South Asia Terrorism Portal
Hope and Chaos S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On September 17, 2019, at least 26 people were killed and another 42 were wounded after a suicide bomber detonated his explosives at President Ashraf Ghani’s campaign rally in Charikar city, Parwan Province. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.
On July 28, 2019, 20 people were killed and another 50 were injured in a bomb attack that was followed by a gun battle at the office of former National Directorate of Security (NDS) chief and Vice-Presidential candidate Amrullah Saleh, in Kabul city.
Indeed, warning Afghans to keep away from election rallies and gatherings, in a message posted on its website on August 6, 2019, the Taliban stated, “To prevent losses, God forbid, from being incurred by our fellow compatriots, they must stay away from gatherings and rallies that could become potential targets.” The Taliban added that the Afghan elections did not hold any value and, referring to the 2014 Presidential Election asserted that these was mired in allegations of fraud and saw the U.S. broker a power-sharing deal between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah.
Afghanistan’s Presidential Elections are scheduled to be held on September 28, 2019.
Overall violence in Afghanistan has increased since August 6, 2019, the day the Taliban warned Afghans to keep away from election rallies and gatherings. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since August 6, 2019, at least 242 civilians, 42 Security Force (SF) personnel and 1,538 terrorists have been killed (data till September 22, 2019). In the corresponding period preceding the Taliban’s warning, there were 160 civilian fatalities, 33 SF and 1,412 terrorists. The number and intensity of suicide attacks also increased, from six incidents in which 109 persons were killed preceding the warning, to eight incidents in which 206 persons were killed.
In the meantime, on September 7, 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump called off peace negotiations with the Taliban, after the latter claimed responsibility for a car bombing in Kabul city on September 5, 2019, which killed 12 people, including an American soldier, and wounded 43. The group carried out the attack amid ongoing peace negotiations with the U.S. representatives in the Qatari capital of Doha. In a Twitter post, President Trump declared,
Trump was referring to a meeting with the Taliban leadership, secretly scheduled at Camp David on September 8, 2019.
With the lifting of the limited restraint exercised by their participation in the negotiation process with the US, the Taliban is likely to escalate violence further.
Not surprisingly, expressing the view that the current situation in the country was not suitable for the Presidential Election, Mohammad Ismail Khan, a prominent member of the Jamiat-e-Islami party, who served as Minister of Energy and Water in former President Hamid Karzai’s Government, observed, on September 12, 2019, that the country would be driven into a new crisis if the elections are held within the next two weeks. He added, moreover, that there was also the possibility of manipulating the elections.
However, on September 11, 2019, committing to hold free and fair elections in Afghanistan, Afghanistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Adela Raz said that Afghan Government is approaching the elections with a full and unprecedented commitment to ensure a transparent, free, credible and inclusive election.
On September 15, 2019, Independent Election Commission (IEC) officials announced that the delivery of election materials to 5,373 polling centres in 33 Provinces was complete. The officials also stated that over 72,000 security personnel had been deployed to provide security to the polling centres across the nation and 60,000 election observers had received credentials for the Presidential Election. However, as the date of Presidential Election approached, election observers lashed out at the Independent Election Commission (IEC) on September 16, 2019, over its failure to address their concerns regarding biometric identification devices. Humayoun Jarir, a member of the Committee for Political Parties and Political Movements stated, “I can say with confidence that the application which was supposed to be installed for identifying the photograph and the finger prints has not been installed in biometric devices and it is not connected with the main server.” Similarly, Sughra Saadat, spokeswoman for the Transparent Election Foundation of Afghanistan (TEFA) noted, “Only eleven days remain until elections. From a technical perspective, this is very little time to tackle the issue of preparing the servers. The Commission should have been prepared before, because now we have very little time, so it is difficult to deal with technical issues.” The IEC has dispatched more than 23,000 biometric devices to polling centres across the country.
Meanwhile, reaffirming North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s full support to Afghanistan, on September 14, 2019, the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg phoned President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and assured the alliance’s support to Afghanistan. Separately, affirming its commitment to doing everything possible within its mandated authority to support the IEC in an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned election that is credible, transparent and inclusive, United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Chief Tadamichi Yamamoto on September 16, 2019, observed “No one has the authority to disenfranchise Afghans who are registered to vote. Credible elections lie at the heart of any democracy, and the right to vote is in many ways a key symbol of the democratic progress made in Afghanistan over the last 18 years.” On September 17, 2019, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously extended the mandate of UNAMA until September 17, 2020.
The Afghanistan Government is investing great hope in the peaceful and successful conduct of elections. On September 14, 2019, Afghan Presidential spokesman Sediq Seddiqi observed that the Afghan Government will only consider making a "legitimate" peace with the Taliban after a national election in September: "Nothing will impede the presidential election from happening on September 28. The legitimacy of a peace deal with the Taliban cannot be achieved without elections."
The campaign for the Afghan Presidential Election kicked off on July 28, 2019, with 18 candidates, including President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, running for President. The campaign will conclude on September 25. The upcoming Presidential Election scheduled for September 28, will be the fourth election in Afghanistan following the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001. Based on the IEC’s timeline, preliminary results will be announced on October 19, 2019, and the final results will be announced on November 7, 2019.
IEC has been working day and night for the successful conduct of the September 28 Presidential Elections. For the moment, as elections offer the only peaceful mechanism for transfer of power and the only option out of war and insecurity in the country, the United Nations and other powers must readily support the efforts of the IEC to ensure that elections are credible and inclusive. Thereafter, only direct talks between Kabul and the Taliban offer the possibility of a political settlement, without the mischief of third parties engaging directly with the Taliban, even as the Taliban continues to engineer massive and indiscriminate terrorist attacks among the general population.
Volatile Border Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
An Army Major and a sepoy were killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in the Mohmand District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in Pakistan, on September 20, 2019. Major Adeel Shahid and Sepoy Faraz Hussain "fell victim to an IED planted by terrorists from across the border", the Director General of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) tweeted. The squad was supervising fencing work in an area "which carried [a] critical infiltration route", the ISPR added.
On September 14, 2019, three soldiers were killed and one sustained injures when militants opened fire from across the Pak-Afghan border on Pakistan Army troops who were busy in border fencing in the Dir District of KP.
On September 13, 2019, one soldier was killed when terrorists opened fired on a routine patrolling party of Security Forces near the Abba Khel area of Spinwam tehsil (revenue unit) in the North Waziristan District of KP. In the exchange of fire, two militants were also killed.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since September 15, 2013, when the first cross border attack was orchestrated by terrorists, there have been at least 108 such attacks in Pakistan from across the border, in which at least 293 Pakistani SF personnel and 74 civilians have been killed, while another 286 sustained injuries (data till September 22, 2019). Seven of these incidents, resulting in 22 deaths (20 SF personnel and two terrorists), have already been reported in 2019. In the worst incident of the year (in terms of fatalities) on July 27, 2019, six Army personnel were killed when terrorists from across the Afghanistan border opened fire on a border patrolling party near the Gurbaz area of North Waziristan District in KP. There were nine such attacks in 2018 (34 fatalities: 21 terrorists and 13 SF personnel); and 17 attacks in 2017 (56 fatalities: 38 terrirusts and 18 SF personnel).
The first militant attack from across the border reportedly took place on September 15, 2013. Major General Sanaullah Khan and Lieutenant Colonel Tauseef were killed, along with a soldier, Irfan Sattar, in an IED explosion near Pak-Afghan Border in the Upper Dir District of KP. The then Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ‘spokesman’ Shahidullah Shahid claimed responsibility for the attack.
In September 2005, Pakistan had announced, for the first time, its plans to build a 2,611-kilometre fence (1,230 kilometres in KP and 1,381 kilometres in Balochistan) along its border with Afghanistan, purportedly to check armed terrorists and drug smugglers moving between the two countries. However, since its first announcement in September 2005, Pakistan’s work for mining and fencing the border was stopped and renewed on at least three occasions, till April 2013, under Afghan pressure. Border fencing gained momentum after April 2013 and became a target of the terrorists.
Meanwhile, Afghanistan, expectedly and immediately after the Pakistani announcement in September 2005, raised objections on the grounds that this was an attempt to make the disputed border permanent. Pakistan temporarily shelved the plan. However, Pakistani plans for mining and fencing the border were renewed on December 26, 2006, and again opposed by the Afghan Government. The second attempt saw a border skirmish in April 2007 in the then South Waziristan Agency. Thereafter, Pakistani SFs operating in South Waziristan made a three-tier security deployment on April 11, 2007, to stop cross-border infiltration by terrorists from and into Afghanistan. Pakistan fenced 12-kilometers of its border stretch with Afghanistan to ‘choke off’ cross-border infiltration, but Afghan troops tore down the fence on April 19, leading to a gun-battle, though there were no casualties. A third attempt was made in May 2007, when Pakistan erected the first section of a fence in the Lowara Mandi area of North Waziristan on May 10, 2007, which led to cross border firing between Pakistan and Afghan forces in which at least seven Afghan soldiers were killed. Despite Afghanistan’s opposition, Pakistan started excavation work on a several-hundred-kilometre-long trench along the Balochistan border in April 2013.
On several occasions thereafter, Afghanistan has opposed Pakistani plans to fence the border. Most recently, Kabul's Ambassador to Islamabad, Omar Zakhilwal, reiterated these objections while speaking to the media on October 10, 2018,
The conflict over the legitimacy of the Durand Line – the border imposed by Britain between the North Western limits of its Indian Empire – what is now Pakistan – and Afghanistan, is more than a century old.
Significantly, on February 22, 2019, Afghanistan complained to the United Nations (UN) about violations of its territory by Pakistan’s military, including shelling, violation of airspace by military aircraft and construction of military posts and barriers on its soil. Afghan concerns about such violations had been conveyed to the UN on several earlier occasions, including through a report on recorded incidents during 2012-17. This document stated that Pakistani forces fired nearly 29,000 artillery shells into Afghanistan during this period, killing 82 people and injuring 187. The February 22, 2019, complaint further mentioned that, since January 2018, Pakistani troops had been involved in 161 violations and had fired more than 6,000 mortar and artillery shells into Afghan territory.
On August 26, 2019, in a letter written by Adela Raz, Afghanistan's ambassador to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) accused Pakistan's military of violating its territory and of firing 200 rockets into the Sheltan District between August 19 and August 20. The letter states that this is only the latest in a string of such aggressions that had been highlighted by Kabul in the past as well, and added,
Rejecting Afghanistan allegation of shelling along the border, the Pakistan Foreign Office on August 28, 2019, asserted that Pakistani troops only responded in self-defence when attacked by terrorists based on Afghan soil and asked Kabul to fulfil its commitment on elimination of terrorist hideouts along the Pak-Afghan border. A Foreign Ministry statement observed, “As a matter of policy, Pakistan does not fire across the Pak-Afghan border. Cross-border attacks by terrorists on army/FC posts are responded to in self-defence only.”
Between the ongoing accusations and counter accusations, Pakistan has succeeded in making some progress in border fencing. Providing details, Director General of ISPR Major General Asif Ghafoor disclosed, on January 27, 2019, that work on about 900 kilometres of fencing along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border had been completed. He added that work on another roughly 1,200 kilometres, the most sensitive portion of the 2,611 kilometres long border with Afghanistan, had commenced in 2018, and was expected to be completed by the end of 2020. There is no information regarding the fencing status along the remaining 500 kilometres of the border at present.
Despite significant progress in fencing, border skirmishes, both between Pakistani and Afghan Forces, as well as between Pakistani forces and terrorists who operate across the border, continue unabated. Significantly, Pakistan actively encourages porosity of the border for its state sponsored terrorists – prominently including the Taliban and the Haqqani Network – operating into Afghanistan, while it seeks to interdict the movement of domestic Pakistani formations such as the TTP as well as the Islamic State/Daesh across the border. This selective porosity is unlikely to succeed, and as long as Pakistan continues to give safe haven and protection to favoured terrorist formations to operate against Afghanistan, it is unlikely that others will not cross over to do harm to Pakistan as well. Under the circumstances, there seems to be no foreseeable end to the volatility along the border.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia September 16-22, 2019
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Andhra Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Nearly 7,000 CFA violations by Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir, says RTI: Nearly 7000 cease fire agreement (CFA) violations were made by Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) along the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB) in last seven-years. The fact was revealed in RTI response from the Union Ministry of Home Affairs. It’s also worth mentioning, that in more than half a decade, the militancy and violence-affected state of Jammu and Kashmir reported over 1,600 cross border infiltration and terrorist attack. The Times of India, September 21, 2019.
273 terrorists active in Jammu and Kashmir, say intelligence agencies: According to intelligence sources, 273 terrorists are currently active in the Valley, with plans to create disturbance and disrupt normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir. Out of these, at least 158 terrorists are active in south Kashmir, 96 in north Kashmir and 19 in central Kashmir. The agency has identified at least 166 terrorists as locals while 107 others as foreigners. Among these, 112 terrorists belong to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), 100 with Hizb-ul Mujahideen (HM), 59 with Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and three with Al-Badr. Zee News, September 19, 2019.
JeM camp in Pakistan's Balakot revived under a new name, says report: The Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)’s Markaz Syed Ahmad Shaheed facility at Balakot in Manshera in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, bombed by Indian Air Force jets on February 27, 2019, has been revived the JeM, where it is training 40 jihadists to carry out attacks in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and elsewhere in India, in the garb of a new name. The development, with the blessings of Pakistan, followed India’s August 5, 2019, decisions to defang Article 370 of the constitution, stripping J&K of its special status, and bifurcate the state into two Union territories — J&K and Ladakh. Hindustan Times, September 22, 2019.
ISI transporting tribal Pashtuns to carry out attacks in India, according to report: Locals in Pakistan have claimed that hundreds of tribal Pashtuns have been transported into Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to carry out anti-India activities. These individuals are being used to strengthen the jihadi terror groups to carry out attacks on India. Times Now, September 18 2019.
Terror graph on decline in Jammu and Kashmir, says DGP Dilbag Singh: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh on September 17 said that terrorism is on decline in the state. "With continuous efforts and sacrifices of police and security forces, the graph of terror activities is decreasing with each passing day," said Singh. "The elements across the border are continuously trying to foment trouble in Jammu and Kashmir, yet our forces are efficient enough to deal with any challenge with strong hands," he added. India Today, September 18, 2019.
Dormant routes used by Pakistan to infiltrate terrorists to J&K, says report: Dormant routes have been used by the Pakistani Army to infiltrate nearly 60 terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) since the scrapping of J&K’s special status on August 5, 2019, officials told PTI on September 17. This assessment comes amid intelligence inputs that there has been a surge in infiltration from across the border through higher reaches of North Kashmir and Poonch and Rajouri Districts of the Jammu Division, they said. NDTV, September 18, 2019.
Government releases list of 17 terrorist organizations: On September 19, the Government released the list of 17 terrorist organizations identified as terrorists groups or affiliates under the ‘terrorism Prevention Act’. The List includes Islamic State (IS), Al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Abu Sayyaf, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami (HUJI), Jaish-e-Mohammed(JeM), Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), National Thowheeth Jama'ath (NTJ), Jamathei Millathu Ibrahim (JMI) and Willayath As Seylani (WAS). Individuals found to be affiliated to these organizations face up to 15 years’ imprisonment. The Edition, September 20, 2019.
No immediate amendment of the Constitution, says Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli: Prime Minister (PM) KP Sharma Oli on September 20 in a function marking the fourth Constitutional Day and National Dayat Kathmandu of Province No.3 stated that the Government is not immediately amending the Constitution. According to PM Oli, the Government would do the amendments at the right time. This statement comes at a time when marginalized communities like Madheshis and Janajatis declared constitution Day as ‘Black Day’. The Himalayan Times, September 21, 2019.
TRC used as tool to exact revenge, says NCP Co-chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal: Co-chairman of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal speaking at an interaction on September 15 said some domestic and international forces attempted to derail the peace process and used the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) as a tool to achieve their goal. The Himalayan Times, September 18, 2019.
Cabinet approves Bill to deal with ISIS terror: The Cabinet approved new Anti-terrorism Bill to deal with the latest threat of terrorism in the wake of the Easter Sunday attacks by terror groups linked to Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The new Bill has given a broad definition to terrorism and covers areas not found in the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) such as the killing of civilians, which is not covered under the PTA is an offence in the new Bill. Daily Mirror, September 18, 2019.
Cabinet rejects abolishment of Executive Presidency: A Cabinet meeting on September 19 chaired by President Maithripala Sirisena rejected the proposal to abolish Executive Presidency. The Cabinet Ministers especially from minor parties had expressed strong reservation against ending of the Executive Presidency in haste at the time of declaration of Presidential Election. Colombo Page, September 20, 2019.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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