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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 17, No. 9, August 27, 2018
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

ASSESSMENT

  • AFGHANISTAN: Meaningless Overtures - Ajit Kumar Singh
  • INDIA-MYANMAR : NSCN-K: Coup! - Giriraj Bhattacharjee


AFGHANISTAN

       Print

Meaningless Overtures
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 19, 2018, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani stated

As we approach Eid-ul-Adha [festival of sacrifice]… we announce a ceasefire that would take effect from tomorrow, Monday [August 20, 2018], the day of Arafa, till the day of the birth of the prophet (PBUH) i.e., Milad-un-Nabi [November 30, 2018], provided that the Taliban reciprocate. We call on the leadership of the Taliban to welcome the wishes of Afghans for a long lasting and real peace, and we urge them to get ready for peace-talks based on Islamic values and principles…

On August 20, 2018, two unnamed Taliban ‘commanders’ responded with the statement that their supreme leader Sheikh-ul-Hadith Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada had rejected the offer on the grounds that it too would only help the American-led mission. One of the ‘commanders’ added, “Our leadership feels that they [US] will prolong their stay in Afghanistan if we announced a ceasefire now.” They also asserted that the outfit would persist with their attacks.

On the same day (August 20), the Taliban abducted and held hostage over 180 passengers – including at least 160 civilians and over 20 Security Force (SF) personnel – aboard three buses, when they were traveling through the Kunduz Province from the Takhar Province on the way to Kabul. Zabihullah Mujahid, a ‘spokesman’ for the Taliban, stated, “We decided to seize the buses after our intelligence inputs revealed that many men working with Afghan Security forces were traveling to Kabul… We are now identifying members of the security forces.” All civilians were released later. Ghulam Rabani Rabani, a provincial council member in Kunduz Province disclosed on August 21, “More than 160 civilians have reached home safely but at least 20 soldiers and policemen have been taken to an undisclosed location by the Taliban.” The Taliban confirmed the release of civilians claiming that they had no intention of harming them. The SFs were shifted to a Taliban ‘secret jail’. “Most probably we would exchange them for our prisoners later,” an unnamed Taliban ‘commander’ stated. Referring to the incident, he added, "We wanted to convey a powerful message to the Government that we can launch many attacks and defeat them at every level."

Apart from this, the Taliban have also claimed at least 57 incidents in which 78 SF personnel were killed between August 20 and August 26. On the other hand, SFs continued with their operations in Ghazni Province, where fighting between the Taliban and Government Forces intensified. Most recently, on August 24, 2018, at least 18 Taliban militants were killed during an air operation in Muqar District. Two ‘top members’ (identity not known) of the Taliban were among the dead.

Clearly, the purported cease-fire has 'ceased to exist'.

Earlier, President Ghani had announced a unilateral ceasefire with the Taliban from June 12, 2018, to June 19, 2018, during Eid al-Fitr [celebrated by Muslims worldwide to mark the end of Ramadan, the Islamic month of fasting]. Ghani had then tweeted on June 7, 2018,

The Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan announces ceasefire from the 27th of Ramadan [June 12, 2018] until the fifth day of Eid-ul-Fitr [June 19, 2018] following the historic ruling [Fatwa] of the Afghan Ulema… This ceasefire is an opportunity for Taliban to introspect that their violent campaign is not wining them hearts and minds but further alienating them.

In response, the Taliban declared, in a June 9, 2018, release

…All Mujahideen are directed to cease all offensive operations against the domestic opposition forces during the first, second and third day of Eid [June 15, 16, 17] however if Mujahideen are attacked, they must defend with their utmost capability…

The ceasefire, in this case, held till the Taliban declared its end stating , in a release dated June 17, 2018,

In order that our countrymen may celebrate their Eid festivities in ease and comfort, the Islamic Emirate announced and successfully implemented a three day ceasefire. This ceasefire was not in response to the ceasefire of the Kabul regime but was announced for the wellbeing of the nation and has to end tonight. Mujahideen throughout the country are ordered to continue their operations against the foreign invaders and their internal puppets as before.

This was despite the Ghani Government's announcement, on June 16, 2018, of a 10-day extension of the ceasefire, i.e. till June 29. On June 30, 2018, Ghani declared,

The ceasefire has ended and our security and defence forces are allowed to continue operations. Now, it is up to the Taliban's decision, whether they want to join the peace process or keep on killing in the country.

Though Ghani claimed that the second ceasefire (June 12 – 29) had been “98 per cent successful”, Taliban-linked violence remained unabated. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, there were at least 227 Taliban-linked fatalities (25 civilians, 79 SF personnel, 123 militants) during this period. Some of the major incidents (each resulting in three or more fatalities) during this period included:  

June 27: 16 Afghanistan Border Police (ABP) personnel were killed and four went missing after an attack by Taliban militants at an outpost in the Yatimi Tapa area of Chah Ab District in Takhar Province.

15 Taliban militants were killed and another eight injured in five air-strikes conducted by Afghan Forces in Khwaja Sabs Posh District of Faryab Province.

June 24: At least 10 Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers were killed in a Taliban ambush in Badghis Province (area not specified).

June 22, 2018: At least 15 pro-Government militia men were killed by Taliban militants in Badghis Province (area not specified).

June 20: 11 armed Taliban militants were killed in clashes with SFs in Trenkot city, the provincial capital of Urozgan Province.

June 18:  About 17 ANA personnel were killed when Taliban militants attacked a security shell in the Shakh Walwal region of Jorm District in Badakhshan Province.

At least 10 Taliban militants were killed and another seven wounded after they carried out an attack on Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) checkpoints in the Pusht Roaud District of Farah Province.

At least 13 Taliban militants were killed during clashes with SFs at unspecified places in Helmand Province.

June 12: 10 Taliban militants and five Policemen were killed and another 26 injured in a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack using a Humvee military vehicle in the Muqur District of Ghazni Province.

Taliban killed 18 ANA soldiers and captured their post during an overnight attack in northeastern Badakhshan Province.

These incidents clearly suggest that the ceasefire was meaningless as there was no respite from terror during its entire duration, including the three days of the overlapping ceasefire – June 15, 16, and 17.

The first overlapping ceasefire between the Government Forces and Taliban were observed, according to Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) latest quarterly report (July 30, 2018), in 2008, when the Afghan Government, international military forces and the Taliban, each announced a ceasefire coinciding with the International Peace Day (September 21). Again, in 2009, the Afghan Government, international military forces, and the Taliban announced new ceasefires coinciding with the International Peace Day. Bothe these ceasefires lasted for just the one day.

These ceasefires and ongoing efforts to include Taliban in peace-process  have all proven futile, as the Taliban has clearly stated its goal to continue jihad till it achieves its goal of ousting foreign forces and forming a Government of its 'own'. Taliban chief Sheikh-ul-Hadith Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, thus stated on August 18, 2018,

…it is incumbent upon us to show our appreciation of Divine Help and Jihadi victories with further Jihadic efforts and services and with further rectification of our intentions and deeds in order to become even more deserving of Allah Almighty's help and assistance because righteous actions produce firmness and steadfastness in Jihad. …We pray to Allah that He (SwT) free Afghanistan from the American occupation, end the long tragedy of the valiant Afghan people through His Bounty, safeguard the Muslim Afghan nation from all enemy plots through their unity and bless them with an Islamic government on their own soil, of their own choice and choosing…

The war in Afghanistan continues.

INDIA
MYANMAR
       Print

NSCN-K: Coup!  
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Myanmar-based Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-Khaplang) in a 'party emergency meeting' held on August 17, 2018, at its 'council headquarters' in Myanmar's Sagaing region, 'elected' Yung Aung, a Myanmarese national, as the new 'acting chairman' of the outfit. The NSCN-K in a release announced,

The National Socialist Council unanimously elected Mr. Yung Aung as the new Acting Chairman of the party by a majority vote on this day of 17th August 2018... effective from today he shall exercise his powers, functions….

Yung Aung replaced the incumbent 'chairman' 'lieutenant general' Khango Konyak (an Indian national) who was 'impeached' during the 'emergency meeting', in absentia. A NSCN-K statement reportedly released to the media read,

He was found guilty of absolute control of powers and functions without collective leadership, non-distribution of powers and functions exposing a one-man government policy, incompatible traits...

The statement termed his impeachment a necessity to "save" the ‘party’ from further "breakdown and confusion".

The statement reportedly added the outfit would reserve its respect for Khango as the senior-most party member and in recognition for his long service towards the cause of the ‘nation’, "he shall be unharmed and will be allowed a safe passage".

On June 20, 2017, Khango Konyak had replaced the founding ‘chairman’ of NSCN-K, Shangwang Shangyung Khaplang, following the latter’s death on June 9, 2017, after a prolonged illness in a hospital at Taga in the Sagaing Division of Myanmar. Khango Konyak at that time was the ‘vice-chairman’ of the outfit. The new ‘acting chairman’ Aung is the nephew of Shangwang Shangyung Khaplang and was the ‘defence kilonser (minister)’ of the outfit prior to his elevation.

Though the NSCN-K release accused Khango Konyak of violating ‘party discipline’ and cited some reasons which led to his ‘impeachment’, this was, in all likelihood done with an aim to bring back a Myanmarese national to the helm of the outfit once again. If reports are to be believed, after the death of Khaplang, NSCN-K had appointed ‘commander-in-chief’ Khumchok Pangmi, a Myanmarese national, as ‘acting chairman’. This was resisted by Naga members from the Indian side on the ground that, being the ‘vice-chairman’, Khango Konyak was the rightful claimant to the supreme position. Though Konyak then became the ‘chairman’, the divide between Myanmarese and Indian Naga members in the group rose to surface.  Konyak had been a Khaplang loyalist since 1988, when NSCN split into the NSCN-K and NSCN- Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) factions, and with his ‘impeachment’ the group has virtually no Naga from India in a position of power. Prior to Nagaland’s Assembly election in February, Union Minister of State (MoS) for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju emphasized that NSCN-K was “an insurgent group from Myanmar", when asked if the Government foresaw a threat from the outfit during the polls.

Reports also indicate that the abrupt decision to ‘impeach’ Konyak was because the Myanmar-origin Nagas were inching closer to signing a peace accord with the Myanmar Government. NSCN-K has formally maintained a ceasefire with the Myanmar Government since April 2012.

The impact of the ‘impeachment’ remains uncertain. Yung Aung reportedly has deep links with China and maintains close ties with the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Baruah and the Manipuri militant leadership. If he chooses to emphasize the operational unity of militant formations across the Northeast – as did Khaplang under the aegis of the United National Liberation Front West South East Asia (UNLFWESA) – this may escalate violence in the region.

NSCN-K had emerged as the most active militant outfit under Khaplang after it walked out of the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) in 2015, particularly targeting Security Forces (SFs). NSCN-K violence spanned Nagaland, Assam, Manipur, and Arunachal Pradesh, with the group linked to a total of at least 79 fatalities (seven civilians, 32 SF personnel, and 40 NSCN-K militants) in the three States between March 27, 2015 and June 10, 2017, before Khango Konyak assumed charge. However, in Konyak's 14 month tenure, violence declined, and NSCN-K 'central committee member' U Kyaw Wan Sein observed on [report of August 20, 2018],

He [Khango] could not do anything that would develop our organization. We were disordered and our work suffered setbacks. There was no guidance to the ministries and no engagement with the public.

According to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), only five NSCN-K linked fatalities (one civilian, one trooper, and three NSCN-K militants) were recorded across Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur during Konyak's tenure. No fatalities have been recorded in Assam from June 11, 2017, till date. Only one major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) was attributed to NSCN-K in this period.

Konyak's impeachment may also impact adversely on the India's efforts to bring NSCN-K back to the negotiating table. Founder 'chairman' Khaplang was always under the control of Myanmarese Nagas, who remained extremely hostile to the Indian Government. Konyak's appointment as 'chairman' had raised hopes of an early breakthrough. After Khaplang's death MoS Rijiju had noted, on June 10, 2017,

Khaplang was the main person who was supporting and facilitating insurgency in the Northeast and had a clout. He was a Myanmarese citizen and hence there was a problem. His death will definitely have impact in the region.

With Konyak’s ‘impeachment’ the situation is likely to revert to the earlier status of amplified hostility.

Significantly, NSCN-K is the only Naga outfit which outside the ambit of the Naga talks, which have purportedly been at a ‘final stage’ since the signing of the ‘framework agreement’ with NSCN-IM on August 3, 2015.  

On the other hand, the ‘impeachment’ may lead to the further weakening of the outfit. An unnamed source observed, "The move may lead to defection within the NSCN-K, as the Konyak tribe and the Indian-origin Nagas will certainly be angered by it…" Two earlier instances of splits in NSCN-K include the formation of Khole-Kitovi faction [NSCN-KK, subsequently rechristened as NSCN-Neopao Konyak/Kitovi (NK)] in 2011, and the Reformation faction (NSCN-R) in 2015. Khole Konyak and Kitovi Zhimomi, who formed NSCN-KK, were Indians. Two other Indian NSCN-K leaders, Y. Wangtin Konyak and P. Tikhak, who did not agree to Khaplang’s diktat on abrogation of ceasefire, had formed NSCN-R. The Government signed a ceasefire agreement with NSCN-NK on April 28, 2012; and with NSCN-R on April 27, 2015. 

Further, the ‘impeachment’ is unlikely to weaken the militant conglomerate UNLFWESA, as the relationship between the participating formations remains deeply symbiotic in terms of money, arms and camps. However, with the removal of Indian Nagas, primarily of Konyak origin, the support for NSCN-K may shrink in the Konyak inhibited areas such as the Mon District of Nagaland. UNLFWESA was first headed by Khaplang and, after his death; Khango Konyak became the ‘chief’ of this alliance.

Meanwhile, Konyak is believed to have left the NSCN-K ‘domain’ along with other ‘Indian’ Naga leaders, including ‘lieutenant general’ Niki Sumi, the ‘military supervisor’ of the Indian side, and Isaac Sumi, its ‘publicity secretary’. Reports indicate that Khango Konyak remains undecided about his future and is said to be in touch with both the Isak Muivah and Khole-Neopak factions. According to sources, almost a hundred cadres are believed to be in Konyak’s group, as they return to the Indian side in batches. Reports suggest that Konyak may join the ‘peace talks’. Other reports indicate that NSCN-K’s Sumi tribal faction from Nagaland, led by Nikki Sumi, may soon reach a ceasefire designated camp in the State.

The coup within NSCN-K will certainly have an impact on the Naga insurgency, but the intensity and direction of its consequences remain uncertain.

 
NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
August 20-26, 2018

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

2
4
4
10

Manipur

0
0
1
1

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Chhattisgarh

2
0
1
3

INDIA (Total)

4
4
6
14

PAKISTAN

 
 
 
 

KP

0
1
0
1

Sindh

0
0
2
2

PAKISTAN

0
1
2
3
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.

AFGHANISTAN

Taliban accepts Russian invitation for talks in Moscow: The Taliban on August 22 confirmed that it would send senior members to Russia for peace talks on Afghanistan. "Our leaders have accepted Russia's invitation to participate in Russia-led peace talks," said Taliban 'spokesman' Zabihullah Mujahid. At least four senior Taliban members will attend, said a Taliban 'commander', adding that the delegation would be led by Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, the head of the Islamist group's political office in the Qatari capital Doha. Russia has invited several countries, including the United States, to the Moscow talks in September but Washington and Afghanistan have said they will not go. Bakhtar News, August 24, 2018.

Taliban's military chief among 102 killed in Faryab airstrikes: At least 102 militants, including some leaders of the Taliban, were killed in multiple airstrikes conducted in Faryab province. According to a statement released by the 209th Shaheen Corps of the Afghan Military in the North, the militants were killed during three airstrikes conducted in the bordering regions between Garziwan and Bulcharagh Districts. The statement further added that the militants were targeted in the vicinity of Hamam Chashma area as they were travelling to Garziwan from Bulcharagh District. Khaama, August 21, 2018.

NSA Mohammad Hanif Atmar resigns, says report: Afghanistan's National Security Adviser Mohammad Hanif Atmar resigned from his post on August 25. Hamdullah Mohib was appointed as NSA on August 26 after President Ashraf Ghani said earlier that he had accepted Atmar's resignation in the interests of the country. Bakhtar News, August 27, 2018.

BANGLADESH

BNP, Khaleda Zia, and Tarique Rahman were involved in grenade attack on August 21, 2004, says Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 21 said there is no doubt that Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), its chief Khaleda Zia and her son Tarique Rahman were involved in the brutal grenade attack on August 21, 2004. New Age, August 22, 2018.  

INDIA

Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal are top-most States in FICN recovery, says report: According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB)'s data presented by the Minister of State for Home Affairs (MoSHA) Hansraj Gangaram Ahir in the Parliament that post-demonetisation i.e. November 9, 2016, to June 30, 2018, around 43 percent of the Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICNs) have been recovered from Gujarat, followed by the Uttar Pradesh (15.8 percent), and West Bengal (14.4 percent). The FICNs worth INR 7.3 Crore were recovered four States sharing a border with Pakistan - Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat, whereas the FICNs recovered from the States bordering Bangladesh counts to INR 3.9 Crore and from the States bordering Nepal counts to INR 2.54 Crore. Times of India, August 25, 2018.

35 per cent of cyber-attacks on Indian websites originate from China, reads report by ME&IT: In a report sent to the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) by the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In) - a division of the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (ME&IT) has stated that 35% of cyber-attacks on Indian websites are from China, followed by the United States (US) and Russia. There are possibilities that attackers from Pakistan utilises the German and Canadian cyberspace to attack Indian websites. The cyber-attacks from China made up 35 per cent of the total number of cyber-attacks on official Indian websites, followed by US (17%), Russia (15%), Pakistan (9%), Canada (7%) and Germany (5%), read the report. Indian Express, August 23, 2018.

Since 2012, at least 24 terror suspects returned by Gulf countries, says report: The analysis of data compiled by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) and Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has revealed that since 2012, total 24 terror suspects were either extradite or deported to India by the Gulf countries and out of these 24 suspects, 18 were sent back by the Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) authorities. The most recent deportation was of an alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) operative- Habibur Rahman, who was sent to India in earlier August by Saudi Arabia. Hindustan Times, August 24, 2018.

Bastar taking a new shape leaving behind Maoism, says Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh: Chhattisgarh Chief Minister (CM), Raman Singh on August 24, said that the Bastar region is taking a new shape with fruits of development reaching new heights, leaving behind its popular perception of Maoism [Left Wing Extremism, LWE]. "We have constructed about 1,800 km of roads and have electrified almost all the villages. Besides that, health, education and connectivity has improved a lot," CM Singh said. New Kerala, August 26, 2018.

Maoists contemplating dialogue with Union Government, reveal recovered documents: Documents recovered from the sites of recent exchanges of fire between Security Forces (SFs) and the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh (dates and location not specified), hints that the Maoist 'think-tank' and those over ground are seriously contemplating a dialogue with the Union Government. According to intelligence officials, a couple of documents written by a Maoist ideologue also suggest a path to initiate these talks. The Hindu, August 23, 2018.

 
MALDIVES

EU sanctions enlist 41 individuals, says Member of European Parliament: The European Union (EU) has enlisted 41 individuals for targeted sanctions if the political situation in the Maldives does not improve within weeks for upcoming Presidential elections in the Island. I was Rapporteur of the European Parliament Resolution on the Maldives, and we have the list of 41 names under the sanctions, said Member of European Parliament (MEP) Tomas Zdechovsky. Maldives Times, August 22, 2018.

Political crisis weakened the democratic institutions in the Maldives, says US diplomat Alice Wells: Addressing the Press, the United States' (US) Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Alice Wells has said that the State of Emergency (SoE) has weakened the democratic institutions in the Maldives. The upcoming Presidential elections in the Maldives would be crucial to see if it is possible for the opposition party to put forward and present an alternative, as is normal in any democratic system to current President Abdulla Yameen, said Wells. Maldives Times, August 22, 2018.

 
PAKISTAN

Ensure terrorists don't get haven, US tells Pakistan: The US wants Pakistan to ensure that terror groups do not enjoy "safe haven" in the country. Alice Wells, assistant secretary in charge of South Asia in the US State Department, told reporters, "We are urging the government to do more to bring pressure to bear against these organizations' externally-oriented terrorist groups." Wells said Washington wants Pakistan to "reinforce" the message to the Taliban that they should get to the negotiating table. Times of India, August 18, 2018.

 
SRI LANKA

Missing persons during war since 1983 could be about 20,000, says OMP: Office of Missing Persons (OMP) on August 23 said that they were yet to finalise a list of missing persons during the war in Sri Lanka since 1983 but it could be about 20,000. OMP Chairman Saliya Pieris PC said they had several reports compiled by the commissions and institutions on the number of missing persons in the country. Daily Mirror, August 24, 2018. 

88 percent of lands occupied by Security Forces released to original owners, says President Maithripala Sirisena: President Maithripala Sirisena while commencing the renovation activities of Mailaddy Fisheries Harbour in Jaffna District on August 22 said 88 percent of the lands occupied by the Security Forces have been released to their original owners and the Government is of the clear stance to expedite the release of the remaining 12 percent to the owners as well. The President also said that the lands belonging to Mailaddy School and other area schools, which are still under the custody of the security forces, will be released within the next two weeks. Colombo Page, August 24, 2018. 

Parliament rejects Report of the Delimitation Committee: Parliament on August 24 rejected the Report of the Delimitation Committee for the Delimitation of electorates in Provincial Councils which was presented to Parliament by the Minister of Provincial Councils and Local Government. In the division that was taken, no votes were cast in favour while 139 votes were against it. The report was required to be approved by a majority of two-thirds voting in its favour. Colombo Page, August 24, 2018. 

 
For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 
 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

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