South Asia Terrorism Portal
Odisha: Malkangiri: Eroding 'Safe Haven' Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On November 4, 2018, at least five ‘area committee members (ACMs)’ of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), including a woman cadre, were killed in an exchange of fire between Security Forces (SFs) and the Maoists near the Bhejangiwada Forest under Kalimela Police limits of the Malkangiri District. The slain Maoists belonged to Kalimela Dalam (armed squad) of the CPI-Maoist.
On October 12, 2018, a CPI-Maoist woman cadre was killed in an encounter with SFs near the Andrapali Forest in Malkangiri District. The slain Maoist was identified as Gajarla Meena aka Nidiginda Prameela (35), wife of Gajarla Ravi, ‘secretary’ Andhra Pradesh-Odisha Border Special Zone Committee (AOBSZC). She was accused number 23 in the case of the killing of a Telugu Desam Party (TDP) Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) Kidari Sarveswara Rao and former MLA Siveri Soma near Araku on September 23, 2018.
On May 17, 2018, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed at Ramaguda village in Malkangiri District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least eight Maoists have been killed in Malkangiri District since the beginning of 2018 (data till November 18). During the corresponding period in 2017, one Maoist had been killed in the District and, through 2017, Maoist fatalities mounted to two.
Since September 21, 2004, the date of the formation of CPI-Maoist, the District has recorded a total of 94 Maoist fatalities (data till November 18, 2018). The maximum number of Maoist fatalities, 31, was recorded in the year 2016. In two successive encounters in the Bejingi Forest area between Ramgarh and Panasput in the Malkangiri District on October 24 and 27, 2016, SFs killed at least 30 rebels.
On the other hand, SFs lost 86 of their own personnel during this period, the maximum of 60 personnel (during the course of a single year] in three separate incidents in 2008. In two dramatic attacks in rapid succession, on June 29, 2008, at least 38 troopers, including 36 from the elite Greyhounds Force from neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, were killed, mostly by drowning, after Maoists fired at their boat in the Chitrakonda Reservoir in the Malkangiri District. On July 16, 2008, 17 Orissa Police personnel, including six drawn from the State’s Special Operations Group (SOG), died in an explosion while travelling in a ‘mine proof’ vehicle during a ‘combing operation’ in Malkangiri District. This was also where Malkangiri District Collector Vineel Krishna was held hostage for a few days after he had been abducted in early 2011.
The SFs have secured a marginally positive kill ratio of 1:1.09 since 2004. However, they have increasingly dominated the fight since 2009; between January 1, 2009, and November 18, 2018, the SFs have killed 74 Maoists and lost 22 of their own personnel, establishing a kill ratio of 1:3.36.
Crucially, no SF fatality has been recorded in the District since October 25, 2016, when one Andhra Pradesh Greyhounds commando, Mohammed Abu Bakar, was killed in an exchange of fire with the Maoists in the Bejingi Forest area between Ramgarh and Panasput.
Other parameters also indicate that the Maoists are losing their hold in Malkangiri. SFs have arrested 18 Left Wing Extremists (LWE) in the District in the current year (data till November 18, 2018), in addition to 16 such elements in 2017. Also, mounting SF pressure led to the surrender of five LWEs in 2018, in addition to 12 LWEs in 2017. There has been a decline in incidents of abduction in the current year (down from three incidents in 2017 to one in 2018). Arson related incidents were also down from three incidents to one such incident. LWEs were not able to trigger a single blast as compared to three in 2017.
Malkangiri, located on the troubled tri-junction of Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh, occupies an area of 5,791 square kilometres, with 2,321 square kilometres of the District, about 40.08 per cent of its total geographical area, under forest cover. The District shares its borders with Vishakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh to the East; Sukma in Chhattisgarh to the West; Koraput in Odisha to the North and East; and Godavari in Andhra Pradesh to the South. Blocks like Podia, Maithili, Kalimela; and the Govindpalli areas of Khairput Block; and the ‘cut-off areas’ of Kudumulu Gumma Block, have dense forest coverage. Open forests areas also cover major portions of the Korukonda and Kalimela Blocks, and part of the Malkangiri Block. The terrain and geographical proximity to contiguous Maoist-affected regions in neighbouring States (Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh), have made Malkangiri a perfect area for a guerrilla stronghold and safe haven.
However, since, the two successive encounters in the Bejingi Forest area on October 24 and 27, 2016, the Maoists have lost the sense of impunity in what was previously a major transit route for them to cross over from one State to the other after orchestrating violence against the SFs.
Nevertheless, Maoist violence against civilians persists. According to SATP data, six civilians have already been killed in the current year [data till November 18]. The latest incident was reported on October 23, 2018, when a group of armed CPI-Maoist cadres killed a civilian, Anantaram, at Barubeda village under the Maithili block of Malkangiri District. Around 20 to 25 Maoists raided the village, barged into Anantaram’s house, dragged him outside, accusing him of passing Maoists-related information to Police, and assaulted him on the village road. Later, they took him to Dhakadarashi, about 10 to 15 kilometres away from the village, and killed him. The family members of the deceased found the body the next day morning. The number of civilian fatalities in the District in 2017 totalled 12.
Since the formation of the CPI-Maoist on September 21, 2004, Malkangiri has recorded at least 125 civilian fatalities and is ranked 1stamong a total of 18 Districts in Odisha from where civilian fatalities were registered over this period. Across India, out of 118 Districts from where LWE-linked civilian fatalities have been recorded since the formation of CPI-Maoist, Malkangiri ranked 5th. The Districts which recorded a greater number of civilian fatalities included West Midnapore (West Bengal), 464; Dantewada (Chhattisgarh), 353; Bijapur (Chhattisgarh), 180; and Gadchiroli (Maharashtra), 160.
The Border Security Force (BSF) Inspector General (IG), Special Operations, Ashwini Kumar Singh, on August 13, 2018, claimed that SFs had been able to contain the Maoists and to corner them in some pockets of the area, but conceded,
The Government – both at the Centre and the State – has taken several measures in the past that have helped weaken the Maoists. More developmental and security measures are being taken.
On July 26, 2018, Chief Minister (CM) Naveen Patnaik inaugurated the Gurupriya Bridge (in Malkangiri District), which links the State’s mainland to the erstwhile ‘cut-off area’ of 151 villages and nine Gram Panchayats (village level local self-government institutions) that were severed when the Machhkund Reservoir was constructed in 1960 and later, the Balimela Hydro Power Project came up in 1972. On the occasion, Patnaik announced a Special Package of INR one billion for the District, but particularly targeting people in the ‘cut off area’. The Package aims at expediting the development agenda, including expanding road connectivity, electrification, drinking water supply, healthcare, bridges and fishery. Earlier, on February 20, 2018, a total of 29 road projects estimated at INR 3.5 billion were approved for Malkangiri and Koraput Districts in the first governing body meeting of the newly constituted Odisha State Rural Connectivity Project Agency (OSRCPA), held at State capital Bhubaneswar. Of the sanctioned roads, 16 roads are to be built in Kalimela, Khairaput, Korukonda, Kudumulu Gumma, Malkangiri, Maithili and Podia blocks of Malkangiri District, and 13 are to be constructed in the Boipariguda, Koraput, Lamatapur, Narayanpatna and Semiliguda blocks of Koraput District. The Centre and State Government would share costs on a 60:40 ratio.
On the security front, according to an August 14, 2018, report, two camps have been set up to guard the Gurupriya Bridge, which is also under electronic surveillance. BSF IG Special Operations, Ashwini Kumar Singh, disclosed,
On September 23, 2018, Director General of Police (DGP) Rajendra Prasad Sharma, stated that drone cameras would be deployed by Odisha Police for the surveillance of Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] activities in the LWE-affected areas of Odisha, in the Malkangiri, Rayagada and Koraput Districts.
SF gains in Malkangiri have been astonishing, but difficulties persist. On November 1, 2018, DGP, Sharma admitted, “The Maoist menace is still severe in Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Kalahandi and Kandhamal Districts along with the bordering areas near Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.” Very significant security, administrative and developmental consolidation is still needed if the Maoist threat is to be completely eliminated from Malkangiri and from Odisha.
The Futility of Talks Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On November 9, 2018, Russia hosted the second round of ‘talks’ under the ‘Moscow Format’. The participants included four members of Afghanistan’s High Peace Council (HPC), five ‘delegates’ of the Afghan Taliban, and representatives (either official or unofficial) from 11 other countries – India, Iran, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the United States of America. Though the HPC is a government-appointed body charged with overseeing the ongoing peace processes in the country, according to the Afghanistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) it was sent “in its own capacity as a national but non-government institution”.
In his opening remarks, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated, “today’s event will greatly contribute to the creation of favourable conditions for the launch of direct talks between the Government, the Taliban and representatives of broad public and political forces in Afghanistan”. There were, however, no outcomes after the meet to suggest any positive development in this direction.
Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, Taliban 'spokesperson' stressed, "this conference was not about direct talks", and reiterated his group's position,
Further, the Transcript of the Speech delivered by the Taliban delegation at the Moscow Conference clearly states,
The Taliban has continuously accused the Afghanistan Government of supporting the invading forces.
There was little possibility of any breakthroughs even prior to the Moscow meet. On November 8, 2018, Taliban 'spokesman' Zabihullah Mujahid, had categorically stated, "this conference is not about holding negotiations with any party whatsoever; rather it is about finding a peaceful solution to the issue of Afghanistan… there will not be any sort of negotiations taking place with the delegation of Kabul administration".
Similarly, the Afghanistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) while announcing, on November 5, 2018, that the Afghanistan Government would not send a delegation to attend the meeting voiced the apprehension,
Direct talks between the Taliban and the Afghanistan Government remain improbable.
Significantly, Russia had jumped into the fray few years ago after the successive failures of Pakistan, USA and China to broker peace between the Taliban and the Afghan Government. The seeds of the ‘Moscow Format’ were sown on February 15, 2017, when special representatives from Russia, Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, Iran, and India met and decided to move forward. The first round of consultations under the ‘Moscow Format’ took place on April 14, 2017, and was attended by representatives of 11 countries including Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The US did not take part on the grounds that “the new US administration lacked an Afghanistan strategy at the time.” The second round of consultations were originally scheduled to be held on September 4, 2018, but were postponed, as Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani sought time, “for more preparation and to make it effective so that Afghan and Russian Governments together will manage and host the meeting.”
The Afghan Government had also taken the initiative to engage with the Taliban directly. On August 19, 2018, President Ghani had stated
On August 20, 2018, two unnamed Taliban ‘commanders’ responded with the statement that their supreme leader Sheikh-ul-Hadith Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada had rejected the offer on the grounds that the ceasefire would only help the American-led mission. One of the ‘commanders’ added, “Our leadership feels that they [the US] will prolong their stay in Afghanistan if we announced a ceasefire now.” They also asserted that the outfit would persist with their attacks.
This entire effort yielded no result.
Meanwhile, according to Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)'s latest quarterly report released on October 30, 2018,
Also, according to the Quarterly Report on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: January 1, 2018, to September 30, 2018, released by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) on October 10, 2018, there were a total of 2,798 civilian fatalities during this nine-month period, the second highest number of fatalities in this category during corresponding periods of the previous nine years, beginning 2000, when UNAMA began maintaining data. The highest number of 2,865 fatalities were recorded in 2014. The Taliban are primarily responsible for most of the civilian killings in Afghanistan.
Evidently, the Taliban has become much stronger over recent years and can be expected to put more problematic and impractical pre-conditions for any negotiation process to commence. Insurgent formations rarely seek a negotiated settlement in good faith during periods of their ascendancy or progressive consolidation. The basic premise of various Afghan ‘peace processes’, including the Moscow process, has been misconceived. The Taliban’s conditional participation can only be tactical at the present juncture – aimed at securing greater legitimacy for its ‘Islamic Emirate’, increasing immunity for elements within its leadership, parity with the elected Afghan Government, and opportunities for operational expansion and consolidation. Absent increasing military domination by Afghan and Coalition Forces, any ‘peace process’ will fail and is likely, in fact, to be counterproductive.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia November 12-18, 2018
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
Punjab
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Taliban 'are not losing' in Afghanistan, states US Military General Joseph Dunford: The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States (US) Military General Joseph Dunford has said that the Taliban 'are not losing' in Afghanistan. General Dunford further added "We used the term stalemate a year ago and, relatively speaking, it has not changed much. Khaama, November 19, 2018.
President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani meets leaders of Jamiat Islami Party: President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani on November 16 met with the leaders of Jamiat Islami Party to discuss ongoing efforts regarding Afghan-led peace process. President Ghani met with Jamiat Islami Chief Salahuddin Rabbani, Jamiat Islami Chief Executive Ata Mohammad Noor, and Ismail Khan. The statement further added that the meeting focused on establishment of consultative board for peace. Khaama, November 18, 2018.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the Special Envoy for Afghanistan's Reconciliation has six months to broker peace in Afghanistan, says HPC Head Azizullah Din Mohammad: The Head of the High Peace Council (HPC) Delegation Azizullah Din Mohammad, which attended Moscow meeting on Afghanistan peace talks, stated that United States (US) has given Zalmay Khalilzad, the Special Envoy for Afghanistan's Reconciliation, six months to broker peace in Afghanistan. "He has been given six months to show results to his administration and based on that we are hungry for peace and support any effort to achieve peace" said Azizullah. Tolo News, November 14, 2018.
EC reschedules 11th parliamentary elections for December 30: The Election Commission (EC) on November 12 rescheduled the 11th parliamentary elections for December 30 deferring the schedule it announced four days ago on November 8. Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) KM Nurul Huda came up with the revised schedule a day after the Jatiya Oikya Front decided to join the polls and demanded deferral of the schedule by one month and AQM Badruddoza Chowdhury-led Jukta Front demanded that the polls be rescheduled for December 30. New Age, November 13, 2018.
No concrete evidence that Kashmir youth has joined ISIS, says Lieutenant General A K Bhatt: General-Officer-Commanding (GoC) 15 Corps, Lieutenant General A K Bhatt on November 12 said there was no 'concrete evidence' that the missing youth Ehtisham Bilal Sofi has joined militant outfit Islamic State (IS). "Facts about his joining militant outfit are being ascertained," he said. While referring to the Sharda university incident in which Ehtisham and two other Kashmiri students were allegedly thrashed, Bhat said the Kashmiri students studying in different states of the country "should be taken care of and it should be ensure that such incidents don't take place".Greater Kashmir, November 13, 2018.
GoI will proscribe JMB terrorist group under UA(P)A, says report: The Government of India (GoI), finally initiated the process of proscribing Bangladesh-based terrorist group-Jamaat ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act [UA(P)A] 1967. The proscribing process will enable the Central agencies and all State Police Forces to curb the funding, recruitment and other related activities of the group which is intend to create its bases within India. Times of India, November 15, 2018.
Relative decline in trend of youth joining militancy in Jammu and Kashmir, says Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh: The Army's northern command chief Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh on November 16 said there is a relative decline in the number of youths joining militancy in Kashmir for the past some time. However, he said there have been a large number of reports of radicalisation of youths in the Valley. "As far as recruitment is concerned, it is a matter of satisfaction that for the past some time there has been a relative decline in the number of youths joining militancy," Singh said. Daily Excelsior, November 17, 2018.
Maoists are on the run, says Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh: The incidents of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) violence and the increased seizure of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) by the Security Forces (SFs) during the election campaign in Chhattisgarh are not indicative of any growth in the strength of the banned outfit, stated Union Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh. "Maoists are under tremendous pressure and they are unable to get new recruits. They are increasingly resorting to explosive devices to compensate for their inability to find recruits. Many of them have surrendered in recent months," UHM Singh said while campaigning in Chhattisgarh. The Hindu, November 16, 2018.
Maldives' Parliament supports motion to repeal defamation law, says report: The Maldives' Parliament or People's Majlis on November 14 supported a motion filed by the opposition lawmaker to repeal the defamation law, with 38 Members of Parliament (MPs) in support while 13 MPs in against to the motion. The Defamation law was passed in 2016 despite of criticism, criminalising speech deemed to be defamatory, to comment against "any tenet of Islam", to "threaten National Security" or to "contradict general social norms". Avas.mv, November 15, 2018.
The Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi attended the oath-taking ceremony of President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih on November 17. India was the only country invited at the Head of State/Government level at the Presidential oath-taking ceremony and PM Modi was the first leader Solih met after becoming the Maldivian President. The new Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid will be visiting India on November 26. Maldives Times, November 19, 2018.
Conflict victims work on demand paper to press for justice: Amid delay in probing war-era crimes and cases of human rights violations, conflict victims are coming up with a demand paper to exert pressure on the Government and the political parties to expedite the transitional justice process. Conflict Victims Common Platform (CVCP), the umbrella body of 13 organizations advocating justice for the war-era victims, is holding a national gathering on November 20 to finalize the demand paper. Around 250 conflict victims will gather in the Capital to finalize the document that will present their position on how the transitional justice process should move ahead. Kathmandu Post , November 13, 2018.
Supreme Court overturns dissolution of Parliament and orders to halt preparations for snap elections: Supreme Court on November 13 overruled dissolution of Parliament by President Maithripala Sirisena and ordered to halt preparations for snap elections scheduled for January 5, 2019. The Apex court issued an interim order staying operation of the Gazette proclamation issued by the President dissolving the Parliament until December 7, 2018. The court granted leave to proceed for all the Fundamental Rights petitions heard and the case has been fixed for argument on the on December 5, 6 and 7 of 2018. The court also ordered the independent Elections Commission to halt preparations for the snap election scheduled for January 5 next year. Colombo Page, November 14, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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