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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 31, January 30, 2017

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
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Punjab: Two-faced on Counterterrorism
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) of the Punjab Police in Pakistan killed the new leader of the sectarian terrorists Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Asif Chotu aka Rizwan, along with three associates, during an intelligence-based operation near the Sheikhupura Bypass in the Sheikhupura District of Punjab in the early hours of January 17, 2017. Three other terrorists managed to escape. CTD recovered arms, ammunition and explosive material from the possession of slain terrorists. The killings came 18 months after CTD had shot dead long-time LeJ chief Malik Ishaq in an encounter on July 29, 2015. Asif Chotu had been named in over 100 murder cases and had a bounty of PKR three million on his head. According to a CTD statement, the LeJ leader was hatching a plot to target the Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif: “Big chapters of terrorism, target killings have been closed today… These terrorists were merciless killing machines.”

Among the dead, besides Asif Chotu, was Shakirullah Jan, the leader of Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ) – the front organisation of Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) – who was accused of killing noted Shia cleric of Gilgit-Baltistan, Agha Ziauddin Rizvi on January 8, 2005. Over the years, Shakirullah Jan and four others who were convicted in the case repeatedly evaded arrest. A Gilgit Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) had awarded the death sentence to Shakirullah Jan on August 10, 2015. Another terrorist killed in the January 17 encounter was identified as Noor-ul-Amin, while the fourth has not yet been identified.  

Earlier, on January 7, 2017, CTD killed six suspected terrorists during an encounter on Faisalabad Bypass Road in the Faisalabad District of Punjab. According to CTD Sheikhupura sources, CTD Lahore arrested two terrorists identified as Saadullah Khan and Jahanzeb Khan on January 6. They were allegedly involved in the Gulshan Iqbal Park suicide blast in Lahore. The CTD Lahore team was taking the arrested terrorists to Kot Pindi Daas to arrest other terrorists when their accomplices attacked the team and freed Saadullah Khan and Jahanzeb Khan. The incident led to cross firing between the Police party and suspected terrorists as a result of which six terrorists were killed while three others managed to escape. CTD also recovered three motorcycles, Kalashnikovs, pistols, bullets and a huge cache of explosives and hand grenades.

On December 18, 2016, CTD claimed to have killed five terrorists in the Choti Bala area of Dera Ghazi Khan District in Punjab. The suspects opened fire during a CTD raid that was conducted on a tip-off about the presence of terrorists in the area. Five of them were killed while four suspects are said to have fled during the exchange of fire. Two of the suspects killed in the operation were identified as Malik Tehseen and Kamran. Arms and explosive materials were also recovered in the operation.

On December 7, 2016, four militants were killed in an encounter with CTD personnel in the vicinity of the Machike Oil Depot in Sheikhupura District in Punjab. According to details, the CTD team received credible information of 7 or 8 terrorists being present in the vicinity of the Oil Depot, planning to attack sensitive installations. The terrorists killed in the shootout were affiliated to the proscribed LeJ and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Three kilograms of explosives with detonators, two Kalashnikovs, two pistols, ammunition and two motorcycles were recovered from the site of the encounter.

Between December 7, 2016 and January 17, 2017, CTD had eliminated 19 hardcore terrorists in four encounters in Punjab. In the first 17 days of the year 2017 itself, 10 militants were killed in two encounters. Punjab saw its highest fatalities in 2016, as against the preceding six years. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Punjab recorded a total of 244 fatalities, including 84 civilians, 21 SF personnel and 139 terrorists in 2016; as against 176 fatalities, including 90 civilians, nine SF personnel and 77 terrorists in 2015. While militant fatalities had increased significantly by 80.51 per cent in 2016 in comparison to the previous year, fatalities in the SF category registered a decline of 57.14 per cent, and civilian fatalities also decreased by 6.66 per cent.  

Fatalities in Fatalities in Punjab: 2006-2017

Years
Civilians
SFs
Militants
Total
2006
6
0
1
7
2007
96
47
14
157
2008
298
40
14
352
2009
254
117
51
422
2010
272
28
16
316
2011
110
19
8
137
2012
59
29
16
104
2013
64
7
10
81
2014
132
20
28
180
2015
90
9
77
176
2016
84
21
139
244
2017
0
0
10
10
Total*
1465
337
384
2186
Source: SATP, *Data till January 29, 2017

Other parameters of violence also indicate that a widespread threat persists in the Province. The number of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) increased by 76.97 per cent in 2016 in comparison to the previous year. Punjab accounted for 27 major incidents of violence resulting in 226 deaths in 2016, as against 21 such incidents, accounting for 142 fatalities in 2015.

There was, however, a considerable decrease in the number of explosion related incidents in 2016. In comparison to 16 blasts resulting in 94 fatalities in 2015, 2016 recorded just two blasts resulting in 76 fatalities. Of these fatalities, 75 persons were killed in just one explosion, the only suicide attack of the year. At least 75 persons were killed and more than 300 injured when a suicide bomb ripped through the parking space in Gulshan-e-Iqbal Park situated near Allama Iqbal Town in the provincial capital, Lahore, when Christians were celebrating Easter. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA, Group of the Free), a breakaway faction of TTP, claimed responsibility for the attack. Group's spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan declared, "We claim responsibility for the attack on Christians as they were celebrating Easter."

Punjab has long consolidated as a nursery of terrorism. Media reports in May 2016 quoted a senior counter-terrorism (CT) officer, citing a confidential report titled “Proscribed/Jihadi Organizations”, who noted that major banned outfits in the country were still recruiting madrassa students to wage jihad in Afghanistan and Kashmir, and that such non-state actors had become very dangerous for Pakistan as well. In the secret document, consisting of 111 pages, the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD), Punjab, disclosed that 32 proscribed organizations and nine of their splinters groups had become “a nursery of terrorism in Pakistan.” Adjacent areas of Bahawalpur, Muridke, Sialkot and some southern Districts of Punjab – long dominated by prominent domestic terror formations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) – have now become a breeding ground for these foreign formations.

In a bid to target domestic terrorism and restore a measure of peace after the December 16, 2014, Peshawar school attack, the Punjab Government under the National Action Plan (NAP) tried to reign in the growing menace of terrorism in the Province. Official documents cited in a June 20, 2016, report claimed to have eliminated the entire leadership of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). Over 226 ‘jet-black terrorists’ (a term first used by the then Army Chief General Raheel Sharif to describe hardcore terrorists who have committed violent crimes) had been killed and 1,000 hardcore militants arrested since the beginning of 2016 till June 19, 2016, in combing operations conducted by CTD. 637 hardcore terrorists of LeJ and its splinter groups were arrested. These included 394 close associates of slain LeJ chief Malik Ishaq. Counter-terrorism forces also claimed that they had arrested 352 hardcore terrorists affiliated to the Ludhianvi Group, 24 of Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), 37 of TTP, 67 of Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), and 164 affiliated to other proscribed organisations. 1,600 suspects had been placed under the 4th Schedule (on the watch list), and 2,240 Afghan trained boys, 556 returnees from Afghan prisons and 89 Lal Masjid elements were also arrested in the combing operations.

Despite these vaunting figures, the terrorist establishments in the region are far from being wiped out. In its report, ‘Pakistan’s Jihadist Heartland: Southern Punjab’, released on May 30, 2016, the International Crisis Group (ICG) observed, “Continued state sponsorship remains a source of empowerment for groups that fall under the category of “good” jihadists, such as the Jaish, which has networks across the province.” ICG confirmed that Jaish-e-Mohammad’s (JeM’s) infrastructure at Bahawalpur remained intact, including its sprawling headquarters at the Usman-o-Ali Madrassa and other mosques and madrassas across the District. A Federal Minister and Member of Parliament from Bahawalpur, Riaz Husain Pirzada, concurred, “the breeding grounds remain; the [sectarian] madrassas are still being financed.” According to local observers, Jaish also continues to run a prominently-located terrorist training cell on a main Bahawalpur road toward Ahmedpur tehsil [revenue unit], which attracts young (often teenaged) recruits from around southern Punjab.

The presence of JeM and LeJ, Pakistan’s most radical Deobandi groups, in the Province has long fuelled the atmosphere of sectarian conflict. However, according to a statement on on July 14, 2016, by the Police Chief of the Province, Inspector General (IG) Mushtaq Ahmad Sukhera, a crackdown on mosques which use loudspeakers to blare out incendiary language against minorities has cut down public hate speech in Punjab. Punjab, which has a population of about 100 million, has historically struggled to curb sectarian violence and hate speech by firebrand Sunni Muslim clerics who often refer to minorities as “heretics”.

Representatives of minority groups confirmed that mosques in Lahore and other big cities in Punjab had largely stopped using loudspeakers to preach against smaller religious group. Saleemur Rehman, spokesperson for the Ahmadi community which is often targeted, however, observed, “But (that is) only in big cities where Police do strong checks. In smaller towns and rural areas, loudspeakers are still being used for hate speech.” Peter Jacob, Director National Commission for Justice and Peace (NCJP), added that hate speech continued on social media and is plastered to rickshaws and public buses, adding, “There is no change in the level of intolerance in the society.”

It is the duplicity of the Pakistan and Punjab Governments on the issues of terrorism in general and of sectarian terrorist formations in particular, that has aggravated the situation. High profile officials and ministers continue to openly associate with sectarian terrorist formations, casting serious doubt over the Government’s commitment to combat extremism. For instance, photographs featuring Federal Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan with Maulana Ahmed Ludhianvi, the leader of the banned sectarian terrorist Ahle Sunnat wal Jamaat (ASWJ) have surfaced on social media. When a hue cry was raised, the Minister was unrepentant and, indeed, offered a defence of ASWJ, stating, on January 14, 2017, that the Shia-Sunni conflict dated back 1300 years and was a part of Islamic history, and it was unfair (with regard to terrorism) to “link everything with ASWJ’s Chief”.

Responding to a question in the Senate regarding his remarks that outlawed sectarian organisations should not be equated with terrorist outfits, Nisar asked whether it was "a crime" to suggest that separate laws should be formed to deal with groups proscribed on sectarian basis to remedy the "confusion being created". Crucially, this is the Federal Interior Minister of the country, who is in charge of the implementation of the National Action Plan against terrorism. Clearly, Pakistan has miles to go before it can arrive at any consistent policy that could free it of terrorism.

INDIA
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Maharashtra: A Fading Red
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 12, 2017, two civilians, Ramesh Atala (27) and Manohar Atala (55), were killed by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in Gadchiroli District. A Gadchiroli Police statement disclosed that the Maoists shot the victims claiming they were ‘police informers’.

On January 5, 2017, a surrendered Naxalite [Left Wing Extremist (LWE)] was allegedly killed by Maoist cadres at Kehakavi village in the Dhanora tehsil (revenue unit) of Gadchiroli District. The victim, Sukhram Lalchu Wadde (35), had surrendered before the Police in July 2016. According to the Police, the CPI-Maoist cadres were angry as Sukhram had turned himself in.

On the same day, Security Forces (SFs) killed the ‘deputy commander’ of Kasansur dalam (squad), Jyoti Gawade aka Sagobai Narsingh, in an encounter near Gyarapati of Gadchiroli District. According to reports, SFs had launched an operation on January 4, 2017, following information about the presence of Maoists in the area. SFs spotted Jyoti's dalam members, following which a battled ensued in which she was killed. Other Maoist cadres, however, managed to escape.

As a result, at least four persons, including three civilians and one Maoist, have been killed in Maharashtra in LWE/CPI-Maoist-linked incidents in the current year (data till January 26, 2017), according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP).

According to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) data, at least 28 fatalities (16 civilians, three SF personnel and nine Maoists) were recorded in the state in 2016 (data till November 15) as against 20 fatalities (16 civilians, two SF personnel and two Maoists) in 2015, an increase of 40 per cent, which reversed the trend of declining fatalities in such violence recorded in the state since 2012. Maharashtra had accounted for 57 fatalities in 2011, 45 fatalities each in 2012 and 2013, and 38 in 2014. 

More worryingly, at least 19 civilians were killed through 2016. [According to the UMHA data, at least 16 civilians were killed between January 1, 2016, and November 15, 2016. Another three civilians were killed between November 16, 2016, and December 31, 2016, according to the SATP database]. Three villagers, identified as Laccha Bande Madavi (36), Patali Doge Atram (36), and Talwarsha Kunjram, were killed by Naxalites in Aheri and Korchi tehsils of Gadchiroli District on the suspicion of being ‘police informers’ on December 29. The total number of civilian fatalities was 16 (UMHA data) through 2015 as well as in 2014. Fatalities in this category had stood at 13 in 2013, down from 27 in 2012. The highest number of civilian fatalities, 44, was registered in 2011 (UMHA data).

The surge in civilian fatalities coincides with an improvement in SFs’ success ratio against the Maoists on the ground. An analysis of fatalities in these two categories – the SFs and the Maoists - according to UMHA data available since 2003, shows that SFs in 2016 achieved a positive kill ratio in their fight against the Maoists in Maharashtra – at 1:3 (nine Maoists killed as against three SF personnel) – for the first time since 2013.  Two SF personnel and two Maoists were killed in 2015 (kill ratio 1:1). With 12 SF personnel and 10 Maoists killed in 2014, the ratio was 1:1.2, in favour of the Maoists. In 2013, however, SFs had killed 26 Maoists while losing six of their own personnel, yielding a positive ratio of 1:4.3.

While the trend is erratic, over all Maoist arrests have risen. UMHA data indicates that at least six Maoists were arrested in 2016 (up to November 15) adding to 20 arrested through 2015; 18 in 2014; and 38 in 2013. In one such incident on September 17, 2016, Ranu Usendi, a Maoist 'commander', was arrested from his village Javeli in Raigad District, where he had come to attend a family programme. Ranu had joined the rebel movement in 2005. In another incident on May 23, 2016, Lakhan aka Mohan, carrying a bounty of INR 30,000 on his head and wanted in connection with a 2008 case wherein a group of 10 Maoists had set two bamboo laden trucks on fire, was arrested from Gondiya District.

In addition, at least 45 LWEs gave up arms in 2016 (up to November 15), as against 25 in the corresponding period of 2015. Total surrenders through 2015 stood at 29. There were 43 surrenders in 2014 and 53 in 2013. While mounting SF pressure is one of the major reasons behind these surrenders, another is the past success of the official surrender policy, which the Maharashtra Government has extended up to August 28, 2017. The latest surrender policy carries a cash reward of up to INR 500,000.

The adverse situation faced by the Maoists has resulted in a decline of activities on the ground. Maharashtra registered 66 Maoist-linked incidents in 2016 (up to November 15, UMHA data), as against 55 such incidents in the corresponding period of 2015. No incidents were recorded in 2015 thereafter. At their peak, Maharashtra, had accounted for 154 such incidents in 2009. Similarly, Maoists were involved in attacking economic targets on just two occasions through 2016, as compared to seven such attacks in 2015, four in 2014, and six in 2013. Most recently, Jyoti, the Maoist ‘deputy commander,’ killed on January 5, 2017, had allegedly led the arson attack on December 23, 2016, in which 76 trucks, three J.C. Bamford (JCB) Excavators and one motorcycle were burnt by the Maoists at the Surjagarh mines in Gadchiroli District. According to the Gadchiroli Police, around 500 rebels had stormed the site and assaulted an unspecified number of truck drivers and labourers, kept them confined, and set ablaze the trucks and earthmovers. The Surjagarh mines are one of the biggest iron-ore mines in the District.

Despite significant gains, the Maoist threat persists. Gadchiroli District, which according to the SATP database recorded all the 26 fatalities of 2016, and all 17 fatalities in 2015, continues to remain the epicenter of Maoist violence in the State. Two other Districts of Maharashtra – Chandrapur and Gondiya – though they did not register a single fatality in 2016 and 2015 (SATP data), continue to be listed among the 106 Naxal-affected Districts by UMHA. Significantly, Gadchiroli shares borders with both Chandrapur and Gondiya, as well as with Bhandra (all in Maharashtra). More worryingly, it shares borders with four Districts of Chhattisgarh [Bijapur, Kanker, Narayanpur and Rajnandgaon] and two Districts of Telangana [Adilabad and Karimnagar], all Maoist-afflicted. Three of these four districts in Chhattisgarh (excluding Rajnandgaon) form part of the Bastar Division, one of the worst Maoist affected regions in the country. Further, Gadchiroli has a 75.96 per cent forest cover, making the task of locating and neutralising Maoist hideouts quite difficult.

The CPI-Maoist in Maharashtra had issued a 'hit list' of 37 persons, including senior Police officers and ‘police informers’, vowing to eliminate them in 2016. Accordingly, the Maoists had detailed units of 'Company-10', trained to kill with precision, from Chhattisgarh. An intelligence note claimed, "This [the latest hit list] is a matter of serious concern for the State (Maharashtra), even as inputs show new strategies are being adopted to attract youth with fresh vigour." It is not clear how many on the list have been killed.

Meanwhile, according to Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) 2016 data (as on January 1, 2016), though Maharashtra’s Police-population ratio, at 147.3 per 100,000, is significantly higher than the national average of 137.11, it remains substantially lower than the minimum of 220/100,000 ratio regarded as desirable for 'peacetime policing'. Further, the State has 176,044 Policemen, as against a sanctioned strength of 191,143, leaving 7.89 per cent of sanctioned posts vacant. The Police/Area Ratio (number of Policemen per 100 square kilometers) for Maharashtra is 57.21, as against the sanctioned strength of 62.12. The all-India ratio is 54.69, as against a sanction of 72.03 per 100 square kilometres.

The Maharashtra Police requires far more personnel, as well as a substantially larger allocation of other resources, to deal effectively with the challenge of the Maoist insurgency. Regretfully, on January 22, 2017, Additional Director General of Police (ADGP) (Special Operations), Bipin Bihari, acknowledged, “With only 15 outdated night vision cameras, which are seldom of any use, we were reduced to conducting night operations merely banking on ground experience, making the force vulnerable.” Moreover, at the level of Police leadership, according to the UMHA data on the shortage of IPS officers, there is a 20.52 per cent deficiency in the number of IPS officers in position (as of January 1, 2016) in the State.

Both the central and state Governments have failed to address these issues and deficits. Despite this, SFs have managed to secure relative peace in the State. Whether this is sustainable, however, will depend on political sagacity, a commodity often in short supply.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
January 23-29, 2017

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
3
3

Manipur

2
0
0
2

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

0
1
5
6

Jharkhand

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

3
1
8
12

PAKISTAN

 

Sindh

1
0
0
1

Total (PAKISTAN)

1
0
0
1
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Prime Minister directs Police to raise engagement in combating terrorism and militancy: Minister Sheikh Hasina addressing senior Police officers at her office on January 24 on the occasion of the Police Week 2017 directed Police to raise engagement in combating terrorism and militancy. She said: "The people are our main strength. So you will have to raise people's involvement as it would help face any situation like fighting terrorism and militancy." Dhaka Tribune, January 25, 2017. 


INDIA

Naxalism is nearing its end, says Chhattisgarh Governor Balramji Das Tandon: Chhattisgarh Governor Balramji Das Tandon on January 26 said a wave of security and development coupled with the faith of people in Bastar region signals that Naxalism [Left Wing Extremism (LWE)] will come to an end soon in the State. Tandon was speaking at the 68th Republic Day function held at the Police Line grounds in Raipur District. He also added that demonetization has not only supported the country in fight against terror forces but also helped in controlling Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI -Maoist) activities in Chhattisgarh. The Indian Express, January 27, 2017. 


NEPAL

TRC commissioners voice over seeking term extension: Commissioners at the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) are voicing over the TRC's original tenure of two-years and held a meeting to discuss extension of its tenure by one year as per the existing law. Commissioner Madhavi Bhatta claimed before media that another commissioner, Sri Krishna Subedi, came up with an idea of not extending the tenure and instead preparing a report covering only the work done so far. However, Subedi said his only argument at the meeting was that the TRC should do a review of its tenure of two years before seeking any extension. My Republica, January 28, 2017. 


SRI LANKA

President is attempting to enact 'Sampanthan Constitution', says Joint Opposition MP Keheliya Rambukwella:Joint Opposition Member of Parliament (MP) Keheliya Rambukwella on January 23 said that President Maithripala Sirisena is attempting to enact a 'Sampanthan Constitution' by cancelling the first three clauses in the First Chapter of the current Constitution. He said the new Constitution was based by the proposals submitted by the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and Opposition Leader R. Sampanthan as a condition for the TNA's support to President Maithripala Sirisena at the 2015 Presidential election. Daily Mirror, January 24, 2017.   


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 
South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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Institute For Conflict Management



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