South Asia Terrorism Portal
Chabahar Entente Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Mahmoud Saikal, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to the United Nations (UN), during a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting on The Situation in Afghanistan on December 17, 2018, welcomed the United States (US) move to exempt the Chabahar Port (also known as Shahid Beheshti Port) from its sanctions on Iran. Saikal stated that “we appreciate the collaboration and flexibility of our strategic partner, the United States to work with Afghanistan, Iran and India towards exempting the port from its Sanctions".
On November 6, 2018, the US exempted India from imposition of certain sanctions with respect to the development of Chabahar Port in Iran. A day earlier, US Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo had announced that India and seven other countries could continue to import crude oil from Iran despite the sanctions on that country declaring, that the “U.S. will be granting these exemptions to China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey.”
Earlier on the same day, the US Department of Treasury stated in a Press Release that the US had fully re-imposed sanctions on the Iranian Regime. The release read,
On January 16, 2016, after the US Secretary of State had confirmed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s verification that Iran has implemented its key nuclear-related measures described in the JCPOA, the US lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, in accordance with the JCPOA.
Significantly, on May 23, 2016, during Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narnedra Modi’s visit to Iran, Afghanistan, India, and Iran had signed the Trilateral Agreement on Establishment of International Transport and Transit Corridor (also known as the Chabahar Agreement). A meeting of transport ministers of the three countries was held in New Delhi on September 28, 2016, during which they “exchanged views on the next steps for the implementation of the trilateral agreement”. Several developments occurred thereafter.
Significantly, on October 29, 2017, the first shipment of wheat from India to Afghanistan was flagged off, to be transhipped through the Chabahar Port in Iran. The shipment was part of the commitment made by the Government of India to supply 1.1 million tonnes of wheat for the people of Afghanistan on a grant basis. The shipment reached Chabahar Port on November 1, 2017, and later reached the Afghan city of Zaranj near the Iran-Afghanistan border on November 10 via road. The shipment paved the way for the operationalisation of the Chabahar port as an alternate, reliable and robust route for Afghanistan. 2000 metric tons of pulses from India to Afghanistan have also been shipped through this Port.
Later, on December 3, 2017, the inauguration of Phase-1 of the Shahid Beheshti Port at Chabahar. The total traffic at the Port is expected to grow gradually.
On March 21, 2018, the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Indian Parliament) was informed that during Iranian President’s visit to New Delhi, India and Iran had reiterated their commitment for early and full operationalisation of the Port.
India and Iran have been in continuous contact with regard to the development of the Chabahar Port, in line with the Tehran Declaration (2001) and the New Delhi Declaration (2003). India’s Cabinet Committee on Security had approved India’s Ministry of External Affairs’ proposal regarding India’s participation in the Chabahar Port Project on October 18, 2014. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for operationalizing the Chabahar Project was signed on May 5, 2015. Later in May 2016, during PM Modi’s visit to Iran a commercial contract for the development and operation of the Chabahar Port between India Ports Global Private Ltd (IPGPL, a consortium of Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Kandla Port Trust) and Iran’s Arya Banader was signed. The Lok Sabha was informed on March 15, 2017, that
The contract is for the period of 10 years.
According to the Indian Government’s assessment,
Access to Afghanistan has long been a sore issue between India and Pakistan, with Islamabad denying all transit across the land route, even for humanitarian supplies. For instance, Indian PM Narendra Modi during his visit to Afghanistan in December 2015, had promised 1.7 lakh tonnes of wheat to Kabul, which was facing an acute food shortage, but Pakistan denied permission deliver the Indian consignment across Pakistani territory. Most recently, on September 17, 2018, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi reportedly stated that that there was a need to first resolve technical and strategic issues linked with transit trade in the region. Not surprisingly, the military establishment in Pakistan has always opposed the Indian role in development of Chabahar Port. A week after the signing of the trilateral agreement on May 23, 2016, former defence secretary Lt-Gen (Retd.) Asif Yasin Malik, during a workshop on May 30, 2016, stated, “The alliance between India, Afghanistan and Iran is a security threat to Pakistan”. At the same event, Lt-Gen (Retd.) Nadeem Lodhi stressed that such a “formidable bloc” in the neighbourhood has “ominous and far-reaching implications” for Pakistan. In March 2018, Major General Asif Ghafoor, Director General of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) – the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces – stated, “India has been busy in fomenting unrest through terrorism using Afghan soil,” and mentioned Kulbhushan Jadhav, an alleged Indian spy currently in Pakistan’s custody, as an example. Pakistan claims that Jadhav, an Indian national, was arrested in the Pakistani Province of Balochistan on charges of terrorism and spying for India's intelligence agency, the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). However, India maintains that Jadhav was kidnapped from Iran, where he had business interests after retiring from the Indian Navy.
Pakistan is also worried that the development of the Chabahar Port will undermine the importance of its Gwadar Port, which is situated at a distance of approximately 72 kilometres from Chabahar. According to a September 15, 2003, report, an unnamed Pakistani official observed,
Chabahar has already witnessed two major terror attacks since then. On December 14, 2010, at least 41 people were killed and another 90 injured in a suicide attack outside the Imam Hussein Mosque in Chabahar. Jundallah (Soldiers of God), a Sunni militant group, that operates both in Iran and Pakistan, took responsibility for the attack. Most recently, on December 6, 2018, a suicide attack on a Police Station in Chabahar killed four persons and wounded 42. On December 8, 2018, Iran’s Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi, without naming Pakistan, stated that Iran holds regional sponsors of terrorism and spy services accountable for the horrific incident. Reports now indicate that Ansar al-Furqan, a Sunni militant outfit, with close links to the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), claimed responsibility for the attack.
A safe and secure Chabahar Port enormously serves the interests of India, Afghanistan and Iran. The facilities at the port as well as operational mechanism along the established transit route need to be strengthened further, and could be a critical factor in the geopolitical balance of the South-Central Asian region.
Presidential Paroxysms S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
34 days after Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena plunged the country into an unprecedented political crisis by dissolving the Parliament on November 9, 2018, the Supreme Court (SC) of Sri Lanka ruled, on December 13, 2018, that President Sirisena's decision was illegal and unconstitutional. The verdict was delivered by a seven-judge bench headed by Chief Justice Nalin Perera.
President Sirisena set off a rolling crisis when he sacked the Prime Minister and leader of the United National Party (UNP) Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 26, 2018, and appointed former President and Kurunegala District Member of Parliament (MP) Mahinda Rajapaksa to the post. Justifying his sudden political maneuver while addressing the nation on October 28, 2018, President Sirisena declared,
However, as President Sirisena realized that his de facto Prime Minister, Rajapaksa, would not command a majority in Parliament, in an extraordinary Gazette notification he announced the dissolution of Parliament with effect from November 9, midnight, and scheduled general elections to be held on January 5, 2019.
In the 225-member House, the Rajapaksa-Sirisena combine had only 95 seats and was clearly short of a simple majority. Wickremesinghe’s UNP had 106 seats on its own, and was just seven short of the majority. The Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP, People's Liberation Front) which has six legislators had already announced that they would vote in favor of Wickremesinghe. Rajapaksa, who ruled the country from 2005 to 2015 and had been accused of grave human rights abuses and corruption, was unlikely to gain the backing of the 16 parliamentarians of the main Tamil party, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA).
On the other hand, on November 12, 2018, several political parties including UNP, JVP, the TNA, Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) and the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC), as well as the civil society organization, the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), and Attorney Aruna Laksiri filed petitions, naming President Sirisena, Prime Minister Rajapaksa, the Elections Commission and its members as respondents. The petitioners assert that the President had no power to dissolve Parliament under the 19th Amendment to the Constitution and requested the Apex Court to issue an order quashing the gazette notification issued by the President, and suspending the proclaimed General Election until a verdict on the petition.
After the SC ruling, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was sworn-in on December 16, 2018, for a fifth time as the Prime Minister, ending a nearly two-month long political crisis.
However, in the wake of the SC ruling, bringing the political crisis back to square one, President Maithripala Sirisena told a parliamentary group of the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) on December 13, 2018, that he was not ready to work with UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe at any cost. At the meeting, he decided not to be party to any National Unity Government with the UNP. The National Unity Government was formed on August 20, 2015, with a coalition between UPFA and the UNP. Earlier, speaking to media after the meeting with the President, UNP MP Akila Viraj Kariyawasam on December 3, 2018, had disclosed, “The President insisted that he will not make Ranil Wickremesinghe the Prime Minister even if 225 MPs support him.”
Indicating that the two leaders are still at loggerheads, President Sirisena named a 30-member Cabinet on December 20, 2018, while ignoring some of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s nominees, and retained control over the country’s security forces and the Police. UNP had forwarded a list of 36 Ministers to the President, but President reduced the size of the Cabinet to 30, including himself and the Prime minister. Amongst Wickremesinghe's nominees who Sirisena ignore were three MPs who had defected from Srisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) on December 18, 2018. Lakshman Seneviratne, Vijith Vijayamuni Soysa and Indika Bandaranayake had crossed over to the United National Front (UNF) Government led by the UNP.
President Sirisena and the Constitutional Council (CC) are also on a collision course over the appointment of judges to the SC and the Court of Appeal. The President has refrained from appointing Justice Gamini Amarasekara and S.Thurairajah as SC judges, despite CC recommendations. The CC had recommended the two names out of those submitted by the President on October 25, 2018. Instead of appointing them, the President referred another two names - K.K. Wickremesinghe and Deepali Wijesundara – to the CC to be appointed as the SC judges. Meanwhile, the President had also withheld the appointment of Justice K.P. Fernando to the Court of Appeal, again despite the CC’s recommendation. The CC met on December 21, 2018, and decided to stick to its recommendations despite the President’s refusal, and declined to consider any other Presidential nominee to the post of the President of the Court of Appeal, other than Justice K.P. Fernando. The CC is a ten-member body chaired by Speaker Karu Jayasuriya. The Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader are its members by virtue of their office.
Meanwhile, the indefinite ‘Sathyagraha’ (Struggle for Truth) campaign launched by Civil Society Organizations and Trade Unions against President Maithripala Sirisena's Government, to protect the Constitution and Democracy, concluded on December 14, 2018, following the SC ruling that the dissolution of Parliament was unconstitutional and illegal. The continuous 'Sathyagraha' had been launched on November 21, 2018, at the Vihara Maha Devi Park in Colombo.
Escalating the confrontation, JVP, moved an adjournment motion on December 18, 2018, to abolish the Executive Presidency, arguing that a majority of the people in the country were against the usurpation of power by a single individual. The Adjournment Motion on "Abolition of the Executive Presidency" was proposed by JVP MP Nalinda Jayathissa. The UNP, led by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, told Parliament that the party would support moves to slash the powers of the President and requested all other Members of Parliament to support JVP's motion to abolish the Executive Presidency.
Welcoming the resolution of the political impasse in Sri Lanka, the United Kingdom Minister for Asia and the Pacific Mark Field, stated, on December 18, 2018,
Similarly, praising the restoration of Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Palladino observed, on December 18, 2018, “
Lauding the "resilience" of Sri Lanka's democratic institutions, United Nations (UN) Secretary General Antònio Guterres on December 20, 2018, welcomed the resolution of the political crisis in the island nation in a peaceful and constitutional manner.
Ending the nearly two-month-long political standoff in the country, President Sirisena has re-appointed Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister, following the SC order. However, the President’s decision to keep the Law and Order Ministry has been disputed by many, who argue that the President was only constitutionally allowed to be the Defence Minister, in addition to retaining the subject of Environment. Moreover, the conflict over Cabinet appointments indicates that Sirisena and Wickremesinghe were still at loggerheads, and the country's political crisis is far from over.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia December 17-23, 2018
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Bihar
INDIA (Total)
Afghan Government is the only institution which has the authority to negotiate a peace deal, says CEO Abdullah Abdullah: The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the National Unity Government (NUG) Abdullah Abdullah has said that the Afghan Government is the only institution which has the authority to negotiate a peace deal with the Taliban. Khaama Press, December 18, 2018.
BNP and JeI are planning to kill Police officers, says Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on December 20 said Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) have worked out two plans ahead of the election - killing Police officers and wooing them with bribes. "They have chalked out these two plans. There is a criminal in London who sends plans," she said, addressing retired senior police officers at a function at her official Ganabhaban residence in Dhaka city. Dhaka Tribune, December 22, 2018.
Pakistan attempting to fuel Khalistan fire in Punjab, says UHM Rajnath Singh: Addressing the three-day annual conference of Director-Generals [DGs], and Inspector-Generals [IGs] of Police at Kevadiya in Narmada District of Gujarat, the Union Home Minister [UHM] Rajnath Singh has said that the recent incidents of terrorism in Punjab indicates the efforts of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] and Sikh extremists based in Pakistan to revive the Khalistan militancy in Punjab, with active support of other Sikh extremists, mainly based in Europe and North American countries. Pakistan is trying to build a fake understanding between the pro-Khalistan Sikh extremist groups and Pakistan-based Islamist outfits, including Kashmir-centric terrorist groups for targeting Indian interests, said UHM Singh. The Tribune, December 20, 2018.
Pakistani financing for militants and separatists in Jammu and Kashmir cause of concern, says UHM Rajnath Singh: Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh on December 20 said that financing from across the border (Pakistan) for militants and separatists in Jammu and Kashmir remained a cause of concern and charged the separatists with trying to exploit every possible situation in the Valley to further ‘anti-India sentiments’, leading to law and order problem. He charged Pakistan with trying to keep the pot boiling in Kashmir by keeping terror infrastructure and communication control stations intact in their country. Daily Excelsior, December 21, 2018.
President’s rule comes in to force in Jammu and Kashmir: After completion of six months of Governor’s rule on December 19, Jammu and Kashmir came under President’s rule from midnight paving the way for the Union Cabinet to take all policy decisions related to the militancy-hit State. President Ram Nath Kovind signed the proclamation for imposition of President’s rule in the State. The gazette notification issued on December 19 afternoon by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), Department of Jammu and Kashmir Affairs, said the President has received a report from Governor Satya Pal Malik and after considering it and other information, he was “satisfied” that President’s rule in the State was needed. Daily Excelsior, December 20, 2018.
Will take Jammu and Kashmir away from path of violence, says Prime Minister Narendra Modi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on December 19 said that he as well as the Central Government were committed to empowerment of the people of Jammu and Kashmir and will stand with local Government representatives for welfare of the State and fulfill aspirations of the masses. He also hoped that empowerment of democratic institutions in Jammu and Kashmir will be a significant step in taking the State away from path of violence. Daily Excelsior, December 20, 2018.
Army targeting and destroying terror camps in Pakistan, says Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman: Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on December 18 said that the Indian Army has been targeting and destroying terrorist camps in Pakistan to reduce number of infiltration attempts and militants sneaking into this side and declared that Pakistan has been isolated globally for aiding and abetting terrorism. “We are doing it. We are finishing them (the terrorist camps). Please don’t ask for proof. I won’t disclose where, but we have been targeting and destroying the terrorist camps (in Pakistan),’’ Sitharaman said. Daily Excelsior, December 19, 2018.
Pakistan’s nexus with ‘Sikhs For Justice’ exposed, says Punjab CM: The Chief Minister [CM] of Punjab—Capt. Amarinder Singh on December 18 has said that the statement by the United States [US] based pro-Khalistan group—Sikhs For Justice [SFJ] has revealed the relation between the group and Pakistan’s Army and Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] to ‘liberate’ Punjab from India. Pakistan’s decision to open the Kartarpur Corridor was an ISI game-strategy to support anti-India elements which includes SFJ outfit. Indian Express, December 19, 2018.
India may receive no benefits from agreements except easy visa arrangements, says President Solih: Addressing the press conference during his maiden State visit to India, the Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih on December 19 has stated that except for easy visa rules, India will not obtain any benefits from its recent agreements with the Maldives. During Solih’s visit, Maldives and India has signed four documents: ‘Agreement on the Facilitation of Visa Arrangements’, ‘Memorandum of Understanding [MoU] on Cultural Cooperation’, ‘MoU for establishing Mutual Cooperation to Improve the Ecosystem for Agri-business’, and ‘Joint Declaration of Intent on Cooperation in the field of Information, and Communications Technology [ICT] and Electronics’. Maldives Times, December 20, 2018.
India announces USD 1.4 billion financial aid to the Maldives, says report: In a joint statement with the visiting Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the Indian Prime Minister [PM] Narendra Modi on December 17 has announced that India will provide a financial aid worth USD 1.4 billion to the Maldives. India is going to provide a financial assistance of USD 1.4 billion in the form of budgetary support, currency swap agreements, and concessional lines of Credit targeting the Social and Economic development of the Maldives, said PM Modi. Avas.mv, December 18, 2018.
Price of peace in Nepal is NR 166 billion and still counting, says MoHA: According to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) the price of peace in Nepal is NR 166 billion and still counting. Although work on one of the three building blocks of the peace process – transitional justice for conflict victims — is yet to begin in earnest, a rough calculation of the money spent so far has reached the astounding figure of over NR 166 billion. The two other building blocks of the peace process were promulgating a new constitution through an elected Constituent Assembly (CA) and management of the erstwhile Maoist combatants. My Republica, December 21, 2018.
Kashmir dispute 'not a bilateral issue' between Pakistan and India, PM Imran Khan tells UN chief Antonio Guterres: Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan on December 20 telephoned United Nations (UN) Secretary General Antonio Guterres to convey his "deep shock and grave concern" at the human rights violations committed by Indian security forces in Kashmir. The PM during the conversation "underscored [the] UN's role to end these violations", a statement issued by PM office said. Citing the recent escalation in violence in the restive valley, especially the killing of more than a dozen civilians and injuries to over 300 protestors, Khan termed the situation as “unacceptable”. "Jammu and Kashmir dispute is not a bilateral issue between Pakistan and India but an internationally recognised dispute and an outstanding agenda item in the UN Security Council," the statement quoted the PM as telling the UN chief. Dawn, December 21, 2018.
Pakistan seeks 'just durable and peacefully negotiated' solution of the Kashmir issue, says Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi: Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said on December 18 that his country was looking for a "just durable and a peacefully negotiated" solution of the Kashmir issue. Qureshi made the remarks while addressing the participants of National Security and War Course at National Defence University (NDU) in Islamabad. "While safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state we are maintaining credible national security capabilities to deter aggression," he said while highlighting the cardinals of Pakistan's foreign policy, challenges as well as opportunities. Pakistan was "seeking a just durable and a peacefully negotiated solution of the Kashmir dispute," the foreign minister added. Times of India, December 19, 2018.
Constitutional Council and President on collision course over appointments of judges to Supreme Court and Court of Appeal: Constitutional Council (CC) and President Maithripala Sirisena are reported to be on a collision course over the appointments of judges to the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal. The President has refrained from appointing Justice Gamini Amarasekara and S.Thurairajah as Supreme Court judges despite the CC recommending their appointment. The CC recommended these two names out of those submitted by the President on October 25. Instead of appointing them, the President has referred two other names - K.K. Wickremesinghe and Deepali Wijesundara – to the CC for approval to be appointed as the Supreme Court judges. Daily Mirror, December 22, 2018.
Over 69,000 acres of land used by Army in North East following end of the war had been released since 2009, says Army: Army said over 69,000 acres of land used by the Army in the North East following the end of the war had been released since 2009. The Army said since May 18, 2009, the Army has used 84523.84 acres of land in the North and East and 69754.59 acres of that land had been released in a manner that would not be harmful to the national security. According to a senior military official this extent of private and state land had been released until November 25, 2018. Colombo Page, December 18, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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