SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 29, January 18, 2016

SRI LANKA

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A Year of Promises
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In a nationally televised Pongal (Tamil Harvest Festival) ceremony, on January 15, 2016, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said his Government was ready to devolve power to minority Tamils under a new Constitution. "We are ready to devolve power (to minority Tamils) and protect democracy. The Constitutional Assembly will discuss with all, including (Tamil-dominated) provincial councils to have a new Constitution. We will do that in a transparent manner," he said, adding that more civilian lands would soon be freed from military control and that the official language policy will be implemented where Sinhala and Tamil would be accorded the official language status. He also vowed to bring to justice all perpetrators of war crimes committed towards the end of the country's civil war in 2009.

Earlier, on January 9, 2016, the Sri Lankan Parliament began a process to formulate a new Constitution with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe presenting a resolution to set up a Constitutional Assembly (CA) of all members for the purpose: “We will have the whole Parliament formulating the Constitution unlike the previous instances when the Constitutions were drafted outside Parliament.” The new Constitution will replace the Constitution adopted in 1978.

Similarly, President Maithripala Sirisena declared, in his address, that the time had come to formulate a new Constitution in keeping with the demands of the 21^st Century, but also warned that extremist elements both in the south and the north may try to scuttle the process. 

In another development, which is expected to have a far reaching impact on the reconciliation process, President Sirisena promised, on January 3, 2016, to provide land to settle internally displaced persons (IDPs): “It is an ambitious target, but I will see that all the internally displaced people are given land to build homes... For many people the main issue was lack of land and that is something we will resolve in the next six months." He added that he would travel to Jaffna this month to formally hand over about 700 acres of land as part of the plan. Most of the resettled families are still staying in welfare camps and want to be resettled in their original places of dwelling.

These developments are in continuation with what was witnessed through 2015. The ‘year of renewed hope’, as 2015 was described, commenced with a dramatic turnaround of political fortunes in the island nation. Pallewatte Gamaralalage Maithripala Yapa Sirisena, leader of the New Democratic Front (NDF), emerged victorious in a keenly contested Presidential Election held on January 8, 2015. Sirisena secured 6,217,162 votes (51.28 per cent) against 5,768,090 votes (47.58 per cent) polled by Mahinda Rajapaksa, the incumbent President and candidate of the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA). Sirisena took oath as the Seventh Elected Executive President of the country on January 9. The NDF is a conglomeration of several political formations opposing the UPFA, including the main opposition United National Party (UNP). UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe became the new Prime Minister, replacing D.M. Jayaratne.

Later, in the Parliamentary Elections held on August 17, 2015, voters gave a fractured mandate, with none of the parties securing a simple majority. UNP, led by incumbent PM Wickremesinghe, secured 106 seats, falling seven short of simple majority in a 225-memebr House; the SLFP secured just 95 seats. The main Tamil political party, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won 16 seats; and the main Marxist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP, People's Liberation Front) won six.

However, following a historic agreement on August 20, 2015, between UNP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the incumbent PM Wickremesinghe on August 21, 2015, took oath as the 26^th Prime Minister of the island nation. Wickremesinghe was sworn in as Prime Minister for the fourth time [having served earlier tenures between May 17, 1993, and August 19, 1994; December 9, 2001, and April 2, 2004; and January 9, 2015, and August 20, 2015]. Later in the day, the MoU was signed by the two parties.

UNP and SLFP are the two major political forces in Sri Lanka, with a long history of bitter rivalry, and who engaged fiercely in the Parliamentary Elections on August 17, 2015. However, they reached a compromise as equations within the SLFP had changed dramatically. The party has virtually split into two factions – one led by Sirisena and the other led by Mahinda Rajapaksa. It was during the January 2015 Presidential Elections that Sirisena revolted against his political master, then incumbent President Rajapaksa, who was also the head of SLFP. Though Sirisena was expelled from the party, he contested a successful election against Rajapaksa as a 'common candidate' for NDF. Subsequent to his loss, Rajapaksa resigned as the head of SLFP and was succeeded by Sirisena. The latter, however, failed to establish full authority over the party. This became apparent when Rajapaksa successfully contested the Parliamentary Elections as the 'Prime Ministerial candidate' of the SLFP, despite Sirisena's direct opposition. Though reports indicated that most of SLFP’s new Members of Parliament (MPs) were Rajapaksa supporters, the split verdict had put them in a quandary and forced them to seek a compromise.

Though Rajapaksa had faced mounting criticism for exercising unbridled power, the country had seen all-round development during his tenure, more so after the restoration of peace following Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)’s defeat. This included dramatic progress in the Northern Province, the epicentre of war, where, according to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, the highest rate of economic growth was recorded, with Provincial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 27.8 per cent, as against a national average of 8.3 per cent in 2011; and 25.9 percent in 2012, as against a national average of 6.4 per cent. His failure was in his inability to address the issue of national reconciliation, despite sustained rhetoric on the subject.

Rajapaksa’s immediate response to the outcome of the Parliamentary elections of 2010 had been encouraging: “The assured majority in Parliament given by the voters encourages the Government to proceed with its policies for the strengthening of peace and reconciliation, reconstruction, greater infrastructure development, increased investment in identified areas of growth, and the overall development of the country to make it the centre of economic and social progress in South Asia.” His Government had also successfully rehabilitated most of the former LTTE cadres, with only 49 hardcore LTTE cadres out of 11,800, remaining in detention centres; and resettled all most all the 263,221 IDPs. Nevertheless, his talks on reconciliation, particularly with the main Tamil party, the TNA, were always marred by suspicion, and had remained stalled since January 27, 2012.

Although the talks between the TNA and the new Government are yet to begin, TNA spokesman M. A. Sumanthiran had stated on September 4, 2015, “We will talk to the Government straightaway with a view to resolving the long outstanding matter,” adding that the Tamil people were happy with the appointment of TNA leader R. Sampanthan as the Opposition Leader of Parliament. TNA was recognized as the Main Opposition and its leader Sampanthan was designated as Opposition Leader on September 3, 2015. Prior to this, Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) leader A. Amirthalingam was the only Tamil politician who had served as Opposition Leader (from 1977 to 1983). Sampanthan was also an MP of the main opposition at that time.

Also welcoming Colombo’s decision to co-sponsor a draft resolution (A/HRC/30/L.29) that was tabled at the 30^th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva, the TNA in a statement on September 25, 2015, declared, “We are of the view that the draft provides a constructive starting point for what will inevitably be a long road to reconciliation."

Indeed, in a significant shift in policy, on September 24, 2015, Colombo had decided to co-sponsor the draft resolution titled ‘Promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka’, based on the findings of the OISL [OHCHR (Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights) Investigation on Sri Lanka]. The draft resolution had mentioned “the importance of participation in a Sri Lankan judicial mechanism, including the Special Counsel’s office, of Commonwealth and other foreign judges, defence lawyers, and authorized prosecutors and investigators”.

Buckling under domestic pressure, however, Colombo backtracked later, as PM Wickremesinghe on September 27, 2015, declared that Sri Lanka's domestic mechanism to probe the alleged rights abuses during the military conflict with the LTTE cannot have foreign judges due to constitutional impediments, and that his Government could “only act within the framework of the Sri Lankan Constitution, which does not allow foreign judges to operate in the country.” He added, however, “Sri Lanka will seek the consultations of foreign judges and lawyers for the domestic mechanism to probe the alleged rights violations…”

Though Colombo was forced to backtrack from its original position, even conceding to consultation with “foreign judges and lawyers for the domestic mechanism” demonstrated its resolve to placate the Tamils. The Tamils recognize the Government’s compulsions – in case Rajapaksa, who will be at receiving end if foreign judges join investigations, chooses to create political instability in an effort to secure control of the Government after a hiatus. Significantly, the previous Rajapaksa regime had vehemently opposed a strident campaign by the international community, particularly western nations, to interfere in the country's internal affairs in the guise of 'investigation of war crimes' through the adoption of such resolutions.

The peace attained after a bloody endgame that terminated in the comprehensive defeat of the LTTE in May 2009, has been sustained through 2015. Sri Lanka did not record a single incident of killing in 2015, a trend evident since November 2009, barring a lone of incident reported in 2014, when on April 11, a Security Forces (SFs) team had launched a cordon and search operation in the forest area off Padaviya in Anuradhapura District. The unit was fired upon by militants hiding in the forest. SFs killed three armed local LTTE leaders, reportedly in retaliatory fire.

Developments through 2015 and early 2016 suggest greater stabilization and reinforce prospects for an enduring peace in Sri Lanka. Challenges remain, of course, and international pressures have been distorting processes of reconciliation for some time now. The drafting of a new Constitution offers both a challenge and an opportunity to address the grievances of a long, twisted and violent history.

INDIA

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Mizoram: Unresolved Challenges
Deepak Kumar Nayak.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 8, 2016, a meeting convened by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on the issue of repatriation of Brus in six relief camps in Tripura remained inconclusive. “We informed the Home Ministry officials that the Brus refused to return to Mizoram despite repeated arrangements made by Mizoram Government in the relief camps for the repatriation,” Mizoram Chief Secretary Lalmalsawma stated. Lalmalsawma also disclosed that the time or venue of the next meeting was not fixed to discuss the issue in future as the Mizoram Government is of the opinion that it would be a futile exercise if more repatriation attempts are made in future.

Conversely, Bruno Msha, general secretary of the Mizoram Bru Displaced People's Forum (MBDPF), the lone organisation representing the refugees in this imbroglio, alleged on December 1, 2015, that the Mizoram Government was yet to accept their eight-point demands in writing. These included financial support of INR 200,000 for each tribal family, free rations for four years, contiguous resettlement of the returnees with adequate security, land titles for the tribal families who are to be allotted plots to build houses, and financial aid to purchase about 2.5 acres of farmland for each family. Msha also alleged, "The experience of a few hundred refugees is very bad after their return to their villages in western Mizoram from Tripura a few years back as the Mizoram government did not fulfill its commitments."

Indeed, the last attempt to repatriate the Brus between June 2, 2015, and September 4, 2015, had failed miserably, as only one Bru woman opted to be repatriated to Mizoram from relief camps in Tripura. Arrangements had been made to repatriate over 20,700 Brus belonging to 3,455 families, who had fled Mizoram in the wake of ethnic clashes in the 1990s.

This contentious issue appears slated to linger, with neither side demonstrating the requisite seriousness.

Meanwhile, after a long hiatus, Mizoram recorded a major (resulting in three or more fatalities) insurgency-linked incident in 2015. On March 28, 2015, Hmar People's Convention – Democracy (HPC-D) militants ambushed a vehicle carrying R.L. Pianmawia, Chairman of the 'Mizoram Assembly Committee on Government Assurances', and two other Members of the State Assembly – Lalthanliana and lone woman legislator Vanlalawmpuii Chawngthu – at Zokhawthiang in Aizawl District. The legislators, accompanied by State Assembly officials, were on a tour when they were attacked. Though the legislators escaped unhurt, three of the Security Force (SF) personnel protecting them were killed. Four SF personnel and one State Assembly staffer sustained injuries in the attack. The militants escaped with two AK-47 assault rifles and four pistols taken from the slain Policemen.

The last major attack in the State was recorded on September 2, 2008, when four Police personnel, were killed when suspected HPC-D militants had ambushed a vehicle at Saipum village in the Kolasib District. Three other Police personnel were injured, while civilians who were in the vehicle had escape unhurt.

In the interim, the State has recorded only four insurgency-related fatalities – all four civilians – in three separate incidents. The last incident of killing was reported on October 15, 2014, when bodies of two non-tribals, suspected to be those of a truck driver and his helper, both believed to be from the Kamrup District in Assam, were recovered from Tuikhurhlu in Aizawl District. No further detail was available in this regard. The last militant killing was recorded on February 26, 2008, when Thangcha Kipgen, ‘president’ of the Kuki Liberation Army (KLA), was killed in a hotel room in capital Aizawl in an alleged factional fight.

The killing on March 28, 2015, was the lone fatality reported through 2015. There were, moreover, no incidents of explosion or arson through the year, as against three incidents of explosion in 2014. Further, according to the State Home Department, there had not been a single incident of abduction through 2015 (till May 2015). SATP did not record any incident of abduction thereafter.

SFs arrested six militants (all HPC-D cadres), including a 'commander', identified as Paul Laldemloa, in 2015. Police also arrested two civilians at Bilkhawthlir village in Kolasib District on September 17, 2015, when they were on their way to allegedly hand over INR 12,000 to HPC-D militants. In 2014, Police had arrested five HPC-D militants.

Indeed, the peace established in 1986 in Mizoram has substantially prevailed since. During the 24 years between 1992 and 2015, the State, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, has recorded 49 insurgency-related fatalities, including 15 civilians, 25 SF personnel and nine militants, an average of just over two fatalities in a year, underlining the fact that a lasting peace has been established.

Several peripheral challenges, nevertheless, persist. `Small tremors of militant activity continue. In addition to the March 28, 2015, attack, HPC-D militants had also attacked a Police Outpost at Khawlian in Aizawl District on March 5, 2015, but there were no casualties in the incident.

Some incidents of recovery of arms and ammunition were also reported, suggesting that efforts to revive militancy in the State continue. In one such incident, on October 23, 2015, acting on a tip-off, Assam Rifles personnel conducted a raid in an area between Keitum and Khawlailung villages in Serchhip District and seized eight assault rifles (five AK-47s and three AK-59s) and 12 magazines from two Mizo men. The duo was arrested.  

HPC-D remains the biggest threat. Admitting that the atmosphere of peace in the state was disrupted by the ambush on March 28, 2015, Mizoram Chief Minister (CM) Lal Thanhawla, in his Independence Day speech on August 15, 2015, disclosed, "Counter operation was launched by the Mizoram Police and in the ensuing operation self-styled Sergeant Malsawmkima of the HPC-D, a Police deserter, was killed near the Manipur border on May 8." He assured the people of the State that the Government would leave no stone unturned in maintaining peace and tranquillity. On May 8, 2015, Mizoram Police Commandos had gunned down H.C. Malsawmkima at Tiaulian in the Churachandpur District. The militant was a former constable of the Mizoram Armed Police, who ran away from the Sakawrdai Border Police Outpost in July 2014 to join HPC-D. He had fled with an AK-47 rifle and an INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) rifle.

On December 2, 2015, worried about recent incidents, the Mizoram Government announced a cash reward of INR 100,000 each for anyone giving information leading to the arrest of five militants of HPC-D who were involved in the March 28, 2015, ambush. The militants were identified as Thanglawmvel, Rinsang and Lalrohuol, all of them from Manipur; and Lalchawimawia and Jacob, both from Mizoram.

While the residual HPC-D insurgency is a lingering problem, the continued failure of the State to deal with the drug trade and use is worrisome. According to Mizoram’s Excise & Narcotics Department (END), in addition to 38 drug related deaths in 2014, the State recorded 27 such deaths in 2015. Of the deaths in 2015, nine died due to heroin addiction, four due to abuse of spasmo proxyvon and parvon spas, while 14 died due to consumption of a mixture of different kinds of intoxicating drugs. At least 1,342 people, including 141 women, have died in the State due to drugs since 1984, when the first drug-related death was reported, it added. The drug trade and use have had persistent overlaps with organised criminal and terrorist activity in the State and region.

Despite an enduring peace since 1986, Mizoram has failed to address residual problems, including the return and resettlement of displaced populations, as well as the remnants of insurgency, arms smuggling and drug trafficking. While these may be dismissed by the ruling establishments as mere irritants, they have a potential for disproportionate escalation in unpredictable circumstances.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)