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SOUTH
ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 16, No. 12, September 18, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Unsettling
Stability
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate; Institute for Conflict Management
On September
6, 2017, remains of seven dead bodies were recovered from
a Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB)
hideout in the capital Dhaka city’s Darus Salam area after
the terrorists blew themselves up, ignoring the Rapid
Action Battalion’s (RAB’s) repeated calls to surrender.
A large quantity of bombs and bomb making materials, including
24 high-impact explosive devices, 60 improvised hand grenades,
70 chemical bombs, 15 kilograms of splinters, nine empty
cages, 20 kilograms of charcoal, and 1,500 pieces of igniting
cord were also recovered.
On August
27, 2017, a JMB terrorist was killed in an explosion while
making bombs at a house in the Kashor area of Mymensingh
District. Police recovered four bombs and more than eight
kilograms of gunpowder from the house. Of the four bombs,
two were pressure cooker bombs, each weighing around 2-2.5
kilograms, and two hand grenades.
On August
25, 2017, a Neo-JMB militant was killed in a gunfight
with the Police in Boalia village of Kushtia District.
Police recovered a foreign pistol, two bullets and three
sharp weapons from the spot.
On August
15, 2017, a Neo-JMB militant was killed by the Police
during an operation codenamed ‘Operation August Bite’
at a suspected hideout near the Square Hospital in Dhaka
city.
Indeed,
Security Forces (SFs) are continuing their unremitting
efforts against terrorist formations
in Bangladesh. According to partial data compiled by the
South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the Gulshan
Cafe attack on July 1, 2016, 103 Islamist
terrorists have been killed and another 1,284 arrested
across Bangladesh. Prominent among those killed were the
Neo-JMB leader and mastermind of the Gulshan Cafe attack,
Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury aka Shaykh Abu Ibrahim Al
Hanif aka Amir (30); the JMB ‘military commander’
for the northern region Khaled Hasan aka Badar
Mama (30); Neo-JMB ‘military commander’ Murad aka
Jahangir Alam aka Omar; JMB ‘regional commander’
Tulu Mollah (33); JMB ‘regional coordinator’ Abu Musa
aka Abujar; Neo-JMB ‘military chief’ Aminur Islam
aka Alam (23); Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh
(HuJI-B)
‘chief’ Mufti Abdul Hannan; and HUJI-B ‘regional commander’
Tajul Islam Mahmud aka Mama Hujur (46) (data till
September 17, 2017).
Claiming
that there will be no major militant attack in Bangladesh
at this moment, Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime
(CTTC) Chief Monirul Islam disclosed on August 8, 2017,
We've been able to successfully destroy the operational
capacity of the militants. The militants' operational
capacity increased last year, but they don't have
that capacity any more. We've destroyed it by carrying
out anti-militancy drives across the country. The
militants have no capacity to launch any more big
attack right now.
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Likewise,
Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) Commissioner Mohamad Asaduzzaman
Mia claimed, on August 16, 2017, that there was no threat
of any major terrorist attack or security risk in the
country, as the organizational capability of terrorist
formations such as Neo-JMB and Ansarullah Bangla Team
(ABT) had waned.
Further,
to boost the anti-terrorism drives, CTTC Additional Deputy
Commissioner Mohammad Sanowar Hossain on August 11, 2017,
noted, bomb disposal robots were increasingly being introduced
to deal with explosives:
We have been using people instead of bomb disposal
robots, which was very risky. The robots will be
controllable at a safe distance from the operation
sites. They can move swiftly on land and waterways,
and can blast open the entrances of locked or barricaded
militant hideouts. The robots can send instant pictures
of 360-degree views of the hideout. After getting
all the information from the robots, the main CTTC
team will begin the operation. The robots will be
imported from the United States at an estimated
cost of BDT 1 crore, and will lead from the front
of the CTTC team during anti-militant operations.
The procedure of procurement has already begun.
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Notably,
Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan, talking to reporters after
a meeting of the National Committee on Militancy, Resistance
and Prevention at his Ministry on August 21, 2017, observed
that intelligence agencies were closely monitoring Facebook,
Twitter, Whatsapp and other social media
to control all sorts of cyber based militant activities.
Separately, Chittagong Metropolitan Police (CMP) officials
on September 9, 2017, disclosed that, as with the Dhaka
Metropolitan Police (DMP), CPM was going to introduce
a full-fledged counter terrorism (CT) unit for the Chittagong
region with the aim to expedite the ongoing drives against
terrorists and terrorism-related activities. CMP officials
said that forming a full-fledged CT unit was a timely
move, as Chittagong was geographically vulnerable to terrorism.
However,
a new security dilemma for Bangladesh is the problem created
by Rohingya refugees. At least 74,000 Rohingyas crossed
the border into Bangladesh after Myanmar began a military
crackdown in northern Rakhine State. The crackdown followed
attacks on border guards on October 9, 2016, in which
nine Myanmar Policemen were killed and four were injured
when hundreds of armed Rohingya men with knives, slingshots
and rifles attacked three separate police posts along
the Rakhine border with Bangladesh. Highlighting the Rohingya
crisis as an important issue, Foreign Minister Abul Hassan
Mahmood Ali stated in the Parliament on June 15, 2017,
"Twenty to 25 percent people in Cox’s Bazar are now
Rakhine Muslims. Such huge presence of Rakhine Muslims
in the area will pose a threat to the national security
in future. The Rakhine people have been engaged in various
misdeeds, including drug smuggling on bordering areas
and arms and human trafficking. They've become a national
security concern for Bangladesh." The Minister further
noted that some 33,000 Rohingyas, registered as refugees,
were living in two camps run by the United Nations High
Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) in Cox's Bazar. It is
estimated that some three to four hundred thousand unregistered
Myanmar citizens (Rohingyas) have been staying in five
Bangladeshi Districts, including Cox's Bazar.
A second
wave of refugees swept in after the incident of August
25, 2017, in which hundreds of Arakan Rohingya Salvation
Army (ARSA) insurgents armed with machetes and rifles
attacked 30 security posts in the Rakhine State, killing
12 Policemen, a soldier and an immigration officer. In
response, the military unleashed what it called "clearance
operations" to root out the insurgents. On September
14, 2017, the United Nations International Children's
Emergency Fund (UNICEF) claimed that up to 400,000 Rohingya
had fled Myanmar for Bangladesh since August 25, 2017,
with thousands more arriving every day. Separately, UNHCR
Assistant High Commissioner George Okoth-Obbo and International
Organization for Migration (IOM) Director Mohammed Abdiker
Mohamud in a joint press conference held in Dhaka on September
14, 2017, stated, “The Rohingya influx towards Bangladesh
may reach 10 lakh (One million) this year if the refugees
fleeing violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine State continues.”
Denouncing
Myanmar for the atrocities and calling upon the international
community to mount intensified pressure on Naypyidaw to
stop the atrocities and take back the refugees, Bangladesh
Parliament on September 11, 2017, passed a resolution:
A handful of people of a shadow group had staged
the attack which we (Bangladesh) also condemned,
but should the entire community of one million populations
be punished for that?
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Further,
in a statement issued on September 13, 2017, the 15-member
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) acknowledged the
initial attacks on Myanmar Security Forces, but "condemned
the subsequent violence," and called for "immediate
steps to end the violence in Rakhine, de-escalate the
situation, re-establish law and order, and ensure the
protection of civilians.”
Disturbingly,
terrorist outfits are looking to cash in on the Rohingya
crisis. The terrorist formations both at home and abroad
are fishing in troubled waters, trying to provoke their
followers to go to Myanmar and fight the country’s military
in the name of ‘protecting Islam’ and saving the Rohingya
people who face brutality at the hands of the Myanmar
Army. On September 3, 2017, in a video message released
by al Qaeda’s al-Malahem Media Foundation, Khaled Batarfi
called on Muslims in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and
Malaysia to support their Rohingya Muslim brethren against
the “enemies of Allah.” Similarly, on September 12, 2017,
Pakistan based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) Chief Maulana Masood
Azhar declared, “All of us must do whatever we can for
the Myanmar Muslims. Just say your prayers and get up
to help them. You don’t need to show off what you are
doing: just do it, and never stop." On the home front,
Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) Secretary General Junaid Babunagari
issuing an ultimatum on September 9, 2017, threatened
to siege of the Myanmar Embassy at Dhaka on September
19, if the atrocities against Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine
state of Myanmar continued. Similarly, Hizb-ut-Tahrir,
pasted posters on the street walls in Dhaka, Chittagong
and other cities of Bangladesh, condemning the oppression
on Rohingyas and urging countrymen to raise their voice.
Bangladesh
has taken giant
strides against terrorism and Islamist
extremism. However, the scope for a coalition of terrorists
with the radicalized elements among the Rohingyas who
have been forced across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border
could create new headaches for authorities. The Rohingya
crisis is no longer only a humanitarian calamity but a
potential threat to the internal stability and security
of Bangladesh as well.
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Manipur:
Violent Highlands
Giriraj
Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Suspected
militants of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak
Muivah (NSCN-IM)
attacked a combined team of the banned terror outfit People’s
Liberation Army (PLA)
and the Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) at Makan village
in Kamjong District near Border Pillar No, 8 along the
Indo-Myanmar border, on September 12, 2017. NSCN-IM cadres
killed five militants of the rival groups, identified
as PLA ‘sergeant major’ Richard aka Wareppam Dinesh,
PLA ‘sergeant’ Lalloi aka Khundrakpam Sunil, PLA
‘private’ Nanao aka Moirangthem Tomba, PLA ‘private’
Sinthouba aka Konjengbam Shyamsundar and MNPF cadre
Raikham Jajo aka Nimai Jazo. The NSCN-IM militants
took away the weapons of their slain rivals.
Dead bodies
of four suspected Hmar Peoples' Convention- Democratic
(HPC-D)
cadres were recovered from Barak River. While two bodies
were recovered on June 26, 2017, another two bodies were
recovered on June 27, 2017. According to reports, the
deceased were shot dead by their fellow cadres at an unspecified
place in Pherzawl District, on an undisclosed date, for
their alleged involvement in a robbery incident which
had taken place in the night of June 21, 2017, at Sivapukar
in Pherzawl District.
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), at least 44 fatalities, including 19
civilians, six Security Force (SF) personnel, and 19 militants,
have been reported from across Manipur in 2017 (data till
September 17, 2017). The 10 Hill Districts accounted for
39 fatalities (15 civilians, five SF personnel and 19
militants) constituting 88.63 per cent of the total. Manipur
comprises 16 Districts – 10 in the Hills, and six in the
Valley region.
In the
corresponding period of 2016, the State had recorded at
least 27 fatalities, including 12 civilians, eight SF
personnel, and seven militants. The five Hill Districts
accounted for 17 of these fatalities (four civilians,
seven SFs and six militants), i.e. 62.96 per cent of the
total. Through 2016, the State recorded at least 33 fatalities;
23 (69.96 percent) in the 10 Hill Districts.
On December
8, 2016, the pre-existing five Hill Districts were bifurcated
and new Districts were formed. Tamenglong District was
divided into the Noney and Tamenglong; Churachandpur into
Pherzawl and Churachandpur; Chandel into Tengnoupal and
Chandel; Ukhrul into Kamjong and Ukhrul; and Senapati
into Kangpokpi and Senapati. In Valley, two Districts
- Imphal East and Thoubal - were bifurcated: Imphal East
into Imphal East and Jiribam; Thoubal into Thoubal and
Kakching. The remaining two Valley Districts are Bishenpur
and Imphal West.
Significantly,
while overall fatalities in the State, on year on year
basis, are broadly following a declining
trend since 2010, although with sharp
spikes in 2012 and 2015, the share of violence in the
Hill Districts has been
increasing.
In the
volatile Hill areas, there are now apprehensions of further
danger. Reports indicate that the minority Rohingya Muslims
under threat of Government Forces in Myanmar’s Rakhine
State, could attempt to sneak into Manipur’s Hill areas.
Chief Minister N. Biren Singh on September 9, 2017, thus
observed, “The international border with Myanmar is porous
and all steps have been taken to check any attempt to
sneak into Manipur.” Five out of the 10 Hill Districts
– Ukhrul, Churachandpur, Chandel, Tengnoupal and Kamjong
– fall along the Indo-Myanmar border. Two (Churachandpur
and Chandel) of these have contiguous border with Myanmar’s
Chin State, which shares it borders with the Rakhine State.
No District in Valley has contiguous borders with Myanmar.
The trouble
in the Rakhine State escalated dramatically on August
25, 2017, when Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) militants
wielding sticks, knives and crude bombs carried out coordinated
attacks on 30 Police Posts and an Army Base – killing
one soldier, 10 Policemen, and one immigration officer.
Subsequently, the military launched a counter-offensive
and media reports indicate that at least 400 people, including
at least 59 militants, have been killed since then, and
nearly 380,000 Rohingyas have fled into Bangladesh.
Though
there are no confirmed reports about the number of Rohingyas
residing in Manipur, Chief Minister N. Biren Singh reportedly
stated, on September 13, 2017, that there were at least
22 inmates from Myanmar, including 10 Rohingyas, in the
Sajiwa Central Jail in Imphal East District, even after
their jail terms had expired (date not specified). Reports
stated that nine of the 10 imprisoned Rohingyas have been
in prison since 2012, and one since 2014.
Any influx
of Rohingya Muslims could further destabilize the situation
in Manipur at a time when a Joint Committee on the Inner-Line
Permit System (JCILPS), a civil society group, on September
4, 2017, had renewed the call for the Inner Line Permit
(ILP) system to check the entry of “outsiders” into the
State. JCILPS had first raised the demand for the ILP
system in 2012.
Manipur
has experienced the presence of armed Islamist militant
outfits in past, though these secured minimal ‘success’.
The People’s United Liberation Front (PULF),
founded in 1993, was the most prominent among these. Though
the group remains active, the last incident of violence
it was found to be involved in was way back in 2013. On
March 23, 2013, suspected PULF militants had set ablaze
a private truck in the Yairipok area of Thoubal District.
The truck owner P. Jiban Singh (32) testified that PULF
militants had demanded money some months earlier. The
militants hijacked the truck, which was en route
to Machi village from Yairipok, on March 22, and the driver
was let off. Other lesser known Islamic groups that once
operated in Manipur include the Islamic
Revolutionary Front (IRF), Islamic National Front (INF),
United Islamic Liberation Army (UILA), and United Islamic
Revolutionary Army (UIRA). Significantly, most of these
groups were under SFs radar again in the aftermath of
ethnic clashes between Bodos
and Muslims in the Bodoland Territorial
Administrated Districts (BTAD) of Assam and the adjoining
District of Dhubri (also in Assam) in July 2012, in which
at least 80 persons were killed. At that time, the Union
Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), according to a August
7, 2012, report, had prepared a list of at least 19 Islamist
outfits – 14 in Assam and five in Manipur – for their
suspected involvement in violence. The five Manipur based
groups included – PULF, IRF, INF, UILA, and UIRA, listed
above.
Reports
indicate that some measures to check any future influx
have already been initiated. The media cited an unnamed
official source on September 9, 2017, as stating, "The
Police Headquarters alerted the Superintendent of Police
of the border Districts two days ago, asking them to be
on strict vigil to check influx of displaced Rohingya
Muslims into Manipur. Police teams, led by respective
Sub-divisional Police Officers and officers-in-charge
of Police Stations, have been patrolling the border round-the-clock."
Reports also indicated that 46 suspected illegal migrants
(not Rohingyas) were detained in the State between September
10, 2017, and September 13, 2017.
Tight vigil
along the Indo- Myanmar border and sustained action against
surviving militant formations would be necessary to deal
with the evolving situation in Manipur, particularly in
the Hill Regions.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
September 11-17, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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INDIA
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Manipur
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0
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0
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5
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5
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Jammu and
Kashmir
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0
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0
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4
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4
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Left-Wing
Extremism
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Chhattisgarh
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1
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0
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0
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1
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Jharkhand
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0
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0
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2
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2
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Maharashtra
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0
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0
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1
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1
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INDIA (Total)
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1
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0
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12
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13
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PAKISTAN
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Balochistan
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1
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0
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0
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1
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FATA
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1
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4
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3
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8
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KP
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3
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0
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0
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3
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PAKISTAN
(Total)
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5
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4
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3
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12
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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