcare that are currently not reported. We need to have good information to address the scope of the problem in this country.”

Years

Incidents of Attacks on Healthcare Practitioners and Health Facilities

2011

10

2012

21

2013

32

2014

47

2015

63

2016

119

2017

75

2018

62

2019 (till June 30)

38

Total

467
Source: 2011-2018: UNAMA Annual Reports; 2019: UNAMA Quarterly Report

 

Attacks on healthcare facilities during armed violence and internal disturbances tend to fall into four main categories. The first is the deliberate targeting of such places to gain military advantage by depriving opponents and those perceived to support them of medical assistance for injuries sustained. The second category of attack is also deliberate, but in this case for political, religious or ethnic reasons. The third type of attack is unintentional bombardment or shelling – “collateral damage” from a missile or mortar aimed at a military target. The fourth and perhaps most common form of violence committed against healthcare facilities is the looting of drugs and medical equipment.

Interestingly, the Taliban’s reason for attacking health facilities and medical staff is to control the hospitals which fall within their areas of dominance. As Health Ministry spokesman, Wahidullah Majroh, stated, (as reported on September 27, 2017), the Taliban’s intention is to vet surgeons and other medical staff who treat wounded Taliban fighters. Unsurprisingly, Taliban militants have been demanding control over health facilities in their areas of dominance.

According to the quarterly report released on January 30, 2019, by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), as of October 22, 2018, there were a total of 74 Districts under Government control and another 145 under its influence, as against 12 under insurgent control and 38 under their influence. The number of contested Districts was 138. Afghanistan has a total of 407 Districts.

Another reason behind the Taliban’s targeting of health service providers is their (Taliban) requirement to have certificates from doctors for their inmates in jail for their release on grounds of illness. Taliban leaders exert pressure on doctors to sign relatively healthy prisoners (Taliban cadres) out of jail, so they could return to fighting. In one such incident, on May 5, 2018, Dr. Mohammad Haqmal was abducted and tortured by Taliban for several days because he refused to follow Taliban dictates. Later he was given asylum in the UK, as reported on May 23, 2019.

The Taliban has also regularly attacked polio vaccination staff, accusing them of collecting intelligence to target militant leaders with drones and other air strikes. In June 2019, Taliban’s military commission alleged that internationally-backed health workers collected information used to find and kill Taliban leaders in Special Forces’ raids and air strikes. The insurgents want vaccinators to stop delivering polio drops door-to-door, and instead to administer vaccines from a central point, such as a village mosque.

Earlier, in October 2017 the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced that it would "drastically" reduce its presence in the country after seven of its employees were killed. On February 8, 2017, six employees were killed at an undisclosed location in Jowzjan Province. And later, on September 11, 2017, another aid worker was killed in Mazar-e-Sharif, the provincial capital of Balkh. The decision by the charity, which has been working in Afghanistan for over three decades, underlined the growing dangers for aid workers. The Taliban, in the meantime, accused the ICRC of "suspicious" activities during vaccination campaigns and of failing to monitor conditions in Afghan jails and to provide medical aid to Taliban prisoners.

According to the Afghanistan Crises Situation Reports of the World Health Organization (WHO), between January 2015 and July 2019, at least 241 health facilities were closed due to the ongoing violence in the country. 27 facilities were closed in 2015; 29 in 2016; 42 each in 2017 and 2018 and 101 till July 2019. The trend indicates a steady increase in the shutting down of medical and health facilities. Further, underlining the dire scenario of health expenditure in the country, the World Bank report, Afghanistan: Public Expenditure Update, dated July 2019, noted that the total budgeted health expenditure in Afghanistan was around 1.5 per cent of GDP (USD 8 per capita), whereas the WHO benchmark is 4-5 per cent of GDP or USD 86 per capita.

Ironically, as reported on May 25, 2019, Abdullah Abdullah, the Chief Executive of Afghanistan in an address to healthcare providers stated, "With what we spend on a single day of war, we could build a state-of-the-art hospital." An October 28, 2019, report notes that, in a country of more than 38.33 million, Afghanistan has just 150 hospitals, including regional, district, and special military hospitals, and a mere three doctors per 10,000 people. Doctors and medical staff suffer from long working hours, low wages and lack of infrastructural support. Often, due to lack of governmental assistance, doctors and nurses become de facto engineers, repairing vital solar power systems, fixing plumbing, and performing a vast range of other tasks, outside their job description. The result is a steady stream of doctors and staff quitting their jobs.

Even after the US has spent nearly USD 877 billion (until March 2019) in its fight against terror in Afghanistan over the past 18 years, the Taliban grows more confident of returning to power. Afghanistan, once again, stands at the crossroads of history, and no one knows what is coming. Sustained insecurity and violence continue to have a tremendous impact on health care in the country. Decades of insecurity have created a physical and mental health catastrophe, even as health workers are exposed to threats and actual violence.

 
NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
October 28 - November 3, 2019

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Assamr

0
0
2
2

Jammu and Kashmir

7
0
1
8

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Jharkhand

0
0
1
1

Kerala

0
0
4
4

Odisha

1
0
0
1

INDIA (Total)

8
0
8
16
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.

 


AFGHANISTAN

Peace Talks should be inclusive, says Chief Executive Abdullah: Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah on October 25, in an interview with CNN, stressed the need for a wider delegation to negotiate with the Taliban. "There has been a pause in the talks and there have been efforts underway recently among the allies and partners of Afghanistan … we believe that the delegation should be inclusive not only with the government but the other political parties and political leaders and different walks of life should be represented in that delegation," Abdullah said. Tolo News, November 2, 2019.


BANGLADESH

Bangladesh chapter of IS welcomes new leader of IS: According to Site Intel Group members of the suspected Bangladesh chapter of Islamic States (IS) welcomed the new leader of IS, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Quraishi, successor of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. A twitter message of Site Intel Group reads: "IS Fighters in Bangladesh Pledge to New Group 'Caliph' Abu Ibrahim.. The Independent, November 4, 2019.  

Government is soon going to ban Allahar Dal, says Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal: Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal on November 3 said the Government is soon going to ban the 'Allahar Dal' outfit as part of its move to curb militancy in the country. "Members of Allahar Dal were conducting their activities by distributing leaflets. That's why we are going to black-list it. Our government has zero tolerance against terrorism and militancy," the Minister told. The Independent, November 4, 2019.  

INDIA

LeT and JeM still a threat to India, according to US State Department's 'Country Reports on Terrorism 2018'': The US State Department's 'Country Reports on Terrorism 2018', published on November 1 said the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) continued to be a threat to India. The report added that the Pakistani authorities have failed to uniformly implement the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Action Plan on money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regimes and the UN sanctions related to designated entities and individuals. The New Indian Express, November 4, 2019.

Manipur witnessed most number of insurgency related violence in 2018 across northeast, states UMHA report: According to Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), Manipur witnessed most insurgency related violence in 2018 across northeast region. A total of 127 violent incidents were reported in Manipur in 2018, while the number of such incidents was 252 in the entire North-eastern region. In 2018, however, the state witnessed a decline in insurgency-related incidents by 24 per cent compared to 167 in 2017, and civilian deaths went down from 23 in 2017 to 8 in 2018. Northeast Today, November 3, 2019.

NSCN-IM agrees to sign peace accord: On October 31 the deadlock of Naga peace talks was broken with National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) agreeing to sign deal with Government of India (GoI). According to an official, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to make 'final declaration' during his scheduled visit to Nagaland in December 2019. The source also added that final declaration will be made shortly after revisiting the agreed points. NSCN-IM stated that the talks concluded "in line with the frame work agreem. Times of India, November 1, 2019.

Jammu and Kashmir officially bifurcated into UTs of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh: The new UTs of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh formally came into existence 86 days after Parliament abrogated special status of the State under Article 370 and passed J&K Re-Organization Act. The Union Home Ministry in a notification issued at midnight tonight replaced the State of J-K with the "Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir" and announced omission of "permanent residents or hereditary state subjects". Daily Excelsior, October 31, 2019.

Internal security situation in the country remained under control during 2018, says UMHA annual report: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) annual report 2018-19 says that the internal security situation in the country remained under control during 2018 and UMHA through Central agencies trained 2,556 officers from state police forces in intelligence collection in terror cases. The officers were trained in 74 training programmes conducted between January 1, 2018 and March 31, 2019. The report further mentioned that the principal focus of the government on this front had been on countering terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, improving the security scenario in the north-eastern states, combating Left Wing Extremism or Maoism, and maintaining peace in the hinterland of the country. The New Indian Express, October 30, 2019.

3,749 persons killed in Maoist violence in 10 States in nine years, says MHA report: Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) in its Annual Report for 2018-19 said, as many as 3,749 people lost their lives in 10,660 incidents of Maoist violence in 10 states since 2010. In the report, the Ministry said the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) continues to be the most potent among various Left Wing Extremist [LWE] outfits in the country and responsible for more than 88 per cent of the total violent incidents and resultant deaths. "Amidst increasing reverses, the CPI-Maoist has been making efforts to expand to new areas along the inter-State borders without any significant success," the report said. The Pioneer , October 30, 2019.

NEPAL

Ministry of Law and Justice is preparing to finalise amendment bill on Transnational Justice Law, says report: The Ministry of Law and Justice is preparing to gather suggestions from the concerned parties to finalise the amendment bill Transnational Justice Law. According to the Ministry, the Ministry is preparing to invite 80 people, including conflict victims, representatives of the local and provincial governments, representatives from the security forces, human rights defenders, lawyers and journalists. Kathmandu Post , November 1, 2019.

PAKISTAN

33 journalists killed in Pakistan in past six years, says report': According to Freedom Network, at least 33 journalists were murdered for their journalism work in Pakistan during the past six years, including seven in the past one year (November 2018 to October 2019) alone. The new report titled '100% Impunity for Killers, 0% Justice for Pakistan's Murdered Journalists: Crime and Punishment in Pakistan's Journalism World' issued a 'Pakistan Impunity Scorecard' which reveals frightening statistics. The report is released ahead of the International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists observed by the United Nations on November 2 every year. Dawn, November 1, 2019.

Supreme Court recommends Parliament to define word 'terrorism': The Supreme Court on October 30 recommended the parliament to redefine the word 'terrorism' while focusing on violent activities aimed at achieving political, ideological or religious objectives. A 59-page judgement authored by Chief Justice of Pakistan Asif Saeed Khosa states that the definition of 'terrorism' contained in Section 6 of the Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997 is "too wide and the same includes so many actions, designs and purposes which have no nexus with the generally recognized concept of what terrorism is". Pakistan Today , October 31, 2019.

SRI LANKA

President Maithripala Sirisena rejects PSC report on Easter Sunday Attacks: On October 29, President Maithripala Sirisena in a cabinet meeting has reportedly declined to accept the report on Easter Sunday carnage compiled by the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC). The PSC report that highlighted the lapses of security intelligence and Government leaders had been submitted in the Parliament last week. Sources reveal that the President while rejecting the report asked the cabinet not to record it and instead focus on highlighted security lapses. Daily Mirror, October 30, 2019.

 
 
For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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