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Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 16, No. 21, November 20, 2017

BANGLADESH

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War without End
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate; Institute for Conflict Management

On November 16, 2017, Police raided a house at Nawduli village in the Naogaon District (in Northern Bangladesh) and arrested five cadres of the Neo-Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (Neo-JMB). Police recovered two foreign-made pistols, 13 rounds, electronic devices, explosives and grenade making materials from their possession.

On November 7, 2017, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested two cadres of Ansar al-Islam from the Narayanganj District’s Siddhirganj area in Bangladesh. RAB recovered local weapons, jihadi literature and leaflets from their possession.

On October 31, 2017, RAB arrested four Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) cadres, including a pilot of Bangladesh’s national flag carrier Biman Bangladesh Airlines, in the capital Dhaka city’s Darus Salam area. The four were planning to attack houses of Government high-ups and to take air passengers hostage in the Middle East.

On October 29, 2017, in a counter-terrorism (CT) drive, RAB arrested three Neo-JMB cadres from Balabona village of Chapainawabganj District. RAB recovered a pistol, one magazine, three bullets, 1.1 kilogram explosive substances and three books on jihad from their possession.

On October 18, 2017, two recruiters of Neo-JMB identified as Mohammad Gias Uddin (34) and Mohammad Liton (34) were arrested from Sabujbagh and Wari areas in Dhaka city.

In its unremitting effort against terrorist formations in Bangladesh since the Gulshan Cafe attack on July 1, 2016, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 103 Islamist terrorists have been killed and another 1,379 arrested across Bangladesh. Prominent among those killed were the Neo-JMB leader and mastermind of the Gulshan Cafe attack, Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury aka Shaykh Abu Ibrahim Al Hanif aka Amir (30); the JMB ‘military commander’ for the northern region Khaled Hasan aka Badar Mama (30); Neo-JMB ‘military commander’ Murad aka Jahangir Alam aka Omar; JMB ‘regional commander’ Tulu Mollah (33); JMB ‘regional coordinator’ Abu Musa aka Abujar; Neo-JMB ‘military chief’ Aminur Islam aka Alam (23); Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) ‘chief’ Mufti Abdul Hannan; and HUJI-B ‘regional commander’ Tajul Islam Mahmud aka Mama Hujur (46) (data till November 19, 2017).

To expand its anti-terror operations to hunt down suspected extremists, the Government approved a full-fledged Anti-Terrorism Unit (ATU) with a nationwide jurisdiction to combat militancy and terrorism, on September 20, 2017. The Home Ministry issued a notification after the approval of the Ministry of Finance. According to the Government order, the 581-member ATU will be headed by an Additional Inspector General of Police (AIGP). The unit will work solely on terrorism related issues and combating terrorists. The new unit will have one Deputy Inspector General (DIG), two Additional Deputy Inspector General (ADIGs), five Superintendents of Police (SPs), 10 Additional Superintendents of Police, 12 Assistant Superintendents of Police, 75 Inspectors, 125 Sub-Inspectors, 140 Assistant Sub-Inspectors, 200 Constables, and 10 office staffs. In addition, the unit will have 16 jeeps, two SWAT vans, eight double cabin pickups, one ambulance, one truck, an armored personnel carrier (APC), one water canon van, one prison van and 10 motorcycles.

Further, on October 25, 2017, to curb controversy regarding the madrasa education system, the Government directed Bangladesh Madrasa Education Board to remove the chapters on Jihad. The new textbooks of the Bangladesh Madrasa Education Board will not contain any chapters with lessons on Jihad, for the first time in nearly four decades. The Bangladesh Madrasa Education Board also known as the Alia Madrasa Education Board is one of three types of madrasa education systems in Bangladesh, along with the Qawmi and Hifz madrasas. Since the inception of the board in 1979, chapters on Jihad were included in the madrasa textbooks from class VIII to the degree level. Jihad has been defined in madrasa textbooks as a “struggle or fight against the enemies of Islam”. Moreover, on November 7, 2017, the Government shut down Lakehead Grammar School for patronizing militancy. In a letter signed by the Education Ministry’s Joint Secretary Salma Jahan, the Ministry observed that the school was inspiring religious extremism, building extremist organizations, and carrying out activities against the nation and its independence.

In a startling revelation at the meeting of the National Committee on Militancy Resistance and Prevention in Dhaka on September 4, 2017, members from security agencies disclosed that 440 persons accused in 331 terrorism related cases had fled the country after getting bail. Frustratingly, an official of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) unit, seeking anonymity, noted, “We work tirelessly for months to put these terrorists behind bars and then all that hard work goes down the drain when they are granted bail and flee the country. Once they are out, these terrorists either go into hiding or start their terrorist activities all over again. If this keeps happening, we cannot stop militancy in Bangladesh.” According to different law enforcement agencies, more than 200 suspected terrorists are out on bail since January 2017. Most of these are members of Neo-JMB, old JMB, Ansar al-Islam, HuJI-B and Hizb-ut Tahrir. It is usually the delay in investigation and legal proceedings that allow terrorists to take advantage of the system.

In another revelation, on October 1, 2017, ATU officials disclosed that terrorist outfits have apparently smartened up and become tech-savvy, as they are increasingly using encrypted communications applications (apps) to maintain communications online, making it harder for law enforcement agencies to trace them. They noted that terrorists initially used popular apps like Facebook and its Messenger, and Google Hangouts to communicate, but had recently begun shifting to encrypted messaging apps such as Threema, Telegram and Wickr to maintain secrecy. Terrorists also use WhatsApp, Viber, Tango, Hike and several other similar apps, as most of them also have the encryption facility, but they are rapidly switching platforms to avoid detection. They may also use Silent Circle, Signal, Chat Secure, OS Tel or Red Phone, which are highly advanced and more privacy-conscious messaging apps, in the future. If they do this, tracing their secret and online networks will prove even more challenging. For instance, Abu Siddique Sohel aka Sakib aka Sajid (34), an Ansar Al Islam terrorist told Police during interrogation that their 'big brother' Major Zia communicated with all the members of the organization through secret apps. Sohel was arrested on November 5, 2017, in connection with the murder of writer-blogger Avijit Roy in Dhaka city's Mohammadpur area on February 26, 2015. Sohel added that every member of the organization had to attend to the app at a particular time every day. Earlier, during the International Police Conference held in Dhaka city from March 12-14, 2017, Bangladesh Police disclosed that research on 250 arrested terrorists found that 82 percent of them had become involved with their respective terror outfits online.

The radicalization of a segment of Bangladesh’s expatriates is another key concern for the country. Hundreds of Bangladeshi workers living in European, West and Southeast Asian countries, have come under the influence of jihadi ideologies and programmes. On January 20, 2015, Singapore Police arrested 27 Bangladeshi construction workers for connections with Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS, formerly, Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, also Daesh). On August 19, 2016, Peyar Ahmed Akash, a Bangladeshi expatriate was arrested by Malaysian Police for his suspected involvement in terrorist activities. On January 19, 2017, two Bangladeshis working as salesmen were arrested in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for suspected links with Daesh. On July 4, 2017, a 25-year-old Bangladeshi linked to JMB was arrested by the Malaysian Police. The expatriates’ exposure to radical ideologies emanating from the Arab world has brought a qualitative change in their approach, life-style and operational strategy. As a result, IS-style terror operations have been engineered or plotted in the country as well.

Moreover, terror financing by Bangladeshi expatriates is another area that remains a matter of urgent concern. It is estimated that about USD 7 billion comes to the country every year via the “hundi” system – an alternative transfer method akin to the “hawala” network that persists in West and South Asia. Investigations into the financial operations of the terrorist groups such as JMB and HUJI-B demonstrate that a sizeable proportion of their funding comes through this hundi or hawala route. In July 2016, four Bangladeshi workers were convicted in Singapore for financing terrorism back home. Calling themselves the Islamic State in Bangladesh (ISB), the four had been planning attacks in Bangladesh to topple the Awami League (AL) Government. Their objectives were to form an Islamic state in Bangladesh and make it part of the so-called IS Caliphate.

On October 30, 2017, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal observed, “We maintain zero tolerance for terrorism and militancy. Since the Holey Artisan café attack, we carried out aggressive operations against the terrorists across the country to save the people. We have broken their backbone. They are no more a threat.” Earlier, on June 28, 2017, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina told Parliament “Our Government has always taken stern action against terrorism and militancy and would continue to curb the twin demons with an iron hand. There would be no place of terrorism and militancy on the soil of Bangladesh.”

The Sheikh Hasina Government hardened its resolve to root out terrorism from Bangladesh after the country suffered its worst terrorist attack on July 1, 2016. It has demonstrated the efficacy of determined and relentless action against terrorist formations over the past year and more. However, as terrorists adapt, exploiting new technologies and new tactics, the challenge is kept alive. Bangladesh’s “war on terror” may not end any time soon.

INDIA

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Chhattisgarh: Bijapur: Diminishing Heartland
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 12, 2017, three Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres were killed in an encounter with the Security Forces (SFs) near Mankeli village under the Bijapur Police Station limits in Bijapur District. SF personnel who were on an anti-Maoist operation in the area came under Maoist fire and an encounter ensued. SFs recovered bodies of three Maoists, along with three weapons, including one INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifle, and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) from the encounter site.

On September 4, 2017, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an encounter between SFs and CPI-Maoist cadres in Bijapur District. SFs recovered one AK-47 rifle, magazines and a wireless set, along with other material from the encounter site.

Earlier, on June 25, 2017, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed during an anti-Maoist operation in the Basaguda Forest near Pediya village under Basaguda Police Station limits in Bijapur District. The body of the Maoist was recovered from the encounter site.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 16 Maoists have been killed in Bijapur District thus far in 2017 (data till November 19, 2017). During the corresponding period in 2016, 28 Maoists had been killed. A total of 33 Maoists were killed through 2016. There were at least 17 Maoist fatalities in 2015, 20 in 2014, 11 in 2013, 27 in 2012, 14 in 2011, 31 in 2010, 41 in 2009, 44 in 2008, and 10 in 2007.  Thus, a total of 264 Maoists have been eliminated since the creation of the District on May 11, 2007.

Out of 31 Districts across seven States from where Maoist fatalities have been recorded in the current year, Bijapur was ranked 2^nd, with 16 Maoist fatalities; preceded by Narayanpur (Chhattisgarh) with 21 Maoist fatalities (data till November 19, 2017).    

Moreover, according to SATP data, at least 49 Maoists have been arrested in Bijapur District in 2017 (data till November 19, 2017). During the corresponding period in 2016, 41 Maoists had been arrested, and a total of 72 through 2016. Most recently, on November 3, 2017, four Maoists were arrested following an encounter between SFs and the rebels in Bijapur District.

Mounting SF pressure also led to the surrender of 11 Maoists in 2017 (data till November 19, 2017), according to SATP data. During the corresponding period in 2016, 79 Maoists had surrendered, and a total of 85 through 2016. Significantly, on July 27, 2017, six Maoists, including, Hapka Payku (25), a 'section commander' carrying a reward of INR 300,000 on his head, surrendered in Bijapur District, citing disappointment with the "hollow" Maoist ideology.

Meanwhile, SFs suffered seven losses in the District in the current year (data till November 19, 2017). During the corresponding period of the preceding year, SFs had recorded nine losses. There was no further loss in this category in the remaining period of 2016. Thus, SFs secured a significantly positive kill ratio in these two years – 1:3.66 in 2016 and 1: 2.28 in 2017 (data till November 19 for both years), the two best kill ratios recorded in favour of SFs in the District. Earlier ratios in favour of SFs were recorded in 2008 - 1: 2.2; 2009 - 1:2.41; 2010 - 1:2.41; 2012 - 1:2.41; 2013 - 1:2.41; 2014 - 1:2.41; and 2015 - 1:2.41. On the contrary, in 2007 and 2011, the Maoists got the better of SFs, with ratios at 2.3:1 and 1.14:1, respectively. The situation on the ground has remained in favour of SFs since 2012.

The current year has also recorded the lowest number of civilian fatalities recorded since 2007. According to SATP data, at least three civilians were killed in Bijapur District in 2017 (data till November 19, 2017), as against four such fatalities recorded during the corresponding period in 2016. Fatalities in this category had been decreasing, on year on year basis, since 2015, and reached their lowest at six in 2016. A maximum of 28 civilian fatalities were recorded in 2009.

Bijapur, one of the twenty seven Districts of Chhattisgarh, was carved out of Dantewada as a separate District on March 11, 2007. With a population of 255,230 (Census 2011), Bijapur is spread over a geographical area of 6,562.48 square kilometres, of which around 1,848.07 square kilometres (28 per cent of its total area) is under forest cover. Located in the extreme south-west part of the State, Bijapur shares its boundary with the Maoist-afflicted Narayanpur District to the North; Bastar to the North-east; Dantewada to the east; Karimnagar, Warangal and Khammam Districts of Telangana on the south; and Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra on the West. Difficult terrain and natural protection, proximity with other Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-affected Districts and States (Telangana and Maharashtra), and its location partly within the densely forested Abujhmad area (which spreads over 3,900 square kilometres in Chhattisgarh), gives Bijapur immense ‘geo-strategic importance’ from a Maoist perspective.

Worse, the District is extremely backward and impoverished. According to the Census 2011, Bijapur’s per capita income of INR 12,088 is extremely low in comparison to the State average of INR 28,263 – which itself is abysmally low (against an all-India average is 38,005). Bijapur has a significantly low literacy rate of 37.07 per cent, only better than Dantewada, with 34.38 per cent. Chhattisgarh’s overall literacy rate was 70.28 per cent, and the all-India literacy rate was 73 per cent. Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) at the upper primary level in Bijapur was 28.4 per cent, much lower than the State’s NER of 67.8 per cent.

Indeed, Bijapur is ranked 3^rd among the worst affected, out of the 139 Maoist-affected Districts in the country, in terms of fatalities recorded in such violence since its formation in 2007. Bijapur falls under the troubled Bastar Division of Chhattisgarh, which remains the principal challenge for the State, was also listed among the eight worst affected LWE Districts in Chhattisgarh and the 35 worst-affected Districts identified by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) in 2010.

Despite SF successes in bringing significant improvement in the security situation, consequently, the problem lingers. The Maoists are hell bent on regaining their hold in the region. Indeed, an alert was issued by intelligence agencies on May 18, 2017, stating that over 100 armed guerrillas of CPI-Maoist from Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha have sneaked into south Bastar and were spotted in the jungles of Bijapur-Sukma region. Intelligence sources disclosed that CPI-Maoist cadres were planning a repeat of the April 24, 2017, Sukma attack, in which 25 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) troopers were killed.

While fatalities in Maoist-linked violence have witnessed a sharp decline in the District (as is the case in the State and the country at large), other parameters of violence in the District remain more or less the same. According to the SATP database, at least 20 encounters between SFs and Maoists were reported in the District in the current year, as against 19 such encounters in the corresponding period of 2016, and 26 through 2016. Besides, there were at least nine incidents of seizure of arms and ammunition by SFs in 2017, during which huge caches were recovered. In 2016, during the corresponding period, there were 14 such incidents of recovery, and 16 through 2016. The Maoists have also continued to disrupt developmental works in the District. At least five incidents of disruption were reported in the District in the current year, as against two such incidents in the corresponding period of 2016 and no further such incidents in the remaining period of 2016.

Moreover, the rebels continue to threaten civilians, including the Government machinery. Most recently, Maoist banners and posters were recovered from the tehsildar’s (settlement officer) office in the Usur Block (administrative unit) and other areas of Bijapur District on November 17, 2017. In the poster reportedly signed by Madvi Hidma, the South Bastar Zonal Committee ‘secretary’, the Maoists threatened the Chhattisgarh Forest Minister Mahesh Gagda, the patwari (Government official responsible for land records) and tehsildar of Usur Block, accusing them of “anti-people” activities. The poster also declared that journalists like Sai Reddy, who misrepresent encounters on television or in newspapers would be killed. Significantly, Bijapur-based Sai Reddy was killed at Basaguda village in Bijapur District on December 6, 2013. D. M. Awasthi, Special Director General (SDG, Anti Naxal Operations), observed, “This is the first time in recent times that they have issued a written threat like this…”

A number of steps have already been taken to secure the region in particular and the State at large, though further corrective measures are still needed. On March 15, 2017, Chief Minister (CM) Raman Singh asserted, “The authorities are working on the socio-economic front in Bastar division and the results will be known soon.” He elaborated further that medical services were being expanded in Bijapur District under a ‘new innovative model’. In a major positive intervention, Ayyaj Tamboli, the District Collector of Bijapur, helped the District, which was facing acute doctor shortage, in filling most of the vacancies. According to Government statistics, there were 11 doctors in position in Bijapur as against 67 sanctioned post as on March 31, 2016, resulting in vacancies in 56 posts. Due to Tamboli’s intervention, vacancies dropped to 20 on October 9, 2016. Moreover, Tamboli first upgraded the District Hospital, Bijapur, with funds available under the National Health Mission and the District Mineral Funds and brought in expertise and equipment with the help of the Public Health Foundation of India and the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF). The hospital was also equipped with a new Intensive Care Unit (ICU), two new operation theatres, a blood bank and a 50-bed maternal and child healthcare unit. Nevertheless, medical facilities outside the District Headquarters are negligible to non-existent.

Further, on November 3, 2017, the State Government approved one Kendriya Vidyalaya and one Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalaya (JNV) for Bijapur, in its effort to improve the education infrastructure. Earlier, on July 14, 2017, School Education Minister Kedar Kashyap had stated that, on the directive of the Chief Minister, a master plan was on the anvil to make education accessible to the depressed castes and classes in 15 development blocks in 13 Districts, including Bijapur.

On November 3, 2017, Chief Minister Raman Singh stated that construction of roads in LWE-affected regions had gradually increased over the preceding three years and that, in the current year, the State had constructed 400 kilometres of new road in Sukma, Bijapur, Narayanpur and Dantewada. On October 22, 2017, Public Works Department (PWD) Minister Rajesh Munat disclosed that the Chhattisgarh Government was getting a Detailed Project Report (DPR) prepared for construction of bridges under the Centre’s Road Requirement Plan (RRP) Phase-II scheme in five insurgency infested Districts of the Bastar region: Bijapur, Bastar, Sukma, Dantewada and Kanker.

Maoist violence has declined in Bijapur, as is the case in Chhattisgarh at large as well as India. However, Maoist strongholds still remain a concern. Bijapur, which falls under the formidable Abujhmad region and the troubled Bastar Division remains a challenge.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

INDIA (Total)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

PAKISTAN (Total)