| |
SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 16, No. 17, October 23, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
J&K:
Embryonic Investigations
Ajit
Kumar Singh
Research Fellow; Institute for Conflict Management
On October
17, 2017, a National Investigation Agency (NIA) Court
in Delhi extended till November 15, 2017, the judicial
custody of seven Kashmiri separatists arrested on July
24, 2017, in connection with the NIA case for funding
terrorist organisations in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). These
arrested separatists included Altaf Ahmad Shah Funtoosh
Geelani, Ayaz Akbar Khandey, Raja Mehrajuddin Kalwal,
Peer Saifullah, Aftab Hilali Shah aka Shahid-ul-Islam,
Nayeem Khan and Farooq Ahmad Dar aka Bitta Karate.
Farooq Ahmad Dar was arrested in New Delhi and the other
accused persons were arrested from Srinagar, the summer
capital of J&K. Altaf Ahmad Shah Funtoosh Geelani is the
son-in-law of All Parties Hurriyat Conference-Geelani
(APHC-G)
chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Aftab Hilali Shah is a
close aide of APHC-Mirwaiz (APHC-M) chairman Mirwaiz Umar
Farooq. Ayaz Akbar Khandey is the spokesperson for the
APHC-G.
According
to the NIA website, the investigative agency had registered
the case (No. RC-10/2017/NIA/DLI) on May 30, 2017, against
the,
…separatist
and secessionist leaders, including the members/cadres
of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, who have
been acting in connivance with active militants
of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM),
Dukhtarane Millat, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)
and other terrorist organizations/associations and
gangs for raising, receiving and collecting funds
through various illegal means, including hawala
(illegal transfer of money), for funding separatist
and terrorist activities in J&K and for causing
disruption in Kashmir Valley by way of pelting stones
on the security forces, burning schools, damaging
public property and waging war against India. In
pursuance of this FIR, the National Investigation
Agency had conducted widespread searches on the
suspected persons in Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi and
Haryana and incriminating documents, electronic
devices, cash and other valuables worth crores were
unearthed during those searches.
|
Earlier,
on May 19, 2017, NIA had has registered a Preliminary
Enquiry (PE) into the
…funding
of Hurriyat leaders namely Syed Ali Shah Geelani,
Naeem Khan, Farooq Ahmed Dar, Gazi Javed Baba and
others in J&K by Hafiz Muhammed Saeed and other
Pakistan based terrorists and agencies to carry
out subversive activities in Kashmir and for damaging
public property, stone pelting on the security forces,
burning of schools and other Government establishments.
|
The PE
was registered subsequent to NIA taking into cognizance
news item related to the recording of
conversations
between the reporter and leaders of the separatist groups
operating in Kashmir valley, by India Today TV, on May
15, 2017, in this regard.
Meanwhile,
the NIA Court also extended, till November 15, 2017, the
judicial custody of businessman Zahoor Ahmad Shah Watali,
arrested in connection with the same case on August 17,
2017. Watali's arrest followed the searches conducted
by the NIA on the previous day (August 16) at multiple
locations in Srinagar, Handwara, Kupwara and Baramulla,
belonging to the relatives and employees of Zahoor Watali.
The searches had unearthed, according to the NIA, highly
incriminating material pertaining to receipt of funds
by Zahoor Watali from foreign sources and its further
distribution to the terrorists and separatists in the
Kashmir Valley for anti-India activities.
The premier
investigating agency (NIA) has also registered three other
separate cases related to terror funding since September
2011. These include:
Illegal
Transfer of funds in large scale from Pakistan to India
through import of California Almonds (RC-17/2016/NIA/DLI):
The case was registered by NIA on December 16, 2016, following
the Central Government receiving information that
…a
large scale transfer of funds from Pakistan to India
through the import of California Almonds (badam
giri) via the cross-LoC [Line of Control] Trade
Facilitation Centers (TFCs) located at Salamabad,
Uri, District Baramulla and Chakkan-Da-Bag, District
Poonch has taken place. This is in violation of
the policy of the prohibition of trade in 'third-party
foreign goods' through this mechanism and that these
funds are being used for fomenting terrorism/separatism
in Jammu and Kashmir.
|
Terror
Funding in Jammu & Kashmir (RC-12/2011/NIA/DLI): The case
was registered by NIA on November 14, 2011. It was alleged
that
Ghulam
Nabi Lone, a distributor of funds for the HM and
LeT sent about Rs.4 lakhs [INR 400,000] to Habibullah
Lone through Irshad Ahmad Lone during the months
of May and June, 2011 for illegally financing HM
and LeT cadres. The fund was distributed through
various conduits in Delhi and other states to the
cadres of HM and LeT and used for anti-national
and subversive activities".
|
Terror
Funding in J&K through Hawala Transaction (RC-06/2011/NIA/DLI):
The case was registered by NIA on September 7, 2011. The
case deals with the information that the "money from
Pakistan is being sent to Jammu & Kashmir through
hawala channels via Delhi suspected to be used
in funding terrorism and secessionist activities. The
money so supplied might have been provided to the terrorist
and their sympathizers’ active in J&K".
Ironically,
despite investigation for over six years during which
a charge sheet (dated July 20, 2011) and a supplementary
charge sheet (dated December 22, 2011) were filed in these
cases, NIA stated that "there has been no considerable
progress in the further investigation of the case after
the filing of the supplementary charge sheet" in
RC-06/2011/NIA/DLI and the case is still under investigation.
Moreover, two of the six charge sheeted people still remain
absconding; the other four are under judicial custody.
More appallingly,
in the terror funding case (RC-12/2011/NIA/DLI) NIA completed
and filed a final report in the court of Special Judge,
NIA, New Delhi, on March 30, 2013. Subsequently, on September
6, 2104, the court accepted the closure report filed by
NIA. Though three people – Gulam Nabi Lone, Habibullah
Lone and Irshad Ahmed Lone – were accused, no charge sheet
was filed during the entire period of investigation.
Further,
no arrest has been made in the Illegal Transfer of funds
case (RC-17/2016/NIA/DLI) and the case is still under
investigation, though over 10 months have passed. In the
case against secessionist and separatist leaders (RC-10/2017/NIA/DLI),
eight people (mentioned above) have been arrested; however,
no charge sheet has been filed despite the passage of
over four months since registration of the case. However,
searches were conducted at 27 locations in Delhi and Srinagar
by the NIA teams on September 6, 2017, during which "cash
amounting to approximately Rs. 2.20 Crores (22 million)
has been recovered besides incriminating documents pertaining
to financial transactions... The diaries pertaining to
contacts of hawala operators/ traders, ledger books containing
accounts of cross border LoC trade of various trading
companies have been recovered..."
On January
16, 2017, J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti had informed
the State Legislative Assembly that hawala money
was being used to fund 'terror' activities and violence
in the State and that 173 such cases had been registered
in the State since 2001. In a written reply in the Assembly,
she stated, "As per reports from CID [Criminal Investigation
Department] hawala channels are being used to fund
terror and violence in the State. Since 2001, 173 hawala
cases have been registered. Challans were issued in 90
of these. Of the total, 45 cases are under investigation,
while sanction is awaited in 23 cases. Nine cases were
"untraced" and six not admitted."
Other measures
to control the menace have also failed. Indeed, contradicting
the Central Government's claim that
after demonetization
terror funding had come down to zero, Mehbooba Mufti informed
the State Legislative Assembly on January 16, 2017, that,
"The State Government has not received any report
so far on effects of demonetization on the recent unrest
in the Valley.” In her written reply she had also disclosed
that no case had been registered with regard to Fake Indian
Currency Notes (FICNs) being used to fund violence during
the unrest. On November 14, 2016, a week after Prime Minister
Narendra Modi announced the scrapping of INR 500 and INR
1,000 notes, the then Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar
had claimed, “In the last few days after PM’s daring move,
there hasn’t been stone pelting on security forces. Earlier,
there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting (on security
forces in Kashmir) and Rs 1,000 for doing something else.
PM has brought terror funding to zero.” Interestingly,
the Central Government continues to push the same narrative,
without providing any specific details. Most recently,
Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley claimed that terror
funding had been ‘squeezed’ subsequent to demonetization.
It is,
however, kinetic measures that have had the most significant
impact on the trajectory of terrorism in J&K. Operation
All-Out launched in March 2017 in Kashmir Division
with the aim to ”ensure that Kashmir is freed from violence
and peace prevails”, has thus far resulted in the killing
of at least 152 terrorists (data till October 22, 2017)
in the region (Kashmir Division). Another two terrorists
were killed in Jammu Division – one each in Poonch and
Jammu Districts – during the same period. The State Director-General
of Police S. P. Vaid, however, conceded that these operational
successes must be backed by several other measures. Stopping
terror funding is indeed one such necessary measure. Regrettably,
however, all existing initiatives to stop such flow of
funds have failed to produce desired results, so far.
Given the
past record, recent developments including action by NIA,
can at best be seen as tentative moves in the right direction
and nothing more. It would require superlative work from
NIA to take the cases which are still under investigation
to any final conclusion. Most prominently in, NIA Case
No RC-10/2017/NIA/DLI, where top separatist leaders are
under scanner, will require tremendous focus, not only
on the part of the investigative agency but, even more
importantly, unwavering political will. Terrorist funding
by the separatist leadership has long been an open secret
in J&K, but enforcement and investigative agencies
have always been denied the mandate to take effective
action. The NIA can achieve nothing unless there is unvarying
support from the political class, both at the Centre and
the State. Unfortunately, such support has been conspicuous
in its absence within a political leadership manifestly
bereft of political sagacity.
|
On
Course Again
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On October
21, 2017, 40 Islamic State (IS, formerly, Islamic State
of Iraq and al Sham, also Daesh) terrorists, including
two trainers and 38 suicide bombers, were killed in a
deadly United States (US) airstrike targeting a training
camp for the suicide bombers in the Achin District of
eastern Nangarhar Province. Police identified the two
Daesh trainers killed in the attack as Qari Quran and
Qari Fida. A significant cache of weapons, ammunition
and explosives belonging to the terror group were also
destroyed in the airstrike.
On October
20, 2017, a key leader of Daesh identified as Abu Tahir
Al-Bajawari and nine other terrorists were killed in a
US drone strike in the Achin District of eastern Nangarhar
Province.
On October
18, 2017, 23 Daesh terrorists were killed in the airstrikes
conducted by US Forces in the Nazian and Achin Districts
of eastern Nangarhar Province. Weapons, ammunition, and
explosives were also destroyed in the airstrikes.
On October
12, 2017, five Taliban were killed in airstrikes in the
Mirza Olang area of Sayad District in northern Sar-e-Pul
Province. A local leader of the group identified as Mullah
Syed Ahmad was among those killed. At least two Taliban
were critically wounded in the airstrikes.
On October
10, 2017, eight Taliban were killed and several others
wounded in airstrikes in the Arghistan District of Badakhshan
Province. Weapons, ammunition, and explosives were also
destroyed in the airstrikes.
On October
7, 2017, seven Taliban were killed and 11 were wounded
in an airstrike targeting a Taliban compound in the Dara-e-Alf
Safi area of northern Sar-e-Pul Province.
On October
3, 2017, 11 Daesh terrorists were killed in airstrikes
conducted by US Forces in the Achin District of eastern
Nangarhar Province. Some weapons and ammunition were also
destroyed in the airstrikes.
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal
(SATP), 974 terrorists have been killed across Afghanistan
in the 61 days since the announcement of US President
Donald Trump’s new “South
Asia strategy on August 22, 2017
(data till October 22, 2017).
Crucially,
the US has been conducting airstrikes on the Pakistan
side as well. In the first US drone strike after
the announcement of the new US strategy for Afghanistan
and South Asia, three Afghan Taliban members were killed
and another two were wounded on September 16, 2017,
in an airstrike in the tribal regions of Kurram Agency
in Pakistan, close to the Durand Line with Afghanistan.
In the second air assault by US Forces, 20 terrorists
were killed on October 16, 2017, in a series of
deadly airstrikes targeting a compound of the Haqqani
terrorist network in the Kurram Agency.
Hours after
the October 16 US airstrike, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister
Khawaja Asif called on the US to stop the airstrikes.
Earlier, amid persistent US pressures on Pakistan regarding
terrorist safe havens on its soil that are often blamed
for major attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s Prime Minister
Shahid Khaqan Abbasi claimed on September 12, 2017, that
Pakistan does not provide safe havens to terror groups.
However, Afghan officials and US authorities have long
insisted that the leadership councils of the Taliban and
Haqqani terrorist networks are based in key cities of
Pakistan, where they enjoy freedom of action.
The US
has also approved contracts worth billions for the Afghan
National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). On August
28, 2017, the US Department of Defense awarded a contract
worth around $727 million in support of the Afghan Air
Force and Special Mission Wing in ongoing efforts to boost
the ANDSF capabilities. On September 1, 2017, the US Department
of Defense approved another contract for the Afghan Air
Force worth $69.3 million, for contractual action for
the Afghanistan Air Force AC-208 armed intelligence surveillance
and reconnaissance aircraft requirements. On September
5, 2017, the US Department of Defense awarded a new contract
for the Afghan Air Force worth more than $1.3 billion
for procurement of an estimated quantity of 150 MD 530F
aircraft and required production support services to include
program management, delivery support, pilot training and
maintenance.
Significantly,
on September 18, 2017, as part of a planned replacement
of its ageing fleet of Russian-made Mi-17 helicopters,
four US-made UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters were delivered
to the Afghan Air Force. The US plans to supply a total
of 159 Black Hawks to Afghanistan in the coming years
to boost its capacity. The Afghan Air Force is considered
one of the best-performing components of ANDSF. According
to a July 2017 report by the Special Inspector General
for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), a U.S. Congressional
watchdog, 19 of the Afghan Air Force’s 46-strong Mi-17
fleet were unusable because they were undergoing overhaul
or repair.
Reacting
to the handover of the first batch of the UH-60 Black
Hawk helicopters to the Afghan Air Force, Taliban group
spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid declared, October 8, 2017,
“US commander & Ashraf Ghani (the Afghan President)
must remember that our fight is not based on technology
but is an ideologically motivated fight. When Soviet and
Communist government fell, they left hundreds of aircraft
in airbases. US also tested hundreds of various aircraft
here 16 years ago. Learn from history; your aircraft will
strengthen us and shall work for our interests and goals
just like your Humvee and Ford Ranger trucks.”
On July
11, 2017, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, asserted that
Pakistan needs to stop interfering in Afghanistan’s internal
affairs and instead cooperate with the National Unity
Government (NUG), and observed, “The factory of interference
must be closed in Afghanistan. In establishing peace,
at first we want peace with Pakistan; peace with the Taliban
comes next.” Pakistan, however, rejected the calls
for the elimination of terror sanctuaries by Kabul and
Washington with Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General
Qamar Javed Bajwa declaring, on September 7, 2017, “We
cannot fight Afghanistan’s war in Pakistan.” The groups
that have long been nurtured in Pakistan remain intact,
despite growing international pressures. Significantly,
on September 29, 2017, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khawajah
Asif admitted that terrorist groups and its leaders, including
the Haqqanis had become ‘liabilities’ for Pakistan.
Meanwhile,
on September 19, 2017, speaking during the United Nations
General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, President Ghani observed,
“The Taliban and their backers cannot win militarily.
Only through political settlement can we achieve enduring
peace and I call upon all ranks of Taliban to engage in
an intra-Afghan dialogue.” Again, on October 8, 2017,
President Ghani called on the Taliban groups to renounce
violence and join the peace process, insisting that the
option lies with the group.
Notably,
the sixth meeting of Quadrilateral Coordination Group
(QCG) involving Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the US
was held at Muscat, Oman, on October 16, 2017. The Taliban
failed to attend the QCG, as the peace process broke down
after a fifth session in May 2016, when a US drone attack
killed
then Taliban Chief, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, while he was
traveling through the Pakistani Province of Balochistan.
The aim of QCG was for members to use their respective
influence on the Afghan Government and the Taliban to
nudge them to the negotiating table. The insurgents’ reluctance
to engage in peace talks with the Afghan Government and
Kabul’s strained relations with Islamabad had also hampered
previous QCG sessions from making any significant headway.
The first
meeting of the QCG had been held in Islamabad on January
11, 2016; the second in Kabul on January 18, 2016; the
third in Islamabad on February 6, 2016; the fourth in
Kabul on February 23, 2016; and the fifth in Islamabad,
on May 18, 2016.
Significantly,
on an unannounced visit, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the US Defense
Secretary James Mattis arrived in Kabul on September 27,
2017. Further, on October 18, 2017, the United States
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in his stark message
to the Taliban group declared, “We’ll be here as long
as it takes until you change your mind.”
However,
on October 7, 2017, the Taliban claimed that the group
was not tired of war, and since it was the US-led invasion
that toppled its regime, it called on the American Forces
to withdraw from the country. The statement further added
that the nation has neither become tired nor will become
tired of the war, and that morale was high.
It is difficult,
at this early stage, to assess whether Trump’s Afghan
strategy will actually achieve its promised victory. Nevertheless,
after years of accelerating withdrawals and phony declarations
about ending combat operations, Trump’s renewed commitment
to stay the course, add additional resources, take the
fight to the enemy, and end Pakistan’s double game, represents
a qualitative shift of potentially great importance. If
implemented aggressively, adjusted as necessary, and sustained
over time, there are improved chances that it may eventually
get Afghanistan where needs to go.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
October
16-22, 2017
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Bihar
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
7
|
Odisha
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
INDIA (Total)
|
0
|
4
|
8
|
12
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
0
|
8
|
1
|
9
|
FATA
|
0
|
2
|
20
|
22
|
Sindh
|
0
|
0
|
9
|
9
|
PAKISTAN
(Total)
|
0
|
10
|
30
|
40
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
| |