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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 10, September 5, 2016

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
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Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Slow Burn
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At least 13 persons were killed and another 41 were injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up near the entrance of District and sessions court of Mardan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on September 2, 2016. Four lawyers and three Policemen were among the dead. District Police Officer (DPO), Mardan, Faisal Shahzad said the attacker detonated a hand grenade before exploding his suicide vest. The bomb contained eight kilograms of explosive material, the DPO said, adding that security arrangements at the site of the attack helped mitigate the damage. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) splinter, Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JuA), claimed responsibility for the attack.

If the suicide bomber had not been restricted at the security check point, the incident may well have been a replay of the August 8, 2016 Quetta Civil Hospital suicide attack, in which there were 55 lawyers among 74 people killed. The lawyer fraternity had gathered at the hospital to mourn the killing of Balochistan Bar Association (BBA) President Bilal Anwar Kasi in a gun attack earlier on August 8.

The Mardan court suicide attack comes just hours after terrorists of JuA attacked the Christian Colony in the Warsak Dam area of provincial capital Peshawar in the morning of September 2. One civilian, one Levies official and four suicide bombers were killed in an exchange of fire with Security Forces (SFs) in that incident. Two Frontier Corps (FC) personnel, a Policeman and two private guards sustained injuries in the attack. Firing reportedly began around 6 am (PST), when terrorists wearing suicide jackets attacked the colony. Two of the attackers detonated their suicide jackets, while the other two were killed by SFs. Director General (DG) of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Lieutenant General Asim Bajwa confirmed "all four suicide bombers were killed".

The attacks in Peshawar and Mardan belied the Army’s ‘report card’, presented a day earlier, on the success of military operations against terrorists in the tribal areas of the country. On September 1, 2016, ISPR DG Bajwa had given an exhaustive rundown of the ‘progress’ made against terrorists in the tribal areas of country in Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) which was launched in the North Waziristan Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on June 15, 2014. He also highlighted that Pakistan had suffered a cumulative loss of USD 106.98 billion in the war on terror between 2001 and 2015. “We are not doing it for anyone but ourselves,” he stressed. He added, further, that 3,500 terrorists had been eliminated during the course of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, while 537 SF personnel were killed, including 18 officers, 35 junior commissioned officers and 484 soldiers; and another 2,272 soldiers sustained injures. 

A comparative assessment of the first eight months of the current and previous year shows that the Army’s assessment of the prevailing security scenario in the Province is far from reality. Overall fatalities in KP have registered a 16.66 per cent increase in the first eight months of 2016 as compared to the previous year; from 138 killed in 2015 to 161 in 2016. Terrorist fatalities have, however, declined by 30 per cent, while fatalities among civilians registered a sharp 51.47 per cent increase. SF fatalities remained the same, at 30, in both years. 

The Provincial Government, however, also claims considerable improvement over the first six months of 2016. According to a handout issued in a meeting to review efforts taken to combat terrorism, which was chaired by Inspector General of Police (IGP) Nasir Khan Durrani on July 12, 2016, there has been a considerable decrease in incidents of terrorism, including Improvised Explosive Device (IED) and firing incidents, from January to June in KP. There have been 99 incidents of terrorism during this period, whereas the number of terrorism related incidents reported in 2013, 2014 and 2015 were 281, 292 and 134, respectively. Senior Superintendents of Police (SSP)-Operations Abbas Majeed Marwat also asserted that the outgoing year saw a sudden decrease in murders, street crimes, extortion and other crimes in Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP. The SSP Operations claimed that in 2015, Peshawar saw 221 cases terrorism registered, while the number came down to 91 in the first six months of 2016, owning to improved planning and Police operations in the city. According to official figures, more than 675 search and strike operations have been carried out in the urban and rural areas of the District during the course of seven months. 626 of these operations were in the January to June 16 period, during which 258 proclaimed offenders were arrested within the jurisdiction of 32 Police Stations. More than 15,000 arms and large quantities of ammunition were also seized across the city. These operations were categorized into three different types, according to SSP Operations Marwat: a total of 118 were conducted jointly with the Army; 124 were intelligence-based operations; and more than 365 were conducted solely by the Police. Some 4,000 places, including houses, hotels and hostels, were searched, resulting in the arrest of 3,287 suspects.

Nevertheless, there have been three major incidents in addition to the two on September 2, and the one on August 8, mentioned above, during this last eight months, undermining the Government’s claim of dramatic success:

January 20: TTP terrorists stormed the Bacha Khan University in Charsadda District, KP, killing at least 21 persons and causing injuries to 35 others.

March 7: A teenage suicide bomber killed at least 17 people, including six women, two children and two Policemen, and injured 23, at a Court complex in Shabqadar tehsil (revenue unit) of Charsadda District in KP.

March 15: At least 15 persons were killed and 25 were injured when a powerful bomb ripped through a Civil Secretariat bus, carrying Government employees, near Sunehri Masjid in Peshawar.

Significantly, KP Police have been facing an acute shortage of officers, which has direct bearing on their fight against terrorism and militancy. According to an official statement issued in Peshawar on August 11, 2016, the Provincial Police had approached the Home and Tribal Affairs Department, KP, to meet the shortage so they could maintain the operational capability of units established to curb terrorism. The Province needs five Additional Inspectors General (AIGs), where only two are available at present. In the rank of Deputy Inspector General (DIG), only eight officers are presently working against 18 sanctioned posts. Similarly, against 35 sanctioned posts of SSPs, only 17 are presently available. The shortage of officers in the rank of SP is glaring, with 78 sanctioned posts, and only 57 available officers. Keeping in view the threats and recent terrorist attacks, KP Police have urged the Home and Tribal Affairs Department to approach the Federal Government to post Police Service of Pakistan (PSP) officers in the Province to meet the deficiency and cope with the challenges of terrorism. 

KP Police has also suffered tremendous losses since terrorism took the Province in its iron grip in 2006. On August 4, 2016, Chief Minister Parvez Khattak disclosed that as many as 1,587 Policemen had lost their lives in suicide attacks, bomb blasts, ambushes, encounters, rocket and mortar barrages and other incidents, since 1970. Over 80 per cent of these fatalities were among the constabulary. During the last almost 46 years, one AIG (Safwat Ghayur); two DIGs (Malik Mohammad Saad and Abid Ali); seven Superintendents of Police (SPs); one Assistant Superintendent of Police (ASP); 24 Deputy Superintendents of Police (DSP); as well as 25 Inspectors, 115 Sub Inspectors (SI), 131 Assistant Sub Inspectors (ASI), 148 head constables and 1,133 constables have been killed in the Province.

Casualties recorded a sudden increase after 2006, when terrorists spilled over to the settled Districts from FATA. According to official Police statistics, as many as 1,204 Policemen have been killed in attacks in KP since 2006 – 28 in 2006; 107 in 2007; 176 in 2008; 207 in 2009; 101 in 2010; 148 in 2011; 94 in 2012; 133 in 2013; 108 in 2014; and 60 in 2015. At least 42 Policemen have already been killed during the current year, till July 20, 2016. Peshawar tops the list among the 25 Districts of the Province, with over 340 Police casualties, followed by Swat where 123 Police officials have died. In Bannu, 120 persennel have lost their lives, while 100 have died in Dera Ismail Khan.

After nearly a decade of counter-terrorism operations, including more than two continuous years of Zarb-e-Azb, the threat of terrorism persists, claiming increasing numbers of civilian lives and a continuing toll of SF personnel as well. Terrorism and the state’s responses have destroyed all semblances of normalcy and security in KP, even as the Province and its neighbouring FATA region remains the core launching grounds of Pakistan’s terrorist campaigns in Afghanistan through its proxies, prominently including the Taliban and the Haqqani Network. Pakistan’s persistent duplicity and its consequent blowback remain the principal dynamic creating spaces for terrorism across borders in South Asia.

SRI LANKA
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Reconciliation and Waywardness
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 28, 2016, Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera, while addressing a gathering in Point Pedro in the Northern Province, observed,
We hope to be able to present the Constitution in Parliament before the next budget. We have been busy creating or placing a foundation for a new Sri Lanka based on the three pillars of democratization, reconciliation and development. It is time to come to terms with the fact that Sri Lanka is a multi-racial, multi-religious, multi-lingual country.

The 2017 Government budget is expected to be presented in Parliament mid-November 2016. With the aim to replace the existing 1978 Constitution, the Maithripala Sirisena Government initiated the process of drafting a new Constitution in January 2016.

Earlier, giving an assurance that the Government was planning to finalize judicial mechanisms to probe war abuses by 2017, the Foreign Affairs Minister stated, on July 6, 2016, that the reconciliation process based on four pillars – truth seeking, accountability, reparation and non-recurrence – is moving forward and the Government is in the process of setting up the needed mechanisms. Significantly, on August 4, 2016, the Cabinet approved SLR 971 million to resettle the remaining families of Internally Displaced Persons (IDP). According to the Government Information Department, there are 31 welfare centers in Jaffna District with 936 families and one welfare center in Vavuniya District with 97 families. The three decades of civil war between the Government forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) ended in May 2009, generating massive displacement of an estimated 300,000 IDPs in the North.

On August 11, 2016, Parliament passed the Office on Missing Persons (OMP) Bill to help several thousands of families of missing persons across Sri Lanka to discover the fate of their loved ones and the circumstances under which they went missing. According to the Government, the OMP will be composed of commissioners and officers of the highest moral integrity, constituted at the highest level by the President, on recommendation of the Constitutional Council. Separately, the Presidential Commission Investigating Cases of Missing Persons (PCICMP) established on August 15, 2013, handed over its final report to the Presidential Secretariat on August 14, 2016. The Commission had received 16,213 complaints from civilians and another 5,000 complaints from relatives of missing Security Force (SF) personnel. Further, on August 26, 2016, the Parliamentary Oversight Committee of the Rehabilitation and Resettlement Ministry decided to grant bank loans at concessionary rates to ex-LTTE cadres for self-employment purposes. About 12,000 LTTE combatants surrendered to the military during the final stages of the war and underwent rehabilitation, which included the provision of vocational training skills.

Further, pledging to resolve all land issues in the Northern Province within three months, President Maithripala Sirisena on September 2, 2016, stated, “We, as a government should understand the grievances of the people. They don’t need lands owned by the military. They ask for their own lands. We have achieved remarkable progress on resettlement. But, there are some problems that need to be resolved. At this point, we have informed all IDPs in writing about the status of their lands. We have to admit that there is a delay on the part of the Survey Department as they do not have sufficient human capital to fast track the process.”

However, the Northern Province has been stressing federalism as a solution to devolve power in the Island nation. On April 23, 2016, the Northern Provincial Council (NPC) passed a Bill with a majority vote to establish the Northern and Eastern Provinces into one federal ruling system.

Separately, on June 21, 2016, Northern Province Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran responding to reporters in Jaffna District, asserting that the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), a political alliance representing the Tamil minority, strongly opposes domestic mechanisms to probe war crime allegations. The Chief Minister insisted that a domestic mechanism can be considered only if international judges are present. According to the Chief Minister, there was, at present, no atmosphere in the country for justice to be done, not just in courts but everywhere else as well.

Further, in an attempt to present a picture of unity by the NPC on Constitutional reforms, on July 10, 2016, Wigneswaran, fielded its Leader of Opposition S. Thavarajah to place his case on the importance of adopting federal system before the Steering Committee of the Constitutional Assembly (CA) , which was approved by the Parliament unanimously, without a vote, on March 9, 2016, to draft a new Constitution for the island. Once again, urging re-merger of the Northern and Eastern provinces, Wigneswaran argued, on August 7, 2016, “The Government should take action to re-merge the North and East, the only cultural homelands of the Tamil people. If re-merged, the North and East will not only be culturally secure and power could be devolved in a manner suitable to the provinces through a federal system of administration. This fact should be accepted by the government and the Muslim leaders and the re-merger should be carried out sooner than later (sic).”

Meanwhile, on August 17, 2016, demanding an OMP in the Northern Province, residents of Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu Districts staged a protest, saying that setting up the OMP in Colombo will not provide any benefit to the people of the North, and that the Government should set up the OMP in Kilinochchi or Mullaitivu. The protesters pointed out that most of the missing people were from the North, and indeed, a majority was from these two Districts. They further noted that the families of the missing would have to bear huge expenses to come to Colombo to present their grievances or lodge complaints if the OMP was set up in Colombo.

Urging Sri Lanka to rein in the military and prosecute war crimes, the United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, in the annual report, stated on June 28, 2016, "The early momentum established in investigating emblematic cases must be sustained, as early successful prosecutions would mark a turning point from the impunity of the past. Continuing allegations of arbitrary arrest, torture and sexual violence, as well as more general military surveillance and harassment, must be swiftly addressed, and the structures and institutional culture that promoted those practices be dismantled." At least 250 security detainees were still being held under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), the UN report noted.

Similarly, asking Sri Lanka to follow its agreements with the international community to ensure accountability for the human rights abuses during the decades-long armed conflict, Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesman for the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon observed, on July 12, 2016, "There are issues between the international community and Sri Lanka and agreements to ensure accountability. And we hope those are followed." Further, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in a report released on July 26, 2016, after conducting a 14-month island-wide assessment between October 2014 and November 2015, noted, "The years that have passed since the armed conflict in Sri Lanka ended in 2009, did not bring solace to the families of over 16,000 persons who, according to the ICRC's records, remain missing." Meanwhile, the Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) member and country rapporteur for Sri Lanka, Jose Francisco Cali Tzay, on August 26, 2016, stated that the Tamil population in Sri Lanka continued to suffer discrimination, including through lack of access to public services in their own language, as the Police agents in the North do not speak Tamil and people continue to live in fear due to the military presence.

However, commending the Government for taking steps to pursue the truth-seeking and accountability mechanisms and to deal with the grievances of people in the North and the East, Ban Ki-moon, who toured the conflict affected North on September 2, 2016, welcomed the establishment of an OMP and the process to reform the Constitution to achieve a political settlement, recalling, "This is my first visit to Sri Lanka since 2009, when I saw great suffering and hardship. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced and in need of humanitarian aid after the terrible conflict that tore the country apart."

The Sri Lankan Government’s efforts at rehabilitation in the wake of the war against the LTTE have been exemplary, and the willingness to undertake a comprehensive Constitutional reform demonstrates an eagerness to create an environment of enduring peace. There are, however, deep vested interests in the international community and among remnants of Tamil separatist formations who seek to keep confrontation alive, seeking racial segregation, rather than integration, or the “democratization, reconciliation and development” that the new Constitution seeks. Disruptive elements on both sides of the Tamil – Sinhala divide, backed by international mischief, continue to undermine sustained efforts by the Sri Lanka Government, and by the dominant elements in the political leadership, to consolidate a hard won peace.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
August 22-28, 2016

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

0
0
3
3

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
2
3

Jammu and Kashmir

0
1
0
1

Meghalaya

0
0
1
1

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

1
1
2
4

Total (INDIA)

2
2
5
9

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

5
7
6
18

FATA

1
0
0
1

Punjab

0
0
5
5

Sindh

44
0
2
6

Total (PAKISTAN)

10
7
13
30
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Dhaka’s Gulshan café attack mastermind Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury among three militants killed during ‘Operation Hit Strong 27’: Three militants, including Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury, a mastermind of Dhaka’s Gulshan café attack, were killed during a joint forces’ raid at a house in Narayanganj Sadar upazila in Narayanganj District in the morning of August 27. Identities of the two other militants are yet to be ascertained. The Daily Star, August 27, 2016.

Cabinet approves life imprisonment for spreading negative propaganda through digital devices against Liberation War and Father of Nation: The Cabinet on August 22 approved the draft of ‘Digital Security Law, 2016’ proposing life imprisonment for spreading negative propaganda through digital devices against the Liberation War and the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The approval was given at the regular Cabinet meeting held at Bangladesh Secretariat with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in the chair. The Independent, August 23, 2016.


INDIA

US gives new information on Pakistan’s hand in Pathankot attack, says report: The US has handed over proof confirming that the January 2 strike at Pathankot Airbase in Punjab emanated from Pakistan. The US has informed the National Investigation Agency (NIA) that the IP addresses of Facebook accounts of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) handlers who masterminded the attack and IP address of the website of the outfit's financial arm, Al Rahmat Trust, are located in Pakistan. The probe revealed that Facebook groups accessed by friends of JeM handler Kashif Jaan were related to jihad and JeM and contained photos of the four killed terrorists - Nasir Hussain, Hafiz Abu Bakar, Umar Farooq and Abdul Qayum. Times of India, August 29, 2016.

India tells Pakistan to extradite Dawood Ibrahim, says report: India on August 26 asked Pakistan to extradite designated global terrorist Dawood Ibrahim, whose presence in Pakistan has been confirmed after the United Nations (UN) approved six of his addresses provided by India to the UN. Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Vikas Swarup said that in the latest update of the list on Dawood, who is wanted in India for orchestrating the 1993 serial bomb blasts, the UN has validated six of the nine addresses in Pakistan frequented by him. New Indian Express, August 27, 2016.

Kashmir unrest was 'pre-planned' and only handful involved, says CM Mehbooba Mufti: Contending that the unrest in Kashmir was "pre-planned", Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister (CM) Mehbooba Mufti on August 22, said that a "handful of people" were deliberately keeping the Valley on the boil while 95 per cent people were peace-loving and should not be punished for the fault of 5 per cent. CM Mehbooba expressed pain that children are being used as a shield by "vested interests" while attacking camps and posts of Security Forces (SFs) to incite them, as a result of which innocent kids become a casualty. She also sent out a message to those raising "pro-azadi" slogans, asking them to see the condition of Muslims in Islamic countries like Pakistan, Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan even though these nations have "freedom". Times of India, August 23, 2016.

22 bank accounts in South Kashmir under NIA lens for terror funding: The National Investigation Agency (NIA), which is examining around 22 bank accounts in south Kashmir that received unaccounted money and saw withdrawals coinciding with the current unrest in the valley, will probe possible links of the account holders with Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) or its cadres, Kashmiri separatists and terror financiers based in Pakistan. NIA sources indicated that in the event of the preliminary enquiry unearthing a direct link between the payments/disbursals and the ongoing protests, related offences may be added to the existing NIA case relating to JKART (Jammu Kashmir Affectees Relief Trust), a Pakistan-based frontal outfit of HM charged with funding terror activities in India. Times of India, August 26, 2016.

Government to crack down on 400 Jammu and Kashmir 'troublemakers': In a bid to break the cycle of violence in Jammu and Kashmir, central agencies have identified 400 local leaders fuelling protests and shared their names with the State Police for an immediate crackdown, including detention under the Public Safety Act. Intelligence officials said the list included overground workers of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) and other terrorist outfits, besides local-level functionaries of Tehreek-e-Hurriyat (TeH), the All Party Hurriyat Conference-Geelani (APHC-G) of Syed Ali Shah Geelani, and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). Times of India, August 27, 2016.

Myanmar assures that it will not allow any insurgent group to use its territory against India, says report: Myanmar on August 22 gave an assurance that it will not allow any insurgent group to use its territory against India. "Myanmar leadership assured that they will not allow any insurgent groups to use any territory for action against India, (that) they all recognised is a friendly country which has stood by people of Myanmar and they look forward to a very productive partnership with India as Myanmar continues on its journey of peace, progress and development," Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Vikas Swarup said. Times of India, August 23, 2016.


NEPAL

It is meaningless to amend Constitution without implementing effectively, says CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli: Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) Chairman KP Sharma Oli on August 25 said that it is meaningless to amend Constitution without implementing effectively. Oli said, "It is meaningless to amend constitution without setting the purpose. My party has not been approached formally on amendment of constitution. But I've heard that some parties agreed to amend it." Republica, August 26, 2016.


PAKISTAN

Pakistan Army committing 'tsunami of rights violations' in Balochistan, says BRP President Brahamdagh Bugti: Pakistani forces are engaged in a "tsunami of human rights violations" in Balochistan, said Switzerland-based Baloch Republican Party (BRP) President Brahamdagh Bugti on August 26 while seeking help from the international community, including India. Brahumdagh Bugti, president of the Baloch Republican Party and the grandson of Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti who was killed in an encounter with the Pakistani army 10 years ago, said, "Pak forces are engaged in tsunami of human rights violations. We do not want to live with Pakistan anymore." Times of India, August 27, 2016.

Government proposes to replace FCR with tribal areas Rewaj Act in FATA: During a detailed news briefing at the Foreign Office on August 25, Prime Minister’s Adviser on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz said that the Government has proposed a plan to replace the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas with a new Tribal Areas Rewaj Act. “Today I met Senate chairperson and speaker of the National Assembly, and now the reforms will be debated in Parliament,” he said. Aziz heads a committee, constituted by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in November 2015, to work out a viable reform package to integrate FATA into the mainstream. Tribune, August 26, 2016.

Terrorists and their facilitators are being eliminated in combing operations, says CoAS General Raheel Sharif: Chief of the Army Staff (CoAS) General Raheel Sharif while addressing the troops engaged in combing operations in Kurram Agency on August 23 said that terrorists and their facilitators are being eliminated due to combing operations of Security Forces. “As we consolidate gains of emphasis is on rooting out all their sleeper cells and a network of facilitators from Fata and across rest of the country,” General Raheel said. The News, August 24, 2016. 


SRI LANKA

Government has fast-tracked the process of drafting the new Constitution, say sources: Sources on August 26 said that the Government has fast-tracked the process of drafting the new Constitution. With this in view, the Steering Committee which is drafting the constitutional proposals has decided to hold meeting on consecutive days so as to complete its task as early as possible. Four out of six sub-committees appointed to work on different aspects of the Constitution have submitted their reports to the Steering Committee headed by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The remaining two subcommittees have been requested to submit their reports by September 3. Daily Mirror, August 27, 2016.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 
South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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Institute For Conflict Management



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