South Asia Terrorism Portal
Democracy and the Deep State Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
The efforts of the military to steer the elections against PML-N and PPP, the two most popular political formations in Pakistan, and in favour of a possible coalition led by Imran Khan's PTI and including a range of radical Islamist formations, has enormously destabilised both the political and extremist landscape across the country. Under the prevailing situation, a dramatic rise in violence is not unexpected.
…The (secret) agencies of the state of Pakistan need to realise that they have to confine themselves within the limits of the organic law - the Constitution -and the parameters of the law of the land and must stop interfering in the affairs of other institutions (such as the) judiciary, executive, media, and other departments … (who) have nothing to do with the defence and or the security of Pakistan…
ISI is fully involved in the manipulation of judicial proceedings. ISI ensures that the bench is made according to their preferences and cases are marked. Today in the High Court, ISI approached the Chief Justice and instructed him to not release Nawaz Sharif and his daughter till the time of elections…
As expected, Pakistan’s deep state is about to succeed in getting its person of choice ‘elected’ as the Prime Minister of the country. Though the July 25, 2018, General Election results have thrown up a fractured mandate, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan is almost certain to become the new Prime Minister. In the night of July 28, 2018, PTI leader Naeemul Haq asserted that consultations were on to complete the numbers game, adding, "We have done our homework and he [Imran Khan] will take oath as Prime Minister beforeAugust 14.”
Earlier the same evening, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) released the final election results according to which PTI emerged as the largest political party in National Assembly with 116 seats, followed by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which managed to secure 64 seats; the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), 43 seats; the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), 12 seats; Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), six seats; Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid (PML-Q) and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), four seats each; Balochistan National Party (BNP), three seats; Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), two seats; Awami National Party (ANP), Awami Muslim League (AML), Jamhoori Wattan Party (JWP), one seat each; and 13 independents.
PML-N was in power when the elections were declared in May 2018, having defeated the ruling PPP in 2013. The MMA is an alliance of a number of Islamist religious parties, while MQM is a Karachi-based formation with its roots principally in the mohajir (refugee) community. PML-Q has its base in Punjab, while the Balochistan Awami Party and Balochistan National Party (BNP) locate their strengths in the Balochistan Province. GDA is an alliance of five Sindh-based political parties.
Elections for four Provincial Assemblies – Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan – were also held on July 25, 2018. In the 297-member Punjab Assembly, PML-N won 129 seats, followed by PTI (123), PML-Q (seven), PPP (six), Pakistan Awami Raaj (PAR, one), and Independents (29). In 130-member Sindh Assembly, PPP has won 76 seats, followed by PTI (23), MQM-P (16), GDA (11), Tehreek-e-Labbaikya Rasool Allah Pakistan (TLP, two), MMA (one). In the 99-member Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly, PTI won 65 seats, followed by MMA (10), ANP (six), PML-N (five), PPP (four) and Independents (six). In the 51-member Balochistan Assembly, the Balochistan Awami Party won 15 seats; followed by MMA (nine); Balochistan National Party (five); PTI (four); ANP and Balochistan National Party Awamis (BNPA), three each; Hazra Democratic Party (HDP), two; Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PMKAP), Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP), and PML-N, one each; and Independents (six). While PPP secured a majority in Sindh, PTI is set to form the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Punjab and Balochistan, the leading parties are engaged in garnering support to reach the majority mark.
The July 2018 elections were a bloody affair. There were three prominent election-related terrorist incidents among 19 reported from across Pakistan between the announcement of the date of General Elections by the ECP on May 26, 2018, and Election Day, July 25, 2018. At least 221 people (209 civilians, including three candidates, eight Security Force personnel, and four terrorists) were killed in these incidents and another 313 injured. On election day, at least 31 persons, including five Policemen and two minors, were killed, and 30 were injured in a suicide attack near a school area in the Bhosa Mandi area on the Eastern Bypass of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. The attack targeted the convoy of Deputy Inspector General (DIG) Abdul Razzaq Cheema, who escaped unhurt, while the Station House Officer (SHO) Bhosa Mandi, Muhammad Hameed, succumbed to his injuries.
Elections in Pakistan have been a bloody affair for some time now. During the 2013 Elections (declared on March 22, 2013, and conducted on May 11, 2013), at least 268 persons (260 civilians, seven Security Force, SF, personnel, one militant) were killed and another 45 injured in 80 election-related terror incidents. The worst election-related terrorist incident during this period was recorded on May 6, 2013, when 23 civilians were killed and more than 70 were injured in a blast targeting an election rally of the Fazal faction of Jamiat Ulema-e Islam (JUI-F) in the Sewak village area of Kurram Agency in the then Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Returning to the current process, on July 29, 2018, Pakistan’s main opposition party PML-N called for a judicial investigation into election rigging. Senior PML-N leader Khawaja Asif stated, “We demand constitution of a judicial commission to probe incidents that took place on July 25. We will issue a white paper on the election rigging and other incidents.” Other political parties have also raised similar demands. Pakistan has a history of rigged polls.
Pakistani commentators have sought to emphasise that fears of the infiltration of terrorist elements into mainstream politics, though to be imminent, were uncalled for, as none of the ‘terrorist candidates’ won. However, examination of the voting pattern demonstrates that such ‘terrorist elements’ did succeed in demonstrating significant mass support. The Islamist extremist Tehreek-e-Labbaik ya Rasool Allah Pakistan (TLP), which orchestrated mass demonstration against the alleged change in the Khatm-e-Nabuwat [finality of Prophet-hood] clause in Pakistan’s election law, and which recently reiterated its extremist orientation, secured 2,231,697 votes, fifth in the list of political parties in terms of number of votes garnered. Similarly, the Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek, the political front of the Hafeez Muhammad Saeed led Milli Muslim League [MML, the political front of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) – Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD)] terrorist complex, received 171,587 votes, and was 12th on the list of 85 participating political parties. At least 85 political parties were in the list of parties which garnered votes. While PTI got the maximum of 16,851,240 votes, the Peoples Movement of Pakistan (PMP) secured the least, at 67 votes.
The emergence of Imran Khan as the new leader of Pakistan, is a matter of some concern, given his past record, and Pakistan’s own history as an ‘exporter of terror’. Though most Pakistani political parties, as well aspast Prime Ministersmaintained strong ties with religious extremist elements and terrorist groups, Imran has been extraordinarily supportive of extremist elements in the country, and PTI’s provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa included startling elements of support to radical Islamist elements and policies, as highlighted in SAIR on numerous occasions in the past.
Continuing apprehensions are fuelled by Khan’s recent rhetoric. During an election rally in Islamabad on July 7, 2018, he declared, “We are standing with Article 295c and will defend it,” referring to the Blasphemy Law that mandates the death penalty for any “imputation, insinuation or innuendo” against the prophet Muhammad. Several people who were allegedly involved in acts of blasphemy have been killed by religious extremist and terrorist groups across Pakistan.
Moreover, during the current elections, Khan’s PTI joined hands with the Islamabad-based religious extremist leader, Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil. Khalil was placed on the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT) by the US Government on September 30, 2014, for his alleged role in creation of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM). He later founded and still heads Ansar-ul-Ummah, another terrorist formation on the SDGT list.
Khan is also widely seen as little more than a stooge of the Pakistan Army, and will in all likelihood toe the military line, signalling the continuation of the military-mullah-politician nexus in Pakistan. Any attempt by to deviate from such a position would provoke the same consequences that befell his predecessors when they sought to assert any independence, or to constrain the Army to its constitutional mandate.
There is, of course, some commentary that Khan will attempt to contain Pakistan's state sponsored terrorist enterprise, and to pursue an agenda of peace with Afghanistan and India, even as he restores a measure of 'liberal' constitutional values within Pakistan. Such expectations are reinforced by Khan's post election statementwhere he declared:
We will not do any kind of political victimising. We will establish supremacy of the law… whoever violates the law, we will act against them… Afghanistan's people need peace. We want peace there. If there is peace in Afghanistan, there will be peace in Pakistan. We want to have open borders with Afghanistan one day… We will make every effort to achieve peace there… If India's leadership is ready, we are ready to improve ties with India. If you step forward one step, we will take two steps forward…
It needs no understanding of individual psychology or of Khan’s personal profile and proclivities to assert that these promises will be betrayed. Through history, leaders have never been able to escape the logic of the dynamic that propelled them to power. Pakistan’s founder, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, who harnessed religious polarization and the idea of jihad to engineer India’s Partition, and then sought to transform his fledgling country into one where “religion or caste or creed” would have “nothing to do with the business of the State”, is a glaring example of leaders who become prisoners of the means that bring them to ascendancy. Khan has mortgaged himself to the Army and to religious extremist formations in Pakistan, to pivot himself and his party to power. He will remain their prisoner during his tenure as Prime Minister. ‘Naya Pakistan’ (new Pakistan) will look a lot like the old.
Blind Optimism S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Mid Year Report released on July 15, 2018, the number of civilians killed in Afghanistan hit a record high in the first half of 2018. 1,692 civilians were killed during the first six months of 2018 – the most recorded in the same time period in any year over the last decade since the agency began documenting civilian casualties in 2009. There were 1,672 civilian deaths in 2017, 1644 in 2016 and 1615 in 2015 in the same time period.
Afghanistan’s ‘ugly war’ took its toll in civilian lives in July as well. On July 1, 2018, 19 people were killed and 20 were wounded in a suicide bombing in Jalalabad city, the capital of Nangarhar Province. On July 11, 2018, 10 people were killed as terrorists stormed the Education Department Office in Jalalabad city and opened fire. On July 15, 2018, seven people were killed and 15 sustained injuries in a suicide attack close to the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development in the west of Kabul city. On July 22, 2018, 14 people were killed and 60 were wounded in an explosion outside the gate of the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul city. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 78 civilians have been already killed across the country in July (data till July 29, 2018).
The Taliban remains a resurgent force. According to the 39th Quarterly Report of Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released on April 30, 2018, since SIGAR began receiving population-control data in August 2016, Afghan Government control has decreased by roughly four percentage points, and the overall trend for the insurgency is rising control over the population (from 9% in August 2016 to 12% in January 2018). Another disturbing fact was the Afghanistan Living Conditions Survey 2016-17 released on May 6, 2018, by the Central Statistics Organization (CSO) in financial cooperation with the European Union, the World Food Program and the World Bank, showed that the extreme poverty line in Afghanistan has gone 21 percent up compared to what the parity had been a decade ago. At the national level, these headcount rates increased from 33.7 percent in 2007-08 to 38.3 percent in 2011-12, followed by a sharp rise to 54.5 percent in 2016-17.
Despite this escalation, in his address to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) heads of state summit in Brussels, Belgium, on Jul 12, 2018, President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani asserted that US President Donald Trump’s 2017 South-Asia Strategy had been a game changer, creating a window of opportunity for the Afghans to own their problems, fashion solutions tailored to context and to design outcome-based reform. Further, on July 27, 2018, asserting that peace would come to Afghanistan, President Ghani stated, “For the first time in 40 years, we realized the importance of peace during the ceasefire between Government and Taliban. You saw that Afghans accepted each other. The ceasefire was an experience, it also contained risks, but it proved that this great nation is a great nation under Allah’s will.” On June 7, 2018, as part of his good-will gesture for peace, President Ghani had announced an unconditional ceasefire with the Taliban, coinciding with the end of Ramzan, the Muslim month of fasting, on Eid. On June 9, 2018, the Taliban responded, issuing a statement declaring it had ordered its fighters not to clash with Afghan security forces for three days.
As the Taliban ended this unprecedented ceasefire and resumed attacks in parts of the country, the People’s Peace Movement gathered in front of the US Embassy in Kabul on June 27, 2018, where, they chanted slogans in support of peace and national reconciliation. After they ended their 10-day sit-in protest outside the US embassy in Kabul, on July 6, 2018, the peace activists headed to the Russian embassy, where they were assured of support to the peace process. On July 12, 2018, the peace activists moved on to the Pakistani embassy, but no Pakistani officials met with them. On July 25, 2018, the peace activists handed over a bloodstained letter to the United Nations (UN) office in Kabul calling for an end to the war and accusing Pakistan of supporting the war. Further, on July 26, 2018, the peace activists moved their sit in protest to the Iranian embassy in Kabul and called on the people of Iran to put pressure on their Government to help Afghanistan in achieving peace. After submitting a letter to the Iran embassy on July 27, 2018, the peace activists took their sit-in protest to the UK embassy. Initially, eight peace activists had launched a sit-in protest in Lashkargah city, after a suicide bombing outside a stadium. They reached the capital Kabul on June 18, 2018, traveling about 700 kilometers over nearly 40 days. As they progressed, their numbers grew to an estimated 100.
Separately, as there has been no indication that violence would diminish, the Government of Saudi Arabia and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) jointly organized a two-day event entitled ‘International Conference of Muslim Scholars on Peace and Stability in Afghanistan’, commencing July 10, 2018. A 35-member delegation of Ulema (religious scholars) from Afghanistan, led by the head of the Ulema Council, Mawlawi Qayamuddin Kashaf, 200 representatives from 57 countries and 108 Ulema members from 32 countries attended the Conference. The head of the OIC Yousef bin Ahmad Al-Othaimeen stated, “The military operation is not the way out of war in Afghanistan. OIC is ready to cooperate with Afghanistan to reach to peace.”
Meanwhile, reiterating their call to the Taliban to engage credibly in the Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process, on Jul 12, 2018, NATO leaders during their summit meeting in Brussels, in their joint statement, declared, “The people of Afghanistan demand peace and we are encouraged by the momentum building in that direction. We remain united in our commitment to help Afghanistan attain it.”
On July 25, 2018, National Security Advisors of Afghanistan, United States, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, in a quadrilateral meeting discussed the details of direct talks with the Taliban and another ceasefire. A joint action plan on counter-terrorism, peace and regional cooperation was finalized between the four nations at the meeting. Afghanistan’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Spokesman Qadir Shah, after the meeting, observed, “The meeting focused on fighting terrorism, supporting peace talks and regional cooperation. And the joint action plan was approved after much discussion. It will be implemented once approved by the leaders of the four countries.”
Further, to explore ways to revive the Afghan-led peace talks, a delegation of US officials led by Alice Wells, the State Department’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia, met with the Taliban officials in Qatar on July 26, 2018. Confirming talks underway between US and the Taliban, Taliban’s former Finance Minister Mutasim Agha Jan observed, on July 28, 2018, “The Taliban political representatives and the American officials have met in Qatar. No other side was part of the negotiations. The talks are currently being held at the lower level, and both sides will proceed gradually. When negotiations start taking place on the highest level, we’ll reach an agreement. I’m confident that the Taliban and the US will continue dialogue and will reach a deal.”
On the other hand, on July 5, 2018, Pakistan and the US agreed to ‘remain engaged’ for peace in Afghanistan, during a meeting between Alice Wells and Army Chief Gen Qamar Bajwa at General Headquarters, Islamabad. Further, linking peace in Afghanistan to stability in Pakistan, Chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan (now the Prime Minister elect), stated, on July 26, 2018, “We want to work in every possible way to ensure peace in Afghanistan. I would love an open border system like the EU with Afghanistan. Afghanistan is that neighbor of ours that has seen the most human misery and damage in the name of wars. The people of Afghanistan need peace, and Pakistan wants peace in Afghanistan.” Further, on Jul 27, 2018, in a televised address to the nation, after sweeping the general election, Imran Khan noted “Afghanistan has suffered a lot in the war on terror and before that in the jihad. Peace in Afghanistan means peace in Pakistan. I want both our countries to have open borders like countries in European Union have.”
On March 8, 2018, extending the mandate of UNAMA for another year, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted UN Resolution 2405 reaffirming its strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national unity of Afghanistan, as well as its continued support for the Government and people of Afghanistan as they rebuild their country and strengthen democratic institutions. Meanwhile, reaffirming their commitment to ensure long-term security and stability in Afghanistan, the Brussels Summit Declaration issued on July 11, 2018, during the NATO summit, agreed to extend funding to the Afghan security forces through 2024. Separately, to play an effective role in the Afghan reconciliation process, Turkish Ambassador Oguzhan Ertugrul stated, on Jul 14, 2018, that Turkey was ready to play a basic role as mediator between the Afghan Government and the armed opponent groups.
Expressing the hope for a continued process of reforms, US Central Command Commander Gen. Joseph Votel, while meeting President Ghani at the Presidential Palace in Kabul on Jul 14, 2018, assured continued US cooperation with the Government and people of Afghanistan. Separately, on July 25, 2018, the European Union Delegation to Afghanistan announced the allocation of €98 million (US$114 million) to Afghanistan aimed at helping the Afghan Government promote its reform, development and stabilization strategy.
Despite the flurry of ‘peace initiatives’ on Afghanistan, it is useful to recall that numerous earlier initiatives, prominently including the Kabul Process, the Qatar Process and the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) process quickly lost their way, even as violence escalated. Beyond good intentions, it is not clear what new element these fresh ‘peace initiatives’ bring to the persisting violence, even as a multiplicity of external powers continue to engage in cynical ‘great games’ to consolidate their own interest and influence in the AfPak region, overwhelmingly at the expense of the people of Afghanistan.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia July 23-30, 2018 (Will update soon).
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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