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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 22, November 30, 2015

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

BANGLADESH
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Justice at the Gallows
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 22, 2015, condemned war crimes convicts Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed (67) and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Standing Committee member Salauddin Quader Chowdhury (66) were hanged simultaneously at Dhaka Central Jail at 12:55 am. Earlier, on November 21, 2015, President Abdul Hamid had rejected their applications seeking Presidential clemency, which they had filed after losing all legal battles against their death sentences on charge of crimes against humanity committed during the Liberation War of 1971.

On July 17, 2013, the International Crimes Tribunal-2 (ICT-2) had sentenced Mojaheed to death after finding him guilty on five of seven charges against him, including the killing of eminent journalist Serajuddin Hossain in Dhaka; mass killings at village Baidyadangi in Faridpur District; the killing of Badi, Rumi, Jewel, Azad and Altaf Mahmud at Nakhalpara Army Camp in Dhaka; the killing of intellectuals in Dhaka; and the killing of Hindu civilians and persecution in Faridpur District. He had filed an appeal with the Appellate Division of the Supreme Court (SC) on August 12, 2013. On June 16, 2015, the Appellate Division upheld Mojaheed’s death sentence.

Similarly, on October 1, 2013, ICT-1 sentenced Salauddin to death finding him guilty on nine of 23 charges including the Madhya Gohira Genocide, in which the Hindu community was targeted on April 13, 1971; the murder of Nutun Chandra Singha; genocide at Jogotmollopara, in which 32 Hindus were killed; the murder of Nepal Chandra and three others; the genocide at Unsuttarpara, in which an estimated 70 Hindus were killed; the killing of Satish Chandra Palit; the killing of Mozaffar and his son; abduction and torture of Nizamuddin Ahmed; and abduction and torture of Saleh Uddin. He had lodged an appeal with the Appellate Division on October 29, 2013, but his death sentence was upheld on July 29, 2015.

On September 30, 2015, the Appellate Division released its full verdicts upholding the death penalty of Mojaheed and Salauddin, leaving them with the option of seeking a review of the verdicts. Expectedly, both Mojaheed and Salauddin had filed their respective review pleas on October 14, 2015. Again, the Appellate Division dismissed their review petitions on November 18, 2015, with all four judges – Chief Justice Surendra Kumar Sinha, Justice Nazmun Ara Sultana, Justice Syed Mahmud Hossain and Justice Hasan Foyez Siddique – concurring, leaving only Presidential mercy as a last resort. On November 21, 2015, Mojaheed and Salauddin submitted their separate mercy petitions to the President, and these were rejected on the same day.

Mojaheed had been arrested on June 29, 2010, and was indicted on June 21, 2012; while Salauddin was arrested on December 16, 2010, and indicted on April 4, 2012.

Salauddin and Mojaheed are the two highest-profile war crimes convicts to walk to the gallows. Salauddin is also the first BNP leader to be executed, and was Parliamentary Affairs Adviser to the then Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, with the rank of a Cabinet Minister. He had also served as Minister of Health during General Hussein Muhammad Ershad’s regime.

Mojaheed had served as Minister of Social Welfare in the then BNP-led coalition Government between 2001 and 2006. He is the third JeI leader to have been hanged for war crimes, after JeI Assistant Secretary Abdul Quader Mollah (65), known as ‘Mirpurer Koshai (Butcher of Mirpur), who was hanged at Dhaka Central Jail on December 12, 2013; and JeI Senior Assistant Secretary General Muhammad Kamaruzzaman (63), the third most senior figure in the JeI, who was hanged at Dhaka Central Jail on April 11, 2015.

Expectedly, on November 22, 2015, the JeI called for a countrywide dawn-to-dusk hartal (general strike) for November 23, 2015. Earlier, protesting the SC verdict of November 18, 2015, JeI had called a countrywide hartal on November 19, 2015. Unlike previous hartals called by JeI protesting against war crimes’ verdicts against party leaders, which had resulted in massive street violence, these two hartals were largely ignored across the country and no major acts of violence were reported.

The War Crimes (WC) Trials, which began on March 25, 2010, have thus far indicted 44 leaders, including 27 from JeI, six from the Muslim League (ML), five from Nezam-e-Islami (NeI), four from BNP and two from the Jatiya Party (JP). Verdicts have been delivered against 24 accused, including 17 death penalties and seven life sentences. So far, four of the 17 people who were awarded death sentence have been hanged. Each earlier judgment had resulted in violence unleashed by fundamentalists, led by the Opposition combine of BNP, JeI and its student wing Islami Chattra Shibir (ICS). According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the country recorded at least 51 fatalities, including 23 civilians, one Security Force (SF) trooper and 27 JeI-ICS cadres (between December 12, 2013 and December 19, 2013) as violent protests were witnessed across Bangladesh after the execution of JeI Assistant Secretary Abdul Quader Mollah on December 12, 2013. Further, the violence that followed the execution of JeI Senior Assistant Secretary General Muhammad Kamaruzzaman (63) on April 11, 2015, led to death of two JeI-ICS cadres (violent protests continued till April 14, 2015). However, no violent protests have taken place, thus far, after the execution of JeI Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed (67) and BNP Standing Committee member Salauddin Quader Chowdhury (66) on November 22, 2015.

Meanwhile, on November 22, 2015, various political parties and organizations hailed the latest executions. The Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB) demanded a ban on the politics of JeI and ICS to root out extremism from the country forever. Demanding immediate execution of all other war crimes convicts, Bangladesh Chhatra Federation (BCF), the student front of Ganasanghati Andolon, another left leaning political party, expressed satisfaction over the verdict and declared that it was a reflection of people’s expectations. Sammilita Sangskritik Jote, a cultural organization, also expressed satisfaction over the executions. Gonojagoron Mancha (People's Resurgence Platform), a youth platform seeking death sentences for all war criminals, took out a procession at Shahbagh in the capital, Dhaka. Further, calling for confiscation of all properties of the convicted war criminals and distribution of the wealth among the families of insolvent freedom fighters and rape victims of the 1971 Liberation War, Shahriar Kabir, Acting President of Ekatturer Ghatak Dalal Nirmul Committee, an anti-war crimes platform, asserted, on November 26, “The properties of Jamaat-e-Islami including its business firms, factories, NGOs, and educational and social institutions, should come under the Government's control. These institutions have to give compensation as well.”

Surprisingly, the BNP did not announce any programme of protests in the wake of the execution of its leader, Salauddin. At a high-level party meeting on November 25, 2015, BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia did not allow her party colleagues to discuss Salauddin's execution. After the meeting, Jamiruddin Sircar, a member of the party’s Standing Committee disclosed, “The issue of Salauddin's execution was raised at the meeting. Madam [Khaleda Zia] offered her condolence at his death. There was no more discussion on it as it was not on the agenda. We now want to make it clear that we are not in favour of war criminals. By not discussing Salauddin, she has saved her party from the accusation of patronizing war criminals.”

Earlier, on November 19, 2015, when a correspondent of Prothom Alo (First Light), a major daily newspaper published from Dhaka city in the Bengali language, contacted seven BNP leaders, including three members of its Standing Committee, one Standing Committee member, preferring anonymity, observed, “Salauddin Quader’s execution will have no impact on BNP. The party is not also discussing this much (sic).”

Indeed, BNP is now trying to extricate itself from its own past. For decades, the party has been facing accusation of patronizing war criminals. Its electoral ties with the anti-liberation JeI have also drawn flak, and the leadership has been facing pressure from both friends and foes at home and abroad to cut ties with JeI. In the past, BNP had joined often violent protestsat the war crimes verdicts and past executions.

Criticizing former Presidents Ziaur Rahman and H. M. Ershad; and BNP Chairperson Khaleda, for rehabilitating those involved in war crimes in 1971, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed observed, on November 23, 2015, “Ziaur Rahman did not try the war criminals. We tried and executed the war criminals. I think through the trial and execution of the war criminals the victims’ family members will at least get some consolation. If we cannot end the trial of war criminals, the nation will never be freed from curse (sic).”

For years now, entities sympathetic to the JeI-BNP combine, backed by several Western nations, have been attempting to undermine the legitimacy of the war crime trials. With the BNP pulling away from the convicted war criminals, it appears that the legitimacy issue has been more than settled, and apologists will find it increasingly difficult to sustain their campaigns against a process that has been abundantly transparent.

INDIA
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Chhattisgarh: Crumbling Bastions
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

A Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre was killed by a joint squad of Security Forces (SFs), comprising of the 204th Battalion of the Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA), District Reserve Group (DRG) and District Force, at Kurcholi village forest under the Basaguda Police Station limits in Bijapur District on November 25, 2015.  

Again, on November 24, the DRG had killed a CPI-Maoist ‘commander’ of military "Platoon Number 13", identified as Padia, in an encounter near a weekly market at Faraspal in Dantewada District. His body was recovered along with a 303 rifle, nine rounds, a .315 bore revolver and six live rounds, while other Maoists fled into the forest. In this encounter, SFs had disguised themselves as local villagers and waited for the Maoists.

On November 22, four woman cadres of the CPI-Maoist were killed in an encounter with SFs in Sukma District. The encounter took place at Nagalguda Hills under Gadiras Police Station limits on the Sukma–Dantewada border. SFs also neutralized a camp of the Maoists’ Malangir ‘area committee’. Bastar Police recovered four bodies of uniformed Maoists, along with a .303 service rifle and two 12-bore rifles. Police also claimed that Ayatu, the ‘divisional committee’ member of the Maoists’ ‘Darbha division’, was shot from close range and sustained multiple bullet injuries during the encounter. However, he managed to flee, leaving behind a truck load of camp items at the spot.

In a separate incident on November 19, two CPI-Maoist cadres, including a woman ‘commander’, were killed in an encounter with a joint team of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and the District Police near the Kolayiguda Forest in Sukma District. The two dead bodies were recovered from the encounter spot. The woman Maoist carried a reward of INR 500,000 on her head. In this incident the SFs led the Maoists into a trap, disguising themselves as tribals.    

Over the past 38 days, between October 23 and November 29, the Maoists also set ablaze 92 vehicles in the Bastar region. SFs recovered three Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in two separate incidents in Sukma District on November 23.  Meanwhile, two security personnel, one of them belonging to the CoBRA Force, were injured in a pressure bomb blast triggered by the Maoists in Bijapur District on November 24.

Between November 3, 2015, and November 25, 2015, 16 Maoists have been killed in encounters in seven separate incidents in Chhattisgarh, while one civilian was killed by the Maoists in Narayanpur District. Significantly, there have been no SF casualties, so far, in November 2015.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 112 people including 29 civilians, 40 SF personnel and 43 Maoists have been killed in LWE-related incidents in Chhattisgarh in 2015, as of November 29. Though a little over a month still remains in the year, Maoist fatalities have crossed last year’s figure, while SF fatalities have fallen to 40 as against 55 in 2014. Further, Maoist fatalities in Chhattisgarh are higher than any of the other States. At second rank, Jharkhand has had 35 LW extremists killed, including 27 from the CPI-Maoist, while the others are drawn from splinters such as People’s Liberation Front of India and Tritiya Prastuti Committee. On the SF fatalities index, Jharkhand is a distant second, with five fatalities. Chhattisgarh alone accounts for 40 of the total of 56 SF fatalities in LWE related incidents across the country.  

Significantly, all major incidents that have occurred in Chhattisgarh this year have occurred in the Bastar Division – including the seven southern districts of the State – Bijapur, Sukma, Dantewada, Bastar, Kondagaon, Narayanpur and Kanker – of Chhattisgarh. Despite mounting SF successes in this region, Bastar continues to be the ‘mainstay’ of the Maoist movement, and it is here that the battle against the Maoists would be won or lost. The largest proportion of current violence is reported from just three Districts in Bastar – Sukma, Bijapur and Dantewada – which constitute the nucleus of the Maoist movement. Of these, Sukma shares its border with Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, while Bijapur shares its border with Maharashtra and Telangana. Dantewada abuts Narayanpur, Bijapur, Sukma and Bastar. Interestingly, in 2015 all the eight major incidents (each involving three or more than three fatalities) in Chhattisgarh, have been reported from these three Districts. Across India, a total of 14 major LWE-linked incidents have been reported in 2015, as of November 29.

Total fatalities in LWE-related violence in Sukma, Bijapur and Dantewada Districts: 2012-2015

Year

Sukma
Bijapur
Dantewada
Chhattisgarh Total
% of Fatalities in Three Districts

2012

16
47
13
108
70.37

2013

56
36
5
128
75.78

2014

41
37
10
113
77.87

2015

36
36
15
112
79.67

Total

149
156
43
461
75.48
Source: SATP, * Data till November 29, 2015

The data indicates that, since 2012, there has been a gradual increase and concentration of fatalities in these three Districts, which have collectively contributed to 75.48 percent of the total fatalities in the State between 2012 and 2015.

Further, arrest (191) and surrender (130) data confirms that it is becoming progressively more difficult for the Maoists to operate freely even in this erstwhile stronghold, as SFs gradually penetrate into their spheres of dominance. The Maoists have also been hit hard by internal strife and mistrust as evident from several incidents of fratricide.

Tactically, SFs appear to be moving gradually towards specific intelligence based surgical strikes, rather than large scale mobilisation of forces for area domination. Interestingly, in both the Faraspal (November 24) and Kolayiguda (November 19) incidents, small action teams of SFs disguised as villagers successfully ambushed Maoist squads and recovered the bodies too. Better flows of intelligence from Maoist stronghold areas have enabled the tactical shift.

In a decisive step to encourage more Maoists to surrender, the Chhattisgarh Government has made significant additions to the “surrender and rehabilitation policy” for Maoists in the State. The additions range from the possibility of all previous cases being removed from the record to housing for surrendered Maoists, and compensation for ammunition apart from the weapons surrendered. “Anybody who now surrenders with a mortar will be given 2.5 lakh rupees, Rs 5,000 for a wireless set, Rs 3,000 for an IED, and Rs 5 per bullet or ammunition,” a senior official disclosed. It has also been decided that, upon surrender “the individual will be watched for six months, and if his behaviour is deemed to be good”, he will be liable for a government job. A Cabinet Subcommittee “may also take back criminal cases against him.”

The Maoists’ cumulative strategic errors since 2004, and progressive consolidation by SFs, have tremendously eroded Maoist capacities and capabilities across the country, and including their ‘heartland’ areas. It is in Chhattisgarh that they retain their last surviving bastions, and these are also crumbling rapidly.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November 23-29, 2015

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

1
0
3
4

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
0
1

Jammu and Kashmir

1
1
6
8

Meghalaya

2
0
3
5

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
0
4
4

Maharashtra

1
0
0
1

Odisha

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

6
1
13
20

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

0
0
5
5

FATA

2
3
25
30

KP

0
3
0
3

Punjab

0
0
4
4

Sindh

1
0
7
8

PAKISTAN (Total)

3
6
41
50
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

The path of terrorism and suicide bombing is not the right one for a true Muslim', says Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed a on November 26 said that the path of terrorism and suicide bombing is not the right one for a true Muslim. She said, "Terrorism and suicide [bombing] is not the path of a real Muslim... killing people inside a mosque is not the way of a genuine Muslim. Those who commit such crimes are of perverted mentality. If it happens, there'll be attacks on the Muslims and their lives would get tormented. So, all will have to stay alert about such offences." The Daily Star, November 27, 2015.

Nation had started getting rid of stigma of impunity through completion of trial and execution of war criminals, says Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on November 23 said that the nation had started getting rid of the stigma of impunity through the completion of trial and execution of war criminals. She said, "Ziaur Rahman did not try the war criminals. We tried and executed the war criminals. I think through the trial and execution of the war criminals the victims' family members will at least get some consolation. If we cannot end the trial of war criminals, the nation will never be freed from curse." Dhaka Tribune, November 25, 2015.


INDIA

Islamic State may carry out 'lone wolf' terror attacks in India, warns Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju: Islamic State (IS) may carry out terror strikes anywhere in the country using a single terrorist also known as 'lone wolf' to create a mayhem, Union minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju stated on November 26. "Challenges are there. We have to accept that it is a reality. The threat is there," Kiren Rijiju said. Times of India, November 27, 2015.

Hafiz Saeed touring terror camps on IB to provoke militants, says IG BSF Jammu Frontiers: Inspector General (IG), Border Security Force (BSF), Jammu Frontiers, Rakesh Sharma on November 26 said that Jamaat-ud Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz Saeed is touring terrorist camps along the border and "repeatedly provoking" militants to carry out attacks in India. Sharma said Pakistan's Security Forces (SFs) are allowing Saeed to "openly operate" in the border areas to indoctrinate terrorist groups allegedly in connivance with some of the Pakistan's agencies. Daily Excelsior, November 28, 2015.

"Substantial increase" in cross border firing along the Western frontier largely aimed at pushing the terrorists inside the country, says BSF chief D K Pathak: The Director General of Border Security Force (BSF) said on November 27 that there has been a "substantial increase" in cross border firing along the Western frontier which was largely aimed at pushing the terrorists inside the country. He stated that there have been "desperate" and "daring" bids from Pakistan side by terrorists to infiltrate and such attempts have seen a considerable jump this year. Daily Excelsior, November 28, 2015.

Northeast indigenous groups call for strike demanding separate statehood: Various indigenous groups' of Northeast who have been demanding separate statehood called on a general strike on December 16. The strike will be observed at various places in the region where the statehood demand is at its peak. Narendra Chandra Debbarma, President of the Indigenous People's Front of Twipra (IPFT), said that the National Federation for New States has given the bandh call as the Centre has failed to respond to their demand. The Sentinel, November 27, 2015.


PAKISTAN

Unidentified elements in Pakistan and Afghanistan major sources of terrorist financing, says US report: Unidentified elements in Pakistan and Afghanistan are major sources of terrorist financing, says a report by the United States (US) Treasury Department on November 23. The report - "Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment, 2015, - notes that the Haqqani Network generates funds by a wide range of sources including businesses and proceeds derived from criminal activities such as smuggling, extortion, and kidnapping for ransom in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Dawn, November 24, 2015.

Won't let Pakistan become a 'liberal' state, says JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman: Jama'at Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman while addressing a Conference in Larkana District of Sindh on November 29 vowed not to let Pakistan become a 'liberal' state. He said that Islam is the true identity for Pakistanis all across the globe. The News, November 30, 2015.

Karachi operation will be further intensified, says Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan: The Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on November 28 said that the law and order situation in Karachi had improved considerably since the beginning of the ongoing operation, which would be further intensified. Nisar said the crackdown was launched with the consent of all political parties, including the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP). Tribune, November 30, 2015.

Islamic State doesn't exist in Pakistan, claims Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah: Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah on November 23 claimed that the Islamic State does not exist in Pakistan. He stated that some proscribed organisations are using its name, but the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) is chasing militants. Dawn, November 24, 2015.


SRI LANKA

Jaffna 'remembers' slain LTTE cadres on 'Great Heroes' Day': 'Great Heroes Day (Maaveerar Naal)', which commemorates the slain Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres, passed without incident in the Tamil-speaking parts of Sri Lanka's Northern and Eastern Provinces on November 27. Even the funeral of 18-year-old Rajeswaran Senthooran who apparently committed suicide demanding an independent Eelam and the rehabilitation and release of detained LTTE suspects was peaceful. It was not a huge public affair as such funerals have been a few years ago. New Indian Express, November 28, 2015.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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