South Asia Terrorism Portal

Declining Terror, Persistent Vulnerabilities
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

For the seventh consecutive year, beginning 2012, overall terrorism-linked fatalities across multiple theaters of conflict in India remained in three digits, with 2018 registering a total of 935 fatalities, including 216 civilians, 183 Security Force (SF) personnel, and 536 militants. Such fatalities remained in the four digits for 18 consecutive years between 1994 and 2011, with year 2001 registering a peak 5,839 fatalities (1,693 civilians, 721 SF personnel, and 3,425 militants). 

However, annual fatalities declined for seven consecutive years, between 2006 and 2012, but have followed a cyclical trend thereafter. Terrorism-linked fatalities in 2018 (935 fatalities) increased in comparison to 2017, at 803 fatalities (206 civilians, 170 SF personnel, and 427 SF personnel). In 2016, there were 898 fatalities, as against 722 in 2015, 976 in 2014, 884 in 2013, and 803 fatalities in 2012.

Meanwhile, 84 Districts recorded terrorism/insurgency linked fatalities in 2018 (the same number as in 2017), down from 94 in 2016, 93 in 2015, 100 in 2014, 103 in 2013, and 122 in 2012. Fatalities have already been reported from 37 Districts in 2019 (data till April 21, 2019).

Moreover, the total number of Districts afflicted by chronic conflict variables was down to 170 in 2018, as against 184 in 2017. There were a total of 191 such Districts in 2016; and 205 in both 2014 and 2013.

India presently has a total of 719 Districts.

These numbers clearly indicate that there has been considerable overall improvement in the security situation, but an analysis across different theaters of conflict demonstrates that the gains are not similar.  

Islamist terrorism outside Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) has been contained to a large extent. Pakistan-backed Islamist terror formations, as well as Islamic State (aka Daesh) and Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), the last two of which have been attempting to make inroads since 2014, have failed comprehensively in their ambitions [al Qaeda has, in fact, trying to create a network in India at least since 1996, and established AQIS, dedicated to the South Asian region, in 2014). There was just one Islamist terrorist attack in India, outside J&K, through 2018. It is useful to recall that, in 2008, Islamist terror formations operating out of Pakistan had carried out 10 attacks in India, outside J&K, resulting in 352 fatalities, the largest number recorded in a single year since 2000, when the SATP database commenced tracking such incidents. There is, of course, little room for complacence, particularly in view of the intermittent 'lone wolf attacks' by Daesh-inspired individuals across the globe, and the continuous stream of IS-linked conspiracies and arrests over the past years. According to the SATP database, a total of 167 Daesh sympathizers/recruits have been arrested and another 73 persons have been detained, counselled and released, in India (data till April 21, 2019). Another 98 Indians were believed to have travelled to Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan to join IS – microscopic numbers in terms of the country's huge Muslim population. Of the 98 who travelled abroad to join Daesh, 33 are confirmed to have been killed. The increasing trend of fringe Islamist terror formations in several countries associating with Daesh is a source of concern for India as well.

Insurgent violence in the Northeast region has seen a continuous downward trajectory  with 2018 recording the lowest insurgency-related fatalities since 1992. Incidentally, except for Arunachal Pradesh, all the other six insurgency affected states – Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura – registered a declining trend in fatalities.

The region did, however, witness multiple and widespread agitations and a tendency to increasing ethnic and communal polarisation through 2018 and thereafter due to several factors, most prominently including the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of India’s Parliament) on January 8, 2019, and the preceding troubles over the National Register of Citizens. The agitations even jeopardised ongoing peace talks with the ULFA-Pro Talks Faction (ULFA-PTF), and also saw a number of other erstwhile militant organizations across the region strongly opposing CAB.

The Maoist insurgency is also on a decline, though fatalities increased from 333 (109 civilians, 74 SF personnel, 150 Naxalites) in 2017 to 413 (109 civilians, 73 SF personnel, 231 Naxalites) in 2018, essentially as a result of increasing fatalities in Maoist ranks. SFs secured an improved kill ratio in 2018, at 1:3.16, as against 1:2.02 in 2017. The 2018 ratio is the second best recorded since the SATP database commenced tracking the conflict, after 3.69, in 2016.

Nevertheless, the intermittent and audacious attacks of the recent past clearly indicate that the Maoists still possess the wherewithal, albeit diminishing, to strike at will. Cadres of the Communist Party of India–Maoist (CPI-Maoist) triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast and subsequently opened fire, targeting the convoy of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA), Bhima Mandavi, in a forested patch near Nakulnar village under the Kuwakonda tehsil (revenue unit) of Dantewada District in Chhattisgarh’s ailing Bastar Division, on April 9, 2019. Those killed included MLA Mandavi and his three Personal Security Officers (PSOs), as well as the constable-driver.

There have also been some worries in Punjab in recent times. Between 2008 and 2015, Khalistani terrorists failed to inflict even a single fatality in the State, but three years in a row, between 2016 and 2018, lethal terrorist strikes have been mounted. The grenade attack at Nirankari Bhavan on November 18, 2018, which resulted in three fatalities, was the last incident in a chain of efforts to revive Khalistani terrorism in the Punjab.

It is, however, J&K that has recorded the most significant surge in violence, after an extended phase of declining violence between 2001 and 2012. Total fatalities recorded J&K in 2018, at 451, are the highest after 2008, at 541. Worryingly, fatalities among civilians, at 86 in 2018, are also the highest in this category since 2007, at 164. Indeed, with an intensifying polarization and intentional political destabilization, the State appears to be headed towards a heightened phase of terrorism.

Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh while addressing the Inaugural Session of the Conference of Directors and Inspectors General of Police in Gujarat on December 20, 2018, thus observed,

The Minister further stated, in the context of J&K,

The Government of India (GoI) as well as respective states affected by Insurgencies in the Northeast, the Maoist belt, terrorism in J&K and in Punjab, have adopted several measures through 2018, as in the past. The Central Government also, initiated several schemes to further strengthen India’s existing internal security apparatus. On December 12, 2018, GoI disclosed that it had sanctioned the raising of six additional battalions of the Borders Security Force (BSF) on January 1, 2018. All these battalions have since been raised for deployment. A proposal to raise additional battalions in ITBP is also under consideration. Though an April 30, 2018, report stated that four new CRPF battalions with 1,148 staffs in each battalion will be raised at Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Group Centres at Neemuch, Avadi, Rangareddy and Amethi, there is no further information available in this regard. The Government, however, informed Parliament on February 12, 2019, that “at present there is no decision of the Government to raise additional battalions in Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)”. Earlier, on April 4, 2018, the Union Government informed Parliament,

Nevertheless, wide deficiencies persist. There has been no decisive improvement since the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, after which the Government had declared its intention to bring about radical transformation. The first responders to any terrorist threat, the Police Force, remain enormously neglected. While the Police-Population ratio was 134.3 (policeman per 100000 population) as on January 2, 2009, it has crept up to an arguable 150.75 by 2017 (as on January 1, 2017, the latest data available), much lower than the a 'desirable' Police-population ratio of 220 per 100,000 for ‘peacetime policing’. The number of vacancies across the country in the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) has actually increased over time. On July 19, 2018, Union Minister of State for Personnel Jitendra Singh, in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha, disclosed that there were 970 vacancies in the IPS or 19.64 per cent of the total 4,940 posts. As on January 1, 2010, of 4,013 authorised posts, in the IPS, just 3,383 were in position, leaving a deficit of 16.7 per cent.

Moreover, huge vacancies persist in the entire Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), which have been increasingly used as lead counter-insurgency Forces in the country: 166,896 vacant posts as on January 1, 2017, against a sanctioned strength of 1,154,393 (actual strength: 987,497). In 2010, the total vacancies were 100,830 (sanctioned strength 874,483, actual strength 773,653).

More worryingly, the implementation lag on decisions related to security is getting longer, as underlined in a report submitted by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) to the Parliament on April 5, 2018, where referring to Coastal Security Scheme Phase II (CSS II) it sated,

While the SFs have been able to bring down the level of terrorism/insurgency across most of the afflicted regions over the past few years, political mischief both at State as well as the Central level has allowed threats to persist and, in some cases, escalate. The Governments lethargic approach towards capacity building remains a major impediment to sustaining and consolidating the gains secured at great cost and sacrifice.

Oasis of Peace
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In the entire South Asian region, Bhutan is the only country which has remained free of even a single terrorism-related fatality, or for that matter, incident, for over a decade. Specifically, on December 30, 2008, four Bhutanese foresters were killed and another two injured after their tractor was blown up by an improvised explosive device (IED) planted on the road about four kilometres west of Singay village in the Sarpang District.

Between, September 5, 2004, and December 30, 2008, Bhutan recorded a total of 13 fatalities, including eight civilians and five militants. The first incident involving a fatality took place on September 5, 2004, when two persons were killed and 27 sustained injuries in a bomb explosion at the Sunday market shopping area of Gelephu town.

Between September 5, 2004 and the present (data till April 21, 2019), according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), South Asia (including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) as a region recorded 126,755 terrorism/insurgency linked fatalities (including 44,482 civilians, 15,614 Security Forces, SF, personnel and 66,659 militants). Of these, Bhutan accounted for a mere 0.01 per cent (the data does not include fatalities in Afghanistan and the Maldives). 

Unsurprisingly, according to the Global Terrorism Index 2018, Bhutan is ranked at 135 among 163 countries in the list, towards the bottom, among the most peaceful countries. In the 2015 index Bhutan was placed at the 107^th position (out of 162 countries). In the very first index published in 2012, which mapped and ranked countries based on the terror incidents that were reported from 2002 to 2011, Bhutan was ranked 72 out of 158 countries.

The prevailing peace has helped Bhutan’s overall development. According to a 2018 United Nations document, Bhutan’s GDP has more than tripled in the last 10 years (2008-18) alone, and per capita income has increased to USD 2,719. Poverty in Bhutan more than halved between 2007-2012, and reduced even further thereafter. According to the Asian Development Bank, the population living below the national poverty line in Bhutan fell to 8.2 percent in 2017 as against 12 percent in 2012.

Nevertheless, a few lingering issues remain unresolved and remind the people of Bhutan of a relatively turbulent, albeit brief, phase in the past. Among these is the issue of repatriation.

According to reports, around 6,500 Lhotshampa (Bhutanese of Nepalese decent) refugees were still living in two camps in the Jhapa District of Nepal.  Approximately 105,000 Lhotshampa were expelled in the 1990s due to implementation of the Citizenship Act of 1985 and the subsequent nation-wide Census of 1988. Notably, the Lhotshampas refugees in Nepal had helped the Bhutan Communist Party – Marxist-Leninist-Maoist (BCP-MLM) grow and foment trouble in Himalayan Kingdom. The BCP-MLM has been dormant since 2010 when it, along with other ‘political parties in exile’, formed an umbrella group and vowed to pursue a unified democratic movement led by Rongthong Kunley Dorji. Dorji died on October 19, 2011, and was replaced by Kesang Lhendup as the new President of the Druk National Congress on December 18, 2011. In a 2012 interview, Lhendup, when asked about the future plans, stated that the organization would “continue to take forward the unfinished works of our late President for the establishment of inclusive democracy in Bhutan…”

In February 2019, after more than a decade, Nepal has decided to hold the 16^th round of ministerial-level talks with Bhutan to repatriate the remaining 6,500 Lhotshampa. The 15^th round, held on December 22, 2003, had failed. After the breakdown of talks in 2003, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees helped resettle over 112,800 Bhutanese refugees of Nepali origin, then staying in Nepal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Another issue of concern was the existence of camps of Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) operating in the northeast in Bhutan or along the Indo-Bhutan border. Though the presence of camps of IIGs in Bhutan is no longer reported, violent Bodo militants do use the Indo-Bhutan border to carry out insurgent activities. Consequently, India’s Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has approved the laser-based aerial mapping of the Indo-Bhutan border along Assam. Reports suggest that the difficult terrain along the border has become a significant hideout for insurgents, especially members of the banned Saoraigwra faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB–S). Intelligence agencies believe top leaders of the group are hiding somewhere along the Indo-Bhutan border. It is useful to recall here, that Bhutan had carried out operation all clear in 2003, expelling a number of Indian insurgent formations then operating from its soil.

Meanwhile, Bhutan held its third National Assembly Elections on October 18, 2018. The Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) party won the elections, securing 30 of the total of 47 seats. Lotay Tshering, the President of DNT, became the new Prime Minister of Bhutan. The Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT), which bagged 17 seats [and that had won the maiden elections in 2008] assumed the role of the main opposition party for the second consecutive term. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which also contested the elections, failed to qualify for the second round of elections and consequently to win any seat. PDP garnered 27.2 per cent of votes in the first round, while DNT and DPT registered 32 per cent and 31 per cent votes, respectively, entering the second round of polls. According to Bhutan’s Constitution, only two political parties can take part in the final round of General Elections. In 2013, PDP, had won 32 seats and emerged victorious, while DPT, with 15 seats, had assumed the role of the opposition.

Bhutan has largely been an exception in an otherwise violence-riven South Asian region. Constant vigil and cooperation in the security sphere with neighbours will be necessary to ensure that this remains the case.