South Asia Terrorism Portal
Snakes in the Backyard Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On September 15, 2021, seven Army soldiers and five terrorists were killed during an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Asman Manza area of South Waziristan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), in a statement, disclosed that the operation was launched on intelligence about the presence of terrorists in the area.
On September 9, 2021, two Frontier Corps (FC) personnel were killed and another sustained injuries, after their convoy was fired upon by unidentified militants in the Buleda area of Turbat in Balochistan.
On September 7, 2021, two Army soldiers were killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in the Dosalli area of North Waziristan District in KP. An ISPR statement indicated that the Security Forces (SFs) were conducting a ‘clearance operation’ in the Dosalli area, when the IED exploded.
On September 5, 2021, four FC personnel were killed and another 20 sustained injuries in a suicide attack near an FC checkpost on Mastung Road in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. A suicide bomber on a motorcycle packed with six kilogrammes of explosives rammed one of the vehicles in an FC convoy. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack.
Since the Taliban’s return to power in neighbouring Afghanistan on August 15, there has been a surge in attacks on SFs in the bordering provinces of Pakistan. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 25 SF personnel have been killed in 10 incidents of militant attacks on SFs in Pakistan, in the 35 days between August 16 and September 19. In the preceding 35 days, there were 18 fatalities. On an average 0.51 SF personnel were killed each day during 2021 before the Afghan Taliban assumed power on August 15. The average has since increased to 0.71.
Of the 10 attacks since August 16, TTP has claimed only one incident, while the remaining nine have remained unclaimed or unattributable. It is, however, widely believed that most of these attacks are the handiwork of TTP, which is the major terrorist formation operating in these regions.
With the coming of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, the Pakistan establishment was hopeful that they would control TTP cadres who, according to Pakistan, were operating out of the bordering areas of Afghanistan. An August 23 report, quoting unnamed senior Pakistani officials, asserted that Pakistan had handed over a list of “most wanted terrorists” affiliated with the TTP operating from the Afghanistan, to the Afghan Taliban. Besides, reports claimed that the Afghan Taliban chief Haibatullah Akhundzada has set up a three-member commission to investigate Islamabad’s complaints that TTP was using Afghanistan to plot cross-border terrorist attacks. Pakistan is also hoping that the Afghan Taliban administration's announcement that they would not allow any terrorist groups to use their soil against any country would help it in dealing with the TTP.
However, both the Afghan Taliban and TTP are two sides of the same coin, and Islamabad's hopes may prove unrealistic. On August 28, Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated that the issue of the TTP was one that the Pakistan Government must resolve itself:
Indeed, as the Afghan Taliban started making rapid gains inside Afghanistan, the TTP was increasingly emboldened. In an interview with CNN on July 26, 2021, TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud asserted that his group had a good relationship with the Afghan Taliban and hoped to benefit from the latter’s victories across the border. He further warned that TTP would continue its “war against Pakistan’s security forces” and declared that the outfit’s goal was to “take control of the border regions and make them independent.” This is the first time that TTP’s leadership has called for an independent state in Pakistan’s tribal areas.
Both the Afghan Taliban and TTP are principally Pashtun, and with the rest of the Pashtuns, are against the existence of any physical boundary along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, which create barriers between families and relatives living on both sides of the border. Not surprisingly, the Afghan Taliban objected to the fencing of the Durand Line by Pakistan. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid declared, on August 30, 2021,
Afghanistan has long objected to Pakistan's unilateral decision of fencing the border and to formalize its century-old claims over the Durand Line.
On September 2, 2021, Deputy Inspector General (DIG) Frontier Corps (FC), North KP, Sajid Majeed declared that 98 per cent of the fencing work, which started in May 2017, had been completed and claimed that the remaining two per cent would be completed ‘soon.’ Once this was done, the 2,600 kilometres border with Afghanistan will be ‘fully secured.’
The United Nation (UN) Monitoring Team report submitted to the UN Security Council on June 1, 2021, draws attention to the increasing cross-border terrorist threat to Pakistan from TTP operating from Afghan soil. The report reiterates findings of earlier UN reports that had pointed out similar cross-border terrorist threats posed by the TTP, owing to its re-unification and strengthening in Afghanistan. The UN team noted that “a reunification took place in Afghanistan between TTP and certain splinter groups in the period from December 2019 to August 2020.” Al-Qaeda was reportedly involved in the mediation between the groups. The reunification of splinter groups with TTP increased its strength, “of which current estimates range between 2,500 and 6,000 armed fighters,” the report added, noting that “the upper range is more accurate.” UN monitors note that TTP “has distinctive anti-Pakistan objectives but also supports the Afghan Taliban militarily inside Afghanistan”.
On August 27, Director General (DG) ISPR, Major General Babar Iftikhar, conceded, "something can happen." On September 15, Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs Shah Mahmood Qureshi admitted that Pakistan was concerned about reports of TTP figures being released from prisons in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan: "If those guys come and start creating problems for us over here, it will affect innocent lives and we don't want that."
Pakistan has started taking some measures to thwart the imminent threat. The Pakistan Government has already militarised the border. On July 24, Federal Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed declared that Pakistan had moved the Frontier Constabulary, Levies Force and other militias from front-line positions along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, as the Army had started to man those positions. Rashid Ahmed added that, FC Balochistan and other militias working under the Interior Ministry had been called back from border patrolling: “Paramilitary troops including the Frontier Constabulary, Levies, Rangers are deployed at the borders to deal with regular issues including illegal border crossing, smuggling etc… However, the current volatile situation (in Afghanistan) demands that regular military troops be deployed along the border.”
Islamabad is also making efforts to buy peace. On September 15, Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs Shah Mahmood Qureshi stated that, "if [the TTP] are willing to mend fences and not take the law into their hands and not get involved in terrorist activities and they submit and surrender to the writ of the Government and the Constitution of Pakistan, we are even open to giving them a pardon." Qureshi termed as "positive" the Afghan Taliban administration's announcement that they would not allow any terrorist groups to use their soil against any country, including Pakistan. He emphasised that Pakistan had been "continuously" pointing out TTP sanctuaries to the earlier Ashraf Ghani Government, "but they wouldn't move." It remains to be seen whether the Afghan Taliban acts on its assurances, Qureshi added.
On September 10, Pakistan President Arif Alvi admitted that "TTP [remains] a threat," but suggested that the Pakistani Government could consider giving an amnesty to those members of the TTP who have not remained involved in "criminal activities" and who would lay down their weapons and agree to adhere to the Pakistani Constitution.
Though Pakistan is hopeful that the Afghan Talban will co-operate to control TTP cadres operating out of Afghan territory, this is highly unlikely, given the close relationship between the two outfits. In such a scenario, the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is likely to see more violence in days to come.
Chhattisgarh: Dantewada: Coming Home Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On September 6, 2021, five Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, two of them carrying a total bounty of INR 200,000 on their heads, surrendered to Security Forces (SFs) in Dantewada District. The surrendered Maoists, identified as Nahum aka Pojja Sodi (25), Masa Sodi (26), Sukaru Ram aka Dogal Kadti (21), Rakesh Madkam (18) and Bhupendra Sodi (19), were active in the Gangaloor and Bhairamgarh Area Committees of the CPI-Maoist. Nahum, a Dandakaranya Adivasi Kisan Mazdoor Sangathan (DAKMS, a Maoist front), ‘president’; and Masa, a ‘militia commander’, carried a cash reward of INR 100,000 each on their heads.
On August 30, 2021, two CPI-Maoist cadres active in the Amdai ‘area committee’ of the CPI-Maoist surrendered to Police in Dantewada District. Pradeep Kadti and Ramji Kashyap, both aged 20, were members of the ‘Todma Militia Platoon’, and they carried a bounty of INR 10,000 each on their heads. The duo was involved in various incidents in 2021, including the killing of a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) trooper on March 4, 2021, in the Pahurnar area in Dantewada District.
On August 26, 2021, four CPI-Maoist cadres, carrying a collective reward of INR 600,000 on their heads, surrendered to SFs in Dantewada District. The surrendered Maoists, identified as Budhra Sodi aka Sodi Bhaskar (32), woman Maoist, Manki Alami (24), Sunder Padami (30) and Boti Mandavi (30), were active in the CPI-Maoist Katekalyan and Amdai ‘area committees.’ Sodi was the Katekalyan ‘area committee member’/ ’militia commander-in-chief’, carrying a bounty of INR 500,000 on his head, and was involved in 14 incidents of Naxal [Left Wing extremism, LWE] violence between 2012 to 2020, including Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) explosions in which a total of 19 Security Force (SF) personnel were killed, the murder of two village Sarpanchs (head of the Panchayat, village level local self-government institution), a Panchayat member, a ‘militia commander’ and two villagers on suspicion that they were ‘Police informers’. Alami was ‘president’ of the Chetna Natya Madali (CNM), the CPI-Maoist cultural wing, and carried a reward of INR 100,000 on her head. Both Sunder and Boti were lower-rung cadres.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 153 Maoists have surrendered in Dantewada District in the current year, thus far (data till September 19, 2021). During the corresponding period of 2020, 105 Maoists had surrendered in the District. Another, 91 surrendered in the remaining part of the year, taking the total number of surrendered Maoists to 196 through 2020. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE in India, at least 560 Naxalites have surrendered in Dantewada.
This is a significant underestimate, as Police claim that 400 LWEs have surrendered since June 2020. Dantewada, Superintendent of Police (SP), Abhishek Pallava, thus disclosed on August 12, 2021,
On June 12, 2020, the District Police, launched its surrender and rehabilitation drive "Lon Varratu" (a local Gondi dialect expression, meaning ‘return to your home/village’).
To make the drive successful and to ensure that more and more rebels quit violence, Chhattisgarh Police, with the help of some surrendered Naxals, started developing a township exclusively for surrendered Naxalites, where they will be provided accommodation for their safety as well as skill training to lead a better life in Dantewada District. SP Pallava thus disclosed on August 12, 2021, “For the first time, such a kind of township is being built for surrendered Naxals in the country. We plan to inaugurate it on January 26 next year [2022].” The township, being developed on 39 acres in front of the Police Lines in Dantewada, will have 108 one BHK (bedroom-hall-kitchen) apartments, apart from a recreational centre, yoga centres-cum-gym, a primary school, primary health centre, transit hostel and Anganwadi. The township is being built from the special assistance fund given by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) and INR 25 million has been sanctioned as a first instalment, to enable construction in 21 acres of area, in the first phase. The total cost of the project would be around INR 90 million.
Under the initiative, the surrendered cadres belonging to ‘red coded’ villages will be provided housing facilities in the township. Once their villages get rid of the ‘red code’ and are categorised as ‘yellow’ or ‘green’, and the situation becomes conducive for them to live there, they will be allowed to go back. According to SP Pallava, the Maoists were found to be active in as many as 75 villages in the District: of these, 45 fell in the ‘Yellow zone’ (sensitive) and 33 in the ‘Red zone’ (hypersensitive). The District has a total of 239 villages.
Moreover, upon realising that only 32 of the 400 surrendered Naxalites since June 12, 2020, have Aadhaar cards and bank accounts to avail benefit of Government facilities, the State Government started the ‘Lon Varratu Abhiyan-2’ under which Aadhaar cards have been issued to 250 Naxalites.
Meanwhile, an August 15, 2021, report revealed that 15 villages in Dantewada District had been declared free from the influence of the Maoists. Significantly, the Dantewada Police, in collaboration with the District administration, carried out a door-to-door survey and found that 15 villages that were once known to be Maoist strongholds reported ‘zero’ Naxalite activity in the preceding year or so.
In another positive development, the Tricolour was unfurled at Masapara school in Dantewada on August 15, 2021 (India’s Independence Day), after a long hiatus of seven years. The school was demolished by the Naxalites in 2014, and has now been rebuilt by the surrendered cadres. Remarkably, the former Naxalites who once opposed Independence Day celebrations and raised black flags in protest, themselves hoisted the Tricolour at the school premises. Moreover, on the special occasion, the former cadres appealed to the Maoists to surrender and join the mainstream.
Further, on the occasion of Raksha Bandhan (Hindu festival dedicated to brothers and sisters) on August 22, 2021, several surrendered Maoists, many of them carrying cash rewards on their heads, got rakhis (sacred threads) tied on their wrists by their sisters. Speaking on the occasion, SP Pallava, stated,
Dantewada falls within the troubled ‘Bastar Division’ of Chhattisgarh, and shares borders with Bijapur, Sukma, Bastar, and Narayanpur Districts – all of which are listed among the ‘25 Most Affected (LWE) Districts’ in eight States of the country. The District has been the epicenter of LWE-linked violence in Chhattisgarh. Seven Districts in Chhattisgarh (Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon and Sukma) are listed in the ‘25 Most Affected Districts’. Further, Dantewada, along with 13 Districts [Balrampur, Bastar, Bijapur, Dhamtari, Gariabandh, Kanker, Kondagaon, Mahasamund, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, Sukma, Kabirdham and Mungeli] in Chhattisgarh, are covered under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, to fund focused operations against LWEs.
Dantewada has recorded 1,164 fatalities (344 civilians, 411 SF personnel, 403 LWEs, and six Unspecified) in LWE-linked violence, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on such violence. Dantewada is the worst LWE-affected District in terms of overall fatalities in Chhattisgarh, followed by Bijapur (802 fatalities) and Sukma (494). At its peak, the District recorded 273 fatalities (155 civilians, 45 SF personnel, 73 LWEs) in 2006. In the current year 16 fatalities (three civilians, one SF trooper, 12 LWEs) had been recorded, so far (data till September 19, 2021).
The surrender and rehabilitation drive "Lon Varratu" is encouraging Maoists to return home in Dantewada. Sustained SF pressure, combined with aggressive developmental initiatives, particularly in infrastructure and communications, will be necessary to bring Maoist violence in Dantewada in particular, and the State at large, to an end.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia September 13-19, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Total
Afghanistan
India
Assam
Jammu and Kashmir
Total (India)
PAKISTAN
KP
Total (Pakistan)
Total (South Asia)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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