SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 13, September 26, 2016

PAKISTAN

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Generations at Risk
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In the latest terrorist attack on immunisation teams in Pakistan, Doctor Zakaullah Khan, a senior member of the polio vaccination campaign, was shot dead by unidentified motorcycle borne terrorists near his house in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), on September 11, 2016. Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JuA), a breakaway faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack. TTP-JuA ‘spokesman’ Ehsanullah Ehsan, while claiming responsibility, vowed to carry out more such attacks.

On April 20, 2016, Seven Police officials guarding polio workers were killed in two separate attacks in the Orangi Town of Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. Deputy Inspector General (DIG), West Zone, Feroz Shah disclosed that eight gunmen riding four motorcycles carried out the killings in two separate attacks in the neighbourhood: "The gunmen first opened fire on three Policemen in the streets of Orangi Town, killing them all... Later they shot dead four Policemen, who were sitting in a police mobile van" a few streets away.  

On March 27, 2016, Akhtar Khan, a supervisor in the Expanded Programme for Immunisation (EPI), was shot dead by terrorists while he was sitting in his private clinic in the Khuga Khel area in the Landikotal tehsil (revenue unit) of Khyber Agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Lashkar-i-Islam (LI) claimed responsibility for the killing. In January, terrorists had distributed pamphlets in the same locality warning health workers not to conduct the polio vaccination campaign and local parents to desist from sending their daughters to school.

The worst attack on the polio vaccination programme came on January 13, 2016, when a suicide bomber struck the Government polio vaccination centre in the Satellite Town area of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, killing 15 people, including 13 Police personnel, a Frontier Corps (FC) soldier and a civilian; another 25 were injured. Quetta DIG Syed Imtiaz Shah stated that most of the victims were Policemen who had been deployed to guard polio workers. TTP spokesman Muhammad Khurassani sent an email to journalists, claiming responsibility for the attack.

Attacks on polio vaccination workers as well as on Security Force (SF) personnel deployed for their security have once again raised concerns about the situation in the country. Opposition to all forms of inoculation grew after the CIA organised a fake vaccination drive by Dr. Shakil Afridi to track down al Qaeda's former chief Osama Bin Laden, who was killed in Abbottabad by US SEALs in 2011. Terrorists are not only killing health workers but also spreading negative propaganda against the polio vaccination campaign, including the canard that polio vaccination drops were part of a western plot to sterilise Muslims.

The polio vaccination campaign in Pakistan has not only suffered at the hands of terrorists but also suffered a socio-religious setback as a result of Islamist Fatwas (religious edicts). Though TTP had been pursuing an anti-polio campaign in Swat Valley since 2009, the first Fatwa came from cleric Maulvi Ibrahim Chisti in Muzaffargarh District of Punjab, on June 12, 2012. Declaring the anti-polio campaign “un-Islamic”, Chisti warned that a jihad (holy war) would be launched against polio vaccination teams.

Following Chisti’s ‘divine formulation’, TTP’s North Waziristan Agency (NWA) chapter ‘commander’ Hafiz Gul Bahadur issued a fatwa on June 18, 2012, denouncing vaccinations as an American ploy to sterilise the Muslim community and banned these in NWA until the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) stopped its drone strikes in the region. Bahadur’s declaration was a reflection of the consensus reached by the various terrorist outfits that formed the shura-e-mujahidin, and came two days before health workers had decided to accomplish their target of 161,000 children vaccinated in the area. A tripartite coalition of tribesmen-mullahs-terrorists appears to have crystallized against the ‘common enemy’ – the purported US conspiracy behind the vaccination drive as well as drone strikes. Tribal elder Qadir Khan declared, “Polio vaccination will be banned until drone attacks are stopped.” A similar line was reiterated by another tribal elder, who argued, “Drone martyrs so many children, while polio afflicts one or two out of hundreds of thousands.”

Polio immunisation programmes in Pakistan have been reeling under terrorist attacks with a total of 71 health workers and Policemen killed in the line of duty since 2012. The first such causalities came on July 20, 2012, when unidentified terrorists shot dead doctor Ishaq (45), associated with the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) polio prevention campaign, at Al-Asif Square in the Junejo Town of Karachi. The campaign received a major jolt in December 2012 during a three-day vaccination campaign, when attacks in Karachi, and the Peshawar, Nowshera and Charsadda Districts of KP killed eight vaccinators, six of them women. Four of these women were killed in less than an hour in seemingly coordinated attacks in Karachi.  

Some of the major attacks (each resulting in three or more fatalities) targeting the Polio immunisation programme include:

October 7, 2013: At least seven persons including four Policemen were killed and eight were injured as a bomb ripped through a function called to distribute anti polio material among the anti polio teams in the Suleman Khel area in the Union Council Bazidkhel of the Badhaber area of Peshawar.

January 21, 2014: At least seven persons were killed and nine injured in an explosion near a Police vehicle on its way for security duty for polio immunisation workers in the Sardheri Bazaar of Charsadda Town in KP.  

January 21, 2014:  Three polio workers were shot dead when unidentified terrorists opened fire on them in the Qayyumabad area of Korangi Town in Karachi.

March 1, 2014: 12 SF personnel of the Khyber Khasadar Force, who were providing security to a polio team, were killed in two separate blasts in the Lashora area of Jamrud tehsil in the Khyber Agency of FATA.

November 11: Three Levies officials were killed and two injured when an IED planted by the roadside blew up in the Chargo area of Salarazai tehsil in Bajaur Agency, FATA, while escorting polio teams.

November 26, 2014: Unidentified terrorists shot dead four polio workers, including three female health workers, and injured another three on the Eastern Bypass in the outskirts of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan.

March 17, 2015: Two female anti-polio campaign workers and a Policeman were killed in the Danna area of the Mansehra District in KP.

The restriction of the vaccination campaign under terrorist threat have kept Pakistan and Afghanistan as the only two countries remaining on the World Health Organization’s ‘polio-endemic nations’ list. Last year, Somalia became polio-free, and WHO removed Nigeria from the polio-endemic list in 2016. According to Endpolio Pakistan data, the situation during the last two years has improved, with just 13 polio cases in 2016 and 54 in 2015. 2014 had recorded the highest number of polio cases, 306, in 15 years, with health officials blaming the rise on attacks on immunisation teams.

Among the worst affected areas are KP, Balochistan and Karachi, mostly due to terrorist threat and the sheer number of children. On December 12, 2015, Senator Ayesha Raza Farooq, the Prime Minister’s focal person on polio, identified three “polio virus nurseries” from where the crippling disease continues to re-emerge and spread across the country. These nurseries are located in the Khyber-Peshawar conveyer belt, the Quetta block and Karachi, according to Senator Raza. These places “continue re-seeding the polio virus infection across the country and have become major problem areas for Pakistan’s Polio Eradication Programme continue to hamper efforts to root out the disease from the country. Senator Raza added that security issues were a leading factor behind the low impact of anti-polio campaigns in these areas.

Though the Government provides security during vaccination programmes, there is no security for the people associated with these programmes after they end. Despite precautions taken by people associated with the anti-polio campaign, the threat to life remains constant. Radical Islamism compounds the direct threat to life as a result of terrorism with the danger of a new generation exposed to this entirely preventable disease.  

INDIA

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Brus: Still Delayed Homecoming
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 20, 2016, Lalbiakzama, Additional Secretary, Mizoram Home Department, disclosed that the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), had approved ‘Road Map-V’ for Bru repatriation, proposed to commence from the first week of November 2016, and would soon release funds for expenses for the process. Though the expenditure for this phase was not projected, Lalbiakzama stated that the total proposed expenses for the repatriation was earlier estimated at INR 680 million  in the ‘Roadmap-IV’ of which over INR 97 million  was released by the Centre in 2015. "We have spent around Rs. One lakh [100,000] during the proposed repatriation in 2015," he said, adding, the State Government would ask more fund in case of further requirement. The effort to repatriate Bru families during June to September in 2015 had failed as not a single Bru came forward in their respective relief camps before the Mizoram officials, to be identified as bona fide residents of Mizoram.

On September 13, 2016, while speaking on the repatriation issue, Lalbiakzama noted, “The actual repatriation will commence soon after the completion of the identification process... a large number of Mizoram Government officials would go to the relief camps and conduct the identification process in all the relief camps simultaneously to ensure early commencement of the actual repatriation.”

 ‘Road Map-V’ was approved on July 1, 2016, and proposed to conduct identification of bona fide residents of Mizoram in the six-relief camps. Those willing to return would be resettled in 13 villages in the Mamit District of Mizoram.

Significantly, replying to an unstarred question in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Indian Parliament) on December 23, 2015, Union Minister of State in the Ministry of Home Affairs, Kiren Rijiju, disclosed, “Due to ethnic violence in the Western part of Mizoram in October, 1997, about 30,000 Brus (5,000 families) migrated to North Tripura in 1997-98. As on date, approximately 8573 Brus (1622 families) have been repatriated. The Ministry of Home Affairs with the co-operation of the State Governments of Mizoram and Tripura has taken measures for return of Brus to Mizoram.”

Ethnic-violence between Reang tribals (Brus) and Mizos in Western Mizoram had taken place during 1997-98. The immediate cause of the conflict (between ethnic Mizos and Bru tribesmen) was the killing of Lalzawmliana, a Mizo forest guard working inside the Dampa Tiger Reserve near Persang hamlet in Mamit District on October 21, 1997, by militants of the erstwhile Bru National Liberation Front (BNLF). Moreover, the demand for an Autonomous District Council (ADC) in the Bru-dominated areas of western Mizoram by the Bru National Union (BNU), a political organisation of Bru tribesmen that was formed in 1994, also aggravated the situation. The Reang/Bru Democratic Convention Party (RDCP), another Bru organisation, passed a resolution in this regard, subsequently provoking Mizo organisations like the Mizo Zirlai Pawl (MZP) and Young Mizo Association (YMA) to organise the violent attacks on Bru settlements. The traditional rivalry between ethnic Mizos and Bru tribesmen also added to the flare up.

Subsequently, the Bru migrants took shelter in the six relief camps – Asapara, Naisingpara, Hazacherra, Kaskau, Khakchangpara and Hamsapara – set up in the Kanchanpur and Panisagar Sub-Divisions of North Tripura.

Seeking a solution to the refugees’ problem, UMHA has been persuading the Government of Mizoram (GoM) to accept repatriation of Bru refugees from Tripura to Mizoram. As a result of these efforts, GoM signed an agreement on April 26, 2005, with BNLF, for laying down of arms and surrender of BNLF cadres, rehabilitation and resettlement of BNLF returnees and Bru refugees and a Special Development Package for the western belt of Mizoram, where these refugees are to be settled on their repatriation from Tripura to Mizoram.

195 BNLF cadres surrendered to GoM on July 25, 2005. In addition 53 cadres of Bru Liberation Front of Mizoram (BLFM), a BNLF splinter group, surrendered before GoM in March, 2006. These BNLF and BLFM cadres, along with their family members have since been rehabilitated by GoM. In October, 2006, another batch of 804 BLFM cadres surrendered to GoM. The surrender of BNLF/BLFM cadres to GoM paved way for repatriation of Bru refugees from Tripura to Mizoram.

The first effort to repatriate the Brus on November 16, 2009 was not only hampered by the killing of a Mizo youth, Zarzokima of Bungthuam village in the Mizoram-Tripura border by Bru militants on November 13, 2009, but also triggered another exodus of an additional 5,000 Brus.

The repatriation and resettlement process finally started in November 2010. Since then, six rounds of repatriation have taken place with poor success. The last attempt to repatriate the Brus between June 2, 2015, and September 4, 2015, also failed miserably, as only one Bru woman named Porati, native of Zawlnuam village in Mizoram, opted to be repatriated to Mizoram from relief camps in Tripura. Arrangements had been made to repatriate over 20,700 Brus belonging to 3,455 families.

Meanwhile, taking note of the Supreme Court's directives on the repatriation of the refugees, GoM submitted ‘Road Map-V’ to UMHA on May 17, 2016, proposing to repatriate over 20,700 Brus, including 11,500 minors belonging to 3,455 families.

Earlier, on June 3, 2016, Satyendra Garg, Joint Secretary (Northeast), UMHA, visited the Naisingpara relief camp in the Kanchanpur Subdivision of North Tripura District and appealed to the Brus to return to Mizoram en masse during the repatriation process in the first week of November 2016.

However, on September 11, 2016, A. Sawibunga, President, Mizoram Bru Displaced People's Forum (MBDPF), the lone organisation representing the refugees in this imbroglio, objected to the repatriation process, claiming, “We have not received the copy of the ‘Road Map’ for Bru repatriation prepared by the Mizoram Government and submitted to the Ministry of Home Affairs.” The Bru people in the relief camps have made various demands before being repatriated and those demands were not met by the Centre or GoM, hence, Sawibunga asserted, the Forum would consult the people staying in the relief camps after receipt of the official communication, and only then would the repatriation process be considered.

Earlier, on December 1, 2015, Bruno Msha, general secretary of the MBDPF, alleged that GoM was yet to accept their eight-point demands in writing. These included financial support of INR 200,000 for each tribal family, free rations for four years, contiguous resettlement of the returnees with adequate security, land titles for the tribal families who are to be allotted plots to build houses, and financial aid to purchase about 2.5 acres of farmland for each family. Msha also alleged, "The experience of a few hundred refugees is very bad after their return to their villages in western Mizoram from Tripura a few years back as the Mizoram Government did not fulfill its commitments."

Meanwhile, the Tripura Government has been asking the Centre and GoM to repatriate the refugees at the earliest as serious socio-economic and law and order problems have cropped up in the State.  Tension prevailed in Kanchanpur in North Tripura District on May 15, 2016, as angry tribal refugees, originally hailing from Mizoram, set ablaze around 10 houses of locals. The arson followed the suicide by a tribal man living in a refugee camp at Kanchanpur, after he was allegedly beaten up by locals. According to the Police the deceased, identified as Bhiguram Reang (36), allegedly committed suicide, after he was beaten up by local people who accused him of catching fish from a pond without seeking permission from the owner.

In a related development, the proposed second round of peace talks, scheduled to be held in Aizawl by mid-September, between the GoM and the Manipur-based Hmar People's Convention-Democracy (HPC-D) was deferred on September 18, 2016. According to an unnamed senior State Home Department official, the postponement was not due to any problem between the two sides, but due to ‘heavy engagement’ of the Government delegation on the proposed Bru repatriation and other pressing matters.

The HPC-D had carried out its last major attack on March 28, 2015, when its cadres had opened fire on a convoy accompanying a group of Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) near Zokhawthiang in Aizawl in Mizoram, in which three Policemen were killed and another two were injured. HPC-D which was the only active group in the otherwise peaceful State of Mizoram after the surrender of BNLF ceased its activities after May 11, 2016, when GoM accepted its peace overtures on the condition that the outfit would not engage in any anti-Government activity during the by-elections to the village councils on May 19, 2016.

The dispute over the Bru repatriation issue has remained insurmountable on account of some technical issues that crop up time and again. For instance, MBDPF claimed on September 11, 2016, that they have not received any official communication from the Mizoram or the Tripura Government that repatriation of Bru refugees staying in Tripura would resume from the first week of November 2016. MBDPF President A Sawibunga complained, "We also have not received the copy of the 'Road Map' for Bru repatriation prepared by the Mizoram Government and submitted to the Ministry of Home Affairs." Significantly, the Mizoram Government had announced on June 7, 2016, that it will start the process of repatriating 3,445 Bru families from six relief camps in North Tripura District from November 2016, in accordance with ‘Road Map-V’ prepared by the Home Department.

Nevertheless, Mizoram appears to be limping gradually towards the end of the tunnel. The political will of the ruling establishment is required to provide attractive terms as well as greater security to the refugees to return to their ancestral homes.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

KP

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)