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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 17, No. 30, January 21, 2019
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

ASSESSMENT

  • INDIA: Manipur: Malignant Politics - Giriraj Bhattacharjee
  • INDIA: Odisha: Declining Threat- Deepak Kumar Nayak


INDIA

       Print

Manipur: Malignant Politics 
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 15, 2019, at least 10 persons were wounded in a clash between protesters and Police at Khwairamband Keithel in Imphal West District. The clash occurred when people protesting against the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2019, [first introduced as the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016, and passed on in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Indian Parliament) on January 8, 2019, following the submission of a Joint Parliamentary Committee report on January 7, 2019] were heading towards Raj Bhavan (the official residence of the State’s Governor).

On January 14, 2019, four persons, including two women, were injured during a Police crackdown in Imphal, the State capital, on protesters demanding scrapping of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill.

On January 11, 2019, four protestors were injured after Police used tear gas to stop a student protest rally against the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill in Imphal city. The rally was organised by Joint students’ body that included the All Manipur Students Union (AMSU), Apunba Irreipakki Maheiroising Singpanglup (AIMS), Democratic Students Alliance of Manipur (DESAM), Manipur Students Federation (MSF), Kangleipak Students Federation (KSF) and Studentcs Union of Kangleipak (SUK).

Manipur has been witnessing sporadic protests since January 8, 2019, when the Lok Sabha passed the contentious Bill. According to media reports, the Bill was supposed to be tabled in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Indian Parliament) on January 9, 2019, but was deferred. There is speculation that the Bill might be tabled during the Budget session starting from January 31, 2019. 

 Following the passage of the Bill in the Lok Sabha, the Manipur Government in a Press Release on January 10, 2019, stated that the State Cabinet reviewed the situation prevailing in the State after passing of the Bill. The Cabinet "decided to urge the Union Government and concerned authority to give assent to the Manipur People's (Protection) Bill, 2018." It also "decided to urge the Centre for exemption of Manipur from the jurisdiction of the Citizenship Amendment Bill." The press release further stated,

The State Cabinet observed that the population of the State is only 0.2 (per cent) of that of the whole of India… There is apprehension that once the Citizenship Bill is implemented in Manipur on becoming a law, the State will be flooded with a large number of illegal immigrants and foreigners from neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar, etc., as international borders are porous…

The Manipur People’s (Protection) Bill, 2018, was passed in the State Assembly to regulate entry and exit of non-Manipuris from outside the State. According to partial data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal, 201 persons have been detained for suspect nationality in the State in the year 2018. No further information regarding the status of these detainees is available.

These initial murmurs against the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, need, to be carefully considered by the Governments – Centre and State, as they have the potential to reignite simmering ethnic sentiments and conflicts across the State.

Meanwhile, insurgency-linked violence in Manipur has ebbed considerably in recent times, but maintains cyclic trends. According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), 23 fatalities [seven civilians, seven Security Force (SF) personnel, and nine militants) were recorded in the State in 2018. Through 2017, the State recorded 55 fatalities (23 civilians, nine SF personnel, and 23 militants). Overall fatalities thus witnessed a decline of approximately 58.1 per cent in 2018 as compared to 2017. No such fatality has been recorded in the State in the current year, thus far (data till January 20, 2019). Overall fatalities in the State were the lowest in 2018, since 1992. A previous low of 33 was recorded in 2016. At the peak of insurgent violence in 1997, the State registered 495 fatalities.

Fatalities across all three categories have registered decline. More significantly, in 2018, Manipur recorded the lowest civilian fatalities witnessed in a year since 1992. A previous low of 14 civilian fatalities was recorded in 2016. At its peak, the State had recorded 226 civilian fatalities in 1993. Fatalities among SFs in 2018 were the second lowest since 1992. The lowest recorded was in 2013, when six SF personnel were killed. A maximum of 111 SF personnel were killed in 1997. The number of militants killed in 2018 was, again, the second lowest in a year since 1992. A previous low of eight was recorded in 2016. The State recorded 341 militants killed in 2008, the highest in a year since 1992.

22 incidents of insurgency-related killing were recorded in 2018 as compared to 37 such incidents in 2017. Incidents of killing were reported from eight of the State’s 16 Districts in 2018. Noney District recorded the highest fatalities, seven in seven incidents; followed by Imphal West, five in five incidents; Chandel, three in three incidents; Churachandpur, two in two incidents, Kangpokpi, two in two incidents; Thoubal, Tegnoupal and Kamjong one each. In 2017, incidents of killing were reported from 10 of the State’s 16 Districts.

The six Hill Districts (dominated mainly by Naga and Kuki tribes) accounted for 69.56 per cent of total insurgency-linked fatalities (16 out of 23) in 2018. There were no fatalities in the remaining four Hill Districts (Senapati, Pherzawl, Ukhrul and Tamenglong). Manipur currently has a total of 10 Hill Districts: Chandel, Tamenglong, Senapati, Ukhrul, Pherzawl, Noney, Tegnoupal, Kangpokpi, Kamjong and Churachandpur. Significantly, five of the current 10 Hill Districts are along the porous and volatile Indo-Myanmar border, increasing their vulnerability. Two Valley Districts (Imphal West and Thoubal) registered the remaining 30.43 per cent of fatalities (seven of 23) in 2018.

In 2017, seven of the State’s 10 Hill Districts accounted for 74.5 per cent of total fatalities (41 out of the total 55 fatalities). The Districts where fatalities were recorded in 2017 were Kamjong, Tegnoupal, Kangpokpi, Churachandpur, Chandel, Ukhrul and Noney. There were no insurgency linked fatalities in the remaining three Hill Districts, Senapati, Pherzawl and Tamenglong. Three Valley Districts – Imphal West, Jiribam and Bishnupur – registered the remaining 18.1 per cent of fatalities (10 of 55) in 2017. The location of the remaining four militant fatalities could not be conclusively determined.

In 2018, four SF personnel were killed and another 30 persons (14 civilians and 16 SF personnel) were injured in 19 incidents of explosion. In 2017, seven lives (six SF personnel and one militant) were lost and 62 persons were injured in 39 incidents of explosion.

Incidents of fratricidal killings by insurgents also recorded a decline. Six militants died in six such incidents in 2018 as against 19 such fatalities in 10 incidents in 2017.

Meanwhile, the SF drive against militants in the State led to the arrest of 172 militants in 2018, adding to 177 arrested in 2017. In one of the prominent incidents, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) arrested the ‘chairman’ of the Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA), David Hangshing, on August 25, 2018, in connection with the a case of missing arms from the Police armoury.

Several areas of concern, nevertheless, persist. 24 persons (in 12 incidents) were abducted in 2018 as against 23 (in 13 incidents) in 2017, according to partial data compiled by SATP. SFs rescued 12 persons, another nine were released, while the whereabouts of the remaining three are not known. Incidents of abduction and extortion are grossly underreported. Continued incidents of abduction-for-ransom clearly demonstrate that militants still have significant presence.

The porous Indo-Myanmar border facilitates militant movement. Active militant formations have moved their camps further inside Myanmar following the cross-border raids in June 2015. An unnamed Indian Army officer, on the condition of anonymity, stated, in November 2018, “Insurgent groups have moved deeper into Myanmar” following the strikes.

Apart from the escalating troubles related to the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, the persistent ethnic conflict in the State is far from being resolved. The demands of the Hill-based outfits run contrary to those of the majority sentiment of the Valley residents. The initial demand of the Kuki militant conglomerates for a separate State remains unacceptable to the State Government (both the previous Ibobi Singh-led regime and the present one led by N. Biren Singh) reflecting sentiments amongst Valley inhabitants. Thus, Chief Minister N. Biren Singh declared, on February 21, 2018, "We will not accept any demand for creation of a Kuki State. The peace process was initiated by the Centre. The State Government has not been a part of the talks between the Kuki groups and the Centre. The peace pact was signed after the groups had assured that they would not raise the demand for statehood."

The Naga Framework Accord and its possible implication on Manipur’s territorial integrity continue to raise suspicions in the Valley Districts. The submission of a report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on the framework agreement in July 2018, once again, raised alarm. In the report, the Government’s interlocutor for Naga talks, R.N. Ravi, had said that a "special status" would be offered to the Naga people by extending Article 371 (A) to Naga-inhabited areas.

On July 16, 2018, Chief Minister N. Biren Singh, however, warned, “If our voice is not heard, if the consent of the State Assembly or of the people is not taken, then we will have difficulties. Then we will have to leave our posts." Less than a month later, on August 10, 2018, eight Imphal Valley-based civil society organisations enforced a half-day shutdown of shops, business establishments, and marketplaces in the city, and also in Uripok, Sagolband and Thangmeiband in Imphal. Jeetendra Ningomba, vice president of the Committee of Civil Societies Kangleipak (CCSK), one of the civil societies enforcing the shutdown, stated, "If the article [371A] is applied in the Naga-inhabited areas of Manipur, the State Government would have no right to interfere. This is an indirect submission to the demand for greater Nagaland."

Further, the Suspension of Operations (SoO) with the Kuki militant conglomerates Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and the United People's Front (UPF), was extended on September 2018. The SoO Agreement now will be valid till August 31, 2019. The talks with the group, according to news reports, remain at a preliminary stage. KNO ‘president’ P.S. Haokip disclosed, on September 13, 2018, that substantive talks were yet to begin and the groups’ principal demand for a “territorial council” will be placed before the Government whenever the next round of talks are held.

The presence of militants of the SoO groups living outside designated camps is also a cause for concern. An unnamed Indian Army official thus noted, “There are an estimated 200-250 active insurgents in the State outside the camps monitored as part of the SoO.”

Moreover, the issue of the politico-administrative status of the Hill Districts remained unresolved since the creation of new Districts. The 10th round of the tripartite talks between the Centre, State Government, and United Naga Council (UNC), held at the Senapati District headquarters town on September 1, 2018, remained inconclusive. According to news reports, the State Government made a request for more time, during the tripartite talks, to come up with concrete proposals regarding the UNC's demand for a roll-back of the decision Notification of District creation] of the previous Ibobi Singh-led State Government to create seven new Districts in the State in 2016.

In November 2018, General Officer Commanding of the 57 Mountain Division, Major General V.K. Mishra observed, "The presence of so many groups adds to the complexity... Given the complexity of the problem, it may take longer to achieve a solution”.  The 57 Mountain Division of the Indian Army, based in Leimakhong, is involved in counter-insurgency operations in the State.

Nevertheless, the relative peace over the years has opened up spaces for development work. A slew of projects, totalling INR 15 billion, were inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on January 4, 2019. The projects include an Integrated Check Post (ICP) at Moreh in Tengnoupal District near the Indo-Myanmar border; the Dolaithabi barrage in Kangpokpi District; a Food Corporation of India (FCI) storage godown in Imphal East District; a buffer water reservoir at Shirui village in Ukhrul District; upgraded water supply for Churachandpur (zone-III) in Churachandpur District; an eco-tourism complex at Thangal Surung in Kangpokpi District; an integrated tourist destination at Tupul in Noney District; and the water supply scheme at Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalaya located in Lambui in Ukhrul District. Prime Minister Modi also dedicated a 400kV double-circuit Silchar-Imphal power transmission line to the nation.

The qualified peace achieved in the State needs to be carefully nurtured, as emotive issues related to land and identity are involved in the many latent and low grade conflicts that exist in Manipur. The passage of Citizenship (Amendment) Bill in the Lok Sabha is an unwise move that threatens the fragile equilibrium that has been established in the State after decades of violent armed conflict and political turmoil. It remains to be seen whether the current regime at the Centre has the sagacity to bring reason back into its calculus, or persists in its short-term electoral politics of communal polarization, which appears to be the principal motive behind the Citizenship Amendment Bill.


INDIA

      Print

Odisha: Declining Threat 
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 5, 2019, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres shot dead a guard of a road construction firm at Patiamba village under Phulbani Sadar Police Station limits in Kandhamal District, suspecting him of being a ‘Police informer’. Superintendent of Police (SP), Prateek Singh disclosed that a group of 10 to 12 armed cadres of the CPI-Maoist ‘Kalahandi-Kandhamal-Boudh-Nayagarh (KKBN) division’, raided the road construction camp where contractor Prasanna Kumar Swain was building the Sudrukumpa-Medikhol Road under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) scheme. The rebels barged into the camp at around 2 am, dragged out watchman Rabindra Mallick and shot him dead. They then set ablaze five vehicles, including a road roller, three tractors, and a mini truck, before fleeing. Before leaving the area, the Maoists also put up two handwritten leaflets near the site. The leaflets mentioned that the attack was in retaliation to the killing of Badal, the ‘divisional committee member, (DCM)’ with a reward of INR 500,000 on his head and four others, in the District on May 13, 2018.

Later, on January 15, 2019, Police arrested seven CPI-Maoist cadres, two from Madikula and five from Tikiripada village under Phulbani Sadar Police Station limits in Kandhamal District, for their involvement in the killing.

No other incident of Left-wing Extremism (LWE)-linked violence has been recorded in the State, thus far, in 2019 (data till January 20, 2019).

Meanwhile, the trend of declining fatalities, on year on year basis, in LWE-linked violence established since 2011, with the exception in 2016, continued through 2018. According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 32 persons, including 13 civilians, one Security Force (SF) trooper, and 18 Maoists, were killed in the State in 2018, as against 36 persons, including 18 civilians, nine SF personnel and nine Maoists, killed in 2017. Significantly, at its peak in 2009, the State had recorded a total of 108 fatalities.

More importantly, Odisha registered a decline of 27.77 percent in civilian fatalities, from 18 in 2017 to 13 in 2018. Fatalities recorded in this category in 2018, on year on year basis, were the fourth lowest since the formation of CPI-Maoist in September 2004. The lowest number (three fatalities) was recorded in 2006, while the second lowest (13) was recorded twice, in 2005 and 2007. Significantly, the highest number of civilian fatalities (62) was registered in 2010.

Fatalities among SFs decreased from nine in 2017 to just a single fatality in 2018, which is the lowest since the formation of CPI-Maoist in September 2004. One SF fatality each was registered in 2005 and 2014 as well. A total of 76 SF personnel were killed in 2008, the maximum in a year.

SFs achieved their best ever kill ratio against the Maoists (1:18) in 2018, since the formation of the CPI-Maoist in 2004, with 18 Maoists killed for just a single SF loss. In 2017, the ratio was 1:1 (nine SF personnel; nine Maoists). The overall kill ratio since 2005 stands at 1:1.26. Out of 14 years between 2005 and 2018, the ratio was in favour of SFs in 11 years. However, in 2009, the SFs lost 32 of their own personnel, killing 13 Maoists yielding an adverse kill ratio of 2.46:1. The other two adverse kill ratio of 2.37:1 and 1.35:1 were registered in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

SFs arrested 38 Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) through 2018 in addition to 49 in 2017. The arrested cadres included one ‘area committee member (ACM)’ and one ‘politburo member’ of the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist-Red Star (CPI-ML-Red Star).

Moreover, mounting SF pressure also led to the surrender of 18 LWEs in 2018, in addition to 49 surrenders in 2017. The cadres who surrendered in 2018 included Kunu Dehury, ‘Divisional Committee Secretary,’ carrying a reward of INR 800,000 on his head, in the Sambalpur District on April 14, 2018; Dayanand aka Chhotu Ganjhu (28), ‘section commander’ in the CPI-Maoist ‘Sambalpur-Deogarh-Sundargarh Division’, carrying a reward of INR 400,000 on his head, in Angul District on April 17, 2018; and Mukesh, an ‘area committee member’ (ACM), of the ‘Kalimela Dalam (armed squad)’,in Malkangiri District on July 29, 2018.

At least 17 incidents of recovery of arms and ammunition by SF personnel were reported in 2018. There were 31 such instances of recovery in 2017.

The Maoists carried out five blasts in 2018 as against six in 2017. They had been involved in eight incidents of arson in 2018 as against 13 in 2017. Further, at least four incidents of abduction (in which 14 persons were abducted of which one person was killed and others were let off after ‘warnings’) by the Maoists were reported in 2018 as against nine such incidents (in which 25 persons were abducted of which four persons were killed and others were released after ‘warnings’) in 2017.

However, several areas of concern remain.

In 2018, according to the SATP database, killings were reported from 10 Districts, as against seven in 2017.  The 10 Districts in 2018,from where killings were reported included: Malkangiri (10 fatalities, six civilians and eight Maoists); Kandhamal (five, all Maoists); Koraput (three, all Maoists); Nabarangpur (three, all civilians); Bolangir (two, both Maoists); Bargarh (one civilian); Kalahandi (one civilian); Nuapada (one civilian); Rayagada (one, SF trooper); and Sundargarh (one, civilian). The seven Districts where fatalities were recorded in 2017 included Malkangiri (14, 12 civilians and two Maoists); Koraput (11, two civilians, eight SF personnel and one Maoist); Kalahandi (three, two civilians and one Maoist); Kandhamal (three, one civilian, one SF trooper and one Maoist); Bargarh (two Maoists); Sundargarh (two Maoists); and Rayagada (one civilian).

According to the SATP database, in terms of underground and over-ground LWE activities, two of Odisha’s 30 Districts remained in the category of ‘highly-affected’ Districts: Kandhamal and Malkangiri. Bargarh, Bolangir, Kalahandi, Koraput, Nabarangpur, Nuapada, Rayagada and Sundargarh were ‘moderately affected’, while Angul, Boudh, Gajapati, Nayagarh, and Sambalpur, remained ‘marginally affected’. In 2017, three Districts were in the ‘highly-affected’ category: Kandhamal, Koraput, and Malkangiri. Bargarh, Kalahandi, Rayagada, and Sundargarh were ‘moderately affected’, whileBolangir and Nayagarh were ‘marginally affected’Districts. The number of affected Districts thus rose from nine to 15 between 2017 and 2018.

Significantly, on April 16, 2018, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) disclosed that at least 30 Districts across seven States were categorised as ‘worst Maoist-affected’.Two of these Districts, Koraput and Malkangiri fell in Odisha. On April 16, 2018, UMHA also disclosed that the number of Maoist-affected Districts covered under the Security Related Expenditure Scheme (SRE) had decreased from 126 in 10 States to 90 in 11 States.15 of these 90 Districts  were in Odisha. In addition to the two worst-affected Districts mentioned, the other 13 Districts were Angul, Bargarh, Bolangir, Boudh, Deogarh, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Nabarangpur, Nayagarh, Nuapada, Rayagada, Sambalpur and Sundargarh.

In addition to CPI-Maoist, the People’s Liberation Front of India (PLFI), a CPI-Maoist splinter group mainly based in Jharkhand, also continues to make its presence felt in Odisha. On March 6, 2018, PLFI cadres killed a civilian identified as Haridarshan Sahu, a paddy trader, at Bagdega Square under Bisra Police Station limits in Sundargarh District. On January 17, 2018, Police arrested an active PLFI cadre identified as Kale Dhanwar aka Lal Babu, from Biramitrapur Police Station limits in Sundargarh District.

According to January 6, 2019, report, a total of 16 battalions of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), 41 anti-Maoist Special Operation Group (SOG) teams if the State Police, 848 District Voluntary Force (DVF) troopers, 56 platoons of the India Reserve Battalions, 74 platoons of the State Security Battalion, and 18 platoons of the Odisha Special Striking Force, have been deployed to fight the Naxalites. The State, meanwhile, continues to face a deficit in its Police strength. According to Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, the State had a Police-population ratio (Policemen per hundred thousand population), as on January 1, 2017, of 132.87, significantly lower than the sanctioned strength of 229.19, as well as than the national average of 150.75. The ratio was 130.95 per 100,000 on January 1, 2016. On January 1, 2005, the Police-population ratio of the State was 101.5, again, significantly lower than the then national average of 140.4. These numbers are, likely, significantly exaggerated. According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), which was earlier charged with compiling data on Police organisations in the country, as on December 31, 2004, the Police-population ratio in Odisha was 92, significantly lower than the then national average of 123.  

In addition to several measures taken in past years, the State Government through 2018 launched some new initiatives on the security front. Most importantly, according to a September 24, 2018 report, the Odisha Police has decided to use drone cameras for the surveillance of Naxal activities in LWE-affected areas of the State, specifically the highly affected Malkangiri and Koraput Districts. Director General of Police (DGP) Rajendra Prasad Sharma, on September 23, 2018, thus disclosed, "We will buy some drones in this financial year. The first drone that we are buying will be used for surveillance of severely Naxal-affected Districts to augment security."

Similarly, on July 27, 2018, the Union Government decided to add Angul and Boudh in the list of LWE-affected Districts in order to launch pre-emptive and forward-looking steps to tackle the Maoist rebels.

On the developmental front, State Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik inaugurated the Gurupriya Bridge in Malkangiri District on July 26, 2018. The bridge links the State’s mainland to the erstwhile ‘cut-off area’ of 151 villages and nine Gram Panchayats (village level local self-Government institutions) that were severed when the Machhkund Reservoir was constructed in 1960 and later, the Balimela Hydro Power Project came up in 1972. On the occasion, Patnaik announced a Special Package of INR One billion for the District, but particularly targeting people in the ‘cut off area’. The Package aims at expediting the developmental agenda, including expanding road connectivity, electrification, drinking water supply, healthcare, bridges and fishery.

With the Maoist threat in the State declining, a greater focus on developmental consolidation is necessary, even as the SFs remain alert to any potential rebel resurgence or spill-over from affected areas of neighbouring States, where the Maoists are also coming under pressure.

 
NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
January 14-20, 2019

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

0
1
0
1

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Bihar

2
0
0
2

INDIA (Total)

2
1
0
3

PAKISTAN

 

KP

1
0
4
5

Punjab

3
0
3
6

PAKISTAN (Total)

4
0
7
11
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.
 

AFGHANISTAN

U.S. envoy for Afghan peace reacts to Taliban threats for suspension of talks: On January 16, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Ambassador Zalmay Khalizad reacted to the threats of Taliban group regarding the suspension of peace talks. "If the Talibs want to talk, we can talk. If they want to fight, we can fight. We hope that the Talibs want to make peace," Ambassador Khalilzad has said. Ambassador Khalilzad has further added "But if they (Taliban) do not choose to come to the table, if they choose to continue fighting, the United States will stand with the Afghan people and the Afghan government and support them. We in the coalition are proud of our support to Afghan security forces. Afghan security forces and military pressure are important in this phase." This comes as Taliban had earlier on January 15, issued a statement threatening that the group would suspend talks if Washington refuses the inclusion of troops withdrawal in the agenda of the talks. Khaama Press, January 17, 2019.

No Threat To Any Country From Afghanistan, states Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Afghanistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) Spokesman Sebghat Ahmadi on January 16, insisted that there will be no threat to any country from Afghan soil, as he explained the country's stance on a recent precautionary measure taken by Turkmenistan Defense Ministry. Reports indicate that Turkmenistan Defense Ministry has started recruiting new cadets for its army to prevent a possible threat to its borders by militants in Afghanistan. "We assure all neighboring countries that no country will be threatened from Afghanistan's territory. Our (Afghan) forces are fighting terrorism in Afghanistan and terrorism is being defeated," Ahmadi explained. Tolo News, January 9, 2019.


BANGLADESH

Jatiyo Oikyafront can't sustain, says Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader: Awami League (AL) General Secretary, Obaidul Quader, on January 18, said that Jatiya Oikyafront, the opposition alliance, cannot last as ties between communal and non-communal forces cannot continue. "Elements of split are there [within the Oikyafront], so it cannot exist," he said, adding, "We spotted the splitting factors in the Oikyafront from the beginning." The Daily Star, January 19, 2019.

CEC Rejects TIB findings on the 11th National Election as Baseless: Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) K M Nurul Huda, on January 16, rejected the Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) report on irregularities in the 11th parliamentary polls, terming the report "baseless". The TIB in its study titled "Review of Election Process of 11th National Election" released on January 15, said that irregularities took place in 47 out of the 50 constituencies it surveyed. TIB study claimed that ballot papers stamping took place the night before the election in 33 constituencies, stamping ballots openly after occupying booths in 30 seats on the Election Day and non-availability of ballot papers in 22 constituencies. The study found ballot boxes filled-up before polling even began in 20 constituencies; voters forced to cast ballots for a particular symbol in 26 constituencies, casting of fake votes in 41 seats, silence of the administration and law enforcing agencies in 42 seats and obstructing and driving out polling agents in 29 seats. In the 50 constituencies, not all the polling centres necessarily saw the anomalies. Irregularities happened in one or more centres of a seat. The Daily Star, January 17, 2019.

  
INDIA

Meghalaya Chief Minister urge Union Home Minister to reconsider CAB: Meghalaya Chief Minister (CM), Conrad K. Sangma on January 18 urged Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh to reconsider the passing of Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB), 2016. The CM stated that 'We have expressed our concerns about the Citizenship Amendment Bill. All the coalition partners of the Meghalaya Government as well as Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga have expressed dissatisfaction over the Bill. So, we have asked the Government to reconsider the Bill'. Morung Express, January 18, 2019.

Maoists recruit minor girls, teach them how to use weapons, reveals woman Maoist arrested in Chhattisgarh: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) have now started recruiting girl students in their team, as per a woman Maoist arrested in Dantewada District of Chhattisgarh. Maoist Anita Piyam was arrested after a bus was set on fire on January 16. She revealed that Maoists are eyeing all the girls studying in schools and staying in hostels, ashrams etc. Piyam disclosed that the girls studying at the ashrams and hostels are giving up studies and joining their outfits. Piyam, a member of the Bhairamgarh Area Committee and resident of Belnar, said that she has studied till Class 4 at the Nelasnar Kanya Ashram. After she quit her studies, she started working in a brick kiln along with her parents and came in contact with Maoist 'commander' Sonaru. He included her in the Maoist group. She has been working for the Maoist organisation for the last one year. Piyam further said four-five other girls of the ashram had joined the CPI-Maoist. All of them are working for the Maoists after quitting the studies. Piyam said, not only Nelasnar, but girls of other hostels and ashrams are being lured to join the Maoists. Some of these girls are receiving weapon and firearm training. DB POST, January 17, 2019.

No talks with Pakistan till they stop cross border terrorism, says External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj: External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on January 16 said that there is no question of talks with Pakistan over any issue till they stop cross border terrorism. "Terror and talks cannot go together," she said while stressing that it is the policy of the country that till Pakistan stop cross border terrorism there would be no talks. Daily Excelsior, January 16, 2019.

Won't hesitate from taking strong action against Pakistan, says Army chief General Bipin Rawat: Army chief General Bipin Rawat on January 15 said that India will not hesitate in taking strong action against its neighbour, Pakistan, if it indulged in any 'misadventures' on the border and declared that the Indian Army has inflicted heavy losses, both in terms of lives and infrastructure, on Pakistan in retaliatory firing on the Line of Control (LoC). "If our neighbour doesn't mend its ways, we will not hesitate from taking strong retaliatory action to thwart the inimical moves of the western neighbour aimed against India," General Rawat said without naming Pakistan in his address to the Army jawans on the occasion of Army Day on January 15 in which he declared that the Army was committed to crush militancy in the Kashmir valley. Daily Excelsior, January 16, 2019.  

 
NEPAL

Fate of transitional justice bodies unclear: The fate of the long-delayed transitional justice (TJ) process remains unclear as the extended deadlines of two key commissions formed to settle conflict-era cases is expiring in less than a month. The extended terms of both commissions - Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) - mandated to ensure justice for the conflict victims is expiring on February 9 without any of the two TJ bodies accomplishing the jobs assigned to them. Although the CIEDP reportedly completed preliminary investigations into nearly 85 percent of the total complaints registered with it, the TRC, which has received more than 60,000 complaints, is lagging far behind in investigating the complaints. The Government is pushing amendments to endorse a bill named Transitional Justice Related Act-2018 which was opposed by a larger section of conflict victims and stakeholders in June last year. My Republica, January 14, 2019.

 
MALDIVES

Over 63,000 illegal migrant workers living in Maldives, says Controller General of Immigration, Mohamed Ahmed Hussain: There are currently over 63,000 illegal migrant workers living in the Maldives, Controller General of Immigration, Mohamed Ahmed Hussain (Hanafee) said on January 17. Speaking during a press conference Mohamed Ahmed Hussain said that 144,607 migrants are in the Maldives on a work visa. "Out of them, more than 63,000 are estimated to be living as illegal immigrant workers. An extra quota of 100 migrant workers has been allowed to cafes against regulations. And extra quota of 80 to guesthouses. This has been done without any regard to regulations," said Hanafee, who was appointed Controller General of Immigration on December 23. Maldives Times, January 17, 2019.

PAKISTAN

Military courts needed by nation, not army, states ISPR Director General Asif Gafoor:Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General, Major General Asif Ghafoor on January 18, said the military courts have not been set up on the Army's wish but were needed by the nation and approved by the Parliament following a national and political consensus. "There was a wave of terrorism in the country. After the 2008 military operations gained momentum, many terrorists were arrested. Criminal justice system at that time was not quite effective in dealing with the terrorism cases, hence the military courts were established after a unanimous approval from the Parliament. It was decided through national consensus that military courts should be established and death penalty be revived," Gafoor said. He also said 717 cases were referred to the military courts in the last four years, 646 of which have already been disposed of. Daily Times, January 19, 2019.

US values Pak efforts for Afghan peace, states US Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad: United States Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad met Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 18. Khalilzad, told Qureshi that the US leadership values Pakistan's efforts for peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. Qureshi assured Khalilzad that Pakistan will continue its efforts to facilitate the Afghan reconciliation process to bring peace and stability to the region. "We have a shared responsibility to work towards bringing peace in Afghanistan," the minister said. Daily Times, January 19, 2019.

 
SRI LANKA

TNA to get 'formal say' in North and East development in Sri Lanka, says TNA MP Dharmalingam Sithathdan: Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe agreed to introduce a mechanism to ensure a 'formal say' for the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in the execution of development activities in predominantly Tamil areas in the North and the East, Jaffna District TNA MP (Member of Parliament) Dharmalingam Sithathdan said on January 16. Dharmalingam Sithathdan said the TNA parliamentary group met with the premier last week to discuss the matter. He said the Prime Minister agreed to work out a mechanism for it to be involved in development activities in the North and the East. Daily Mirror, January 17, 2019.  

Mass grave unearths 300 human skeletons in Mannar in Northern Province: Skeletal remains of 300 people and human bones have been unearthed as of January 16 from the mass grave found in Mannar in Mannar District of Northern Province after the grave area has been expanded for a second time since the excavations began on May 28, 2018, Senior Judicial Medical Officer Shaminda Rajapaksa said. The excavations at the mass grave resumed on January 16 after temporarily suspending the activities on January 11. Colombo Page, January 16, 2019.

For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 
 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 
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