South Asia Terrorism Portal
Telangana: Abiding Threat Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 21, 2020, a Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) couple, identified as Gandrakoti Mallesham alias Mallaiah alias Kiran (35), and his wife Chintha Srilatha alias Hyma (34); surrendered to the Police at Hanamkonda in Warangal District. Mallesham, a native of Intikanne village under Kesamudram Mandal (administrative sub-division), held the posts of ‘divisional committee member, DCM’ and was also in charge of the ‘central regional bureau (CRB) – communication’. He carried a reward of INR 400,000 on his head, while, Srilatha, a native of Rampur village under Kothaguda Mandal in Mahabubabad District, held the post of the ‘DCM’ of the ‘Dandakaranya Special Zone Committee (DKSZC)’. She carried a reward of INR 100,000 on her head.
On March 15, 2020, a CPI-Maoist cadre of the ‘Kistaram Special Guerrilla Squad (SGS)’, identified as Sodi Unga (28), surrendered before the Police in Bhadradri Kothagudem District. Unga, a resident of Gattapadu village in the Sukma District of Chhattisgarh, had joined the outfit as ‘Chetna Natya Manch (CNM)’ member in 2015 under the influence of ‘Kistaram Local Organisation Squad (LOS)’ ‘commander’ Sabhita. After being promoted as Dalam member in 2018, he was shifted to the Kistaram SGS and was last working in the Prakash Dalam.
On February 7, 2020, Podium Santhosh alias Vikram (18), a Dalam member of the CPI-Maoist’s ‘Bhadradri Kothagudem-East Godavari (BK-EG) division’, surrendered before Police in Bhadradri Kothagudem District. Santhosh, a native of Kistarampadu village of Cherla Mandal had joined the outfit in 2018 as a ‘militia’ (Maoist People’s Army) member under guidance of the Cherla area ‘militia commander’ Sodi Jogaiah. He was trained and promoted as Dalam member and was last serving as a guard to the Maoists’ ‘Telangana State Committee’ member and Bhadradri Kothagudem-East Godavari ‘secretary’ Azad.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least five Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) have already surrendered in the current year (data till April 12, 2020). Nine Naxalites had surrendered in 2019, in Telengana, in addition to 10 surrenders in 2018. In total, 83 Naxalites have surrendered since June 2, 2014, when the State was formed.
In the meantime, the Security Forces (SFs) arrested three Maoists from the outskirts of Konayapalem village at Enkoor in the Khammam District of Telangana on March 16, 2020, the only arrests stands in the current year (data till April 12, 2020). At least 98 Naxalites were arrested through 2019, in addition to 54 arrested in 2018. A total of 300 Naxalites have been arrested since June 2, 2014.
The State recorded two incidents of killing resulting in two fatalities (both Maoists) through 2019. One Maoist was killed in 2018. Since June 2, 2014, the SFs have eliminated 20 Naxalites.
On the other hand, SFs have not suffered a single loss in the State since its formation. Further, the State recorded eight civilian fatalities since its formation, the last of these reported on September 10, 2018, when CPI-Maoist cadres killed a tribal farmer, identified as Irpa Venkateswarlu (52), branding him a ‘police informer’ in Kurnavalli forest area in Bhadradri Kothagudem District.
The two fatalities in 2019 were recorded from Bhadradri Kothagudem. Similarly, all the three fatalities reported in 2018 were recorded from Bhadradri Kothagudem. Of 28 fatalities recorded in the State since its formation in 2014, 17 were reported from Bhadradri Kothagudem alone. The remaining 11 fatalities were reported from Adilabad (one civilian), Hyderabad (one Maoist), Khammam (four civilians and one Maoist), Nalgonda (one Maoist), and Warangal (three Maoists). Clearly, Bhadradri Kothagudem has been the epicentre of the limited Naxal activities in the State. Telangana has a total of 31 Districts.
The Maoists have failed to make deep inroad inside Telangana since the formation of the State, and their efforts faced further setbacks through 2019. There are, nevertheless, some points of concern.
A March 18, 2020, report revealed that the Maoists had initiated activities in the Komaram Bheem and Mancherial Districts, to recruit new members. It is learnt that Maoists from Chhattisgarh have intruded into the bordering parts of these two Districts to strengthen their cadre base. Telangana shares its borders with the East Godavari, Guntur, Krishna, Kurnool, Prakasam, and West Godavari Districts of Andhra Pradesh; Bijapur and Sukma Districts of Chhattisgarh; Bidar, Kalaburagi, Raichur, and Yadgir Districts of Karnataka; and the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra.
Director General of Police (DGP), M. Mahender Reddy, reiterating that there was no Naxalite movement in the Telangana State, stated,
Further, instructing SF personnel to keep an eye on the Telangana-Chhattisgarh border and prevent Maoists from entering the State, DGP, Reddy, asserted that Telangana had been free from Maoist activities till now and it should so remain in the future.
Nevertheless, a January 29, 2020, report revealed that the CPI-Maoist had succeeded in reinstating its ‘central committee (CC)’, the second highest rung in its hierarchy, with 21 members, 10 of whom were from Telangana. The remaining 11 members were from Jharkhand (four); two each from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal; and one from Bihar. Nambala Keshava Rao aka Basava Raju, hailing from Srikakulam (in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh), was elected ‘general secretary’ of the CC. Rao is also the ‘politburo’ and ‘Central Military Commission, CMC’ member, and the current ‘chief’ of CPI-Maoist. He took over the reins of the Maoist party from Muppala Lakshmana Rao aka Ganapathi on November 5, 2018.
Telangana has been exceptional in its counter insurgency (CI) operations. However, the State continues to suffer with deficits in its fighting force. According to Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data (as on January 1, 2019), as against the sanctioned strength of 81,647 police personnel, the State has only 53,115 personnel in position, yielding a vacancy of 28,532, i.e. 34.94 per cent. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State is 139, but just 97 officers were in position, with 42 posts vacant, 30.21 per cent deficit, considerably weakening the executive supervision of the Force. Besides, the Police-area ratio (number of Policemen per 100 square kilometres) for Telangana is 47.44, as against the sanctioned strength of 72.93. The all-India ratio is 62.88, against a sanction of 78.95 per 100 square kilometres. These critical deficiencies in the enforcement apparatus of the State need urgent attention.
Though the Maoists have failed to re-establish a significant presence in the State thus far, they continue with their efforts. Significantly, they have a dogged and active presence in neighbouring States, constituting an abiding threat to Telangana.
Northeast: Consolidating the Peace M.A. Athul Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The declining trend of insurgency-linked fatalities in the Northeast, established since 2015, continued through 2019 as well. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Northeast recorded a total of 34 fatalities (18 civilians, five Security Force (SF) personnel and 11 insurgents) in 2019, as against 73 fatalities (20 civilians, 15 SF personnel, and 38 insurgents) recorded in 2018.
Overall fatalities as well as fatalities in respective categories recorded in the region in 2019 were the lowest, on year on year basis, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data. At its peak in 2003, the region accounted for a total of 1,165 fatalities. Civilian fatalities were peaked in 2000, at 519 fatalities; the maximum number of 145 SF personnel were killed in 2002. The insurgents lost a maximum of 607 cadres in 2008.
According to official data, the Northeast accounted for a total of 37 insurgency-linked fatalities (21 civilians, four SF, personnel, and 12 insurgents) in 2019, the lowest ever over all fatalities recorded since 1992. The previous low of 71 fatalities was recorded in 2018. Fatalities in respective categories – civilian, SF, and insurgent – were also the lowest in 2019. According to official statistics, there were 223 insurgency-linked incidents in 2019, again the lowest recorded in a year since 1992, with the previous low of 252 recorded in 2018.
The Northeast comprises of eight Indian states, namely Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim, of which the last has always remained free of insurgent violence.
On March 4, 2020, Union Minister of State for Home Affairs (MoS) Kishan Reddy stated in the Rajya Sabha (the Upper House of Indian Parliament),
There were 732 incidents, 107 civilian fatalities, and 18 SF fatalities in 2013.
According to SATP, out of the seven insurgency-affected states in the region, the security situation improved in six: Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. The only exception was Arunachal Pradesh where fatalities had increased from 14 in 2018, to 17 in 2019. There were six fatalities in Arunachal Pradesh in 2018. Sikkim remained free of insurgency.
There were several reasons for the continuous improvement in the security situation in the region, of which the most significant was the effectiveness of SFs on the ground. The SFs launched several successful operations in the region over the past few years and have dealt crippling blows against most of the insurgent formations violently active in the region.
According to official statistics, apart from killing 339 terrorists between 2015 and 2019, SFs have arrested 5,837 terrorists, including 936 in 2019. SFs have also recovered 2,570 arms during this period, including 312 in 2019. The mounting pressure of the SFs resulted in the surrender of 859 (158 in 2019) insurgents along with 314 weapons (67 in 2019).
Another 2,259 terrorists surrendered in 2020. MoS Kishan Reddy informed the Rajya Sabha on March 4, 2020,
Indian SFs have been assisted by SFs of Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Myanmar in their fight against the insurgents in the Northeast. For instance, Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army) targeted Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) based in Myanmar in 2019. The Operations, codenamed “Operation Sunshine 1” and “Operation Sunshine 2” were conducted between February to March 2019 (Sunshine 1) and May 16-June 8, 2019 (Sunshine 2).
Another important factor accounting for the improvement in the security situation across the region has been the success of negotiations with various militant groups. According to the Government, it has been calling for talks with militant groups that agree to renounce violence and seek resolution of the conflict within the parameters of the Constitution of India. Consequently, the Government of India (GoI) has been in talks with various insurgent groups, prominently including – the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), United Liberation Front of Asom-Pro Talks Faction (ULFA-PTF), and factions of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) with whom a peace deal was signed on January 30, 2020. The NDFB-factions which signed the peace deal include the Gobinda Basumatary led Pro-Talks faction (NDFB-PTF), Ranjan Daimary faction (NDFB-RD), and Saoraigwra faction (NDFB-S).
Worryingly, however, GoI has been unable to sign a peace agreement with the NSCN-IM, despite the signing of the Framework Agreement with the outfit on August 3, 2015. On October 31, 2019, NSCN-IM signed another ‘agreement’ to sign a final peace deal, the realization of this objective remains a distant reality, with the most basic issues still in contention.
R.N. Ravi, the interlocutor for Naga peace talks and Governor of Nagaland, in an interview published on February 28, 2020, stated,
Explaining the 'Pan Naga entity' issue, he added,
Meanwhile, reports also indicate that militants of the Suspension of Operation (SoO) groups in the region are living outside designated camps. For instance, talking about Manipur, an unnamed Indian Army official noted, “There are an estimated 200-250 active insurgents in the State outside the camps monitored as part of the SoO.”
Further, throughout 2019, the region witnessed violent protests against the Citizenship Amendment Bill 2019 (CAB 2019). After the law was passed in Parliament on December 12, 2019, the protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) got more violent. The region witnessed at least 18 incidents of violent protests against CAA between December 11-16, 2019. These protests were reported from three states – Assam (11), Meghalaya (four); and Tripura (three). The anti-CAA protests and violence subsided after curfew was clamped in violence hit areas. Non-violent protests in the region continued thereafter, though the outbreak of COVID-19 has brought these to a halt as well.
Periodic ethnic clashes, as in the past, persisted through 2019, with four such clashes recorded in the year. Between October 12 and 15, 2019, unidentified assailants torched 14 houses belonging to the Adi community in a new settlement in the Mabira area of the Namsai District of Arunachal Pradesh. It was alleged that assailants from the Thai-Khamti community, who allege that the Adi community had encroached on their land, were involved in the incidents of arson. In the latest incident, on February 28, 2020, an ethnic Khasi was killed and four Khasi Students’ Union (KSU) members were injured, following a clash between tribals and non-tribals at Ichamati village in the East Khasi Hills District of Meghalaya. The subsequent clash killed three people and led to the clamping of curfew in various parts of the State and the suspension of internet services.
The ethno-nationalist insurgent movements in the Northeast have witnessed a continuous decline over last several years, raising hopes for the establishment of a lasting peace in the region. However, the polarising policies of the ruling dispensation, primarily geared towards vote bank politics, have the potential to jeopardise the accumulated gains. There is a looming threat of an increasing frequency of political agitations accompanied with violence across the region in the foreseeable future. A conducive environment for the resurgence of a polarizing, ethno-centric narrative, which had plunged the region into decades of turmoil, is being re-created. Unless these trends are quickly reversed, both the Northeast and the country at large will pay a terrible price for the disruptive political adventurism of the party in power in the State and at the Centre.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia April 6-12, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Bihar
Maharashtra
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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