In a joint operation on April 3, 2023, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and the Jharkhand Police killed five Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in an intelligence-based operation in the Grahe Forest area under Lawalong Police Station limits in the Chatra District of Jharkhand. The slain Maoists were identified as Gautam Paswan, CPI-Maoist ‘Bihar-Jharkhand Special Area Committee (BJSAC)’ member, who had a reward of INR 2.5 million on his head; Ajit Oraon alias Charlis, BJSAC member, with an INR 2.5 million reward; Amar Ganjhu, ‘sub-zonal commander’ with a reward of INR 500,000; Ajay Yadav alias Nandu, ‘sub-zonal commander’ with a reward of INR 500,000; and Sanjeet Bhuiyan, ‘sub-zonal commander’. During the search operation, the dead bodies of the five Maoists along with two AK-47 rifles, one INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifle, two other rifles, hundreds of rounds of ammunition, as well as items of daily use were recovered.
On April 1, 2023, a CPI-Maoist cadre, Sameer Mohonda alias Sadhu Linga (31), a member of the CPI-Maoist ‘Chatgaon Local Organizational Squad’, with a reward of INR 200,000 on his head, was killed in an encounter with C-60 Commandos in the Kiarkoti-Abujhmad Forest area of Bhamragarh Taluka (revenue division) in the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra. Acting on intelligence inputs, the Commandos launched an operation and came under indiscriminate fire from a group of 60 to 70 Maoists hiding in the forest, who used Under Barrel Grenade Launchers (UBGLs) and other weapons. In the retaliatory fire, the C-60 Commandos killed one Maoist, while the others managed to flee into the dense forest. After the firing, which lasted for approximately an hour, the Security Forces (SFs) searched the area and recovered one .303 rifle, one gun, a country-made pistol, three magazines, 31 bullets, INR 38,000, medicines, Maoist literature and other materials.
On March 28, 2023, a former deputy Sarpanch (head of the Panchayat, village level local self-Government institution), Ramji Dodi, was abducted and killed by CPI-Maoist cadres in Zara village in the Narayanpur District of Chhattisgarh. Dodi was abducted, along with his two nephews, and taken to a forest where he was allegedly strangled to death by the Maoists. The nephews were released with Ramji’s body and a letter saying that he was killed because he was a ‘police informer’.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), there has been a total of 39 fatalities (20 civilians, nine SF personnel and 10 Naxalites, Left Wing Extremists) in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked violence in the current year (data till April 9, 2023). During the corresponding period of 2022, the number of such fatalities was 49 (19 civilians, seven SF personnel and 23 Naxalites).
Through 2022, there was a total of 135 fatalities (53 civilians, 15 SF personnel and 67 Naxalites) in such violence. In the preceding year (2021), there was a total of 237 fatalities (58 civilians, 51 SF personnel, and 128 Naxalites). Overall fatalities were at 239 in 2020, 302 in 2019, 412 in 2018 and 335 in 2017.
Overall fatalities have, thus, been on a decline since 2019. Moreover, the overall fatalities in 2022 were the lowest recorded in a single year since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE. Interestingly, the overall fatalities in 2021 were the pervious lowest recorded in a single year. A peak of 1,180 fatalities (630 civilians, 267 SF personnel, 265 Naxalites and 18 unspecified) were recorded in 2010.
As with overall fatalities, fatalities in 2022 in all three categories – civilian, SF and Naxalite – were the lowest since 2000. A previous low of 58 in the civilian category was record in 2021. In the SF category, the previous low of 44 was recorded in 2020. A previous low of 87 in the Naxalite category was recorded in 2004.
Civilian and Naxalite fatalities have also been on a continuous decline since 2019. SF fatalities have also declined through this period, barring 2021 (51 fatalities) when there was a spike compared to 2020 (44 fatalities).
Other parameters of violence also indicate significant improvement in the security situation relating to LWE activities across the country.
The number of overall LWE-linked terrorist incidents fell from 676 in 2021 to 602 in 2022. In particular, incidents of killing came down from 124 in 2021 to 107 in 2022. Seven of the 107 overall incidents of killing were major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) in 2022. In 2021, the number of major incidents was 15. Resultant fatalities from major incidents declined from 114 (seven civilians, 30 SF personnel, and 77 Naxalites) in 2021 to 22 (one civilian, three SF personnel, and 18 Naxalites) in 2022. In 2023, the number of overall LWE-linked incidents was 169, of which 32 were incidents of killing. Two major incidents have already been recorded in 2023.
The SF:Maoist kill ratio remained in favour of the SFs in 2022, at 1:4.46, the best since 2000, surpassing the previous best of 1:4.03 in 2016. In 2021, the ratio was at 1:2.5. The ratio has remined in favour of the SFs since 2011, when it was at 1:1.53. In 2010, the SF:Maoist kill ratio shifted to 1.01:1, favouring the Maoists. Since March 6, 2000, the overall kill ratio has been in favour of the SFs (1:1.61). In the current year, the kill ratio is in favour of the SFs at 1:1.11, so far (data till April 6, 2023).
SFs arrested 395 Naxalites in 2022, in addition to 409 in 2021, according to partial data compiled by SATP. In the current year, as on April 6, 2023, 122 arrests had been recorded. Significantly, since March 6, 2000, a total of 15,993 has been recorded.
The mounting pressure on Naxalites has yielded a large number of surrenders over the past few years. According to SATP, at least 2,855 Naxalites surrender through 2022, in addition to 533 in 2021. During the current year, as on April 6, 2023, the number of surrenders was 97. Since March 6, 2000, a total of 16,581 LWEs have surrendered.
Through 2022, SFs recovered arms from the Maoists in 190 incidents, in addition to 268 such incidents of recovery in 2021. During the current year, as on April 6, 2023, the number of such incidents are 58. Since March 6, 2000, a total of 4,694 incidents of arms recovery are documented.
An analysis of over-ground and underground Maoist activities in the country’s LWE-affected areas also suggests a diminishing influence. According to SATP, in 2022, Maoist activities were reported from 10 States in comparison to 11 States in 2021. (India has a total of 797 Districts in 29 States and nine Union Territories). The 10 affected States have a total of 310 Districts, of which 58 recorded a Maoist presence. Of these 58, three districts fell in the ‘highly affected’ category; 27 in the ‘moderately affected’ category; and 28 were ‘marginally affected’. By comparison in 2021, of 79 affected districts, one district fell in the ‘extremely-affected’ category, four in the ‘highly affected’ category, 28 in the ‘moderately affected’ category, and 46 were ‘marginally affected’.
Indeed, on March 28, 2023, Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai, in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of the Indian Parliament), announced that the number of districts most affected by LWE had reduced from 35 in 2017 to 30 in April 2018, and then to 25 in July 2021. Further, on March 28, 2023, the Government stated that the “geographical spread of violence has significantly reduced and only 176 Police Stations of 45 districts reported LWE violence in 2022, as compared to a high of 465 Police Stations of 96 districts in 2010”.
Conspicuously, all major LWE-affected states across the country — Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Telangana have witnessed an overall improvement in the security situation.
Nevertheless, the Maoist challenge persists.
OThe Perilous Bastar Division, the safe haven of the residual Maoist problem not only in Chhattisgarh but across the entire LWE-affected region, comprising seven densely forested districts - Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur and Sukma - sprawling across 40,000 square kilometers, in the southernmost region of the state, is the location of the last Maoist bastions. On November 7, 2022, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, Sundarraj P., asserting that the SFs were committed to wiping out the Maoist threat, nevertheless accepted,
Indeed, on March 28, 2023, the Maoists abducted and killed two villagers, in Narayanpur and Sukma Districts, branding them as ‘Police informers’ (incidents mentioned above).
Moreover, the early data for 2023 suggests that SF dominance on the ground, purely in terms of the kill ratio, has weakened during the first three months of 2023, as compared to the whole of 2022 and earlier. Not surprisingly, civilian insecurity has escalated.
Disturbingly, more than a few deficits in the fighting forces remained noticeable in some of the worst Maoist-afflicted States, according to the Bureau of Police Research & Development (BPR&D) data. BPR&D disclosed, as on January 1, 2021, that there were at least 28 Police Stations in Chhattisgarh, the worst affected State, that had no telephone. In Jharkhand, 47 had no vehicle, 211 had no telephone, and 31 had no wireless/mobile connectivity. In Andhra Pradesh, 65 Police Stations had no vehicle, and 34 had no wireless/mobile connectivity; and in Odisha, four had no vehicle, and three had no telephone.
Moreover, large vacancies persist in the State Police Forces. According to BPR&D data, as on January 1, 2021, against the sanctioned strength of 1,109,260 there were a total of 838,481 policemen in position in 10 LWE-affected States, leaving a vacancy of 270,779, i.e., 24.41 per cent. At the national level, deficits against sanctioned strength were 20.34 per cent, almost the same as the shortage in the Maoist affected States. The police-population ratio (policemen per hundred thousand population) of these 12 States had increased from an average of 138.63 in 2018 to 149.42 in 2019. Meanwhile, the all-India police-population ratio had increased from 150.80 in 2018 to 158.22 in 2019, significantly higher than the levels in the LWE affected States. Importantly, existing police-population ratios in these 12 states remained significantly lower than the sanctioned strength of 183.97. At the national level, the existing levels were also significantly lower than the sanctioned strength of 198.65 per 100,000. Moreover, the number of vacancies in the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) of these 12 States was 595 (22.44 per cent), as against 948 (19.97 per cent) at the national level, considerably weakening executive direction of the Force. These critical deficiencies in the enforcement apparatuses need urgent attention if the gains against the Maoists are to be consolidated further.
The Maoists are down, but yet not out. The overall declining trend in Maoist violence and activity across the country needs to be contained with further security interventions with a sense of urgency, as the Maoists have shown incredible capacities for resurrection in the past, and retain substantial operational and overground capabilities in significant areas of their erstwhile regions of dominance. The SFs will have to overcome prevailing operational and capacity deficits, to prevent any rebel resurgence.