South Asia Terrorism Portal
Terror Speaks Saji Cherian Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management On November 27 each year, the cadres of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) as well as the whole of Sri Lanka listens with bated breath as the country's most wanted terrorist, Vellupillai Prabhakaran, delivers his annual 'Mahaveerar Thinam' (Heroes Day) speech. Each year the 'leader' spells out the broad policy to be followed by the rebel group, based on the prevailing political and military equations in the island nation. Since the Ceasefire Agreement signed by the Sri Lankan Government and the LTTE in February 2002, Prabhakaran has now delivered three Heroes Day speeches. In 2002, he declared that he would consider 'favourably' a political framework that offers substantial regional autonomy and self-government to the Tamil people on the basis of their right to internal self-determination. The following year, he rejected President Chandrika Kumaratunga's accusations that his organisation was strengthening its military power and preparing for war. This year, the portents are more ominous, as Prabhakaran pointed to the "division, discord, confusion and contradiction within the Sinhala political leadership on the Tamil issue," and sounded the warning that "if the government rejects our urgent appeal, adopts delaying tactics perpetuating the suffering of our people, we have no alternative other than to advance the freedom struggle of our nation." The threat implicit in the statement goes well beyond the necessary rhetoric of a Heroes Day address. Prabhakaran is, of course, quite right about the 'confusion' within the Sinhalese leadership with regard to the LTTE and the peace process. President Kumaratunga, for instance, in an interview to The Hindu, on November 14, asserted that the LTTE had not given up on its plans to assassinate her. Referring to Prabhakaran she said that "he is still thinking of getting me, while holding talks with us." At the same time, however, she added that the "LTTE had changed a lot", and "they are willing to explore some solution other than (an independent Tamil) Eelam." Conversely, such 'confusion' is altogether absent in the rebel group's orientation. In October 2004, Anton Balasingham, LTTE 'ideologue' and chief negotiator, pointed out that the Tamil Tigers had not abandoned their 'right to secede', despite agreeing to explore a 'federal solution'. Further, Kumaratunga and other Sri Lankan leaders have, on various occasions, alternately praised the Norwegian mediators and accused them of siding with the LTTE and overlooking rebel ceasefire violations. The LTTE, on the other hand, has at no time derided the Norwegians, but has very clear notions of what the limits of the facilitators' and the donors' jurisdictions are. On November 3, Balasingham, stated that "the donor conferences held in Oslo on 25 November 2002 and in Tokyo on 10 June 2003 and the resolutions adopted at these meetings cannot bind our liberation organisation to a particular framework of a final political settlement." With the negotiations between the two sides currently hitting rock bottom, the Government has realised that, in spite of the ceasefire agreement, the chances of war are mounting. The recent endeavour to acquire support from India through the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) is essentially a response to these apprehensions. On the contrary, for the LTTE, achieving peace has never been the ultimate goal and, consequently, it has never abandoned its policy of recruitment, assassination, fundraising and military build-up. In January 2004, President Kumaratunga had alleged, on the basis of intelligence reports, that the LTTE had increased its military strength during the truce period by recruiting over 11,000 cadres. "The LTTE has increased its cadre by three times from around seven thousand to over 18,000. Quite a few of them are small children and forcible recruitment was going on," she said. Adding substance to this statement the New York-based Human Rights Watch, in its report in November, accused the LTTE of continuing to enlist boys and girls below the age of 18 years, since the Oslo-brokered truce went into effect. "The ceasefire has brought an end to the fighting but not to the Tamil Tigers' use of children as soldiers," said Jo Becker, Children's Rights Advocacy Director for Human Rights Watch and a co-author of the report. The report, 'Living in Fear: Child Soldiers and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka,' included firsthand testimonies from dozens of children from north-eastern Sri Lanka who had been recruited since the cease-fire came into effect. Children described rigorous and sometimes brutal military training, including training with heavy weapons, bombs and landmines. The LTTE used intimidation and threats to pressure Tamil families in the island's North and the East to provide sons and daughters for military service, the report said. When families refused, their children were sometimes abducted from their homes at night or forcibly recruited while walking to school. Parents who resisted recruitment faced violence or detention. A spokesperson of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) said on October 9, that the LTTE has recruited 1,424 children, out of whom 45 had been abducted during the 28-months of truce ending August 31, while 359 adults were abducted during the same period. Also from a total of 4,903 complaints against the LTTE and 961 against the Government, 2,439 violations against the LTTE and 111 against the Government of Sri Lanka had been confirmed on the record, the SLMM spokesperson added. Significantly, Prabhakaran did not mention the 'Colonel' Karuna rebellion in his speech, a deliberate ploy to undermine an event that shook the LTTE apparatus in March 2004 and threatened to split the outfit into two. Clearly, Prabhakaran did not want to divert the attention and focus of his Tamil listeners from the aim of 'Tamil Eelam', to an embarrassment which threatened the unity of the group. Moreover, with an annihilation campaign targeting the Karuna's rebel cadres underway in the north and the east, Prabhakaran considers the rebellion to have been 'dealt with'. The systematic and open character of the annihilation campaign can be gauged by the fact that, on October 31, the 'Batticaloa-Amparai Political Office' of the LTTE issued leaflets with photographs of known Karuna cadres, asking district residents to identify and provide information that could lead to their elimination. Apart from targeting the Karuna cadres, the LTTE has also targeted every dissenting Tamil political voice. As in the past, the LTTE has continued to assassinate a number of senior Tamil political leaders and their party workers in the Northern and Eastern part of the country, especially belonging to the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP), throughout the period of the ceasefire. Significantly, annual fatalities have been rising continuously since the ceasefire, with a total of 15 persons killed in 2002; 59 in 2003; and 106 in 2004 (till November 28). At no point of time through the ceasefire has the LTTE let its guard down and Prabhakaran's war machine has never been dormant, particularly its finance and military departments. Since June 2004, there have been reports indicating that the LTTE has started a special campaign to raise money in Europe and North America, saying they are sick and tired of the peace process. The Tamil diaspora in these countries, especially Canada, France and England, have been approached by LTTE functionaries, requesting them to donate for the cause. The LTTE has been very successful throughout the ceasefire in projecting two images, one for the international audience and another for its adherents. As an intelligence source notes, "the LTTE always speaks in two voices - one for the international community, preferably in English, and another for the Tamils living under its control, invariably in Tamil." The Sri Lankan Army has also been alarmed by the LTTE military build-up, particularly around the Trincomalee harbour, and has been crying itself hoarse. A complaint was lodged with the SLMM, but the truce monitors have indicated that all the LTTE installations visited were located well within LTTE-controlled areas, and that they had found no indication of a LTTE military build-up around the harbour. However, on October 30, the SLMM's report was falsified, when the Sri Lankan Navy destroyed a LTTE camp in the Palampatar Santhiri jungles in Trincomalee, and a LTTE flag, two hand grenades, a VHF signalling antenna, a 30 metre antenna cable, notebooks with personal details and some weapons were recovered. The LTTE and its 'chief' Prabhakaran are evidently not 'confused' as to where the peace process is headed: "Whatever the real reason, we can clearly and confidently say one thing; it is apparent from the inconsistent and contradictory statements made by President Kumaratunga that her Government is not going to offer the Tamil people either an interim administration or a permanent solution…..we cannot continue to be entrapped in a political vacuum without an interim solution or a permanent settlement, without a stable peace and without peace of mind." The LTTE has systematically exploited this 'political vacuum' to stabilise and empower itself, both domestically and internationally, a reality that cannot be overlooked by the Sinhalese leadership, which would find itself on a relatively weaker footing, were war to break out again.
BANGLADESH
INDIA
Assam
Jammu & Kashmir
Manipur
Nagaland
Tripura
Total (INDIA)
NEPAL
PAKISTAN
SRI LANKA
India rules out Pakistan's proposal to redraw borders in Jammu and Kashmir: Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, on November 24, stated that India has conveyed to Pakistan its willingness to "look at various options based on ground realities" to resolve the Kashmir issue, but ruled out redrawing of the country's borders. The two neighbours, however, agreed to launch the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service "as early as possible" and take their composite dialogue process forward. At his maiden meeting with Pakistan Premier Shaukat Aziz, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reassured him about India's commitment to resolve all outstanding issues with Islamabad, including Jammu and Kashmir, in a serious and sustained manner, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran added. The Hindu, November 25, 2004
Government's peace talks offer is a 'conspiracy', says CPN-M 'Chairman' Prachanda: In a statement issued on November 27, Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN -M) 'Chairman', Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda, rejected the peace talks offered by the Government and said that the government's move looked something like a 'conspiracy'. He also alleged that the government had not yet created a favourable atmosphere for peace talks and setting deadline had further diminished the prospects of talks. However, Prachanda reiterated that his party was ready for peace talks with credible international mediation. Nepal News, November 28, 2004 Prime Minister Deuba issues deadline to Maoists for peace talks: On November 25, issuing a statement, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba asked the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPN -M) to agree for peace talks before January 13, 2005. The announcement came following a meeting of the Council of Ministers that endorsed the recommendation of the High-level Peace Committee (HPC). "The Government is eager to find a political way out through dialogues, but if the Maoists don't pay heed to our repeated calls for talks, the Government will move ahead with the election process," Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said in a press meet organized at Singhadurbar. Nepal News, November 26, 2004
Lt-Gen Safdar Hussain announces withdrawal of troops from Wana: Corps Commander Lt-General Safdar Hussain while speaking at a jirga of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe at Governor House in Peshawar on November 26, announced the withdrawal of troops and removal of check posts from all parts of the Wana subdivision of the South Waziristan tribal region. According to an official handout, Governor Syed Iftikhar Hussain Shah, Inspector General of the Frontier Corps (FC), Tariq Masood, and senior officials were present on the occasion, along with about 400 elders and maliks and three militants, Maulvi Abbas, Maulvi Javed and Maulvi Abdul Aziz, who recently accepted a Government amnesty. "Peace has been restored in Wana and now the military will not use force in any part of the area," Safdar Hussein declared. Dawn, The News, November 27, 2004 20 militants killed in South Waziristan: An Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement issued on November 22 said that troops have killed 20 militants in raids on a seminary and a camp in South Waziristan as part of ongoing operations against Al Qaeda-linked fighters. Eight people were killed at the seminary in Lalejai area, a military spokesman said in the statement. "In the Lalejai area, Maulvi Bashir's Madrassah (seminary) had been serving as a hub of terrorist activities from where miscreants had been launching frequent attacks against security forces and the civil population." Also, 12 terrorists were killed in a 'hand-to-hand' fight with security forces in Karam-Manzai Chund Khel area, where terrorists had made the local population hostage, the statement added. The News, Dawn, November 23, 2004
LTTE will launch freedom struggle if peace talks are further delayed, says Vellupillai Prabhakaran: The 'Leader' of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), Velupillai Prabhakaran, in a statement issued on the occasion of Heroes' Day on November 27, made an urgent appeal to the Government to resume peace negotiations based on the Interim Self Government Authority (ISGA) proposals. It warned the Government it would be compelled to advance the freedom struggle of their people, if the Government delayed negotiations. Referring to the ISGA proposals, he said: "If some elements of our proposals are deemed problematic or controversial, these issues can be resolved through discussions at the negotiating table. Once the interim administrative authority is institutionalised and becomes functional we are prepared to engage in negotiations for a permanent settlement to the ethnic problem". He added that "if the Government rejects our urgent appeal, adopts delaying tactics perpetuating the suffering of our people, we have no alternative other than to advance the freedom struggle of our nation." Tamil Net, November 28, 2004
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal
To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe. Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) To A Friend