Ideally, of course, and with the advantage of hindsight, it is easy to say that Amritpal Singh should have been arrested at the earliest possible stage after his return to India in August 2022. His transgressions commenced almost immediately thereafter, even as his support base appeared to grow. Worse, both in political and administrative statements and in media projections, a larger-than-life image was being built up, far out of proportion with his actual significance. And while the state and its agencies must certainly be called to account for their failures, much of the irresponsible myth-making was the doing of the uncritical and sensation-seeking media – ‘Bhindranwale 2.0’, the purported return to the 1980s, incessant coverage of his obviously attention-seeking antics, and a series of fawning interviews, these and other exaggerations and distortions in reportage enormously inflated Amritpal Singh’s actions, providing him with the very platform he would otherwise have struggled to occupy.
These processes have not ended, and hysterical, sweeping reports, tying Amritpal Singh with gun-running, narcotics smuggling, drone intrusions from Pakistan, and almost every ill in Punjab continue, even as the manhunt to put him where he belongs – in jail – is ongoing. That there is, yet, little evidence to tie Amritpal Singh in with these many trends and offences, all of which have a history that long precedes his arrival on the stage, appears to elude the notice of the many anchors and commentators on the subject, and, consequently, the impression that this narrative is being orchestrated can hardly be avoided. These matters, moreover, are for the enforcement and intelligence agencies to deal with, and should not be the subject of ignorant and frenetic media speculation.
While there are many and clear failures on the part of both the state and central government agencies, it is important to recognize, first, that ideal solutions exist only in an ideal world. Second, and crucially, this entire issue is, above all, a contest of perceptions, not of power. It is a simple matter, in a violent conflict, for the state to stamp out an individual; but managing perceptions in a calibrated political campaign is a very different challenge.
It is important to recognize that, by intent or omission, the state has now established the upper hand in the narrative around Amritpal Singh. Before his return and usurpation of the Waris Punjab De banner – and this is another element that the commentary largely ignores; Deep Sidhu’s Waris Punjab De still exists and is headed by his long-time associate Sanjeev Uppal – Amritpal was an unknown quantity. The very rapid rise of his profile in Punjab and quick support that he received from conservative elements in the Sikh community, including the implicit support of the Shiromani Gurudwara Prabandhak Committee and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), as well as the open support of the radical SAD-Amritsar headed by Simranjit Singh Mann, made it difficult to predict the possible consequences of any action against him. Nevertheless, delay only allowed the myth around him to grow, making state action potentially even more costly.
Nevertheless, over the past months, Amritpal clearly overplayed his hand. Each of the most prominent among his actions will have alienated much of the population base that he seeks to mobilize. In particular, the fracas at Gurudwara Singh Sabha in Jalandhar on December 13, 2022, and the burning of chairs and benches meant for elderly devotees, may have secured some publicity, but would certainly have alienated the Sikh devout. That this is the case is substantially borne out by the commentary on the subject in the print, TV and social media. Thereafter, there was much adverse commentary over the issue of the abduction and assault on Varinder Singh, which led to the arrest of Amritpal’s associate, Lovepreet Singh aka Toofan, and subsequently to the Ajnala fiasco. Amritpal’s effort to project his personal animus against Varinder as a Sikh issue attracted significant criticism. Further, the siege on the Ajnala Police Station, and Amritpal’s visible efforts to shield himself behind the motorized Palki on which the Guru Granth Sahib was being carried, even while his associates broke through the Police barricades, have not gone unnoticed by the larger Sikh community. This was, at once, an act of beadbi (sacrilege) and cowardice. And finally, after all his brave declarations challenging the Police to arrest him, his abandonment of his supporters and flight in the face of actual arrest – as well as multiple social media clips demonstrating panic and desperation, both on his part and on part of his supporters – is likely to take a great deal of the sheen off his image.
The absence of any significant protests and demonstrations in the wake off the eventual action against Amritpal would tend to bear out his loss of credibility, though this has occurred under a massive police and internet clampdown. The coming days will confirm or negate these arguments.
What will be crucial, however, particularly for the state and the media to remember, is that the theatre that is currently playing out in Punjab is, overwhelmingly, a contest of perceptions, and it is far from over.
While the state and its agencies appear to dominate the present narrative, it remains to be seen how they will handle evolving themes. Amritpal is likely to be arrested in the near future, or may reappear abroad. In the latter case, he will merely join the minor ensemble of frustrated extremists in the Sikh Diaspora, to rant ineffectually against India. If, on the other hand, he is arrested, the state and the political leadership, will again be tested; and not just the Aam Aadmi Party, but also the various political groupings it has marginalized in the recent Assembly Elections. The Shiromani Akali Dal has already sought to communalise the Police action, condemning the supposed “undeclared emergency and reign of repression and terror”, and the targeting, especially, of ‘innocent Amritdhari youth’. While the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party currently support the Police action, it is uncertain when the default setting of polarizing politics will be restored. These, and not so much the Khalistanis, are the critical threats to peace and security in Punjab.
(Edited version published in The Indian Express, March 24, 2023)