South Asia Terrorism Portal
J&K: Extreme Measures Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On September 30, 2018, a Policeman was killed and his rifle was snatched when suspected Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) militants attacked Police Station Shopian in Shopian District The slain Policeman, identified as Saqib Mohiudin, was manning the entry gate of the Police Station when the attack took place at around 6 am [IST].
On September 21, 2018, terrorists abducted and killed three Special Police Officers (SPOs) in the Shopian District. The terrorists abducted SPOs Firdous Ahmad Kuchey and Kuldeep Singh – both residents of Batgund village, and SPO Nisar Ahmad Dhobi, resident of Kapran village. Police later recovered bodies of the three SPOs from nearby Wangam village. The SPOs were shot multiple times. A civilian, Fayaz Ahmad Bhat, a resident of Kapran village, who was also abducted along with slain SPO Nisar Ahmad Dhobi, was let off.
On August 22, 2018, terrorists fired upon and killed a Policeman, identified as Fayaz Ahmad Shah in Awgam village of Kulgam District. Shah was coming out from a local mosque after prayers and was on his way home, when terrorists fired at him. Shah, who had joined as an SPO, had recently been promoted to the rank of constable.
On the same day, a Policeman identified as Mohammad Yaqoob was killed by terrorists in the Louswani area of Pulwama District. Mohammad Yaqoob was fired upon by the terrorists at point-blank range outside his home at Louswani village.
These incidents are neither a new development nor indicative of any significant shift in terrorist strategy. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 34 policemen have been killed in the current year so far (data till September 30, 2018), of whom 28 were killed in incidents of targeted killing (whether on or off duty). During the corresponding period of 2017, a total of 23 policemen had been killed, all in incidents of targeted killing. Through 2017, a total of 30 policemen were killed, 27 of them in incidents of targeted killing.
According to a September 22, 2018, media report, at least 1,660 police personnel have been killed by terrorists in Kashmir since 1990. Though it is not clear that how many of these 1,660 policemen were SPOs, according to SATP data at least five of 27 policemen killed in incidents of targeted killing in 2018 were SPOs, while another three joined as SPOs, but were later absorbed into the State Police Force.
Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has 78,348 policemen in position against a sanctioned strength of 89,954. In addition, there are over 30,000 SPOs to assist the Policemen. This entire Police Force has played a significant role in fighting Pakistan-backed terrorism and helped dramatically improve the security situation in the State.
The Police and SPOs are soft targets, as they are not as well equipped and trained as their counterparts in the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) and the Army units deployed in the State. These vulnerabilities are increased further as they live within the general population with their families, and not in fortified camps, as is the case with Army and CAPF personnel. Since the people working in the Police are local residents, their killing instills a wider fear across the population.
The fall of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coalition Government in June 2018, has brought about a measure of political uncertainty in the State. The process of local body elections in the State has now commenced, with the State Election Commission (SEC) announcing, on September 15, the poll schedule for Municipal Elections in J&K. The municipal election will be held in four phases starting from October 8 and ending on October 16. Counting will be held on October 20 after all the phases are over. The entire electoral exercise will be completed by October 27. Then on September 16, SEC announced a nine-phase schedule for Panchayat (village level local self-Government institution) elections in the State, beginning November 17 and ending December 11, with the entire election process to be completed by December 17.
On August 27, 2018, the fourth election to the 30-seat Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC) Kargil had been held, with more than 70 per cent of the electorate turning out to exercise their franchise. Elections were held on 26 seats, of which the National Conference (NC) bagged 10 seats, the Congress, eight; PDP, two; and the BJP, one. Five seats were won by independents. The remaining four seats will be filled through nominations.
The last Panchayat elections in the State were held in 2011, and were quite successful. Over 79 percent of the electorate had exercised their right to vote, between April 13 to June 27, 2011, in the Panchayat elections. Though the Panchayats completed their term in July 2016, elections could not be held because the security situation in the state remained fraught.
With the election process in motion once again, terrorist efforts to disrupt the process are escalating. The targeting of Policemen is part of this effort. However, an unnamed senior police officer asserted, “There is no fear psychosis among policemen, no matter which wing they are affiliated with. But militants are trying to create that (fear)…”
This time around, however, the beginnings are not encouraging. The two political formation dominant in the Valley – the PDP and the National Conference – have already announced their decision to boycott the panchayat elections, unless the Centre and the State Government clarify their stance on Articles 370 (autonomous status of J&K) and 35A (special rights and privileges of ‘permanent residents’)of the Indian Constitution. The two articles have been a critical element in the polarizing politics of the BJP, which holds power at the Centre. 35A is the subject of ongoing litigation in the Supreme Court, and each hearing provokes significant political tremors in the Valley.
Further, there does appear to be a pall of fear in some areas of the State, dampening the enthusiasm for election. According to reports, no nomination has been received for the five wards of the Frisal Municipal Committee in Kulgam District. Only five nominations have been received in 17 wards of the Bijbehara Municipal Committee in Anantnag District. Both these Districts fall in the South Kashmir region, which has recorded the maximum number of killings of Policemen in 2018, thus far. In contrast, 198 nominations were received for 41 wards in the Udhampur District.
The state machinery is under pressure to conduct these elections successfully as the Assembly and Parliamentary elections fall due. It is useful to recall here that only seven per cent polling was reported in the Srinagar Lok Sabha by-election held on April 9, 2017. Widespread violence was reported during the polls. Eight persons were killed in police firing and over a hundred were injured in clashes between protesters and SFs on polling day. Former J&K Chief Minister and National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah had won the seat, defeating his nearest PDP rival, Nazir Ahmed Khan. During 2014, the Parliamentary constituency had recorded a low 25.86 per cent poling against an average of 49.52 per cent for the State. The national average was 66.4 per cent. In Assembly Elections held in 2014 the state had recorded 65.52 per cent polling.
Another significant reason for the increasing number of targeted killings of Policemen is the substantial loss – both in terms of quality and number – suffered by terrorists in recent years. According to SATP data, at least 184 terrorists have been killed in the current year, so far, as against 160 terrorists killed during the corresponding period of 2017. The total number of terrorists killed through 2017 stood at 218, the highest recorded in this category since 2010, with 270 such fatalities. Significantly, operational successes in the recent years have been primarily due to the improvement in the quality of intelligence gathered, the credit for which goes substantially to the SPOs and local policemen. The targeting to these cadres is, consequently, also a measure of the desperation with which the terrorist formations are fighting to stem the tide of their own losses.
Further, despite relentless efforts, Islamabad has failed in its attempt to push Kashmir back into the chaos of the 1990s and early 2000s. The overall security situation in the state is far from alarming and “much of the panicked assessment of the troubles in J&K” is misleading. Crucially, residual violence is extremely localised. Just five of 82 tehsils in the state have accounted for over 48.71 per cent of all fatalities in 2018; and for over 65 per cent of all reported stone-pelting incidents [SATP data till September 30, 2018.
Targeted killings of SFs, primarily Policemen and SPOs, are likely to continue, even as candidates in the panchayat elections will come under threat. The protection of every single candidate in these elections is an imperative, and will have a crucial impact on participation in the coming Assembly and National Elections.
Andhra Pradesh: Audacious Hit Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
In an audacious attack, on September 23, 2018, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres gunned down Kidari Sarveswara Rao, a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) from the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Siveru Soma, a former MLA, also belonging to TDP, near Livitiput village in Dumbriguda mandal (administrative sub-division) in the agency area of Visakhapatnam District. More than 50 armed Maoists targeted the duo when they were travelling in two cars to the village to have a meeting with the girijans (the tribals of the Agency area) who were agitating to press their demand for the closure of mines at Araku, allegedly obtained by MLA Rao in the name of his brother-in-law B. Rajendra. The tribals claimed that the mines were contaminating water resources in the region. According to the Police, both Rao and Soma had received threats from the Maoists in the past. With a clear plan, Maoists surrounded the duo when they were going towards the village with little security and killed them.
Commenting on the attack, Chiruvolu Srikant, Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Police, Visakhapatnam Range, disclosed, “The Maoists opened fire from point-blank range first at former MLA Soma and then at the MLA (Rao), killing both of them on the spot.” The Maoists also took away the weapons, including two 9 mm pistols and one 9 mm carbine from the three PSOs (personal security officers), accompanying the leaders, before the security persons could react and open fire.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister (CM), and TDP chief Nara Chandrababu Naidu, condemned the attack, stating, “Kidari and Siveri’s efforts for development of tribals and agency areas are unique…”
The last ‘successful’ attack on legislators in then undivided Andhra Pradesh was orchestrated on August 15 (Independence Day), 2005, when an action team of the People's War Group (PWG) brutally killed the Chittam Narsi Reddy, then MLA from Makthal Assembly, belonging to the ruling Indian National Congress, and eight others at Narayanpet in the Mahboobnagar District. The dead included the legislator’s youngest son, C. Venkateshwar Reddy; Narayanpet Municipal Commissioner D.V. Ram Mohan Rao; the MLA's driver Srinu; bodyguard Raja Reddy; the Revenue Development Officer`s Secretary, Sayanna; and Congress workers Ravinder Reddy, Mohan and Lokeshwar Reddy. The group was participating at a public function to launch work on a cement road.
There have been two earlier attacks in the State targeting legislators, though these were unsuccessful. The first recorded attack was reported in 1998, when cadres of the Communist Party of India (Marxist Leninist) – People’s War (also, the People’s War Group, PWG) carried out an attack near Kathlapur village in Karimnagar District, targeting the then Chief Minister, N. Chandrababu Naidu, while he was campaigning for the Metpally Assembly by-election. Though Naidu survived the attack, the constables present on the spot sustained severe injuries.
Almost five years, later, on October 1, 2003, Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu was again targeted by PWG cadres, who triggered a powerful landmine blast that ripped through Naidu’s motorcade on a forest road between Tirupati and Tirumala in Chittoor District. Though Naidu again survived unharmed, five persons, including the State's Information Technology Minister, B. Gopalakrishna Reddy, suffered injuries.
The latest incident clearly suggests that concerns regarding Left Wing Extremism (LWE) threat in Andhra Pradesh are well-founded, though the Maoist prowess has long been on the wane. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), during the current year, till September 30, 2018, two incidents of LWE-linked killing have been recorded in the State, in which three persons, all of them civilians, including the September 23 killings, have died. In the corresponding period of 2017, at least six persons, including two civilians, one Security Force (SF) trooper and three extremists were killed. Through 2017, a total of nine fatalities, including five civilians, one SF trooper and three extremists, were registered. The highest number of fatalities, at 320 (including 132 civilians, 21 SF personnel and 167 Left-Wing Extremists), were recorded in 2005, in then undivided Andhra Pradesh. Fatalities in LWE-related violence in the State have seen a continuous decline since 2006, with the exception of transient reverses in 2010, 2013 and 2016. Cumulative fatalities in LWE-linked violence in Andhra Pradesh since 2005 stand at 742, including 276 civilians, 37 SF personnel, and 429 extremists.
According to an August 9, 2018, report, the Maoists have decided to organise more village meetings to augment their cadre base, with a focus on the Galikonda area of Ananthagiri mandal in Visakhapatnam District, an area which they once dominated, but where they have weakened considerably. The same report also revealed that the Maoists’top leadership had entrusted this revival to Boda Anjayya aka Naveen, ‘chief’ of the Korukonda Area Committee, and a trusted lieutenant of Gajarla Ravi aka Uday, currently in-charge of the Andhra-Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC) region.
Earlier, on June 16, 2018, West Godavari District Superintendent of Police (SP), M. Ravi Prakash disclosed that, in their struggle to revive, the Maoists were using Polavaram, Velairpadu and Kukunuru mandals in the West Godavari Agency areaas a shelter zone.
According to the latest data released by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on March 27, 2018, eight Districts [Anantapur, East Godavari, Guntur, Kurnool, Prakasam, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam and Vizianagaram] of Andhra Pradesh are afflicted by LWE-violence. One of these, Vishakhapatnam, is still among the 30 worst Maoist-affected Districts in the country, listed by UMHA.
Meanwhile, UMHA has taken some new measures for the development of Andhra Pradesh. On August 3, 2018, replying to an answer in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of the India Parliament), Minister of State for Finance, P. Radhakrishnan, stated that under section 46 (3) of Andhra Pradesh Re-organisation Act, 2014, a Special Development Package for the seven backward Districts of the State, amounting to INR 21 billion, had been announced, with INR three billion going to each District. An amount of INR 10.5 billion (three instalments of INR 3.5 billion at INR 500 million per District) had been disbursed for backward areas and a further amount of INR 10.5 billion would be released in a second phase. The Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Act, 2014, identified Anantapur, Kurnool, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, YSR Kadapa and Chittoor, as backward Districts. The first five of these are in the list of eight LWE affected Districts in the State.
Earlier, on July 19, 2018, Ram Kripal Yadav, Minister of State in the Union Ministry of Rural Development (MoRD), in his reply in the Lok Sabha (the Lower House of India’s Parliament), stated that MoRD, inter alia, was implementing the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana –National Rural Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NRLM), Deen Dayal Upadhyay – Gramin Kaushalya Yojana (DDU-GKY), Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana – Gramin (PMAY-G), Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) and the National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP) to bring about overall improvement in the quality of life of the people in rural areas including Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, through employment generation, strengthening of livelihood opportunities, promoting self-employment, skilling of rural youths, provision of social assistance and other basic amenities. These are expected to impact further on the dwindling Maoist recruitment base in the State.
Andhra Pradesh has fought the Maoist with extraordinary success, transforming itself from the country’s worst affected State through the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, to one that is, at worst, marginally affected. Despite the reverses they have suffered, however, it is clear that the Maoists have not given up, nor have they lost their capacities to strike against high value targets. It is unlikely that the September 23 killings will go unanswered, and the Police is likely to intensify operations against the surviving LWE elements, most of whom find relative safety across State borders in the Andhra-Odisha-Chhattisgarh trijunction. A review of security for high-value targets also appears to be overdue, to ensure that complacency has not crept in to create new vulnerabilities.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia September 24-30, 2018
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Assam
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Biometric technology solo responsibility of the election body, says IEC Spokesman Syed Hafeezullah Hashami: The Independent Election Commission (IEC) Spokesman Syed Hafeezullah Hashami on September 26 termed the use of biometric technology as the solo responsibility of the election body and said no one would be allowed to interfere in the process. He added that there was need for 22,000 sets of biometric system out of which 4,400 were handed over to the IEC today and the remaining 17,600 would be provided in the coming eight days. He said so far over nine million voters had been entered into the database, adding that voter lists of 14 provinces had been published on the IEC website. Pajhwok, September 29, 2018.
US military is adjusting tactics in Afghanistan as the Taliban continue to inflict heavy casualties on local forces, says US Defense Secretary James Mattis: United States (US) Defense Secretary James Mattis said on September 23 that the US military is adjusting tactics in Afghanistan as the Taliban continue to inflict heavy casualties on local forces. Tolonews, September 26, 2018.
250 terrorists trying to sneak into India from PoK, says Army commander Brigadier YS Ahlawat: "There are about 250 terrorists in 27 launch pads across the LoC [Line of Control]. There is neither a dip nor a change in policy on terrorism in Pakistan,'' said Brigadier YS Ahlawat, commander of a Brigade at the LoC. The Army has adopted a robust posture along the LoC tracking the movement of terrorists and even Pakistan Army regulars close to the LoC. As the soldiers spot some suspicious movement across the LoC, they open fire. India Today, September 30, 2018.
Will soon take retaliatory action against Pakistan, says BSF DG K K Sharma: The Border Security Force (BSF) on September 28 vowed strong retaliatory action against Pakistan, saying it was witnessing a “more aggressive stance” of the opponent along the International Border (IB) in Jammu and Kashmir after Imran Khan became Prime Minister. Outgoing BSF Director General (DG) K K Sharma said that his troops were waiting for the right time to strike back against the enemy in retaliation to the recent killing of their jawan (trooper) along the IB in the State. Daily Excelsior, September 29, 2018.
‘Sikh For Justice’ plans for its next ‘Referendum 2020’ campaign in Pakistan: The United States (US) based pro-Khalistan group— Sikhs For Justice (SFJ) plans to schedule its next ‘Referendum 2020’— a pro-Khalistan campaign in Pakistan in 2019. The next event will be at Nankana Sahib ji (a Gurdwara dedicated to the birth place of Guru Nanak Dev ji) in Pakistan’s Punjab Province, said SFJ’s legal advisor— Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The campaign will be aligned with the celebrations of 550th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev ji, and expected to attract thousands of devotees from around the world. Hindustan Times, September 28, 2018.
Two years post ‘surgical strikes’, firing across LoC up four times, says report: Two years after the ‘surgical strikes’, firing from across the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan has risen four times while infiltration by terrorists continues unabated. A positive development is that the number of militants getting killed at the LoC has risen, the report said. On September 29, 2016, the Indian Army hit at multiple terror camps inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and destroyed terror launch pads. The Tribune, September 27, 2018.
Terror camp hit by surgical strike in 2016 active again along LoC in Jammu and Kashmir, says report: Terror groups backed by Pakistan’s army were setting up eight new launch pads along the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) including those in Lipa Valley, one of the two strategic locations which was destroyed by the Indian Army during its surgical strikes in September 2016. Approximately 250 terrorists are waiting to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir from 27 launch pads in PoK, top intelligence sources said. Times of India, September 27, 2018.
Ban on Tripura based NLFT and ATTF to continue: According to officials, ban on All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) and National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) will be reinforced with a fresh ban under Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) following a review by Government of India. ATTF and NLFT were banned in 1997. A senior Government official stated that ‘Both NLFT and ATTF are active. Their debarment was to expire on October 2, ahead of which inputs were sought from the state government and security agencies. Indian Express, September 26, 2018.
Terrorism in Kashmir is Pakistan-sponsored, says UHM Rajnath Singh: Union Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh on September 24 said that the Government is “ready to talk to everyone” over the Kashmir issue, while asserting that terrorism in the Valley is “Pakistan-sponsored”. He said, “I think the (Kashmir) matter will be resolved. We are ready to talk to everyone. As far as terrorism is concerned, all security agencies are working in coordination.” “Terrorism in Kashmir is Pakistan-sponsored,” he said. Daily Excelsior, September 25, 2018.
Nepal’s peace process an inspiration for many, says Prime Minister KP Oli: Prime Minister KP Oli addressing the 73rd United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York on September 27 has said that the conflict transformation in Nepal could be an inspiring success story for the many people longing for peace in different parts of the world. Prime Minister Oli said “Nepal’s ending of the decade-long Maoist conflict through peaceful means is a unique example of peaceful and democratic transition. It is a telling testimony that dialogue triumphs over differences; and ballot triumphs over bullets. My Republica, September 29, 2018.
Nepal accomplished implementing Constitution through free, fair and impartial elections, says Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli: Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli addressing the 73rd United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 28 said that Nepal accomplished implementing Constitution through free, fair and impartial elections with record turnout of people from all sections of our society. “The elections brought 41% of women into elected bodies. We remain committed to bridging gap of the remaining 9 per cent,” Oli added. The Kathmandu Post, September 28, 2018.
Terrorism has been effectively contained, says CoAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa: The Chief of the Army Staff (CoAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa on September 27 said terrorism has been effectively contained with the nation’s support. He delivered the keynote address on “Security of Pakistan” in the three-day international conference at the Air University, Islamabad, on “Radicalisation: Perceptions, Realities and Challenges of Campus Life”, says an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) press release. The COAS talked in detail about the security situation of the country and his vision of enduring peace in Pakistan and in the region. The News, September 28, 2018.
Pakistan unlikely to change its behaviour over terrorism, says Pakistan's former ambassador to United States Husain Haqqani: The Pakistani leadership defines terrorism differently than the United States (US) Government and is unlikely to act against all terrorist groups as demanded by Washington, Pakistan's former ambassador to US Husain Haqqani said on September 26. In an article in the journal 'American Interest', Haqqani said that Pakistani leaders' view of their country's interests in Afghanistan, differ vastly from those of the US and that limits the prospects of cooperation in ending the Afghan war. Times of India, September 27, 2018.
UN Secretary General assures to support Sri Lanka in its efforts to build reconciliation and strengthen democracy: United Nations (UN) Secretary General Antonio Guterres has assured Sri Lanka's President Maithripala Sirisena that the UN will continue to support Sri Lanka in its efforts to build reconciliation and strengthen democracy. President Maithripala Sirisena briefed the UN chief about Sri Lanka's progress in strengthening democracy, rule of law, media freedom and reconciliation during a meeting at the UNSG's office at the UN Headquarters in New York. ColomboPage , September 29, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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