South Asia Terrorism Portal
The Deep State Strikes- Again Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
At least 25 Sikh worshipers were killed and more than eight were wounded when four suicide attackers stormed the 400-year old Gurudwara Har Rai Sahib in the Shorbazar area of Kabul, Afghanistan, on March 25, 2020. The attackers reportedly took another 80 worshippers hostage. The six-hour-long siege of the complex ended when Afghanistan Security Forces, aided by foreign troops, killed all the attackers and rescued the hostages. Reports indicate that there were around 200 worshippers inside the complex at the time of the attack. The attack was followed by another explosion near the crematorium where the dead were being cremated on March 26. Th next day, mines were found at the entrance of the Gurdwara complex.
Previously, the worst attack targeting religious minorities (Sikhs and Hindus) in Afghanistan had taken place on July 1, 2018, when a suicide bomber had killed at least 19 people (17 of them Sikhs and Hindus) and injured another 20 at Mukhaberat Square in the Jalalabad District of Nangarhar Province. The victims were travelling in a vehicle to meet President Ashraf Ghani, who was visiting Nangarhar Province, when the bomber struck. One of the dead in that incident included Awtar Singh Khalsa, the only Sikh candidate who had planned to contest the October 20, 2018, Parliamentary Elections.
The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) in its first statement after the March 25, 2020, attack claimed responsibility. In a second statement, IS-KP stated that the attack was ‘revenge for Kashmir’. Incidentally, the IS-KP had claimed the July 1, 2018, attack as well.
The Taliban, meanwhile, outrightly rejected any role in the attack.
The Afghanistan Government, however, is reported to have maintained that the attack was the handiwork of the Haqqani Network. It is pertinent to recall here that Pakistan’s former Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, had referred to the Haqqani Network as a “strategic asset”. Significantly, former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, on September 21, 2011, had accused Pakistan of exporting violent extremism in Afghanistan through proxies, and described the Haqqani Network as a “veritable arm” of the ISI.
These assertions are not unfounded.
According to various media reports, intelligence agencies have come across information that Pakistan’s external intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), engineered the entire operation with help of the Haqqani Network and the elements of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). According to Indian intelligence, intelligence, the Operation was code-named Blackstar.
Hussain Ehsani, a Kabul-based researcher supported this view, noting,
Reports indicate that the main target was the Indian Embassy in Kabul and the Consulate at Jalalabad. As the security around these areas had been beefed up, the Gurdwara was attacked. It is useful to recall here that a report in December 2019 had stated that Indian intelligence had come across information that ISI was planning to help terror outfits carry out vehicle borne suicide attacks on Indian missions in Afghanistan.
The December 2019 report moreover, stated that the ISI had given LeT responsibility to partner with the IS-KP to carry out the attacks. Corroborating these linkages, Amrullah Saleh, a former head of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security, had argued, in a transparent reference to Pakistan, "the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan is not genuine… it is an intelligence game played by some of our neighbors".
The possibility of an IS-KP involvement in the attack, consequently, does not conflict the role of the Pakistani establishment in the attack.
The European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS), an EU accredited independent think tank and policy research institution, thus observed,
There is close association between the Sikhs and Hindus in Afghanistan. In January 2015, The Wall Street Journal had noted, “Afghanistan’s Sikhs and Hindus stay in small, tight-knit communities and participate in many of the same religious rituals held in a temple both faiths use.”
The ISI considers the Sikhs and the Hindus in Afghanistan as inimical to its interest. Consequently, ISI-backed terror groups as well as Islamist extremists within the country have long targeted these communities
According to the US Department of State's 2019 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Afghanistan,
The 2018 edition of the report had noted,
After the March 25 attack, Afghanistan's lone Sikh member of Parliament, Narinder Singh Khalsa, stated,
A final round of the exodus is evidently imminent. According to estimates, there were around 250,000 Sikhs and Hindus in Afghanistan in 1992.
Apart from targeting the Hindu and Sikh religious minorities, who have stronger bonds with India, Pakistan has also used its proxy terrorist formations to attack Indian targets in Afghanistan. According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management, Pakistan-backed terror formations were found involved in at least 22 terror attacks on Indian targets in Afghanistan since 2003. These attacks resulted in death of 144 persons. The most prominent of these attacks included:
May 13, 2015: There were four Indians among 14 persons killed in an attack carried out by terrorists at the Park Palace Guest House in Kabul's Kolola Pushta area. Agencies believed that the then Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan, Amar Sinha, was the prime target of the attack. "It was known that the Indian envoy would be visiting the guesthouse on Wednesday evening... it appears the Taliban had accordingly planned the siege," an unnamed senior intelligence officer stated.
February 26, 2010: The Taliban carried out coordinated suicide attacks at two hotels in Kabul, killing at least nine Indians, including two Major-rank Army officers. At least 10 others, including five Indian Army officers, were injured in the strike that killed eight others, including locals and nationals from other countries. The bombers, believed to be three in number, struck at the guest houses, particularly at Park Residence, rented out by the Indian Embassy for its staffers and those linked to India’s developmental work in Afghanistan.
October 8, 2009: Targeting the Indian embassy in Kabul for the second time, a Taliban suicide bomber blew up an explosives-laden car outside the mission, killing 17 persons and injuring over 80, including three Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) soldiers. The embassy staff, however, was unhurt.
July 7, 2008: A suicide attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul killed 66 persons, including two senior diplomats – then Political Counsellor V. Venkateswara Rao and Defence Adviser Brigadier Ravi Datt Mehta – as well as ITBP staffers Ajai Pathaniya and Roop Singh.
With the US-Taliban agreement setting the stage for a final flight of US Forces from Afghanistan, it is imperative for New Delhi to formulate effective strategies to deal with the looming inevitability of a Taliban comeback in Afghanistan and a visible surge in Pakistan’s influence in the country, as well as a release of terrorist cadres for potential redeployment in Jammu & Kashmir, as well as in the wider Indian theatre. Crucially, India’s huge economic investments in Afghanistan and decades-long efforts to provide support and stability to the Kabul regime appear destined to collapse in the absence of an urgent and unlikely shift in US and international policy with regard to the Taliban and the stabilization project in Afghanistan.
Manipur: Fragile Containment Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 22, 2020, unidentified militants lobbed a grenade at a Border Security Post (BSF) post located at Wangjing Tekcham Leikai in Thoubal District. There was no report of any causality in the incident.
On March 13, 2020, a Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) militant was killed in a factional clash with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) at Longchai village in Tamenglong District.
On January 8, 2020, a bullet ridden body of a non-local, identified as Nilesh Baburao Jadhav, was recovered from Terapokpi Chingdol in Imphal West District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), two fatalities have been recorded in the state since the beginning of 2020 (data till March 29, 2020).
Through 2019 the State registered nine insurgency-linked fatalities (four civilians and five militants) as against 23 [seven civilians, seven Security Force (SF) personnel, and nine militants] recorded in 2018. Total fatalities thus saw a decline of 60.86 per cent in 2019 as compared to 2018. Overall fatalities in the State in 2019 were the lowest since 1992. A previous low of 23 was recorded in 2018. At the peak of insurgent violence in 1997, the State registered 495 fatalities.
Significantly, fatalities 2019 in all categories (civilians, SFs and militants) were the lowest recorded in single year since 1992. The number of civilians killed, at four, was the lowest since seven such fatalities were recorded in 2018. At peak, 266 civilians were killed in 1993.
For the first time since 1992, no fatality was recorded in the SF category in 2019. A low of six fatalities in this category was recorded twice: in 2010 and 2013. At peak, 111 SF personnel were killed in 1997.
The number of militants killed (5) in 2019 was also the lowest in any year since 1992. A previous low of eight was recorded in 2016. The peak fatality in this category was in 2008, when 341 militants were killed. Meanwhile, SFs continued to operate against the insurgents, leading to the arrest of 259 militants in 2019, adding to the 172 arrested in 2018.
Incidents of killing also registered a steep decline. Seven incidents of insurgency-related killing were recorded in 2019, as compared to 22 such incidents in 2018.
The geographical area of insurgent activity also shrank. Incidents of killing were reported from five of the State’s 16 Districts in 2019: Kangpokpi (three fatalities in two incidents), Pherzawl (two fatalities in one incident), Tengnoupal (two fatalities in one incident), Noney (one fatality in one incident), and Bishnupur (one fatality in one incident). Incidents of killing were reported from eight Districts in 2018: Noney (seven fatalities in seven incidents), Imphal West (five fatalities in five incidents), Chandel (three fatalities in three incidents), Churachandpur (two fatalities in two incidents), Kangpokpi (two fatalities in two incidents), Thoubal (one incident with one fatality), Tengnoupal (one incident with one fatality), and Kamjong (one incident with one fatality).
Despite the decline in violence, areas of concern persist, such as extortion and abduction by militants.
According to the SATP database, three extortion cases were reported in 2019, as compared to two in 2018 (such incidents tend to go grossly under-reported, as individuals under threat incline to reach private settlements with the militant groups). There are several national projects under construction in the State and the private companies that execute these projects routinely targeted for extortion. Most prominent amongst them is the INR125.24 billion Jiribam-Imphal Railway Project that will connect State Capital Imphal to rest of India. A Noney District resident, who received compensation in lieu of his land acquired for the project, in an interview to The Wire, disclosed that, out of the money he had received, he had to pay 20-30 per cent to ‘underground groups’. The report mentions the presence of NSCN-IM, ZUF, Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA) and Kuki National Front (KNF) in the area.
The SATP database shows that 16 persons (10 incidents) were abducted in 2019 in addition to 24 persons (in 12 incidents) abducted in 2018. As with extortion, abduction cases most likely are a fraction of the actual incidents in the State.
Moreover, violence continues to affect small pockets of the Hill Areas. Out of the five Districts from where killings were reported in 2019, four are Hill Districts, while one lies in the Valley. In 2018, out of the eight Districts from where killings were reported, six were Hill Districts (Noney, Chandel, Churachandpur, Kangpokpi, Tengnoupal and Kamjong), and two were Valley Districts (Imphal West and Thoubal). Manipur has a total of 16 Districts: 10 Hill Districts (Chandel, Tamenglong, Senapati, Ukhrul, Pherzawl, Noney, Tengnoupal, Kangpokpi, Kamjong and Churachandpur) and six Valley Districts (Bishnupur, Imphal East, Imphal West, Kakching, Thoubal, and Jiribam).
And the reason is simple. Talks with major militant formations representing Naga and Kuki communities residing in the Hills have not resulted in any final outcome. These groups include NSCN-IM, ZUF, KNO, and UPF.
The Hill Districts based militant groups - Kuki National Organisation (KNO), United People's Front (UPF), and NSCN-IM - are demanding ethnic homelands exclusive for the respective tribes that they claim to represent, often excluding other tribes inhabiting the common area, creating an atmosphere of deep distrust. At times, even local conflicts between neighbouring villages of different ethnicity are projected in community terms, leading to widespread violence. For instance, on March 16, 2020, some miscreants suspected to be from the Naga community set ablaze a jhum (slash and burn) cultivation of some Kuki villagers on ‘disputed’ land in the Kamjong District. In retaliation, Kukis set ablaze a Naga owned petrol station at Chassad and blocked a major road in the Sampui area. On March 17, Nagas from Kamjong village went to the site to clear the road, leading to a clash between the two sides during which over 50 houses were set ablaze. The Administration had to impose Section 144 (prohibiting assembly of four or more persons) in the area and curbs on internet usage throughout the State to contain the fallout.
Nevertheless, after the latest round of talks held between the Naga militant groups and Government of India (GoI), on an October 31, 2019, deadline, initially at least it appeared that the issues between NSCN-IM and GoI had been amicably resolved. However, increasingly it appears that this is not the case. On March 9, 2020, the emissary of the NSCN-IM collective leadership V.S. Atem in his meeting with Nagaland Governor R.N. Ravi conveyed,
Also, after the talks, on October 31, 2019, civil society groups based in Imphal Valley Districts [Bishnupur, Imphal East, Imphal West, Kakching, Thoubal, and Jiribam], fearing possible implications of GoI’s negotiations with NSCN-IM on Manipur’s territorial integrity, took to the streets. Understandably, on December 20, 2019, the Manipur Legislative Assembly reaffirmed the earlier adopted resolution No 121 to protect the territorial integrity of Manipur. Resolution 121, adopted on July 23, 2018, seeks an amendment to the present Article 3 of the Indian Constitution, incorporating the requirement of mandatory prior consent of the State Legislatures of affected states while forming a new State or changing boundaries or names of existing States.
Meanwhile, the Suspension of Operations (SoO) Agreement with the Kuki militant conglomerates KNO and the UPF, was extended on February 21, 2020. The SoO Agreement now will be valid till August 31, 2020. On June 25, 2019, in the seventh round of the ‘political dialogue’ between Kuki conglomerate (KNO, UPF) and the Governments (Union and State), there was a discussion on the creation of a Territorial Council for the community. KNO ‘spokesperson’ Seilen Haokip, observed, “To be precise we are doing a comparative study of the Bodo Territorial Council (BTC). Based on the BTC pattern, we are pushing with our demand for Territorial Council (TC) and trying to find a way to improve it (TC)”. Later, on November 23, 2019, GoI interlocutor for the Kuki talks, A.B. Mathur, stated, “Talks are under way. We are hoping to arrive at an agreement soon. We cannot put a timeline on it as it is a complex issue, and we are looking at the charter of demands the groups have placed before us.”
Valley-based major militant groups - United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Kanglei Yawaol Kanna Lup (KYKL) – present in Myanmar continue to benefit from the porous Indo-Myanmar border. A February 2020 report indicated the presence of a large number of militants in the southern zone of the Sagiang Division in Myanmar. The report mentioned the presence of UNLF with 3,000 cadres; PLA with 2,000; and around 1,000 cadres of KYKL in the zone. This is in spite of measures such as the 2015 surgical strikes by India and 2019 operations by Myanmar’s Tatmadaw, which forced these groups to shift deeper inside Myanmar territory.
Another potentially polarizing issue was the enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 (CAA 2019) facilitating citizenship to ‘illegal migrants’ from six non-Muslim minority communities – Hindus, Sikhs, Jain, Buddhist, Christians and Parsis – from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, after the approval of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) regime for the State, which automatically puts the State out of CAA purview, the agitating public has become calmer.
The outbreak of Novel Corona Virus 2019 (COVID-19) in India, with some early cases detected in Manipur, could severely undermine the State finances, as the lockdown restricts economic activities. This could potentially add to existing financial burdens of Manipur, leading to a diversion of the Government’s attention away from development projects, to meet the immediate public needs of food, essentials and emergency health services. A June 12, 2019, report mentions that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) banned all transaction of funds from the account of the Manipur Government due to a mounting overdraft, forcing the Government to freeze recruitment in all State Government Departments.
The outbreak of COVID-19 is, moreover, an unprecedented situation, the likely long-term impact of which will be visible in the coming months and years; intuitively, it is certain to impact the State Economy negatively in the immediate future.
As we witness continuous declines in violence in Manipur over the past few years, there is a need to actively address the Hill-Valley divide in the State. Sagacious political accommodation is needed to avoid ethnic tensions getting linked with the inevitable financial crisis, to undermine the relative peace that has been established. Active vigilance is required by the State and SFs to preempt or contain ethnic violence between the major Hill tribes, as there might be conflicting interests over emotive issues like land, with both sides trying to reach an agreement with the Government. Besides, the Valley-based outfits holed up in Myanmar can potentially strike at any time, to reclaim legitimacy, if there is a settlement with the Hill tribes that is not acceptable to Valley formations.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 23-29, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
PAKISTAN (Total)
25 civilians killed in terrorist attack on Sikh temple in Kabul Province: Unidentified militants attacked a Gurudwara (Sikh temple) killing at least 25 people in Shor Bazar area of Kabul in Kabul Province on March 25. The Afghan Security Forces responded and rescued at least 80 people who were caught in the temple. The Islamic State- Khorasan Province (IS-KP) claimed responsibility for the attack. The Khaama Press , March 26, 2020.
Prisoner exchange between Government and Taliban to begin on March 31: According to US special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, the exchange of prisoners between Afghan Government and Taliban will begin on March 31. Taliban's political office spokesman in Qatar, Suhail Shaheen, confirmed that the details of the release were discussed during a videoconference that the two parties to the conflict held with the participation of teams from the United States, Qatar and the International Committee of the Red Cross. Bakhtar News, March 29, 2020.
UNAMA calls for reduced violence in Afghanistan: United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) citing surge in civilian fatalities since the signing of February 2020 peace deal issued a statement urging all parties to further reduce levels of violence, protect civilians, and work towards a ceasefire. It stated that despite some de-escalation in hostilities following the end of February announcement for a reduction in violence, UNAMA continues to record conflict-related civilian casualties with more than 100 killed and many more injured in the March 1-25 time frame. Tolo News, March 29, 2020.
Afghan Government announces the name of 20 delegates for intra-Afghan peace talks with Taliban: The Afghan Government on March 25 released a list of 20 delegates intended to hold intra-Afghan peace talks with the Taliban. According to the Afghan government's list, the negotiating team will be led by Masoom Stanikzai, the former head of the National Directorate of Security (NDS), and will include 14 other men and five women. Tolo News, March 27, 2020.
U.S. announces cuts worth $1 billion in assistance to Afghanistan in response to the ongoing political impasse between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah: The United States (US) State Department announced that it is cutting $1 billion in economic assistance to Afghanistan in reaction to ongoing political impasse. According to a statement released by State Department, "The United States deeply regrets that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and former Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah have informed Secretary Pompeo that they have been unable to agree on an inclusive government that can meet the challenges of governance, peace, and security, and provide for the health and welfare of Afghan citizens". The Khaama Press, March 27, 2020.
BANGLADESH
BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia released from jail: Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia was released from jail on March 25. She was released after 25 months after landing in jail on February 8, 2018, in a graft case. The Government on March 24 announced that it has taken decision to release BNP Chairperson from jail on humanitarian grounds suspending her sentence for six months. The New Nation, March 27, 2020.
Neo-JMB is using female wing to recruit online, say CTTC officials: Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) officials on March 23 said that Neo-Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (Neo-JMB) is using female wing torecruit online. The CTTC unearthed the information after interrogating Shirina Khatun alias Tahsin Abdullah (23), the second-in-command of Neo-JMB's female wing. The Daily Star, March 27, 2020.
ED sought details of bank transactions carried out in PFI's name for money laundering investigation, says report: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has sought details of at least 15 bank transactions carried out by the Popular Front of India (PFI) as part of its money-laundering probe against a Kerala-based NGO. "It is suspected that PFI received foreign funds through multiple front organisations in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. These suspicious banking transactions (at least 15) are under the scanner of ED," a source said. The Asian Age, March 26, 2020.
We will uproot Naxals, says Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel: A day after the 17 security personnel were killed by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in Chhattisgarh, the Chief Minister (CM) of the State, Bhupesh Baghel on March 23 said that the Maoists will be uprooted from the State. The CM said, "Though we have suffered a massive loss, we will uproot the Naxals [Left Wing Extremists, LWE]. Our jawans (troopers) fought with immense bravery. I am very proud of them. They had sacrificed their lives while fighting. Their sacrifice will not go in vain. I would like to salute the spirit of our jawans". The Times Of India , March 24, 2020.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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