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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 21, November 30, 2009

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

 

SRI LANKA
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Approximating Normalcy
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

After 26 years of full-scale civil war, the island nation is returning to the state of normalcy. On May 20, 2009, the Army, having entered the garrison town of Paranthan and captured Kilinochchi, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s (LTTE) political and administrative headquarters, on the New Year’s Day, officially ended the Eelam War IV. This followed an official announcement made in the afternoon of May 18, over Rupavahini, the main Government-controlled TV channel, that the LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran, LTTE intelligence unit chief Pottu Amman and Sea Tigers’ (sea wing of the LTTE) chief Soosai, had been killed in the course of an Army attack earlier that morning. The Government had announced its ‘humanitarian mission’, launched to liberate civilians held hostage in a human shield by the LTTE for months, had been brought to an end in the afternoon of May 17 in Mullaitivu.

On May 22, the United Nations disclosed that between 80,000 – 100,000 people had been killed in the war since 1983 – including unofficial and unverified tallies suggesting 7,000 civilian deaths since January 2009. On the same day, Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse stated that 6,261 Security Force (SF) personnel, Policemen and paramilitary troopers had been killed and 29,551 wounded, in the offensive that commenced in August 2006 and concluded on May 17, 2009. He also revealed that, since 1981, 23,790 SF personnel had been killed in the war. Though the Defence Secretary did not give casualty figures for the LTTE, military spokesman Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara was quoted as saying that the troops had killed 22,000 LTTE militants during Eelam War IV. In November 2008, the LTTE had revealed that the rebels had lost more than 22,000 cadres since the first guerrilla death in November 1982.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal [SATP] a total of 41,330 persons were killed in the civil war since March 2000. [The SATP has its database since March 2000].

Casualties of Terrorist Violence in Sri Lanka, 2000-2009

 

Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists
Total

2000**

162
784
2845
3791

2001

89
412
1321
1822

2002

14
1
0
15

2003

31
2
26
59

2004

33
7
69
109

2005

153
90
87
330

2006

981
826
2319
4126

2007

525
499
3345
4369

2008

404
1314
9426
11144

2009*

11111
1315
3139
15565

Total

13503
5250
22577
41330
*Data till November 24, 2009
**Data since March 1, 2000

Casualties of Terrorist Violence - 2009

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorist

Total

January

547
146
314
1007

February

946
171
374
1491

March

1365
627
763
2755

April

1053
368
928
2349

May

7197
0
749
7946

June

0
0
5
5

July

0
1
0
1

August

2
0
5
7

September

1
0
1
2

October

0
2
0
2

November *

0
0
0
0

Total

11111
1315
3139
15565
* Data till November 24, 2009

Since the end of war in May, the country has seen another 17 killings, including three civilians, three SF personnel and 11 militants, Though the number clearly suggests that the LTTE, which, at one time, controlled over 15,000 square kilometres, nearly one-fourth of the 65,332 square kilometres territory of the island nation, is decimated, it fails to correctly reflect the threat of the remnants of the LTTE – both inside and outside the country.

According to a November 20 report, the Police uncovered a fresh plot by the Tamil Diaspora to carry out a massive bomb attack in the capital, Colombo. The arrest of Ananda Varnan, a top LTTE militant, in Vavuniya by a special Police team on an unspecified date, revealed the planned attack. The Police also recovered a powerful bomb, which was to be used in the attack. Varnan had received SLR 30,000 from his leaders, based in Malaysia, to carry out the operation. Under interrogation, the suspect had led investigators to a seven kilograms claymore mine and a remote controller in an LTTE hideout. The Police said that the suspect had planned to trigger a claymore attack in the city over the succeeding days. Varnan admitted that he had obtained the remote controller from a shop in Vavuniya. He had earlier escaped from an Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camp in the Vavuniya area after he was brought to the Vavuniya Hospital to receive medical treatment. Investigators disclosed that Varnan had been involved in a series of bomb attacks in the city and its suburbs over a period of time. Earlier, an August 10 report, quoting Defence sources, indicated that key LTTE cadres and others who had infiltrated into Colombo and other areas on suicide missions targeting VIPs and top military personnel, had been mingling with the local population. Further, arrested LTTE leader Kumaran Pathmanathan alias KP reportedly revealed the presence of a large cache of arms and ammunition hidden by the outfit in Colombo, Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake disclosed on August 13.

On May 24, top military officials had stated that over 10,000 LTTE militants had surrendered to the military. Out of these, 202 hardcore elements of the LTTE were identified by the military and separated from the refugees in the welfare camps. Further, a senior Police officer disclosed that some 350 LTTE cadres, who had taken refuge among ordinary IDPs in the camps, had been arrested by the Police, including about 50 female cadres. Among those arrested were those who had been trained in handling explosives, guerrilla warfare and in handling heavy weapons. Prison Commissioner General, Major General V.R. De Silva, on November 16, disclosed further that nearly 600 LTTE suspects were still in custody. According to the Government, 11,000 LTTE child soldiers were also under the protection of the troops. A September 28 media report, however, quoted Senior Superintendent of Police Ranjith Kasturiratna as stating that at least 20,000 of the nearly 300,000 IDPs in the Vavuniya camps had escaped. These were believed to be LTTE cadres.

Reports of the escape of LTTE cadres certainly do not augur well for the security of the island nation. Despite being militarily defeated at the home front, the LTTE remains very politically active in the Tamil Diaspora beyond the country’s borders. Radical expatriate groups can be expected to restore their linkages with surviving LTTE elements within Sri Lanka to work future mischief.

The LTTE international wing has three surviving factions, with the USA-based Visuvanathan Rudrakumaran heading its political affairs; Oslo (Norway) based Perinpanayagam Sivaparan aka Nediyawan, who has declared himself in favour of continuing the LTTE armed struggle, leads a second faction. "The more significant threat to Sri Lanka will come from the Nediyawan factor," analyst Rohan Gunaratna warns. Nediyawan succeeded Kumaran Pathmanathan as the new LTTE leader, following KP’s arrest on August 7. According to Gunaratna, the most secretive faction of the LTTE is headed by Ponnaiah Anandarajah alias Ayyar, who is a US citizen and a double Accountant [an accountant who knows double-entry accounting which is a method of record-keeping that lets people track just where the money comes from and where it goes].

Both Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse and the Minister of Export Development and International Trade, G. L. Peiris, have confirmed that the LTTE’s communication system was still functioning and continuing to plan actions against the country. On August 11, President Mahinda Rajapakse had urged the international community to help the nation crack down on the LTTE’s international financing arm. He said the LTTE was still active in some countries, especially in South-East Asia and Europe. Unsurprisingly, Canada, which was one of the top sources of funding for the LTTE, providing up to USD 12 million a year, admitted on November 4 that the defeat of the LTTE had ended the insurgency, but they remained a terrorist group that "could potentially have a significant impact on Canada".

Nevertheless, in a Press statement issued on November 4, the LTTE welcomed all current democratic moves in the Diaspora, such as a referendum on the Vaddukoddai Resolution [unanimously Adopted at the 1st National Convention of the Tamil United Liberation Front, held at Pannakam (Vaddukoddai Constituency) on May 15, 1976. The TULF went to polls in 1977 with this and received an overwhelming mandate from the Tamil electorate. This was the last time Tamils of Eelam were able to express their wish freely at a democratically conducted poll], Country Councils and Provisional Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (PTGTE). Accordingly, the Norway based LTTE leaders decided to hold the first phase of PTGTE election in that country. However, only 2,667 out of a total of 27,000 Tamils in Norway voted. The LTTE candidate lost and Vijaya Shankar, an Indian Tamil from Chennai – capital of the southern Indian State of Tamil Nadu – secured the largest support, with 1,864 votes. Nevertheless, since the election was an LTTE initiative, it is expected to keep the movement alive.

Meanwhile, under the Government's process of restoring peace and harmony in the country, 45 new Police Stations have been established in the Northern and Eastern provinces, after the two provinces were liberated from the LTTE. 37 of these new Police Stations have been set up in the East and eight in the North. Similarly, the Sri Lankan Army, on May 25, stated that it would boost its manpower by more than 100, 000 troops to prevent a resurgence of the LTTE or any other such group. The troop build up, which will increase the number of Sri Lankan forces from 200,000 to 300,000, was announced by the then Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka. Also, implementing its troop deployment plan for the fully liberated Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu Districts, the Sri Lanka Army established two Headquarters in Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi to oversee the overall security plan for the two Districts. These two Headquarters are in addition to the Headquarters at Wanni in the north.

Stating that the Northern and Eastern provinces of Sri Lanka witnessed virtually no development or growth while under the control of the LTTE, Home Affairs Minister Sarath Amunugama, on November 9, declared that a large chunk of 2009-10 budgets would be allocated to these regions to give a major impetus to developmental activities: "The Government has taken a policy decision to invest largely in the Northern and Eastern provinces. It is only fair that we do that, because there has been no growth there for three decades."

On a positive note, the country has made major gains following the end of war. The Government on November 6 informed that it has already re-settled 119,687 IDPs in their own villages. The exact figure of remain IDPs to be resettled was 143,534. The Government stressed that it would complete the re-settlement process on or before the January 1, 2010. Andrej Mahecic, spokesman for the office of the UNHCR, confirmed that that the re-settlement of IDPs was continuing at a rapid pace and about a third of those displaced during the conflict in Sri Lanka had returned home over the past three months. The Government, however, is apprehensive of widely reported LTTE attempts to revive the organisation amid efforts by the outfit to rescue hardcore cadres housed in Government-run refugees camps for Tamil civilians in the Vavuniya District, according to Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse, and has consequently established a systematic screening process, slowing down the rehabilitation programme.

On the political front, elections for the Uva Provincial Council and Southern Provincial Council were successfully held, with the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance emerging the winner in both. More significantly, elections for the Jaffna Municipal Council and Vavuniya Urban Council were also held. Elections for all the Provinces have now been completed, with the exception of the Northeast Province.

Meanwhile, Election Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake announced, on November 27, that Presidential Elections would be held on January 26, 2010. Nominations would be accepted from 9.00am (SLST) to 11.00am on December 17. This will be the country’s fifth Presidential poll to elect the sixth Executive President. The 2008 electoral register will be used for the election, with a total number of 14,088,500 persons eligible to vote. On November 23, President Mahinda Rajapakse had ordered a fresh Presidential election, two years ahead of his tenure, in order to "seek a fresh mandate". Under the Constitution, the President can call a Presidential election once the incumbent completes four years of the six-year term. President Mahinda Rajapakse had stated, on July 6, that the ‘political solution’ to the ethnic conflict would come after the presidential elections.

In the upcoming Presidential poll the buoyant President Rajapakse, who has no lost a single election, barring Vavuniya Urban Council election, since coming to power in November 2005, faces a serious challenge for the first time as the opposition led by United National Party is to declare the former Army chief General Sarath Fonseka as unanimous candidate. On November 29, Fonseka himself announced that he will be the unanimous candidate from the opposition.

With the LTTE defeated, Prabhakaran and all top rung LTTE leaders killed, and the stage set to secure a political solution, it is time for Colombo to look for a political consensus, which remains elusive, to finally end the ethnic conflict in the Emerald Isle. However, the future discourses will depend upon who emerges as the winner of the Presidential poll.

INDIA
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West Bengal: The Bitter Fruit of Neglect
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

With more than a month to go before the end of this year, fatalities in Left-Wing Extremism (LWE) related incidents in West Bengal had already increased five-fold over the previous year, with 125 fatalities in 2009 (as on November 24), against just 24 in 2008. Significantly, the State has the dubious distinction of recording the highest civilian fatalities (105) among all the LWE affected States in 2009, though on total fatalities, it ranked third, after Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The single biggest factor behind the upsurge in fatalities is the systematic escalation of violence by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), particularly in and around Lalgarh.

Maoist Insurgency-related fatalities in West Bengal, 2005-2009

Year

Civilian
SF
Maoist
Total

2005

5
1
0
6

2006

9
7
4
20

2007

6
0
1
7

2008

19
4
1
24

2009*

105
11
9
125
*Data till November 24, 2009
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal

Fatalities in Left-Wing Extremism - 2009

States

Civilian
SF
Maoist
Total

Andhra Pradesh

7
0
14
21

Bihar

31
25
16
72

Chhattisgarh

74
120
121
315

Jharkhand

67
57
74
198

Maharashtra

10
52
23
85

Orissa

36
31
12
79

Uttar Pradesh

0
0
1
1

West Bengal

105
11
9
125

Total*

330
296
270
896
* Data till November 24, 2009
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal
Note: Compiled from news reports and are provisional.

Throughout 2009, Lalgarh in the West Midnapore District has remained the principal locus of Maoist violence in West Bengal. The sequence began with a failed bid on the life of Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee on November 2, 2008 when the Maoists triggered a landmine explosion at Salboni targeting his cavalcade. Subsequent arrests made by the Police and alleged ‘atrocities’ committed by them were strongly protested by the tribals of the area. The Maoists stoked the flames and surreptitiously hijacked the protests through a hastily constituted front, the People’s Committee against Police Atrocities (PCPA). The Police was subsequently blocked out of villages in the area and Maoists intensified their campaign of selective killings – mostly of cadres and supporters of the ruling Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), even as the State Government pursued a policy of vacillation and, indeed, capitulation. Eventually, however, things came to a head and a reluctant State Government, under mounting pressure to act from the Centre, initiated and operation, jointly executed by State Police and Central Paramilitary Force (CPMF) personnel, to flush out the Maoists. The Lalgarh operation began amid an intense media glare on June 18, 2009.

As the SFs flooded into Lalgarh, the Maoists simply melted away and the significant deployment of troops yielded no enduring gains. On August 6, 2009, a frustrated State administration admitted that the SF operations in Lalgarh had ‘failed’. Nevertheless, the operations continued, even as the Maoists, after a brief hiatus, resumed their targeted killings of CPI-M workers and activists. In their extended list of targets, they also included members and supporters of the Gana Pratirodh Committee [People's Resistance Committee, GPC], an anti-Maoist group backed by the CPI-M. So far, at least eight members of the GPC have been killed.

The SFs did, however, secure a major success on September 26, 2009, when they arrested the PCPA convener, Chhatradhar Mahato. The media friendly leader was arrested by Police personnel posing as journalists, who met him at a hideout for an interview. He has subsequently been charged under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). His arrest was, however, followed by more protests by the PCPA and an escalation of violence by the Maoists.

In a significant development a month after Mahato’s arrest, the PCPA transformed itself into an armed organization called the Sidhu Kanu Gana Militia. The announcement came with the claim that PCPA members had looted 10 firearms in a raid on a CPI-M armed rally in Goaltore. The PCPA spokesperson, Asit Mahato, who replaced Chhatradhar Mahato, declared that the ‘tribal forum’ would "no longer continue democratic processes of rallies and agitations… We have formed the People’s Militia Force. After facing continuous torture by the joint forces and the administration in Jangalmahal, PCPA has decided to pick up arms to combat the Forces." The Police, however, rubbished the PCPA’s claims. The Director-General of Police Bhupinder Singh stated, "The Maoists and the PCPA are the same entity and the Police have been saying so from the very beginning. It is only that they are publicly flaunting their military status." Asit Mahato threatened that the militia would soon hit State and central offices and Government agencies.

On October 27, armed cadres of the PCPA and CPI-Maoist laid siege to the Bhubaneswar-New Delhi Rajdhani Express train at Banstala Railway Station, eight kilometers from Jhargram town in the West Midnapore District. At around 2:30 pm (IST), the Maoists held the train driver hostage and encircled the train for about five hours at Banstala. Some passengers were also injured in brick-batting. The driver and his assistant – initially taken to a building near the station – were later released. The SFs who were rushing to the site for rescue operations were ambushed by the Maoists, triggering an encounter in which two PCPA activists were killed and a Policeman was injured. After the gunfight, the PCPA activists and Maoists holding the train abandoned their positions. The SFs reached the spot later and the train resumed its journey an hour after their arrival. The PCPA activists had orchestrated the incident to demand the release of Chhatradhar Mahato.

The Maoists executed two daring attacks on the SFs:

November 8: Cadres of the CPI-Maoist killed four troopers of the Eastern Frontier Rifles (EFR) and looted their arms near a Police camp close to a school in Gidhni Bazaar area under Jamboni Police Station in West Midnapore District. The incident took place at around 5.30pm (IST) after Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and senior Government officials left West Midnapore District for capital Kolkata after a two-day visit. Claiming responsibility for the killing, the CPI-Maoist politburo member Koteshwar Rao alias Kishan dared the West Bengal and Central governments to deploy as much forces as they wanted in the West Midnapore District. "We have killed the four jawans as they tortured innocent school children who had taken out a rally in the area yesterday demanding the educational institutions be vacated by joint security forces and their classes resume at the earliest," Kishan told the media from an undisclosed location. The Police camp in Gidhni Bazaar was closed by the Government after this attack.

October 20: CPI-Maoist cadres raided Sankrail Police Station in the West Midnapore District and shot two Police officers dead and kidnapped the officer-in-charge of the Police Station. They also looted INR 923,000 from a nearby bank. The Maoists, numbering around 50 and including some women, arrived in two groups on motorcycles and headed for the Police Station and the State Bank of India branch. At the Police Station, they opened fire killing an officer, Dibakar Bhattacharya, and abducted Officer-In-Charge Atindranath Dutta and an Assistant Sub-Inspector Swapan Roy. Roy’s body was later found from a swamp some distance away. The Maoists took away all the arms and ammunition at the Police Station, leaving behind posters demanding the release of PCPA leader Chhatradhar Mahato and withdrawal of troops from Lalgarh. Maoist leader Kishan claimed responsibility for the attack. Dutta was later released on October 22 after 14 tribal women and nine men were granted conditional bail by the District Sessions Court in Midnapore.

In retrospect, three distinct phases of the Maoist operation in Lalgarh can be identified. In the first phase, which lasted from November 2008 to the first half of June 2009, the Maoists systematically fueled the anger of the tribals and took over the protest movement, and then selectively targeted the ruling CPI-Marxist cadres. This campaign had peaked by late May – early June, when the Parliament election results confirmed a weakening of the CPI-Marxist party and strengthening of main opposition party Trinamul Congress. The second phase began on June 18 (when SF operations commenced), with the Maoists mainly offering defensive resistance to the SFs, and holding the increasingly frustrated SFs at bay for a month through mass protests and disruptive demonstrations, gradually resuming their campaign of targeted annihilation against the CPI-Marxist cadres and the anti-Maoist Gana Pratirodh Committee. The third phase began with the attack on the Sankrail Police Station, when the Maoists initiated a direct offensive against the SFs.

Lalgarh overshadowed insurgent activities elsewhere in West Bengal, though Maoists systematically consolidated their position in other parts of the State. Documents seized from Maoist hideouts in Lalgarh during SF operations reveal that the Maoists had set up six Zonal Committees (ZCs) in the State by August 2009, and at least another five were to come up in the south Bengal Districts – Nadia, Burdwan, Murshidabad, Hooghly and Birbhum. Representation from West Bengal in the outfit’s Central Committee (CC) and Politburo had also increased, according to information available to the State and Central Police Organizations. Another unit was to be established to extend Maoist activities in Arambag, Khanakul and Goghat (Hooghly) and Chandrokona, Ghatal (West Midnapore). A Maoist leader hailing from Jangipara in Hooghly has been entrusted with the responsibility of looking after this particular committee, Police sources indicated, adding that another Maoist leader from Jangipara had recently been inducted into the CC. Maoists had expanded their base in Burdwan and Birbhum as well, and were considering a proposal to form two separate ZCs in these two Districts. Earlier, leaders belonging to the party’s Simanta Zonal Committee had been looking after activities in these two Districts. Koteswar Rao had confirmed the expansion into most Districts in the southern part of West Bengal over the last three years. He, however, refused to comment on the representation of West Bengal in the CC and Politburo.

Unconfirmed news reports claim that at least 7,000 armed Maoists had spread out across the West Midnapore, Purulia and Bankura Districts in West Bengal, and across into the East Singhbhum District in the State of Jharkhand. Reports also suggest the presence of 50 hardcore Maoists from Manipur’s People’s Liberation Army, who were training tribal villagers living in these forests.

There are clear indications of a further effort to escalate the conflict. Koteshwar Rao has, for instance, threatened that an armed movement would be launched in capital Kolkata before the 2011 Legislative Assembly elections.

Reports also indicate that the Maoists may be eyeing the sea-route to smuggle in arms. Intelligence agencies have reasons to believe that senior Maoist leader Narayan had been camping on the outskirts of Haldia, operating with the help of mainstream political parties. Police said Narayan has been active in the coastal belt of East Midnapore since 2007 and had played a crucial role in the Nandigram incidents, spearheaded by the Trinamool Congress. He camped in Sonachura and his team members are said to have trained more than 200 youth, who had been roped in with the help of the Bhumi Uchchhed Pratirodh Committee [Committee against Land Evictions] activists. Since then, he has been strengthening the outfit in different coastal villages of East Midnapore and South 24-Paraganas. Several mass organizations, believed to be Maoist fronts, have increased their presence and activities in this part of the State over the past years.

Intelligence agencies suspect that the Maoists are looking for a new corridor to connect coastal West Bengal to neighbouring areas in the State of Orissa. The sea route is important for two reasons. First, security agencies believe, the Maoists are providing shelter to a large group of LTTE cadres who are suspected to have sneaked into India after their defeat at the hands of the Sri Lankan Army. Despite the losses it has suffered, the LTTE still has a huge quantity of sophisticated arms in its arsenal, and is making efforts to smuggle these out of Sri Lanka before they are seized by the Forces there. Second, the sea route is the best option for the smuggling of arms. As the Maoists have lost ground in coastal Andhra Pradesh, the Bengal coast has gained in attraction. A safe sea route in the area would be helpful in smuggling arms through Bangladesh. The marshlands of Sunderbans are an ideal safe haven for such activities, as they offer a multiplicity of escape routes.

Amidst all of this, the West Bengal Government remains reluctant to accept the realities of the Maoist presence across the State, insisting that only four Districts – West Midnapore, East Midnapore, Purulia and Bankura – are ‘affected’. Central agencies, however, list 17 of the State’s 18 Districts as affected, in varying proportions, by Maoist activities.

Nevertheless, when the Union Government banned the CPI-Maoist under the UAPA on June 22, 2009, as the Lalgarh crisis peaked, the State Government did declare that, as the UAPA was applicable to the whole of India, it would also be implemented in West Bengal. However, even after prodding from the Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram, the State Government has not banned the CPI-Maoist under the more appropriate Criminal Law Amendment Act, 1908.

The West Bengal Government also appears to be changing its line on the Lalgarh operations. Having declared them an initial failure, the State Government has now convinced the Centre to deploy an additional six companies of CPMFs, to beef up the 17 companies of CPMFs, mostly the Border Security Force Personnel and the Central Reserve Police Force, already deployed in the area.

Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee visited Midnapore on November 2 and 8, to review the situation in the district, and announced that the projected operations led by CPMFs would not go forward in West Bengal, and that the State’s own security apparatus would be improved to deal with the crisis: "The situation in Lalgarh and its adjacent areas, where there was easy access for Maoists, the law and order situation has improved to a considerable degree. But keeping in view the recent attacks we have decided to strengthen the force and increase the security system in the area further… After reviewing the situation of Jhargram sub-division we have decided to increase the strength of the Police in the Police Stations, enhance the security system like building of boundary walls and keeping sandbags and provide more weapons including sophisticated arms to combat the Maoist and the PCPA people who are creating disturbance in the area." When asked why, despite the concentration of joint Forces in the area there had been several killings by the Maoist, the Chief Minister was sanguine: "Think about the situation one year back," he argued, "Police was not able to enter the area and the entire region was in possession of the Maoists and the PCPA… It is true that that we don’t have control over the whole area, but our Forces have been successful in gaining control over the strategic points and major roads and villages of the area." The Chief Minister ruled out any talks with the Maoists as long as they did not abjure violence.

Years of neglect by West Bengal’s Marxist Government have eroded any possibility of an early solution to the crisis created by the Maoist incursion. Fire fighting measures have, at best, yielded uncertain gains. Worse, the political situation currently prevailing is far from conducive to the initiation of sustained and effective operations against the Maoists. While the ruling Marxists have accused the TC, the main opposition party, of hobnobbing with the Maoists, the TC, on its part, has declared that there are "no Maoists in West Bengal" and that the "Maoists and Marxists are two sides of the same coin". With a polarized and exceptionally irresponsible politics at play in the State, and all attention focused on the Assembly Elections of 2011, opportunities for further Maoist consolidation can only expand, even as the possibilities of any early resolution of the conflict recede further.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November 23-29, 2009

 

Civilian

Security Force Personnel

Terrorist/Insurgent

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Left-wing Extremism

1
0
0
1

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
3
4

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
2
2

Madhya pradesh

2
1
0
3

Manipur

1
5
1
7

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
0
2
2

Jharkhand

3
1
0
4

Maharashtra

2
0
0
2

West Bengal

6
2
0
8

Total (INDIA)

15
9
8
32

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

0
2
0
2

FATA

13
0
139
152

NWFP

0
0
17
17

Total (PAKISTAN)

13
2
156
171
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Terrorist outfits expand focus beyond Kashmir valley, says Ministry of Home Affairs: On the eve of the first anniversary of the November 26, 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said that terrorists backed by various external agencies had expanded their focus beyond the Kashmir Valley with the objective of creating communal tension and hitting the country's economic growth. Underlining the threats which exist despite various security measures taken post-Mumbai terror attacks, the MHA said, "The challenge that we face today is from terrorist organisations that are not only equipped with latest technologies and have immense access to funds, but are having active backing of various external agencies."

Among measures taken to strengthen security and intelligence infrastructure in the past year, the MHA listed functioning of the Multi-Agency Centre within the Intelligence Bureau for effective intelligence sharing, setting up of four regional hubs of National Security Guard at Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai, the move to set up 20 counter-insurgency and anti-terrorism schools across the country, constitution of National Investigation Agency and strengthening of coastal security among other things. The MHA also said that due to close coordination among intelligence and security agencies of the Centre and States, a number of sleeper cells were broken up, key Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) operatives arrested, terrorist incidents averted and a large number of cases resolved. Referring to the situation in Jammu and Kashmir, the MHA said that the number of violent incidents has decreased considerably and till October, 436 incidents were reported compared to 575 during the corresponding period in 2008. Times of India, November 26, 2009.

Over 2000 Pakistani militants waiting to infiltrate into India, says Army chief General Deepak Kapoor: With 42 terrorist-training camps still operational in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir, the Army says there are over 2,000 terrorists waiting across the border for "an opportune and favourable time" to infiltrate into India. "There are estimated 42 terrorist training camps in Pakistan as per our (intelligence) reports. The total number of militants staged in these camps is roughly between 2,000 and 2,500, and they are ready to infiltrate to this side," said Army chief General Deepak Kapoor, after the inauguration of a war memorial ‘Balidan Sthambh’ at Jammu on November 24, 2009. Commenting on the recent spike in cease-fire violations from across the border, General Kapoor said that the Pakistan Army was trying to push in ‘‘more and more militants’’ into Jammu and Kashmir before the mountain passes are submerged under snow. Times of India, November 30, 2009.


PAKISTAN

139 militants and 13 civilians killed during the week in FATA: The Security Forces (SFs) killed four militants during a search operation in the Bara town of Khyber Agency on November 29, 2009. "Four militants were killed and several others were wounded in search operations in different parts of Bara," a senior military official told AFP. On the same day, four more militants were killed in Wana, the capital of South Waziristan Agency. "Troops retaliated after militants fired rockets at their camp in Wana. Four militants were killed and two were arrested," a local military spokesman said.

Troops killed 15 Taliban militants in the ongoing Operation Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan, said the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) on November 27. "Security forces cleared Narakai after ... a clash ... 15 Taliban were killed and one soldier injured," said the ISPR in a statement, adding that troops cleared Sarwekai-Siplatoi Road in the same area, defusing 10 Improvised Explosive Devices planted along the road. Further, a Frontier Corps (FC) statement said troops backed by helicopter gun ships killed 15 Taliban militants in the Khyber Agency. The Army and the FC mounted the operation in Khyber three days ago to crack down on militants, some of whom have attacked convoys supplying foreign troops fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan. Military spokesman Major Fazlur Rehman told AFP that three helicopter gun ships neutralized Taliban positions. Separately, a key anti-Taliban leader was killed in a bomb attack at Mamoond tehsil (revenue unit) in Bajaur Agency on November 27. According to local sources, three Taliban militants were injured in the bomb blast.

18 Taliban militants were killed and 14 others injured when fighter jets and helicopter gunships targeted Taliban positions in Orakzai Agency on November 26. Seven Taliban hideouts were also destroyed in the raids. Eight Taliban militants were killed when fighter jets and helicopter gunships bombed the Chapri Ferozkhel area of Lower Orakzai, while 10 Taliban militants were killed in air strikes that targeted Dabori, Alf Khel and Toorsimt areas of Upper Orakzai.

Seven militants were killed and 10 others arrested as the SFs continued their operations in the Shahukhel area of the Orakzai Agency on November 25. Tribal sources said the SFs targeted the hideouts of militants in the Shahukhel area, killing at least seven militants and arresting 10 others.

Separately, the SFs claimed to have killed three militants and injured eight others in the ongoing Operation Rah-e-Nijat in the South Waziristan Agency on November 25. Official sources said the SFs and militants clashed in an area between Asman Manza Nand in the Ladha sub-division, leaving three militants dead and eight others injured. Further, two women were killed and an equal number of them were wounded when an artillery shell landed in a house in the Storikhel area of Tirah Valley in Khyber Agency on November 25. Local sources said three children from the same family were also injured in the incident.

SFs killed at least 23 militants during an operation in the Bara tehsil (revenue unit) of the Khyber Agency on November 24. The SFs were backed by helicopters, tanks, armoured personnel carriers and heavy artillery. A press release issued by the Frontier Corps (FC) media cell in Jamrud said that during the day-long operation, codenamed Khwakh Ba De Sham at least 23 militants were killed and 36 suspects arrested. 12 explosives-laden vehicles were destroyed and a huge quantity of arms and ammunitions seized in different localities of Bara. Separately, tribal and official sources said helicopter gunships pounded the hideouts and compounds of militants in the Daburi, Ghiljo, Khadizai, Mamozai, Tor Smat, Akhunkot, Mazid Ghari, Saiful Darra, Machiney Killay, Arghanjo and Ghundi Killay areas of Orakzai Agency, killing 19 militants and injuring 13 others on November 24. Further, four militants were killed and several others sustained injuries in clashes with the SFs in the Khar sub-division of Bajaur Agency on November 24. Three members of a family, including two children, and a prisoner were killed and four others injured when rockets hit a house in Maminzo area and Bajaur Scouts headquarters in Khar sub-division early in the day.

The SFs claimed to have killed 17 militants in the Shahukhel area of Orakzai Agency on November 23. Official sources said gunship helicopters targeted the hideouts and compounds of the militants in the Shahukhel area. Ground forces also used heavy artillery and took control of the area. The sources said during the shelling, the SFs killed 17 militants and injured eight others. The gunship helicopters also targeted militant hideouts in Lal Garhi, Teri Killay, Kasha and Shaker Tangi. Separately, nine more Taliban militants have been killed in the ongoing Operation Rah-e-Nijat in the South Waziristan Agency on November 23. The SFs Security Forces cleared Golden Top west of Pash Ziarat in Tabai Sar following "intense clashes" with Taliban, and consolidated their positions around Lakhi Ghund and the Bunker ridge. Six people were killed when a shell landed in a civilian area during an exchange of fire between the militants and SFs at Gagra check-post in the Khyber Agency on November 23. In addition, 19 persons, including seven soldiers, sustained injuries in the clash. Further, the SFs and volunteers of the Khwezai Peace Committee killed a militant and arrested a ‘commander’ and demolished the houses of three other militants in the Spinki Tangi area in the Baizai sub-division of Mohmand Agency on November 23. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, November 24-30, 2009.

17 militants killed during the week in NWFP: The Security Forces (SFs) on November 25, 2009 killed three militants in the Swat District. According to an Inter-Services Public Relations statement, "Security forces carried out a search operation at Bar Kandao and killed three terrorists."

Helicopter gunships targeted the hideouts of militants in the Shahukhel and Tora Warai areas of Hangu District on November 24, killing 11 militants and destroying three of their hideouts. Sources said the action was taken after a group of militants fired rockets at the SFs in Shahukhel and Tora Warai areas, injuring a soldier. Soon after the incident, the SFs launched an offensive against the militants, hitting their hideouts. In addition, three militants were killed and an equal number of them were arrested in two separate incidents in the Swat District on November 24. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, November 24-30, 2009.

Five Army officers arrested for links to Chicago suspects: Five Pakistani Army officers have been detained for questioning over possible links to the two US terror suspects of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), who are accused of plotting an armed attack on a Danish newspaper, intelligence officials said on November 24, 2009. LeT militants David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana were arrested in Chicago during October 2009. US prosecutors said the two men were believed to be working with an unidentified senior member of the outfit and a senior Al Qaeda operative. Two Pakistani intelligence officials said phone records showed the five Pakistani officers had contacted Headley and Rana. They say the five include a retired brigadier general and two active lieutenant colonels, but did not provide more details. Daily Times, November 25, 2009.

Government tables Balochistan package in parliament: The Federal Government on November 24, 2009 unfolded a five-tier multi-dimensional special package for the Balochistan province - combining political, administrative and economic initiatives - in a joint sitting of parliament. The package, named Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan, was presented by the Pakistan People’s Party Senator Mian Raza Rabbani, who heads the seven-member parliamentary committee, which finalised the package in consultation with the political leadership in parliament and other stakeholders. The five-tier package - constitutional, political, administrative, economic and monitoring mechanism - envisages the withdrawal of the Army from Sui that would be replaced with the Frontier Corps, a fact-finding commission, headed by a retired judge of the Supreme Court/high court, to probe into the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, inquiry by the superior judiciary into the murder of Baloch political workers, including Ghulam Muhammad, Lala Munir and Munir Ahmed, and target killings in the province. The package also included the release of all political workers and withdrawal of cases against those who have no charges, while the missing persons with charges would be brought before a court of competent jurisdiction for trial within seven days. Such missing persons would be allowed legal counsel of their choice and the Government would assist them in this regard. Family members of such persons be informed accordingly and allowed visiting rights.

Presenting the details of the package, Senator Raza Rabbani said necessary constitutional amendments would be made to strengthen the provincial autonomy as demanded by smaller provinces, especially Balochistan. The constitutional reforms related matters include abolition of the Concurrent List, end to the Police Order and the Balochistan Local Government Ordinance 2001 from the 6th Schedule and effective implementation of the Article 153 relating to the Council of Common Interest. The package assures effective implementation of articles 154 to 159 and 170 of the Constitution. The unanimously passed resolutions of the Balochistan Assembly from 2002 till date related to the province would be implemented within the legal framework of the Constitution.

On the economic side, the package envisages that the federal government will pay royalty worth PKR 120 billion on the Gas Development Surcharge from 1954 to 1991, to be payable over 12 years. Rabbani said the restructuring of the National Finance Commission award criteria was already underway and the criteria of inverse population, poverty and resource generation need to be taken into consideration.

About political matters, the Senator said the Federal Government, in consultation with the provincial Government, would release all political workers except those involved in heinous crimes. A dialogue would be initiated with all major stakeholders in the political spectrum of the province to bring them into the mainstream, he said. He added that the exiled leaders, who want to return to Pakistan, would be facilitated except those who were involved in acts of terrorism. Referring to the administrative measures, Rabbani said the Federal Government should immediately review the role of federal agencies in the province and stop all such operations that were not related to war against terrorism. Rabbani said a commission, headed by a sitting member of the superior judiciary from Balochistan, would be constituted in respect of the missing persons. The names of the missing persons would be identified and if found to be in custody without any charges they would be released, he said. In view of the decision of the provincial Government, he said the policy of conversion of ‘B’ areas into ‘A’ areas would be reviewed from time to time. The News, November 25, 2009.


SRI LANKA

Presidential Election to be held on January 26, 2010: The Presidential Election will be held on January 26, 2010, announced the Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake on November 27, 2009. Nominations will be accepted from 9.00am (SLST) to 11.00am on December 17, 2009. This will be the country’s fifth Presidential poll to elect the sixth Executive President. The 2008 electoral register will be used for the election with a total number of 14,088,500 persons eligible to vote. Earlier, President Mahinda Rajapakse decided to go for a Presidential election though his term of office expires only two years later in November 2011. Daily News, November 24-30, 2009.

 


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

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