Three explosions rocked Assam's principal city Guwahati's Birubari, Bhangagarh and Bhootnath localities on the first day of 2009, leaving five persons dead and more than 50 injured. The macabre beginning to the New Year was perfectly in tune with the trend of militant violence in the State in the latter part of 2008.
With at least 387 fatalities (provisional total), Assam in 2008 remained the second most violent theatre of conflict in India's Northeast, after its neighbour to the east, Manipur, which recorded at least 499 fatalities. Nevertheless, this represented a decline in fatalities in all categories, as compared to 2007. A decline of nearly 15 percent was recorded in the civilian category, whereas the decline among SFs was 25 percent. However, fatalities in the militant category remained comparable. Assam Police sources further indicate that 1,300 militants from various groups in the State were arrested in 2008, considerably weakening the militant outfits.
Year
Incidents
Civilians
SFs
Militants
Total
2005
398
173
7
74
254
2006
413
164
32
46
242
2007
500
286
24
129
439
2008
January-August*
September-December**
Provisional TOTAL
282
-
118
126
244
10
8
18
81
44
125
209
178
387
The data indicating an improvement in the security situation, however, flatters only to deceive. While a measure of normalcy did appear to have been imposed during the first eight months of 2008, militant violence rose sharply in the last four months, pushing most parts of Assam into chaos, uncertainty and fear. All 27 Districts of the State reported militant violence in 2008. While the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) continued to be the most dominant anti-state formation, the Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) and the Black Widow (BW) remained the principal peripheral groups. Intermittent activities by the All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), the Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA), the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA) and the Hmar People's Convention - Democracy (HPC-D) were also reported. Further, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), in spite of its May 2005 ceasefire, continued to be engaged in factional clashes with its arch rival, the cadres of the disbanded Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT).
At least 22 major incidents of terrorist violence, involving deaths of three or more persons, were reported from Assam in 2008. The most significant among these included:
October 30: 87 persons were killed and about 200 injured in nine near-simultaneous blasts in Assam's capital, Dispur, the adjoining Guwahati city and three other Districts - Kokrajhar, Barpeta, and Bongaigaon.
October 30: BW militants killed at least seven Police personnel at Langlai near Thujuari in the North Cachar (NC) Hills District. Three militants were also killed in the retaliatory firing. Haflong Police sources said that the BW militants opened fire on the Police party who were transporting the body of a Dima Halim Daogah (DHD) leader, Naklai Dimasa, who had been killed by BW militants on October 29, from Haflong Civil Hospital to Diyongmukh, after the post mortem.
October 25: Five ULFA militants and a soldier were killed during an encounter between a joint team of the Army and para-military Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel and militants at Mahina village in the Nalbari District.
September 26: Seven suspected Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) militants were killed in an encounter with the Army at Bashbari under Rupshi Development Block in the Dhubri District.
June 29: Seven persons were killed and 35 others, including two Policemen, were injured in an explosion at a crowded weekly market in the Kumarikata village of Nalbari District.
May 11: A group of around 10 armed BW militants shot dead eight labourers engaged in the construction of railway quarters at Thoibasti in the NC Hills District.
May 10: 12 BW militants were killed and 18 others injured in a gun battle with SFs in the NC Hills.
February 19: Five employees of a private cement factory, Vinay Cements, were killed while another was injured in an attack by BW militants about four kilometres from Umrangshu in the NC Hills.
February 11: Four persons, including an Assam Police Battalion soldier, were killed and another two were injured when BW militants ambushed a convoy of North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Ltd. officials, 20 kilometres from Umrangsu in the NC Hills District.
The October 30 serial explosions across four western Assam Districts were the biggest-ever militant strike in the State, which witnessed militancy since the early 1980s. Explosives packed into small cars, auto-rickshaws and planted on bicycles went off almost simultaneously, killing 87 persons and injuring over 200. The coordinated and well planned attacks, ULFA's claims that it was not involved in the bombings, as well as the subsequent claim made by the shadowy Indian Mujahideen, initially led analysts and politicians to draw parallels between this attack and the explosions that had taken place in other Indian cities. However, ULFA's involvement in the explosions in cooperation with elements from the NDFB and the Bangladesh based HuJI, was subsequently established by investigators. The specific linkages that underpinned the attacks are currently being investigated by the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI), the Union Government's premier investigative agency.
ULFA was immensely weakened in June 2008, when the Alfa and Charlie 'companies' of the group's Myanmar-based '28th battalion' (one of three surviving military formations) came over ground seeking a negotiated settlement to their grievances. The '28th battalion' was ULFA's primary strike force, and the desertion of two crucial companies was a major setback. Over a hundred surrendered cadres led by Mrinal Hazarika, Dibakar Moran, Prabal Neog and Jiten Dutta organised public meetings and addressed rallies, galvanising public opinion for a peaceful settlement of the decades-long conflict. Hopes were generated by both the pro-peace ULFA leaders and the SF establishment in Assam, who predicted imminent surrenders of many more ULFA cadres, threatening the outfit with near extinction. This even prompted the State Government to ask New Delhi to halt counter-insurgency operations by the Army and para-military forces, a request that did not find favour in North Block. However, neither the Bravo 'company', the sole remaining formation of the '28th battalion', nor the two other surviving battalions ['27th battalion', active in the hilly southern District of Karbi Anglong and the '709th battalion', active in western Assam Districts] followed the example set by Mrinal Hazarika and his command. ULFA evidently managed to survive the setback.
The disintegration of the '28th battalion', mostly responsible for the ULFA's activities in the eastern-most Districts (known as Upper Assam Districts), resulted in a thaw in militant activities in Districts of Tinsukia, Sivasagar and Nagaon. At the same time, the central and lower Assam Districts emerged as the outfit's primary battleground once again. The December 2003 military offensive by the Bhutanese Army had decimated the '709th battalion' based in that country. It was this battalion that was primarily responsible for the hit and run attacks in Districts such as Nalbari and Kamrup (in which capital Dispur and Guwahati are situated). As a result, for at least three successive years (2004-06), ULFA's capacities to carry out sustained attacks in these areas had been severely dented. Over the succeeding two years (2007-08), however, the outfit has managed to revive the '709th battalion'. The 'battalion' is presently headquartered in Bangladesh, under the direct supervision of the ULFA 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah. Senior leaders like Hira Sarania and Akash Thapa are in command of the 'battalion' and presently carry out attacks under direct instructions from the ULFA top leadership.
Similarly, recent intelligence inputs indicate that the Bravo 'company' of the '28th battalion' is attempting to find a foothold in the Dibrugarh and Sivasagar Districts. Consisting of hardcore cadres such as Gojen Konwar alias Samudra Nirmaliya, Tikira Changmai, Bhola Rongsual, Niren Sarmah and Upen Dehingia, this ULFA military formation is trying to revive activities in these Districts.
In the aftermath of the October 30 serial explosions, a massive revamp was initiated within the NDFB, which had been observing a ceasefire agreement since May 2005. Following the agreement, the outfit's cadres had come overground and were settled in three designated camps set up by the Assam Government in the western Assam Districts. However, NDFB chief Ranjan Daimary continued to stay put in his hideout in Bangladesh and, except for issuing occasional statements reaffirming the group's goal of a 'sovereign Bodoland', did nothing to initiate a process of dialogue with the Government. The sense of unease over the lack of progress in the peace talks, as a result, led to a divide between Daimary and the Assam-based senior and middle rung leaders who had come overground following the ceasefire declaration. On December 15, accusing Daimary of involvement in the October 30 serial explosions, the Assam-based leadership expelled him from the NDFB and elected Vice-President B. Sungthagra alias Dhiren Boro as the new 'president'. The 'general body meeting' held in the Serfanguri designated camp in Kokrajhar District also elected a full set of office bearers. The new 'president', who had been released from prison only in the earlier part of the year, after his arrest in Gangtok, the capital of Sikkim in January 2003, not only promised to carry the peace process forward, but also hinted at participating "directly or indirectly" in parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held in April-May 2009. His subsequent threats and imprecations against the new leadership of NDFB notwithstanding, Ranjan Daimary today is a very lonely man in Dhaka.
The developments within the NDFB are expected to introduce some sanity in the Bodo heartland. The new leadership is expected to rein in wayward cadres of the outfit who have not only engaged in intermittent clashes with erstwhile BLT cadres and in extortion activities, but also, on occasions, have served as mercenaries for the ULFA.
Incidentally, the NDFB was also accused by the Assam Government of fuelling the week-long riots between Bodos and immigrant Muslim settlers in Assam's three Districts (Udalguri, Darrang and Baska). Violence between the two communities, beginning October 3, 2008, had led to the death of over 50 persons and displaced over 150,000 people from their villages to relief camps. Competition over livelihood and shrinking land resources is fuelling hostility among the tribes and other communities in Assam. The difference is often more pronounced in the Bodo Territorial Council (BTC) area, where the Bodos live under constant apprehension of losing their majority status. In addition, local politics involving the erstwhile BLT, rechristened as the Bodo Political Party (BPP), which is a ruling alliance partner with the Congress Party, and the NDFB is adding to the complexities of peace making between divided communities in the Bodo heartland. The January 15, 2009, deadline set by the State Government for the return of all riot-affected people living in the relief camps to their villages has since passed. Over 50,000 people, mostly Muslims, continue to be lodged in the relief camps.
Away from the hotbed of ULFA-led violence and also removed from the epicentre of counter-insurgency operations, the peripheral insurgencies, primarily led by the KLNLF and the BW, continued to thrive in the hilly southern Districts of Assam throughout 2008. The KLNLF, purportedly fighting for the rights of the Karbi people, accounted for at least nine civilian casualties in the Karbi Anglong and neighbouring Nagaon Districts. On November 3, three Hindi-speaking non-tribal civilians were killed by the KLNLF militants at Bamuni Sukanjuri village in the Nagaon District. Further on December 1, at least three persons, including a child, were killed and 30 others injured, in a bomb blast triggered by the KLNLF in a passenger train at Diphu Railway Station in the Karbi Anglong District. The outfit, however, suffered reverses not just in terms of the surrender of 34 cadres and the arrest of another five, but also the September 25, 2008 emergence of the United Karbi National Liberation Forum (UKNLF), a new outfit that challenged the KLNLF monopoly in the Karbi Anglong District. On December 30, the KLNLF declared a two-month long ceasefire starting January 1, 2009, primarily directed at putting a halt to counter-insurgency operations against the outfit launched in the later part of the year.
The BW, operating in the hilly southern District of NC Hills since its formation in 2003, has grown in lethality. Its estimated 100 cadres have access to sophisticated weapons, courtesy the Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) with which the outfit shares cordial strategic linkages. Many BW cadres have found shelter in NSCN-K camps in the Peren District in Nagaland. The BW has also invested in putting together a team of IED experts. The hilly terrain of the NC Hills District provides excellent cover to BW cadres. The outfit remains the most potent peripheral outfit in Assam, accounting for 40 civilian and 11 SF deaths in 2008. On October 30, the day the ULFA orchestrated serial blasts rocking four Assam Districts, seven Assam Police personnel were killed in an ambush by BW cadres, who opened fire on a Police party, which was carrying the dead body of a BW leader killed on the previous day. Earlier, on May 11, a group of around 10 armed BW militants shot dead eight labourers engaged in the construction of Railway quarters at Thoibasti in the NC Hills District. Intermittent SF operations in the District imposed minimal costs on the outfit, which suffered just 17 fatalities throughout the year, including the loss of 12 cadres on May 10. Only five cadres of the outfit including 'deputy commander-in-chief' Franky Dimasa, were arrested. Two days after Franky Dimasa's arrest in Guwahati on March 22, BW declared a unilateral ceasefire. The State and Union Governments decided not to reciprocate on the grounds that the declaration did not lead to a cessation of violence by the outfit in subsequent months.
The AANLA, purportedly fighting for the rights of the plantation workers whose ancestors were brought to Assam from northern India by British colonialists, saw its capacities significantly dented by SF operations in 2008. The group had secured prominence by inciting clashes in Guwahati and capital Dispur in November 2007, and subsequently carrying out the December 13, 2007, explosion in the Rajdhani Express, killing five people. Through 2008, at least 27 AANLA cadres were arrested, including the outfit's 'commander-in-chief' Nirmal alias David Tirki, who was arrested from Jharkhand on December 7. In addition, over 20 AANLA cadres surrendered to the authorities. On December 24, AANLA cadres did manage to carry out a minor explosion on the rail tracks near Bokajan in Karbi Anglong District, five minutes after the Rajdhani Express crossed a nearby station. However, the neutralisation of over half of the outfit's cadre strength in 2008 alone inflicted a serious setback on the group.
Islamist militancy in Assam is principally linked to illegal migration from Bangladesh and is located in concentrations of migrant populations, mostly in Dhubri, Nagaon and Goalpara Districts. Of these, Dhubri and Goalpara have been the traditional entry points for migrants from Bangladesh. The Assam Police, on the other hand, has played down the threat of Islamist militancy in the State. In a statement on April 1, 2008, the Assam Government stated in the Legislative Assembly that 234 Islamist militants, including 150 MULTA cadres and 50 Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) cadres were currently lodged in different jails in the State. Through 2008, at least 17 MULTA cadres were arrested from the lower and central Assam Districts of Dhubri, Darrang, Nagaon, Kokrajhar, Sonitpur and Kamrup. Islamist groups did not carry out any act of violence in 2008. MULTA's activities remained confined to acting as a subsidiary to the ULFA.
Similarly, the Bangladesh-based HuJI, which has not participated in any terrorist act in Assam, received twin setbacks in the State. On September 26, seven suspected HuJI militants were killed in an encounter with the Army at Bashbari under the Rupshi Development Block in Dhubri District. Six revolvers, three grenades, two Gelatin sticks, six detonators, about two kilograms of explosives, some Bangladeshi currency, a Bangladeshi mobile SIM card and addresses of some hotels in Bangladesh were recovered from the possession of the slain militants. On October 16, another two suspected HuJI militants were shot dead by Army personnel during an encounter at Krishnai in the Goalpara District, and some arms, grenades and explosives recovered from them. SF successes against Islamist militancy also included the killing, on February 11, of three militants belonging to an unspecified group with suspected links to the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan's external intelligence agency, at Binajuli village under Agia Police outpost in the Goalpara District.
Following the succession of terrorist strikes, especially after the October 30 serial explosions, the Assam Government declared a "zero tolerance" policy towards militancy in the State. On December 3, 2008, it replaced its Police Chief R.N. Mathur with G.M. Srivastava, who is credited with executing a highly successful counter-insurgency campaign in neighbouring Tripura. On January 10, 2009, the Assam Legislative Assembly passed the Assam Preventive Detention (Amendment) Act, 2009, raising the maximum period of preventive detention of terrorist suspects from six months to two years. The security establishment in the State has also been beefed up with 22 additional CRPF companies, taking the over all presence of central Forces in the State to 142 companies. A 'comprehensive security plan' for State capital Dispur and conjoined Guwahati, the targets of at least 610 bomb blasts since 2002, has also been put in place. Guwahati has been brought under the Unified Command Structure, the body that has coordinated operations of the Army, para-military and Police forces in the State since 1997. SFs have since conducted several search and clear operations in Dispur-Guwahati and arrested at least ten ULFA cadres, besides killing three, including a hit man of the outfit's '709th battalion', Pranjal Deka.
Assam's counter-terrorism strategy still relies disproportionately on central forces, and the Assam Police suffers significant infirmities. The police population ratio of 176/100,000, though better than the all India average of 125, is the lowest in the entire Northeast. Media reports indicate, moreover, that out of a sanctioned strength of 56,740, the Assam Police has a vacancy of 8,511 personnel. The Assam Government proposes to raise the strength of the Police force by 50 percent in a phased manner over the next five years, but given the State's financial constraints, the implementation of such an ambitious plan may be difficult.
The Awami League's (AL) victory in Bangladesh in the December 29, 2008, parliamentary elections has stirred a measure of optimism over the possibility of concerted action against insurgent safe havens in that country, but it remains to be seen whether the Sheikh Hasina Wajed Government will actually have the capacities - or, indeed, even the will - to act forcefully against the various militant groups operating from Bangladeshi soil in India's Northeast. Absent such action, counter-insurgency in Assam promises to be an uphill task through 2009.