South Asia Terrorism Portal
Manipur: Ethnic Cauldron Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 9, 2024, two civilians, Jangminlal and Jangminlen, were brutally assaulted by armed militants suspected to be Kuki Revolutionary Army-Unification (KRA-U) cadres, at Motbung Bazaar under the Sapermeina Police Station in the Kangpokpi District of Manipur. They succumbed to their injuries on the same day. KRA-U militants came to Motbung Bazar from their nearby camp and started beating some youths mercilessly on the charge of being suspected drug users. A third person sustained multiple injuries during the incident.
On February 23, 2024, one civilian, Oinam Kenegy (24), was killed and another two sustained injuries in an Impoverished Explosive Device (IED) explosion outside DM College at Thangmeiband in the Imphal West District of Manipur.
On February 13, 2024, two village volunteers, Sagolsem Loya (25) and Likmabam Damocha (28), were killed and another three sustained injuries in exchanges of gunfire with Kuki militants at various villages, including Khamelok, Pukhao Shantipur, Shabungkhok Khunou, Sangrram, Khamelok, Sanasabi, Saibol Maning, and Simol, along the borders of the Imphal East and Kangpokpi Districts of Manipur. At least two Kuki militants were also killed in the gun battles.
According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, Manipur has already recorded 27 insurgency-linked fatalities - 23 civilians, two Security Force (SF) personnel and two militants - in 15 incidents in 2024 (Data till March 17).
In 2023, Manipur recorded 163 insurgency-linked fatalities - 72 civilians, 73 terrorists, 17 SF personnel and one in the non-specified (NS) category - in 77 incidents. In 2022, Manipur recorded just seven insurgency-linked fatalities - five civilians, one trooper and one terrorist - in seven incidents. The 2022 tally was the lowest number of fatalities recorded in a year (along with 2020), since 1992, from when insurgency-related data is available for the state.
The sudden spike commenced after the outbreak of ethnic clashes between the Kuki and Meitei communities, first in the Churachandpur District of the State on May 3, 2023. The clashes spread rapidly across the state and continue till date. The outbreak was triggered by the Manipur High Court's decision in April 2023 directing the State Government to take a decision on the demand to include the majority Meitei community in the list of Scheduled Tribes (ST) 'within four weeks'. Inclusion in the category would give Meiteis several advantages, such as government employment quotas, and would remove the legal restriction that prevents them from purchasing land in the state's Hill areas, which are predominantly inhabited by the Kukis, the Nagas and a smattering of other tribal communities. Protests by Kukis soon escalated into full-fledged riots on both sides, with reports of looting, arson and mass killings.
Indeed, prior to the outbreak of the clashes on May 3, 2023, between January 1 and May 2, 2023, Manipur had recorded four insurgency-linked fatalities (one civilian and three insurgents). On the other hand, between May 3, 2023 and December 31, 2023, 159 fatalities (71 civilians, 17 troopers and 70 insurgents, one Not Specified) were recorded. As mentioned above, another 27 fatalities have been added in 2024 thus far.
Significantly, on February 28, 2024, Manipur Governor Anusuiya Uikey revealed that 219 people have been killed in ethnic violence in Manipur since May 2023. No further details were provided, and it is likely that there would be some overlap with the SATP category of insurgency-linked fatalities.
On March 5, 2024, Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh disclosed that a total of 1,555 individuals sustained injuries during the violence. This included 1,429 civilians, 98 police personnel, and 28 Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) personnel. Of these, 334 individuals suffered gunshot wounds. The Chief Minister also stated that, of the 63 missing persons cases documented, 26 individuals were discovered deceased, while nine were successfully located alive. However, 28 persons still remain missing. Earlier, on March 1, 2024, Chief Minister Singh had stated that, since May 3, 2023, a total of 12 SF personnel - nine State Police forces and three CAPF personnel - had lost their lives while another 167 - 98 state police and 69 CAPF personnel - sustained injuries. He added that no government records were lost during the crisis and that about 80 per cent of government records had been digitized and government documents, especially in the border town of Moreh, were kept in a secure place.
The level violence of violence has subsided considerably - of the total of 186 fatalities since May 3, 2023, 131 fatalities were recorded in the first five months. However, the current scenario in the State is far from satisfying, with occasional incidents of killings of civilians as well as SFs at the hands of insurgents or unidentified assailants, continue to occur.
The relative improvement in the situation is due to some operational successes by the SFs. 44 militants - including nine of the Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL); seven of the Kangleipak Communist Party-People's War Group (KCP-PWG); six of the United National Liberation Front (UNLF); four each of the People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) and Kangleipak Communist Party-Noyon faction (KCP-N); three each of the United People's Party of Kangleipak (UPPK), Koireng faction of United national Liberation Front (UNLF-K) and UNLF-Pambei faction (UNLF-P); two of the KCP-Taibanganba faction; and one each of the and Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), KCP-Lamyanba Khuman faction and National Revolutionary Front of Manipur (NRFM) - have already been arrested in Manipur in 2024. Between May 3, 2023 and December 31, 2023, 59 militants were arrested - including UNLF, 12; KCP, 10; KCP-PWG, eight; United Kuki Liberation Front (UKLF), seven; PREPAK and Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA), four each; People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak-Progressive (PREPAK-Pro), three; Kuki Liberation Army (KLA) and People's Liberation Army (PLA), two each; and one each of KYKL, Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA), National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), Kuki National Organisation (KNO), Kangleipak Communist Party-Noyon faction (KCP-N), UNLF-P and Kuki National Army (KNA). 10 militants also surrendered between May 3, 2023, and December 31, 2023, including five each of KCP-N and PLA.
72 insurgents have been killed between May 3, 2023 and March 17, 2024. In the preceding period corresponding - June 20, 2022 to May 2, 2023 - three militants were killed.
Significantly, on November 29, 2023, the Government of India (GoI) and Government of Manipur signed a Peace Agreement with the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), in New Delhi. UNLF was the deadliest among all the active insurgent groups in Manipur. Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah termed the signing of the peace agreement a "historic milestone." He expressed the hope that this would encourage other Valley-based insurgent groups (VBIGs) to participate in a peace process. Interestingly, just 10 days earlier, in a notification dated November 13, 2023, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) had extended the ban on valley-based Meitei Insurgent Groups, including UNLF, stating that these groups were "engaging in activities prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of India and employing and engaging in armed means to achieve their objectives." Other Meitei rebel groups include PLA and its political wing, the Revolutionary Peoples' Front (RPF); UNLF's armed wing, the Manipur Peoples' Army (MPA); PREPAK and its armed wing, the Red Army; KCP and its armed wing, also called the Red Army; KYKL; the umbrella Coordination Committee (CorCom); and the Alliance for Socialist Unity Kangleipak (ASUK).
Earlier, on March 10, 2023, the Manipur government had decided to withdraw from the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with two Kuki militant groups - KNA and ZRA. The remaining 23 Kuki groups, which had simultaneously entered into SoO agreements in August 2008, remain under these agreements.
On February 28, 2024, Manipur Governor Anusuiya Uikey revealed that 198 CAPF companies and 140 Army columns had been deployed, along with State Police Forces, to maintain law and order in the State.
Meanwhile, on September 27, 2023, the Government extended the imposition of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in the whole State of Manipur - except in the jurisdiction of 19 Police Stations in seven Districts of the Imphal Valley - for another six months.
Manipur is going through a difficult time of ethnic strife between the Kuki and Meitei communities. Insurgents from both the Kuki and Meitei communities have taken advantage of the situation, resulting in a surge in insurgency-linked incidents. The signing of the Peace Agreement with UNLF is a significant, but in the inflamed environment of the state, unlikely to bring the present disturbances to any proximate end. There is, moreover, little evidence of political mischief being brought to an end, with aggressive ethnic 'social organisations' taking the lead in escalating the polarizing narrative, initially pushed by Chief Minister Singh, and then adopted by extremists on both sides of the ethnic divide. Sage political intervention is urgently required to stop the State from returning to its history of violent insurgency but there is little evidence of such initiatives in sight.
Political Uncertainties Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 13, 2024, ending political uncertainty, Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire, amidst cheers from the ruling coalition members announced, "The Prime Minister has won the vote of confidence
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda received 157 votes in his favour in the 275-member House of Representatives (HoR). Among those who voted for Dahal were 75 lawmakers from the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), 32 from the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Center), 21 from the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), 12 from the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), 10 from the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist), four from the Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP), one (each) from the Aam Janata Party (AJP), and independent lawmakers Amaresh Kumar Singh and Yogendra Mandal. Among those voting against him were 87 lawmakers from the NC, 13 from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), five from the Janamat Party, four from the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), and one lawmaker from the Rastriya Jana Morcha (RJM). The Nepal Workers and Peasants Party's Prem Suwal abstained from the vote. 268 lawmakers were present in the House.
Prime Minister Dahal had to take a vote of confidence under Article 100(2) of the Constitution of Nepal after the NC's withdrawal of support to the then ruling coalition, on March 4, 2024.
Interestingly, Prachanda's new political alliance is with the CPN-UML led by former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli. The current coalition, which commands a comfortable majority, comprises the CPN-UML, the CPN-Maoist Center, the RSP, the JSP and the CPN-Unified Socialist.
On March 12, 2024, CPN-UML's Oli, CPN-Maoist's Dahal, Chairperson of CPN-Unified Socialist Madhav Kumar Nepal, Chairperson of RSP Rabi Lamichhane, and JSP chair Upendra Yadav, had signed a seven-point agreement to support the Dahal government and make it successful. The first point of the agreement read,
Other points of the agreement include, inter alia, all the tasks relating to the peace process, including amending the transitional justice law; preparing laws needed for effective implementation of federalism; making all three tiers of government effective; preparation of a common minimum programme to guide the government's performance; and an agreement to move to forward while protecting and promoting sovereignty and national integrity.
Earlier, on February 18, 2024, during a meeting of the Samajwadi Morcha (Socialist Front), a coalition of five left-leaning political parties [the CPN-Maoist Center, JSP, CPN-Unified Socialist, and the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand)], Netra Bikram Chand aka Biplav was made the coordinator of the Front. The Front was previously led by the Prime Minister and Chairman of CPN-Maoist Center, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and the Chairman of CPN-Unified Socialist, Madhav Kumar Nepal.
It is noteworthy that Dahal, who became PM on December 26, 2022, had gone for the customary floor test for the first time on January 10, 2023. Dahal had then received 268 votes. Two lawmakers voted against him. A total of 270 lawmakers were present.
On February 27, 2023, CPN-UML exited the coalition, forcing Dahal to take a vote of confidence from the House of Representatives for the second time. In the second vote of confidence, on March 20, 2023, Dahal received 172 votes in the 275-member Parliament. 89 lawmakers voted against the motion, while Prem Suwal, the lone lawmaker from the Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party, remained neutral. A total of 262 lawmakers were present.
Though political uncertainties have long been a regular feature, the country remains free of terrorism. The last terrorism-linked fatality was recorded on December 8, 2020, when a teacher, Rajendra Shrestha, was shot dead by Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) cadres in the Miklajung Rural Municipality in Morang District of Province No. 1. There were 13 fatalities in 2019 (three civilians, two Security Force (SF) personnel and eight extremists), all linked to CPN-Maoist-Chand. Violence had surged in 2019, after a lull of almost six years, between 2013 and 2018, during which Nepal recorded just two fatalities (both civilians, in 2013). Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data, a total of 3,926 incidents of killing were recorded, resulting in 14,070 fatalities including 1,179 civilians, 2,388 SF personnel, 10,299 Maoist rebels, and 204 deaths that remained unspecified. At peak in 2002, the insurgency resulted in 5,606 fatalities, including 210 civilians, 710 SF personnel, 4,654 Maoist rebels, and 32 in the unspecified category.
The last violent incident in the country was reported on March 14, 2021, when nine people were injured in an Improvised Explosive Device in the Land Revenue Office based in Lahan, Siraha District, Province No. 2. The device exploded on the first floor of the office at around 1 pm [NST].
Though Maoist violence in the country came to an end in 2006 after the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, other violent groups emerged in the Terai region thereafter, leading to sustained armed conflict till 2012. Though these groups lost their relevance under relentless pressure by the SFs, CPN-Maoist-Chand, formed on December 1, 2014, after splitting from the Communist Party of Nepal (Revolutionary Maoist) headed by Mohan Baidya, emerged as a threat thereafter.
On March 12, 2019, the then K. P. Sharma Oli government banned CPN-Maoist-Chand. Two years later, on March 4, 2021, the then Oli government lifted the ban on the Chand party's activities and signed a three-point deal with the group, bringing the last of the active armed outfits in the country into mainstream politics. The three-point agreement, signed by then Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and Communist Party of Nepal spokesperson Khadga Bahadur Bishwakarma, thus stated, inter alia:
Thus, as of now, the country has no active insurgent group.
Insurgency has died out in Nepal, and there is very little chance of a resurgence of armed conflict in the foreseeable future, but political uncertainty and volatility have always kept the Himalayan country at risk. The political classes as well as the people have to display extraordinary patience and trust in the necessity of strengthening democracy, addressing existing distortions and discrepancies, to establish a process of peaceful democratic progression.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 11-17, 2024
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
75 per cent of Afghan girls denied education, say UNESCO: The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in its report stated that Afghanistan is among the ten countries where the majority of girls are deprived of going to schools and 75% of them are deprived of education. UNESCO said, "Among these ten countries, nine from Africa and Afghanistan have the highest rate of girls' lack of access to schools. Afghanistan ranks tenth on this list. At least 50% of girls cannot go to school, and in Afghanistan, 75% of girls do not have the opportunity to attend school." Tolo News, March 12, 2024.
Government of India bans Jammu Kashmir National Front: On March 13, Government of India (GoI) imposed a five-year ban on the Jammu Kashmir National Front (JKNF). The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) declared the JKNF headed by Nayeem Ahmad Khan an "unlawful association" with immediate effect under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act. Khan was among the first separatist leaders to be arrested by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) in a terror funding case. Daily Excelsior, March 13, 2024.
Pakistan, Afghanistan agree to expand 'counter-terrorism' cooperation: Pakistan and Afghanistan Government on March 16 agreed to expand "counter-terrorism" cooperation and continue working together in building fraternal bilateral relations. The development came during a telephonic conversation between Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and his Afghanistan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi. Geo TV, March 17, 2024.
Special Security Force for sensitive installations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Government on March 13 said it is considering to set up a Special Security Force for permanent deployment at sensitive installations in the province. The proposal about "Security Division" came under discussion in a meeting chaired by Chief Minister Ali Amin Khan Gandapur. Officials told Dawn that the proposed Special Security Force would comprise new recruits as well as personnel of the Frontier Reserve Police, and it would be permanently deployed at sensitive installations, including the Chief Minister's House, Governor's House, prisons, civil secretariat, and other key buildings. Dawn, March 15, 2024.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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