South Asia Terrorism Portal
Nagaland: Challenges To Peace Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 21, 2024, a 'deputy leader' of National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), 'Kilonser' Khampei Opeiham Konyak, was shot dead by a group of six unidentified assailants, at his residence in Tizit in the Mon District of Nagaland, near the Assam-Arunachal border. The NSCN-IM leader reportedly succumbed to a suspected inter-factional assassination. Konyak had a complex history of affiliations, having defected from the Yung Yang faction of the NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K-YA) to join the Ang Mai faction of NSCN-K, before eventually surrendering to the Assam Rifles in 2023. He later joined the NSCN-IM in October 2023.
This is the lone fatality recorded in Nagaland in 2024, till date (all data till February 25)
In 2023, Nagaland recorded three fatalities (all militants), all in inter/intra-factional clashes:
No fatality was recorded in Nagaland in 2022, while there were four insurgency-linked fatalities (three civilians and one terrorist) in 2021. Since March 6, 2000, when South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) started compiling data, Nagaland has recorded a total of 830 fatalities: 191 civilians, 22 Secuirty Force (SF) personnel, 603 terrorists and 14 in the not-specified (NS) category.
Not surprisingly, on September 26, 2023, responding to the improved security scenario in the state, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) removed the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from the jurisdiction of three Police stations in the Wokha and Zunheboto Districts of Nagaland. AFSPA was extended across the whole of eight Districts, and in 21 Police stations in five other Districts, of Nagaland for another six months, down from nine Districts earlier. The eight Districts are Dimapur, Niuland, Chumoukedima, Mon, Kiphire, Noklak, Phek and Peren.
The security situation in the state has improved gradually over the years, as overall fatalities, which remained in three digits between 1993 and 2000, dropped to two digits between 2001 and 2015, with the exceptions of 2007 and 2008 when they again touched three digits. However, since 2016, after the signing of the Framework Agreement on August 5, 2015, between the Government of India (GoI) and NSCN-IM, the security situation in the state has witnessed dramatic improvement, and fatalities have since remained in single digits.
There were two arrests in 2024 (a cadre each of NSCN-IM and NSCN-K) in two separate incidents. These were in addition to 36 arrests in 17 incidents in 2023: 19 NSCN-IM, 10 NSCN-K-Nikki Summi (NSCN-K-NS), three NSCN-K-YA, two NSCN-K and one each of the Khango Konyak led faction of NSCN-K (NSCN-K2) and NSCN-Reformation (NSCN-R). There were three arrests [two NSCN-Unification (NSCN-U), and one NSCN-K2-Issac] in two separate incidents in 2022.
Nagaland recorded five surrenders in 2024 [four Naga National Council-Non Accordist (NNC-NA) and one NSCN-K]. In 2023, there were 14 surrenders in five separate incidents [Kamatpur Liberation Organisation (KLO), nine; NSCN-K, three and NSCN-U, two].
The activities of Naga insurgents continue to affect the neighbouring states. In Arunachal Pradesh, Changlang and Longding Districts remain the operating grounds for Naga militants. The NSCN-K-YA, the most active group in Arunachal Pradesh, works in alliance with other militant groups, such as the United Liberation Front of Assam - Independent (ULFA-I). Recently on February 18, 2024, ten workers employed at the Finboro coal mine in Changlang District of Arunachal Pradesh, were abducted for the failure to meet extortion demands by suspected militants of NSCN-K-YA and ULFA-I. Sources stated that a group of seven armed militants held the workers at gunpoint and transported them in a dumper truck towards Old Longtoi, a remote location within Arunachal Pradesh. SFs later rescued seven of the 10 coal miners, while the remaining three were still missing at the time of writing.
In Manipur, the NSCN-IM has been involved in clashes with the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), which signed a peace accord with GoI on December 27, 2022. ZUF is a splinter group of the NSCN-IM, formed in 2011.Several incidents between the groups occurred in 2023. Some of the notable incidents included:
Thus, despite improvements in the security situation since the signing of the Framework Agreement, activities of Naga groups have not come to a complete halt.
While signing the Framework Agreement and on several occasions thereafter, GoI has reiterated that the Naga issue would be resolved 'soon'. For instance, on February 20, 2023, Union Home Minister Amit Shah reiterated, "Our aim is to make peace talks successful and solve Naga political problem quickly." The negotiations linger on, despite this, as both NSCN-IM and GoI adopt an unyielding and opposite stance on the issues of a separate flag and constitution.
Indeed, on December 9, 2023, NSCN-IM reiterated its demand for a separate flag and a separate constitution for the Naga people as part of any peace agreement:
NSCN-IM also claimed that the representatives of GoI had initially agreed to a separate Naga flag and constitution. However, they later backtracked on the commitment.
Again, on January 31, 2024, on the occasion of its 45th Raising Day celebration, NSCN-IM's 'chairman' Q. Tuccu declared that NSCN remained steadfast on its commitment to the Naga political issue even in the face of the rapidly changing times:
Nevertheless, in pursuit of the goal of long-lasting peace in the areas impacted by the Naga insurgency, GoI has extended ceasefire agreements with a number of the Naga insurgent groups, in continues with the peace talks. For instance, on September 6, 2023, NSCN-K-NS, and GoI decided to extend the Ceasefire Agreement signed between the two for another year, with effect from September 8, 2023, to September 7, 2024. GoI and NSCN-K-NS first entered into a Ceasefire Agreement on September 8, 2021, for one year, enabling the latter to formally join the Indo-Naga peace process. The Agreement was later extended in September 2022.
Meanwhile, on December 30, 2023, three Naga groups - the Akato Chophy-led NSCN, the Khango-led NSCN-K and the Z. Royim-led NNC - decided on a "joint political venture" and to engage in political talks with GoI. Akato disclosed that his group and NSCN-K had mutually entered into an agreement, and later, the Khango and Z. Royim factions had signed another agreement. The "joint political venture" is intended to initiate collaborative efforts from 2024, focusing on mutual support and shared objectives in their engagement with the Union Government.
Even though Nagaland's security situation has improved, a number of issues persist. The peace process is yet to reach a conclusion due to the NSCN-IM's refusal to budge on the question of a distinct flag and constitution. At the same time, NSCN-IM's on-going activities on the ground are a matter of serious concern. The potential of breakaway NSCN groups to operate in other Northeastern states, which could have a cascading effect on these states, also needs to be neutralized. The Naga insurgency has been the 'mother of all insurgencies' in Northeast, and it is imperative that all these conflicting interests and concerns be brought to a practical, sustainable and comprehensive resolution.
Maharashtra: Ineffective 'Revival' Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 19, 2024, during a search operation, Police recovered a pressure cooker bomb, weighing two kilograms, planted by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres at Kotgul in the Bhamragarh tehsil (revenue unit) of Gadchiroli District. The explosive was buried in the ground in the forest, with the apparent intention of targeting the Security Forces (SFs).
On February 7, 2024, an encounter took place between the Maoists and the Police at the Narayanpur-Gadchiroli-Kanker junction, along the Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh border, on the outskirts of Hiddur village in Gadchiroli District. While the Maoists managed to escape, the Police recovered wire bundles, Improvised Explosive Device (IED) batteries, detonators, hooks for claymore mines, and solar panels, from the site of the encounter. Police said the Maoists were camping there to target the newly opened Police outposts at Wangeturi and Gardewada.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in their constant fight against the Naxalites (Left-Wing Extremists, LWEs) the SFs had foiled Maoist designs and recovered arms and ammunition on six occasions in 2023, as against four such occasions in 2022. Such recoveries were made on 14 occasions in 2021, 11 in 2020 and 10 in 2019. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting data on LWE-linked violence across the country, such recoveries have been made on 152 occasions.
Meanwhile, according to the SATP database, Maharashtra recorded 11 fatalities (five civilians and six Maoists) in Maoist-related violence in 2023, compared to seven fatalities (five civilians and two Maoists) in 2022. Though there was a 57.14 per cent spike in overall fatalities, reflecting a worrying development, a closer analysis of the numbers suggests that the situation on the ground has actually remained under control. No fatality has been recorded thus far in 2024 (data till February 25, 2024).
Significantly, without losing a single trooper, SFs, killed six Maoists in 2023. Similarly, in 2022, two Maoists were killed, though no SF fatality was recorded. SFs killed 49 Maoists in 2021, without losing any of their own personnel. Prior to 2021, the best ever SF: Maoist kill ratio, 1:25.5, favouring the SFs was recorded in 2018. Since March 6, 2000, the overall SF: Maoist kill ratio in the State has favoured the SFs at 1:1.92 (SFs killed: 170, Maoists killed: 327). The last SF fatality in the state, meanwhile, was recorded on August 14, 2020, when a Policeman was killed while another policeman was injured as a Maoists 'action team' fired at them in a market at Kothi village under Bhamragad tehsil (revenue unit) in Gadchiroli District.
Though the number of civilian fatalities remained the same, at five, in both 2023 and 2022, and at four each in 2020 and 2021, these were well below the recent high of 19 recorded in 2019. A maximum of 36 fatalities in this category was recorded in 2011. A total of 201 civilians have been killed in the state since March 6, 2000.
Geographically, all fatalities in 2023 were confined to Gadchiroli, the epicenter of Maoist violence in Maharashtra. In 2022 also, all fatalities were reported from Gadchiroli alone. Since March 6, 2000, of the total of 710 Maoist-linked fatalities in the state, Gadchiroli alone recorded 694 fatalities - 97.74 per cent - (192 civilians, 166 SF personnel, 324 Naxalites, and 12 fatalities in the unspecified category). The other districts that recorded fatalities were Gondia, with seven (five civilians and two SF personnel); Bhandara with three (one civilian and two SF personnel); Nagpur, two (one civilian and one Naxalite); and Aurangabad, one civilian. The exact location of another three fatalities (one civilian and two Maoists) remains unspecified.
An analysis of overground and underground activities in Maharashtra confirms that the Maoists were active in only two districts in 2023. Only the Gadchiroli District fell in the 'highly affected' category, while Gondia was 'marginally affected.' In 2022, Gadchiroli was in the 'moderately affected' category and Gondia was marginally affected. Maharashtra has a total of 36 districts.
Meanwhile, SFs arrested seven Naxalites in 2023, in addition to 13 arrested in 2022, according to the SATP database. Since March 6, 2000, the total number of arrests stands at 481. Mounting SF pressure also yielded the surrender of five Naxalites in 2023, in addition to eight in 2022. Since March 6, 2000, there has been a total of 294 surrenders. In the current year, on January 21, 2024, Santosh Vasant Shelar alias Vishwa alias Painter (33), a CPI-Maoist 'deputy commander', who disappeared from Pune in 2010, surrendered to the Pune Police in the Pune District. Shelar had been ill for the preceding few days and had come to Pune.
The State did not record any incident of explosion in 2023, as well as in 2022. The last incident of explosion was recorded on May 1, 2019, in the ambush of the C-60 personnel at Jambhulkheda village.
Incidents of arson carried out by the rebels fell from three in 2022 to one in 2023. Moreover, overall Maoist-linked incidents fell from 27 in 2022 to 21 in 2023.
On February 17, 2024, Director General of Police (DGP) Rashmi Shukla claimed that Police camps have reached areas that were once considered Naxal strongholds in Gadchiroli and that the menace would 'soon be eradicated with the support of citizens'. Speaking during her visit to Gardewada village, an area once deeply affected by LWE, where a Police post was set up on January 15, 2024, DGP Shukla thus said,
The state government was also reaching out to people from the region with various welfare schemes, DGP Shukla added.
Earlier, on November 21, 2023, more than 2,000 SF personnel erected a 'ballistics-proof' Police Post at Wangeturi village in the Etapalli Taluka of Gadchiroli District. The Police Post covers 19 villages in the Etapalli Taluka and will help C-60 commandos conduct road-opening missions on foot, and will help avert ambushes or Maoist boobytraps while crossing into Maharashtra from the Chhattisgarh side during joint inter-state 'sanitization' operations.
Despite promising security and developmental components, critical security gaps in capacities and deployment persist in the State. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as of January 1, 2022, Maharashtra's Police-population ratio, at 136.45 per 100,000, is significantly below the national average of 152.80, which itself remains substantially below the minimum of 222:100,000 regarded as desirable for 'peacetime policing'. Further, the Police/Area Ratio (number of Policemen per 100 square kilometres) for Maharashtra is 55.43, as against the sanctioned strength of 75.71. The all-India ratio is 63.70, as against a sanction of 81.80 per 100 square kilometres. The sanctioned strength for the States' Police is 232,965, but 170,570 personnel were in position, yielding a vacancy of 62,395. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State is 317, but just 276 officers were in position, leaving 41 posts vacant.
Significantly, reports indicate Maoist efforts to re-establish their influence and impact in their erstwhile areas of activity and dominance.
According to a February 6, 2024, report, the Maoists were planning to carry out violent activities in five Maharashtra cities before the upcoming Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) elections. Speaking on the Maoist threat, Special Inspector General, anti-Naxal operations (Maharashtra) Sandeep Patil, thus claimed,
The Maoists in Maharashtra are currently confined to Gadchiroli but are desperately trying to revive activities in Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nagpur, and Gondia. The state and its forces cannot presume that the decline in intensity of violence and other activities reflects the destruction of the Maoists' capacities to engage in violence. However, the present and relative pause provides opportunities to widen and strengthen intelligence networks and response capabilities, particularly within State Police Forces, which can serve to counteract the next wave of potentially escalating Maoist violence.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia February 19-25, 2024
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Manipur
Nagaland
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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