Events of the first three months of year 2003 indicate no respite for the people in Assam from terrorist violence. After lying low for some time during the year 2002, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), a proscribed terrorist group, initiated a series of attacks on vital public installations and civilian targets towards the latter part of the last year, and which continue into the present year, in what appeared to be a concerted bid to re-establish the fact that it is still a force to be reckoned with in Assam. The major attacks in the first quarter of year 2003 included:
Such attacks suggest that ULFA’s capacity to strike remains intact; that it has a good stockpile of weapons; and that its cadres are mobile and can strike at places far away from their bases in Bhutan or Bangladesh. The series of attacks also reinforces the group’s consistent rejection of any plausible peace process.
Separately, the National Democratic Front Bodoland (NDFB) that carried out many of the worst killings in the State in the year 2002, had not executed any major terrorist attack in the first quarter of year 2003. The group suffered a major setback when Dhiren Boro, its ‘vice president’, was arrested in Gangtok, capital of the State of Sikkim, on January 1, 2003, and subsequently sent to police custody in Guwahati. Another insurgent group of the Bodo tribe, the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), signed a tripartite agreement following protracted negotiations with the State and Union Governments, on February 10, 2003 at New Delhi. The agreement approved the formation of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) comprising 3,082 ‘Bodo-dominated’ villages in four contiguous districts – Kokrajhar, and three others yet to be created, Sirang, Udalguri and Buxa. A conclusive settlement of the Bodo issue, however, remains a remote possibility as the February 10-Accord is yet to be implemented, and the reaction of NDFB to the Accord remains unclear thus far.
Another insurgent group, the Dima Halim Daogah (DHD), an outfit of the Dimasa tribe that is active in the Karbi Anglong and North Cachar hills districts, has also indicated a willingness to pursue a peace process. The DHD declared on December 30, 2002, its ‘unilateral suspension' of activities and 'cessation of hostilities' with security forces (SFs) with effect from the next day, for a period of six months, to facilitate the commencement of negotiations with the government.
These developments, however, do not reflect any general intent towards the eschewing of violence among the plethora of terrorist and insurgent groups currently active in Assam. In addition to the ULFA, other groups that have been engaged in terrorist activities and civilian killings include United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) and the BLT prior to the signing of the tripartite agreement. Significantly, the UPDS is also now observing a ‘ceasefire’ with the security forces. In all 22 civilians, three SF personnel and 38 terrorists were killed between January 1 and March 28, 2003 in the State. Major attacks in the first quarter of 2003 by the UPDS and the BLT included:
In retrospect, trends in terrorist violence in Assam in the year 2002 showed a relative decline, though the possibilities of a permanent solution to the many ‘small wars’ in the State did not emerge. Although provisional estimates for the year show a decrease of approximately 26 per cent in the overall fatalities in comparison to year 2001, violence, nevertheless, was widespread. 445 persons, including 138 civilians, 32 security force personnel and 275 terrorists were killed in 2002, whereas the year 2001 witnessed the killing of 264 civilians, 59 SF personnel and 283 terrorists, putting the total death toll at 606.
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total
Meanwhile, the geographical spread of violence is an indication that Assam continues to remain conflict-prone. Of the 23 districts in the State, 20 witnessed terrorism-related fatalities, with only Demaji and Morigaon reporting no terrorism-related incident, while instances of terrorism in Jorhat did not result in any fatalities during the year. The major trends in extremist violence were:
Terrorists carried out 12 major massacres in the State during year 2002. While the NDFB carried out seven of these, the DHD was responsible for two and the UPDS and the Manipur-based United National Liberation Front (UNLF) for one each. No group claimed responsibility for the attack on a religious congregation on October 13, 2002, in which five persons were killed.
Besides the NDFB, ULFA, UPDS, and DHD, activities of the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA) were also noticed in the State. Among the various groups, the NDFB remained, by and large, the most lethal in year 2002.
Major civilian massacres in 2002 by the NDFB included:
NDFB's attacks on security forces during year 2002 included:
NDFB’s activities were noticed in at least 10 districts of Assam with a major concentration in Kokrajhar and Darrang where at least 97 NDFB-related fatalities occurred, including 61 civilians. Besides these two districts, Dhubri, Barpeta, Bongaigaon and Nalbari were the districts where the NDFB was highly active. The NDFB did not respond positively to the State Government’s 30-day safe-passage offer to its cadres. The initiative, announced on January 1, 2002, was aimed to pave the way for possible negotiations. However, after the October 27, 2002, massacre of 22 civilians, NDFB 'chief' Ranjan Daimary alias D.R. Nabla said that the group might consider negotiations if the Union Government includes 'historical rights' and the 'right to self-determination' of Bodos in the agenda. This is still to translate into any concrete moves towards a peace process, and the NDFB’s position remains ambivalent on this point.
The other front ranking group in the State, the ULFA, was involved in 120 terrorism-related incidentsduring 2002.
Some of the top ULFA leaders killed during the year 2002 were:
Towards the end of the year, ULFA carried out mortar attacks in Guwahati and Dispur. The modus operandi in these attacks indicated a changed tactic adopted by the group.
Official sources have indicated that such mortars have not even been used against civilian targets by terrorists in Jammu & Kashmir although, unlike ULFA, groups in that State are known to carry out random strikes on civilians. A 60 mm mortar (or any mortar, for that matter) is an area weapon, not a specific target weapon, and is usually fired into enemy lines to inflict maximum casualties. The 60 mm mortar is designed to cause maximum fatality in an eight-yard radius, and unleashes high impact in a 'danger zone' of 200-yards radius. The mortars used in both the October 27 and the December 25 attacks were of Chinese make and, according to security agencies, are widely used by Pakistani Rangers and the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR). Official sources have also pointed out that ULFA is equipped with a "trained artillery squad" and that such mortars might have been procured via Bangladesh. It is well established that ULFA has several bases in Bangladesh, with many of its top leaders located there, and is close to both the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), Bangladesh's key intelligence agency.
With regard to negotiations, ULFA did not evince interest in any form of the peace process. Even civil society initiatives did not get any positive response from the group. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, on January 23, 2002 had said that his government was ready to vest responsibility of mediation with the ULFA to the Axom Xatra Mahaxabha (AXM), the apex body of some 700 Vaishnavite (followers of lord Vishnu) monasteries in the State. ULFA did not respond to this initiative.
The UPDS had agreed to 'cease hostilities' with the Union Government, on May 23, 2002. However, the group was responsible for the killing of six persons in the Karbi Anglong district just prior to this cessation of hostilities, when, on May 20, 2002, its cadres killed six members of a non-Assamese family, including a 26-day old child, after forcing them out of their house at Matikhola village, under the Kheroni police station limits, Karbi Anglong district. Overall, however, incidents of violence by the UPDS in year 2002 were much lower than the preceding year. Total UPDS-related casualties were 54 in 2001 that included 41 civilians and 2 SF personnel killed by the UPDS and 11 UPDS terrorists killed in various encounters. 26 DHD-related fatalities occurred during year 2002, including six DHD terrorists killed in various encounters, 10 SF personnel and 10 civilians.
The DHD, before announcing a ‘cease-fire’ on December 30, 2002, had carried out a few major attacks on SF personnel, and civilians:
Prior to the signing of the February 10, 2003-Bodo Accord, BLT was observing a cease-fire concluded in March 2000. Some violence, however, did occur involving the BLT. A total of eight BLT cadres were killed and all of them were killed in internecine clashes with the NDFB.
Besides these outfits, MULTA, an Islamist terrorist outfit, was also found active during the year 2002. While a MULTA terrorist was killed in an encounter in July 2002 in Nagaon district, approximately 25 MULTA cadres were arrested in separate incidents from various places in the State. Most of MULTA activities were confined to the Dhubri and Nagaon districts.
No group claimed responsibility for some terrorist attacks that occurred during religious festivals. Although the Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi districts had been declared ‘attack-prone’ during the Durga puja (a 10-day religious festival of Hindus) celebrations, attacks could not be prevented in Bongaigaon and Kokrajhar.
Even as counter-terrorism efforts continued in the State, the Government renewed offers of negotiations with different groups. While the BLT has signed an agreement, the UPDS and the DHD are currently observing a 'cease-fire'. Meanwhile, the State government decided not to implement the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) in the State. Announcing the decision, Chief Minister Gogoi said on March 27, 2002, "We have enough laws to handle insurgency and terrorism and we will use them to check terrorism, not POTA, never". The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958, which applies to the whole of Assam, and in a 20 kilometre-wide belt in Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Meghalaya along the borders was extended, for another six months with effect from November 11, 2002. There were also plans to raise more battalions of the Assam Rifles (AR). The Director General of AR, Lieutenant General G.K. Duggal stated, on November 13, 2002, that eight more battalions of the AR would be raised in the near future. To bolster public determination to fight terrorism, the State government gave away Umesh Rabha bravery award on May 20, 2002, in memory of a Border Security Force (BSF) personnel killed by the ULFA in 1999 for mobilising the local people against terrorists in and around the Tamulpur area of Nalbari district.
The role of civil society remained at an ebb. Some initiatives were, of course, made, but the two major organizations – the Axom Xahitya Xabha (AXX) and the All Assam Students Union (AASU) – which are largely seen as the institutions with strong organising capacities played no effective role in boosting the peace process in the State.