South Asia Terrorism Portal
Effortless Victory Sanchita Bhattacharya Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 11, 2024, Sheikh Hasina was sworn in as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh for the fifth term, her fourth consecutively. Hasina has inducted 25 ministers and 11 state ministers in her Cabinet.
Bangladesh went to the polls on January 7, 2024. Of 300 parliamentary seats, the ruling Awami League led by Hasina won 223; the Jatiya Party (Ershad) 11 seats; the Workers' Party, Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD) and Bangladesh Kalyan Party, one each; and independent candidates won 62 seats. The election was postponed in one constituency, as required by law, after an independent candidate died. The overall turnout was low, with only 40 per cent of approximately 120 million eligible voters taking part, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal disclosed, on January 7.
The elections were boycotted by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia, after Hasina rejected calls to resign and let a neutral caretaker government run the election. Another 15 opposition parties also boycotted the election.
The Hasina Government had, earlier, strengthened its political hold over the country as a result of its overwhelming win in the 11th General Elections held in December 2018. The Awami League-led 14-party-alliance had secured a huge majority of 288 seats in the 300-member Jatiyo Shangshad (National Parliament). The Opposition parties contested the 2018 elections as an alliance, but performed abysmally. The 10th General Elections, conducted on January 5, 2014, faced a comprehensive boycott by the Opposition, as well as by some of Hasina's allies, prominently including General H. M. Ershad's Jatiya Party (Ershad). 153 of a total of 300 seats in the Jatiyo Shangshad were decided unopposed. Of the unopposed seats, Awami League candidates were declared unopposed winners in 127 seats; followed by the Jatiya Party (Ershad), 20 seats; JSD, three seats; Workers Party, one seat and Jatiya Party-Manju (JP-M), one seat. Of the remaining 147 seats for which elections were held, on January 5, 2014, the Awamil League won 107 and the Jatiya Party (Ershad), 14. Only 11 of the 41 registered parties in Bangladesh participated in the elections. Despite this, according to the Bangladesh Election Commission, the voter turnout was 45 to 46 per cent.
Before the recent elections, the Awami League manifesto was released on December 27, 2023, prioritizing 11 key area for betterment of technological, economic and infrastructural sectors of the country. One of the key areas was prevention of communalism, all forms of terrorism and militancy; and protection of democratic systems. The Awami League government has always emphasized a zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism.
Through 2023, there was not a single case of a fatality related to proscribed Islamist terrorist groups reported in the country, continuing with the trend established in the previous years, 2022 and 2021. 2023 recorded a total of 375 arrests of Islamist terrorists/radicals belonging to various groups, including 237 Jamaat-e-Islami-Islami Chhatra Shibir (JeI-ICS), 50 Jama'atul Ansar fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS), 27 Imam Mahmuder Kafela, 24 Ansar al-Islam, among others.
However, at least 28 incidents of violence were reported in Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh in 2023. At least 32 persons (16 civilians and 16 militants) were killed, and another eight civilians and one militant injured, in these incidents.
The Rohingyas have also been involved in a wide variety of other criminal activities, including extortion and drug and gun running. Among the 10 active groups in Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has been active in Ukhiya, Balukhali, Palongkhali (Ukhiya Sub-District) and Whykong (Teknaf Sub-District); the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) and the Master Munna gangs in Ukhiya and Palongkhali; the Islami Mahaj and Jabu Dacoit gang in Whykong; and the Chakma dacoit gang, Nabi Hussain dacoit gang, Putia dacoit gang, Salman Shah dacoit gang, and Khaleq dacoit gang, in the Nayapara camp. ARSA controls most of the camps, and ARSA and the Nabi Hussain dacoit gang often engaged in clashes over dominance, resulting in multiple incidents of murder.
The situation in the Rohingya camps is complicated, with numerous elements contributing to the perceived threat that Rohingyas pose to peace and security in Bangladesh. On September 7, 2023, the Additional Superintendent of Police (ASP) of Cox's Bazar District, Rafiqul Islam, disclosed that 7,012 Rohingyas had been accused in a total of 3,105 cases, from August 25, 2017, to September 6, 2023, across 33 Rohingya camps in Ukhiya-Teknaf sub-Districts in Cox's Bazar District. He further revealed that 2,997 persons were arrested in 2,078 cases under the Drugs Act; 564 persons in 240 cases under the Arms Act; 1,141 people in 188 cases of murder; 94 rape and attempted rape cases under the Women and Child Abuse Act; 114 people in 62 robberies and 535 people in attempted robbery cases; 133 people in 65 cases under the Special Powers Act; 242 in 47 kidnapping cases; 221 in 39 human trafficking cases; 104 Rohingyas in 42 cases filed under the Foreigners Act for infiltration through the border; and 961 Rohingyas accused in 250 cases filed for various other crimes.
The violence in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) has also been another flashpoint. The CHT region, consisting of three hilly and forested southeastern Districts of Bandarban, Rangamati, and Khagracchari, is experiencing increasing ethnic violence even after 26 years of the signing of the CHT Accord of 1997. According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in 2023, 21 fatalities were recorded in CHT, indicating a rise from 15 fatalities recorded in 2022, and 10 through 2021. The situation has worsened, with communal violence, kidnapping, political violence, explosions, terrorism, and other security risks. On May 7, 2023, the Bangladesh’s Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan warned, “No armed criminals and militant groups will be spared in the hills but the government will take initiative if any criminal wants to return to normal life.” He further stated that the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) had been strengthened, with modern equipment to protect the bordering areas of the CHT. “After assuming power, the current government has been working tirelessly to make the BGB a modern and international standard border guard and it has elevated to the three-dimensional force after bringing change in its organisational structure,” he asserted.
Meanwhile, the War Crimes (WC) Trials, which began on March 25, 2010, have continued. So far, a total of 125 leaders, including 50 from the JeI; 27 from the Muslim League (ML); 11 from the Nezam-e-Islami (NeI); five from the BNP; two each from Jatiya Party-Ershad and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); 27 former Razakars; and one former Al-Badr member, have been indicted. Significantly, out of these, verdicts have been delivered against 104 accused, including 86 who have been sentenced to death, 36 to imprisonment for life and five for 20 years imprisonment. Six of the 86 persons who were awarded the death sentence have been hanged, so far. Of 36 persons who were awarded life sentences, six persons have already died in prison. On November 30, 2023, the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), led by Justice Mohammad Shahinur Islam, sentenced seven accused to death for committing a series of crimes against humanity, including murder and rape, in the Bagerhat District of Khulna Division, during the 1971 Liberation War. The convicts were identified as Khan Akram Hossain, Sheikh Mohammad Ukil Uddin, Mohammad Mollah, Khan Arshad Ali, Rustom Ali Molla, Sheikh Idris Ali, and Sheikh Rafiqul Islam Babul. Only Khan Akram Hossain, Sheikh Mohammad Ukil Uddin, and Mohammad Mollah were present in the dock when the verdict was announced, with the rest absconding.
In 2023, three war crime suspects were arrested. On July 10, Mohammad Abdur Rashid alias Baddi, 72, was arrested at Bagaber Bazaar in Rupganj, Narayanganj District. Rashid was suspected to have committed crimes against humanity at different places in the Phulpur sub-District of Mymensingh District. ICT-1 had issued the warrant of arrest against him on January 18, 2022. The accused went into hiding after the issuance of the tribunal’s arrest warrant. Earlier, on February 16, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested two death-row fugitive war criminals from Mohammadpur and Mugda areas of Dhaka. The arrestees, Abdul Wahed Mondal and Jachhizar Rahman alias Khoka, had been absconding since 2016, after coming out of jail on bail, Lieutenant Colonel Arif Mohiuddin Ahmed, Commanding Officer of RAB-3, disclosed.
Though violent incidents related to various Islamist organisations and their operatives have substantially declined in Bangladesh, the festering issue of Rohingya refugees and various criminal activities related with them is undermining security in the country. Moreover, even after 26 years of the CHT Accord, peace is yet to be established in the southeastern region of the country, and the increasing fatalities there are an indicator of the ethnic divide and consequent discord.
The re-election of Sheikh Hasina and the AL, however, will ensure that the campaign against Islamist extremism, as well as against the criminal Rohingya gangs and militants in the CHT will continue uninterrupted. While the combined opposition has threatened to intensify street mobilization against the Government, this is unlikely to alter the political environment – always fractious – in Bangladesh. With an overwhelming majority in Parliament once again – at least in part due to the Opposition’s miscalculation in staying away from the elections – it is unlikely that Sheikh Hasina will confront any extraordinary challenge in continuing with the policies that have been a hallmark of her earlier tenures.
Meghalaya: Uncertain Peace Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 8, 2024, the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) government spokesperson and Cabinet Minister Ampareen Lyngdoh asserted that the state government was committed to peace talks with the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC):
The statement came following HNLC's withdrawal from tripartite peace talks on December 31, 2023. HNLC's 'general secretary cum publicity secretary' Sainkupar Nongtraw declared,
On the same day, in a letter addressed to A.K. Mishra, Advisor (Union Ministry of Home Affairs, Northeast), and signed by HNLC's 'chairman-cum-commander-in-chief' Boby Marweinm and Sainkupar Nongtraw, the HNLC stated,
Further, in a detailed press release on January 3, 2023, signed by Marweinm and Nongtraw, HNLC listed five primary demands ‘crucial’ for the accomplishment of the peace process. These included the establishment of safe passage for central leaders, appointment of a representative to communicate with the government, removal of the ban on HNLC, the withdrawal of pending cases by granting general amnesty to its leaders and cadres, and the release of individuals associated with HNLC currently in jail.
Significantly, the Central Government has accepted only two of these five demands – the establishment of a safe passage for central leaders and appointment of a representative to communicate with the government. The core demands were originally submitted to the Central government by HNLC’s former ‘general secretary’ Cheristerfied Thangkhiew, on January 16, 2021. Thangkhiew was killed on August 13, 2021, in a Police encounter at his residence at Mawlai-Kynton Massar in Shillong, East Khasi Hills District.
Indeed, the denial of the other demands which, according to HNLC, are critical for talks to continue, is the reason behind the organization’s withdrawal from talks. Not surprisingly, on January 8, 2024, HNLC reiterated that its leaders were ready to reconsider the decision on withdrawal, with the condition that the state government will not be reluctant in dropping the cases against the leaders of the group and granting general amnesty to them.
Tripartite peace talks between the Centre, the Meghalaya Government and the HNLC began on June 24, 2023, at Umiam in the Ri Bhoi District of Meghalaya, near Shillong. Earlier, after receiving the Government of India's nod, peace talks between the HNLC and the Meghalaya Government had been initiated on March 11, 2022.
Nevertheless, the HNLC has not signed any ceasefire with the government as yet, and continues to constitute a security threat in the state, despite the stabilization that has resulted from most of the other prominent insurgent groups of Meghalaya – the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA), Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC) and Achik National Volunteer Council-Bilash Marak (ANVC-B) – having become inactive on the ground. While the GNLA had more or less been neutralised in the aftermath of Operation Hill Storm between July 2014 and September 2016, the ANVC and ANVC-B signed Memorandums of Settlement (MoS) with the Government in 2014 and dissolved themselves. The last killing linked to GNLA was reported on February 24, 2018, when the then ‘commander-in-chief’ of GNLA, Sohan D. Shira, was killed in an encounter by Meghalaya Police at Dobu A’chakpek in the East Garo Hills District.
According to partial data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Meghalaya has not recorded any insurgency-linked fatality since September 14, 2021, when an over ground worker (OGW) of the United Achik Liberation Army (UALA) and A’chik Songna An’pachakgipa Kotok (ASAK) was killed in an encounter near Sherwood School on the outskirts of Tura in the West Garo Hills District. The last civilian killing in such violence was reported on May 12-13, 2019, when a villager residing along the Indo-Bangladesh border in Lapalang village in the East Khasi Hills District was killed in an attack by insurgents. The last fatality in the Security Forces category was reported on February 18, 2018, when four persons, including Jonathone N. Sangma, the then National Congress Party (NCP) candidate from William Nagar constituency, and two SF personnel were killed, when militants ambushed the convoy of the candidate and exploded an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) at Samanda in the East Garo Hills.
At the peak of insurgency, Meghalaya recorded a total of 495 fatalities in 1997. The highest civilian fatalities, 266, were recorded in 1993, while a high of 111 SF fatalities was recorded in 1997. Overall fatalities remained in three digits between 1992 and 2000, and were contained within two digits between 2001 and 2016.
In the last seven years, between 2017 and 2023, there were no fatalities in three years – 2020, 2022 and 2023, while they remained in single digits in 2017 (eight), 2018 (seven), 2019 (one) and 2021 (two). Of the total of 18 fatalities during this period, the GNLA was linked to 13, HNLC and United Achik Liberation Army (UALA) to two each, and one fatality was linked to the National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Saraigowra (NDFB-S).
According to state government data, HNLC was suspected to be responsible for at least five of the seven IED blasts that occurred in Meghalaya between February 2018 and January 2022. The perpetrators of the remaining two IED detonations are yet unknown. No violent incident has been reported in the State since January 2022.
However, on December 30, 2023, the HNLC issued a death threat to National People's Party (NPP) Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) Gavin Miguel Mylliem over the closure of Mawmluh Cherra Cement Limited (MCCL) in Meghalaya. The HNLC further extended an offer to the MCCL employees to join the outfit:
Meanwhile, a new militant group, the National Liberation Council of Nongkyndong (NLCN), has emerged. Deputy Inspector-General of Police (Eastern Range), Davis Nestell Rangsa Marak stated, on August 16, 2023, that the new militant group intended to wage war against the government and to commit unlawful activities, such as procurement of arms and ammunition, extortion, recruiting armed cadres, training of armed cadres, establishing armed terrorist camps and conspiring to commit terrorist acts. Marak added, “The inputs also indicated that NLCN had tied up with other militant outfits of Nagaland and was supposed to send the first batch of cadres for armed terrorist training to Nagaland.”
In another development in early May 2023, reports claimed that Jingjang D. Shira had been appointed as the new GNLA ‘chief executive director’ and over 500 youth have been recruited and sent for training to Nagaland and Myanmar. Following this, on May 28, the Meghalaya Police successfully foiled a suspected regrouping plot, arresting three suspected GNLA cadres from the West Khasi Hills District. Incriminating materials, such as camouflage uniforms and boots, were seized by the Police during the operation.
Another issue of concern is the long-standing border dispute between Meghalaya and Assam. On September 26, 2023, fresh clashes were reported from a disputed village along the Assam-Meghalaya interstate boundary between Meghalaya’s West Jaintia Hills District and Assam’s West Karbi Anglong District, as locals from both sides used bows and arrows and catapults to attack each other. No injuries were reported from the incident. This border clash came after both the Assam and Meghalaya governments began the second phase of border talks in May 2023. Six persons were killed in border clashes between Assam and Meghalaya in November 2022. The two states had 12 disputed sectors along their 884.9-kilometre boundary. The disputes in six of these sectors, however, were settled through an agreement signed on March 29, 2022, in the presence of Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah. A meeting between the Chief Ministers of both States was held on September 30, 2023, in which the regional committees on the boundary dispute were asked to submit their reports by December 31, 2023. The reports, however, have not yet been submitted.
The security situation in Meghalaya has improved considerably over the last few years. However, the uncertainty over talks with the HNLC as well reports of attempts by the GNLA to regroup and the emergence of a new militant group could undermine some of these gains. Ensuring that peace talks with the HNLC are brought to a successful is, consequently, crucial. Any reemergence of insurgency must also be operationally thwarted on the ground.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia January 8-14, 2024
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Andhra Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Manipur
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Sheikh Hasina takes oath as Prime Minister of Bangladesh for fifth time and forms new cabinet: On January 11, Awami League President Sheikh Hasina took oath as the Prime Minister (PM) of Bangladesh for the fourth consecutive term and formed the Government. President Mohammed Shahabuddin appointed 25 ministers and 11 state ministers for the new cabinet along with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Among them, there will be two technocrat ministers this time. Dhaka Tribune, January 12, 2024.
Chhattisgarh government invites Maoists for a video conference dialogue for peace in Bastar region: The Chhattisgarh Government has extended an invitation to the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) to engage in unconditional talks, suggesting that dialogue can take place through video conferencing if they are reluctant to come for physical meetings. The aim of the dialogue is to restore peace and stability in the tribal region. The Times of India, January 11, 2024.
'Amnesty' must for resumption of peace talks, says HNLC: Against the backdrop of Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) withdrawing from peace talks with the State and Central Government, its interlocutor Sadon K Blah on January 8 said that the leaders of the outfit are ready to reconsider the decision with the condition that the State Government will not be reluctant in dropping the cases against the leaders of the group and grant general amnesty to them. The outfit has set 'amnesty' as a condition for resumption of tripartite peace talks with the union and the State Governments. The Shillong Times, January 9, 2024.
Maldives now hub of IS and Pakistani terror groups and narco networks, say intelligence sources: According to intelligence sources, Maldives is not only a hub of Islamic State (IS) operatives but also of Pakistan-based terror groups and narcotics smugglers as well. Sources stated that a Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) base was also identified in Maldives in the past. The Maldives is facing a major problem from radical Islamic fundamentalists who are funding the local governments with the involvement of some big business houses. These business houses have been drawn towards China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the sources said. News 18, January 9, 2024.
Mumbai attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed serving 78-year jail term in Pakistan, says UN Sanctions Committee: The United Nation (UN) Sanctions Committee said Hafiz Saeed, the mastermind of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack and chief of Jamat-ud-Dawah (JuD), is serving a 78-year-imprisonment sentence in Pakistan, said the United Nations. He is facing conviction in seven terror financing cases. The Sanctions Committee also noted that Hafiz Abdul Salam Bhuttavi, founding member of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Saeed's deputy, is "confirmed deceased." PTI News, January 9, 2024.
At least 289 suspects killed in Sindh 'encounters' in 2023: The Sindh Police killed as many as 289 suspects in thousands of encounters in different parts of the province during 2023, said Police official data released on January 7. A Police spokesperson said that a total of 3,158 encounters took place with suspected robbers/criminals across Sindh in the previous year and as a result a total of 1,726 'criminal gangs' were busted. Dawn, January 9, 2024.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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