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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 16, No. 23, December 4, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Targeting
the Future
Tushar
Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
At least
nine persons, including six students, were killed and
37 were injured when Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
terrorists attacked the Agricultural Training Institute
(ATI) in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(KP), on December 1, 2017. At least four attackers wearing
suicide jackets under burqas (veils) reached the
compound in a rickshaw. Their first target was the security
guard, after which they headed inside towards the ATI
students' hostel. Two soldiers were also injured in the
rescue operation. A cache of arms and ammunition, including
three suicide jackets, 20 hand grenades, AK-47 rifles
and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were recovered
from the incident site. According to reports, about 120
college residents, out of a total of nearly 400, were
present at the time of the attack. Most of the others
had gone home for a long holiday weekend.
TTP took
the responsibility for the attack, claiming that it was
not targeting the Institute, but a safe house belonging
to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the
same area.
The worst
ever attack targeting educational institutions in KP,
indeed, across Pakistan, took place on December 16, 2014,
when terrorists had attacked the Peshawar Army
Public School (APS) killing at least
148 persons, including 135 children.
Between
the APS and ATI attacks, according to partial data compiled
by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), KP recorded
at least two attacks on educational institutions, resulting
in 21 deaths and 37 injuries (data till December 1, 2017.
These included:
May 19,
2017: A schoolboy and watchman of the school sustained
injuries in a bomb attack on a private school in the Shabqadar
tehsil (revenue unit) area of Charsadda District
in KP. No one took responsibility for the attack.
January
20, 2016: Four TTP fidayeen (suicide attackers)
stormed the Bacha Khan University campus in the Charsadda
District, killing at least 21 persons, including 17 students,
two gardeners, a caretaker and a professor. Another 35
persons were injured in the attack. TTP had taken responsibility
for the attack.
KP, according
to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database,
has seen a near-continuous
declinein terrorism-linked fatalities
since their peak at 1,206 killed in 2011 (there was a
significant but transient spike in 2013), to just 121
killed in 2017, including 55 terrorists, 40 civilians
(data till December 3). During the corresponding period
of the preceding year, the Province had recorded 212 such
fatalities, including 123 civilians, 49 SF personnel,
and 40 terrorists. There was just one more fatality (one
SF) in the remaining period of 2016. Meanwhile, overall
terrorism-linked fatalities across Pakistan stood at 1,197,
including 509 civilian, 488 terrorists and 200 SF personnel
in the current year. During the corresponding period of
the preceding year, the nation had recorded 1,758 such
fatalities, including 860 terrorists, 606 civilians, and
292 SF personnel. There were another 45 fatalities (38
terrorists, six civilians and one SF trooper) in the reaming
period of 2016.
Significantly,
after the APS Peshawar attack, many loopholes in the security
arrangements of educational institutions had come to light.
Then media reports indicated that less than 10 per cent
of schools in KP had adequate security arrangements to
thwart APS-like attacks, while the rest were functioning
without or with insufficient protection for the students.
There are more than 3,200 private and public schools in
Peshawar alone, but just over 200 were issued “no objection
certificates” (NOCs) indicating that they had adopted
adequate security measures.
Qaiser
Alam Khan, Additional Secretary, Elementary and Secondary
Education had disclosed on January 25, 2015, that 50 per
cent of Government schools in Pakistan had no boundary
walls; at least 11 per cent in KP did not have protective
walls. Khan also stated that 4,000 schools across the
Province had no boundary walls at that time. He also noted
that the Government has allocated PKR 7.5 billion for
the state-owned educational institutions, and that PKR
two billion were to be spent by June 30, 2015, while the
remaining amounts would be carried forward and spent till
2017.
Further,
according to an April 6, 2015, report, the KP Police had
been directed to inspect the security arrangements in
and around public and private sector educational institutions
to avoid APS-like attacks in future. Special committees
of representatives of the Police, District Administration
and Education Department had been constituted to visit
schools, colleges and universities. The Police inspected
4,058 educational institutions in the provincial capital
under the National Action Plan (NAP) and issued notices
to 3,239 for inadequate security. Senior Superintendent
of Police (SSP), Operations, Peshawar, Mian Saeed Ahmad
disclosed, “The police have inspected 1,280 educational
institutions in the limits of city, 1,080 in cantonment
and 1,698 schools, colleges and universities in the rural
areas. Over 1,200 of these institutions in city, 967 in
cantonment and 974 in rural areas were issued notices
to improve security.”
Similarly,
in the wake terrorist attack on the Bacha Khan University,
Inspector General of Police (IGP), KP, Nasir Khan Durrani
issued detailed security guide lines on January 26, 2016,
for enhancing the security of educational institutions
to the Capital City Police Officer (CCPO), Peshawar, Regional
Police Officers (RPOs) and District Police Officers (DPOs).
These security guidelines pertained to the employment
of security staff, manning entry and exit points, establishing
observation posts, raising and fencing perimeter walls,
ensuring patrolling and vigilance inside and outside the
premises, effective communication within the security
staff, installing SOS alert systems, managing school entry
systems, constituting parents vigilance committees and
organizing drills and rehearsals. The DPOs had been directed
to convene a meeting of all heads of private schools and
colleges, government schools and colleges and vulnerable
educational institutions, along with the representatives
from the Education Department and District Administration,
to sensitize them about vulnerabilities and advise them
to take appropriate security measures.
The security
of educational institutions all over KP has since purportedly
been upgraded. Peshawar Senior Superintendent of Police
(SSP), Operations, Abbas Majeed Marwat claimed, on September
14, 2017,
Twenty
special Anti-Terrorist Squad and Elite Police force
units have been deployed across the district to
keep a check on the security of schools, colleges
and universities. Each of the units includes six
or seven specially trained police commandos. In
addition, all the sub divisional officers have been
directed to conduct a security audit and inspection
of the educational institutions on daily basis.
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The SSP
along with other officers have paid dozens of visits to
the schools, colleges and universities of the provincial
capital to inspect their security arrangements.
KP Education
Minister Atif Khan claimed further, on September 14, 2017,
We
have raised the boundary walls of the government-run
schools while barbed wire has also been placed so
no one can scale these walls from the back side.
The KP Government also has trained security guards
of a number of schools to help ensure protection
of school buildings and millions of children.
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The ATI
attack, however, once again demonstrates that providing
security to educational institutions, particularly in
KP, is not possible without creating an environment of
all-round peace in the country. With terrorism and extremism
rampant across the Province and the country at large,
selective measures to secure educational institutions
can provide no real protection to the children and youth
in these establishments.
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Hopes
and Fears
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
After a
gap of 18 years, the first phase of Provincial and Parliamentary
Elections was held across 32 Hill Districts in six Provinces
on November 26, 2017. 65 per cent of the 3.19 million
voters cast their votes. Elections in the first phase
took place for 37 federal Parliamentary and 74 Provincial
Assembly seats. There are 165 seats in the House of Representatives
and 330 in the Provincial Assemblies in total. The remaining
seats are scheduled for elections on December 7, 2017,
in the second phase covering 45 Districts, including Kathmandu
valley and the southern plains of Nepal known as the Terai.
The country must conduct the elections to the House of
Representatives and Provincial Assemblies by the constitutional
deadline of January 21, 2017. This is for the first time
that elections for the Parliament and Provincial Assemblies
are being conducted under the new Constitution adopted
on September 20, 2015. The last parliamentary poll was
held in 1999.
After the
conclusion of the elections, the Election Commission (EC)
claimed the first phase a “historic success” except for
violent incidents in a few polling centers. Similarly,
attributing the peaceful conduct of elections to the effective
and good security arrangements by the Ministry of Home
Affairs (MoHA), its Spokesman Narayan Prasad Sharma Duwadi
noted “Due to the Ministry’s security plans, the election
was not disturbed anywhere.”
Some violent
incidents were reported on the polling day. Three persons
sustained injuries in clashes that erupted among supporters
of the Democratic Alliance and Left Alliance at the Deurali
Primary School polling centre in Sindhupalchowk District;
two Policemen were injured after an unidentified gunman
shot them during a security check in Niradnama of Siraha
District; a bomb exploded at the main gate of the Panchakanya
Secondary School election centre while voters were casting
their ballots at Chyangre in Pauwadung Rural Municipality–3
in Bhojpur District; a bomb exploded at Bhagawati Secondary
School at Aatharai Tribeni Rural Municipality in Taplejung
District, halting the election proceedings for two hours;
a sutli (string) bomb went off at a polling station
at Chyangre in Pauwadumma Rural Municipality–3 in Bhojpur
District; voters loyal to the Left Alliance captured the
Gaurishankr Rural Municipality-based Suri polling centre
in Dolakha District and chased away Nepali Congress (NC)-aligned
voters; Police arrested seven cadres of the Left Alliance
after they tried to capture the Eklebari Ward Office polling
centrer at Tamakoshi Rural Municipality–1 in Dolakha District.
Meanwhile, Police Headquarters claimed that a total of
10 Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) were recovered
during the election period from Jajarkot, Nuwakot, Darchula,
Rupandehi, Rolpa, Dolakha, Kapilvastu, Baglung and Taplejung
Districts.
Further,
there was pre-poll violence in various Districts. According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), 16 persons were injured in 13 incidents
of bomb explosion and another 11 were injured in five
incidents of clashes. Security fears were also triggered
amid incidents of explosions targeting candidates and
their campaigns in several parts of the country. As a
result, compared to the average turnout during the Constituent
Assembly (CA) elections on November
19, 2013 and three
local level elections
held on May 14, June 28, and September 18, 2017, respectively,
voter participation in the present election, at 65 per
cent, was lower. There was a 78.74 per cent turnout in
the CA polls, and 74.16 per cent in the local level elections.
On November
12, 2017, concerned about pre-poll violence, the EC directed
MoHA and security agencies to control incidents of violence
in the run-up to the first phase of provincial and parliamentary
polls slated for November 26. Further, as the incidents
of poll-related violence increased, Chief Election Commissioner
(CEC) Ayodhi Prasad Yadav addressing a high-level security
meeting at the EC’s central office in Kantipath, Kathmandu,
on November 21, 2017, directed top officials of all security
agencies — Nepali Army, Nepal Police, Armed Police Force
and National Investigation Department — and the MoHA to
ensure proper security for people.
Amidst
the sudden rise in incidents of violence targeting candidates
and election campaigns during the first phase, the National
Security Council (NSC) in a confidential report on October
23, 2017, noted that the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist
Party of Nepal (CPN) was the major security threat to
the elections scheduled on November 26 and December 7.
The report stated that the Chand-led group had formed
a parallel People’s Government and People’s Court. The
group had mobilized its National Volunteer Organization,
the youth wing of the party, which had decided to boycott
elections. According to the NDC report, the Chand-led
group decided to launch various activities to disrupt
elections in coordination with other forces who are opposed
to the New Constitution. The party also decided to ‘expose’
both the left alliance and democratic alliance, which
are in favour of parliamentary democracy, through various
activities. The group has been organizing closed-door
training sessions and meetings, and has also expanded
its organizational bases through conferences and cultural
activities.
Meanwhile,
according to the Chand-led CPN’s secret circular obtained
by Republica on November 18, 2017, the party had
directed its organization to prepare plans to foil the
polls: “Our party comrades should resort to small and
medium scale physical action in a responsible fashion
but avoid causing human casualties.” The party instructed
rank and file about the decision to continue the physical
action until November 25, a day before the polls in 32
Hill Districts. The circular further states that the party
has decided to protest against parliamentary polls in
line with its stance against the parliamentary system
of governance.
On November
24, 2017, MoHA instructed the Police to arrest top leaders
of the Chand-led CPN including Chand, Khadga Bahadur Biswokarma
and Dharmendra Bastola among others, as part of its intensified
move to curb anti-election activities. The instruction
came in line with MoHA’s conclusion that the Chand-led
CPN is a major security threat to the elections. 49 Chand-led
CPN cadres were arrested from various Districts during
the first phase, for anti-elections activities.
In a dramatic
turn of events on October 3, 2017, the chiefs of three
left political parties – Communist Party of Nepal-Unified
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist
Centre (CPN-Maoist Center) and Naya Shakti Party-Nepal
(NSP-N) – formed an electoral alliance, the Left Alliance,
to contest the upcoming Provincial and Parliamentary elections.
Reading out the six-point agreement, CPN-Maoist Center
leader Janardan Sharma observed that the three parties
would merge and form a sole communist force after the
elections. The agreement read: “An eight-member unification
coordination committee would be formed immediately to
facilitate preparations for the merger, which the party
said would be held as soon as possible after the polls.”
Responding
to the move of the CPN-UML to forge a Left Alliance for
the upcoming provincial and parliamentary elections, a
meeting held at the Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s
official residence at Baluwatar, Kathmandu on October
4, 2017, between the top leaders of NC, Rastriya Janata
Party Nepal (RJPN), Federal Socialist Forum Nepal (FSFN),
Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Rastriya Prajatantra
Party-Democratic (RPP-D) and Madhesi Janadhikar Forum
(MJF), decided to forge an electoral alliance – the Democratic
Alliance – for the upcoming elections. Reacting against
the Left Alliance, NC Central Working Committee (CWC)
on October 6, 2017, concluded that the Left Alliance was
against national unity and the democratic system, and
could affect Constitution implementation and the peace
process.
Later,
NC President Deuba, addressing a function organized at
the party's headquarters at Sanepa in Lalitpur District
to unveil the party's election manifesto on October 31,
2017, observed, "The communist alliance is trying
to undermine democracy. Democracy has given people all
sorts of rights. But under communism people's right to
protest against injustice is usurped. There is not even
right to cry in communism when there is injustice."
Similarly, NC senior leader Ram Chandra Paudel while addressing
an election rally at the Rainas Municipality in Lamjung
District on November 20, 2017, stated, “Communists exercising
in multi party system are trying to forge consensus to
push the country toward anarchism, to stop the nation
from being ruled by autocratic rules, the democratic forces
should emerge victorious to safeguard democracy in the
nation (sic).”
Despite
sporadic disruptions at election rallies and around election
candidates, with the completion of these elections, Nepal
will have embarked on a new political course. The tortuous
transition toward democratic consolidation in a federal
structure and the building up of new institutions must
need to be understood as deep deficits to be addressed
in politics and the rule of law. The overriding hope is
that these elections will move Nepal out of a protracted
post-conflict transition into a period of stabilization.
Amidst these hopes and fears, a general atmosphere of
uncertainty persists, and much remains to be done.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
November
27-December
3, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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BANGLADESH
|
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Islamist Terrorism
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0
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3
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3
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3
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Left-wing
Extremism
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0
|
0
|
1
|
1
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BANGLADESH
(Total)
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0
|
0
|
4
|
4
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INDIA
|
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Jammu and
Kashmir
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0
|
0
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5
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5
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Assam
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0
|
0
|
1
|
1
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Left-Wing
Extremism
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Chhattisgarh
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
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Jharkhand
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
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Maharashtra
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0
|
1
|
0
|
1
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INDIA (Total)
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2
|
1
|
6
|
9
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PAKISTAN
|
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Balochistan
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
3
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FATA
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6
|
1
|
4
|
11
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ICT
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
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KP
|
9
|
0
|
4
|
13
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Punjab
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
6
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Sindh
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
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PAKISTAN
(Total)
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20
|
5
|
13
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38
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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