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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 31, January 30, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Punjab:
Two-faced on Counterterrorism
Tushar
Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The Counter-Terrorism
Department (CTD) of the Punjab Police in Pakistan killed
the new leader of the sectarian terrorists Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
(LeJ),
Asif Chotu aka Rizwan, along with three associates,
during an intelligence-based operation near the Sheikhupura
Bypass in the Sheikhupura District of Punjab in the early
hours of January 17, 2017. Three other terrorists managed
to escape. CTD recovered arms, ammunition and explosive
material from the possession of slain terrorists. The
killings came 18 months after CTD had shot dead long-time
LeJ chief Malik Ishaq in an encounter on July 29, 2015.
Asif Chotu had been named in over 100 murder cases and
had a bounty of PKR three million on his head. According
to a CTD statement, the LeJ leader was hatching a plot
to target the Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif: “Big
chapters of terrorism, target killings have been closed
today… These terrorists were merciless killing machines.”
Among the
dead, besides Asif Chotu, was Shakirullah Jan, the leader
of Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ) – the front organisation
of Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP)
– who was accused of killing noted Shia cleric of Gilgit-Baltistan,
Agha Ziauddin Rizvi on January 8, 2005. Over the years,
Shakirullah Jan and four others who were convicted in
the case repeatedly evaded arrest. A Gilgit Anti-Terrorism
Court (ATC) had awarded the death sentence to Shakirullah
Jan on August 10, 2015. Another terrorist killed in the
January 17 encounter was identified as Noor-ul-Amin, while
the fourth has not yet been identified.
Earlier,
on January 7, 2017, CTD killed six suspected terrorists
during an encounter on Faisalabad Bypass Road in the Faisalabad
District of Punjab. According to CTD Sheikhupura sources,
CTD Lahore arrested two terrorists identified as Saadullah
Khan and Jahanzeb Khan on January 6. They were allegedly
involved in the Gulshan Iqbal Park suicide blast in Lahore.
The CTD Lahore team was taking the arrested terrorists
to Kot Pindi Daas to arrest other terrorists when their
accomplices attacked the team and freed Saadullah Khan
and Jahanzeb Khan. The incident led to cross firing between
the Police party and suspected terrorists as a result
of which six terrorists were killed while three others
managed to escape. CTD also recovered three motorcycles,
Kalashnikovs, pistols, bullets and a huge cache of explosives
and hand grenades.
On December
18, 2016, CTD claimed to have killed five terrorists in
the Choti Bala area of Dera Ghazi Khan District in Punjab.
The suspects opened fire during a CTD raid that was conducted
on a tip-off about the presence of terrorists in the area.
Five of them were killed while four suspects are said
to have fled during the exchange of fire. Two of the suspects
killed in the operation were identified as Malik Tehseen
and Kamran. Arms and explosive materials were also recovered
in the operation.
On December
7, 2016, four militants were killed in an encounter with
CTD personnel in the vicinity of the Machike Oil Depot
in Sheikhupura District in Punjab. According to details,
the CTD team received credible information of 7 or 8 terrorists
being present in the vicinity of the Oil Depot, planning
to attack sensitive installations. The terrorists killed
in the shootout were affiliated to the proscribed LeJ
and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Three kilograms of explosives with detonators, two Kalashnikovs,
two pistols, ammunition and two motorcycles were recovered
from the site of the encounter.
Between
December 7, 2016 and January 17, 2017, CTD had eliminated
19 hardcore terrorists in four encounters in Punjab. In
the first 17 days of the year 2017 itself, 10 militants
were killed in two encounters. Punjab saw its highest
fatalities in 2016, as against the preceding six years.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia
Terrorism Portal (SATP), Punjab recorded a total of
244 fatalities, including 84 civilians, 21 SF personnel
and 139 terrorists in 2016; as against 176 fatalities,
including 90 civilians, nine SF personnel and 77 terrorists
in 2015. While militant fatalities had increased significantly
by 80.51 per cent in 2016 in comparison to the previous
year, fatalities in the SF category registered a decline
of 57.14 per cent, and civilian fatalities also decreased
by 6.66 per cent.
Fatalities
in Fatalities in Punjab: 2006-2017
Years
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Militants
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Total
|
2006
|
6
|
0
|
1
|
7
|
2007
|
96
|
47
|
14
|
157
|
2008
|
298
|
40
|
14
|
352
|
2009
|
254
|
117
|
51
|
422
|
2010
|
272
|
28
|
16
|
316
|
2011
|
110
|
19
|
8
|
137
|
2012
|
59
|
29
|
16
|
104
|
2013
|
64
|
7
|
10
|
81
|
2014
|
132
|
20
|
28
|
180
|
2015
|
90
|
9
|
77
|
176
|
2016
|
84
|
21
|
139
|
244
|
2017
|
0
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
Total*
|
1465
|
337
|
384
|
2186
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Source:
SATP, *Data till January 29, 2017
Other parameters
of violence also indicate that a widespread threat persists
in the Province. The number of major incidents (each involving
three or more fatalities) increased by 76.97 per cent
in 2016 in comparison to the previous year. Punjab accounted
for 27 major incidents of violence resulting in 226 deaths
in 2016, as against 21 such incidents, accounting for
142 fatalities in 2015.
There was,
however, a considerable decrease in the number of explosion
related incidents in 2016. In comparison to 16 blasts
resulting in 94 fatalities in 2015, 2016 recorded just
two blasts resulting in 76 fatalities. Of these fatalities,
75 persons were killed in just one explosion, the only
suicide attack of the year. At least 75 persons were killed
and more than 300 injured when a suicide bomb ripped through
the parking space in Gulshan-e-Iqbal Park situated near
Allama Iqbal Town in the provincial capital, Lahore, when
Christians were celebrating Easter. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA,
Group of the Free), a breakaway faction of TTP, claimed
responsibility for the attack. Group's spokesman Ehsanullah
Ehsan declared, "We claim responsibility for the
attack on Christians as they were celebrating Easter."
Punjab
has long consolidated as a nursery of terrorism. Media
reports in May 2016 quoted a senior counter-terrorism
(CT) officer, citing a confidential report titled “Proscribed/Jihadi
Organizations”, who noted that major banned outfits in
the country were still recruiting madrassa students
to wage jihad in Afghanistan and Kashmir, and that
such non-state actors had become very dangerous for Pakistan
as well. In the secret document, consisting of 111 pages,
the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD), Punjab, disclosed
that 32 proscribed organizations and nine of their splinters
groups had become “a nursery of terrorism in Pakistan.”
Adjacent areas of Bahawalpur, Muridke, Sialkot and some
southern Districts of Punjab – long dominated by prominent
domestic terror formations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
– have now become a breeding ground for these foreign
formations.
In a bid
to target domestic terrorism and restore a measure of
peace after the December 16, 2014, Peshawar
school attack, the Punjab Government
under the National Action Plan (NAP) tried to reign in
the growing menace of terrorism in the Province. Official
documents cited in a June 20, 2016, report claimed to
have eliminated the entire leadership of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
(LeJ).
Over 226 ‘jet-black terrorists’ (a term first used by
the then Army Chief General Raheel Sharif to describe
hardcore terrorists who have committed violent crimes)
had been killed and 1,000 hardcore militants arrested
since the beginning of 2016 till June 19, 2016, in combing
operations conducted by CTD. 637 hardcore terrorists of
LeJ and its splinter groups were arrested. These included
394 close associates of slain LeJ chief Malik Ishaq. Counter-terrorism
forces also claimed that they had arrested 352 hardcore
terrorists affiliated to the Ludhianvi Group, 24 of Jamaat-ud-Dawa
(JuD), 37 of TTP, 67 of Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM),
and 164 affiliated to other proscribed organisations.
1,600 suspects had been placed under the 4th Schedule
(on the watch list), and 2,240 Afghan trained boys, 556
returnees from Afghan prisons and 89 Lal Masjid elements
were also arrested in the combing operations.
Despite
these vaunting figures, the terrorist establishments in
the region are far from being wiped out. In its report,
‘Pakistan’s Jihadist Heartland: Southern Punjab’, released
on May 30, 2016, the International Crisis Group (ICG)
observed, “Continued state sponsorship remains a source
of empowerment for groups that fall under the category
of “good” jihadists, such as the Jaish, which has networks
across the province.” ICG confirmed that Jaish-e-Mohammad’s
(JeM’s) infrastructure at Bahawalpur remained intact,
including its sprawling headquarters at the Usman-o-Ali
Madrassa and other mosques and madrassas across
the District. A Federal Minister and Member of Parliament
from Bahawalpur, Riaz Husain Pirzada, concurred, “the
breeding grounds remain; the [sectarian] madrassas
are still being financed.” According to local observers,
Jaish also continues to run a prominently-located terrorist
training cell on a main Bahawalpur road toward Ahmedpur
tehsil [revenue unit], which attracts young (often
teenaged) recruits from around southern Punjab.
The presence
of JeM and LeJ, Pakistan’s most radical Deobandi groups,
in the Province has long fuelled the atmosphere of sectarian
conflict. However, according to a statement on on July
14, 2016, by the Police Chief of the Province, Inspector
General (IG) Mushtaq Ahmad Sukhera, a crackdown on mosques
which use loudspeakers to blare out incendiary language
against minorities has cut down public hate speech in
Punjab. Punjab, which has a population of about 100 million,
has historically struggled to curb sectarian violence
and hate speech by firebrand Sunni Muslim clerics who
often refer to minorities as “heretics”.
Representatives
of minority groups confirmed that mosques in Lahore and
other big cities in Punjab had largely stopped using loudspeakers
to preach against smaller religious group. Saleemur Rehman,
spokesperson for the Ahmadi community which is often targeted,
however, observed, “But (that is) only in big cities where
Police do strong checks. In smaller towns and rural areas,
loudspeakers are still being used for hate speech.” Peter
Jacob, Director National Commission for Justice and Peace
(NCJP), added that hate speech continued on social media
and is plastered to rickshaws and public buses, adding,
“There is no change in the level of intolerance in the
society.”
It is the
duplicity of the Pakistan and Punjab Governments on the
issues of terrorism in general and of sectarian terrorist
formations in particular, that has aggravated the situation.
High profile officials and ministers continue to openly
associate with sectarian terrorist formations, casting
serious doubt over the Government’s commitment to combat
extremism. For instance, photographs featuring Federal
Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan with Maulana
Ahmed Ludhianvi, the leader of the banned sectarian terrorist
Ahle Sunnat wal Jamaat (ASWJ) have surfaced on social
media. When a hue cry was raised, the Minister was unrepentant
and, indeed, offered a defence of ASWJ, stating, on January
14, 2017, that the Shia-Sunni conflict dated back 1300
years and was a part of Islamic history, and it was unfair
(with regard to terrorism) to “link everything with ASWJ’s
Chief”.
Responding
to a question in the Senate regarding his remarks that
outlawed sectarian organisations should not be equated
with terrorist outfits, Nisar asked whether it was "a
crime" to suggest that separate laws should be formed
to deal with groups proscribed on sectarian basis to remedy
the "confusion being created". Crucially, this
is the Federal Interior Minister of the country, who is
in charge of the implementation of the National Action
Plan against terrorism. Clearly, Pakistan has miles to
go before it can arrive at any consistent policy that
could free it of terrorism.
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Maharashtra:
A Fading Red
Deepak
Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On January
12, 2017, two civilians, Ramesh Atala (27) and Manohar
Atala (55), were killed by Communist Party of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist)
cadres in Gadchiroli District. A Gadchiroli Police statement
disclosed that the Maoists shot the victims claiming they
were ‘police informers’.
On January
5, 2017, a surrendered Naxalite [Left Wing Extremist
(LWE)] was allegedly killed by Maoist cadres at Kehakavi
village in the Dhanora tehsil (revenue unit) of
Gadchiroli District. The victim, Sukhram Lalchu Wadde
(35), had surrendered before the Police in July 2016.
According to the Police, the CPI-Maoist cadres were angry
as Sukhram had turned himself in.
On the
same day, Security Forces (SFs) killed the ‘deputy commander’
of Kasansur dalam (squad), Jyoti Gawade aka
Sagobai Narsingh, in an encounter near Gyarapati of
Gadchiroli District. According to reports, SFs had launched
an operation on January 4, 2017, following information
about the presence of Maoists in the area. SFs spotted
Jyoti's dalam members, following which a battled
ensued in which she was killed. Other Maoist cadres, however,
managed to escape.
As a result,
at least four persons, including three civilians and one
Maoist, have been killed in Maharashtra in LWE/CPI-Maoist-linked
incidents in the current year (data till January 26, 2017),
according to partial data compiled by the South Asia
Terrorism Portal (SATP).
According
to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) data, at
least 28 fatalities (16 civilians, three SF personnel
and nine Maoists) were recorded in the state in 2016 (data
till November 15) as against 20 fatalities (16 civilians,
two SF personnel and two Maoists) in 2015, an increase
of 40 per cent, which reversed the trend of declining
fatalities in such violence recorded in the state since
2012. Maharashtra had accounted for 57 fatalities in 2011,
45 fatalities each in 2012 and 2013, and 38 in 2014.
More worryingly,
at least 19 civilians were killed through 2016. [According
to the UMHA data, at least 16 civilians were killed between
January 1, 2016, and November 15, 2016. Another three
civilians were killed between November 16, 2016, and December
31, 2016, according to the SATP database]. Three villagers,
identified as Laccha Bande Madavi (36), Patali Doge Atram
(36), and Talwarsha Kunjram, were killed by Naxalites
in Aheri and Korchi tehsils of Gadchiroli District
on the suspicion of being ‘police informers’ on December
29. The total number of civilian fatalities was 16 (UMHA
data) through 2015 as well as in 2014. Fatalities in this
category had stood at 13 in 2013, down from 27 in 2012.
The highest number of civilian fatalities, 44, was registered
in 2011 (UMHA data).
The surge
in civilian fatalities coincides with an improvement in
SFs’ success ratio against the Maoists on the ground.
An analysis of fatalities in these two categories – the
SFs and the Maoists - according to UMHA data available
since 2003, shows that SFs in 2016 achieved a positive
kill ratio in their fight against the Maoists in Maharashtra
– at 1:3 (nine Maoists killed as against three SF personnel)
– for the first time since 2013. Two SF personnel and
two Maoists were killed in 2015 (kill ratio 1:1). With
12 SF personnel and 10 Maoists killed in 2014, the ratio
was 1:1.2, in favour of the Maoists. In 2013, however,
SFs had killed 26 Maoists while losing six of their own
personnel, yielding a positive ratio of 1:4.3.
While the
trend is erratic, over all Maoist arrests have risen.
UMHA data indicates that at least six Maoists were arrested
in 2016 (up to November 15) adding to 20 arrested through
2015; 18 in 2014; and 38 in 2013. In one such incident
on September 17, 2016, Ranu Usendi, a Maoist 'commander',
was arrested from his village Javeli in Raigad District,
where he had come to attend a family programme. Ranu had
joined the rebel movement in 2005. In another incident
on May 23, 2016, Lakhan aka Mohan, carrying a bounty
of INR 30,000 on his head and wanted in connection with
a 2008 case wherein a group of 10 Maoists had set two
bamboo laden trucks on fire, was arrested from Gondiya
District.
In addition,
at least 45 LWEs gave up arms in 2016 (up to November
15), as against 25 in the corresponding period of 2015.
Total surrenders through 2015 stood at 29. There were
43 surrenders in 2014 and 53 in 2013. While mounting SF
pressure is one of the major reasons behind these surrenders,
another is the past success of the official surrender
policy, which the Maharashtra Government has extended
up to August 28, 2017. The latest surrender policy carries
a cash reward of up to INR 500,000.
The adverse
situation faced by the Maoists has resulted in a decline
of activities on the ground. Maharashtra registered 66
Maoist-linked incidents in 2016 (up to November 15, UMHA
data), as against 55 such incidents in the corresponding
period of 2015. No incidents were recorded in 2015 thereafter.
At their peak, Maharashtra, had accounted for 154 such
incidents in 2009. Similarly, Maoists were involved in
attacking economic targets on just two occasions through
2016, as compared to seven such attacks in 2015, four
in 2014, and six in 2013. Most recently, Jyoti, the Maoist
‘deputy commander,’ killed on January 5, 2017, had allegedly
led the arson attack on December 23, 2016, in which 76
trucks, three J.C. Bamford (JCB) Excavators and one motorcycle
were burnt by the Maoists at the Surjagarh mines in Gadchiroli
District. According to the Gadchiroli Police, around 500
rebels had stormed the site and assaulted an unspecified
number of truck drivers and labourers, kept them confined,
and set ablaze the trucks and earthmovers. The Surjagarh
mines are one of the biggest iron-ore mines in the District.
Despite
significant gains, the Maoist threat persists. Gadchiroli
District, which according to the SATP database recorded
all the 26 fatalities of 2016, and all 17 fatalities in
2015, continues to remain the epicenter of Maoist violence
in the State. Two other Districts of Maharashtra – Chandrapur
and Gondiya – though they did not register a single fatality
in 2016 and 2015 (SATP data), continue to be listed among
the 106 Naxal-affected Districts by UMHA. Significantly,
Gadchiroli shares borders with both Chandrapur and Gondiya,
as well as with Bhandra (all in Maharashtra). More worryingly,
it shares borders with four Districts of Chhattisgarh
[Bijapur, Kanker, Narayanpur and Rajnandgaon] and two
Districts of Telangana [Adilabad and Karimnagar], all
Maoist-afflicted. Three of these four districts in Chhattisgarh
(excluding Rajnandgaon) form part of the Bastar Division,
one of the worst Maoist affected regions in the country.
Further, Gadchiroli has a 75.96 per cent forest cover,
making the task of locating and neutralising Maoist hideouts
quite difficult.
The CPI-Maoist
in Maharashtra had issued a 'hit list' of 37 persons,
including senior Police officers and ‘police informers’,
vowing to eliminate them in 2016. Accordingly, the Maoists
had detailed units of 'Company-10', trained to kill with
precision, from Chhattisgarh. An intelligence note claimed,
"This [the latest hit list] is a matter of serious
concern for the State (Maharashtra), even as inputs show
new strategies are being adopted to attract youth with
fresh vigour." It is not clear how many on the list
have been killed.
Meanwhile,
according to Bureau of Police Research and Development
(BPR&D) 2016 data (as on January 1, 2016), though
Maharashtra’s Police-population ratio, at 147.3 per 100,000,
is significantly higher than the national average of 137.11,
it remains substantially lower than the minimum of 220/100,000
ratio regarded as desirable for 'peacetime policing'.
Further, the State has 176,044 Policemen, as against a
sanctioned strength of 191,143, leaving 7.89 per cent
of sanctioned posts vacant. The Police/Area Ratio (number
of Policemen per 100 square kilometers) for Maharashtra
is 57.21, as against the sanctioned strength of 62.12.
The all-India ratio is 54.69, as against a sanction of
72.03 per 100 square kilometres.
The Maharashtra
Police requires far more personnel, as well as a substantially
larger allocation of other resources, to deal effectively
with the challenge of the Maoist insurgency. Regretfully,
on January 22, 2017, Additional Director General of Police
(ADGP) (Special Operations), Bipin Bihari, acknowledged,
“With only 15 outdated night vision cameras, which are
seldom of any use, we were reduced to conducting night
operations merely banking on ground experience, making
the force vulnerable.” Moreover, at the level of Police
leadership, according to the UMHA data on the shortage
of IPS officers, there is a 20.52 per cent deficiency
in the number of IPS officers in position (as of January
1, 2016) in the State.
Both the
central and state Governments have failed to address these
issues and deficits. Despite this, SFs have managed to
secure relative peace in the State. Whether this is sustainable,
however, will depend on political sagacity, a commodity
often in short supply.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
January
23-29, 2017
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Manipur
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
Jharkhand
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total (INDIA)
|
3
|
1
|
8
|
12
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Sindh
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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