SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 9, August 29, 2016

AFGHANISTAN	PAKISTAN	USA

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Violent Surge
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

At least 13 persons– seven students, one professor, two security guards of the University, and three Security Force (SF) personnel – were killed and another 45 persons, including 36 students and staff members and nine SF personnel, were injured when terrorists carried out an attack targeting the well guarded American University of Afghanistan in capital Kabul. The attack, which commenced at 18:30 AST [Afghanistan Standard Time] on August 24, 2016, after the attackers exploded a car bomb at a University entry gate, stormed into the University complex and opened gunfire, lasted for almost 10 hours. The SFs eliminated two terrorists, bringing an end to the attack. There were about 750 students in the University compound at the time of the attack. According to reports, the attackers had made their way past the University’s armed guards and watchtowers, lobbing grenades and checking out their maps.

Significantly, over a fortnight earlier, on August 7, 2016, two professors of the same university – an American and an Australian – were abducted at a gun point from near the University campus. Their whereabouts are still unknown.

No terror outfit has so far claimed responsibility for either incident.

On July 23, 2016, at least 80 people, mostly civilians, were killed and another 231 were injured in a suicide attack that targeted Hazara Shias sitting on a protest demonstration in Kabul. The protestors were demanding that the Afghan Government change its decision to reroute the 500-kilovolt TUTAP (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan) power line. The Government had reportedly decided to re-route the power line, which was originally set to pass through the Bamiyan Province, home to the Hazara community, through Salang in Parwan Province, arguing that it would speed up the project and save millions of dollars. Worryingly, the Islamic State (IS) which was hitherto largely confined to the eastern province of Nangarhar, claimed responsibly for the attack, indicating possibilities of a dangerous spread of its influence in a country which is already amidst turmoil created by the Taliban and its affiliates. The turf war between IS and the Taliban, which had been limited to the Nangarhar Province, is expected to spread into other areas, resulting in more violence.

The midyear report on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict in Afghanistan for 2016, prepared by the Human Rights Unit of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), which covers the period from January 1 to June 30, published on July 25, 2016, indicates that at least 5,166 civilians suffered casualties – 1,601 deaths and 3,565 injuries – during this period. It is the highest number of such casualties recorded during the first six months of a year since 2009, when UNAMA began systematically documenting civilian casualties. During the corresponding period of 2015, at least 4,982 persons had suffered casualties – 1615 deaths and 3,367 injured. More worryingly, out of 5,166 casualties recorded in 2016, at least 1,509 were children (388 dead and 1,121 injured) – a figure the UN Human Rights Chief described as “alarming and shameful,” particularly as it represents the highest numbers of children killed or wounded in a six-month period since 2009.

Moreover, reports indicate that fatalities among the Afghan National Defense Security Force (ANDSF) personnel have also increased sharply. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) in its Quarterly report (April 30, 2016) submitted to the United States Congress stated that at least 6,637 personnel were killed and another 12,471 were injured through 2015. The report added that, in the first two months of 2016, an additional 820 ANDSF personnel were killed and 1,389 were wounded.

On July 28, 2016, Gen. John Nicholson, Commander Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan, without disclosing exact figures, stated that the number of ANDSF personnel killed till that time in 2016 was about 20 per cent higher than during the same period of the preceding year. Significantly, ANDSF assumed full security responsibility at the end of 2014, when the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission was completed. ISAF has lost a total of 3,520 personnel, including 2,384 American soldiers, since the beginning of the operation in 2001.

Though there are no systematic estimates of the number of insurgents killed, partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) demonstrates that the insurgents have also been suffering significantly increased numbers of fatalities. The number of terrorist fatalities, which stood at 2,702 in 2013, increased to 6,030 in 2014, and further to 10,628 in 2015. So far, in 2016, 9,840 terrorists have been killed (data till August 25, 2016).

Nevertheless, the influence of Taliban and its affiliates, and of IS, is growing across Afghanistan. According to a report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) published on July 30, 2016, approximately 65.6 per cent of the country’s Districts are under Afghan Government control or influence as of May 28, 2016, a decrease from the 70.5 per cent reported on January 29, 2016. Of the 407 Districts within 34 Provinces, 268 were under Government control or influence; 36 (8.8 per cent) in 15 Provinces were under insurgent control or influence; and 104 (25.6 per cent) were “at risk”. Of the 36 Districts under insurgent control or influence, nine, with a population of 524,072, were under insurgent control, and 27, with a population of 1.98 million, were under insurgent influence.

Not surprisingly, during the first six months of the current year, 157,987 Afghans were newly displaced – a 10 per cent increase over the same period last year. This brings the estimated total number of conflict-induced internally displaced Afghans to 1.2 million.

Despite the deployment of 319,595 (not including civilians) strong ANDSF, guided and trained by ISAF, the spread of Taliban and its affiliates is primarily because of the continued support from across the border, from Pakistan. Interestingly, after cosying up with Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif despite Islamabad's continued deceit, Afghanistan President has rightly realized his error. Now, more often than not, like his predecessor Hamid Karzai, he has been highlighting Islamabad’s well documented and established role in fomenting trouble in Afghanistan. In the latest such assertion, referring to the August 24, 2016, attack at the American University, a statement released by the Office of the Afghan President observed,

Evaluation of evidence and findings from traces of the attack by the National Directorate of Security (NDS) show that it was organized and orchestrated from the other side of the Durand Line... In the meeting and presence of the National Security Council members, President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani spoke by phone with General Raheel Sharif, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, and asked for serious and practical measures against the terrorists, organizing the attack...

Not surprisingly, even the US has been forced to make decisive cuts in its aid to Pakistan. According to a February 24, 2016, report prepared by the Congressional Research Service for distribution to multiple congressional offices, the total aid to Pakistan, which stood at USD 3,581 million in financial year 2011, dropped to just USD 1,604 million in financial year 2015. It is significant to recall here that it was widely believed that Islamabad has been diverting most of these funds towards exporting terror to Afghanistan and India.

Further, the US has also decided to continue with a larger troop presence in Afghanistan. At a news conference on October 15, 2015, US President Barack Obama had said that the US will maintain 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of 2016 and will not go down to a normal Embassy presence by the end of 2016, but would, instead, keep 5,500 troops at a small number of bases. However, realizing the emerging threat, Obama declared on July 6, 2016, "Instead of going down to 5,500 troops by the end of this year, the United States will maintain approximately 8,400 troops in Afghanistan into next year, through the end of my administration." On August 22, 2016, Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook stated that US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter did not give Congressional certification to Pakistan for satisfactory action against the Haqqani Network this year, and the US had consequently blocked USD 300 million in military aid to Islamabad.

In spite of the overwhelming evidences and US's own realization of Pakistan's continued perfidy in Afghanistan, the US continues to rely on Islamabad, at least in with regard to peace talks. Despite a disastrous record of manipulation and failure, Pakistan has been given prominence in the latest peace initiative in Afghanistan. The Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) mechanism, set up on the margins of the Heart of Asia Conference on Afghanistan held in Islamabad in December 2015, and which became operational in January 2016, comprises of Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the US. The QCG has so far failed to make any positive move and appears destined to futility.

Indeed, recognizing the pointlessness of the QCG mechanism, the Afghanistan Government has, since in February 2016, sought to push for a new regional consultative mechanism to address the problem. The new body, a 6+1 group, will include India, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, the US and China, in addition to Afghanistan. There has, however, been no further information about the mechanism.

The US’ overreliance on Pakistan in any future talks in Afghanistan can only prove counterproductive, as Islamabad continues to strengthen the hands of the Taliban in its endeavor to establish a proxy power in Afghanistan. Pakistan insists that the Taliban must have an important role in any Government formation, in any post reconciliation setup.

It is quite evident that the US declaration, way back in December 2009 of a phased withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, enormously worsened the conflict. The number of civilian casualties, which had stood at 2,492 during the first six months of 2009, increased to 3,271 in the corresponding period of 2010, and has jumped to 5,166 in the first six months of 2016. It is hoped that the new Government in the US, after the elections of November 2016, will radically reassess the ground situation before reaching any conclusions regarding levels of deployment in Afghanistan.

INDIA

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Naga Peace Accord: Persistent Ambiguity
Nijeesh N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Though over a year has passed since the signing of the ‘historic Naga peace accord’ or the ‘framework agreement’ (as it was later termed) between the Government of India (GoI) and the Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM), the ‘framework’ has not been finalised yet, by either party. The ‘framework agreement’ was signed on August 3, 2015, by the GoI interlocutor for Naga talks R.N. Ravi and ‘general secretary’ of the NSCN-IM Thuingaleng Muivah in the presence of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others in New Delhi, after nearly 18 years and over 80 rounds of negotiations under ceasefire. Though most of the actual contents of the ‘agreement’ was not made public, GoI had affirmed that the ‘framework agreement’ was not a final settlement, and details would be disclosed in the succeeding six months. Regrettably, this remains a distant dream.   

Meanwhile, the ailing Isak Chisi Swu, Chairman of NSCN-IM, died of multiple organ failure at a hospital in Delhi, on June 28, 2016. Swu’s ill health was widely speculated to be the prime motivator of the hastily drafted ‘historic peace accord’ of August 2015.

After a prolonged silence, on August 12, 2016, the Government interlocutor R.N. Ravi and NSCN-IM 'general secretary' Thuingaleng Muivah issued a joint statement, declaring, "We assure the people that the talks have been progressing in right direction with determination. We are closer than ever before to the final settlement and hope to conclude it sooner than later." Further, on August 16, 2016, Nagaland Governor P.B. Acharya, in his Independence Day (August 15) message stated, "The ongoing talks have become more purposeful, less ritualistic, more forthright and far more frequent. This will usher in a new, happy era for all Nagas."

Taking into account the complexity of the 'Naga problem', the Narendra Modi Government has projected this accord as the first concrete fruition of the peace process in the insurgency-wracked northeastern region. According to reports, NSCN-IM leaders led by Muivah have been holding meetings with R.N. Ravi at least two to three times a week to push for a final settlement. However, GoI remained tight lipped on the content of Framework Agreement conceding only that, "the framework agreement lays down broad principle within which final agreement will be worked out and consultation with all stakeholders including State Governments of Nagaland, Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur will be held before reaching a final agreement".

While, ambiguity surrounding the ‘hidden contents’ of the ‘framework agreement’ persists, some developments give an indication of the course of the talks. As a positive gesture GoI ensured the release of the NSCN-IM’s ‘major general’ Ningkhan Shimray aka Anthony from the jail. On August 2, 2016, Ningkhan Shimray was granted bail by a special court in New Delhi, after the National Investigation Agency (NIA) did not oppose his bail application, stating that that his bail was “important in the interest of peace negotiations between NSCN-IM and the Government of India”. A Press Note from NSCN-IM’s ‘Ministry of Information & Publicity’ noted that the "maturity and sincerity displayed by GoI at this crucial stage of talk with this change of attitude will definitely go a long way in forging better relationship and mutual trust between the two entities." NSCN-IM strongly urged the GoI to drop all charges against Shimray and to release him unconditionally, so that future legal entanglements do not come in the way of a political solution.

In another move, former Director General of the Border Security Force (BSF) D.K. Pathak was, on August 3, 2016, appointed as the new Chairman of the Ceasefire Monitoring Group (CMG), created in 2001 to oversee the Ceasefire with the Naga militants. This is the first time that a Police officer has been appointed to the post, which has invariably been held by an Army officer in the past. The main task of the CMG Chairman is to help in the creation of a ‘conducive atmosphere’, by talking to the stakeholders on the ground to pave way for a successful political negotiation and bring a final solution to the decades-old insurgency problem. According to sources, Pathak was chosen for the job given his experience, not only as a BSF officer – the Force tackles insurgency in the North East as part of its mandate to guard the Indo-Bangla border – but also owing to his knowledge of the region, gained over his early years in service as an IPS officer in the Assam cadre, when insurgency there was at its peak.

Although NSCN-IM is still considered as the major Naga militant group in the region, violent incidents in which the outfit is involved have come down drastically as result of the ongoing peace talks. Since the August 3, 2015 Agreement, not a single insurgency-related fatalities has been registered in the name of NSCN-IM in Nagaland. However, according to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) data, two civilians were killed in two different incidents by NSCN-IM militants in Manipur during this period (all data updated till August 28, 2016).

Nevertheless, according to sources, as with any other northeast militant formation, NSCN-IM remains involved in other violent activities, including abduction, extortion and ‘tax collection’ to sustain their activities, though reported cases are few. In a recent incident, on August 12, 2016, Police arrested two NSCN-IM cadres, identified as Renchamo Khuvung and Ngachanpam Kasar, who were reportedly collecting money from commercial vehicles proceeding to Kohima, from the Wokha District of Nagaland. After reports of the arrests spread, the office of the NSCN-IM 'Wokha Town Command' was ransacked by an irate crowd at Wokha town, demanding the arrest of the ‘town commander’.

Earlier, on July 30, 2016, Assam Rifles (AR) identified and neutralized an illegal detention centre run by NSCN-IM in Sitiki Basa village in Dimapur District and rescued two abducted civilians, Raju Choudhary and Nayan Bora. During the operation, six NSCN-IM cadres who were running the illegal detention centre were arrested and many incriminating documents related to kidnapping/extortion were also recovered. Choudhary, State President of an NGO -- ACCIF (Anti Corruption and Crime Investigation Front) – was abducted on May 2, 2016 and his family was asked to pay INR two million for his release. Bora was abducted on June 18, 2016, and a demand of INR 500,000 as ransom was made to his family. The rescued duo stated that they saw around 40 people being beaten up and tortured, who were subsequently released after payment of ransom.

SATP data indicates that at least 29 NSCN-IM militants have been arrested in Nagaland since August 3, 2015, while eight NSCN-IM militants were arrested from Assam and five each from Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur (data till August 28, 2016). 

Similar cases of abduction and extortion have been reported in Manipur as well. On the intervening night of July 21-22, 2016, three civilians, identified as S. Lao, A. Adhani and C. Kholi were rescued by a joint team of the Maram Battalion under the Senapati Brigade of the Red Shield Division of the Indian Army and Senapati Police from Shepoumaramth office of NSCN-IM. They had been detained by NSCN-IM in their regional office for almost two months for “non-payment of taxes”. Through documents recovered from the office, it has come to light that the outfit was involved in rampant illegal taxation from locals, and anyone who refused to contribute has been beaten, tortured and illegally detained, a Police release claimed. The Security Forces (SFs) also arrested two NSCN-IM members, ‘lance corporal’ Alen and ‘private’ John, along with arms. Subsequently, on August 17, 2016, Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) alleged that “For the last 20 years 90 per cent of the development works of the Hill areas particularly in the Naga areas (in Manipur) have been spoiled by NSCN-IM,”

Moreover, Phoren Ramwaone, an arrested NSCN-IM militant in Police custody in Assam, disclosed, on August 22, 2016, that Tinsukia town in Assam was being used as a transit route and corridor by NSCN-IM militants from the Hebron headquarters in Dimapur (Nagaland) to the Lohit District of Arunachal Pradesh, for the past several years. He further revealed that it was common practice for the outfit to recruit children from Naga dominated areas of Arunachal Pradesh and to transport them to the Hebron camp for training. These children, at a later stage, were inducted either into the civil or military wing of NSCN-IM. An average of five to six children was picked up from the Lohit and Longding Districts of Arunachal, annually.

One of the major challenges for finalizing a settlement is the drafting of an “inclusive solution” to the 'Naga problem' through a peace accord with a single Naga group. There are several Naga militant factions, as well as political and tribal groups fighting for ‘Nagalim' (Greater Nagaland).  Moreover, the issue of 'Naga integration' of all Naga dominated areas in neighbouring States has also been a principal demand of NSCN-IM, and faces stiff opposition from these States (Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh). After violent reactions to the ‘extension of the ceasefire without territorial limits’ in the region in 2001, GoI had placed this entire issue on the back burner.

Besides, some of the Naga militant factions who are not part of the ‘peace accord’, especially the Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K), are trying to occupy the ‘space’ purportedly vacated by the NSCN-IM. NSCN-K, unilaterally exited its ceasefire agreement with the GoI on March 27, 2015, and escalated its violent activities in the region.  

Further, the spreading speculations about the contents of the agreement have also complicated issues on the ground. Reports asserted that Muivah had claimed that "NSCN-IM had not given up the demand for sovereignty and a separate flag and passport for Nagas was not just a ‘demand’ but a ‘right’ as the Nagas were never under Indian rule.” This provoked furious criticism from different corners, and allegations that the Centre was “compromising India’s sovereignty and integrity” for the accord. However, the Central Government categorically denied the allegation, stating that that the 'issue of sovereignty' for each State is taken care of by India’s federal structure. It was also reported that Interlocutor R.N. Ravi, during the talks, had offered that about 5,000 cadres of NSCN-IM would be inducted into BSF as part of their rehabilitation process. The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) later dismissed this as false.

Given the current scenario in India’s northeast, any persistence of uncertainty can only feed the forces of destabilization. Even if a final settlement is not imminent, greater clarity on the status of the peace process, and on the terms of negotiations currently prevailing, can help contribute to a greater sense of political calm in Nagaland and its neighbouring States. Crucially, whether the present accord eventually works out as a 'Naga accord' or simply as an 'NSCN-IM accord' – as a pattern of piece-meal appeasements that the Nagas have repeatedly rejected over the past several decades – remains to be seen. The outcome will test the political sagacity of both GoI and of the NSCN-IM leadership.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)