South Asia Terrorism Portal
Andhra Pradesh: Deep Strike in Visakhapatnam Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On September 22, 2019, at least five Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres were killed in an exchange of fire with Security Forces (SFs) near the Madigamallu-Kondajartha forest area close to Gummarevula village, near the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha Border (AOB) area, in Gudem Kotha Veedhi Mandal (administrative unit) in the Visakhapatnam District of Andhra Pradesh. The slain Maoists were identified as Ramesh, ‘divisional committee member (DCM)’; Bhuma, an expert in planting mines; Ajay, Bimala, and Budri, all three Dalam (armed squad) members from Chhattisgarh. Superintendent of Police (SP), Babujee Attada disclosed that the slain Maoists belonged to the Galikonda Dalam of the Maoists that operated in the AOB area. The exchange of fire took place when personnel of the elite anti-Maoist Greyhounds from Andhra Pradesh and the Special Protection Force (SPF) came face to face with the Maoists. SFs had launched combing operations in the agency area during the CPI-Maoist’s ‘Formation Week’ (September 21-27).
On August 19, 2019, two CPI-Maoist cadres of the ‘East Division squad’, which is led by Venkata Ravi Chaitanya aka Aruna, were killed by SFs at Mandapalli village under Gudem Kotha Veedhi Mandal in Visakhapatnam District. The identities of the slain Maoists are yet to be ascertained.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least nine Naxalites have been killed in Visakhapatnam District in three incidents since the beginning of 2019 (data till September 29). Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data, the Visakhapatnam District has accounted for the death of 62 Naxalites [Let Wing Extremists] fatalities (data till September 29, 2019).
During the same period, the district recorded 19 SF fatalities in Naxalite-linked violence. Significantly, not a single SF fatality has been recorded in 2019 (data till September 29).
Evidently, the overall SF:Naxalite kill ratio in the District is overwhelmingly in favour of the SFs, at 1:3.2. In 2019, with no SF fatality, nine Naxalites have been killed.
Unsurprisingly, civilian fatalities in any particular year have not reached double digits and the highest civilian fatalities in a year stood at seven (in years 2005, 2007, and 2010). A total of 63 civilian fatalities have been recorded in the District since March 6, 2000.
Since March 6, 2000, the District has experienced cyclical trend in fatalities, varying between a low of none in 2000, and 18 each in both 2005 and 2007.
Fatalities in Visakhapatnam District (Andhra Pradesh): 2000*-2019**
Source: SATP, *Data since March 6, 2000; **Data till September 29, 2019
During this period (March 6, 2000 and September 29, 2019), Andhra Pradesh accounted for 1,634 fatalities in total (539 civilians, 133 SFs, 909 Naxalites and 53 remained unspecified). Visakhapatnam, thus, accounted for 8.99 per cent of fatalities recorded in the State.
The District recorded a total of 92 incidents of killing since March 6, 2000, out of which 11 were major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities). The last major incident prior to the September 22, 2019, incident took place on May 4, 2016, when three CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter with the Police in Marripakala Forest under Koyyuru Police Station limits in Visakhapatnam District, The deceased were identified as Gopal aka Azad, a senior leader of the CPI-Maoist ‘east division committee’ and ‘secretary’ of the ‘Galikonda area committee’; Jammuluri Venkata Rao aka Anand aka Chinniah, a senior leader of the ‘Galikonda area committee’; and Parvatakka aka Ramulamma, a dalam member.
Though violence levels in the District were never alarming, it has always remained under constant threat from the Maoists. It is one among 90 districts in 11 States that is considered affected by Left Wing Extremism (LWE), according to a Government release of February 5, 2019. More worryingly, according to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) data, Vishakhapatnam is the only District in Andhra Pradesh, which is among the ‘30 worst Maoist-affected’ Districts from seven States in the country.
Indeed, the Maoists were able to orchestrate an audacious attack, on September 23, 2018, gunning down Kidari Sarveswara Rao, a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) from the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Siveru Soma, a former MLA, also belonging to TDP, near Livitiput village in Dumbriguda Mandal in the Agency area of Visakhapatnam District.
One of the primary reasons for the Naxalites concentration in the District is its geographical location. The District is one of the north eastern coastal Districts of the State, bounded by Odisha in the north, Vizianagaram District in the east, East Godavari District in the south-west and Bay of Bengal in the south. A September 24, 2018, report citing an unnamed senior Police officer from the region, stated that Maoist leader Akkiraju Haragopal aka Ramakrishna aka RK had established a base in the Araku valley in Visakhapatnam, as the region is seen by the Maoists as a safe corridor between the Dandakaranya region in Chhattisgarh and the forests of Jharkhand. The report noted, “They [the Maoists] discussed the need to expand their battle zone towards the north and then to the east to create a corridor with their old battle zones of Odisha and Jharkhand.”
Importantly, the Dandakaranya area comprises Bastar, Dantewada, Jagdalpur, Konta and Sukma of Chhattisgarh; Visakhapatnam and Khammam of Andhra Pradesh; and Malkangiri, Koraput and some parts of Nabarangpur District in Odisha, areas that the Maoist long dominated – though there presence has been dramatically diluted over the past years.
More recently, according to a September 26, 2019, report, the Maoists were trying to consolidate their base in the two main divisions — the East Division (comprising the Galikonda Area Committee, covering the areas of Gudem Kotha Veedhi, Sileru and parts of Koyyuru) and MKVB (Malkangiri - Koraput – Visakhapatnam Border) Division. The East Division is headed by Venkata Ravi Chaitanya aka Aruna; MKVB is headed by Gajarla Ravi aka Uday, and includes the ‘Swabhiman Anchala’ (earlier cut-off region) in Malkangiri, Nandapur and Chitrakonda in Odisha and Pedabayalu, Gangaraju Madugula, and Nandapur, on the Andhra Pradesh side. To strengthen their base in the East Division, the Maoists reportedly merged the Kalimela Area Committee of neighbouring Odisha into the East Division, and renamed the division East-Malkangiri Division. Similarly, Nandapur in Odisha was merged into Pedabayalu to strengthen the MKVB Division.
The Maoists are now expanding their campaigns to terrorise civilians. An April 13, 2019, report revealed that two polling stations in the Araku Valley area of the Agency in Visakhapatnam District recorded zero voter turnout during 2019 State Assembly Elections. The Maoists had warned villagers that “if they see the ink mark, the finger would be chopped.” Araku Valley went to the polls in Phase 1 of the Assembly polls on April 11, 2019.
A July 2, 2019, report noted that as many as 23 persons from the Visakhapatnam Agency, belonging to the Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group (PVTG), met District Collector Vadarevu Vinay Chand at the Collectorate, and sought protection from the CPI-Maoist.
Despite their intimidatory tactics, the Maoists have been kept in check by the SFs. 62 Naxals have been killed since March 6, 2000, and another 202 have been arrested. In 2019, as on September 29, the number of arrests stood at 12 in four incidents. Mounting SF pressure has also resulted in 751 LWE surrenders since March 6, 2000. 27 Maoists have surrendered in six incidents in 2019.
According to Visakhapatnam, Superintendent of Police (SP) Attada Babujee, there is no local recruitment and no local tribals to head the area. The Maoists have to depend on Chhattisgarh cadres and outside leadership across the East Division.
The Maoists are struggling to maintain their influence in Visakhapatnam, by raising the issues such as bauxite mining and coffee cultivation. But these have fizzled out with the State Government cancelling the bauxite mining lease in about 1,520 hectares at Jarella in the Chintapalli Agency area in Visakhapatnam on September 26, 2019. The Coffee Board has also stepped in to secure a premium price for the coffee growers for their product and making all attempts to promote the brand internationally. Also, a centralised Coffee Processing Unit was setup on December 21, 2007, at Thuraiguda village in Araku valley in Visakhapatnam District, to ensure quality coffee production.
The Maoists will continue to look for opportunities and ‘causes’ to restore their dominance in an area which has been under their influence since the early Naxalite movement of the 1960s. The September 22, 2019, encounter is a major success in that direction, and the SFs need to continue their efforts to transform Visakhapatnam into a rebel free zone.
Arunachal Pradesh: Rankling Borders M.A. Athul Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On September 8, 2019, Arunachal Pradesh Governor Brigadier (Retd.) B.D. Mishra sought assistance from the Government of India (GoI) to strengthen counter insurgency operation in Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts, observing, “there is an intense drive by various insurgent groups to pick local youth from Tirap, Changlang and Longding districts for recruitment.”
Indeed, contrary to the overall trend in the North East Region (NER), where insurgency related fatalities have recorded a continuous decline since 2015, the fatalities recorded in Arunachal Pradesh as whole, and these three border Districts in particular, have witnessed a cyclical trend, with noticeable spikes in years 2018 and 2019. Acknowledging the trend, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs, in a report released on July 21, 2018, noted,
According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), overall fatalities in the entire NER (including Arunachal Pradesh), have declined from 469 in 2014, to 279 in 2015, 168 in 2016, 107 in 2017, 73 in 2018 and 24 in 2019 (data till September 29, 2019). On the other hand, fatalities in Arunachal have increased from nine in 2014, to 10 in 2015, came down to nine in 2016, and further down to six in 2017; but it more than doubled, reaching 14 in 2018. The State has already recorded 15 fatalities in 2019. The combined fatalities recorded in Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts, at eight in 2014, increased to 10 in 2015, came down to nine in 2016, six in 2017, increased again to 13 in 2018 and 15 in 2019.
Significantly, these three Districts have been the epicentre of insurgency-related violence in the State for long. According to partial data compiled by SATP, since March 6, 2000, when SATP data commences, the state has recorded 216 [24 civilians, 34 Security Force (SF) personnel, 158 militants)], fatalities (data till September 29, 2019). Of these, the three Districts of Tirap, Changlang, and Longding accounted for 159 fatalities (23 civilians, 25 SF personnel and 111 militants), i.e. 73.6 per cent of the recorded.
Out of the 159 fatalities in these three Districts, Tirap accounted for 101 fatalities (15 civilians, 16 SF personnel, and 70 militants), i.e. 63.92 per cent; followed by Changlang, 44 fatalities (eight civilians, eight SF personnel and 29 militants), i.e. 27.6 per cent; and Longding, 14 fatalities (one civilian, one SF trooper and 12 militants), i.e. 8.8 per cent.
Of the 16 fatalities recorded in the State in 2019, 15, i.e. 93.7 per cent, were recorded from these three Districts. The location of one fatality, Army trooper Amit Chaturvedi on May 31, is unspecified. Again, of the 14 fatalities from these three Districts, Tirap accounted for 12 (10 civilians and two SF personnel), followed by Changlang (one militant) and Longding (one civilian).
During the entire period between March 6, 2000, and September 29, 2019, the State recorded 100 incidents of killing. The combined number for these three Districts stood at 72 [Tirap (30), Changlang 30 and Longding 12)]. In 2019, five of the six incidents of killing recorded in the State were reported from these three Districts. The location of one incident is not specified.
Of the 99 incidents of killing reported from the state between March 6, 2000, and September 27, 2019, 19 were major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities). 12 of these major incidents were reported from the three Districts [nine in Tirap District and three from Changlang]. In 2019, the only major incident reported in the state was reported from Tirap District: on May 21, 2019, a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) Tirong Aboh and 10 others, including two Personal Security Officers (PSOs), were killed in an ambush by the militants of the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) on the Khonsa-Deomali Road in Tirap District.
Although these Districts in particular and Arunachal Pradesh at large do not have any indigenous insurgency, the region is continuously used by insurgents from Assam and Nagaland as a transit route to and from Myanmar where their camps and infrastructure are located. Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) have traditionally used these Districts as a logistical hub as it falls along the international border with Myanmar. Significantly, Myanmar was a safe haven for IIGs till recently, before operations by the Myanmar Army uprooted long-established rebel encampments.
Another reason for insurgents using this area as transit route is the topography. According to a January 27, 2019, report most of the camps of Assam Rifles (AR) along the Myanmar-India border, are located well inside Indian territory and not on the border, which gives an advantage to the militants to sneak through. AR camps cannot be created right on the zero line because of the lack of infrastructure and militants take advantage of this lacuna.
The major insurgent groups operating in the region include the NSCN-IM, the Khaplang faction of the NSCN (NSCN-K), Unification faction of the NSCN (NSCN-U), the Independent faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I), and that Saraigowra faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Saraigowra (NDFB-S). Out of 23 civilian deaths attributed to terror outfits in the region, 19 were attributed to the NSCN-IM, two to the NSCN-K, one to the NDFB. One civilian death remains unattributed.
The region also provides a marginal recruitment pool, particularly for the various factions of NSCN, because of a significant Naga population in these Districts.
SFs have taken strong action to control the menace in the region. According to SATP data, at least 111 militants have been killed in the region since March 6, 2000, of which at least 59 were killed in clashes with SFs. This number included 20 NSCN-IM cadres, 15 NSCN-K, nine ULFA-I, five NSCN-U, five NSCN-R, one Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), one Surrendered ULFA (SULFA) and one Arunachal Pradesh Deprived People's Front (APPDF) militant. Group affiliation of two militants could not be identified. At least 52 militants were killed in factional clashes in the region.
SFs also arrested 500 militants in the region during the period between March 6, 2000, and September 29, 2019.
Nevertheless, policing continues to be a serious concern in the State. The dire straits of the Police force were laid bare when they could not even handle or gather intelligence on the 2019 February protests, essentially a law and order issue. The capabilities of the Police force are unlikely to be augmented significantly in the near future, with a continuous dip in budgetary allocations for Police modernisation. Recent reports indicate that allocations for the State’s Police Modernisation are declining. INR 47.9 million was earmarked for Police modernisation for 2017-18, of which only INR 34.2 million was released. In comparison, INR 42.5 million was allocated in 2018-19, while only INR 10.34 million was actually released. For the year 2019-20 the allocated funds have been reduced further to INR 39.2 million.
Unsurprisingly, Arunachal Pradesh’s three troubled Districts continue to bear the brunt of the State’s insurgency. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) remains in force in the three Districts. AFSPA was once again extended on March 31, 2019, for six months (till September 30).
The Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts of Arunachal Pradesh, which fall along India’s International border with Myanmar, are among the region’s last hubs of insurgent violence. While SF operations have done much to contain the threat, unless significant infrastructure comes up along the porous border, periodic escalations are likely to continue.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia September 23-29, 2019 , 2019
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
KP
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Current votes over 2.1 million, still waiting on 786 Centers, says IEC: Officials from the Independent Election Commission (IEC) on September 29 said that the results of 3,763 polling centers from across the country have arrived in Kabul, and the current count of presidential votes is 2,196,463. According to the IEC, the results from another 786 centers (8,161 polling sites) are on their way, but the latest figures put the number of current votes to 2,196,463. "Initially 5,373 polling centers were supposed to be operational, which makes 29,586 polling sites. From the original number, 617 centers remained closed and another 234 centers aren't reliable and it's difficult to say whether elections were held there or not," said IEC commissioner Maulana Abdullah. Tolo News, September 30, 2019.
3,300 Civilians Killed by Afghan Conflict in the past 12 months, Ministry of Public Health: Afghan Ministry of Public Health data showed that conflict-related violence from September 16, 2018, to September 10, 2019, has left more than 3,300 civilians dead and over 14,600 others injured. "Our system is active in all 34 provinces and we collect data…and when the numbers are verified we enter them into the system," said Mir Lais Mustafa, head of the Incident Response Department of the Command and Control Center. The report does not make claims about which military or group is to blame, although it measures those killed in suicide attacks, which is 460 killed, and 1,200 wounded. Tolo News, August 31, 2019.
Northern part of Afghanistan, the new 'springboard' for terrorists, says Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in his address to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) said on September 25 that the northern part of Afghanistan risks becoming a new springboard for Daesh (Islamic State) and other international terrorist organizations. "The north of Afghanistan risks becoming a new springboard for IS-led international terrorist organizations (Daesh)," Lavrov said. Tolo News, September 26, 2019.
Al Qaeda and terror cells affiliated to IS plan to attack Jews, Israelis in India, according to report: Intelligence agencies have warned about plans of international terror outfits including Al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) affiliated terror modules to attack Jewish and Israeli communities in India during their holiday season Rosh HaShanah (September 29 and October 1), Yom Kippur (October 8 and October 9) and Sukkot (October 13 to October 22). "Al Qaida and terrorist cells affiliated with IS are looking to mount attacks on Israeli targets worldwide. In view of the same, the possible targets in India may include Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, synagogues, Jewish schools, restaurants and hotels frequented by Israeli nationals in New Delhi and other cities," according to the input. The Times of India, September 26, 2019.
JeM changes name to ward off global scrutiny, say report: The Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) has changed its name to 'Majlis Wurasa-e-Shuhuda Jammu wa Kashmir (gathering of the descendants of martyrs of J&K)'. Mufti Abdul Rauf Asghar, the younger brother of its bedridden chief Masood Azhar, has taken control of the outfit. Azhar lies terminally ill in Markaz Usman-o-Ali in Bahawalpur in Pakistan. According to counterterror agencies in India, JeM has re-emerged with a new name but the same leadership and terrorist cadre; it was previously known as Khudam-ul-Islam and Al Rehmat Trust. The flag of JeM's new avatar is the same of its mother outfit with only change of word "Al-Islam" in place of "Al-Jihad", sources added. One of its leaders, Maulana Abid Mukhtar, has already called for jihad against India, the US and Israel at its Kashmir rallies this year. The Times of India, September 24, 2019.
Term 'inclusiveness' in Framework Agreement interpreted differently by GoI and NSCN-IM, states NSCN-IM General Secretary' Thuingaleng Muivah: National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) 'general secretary' Thuingaleng Muivah on September 24 stated that term 'inclusiveness' in the Framework Agreement has been differently interpreted by the Government of India (GoI). He said that "the GoI interprets the term 'inclusive' as Nagas to be in the Indian Union even after the settlement of the Indo-Naga political issue. We will not accept such interpretation whether today or tomorrow". Muivah also added, "Framework Agreement is also about shared sovereignty. That is all about peaceful co-existence of the Nagas and the Indians. It means the Indians respect the sovereignty of the Nagas. It also means the Nagas respect the sovereignty of the Indian people." He said the fate of the talks will depend on how the Government of India responds to the 'situation' when both the parties go back to the table next month. Imphal Free Press, September 25, 2019.
Bru community leaders refuse to return to Mizoram:On September 26, Bru community leaders have refused to return to their home State of Mizoram under the present circumstances. Bruno Meshe, secretary of the Mizoram Bru Displaced People's Forum (MBDPF), told a Mizoram Government delegation that the refugees are not willing to return home as the designated areas for rehabilitation are not suitable. Assam Tribune, September 27, 2019.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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