SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 19, November 9, 2015

INDIA	NEPAL

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Exacerbating Instability
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 2, 2015, an Indian national was killed and 40 others, including 32 United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) cadres and eight Policemen, were injured when Nepal Police opened fire to forcefully evacuate UDMF cadres who were agitating at the Miteri Bridge in the Birgunj town of Parsa District in Nepal. The incident occurred in the area along the Birgunj-Raxaul (a town in East Champaran District of the Indian state of Bihar) border. Witnesses claim the deceased, Ashish Kumar Ram aka Sonu Ram (24), was killed very close to the border on the Nepal side while he was going to Birgunj town on a personal visit.  

On November 3, 2015, three UDMF cadres were injured as they clashed with the Police on the premises of Narayani Sub-Regional Hospital in Birgunj town of Parsa District.

Again, on November 4, 2015, 12 UDMF cadres were injured in Birgunj as they clashed with Police at different location in the town.

The clashes between Nepal Police and people agitating to build pressure on the Nepalese Government to meet their demands for amending the new Constitution have been going on since September 20, 2015. According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management, at least 22 such incidents have been recorded from across the country, though they are mainly confined to Terai region. The Terai region is an area located along Nepal’s Southern border with India, and covers 23 per cent of Nepal’s total land area of 147,181 square kilometers. Approximately 30 to 40 per cent of the population falls within this region. Out of the country’s 75 Districts, 20 are located in the Terai, including, from east to west, Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Saptari, Siraha, Dhanusha, Mahottari, Sarlahi, Rautahat, Bara, Parsa, Chitwan, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilvastu, Dang, Banke, Bardiya, Kalaiya and Kanchanpur. At least two civilians have been killed in these incidents and another 148, including 140 civilians and eight Security Force (SF) personnel, have been injured (data till November 8, 2015).

This cycle of political violence began on July 1, 2015, when UDMF cadres burnt copies of the preliminary draft of the Constitution in Kathmandu, the Capital city, because it failed to incorporate their demands. At least 46 people including 27 civilians and 19 SF personnel have been killed and another 340 persons, including 273 civilians and 67 SF personnel, have since been injured in violent protests across the region.

17 months after the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election, the preliminary draft of the new Constitution was tabled in the CA on June 30, 2015, paving the way for its promulgation. On August 9, 2015, Nepal’s four major parties – Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) and Madhesi People's Rights Forum-Democratic (MPRF-D) – after the meeting of Constitutional Political Dialogue and Consensus Committee (CPDCC) of the CA reached a landmark deal to divide the country into six provinces. On September 16, 2015, the CA endorsed “Nepal’s Constitution” by an overwhelming 88.5 per cent of the 601-member CA, and by over 95 per cent of the Members present and voting. On September 20, in a historical step, Nepal adopted its first democratic Constitution.

While the adoption of the new Constitution was welcomed by most national and international groups and leaders, a large segment of the population, particularly the Madhesis and Tharus, residing in the Terai region contested the new Constitution on the grounds that:

• The six province model would perpetuate existing fault-lines that marginalise the Madhesis and other minority communities.

• Ethnic communities were aggrieved that, under the new Constitution, a smaller percentage of lawmakers will now be elected by proportional representation – 45 per cent, as compared to 58 per cent under the Interim Constitution.

• Some ethnic communities are also unhappy at the proposed boundaries of the new provinces, although these are subject to future amendment. In western Terai, the indigenous Tharus are chafing at the prospect of being split in two and forced to share their provinces with the Hill Districts that have historically dominated the country’s politics.

• Another controversy relates to the provision in the new Constitution that, if a Nepali woman marries a foreigner their children cannot assume Nepali citizenship unless the man first does so; however, if the father is Nepali, his children would be Nepali regardless of the wife's nationality. The Madhesi communities, ethnically and socially close to Indians just across the border, say the new citizenship measures will disproportionately affect them because there are many cross-border marriages.

Further, on October 27, 2015, the Federal Madhesi Front (FMF), comprising of the Lok Dal, Bahujan Samaj Party Nepal, Nepal Samajbadi Party, Nepal Sadbhawana Party and Loktantrik Party Nepal, presented a 102 point Constitutional amendment proposal to the Government. Among other issues, the Front had sought amendment in the Constitution to include Hindi and English as administrative languages, use 'Madhes' in the national anthem, elect the Prime Minister on a rotation basis and review the federal provinces. The Front also demanded the declaration of those who died during the Terai agitation as martyrs and the provision of financial compensation to their families, as well as provision of medical treatment to those who sustained injuries during demonstrations, and the release of cadres arrested in the course of protests.

India has been prominent among the few countries that have been demanding that the Nepal Government revaluate its decision and attempt to address the grievances of the Terai population. Urging Nepal’s leadership to amend sections of the country’s new Constitution, India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, during a meeting with Nepal’s Deputy Prime Minister Kamal Thapa in New Delhi, on October 18, 2015, conveyed a message stressing the need for “broad-based ownership” of the Constitution. Indeed, even as Madhesi protests and violence mounted in August 2015, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ignoring the tremendous efforts that had been exerted over long years to secure some measure of consensus in an extraordinarily fractious polity, had proclaimed, "Five to ten people cannot sit in a room and write the Constitution. All parties and forces should sit together. There must be greater dialogue."

India’s gratuitous interference in the Nepalese Constitution writing process, on many assessments driven by the imperatives of the electoral calculus in the Indian State of Bihar, has alienated the establishment in Kathmandu, despite the enormous goodwill generated over the past years, and particularly with the extraordinary aid India provided during the national crisis generated by the devastating earthquake of April 2015. Accusing India of supporting the blockade by Madhesi parties, Nepal's Deputy Prime Minister Bamdev Gautam declared, on September 30, 2015,

Seventy per cent of Nepal's trade is with India and if India imposes a blockade like this, people whose products are not exported will rise in protest against the (Indian) Government. It happened earlier also and then Government had to lift the blockade. Why they did not do it, they would know. But this is wrong conclusion of Indian Government. When India did not welcome (the Constitution), some Madhesi morcha parties – who were protesting earlier – announced that they will enforce a blockade on the border. And in this the Indian Government has provided full cooperation. This has been done to support the Madhesi parties.

Further, accusing India of deliberately imposing a trade embargo, Nepal's Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli stated, on November 6, 2015, "Foodstuff and protection come into priority under the humanitarian aspect even during a war. Neighbouring country has further troubled our country by blocking checkpoints while it is still paralysed by the April 25 devastating earthquake. This is objectionable."

Indeed, expressing concern over the economic impact of the continuing blockade and protests, the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) in a statement on October 5, 2015, noted that the economy had sustained losses in the amount of NR 100 billion due to the continuing disruption. Similarly, Bikash Bista, Director General of Nepal’s Central Bureau of Statistics, on October 30, 2015, estimated that the effect of the blockade was at least close to the economic impact of the April 2015 earthquake and, indeed, was more pervasive and lasting as, unlike the earthquake, the unrest and blockade have hit productive sectors. Damage from the quake was assessed at NR 700 billion under the Post Disaster Needs Assessment.

India has, of course, rejected the allegations of a state backed blockade, even as statements in support of Constitutional amendments for a more ‘inclusive’ order continue to emanate from high offices. India’s Ministry of External Affairs’ spokesperson Vikas Swarup on October 1, 2015, argued, “We can only take goods up to the border and beyond the border it is the responsibility of the Nepalese side to ensure that there is adequate safety and security for the trucks to enter that side.”

At the height of the blockade, on October 7, 2015, over 5,000 trucks were struck at Indian border points waiting to cross over into Nepal. Referring to the protests by the Madhesi people, Indian ambassador to Nepal, Ranjit Rae on November 1, 2015, observed,

The promulgation of the new Constitution in Nepal after an exercise of 60-70 years was a big achievement for Nepal and India does not prescribe any model. The only concern for India is that the Constitution should be acceptable to all sections and it should not bring instability and threaten peace. India's only concern is that there should be peace, stability and prosperity in Nepal after the promulgation of the Constitution as violence and instability in Nepal will also have similar impact on India as well.

The present protests in the Terai region have aggravated instability in the Himalayan nation.

As critical supplies from India were choked off by the blockade, Nepal turned to China and signed a memorandum of understanding with the China National United Oil Corporation on October 28, 2015. Since then, 71 tankers filled with petroleum products have been brought to Nepal from China till November 8, 2015. Before this, Nepal had relied exclusively on India for its energy needs. India usually sends Nepal about 100,000 tons of fuel every month, including diesel, kerosene and LPG. In 2014, Nepal imported about 1.37 billion liters (360 million gallons) of fuel from Indian Oil Corporation at a cost of USD1.05 billion.

There is little indication of matters settling in the near future. The agitating UDMF has, thus far, held five rounds of talks with the Government Talk’s Team. In the first four rounds, held on October 20, October 21, October 25 and October 29, made no headway, but a fifth round held on November 1, saw some positive signs, with the Government and the agitating UDMF agreeing to settle the issue of provincial delineation through broader consensus between the ruling coalition, agitating parties and the opposition, including the main opposition Nepali Congress (NC). However, as Police forcefully evacuated protesters at Birgunj town on November 2, the environment for talks was ruined.

By most assessments, the current protests and blockade are led by discredited forces within the Madhesi parties. However, 58 members of the CA from Terai-based parties refused to endorse the new Constitution on September 16, 2015. Subsequently, one of the agitating parties, the MPRF-D, with 14 CA members, joined the Government on October 11, 2015, after the party signed an eight-point deal with the dominant political formations in the ruling Coalition, the CPN-UML and the UCPN-M to address the demands of Terai-Madhes groups, and agreeing to amend the Constitution to ensure proportional representation in political appointments and public services, as well as to delimit electoral constituencies on the basis of population after ensuring a constituency for each District. Thereafter, on October 11, 2015, MPRF-D Chairman Bijay Kumar Gachhadar, who was once a strong voice against the Government, joined the Government. Gachhadar is Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Physical Infrastructure and Transport in the current Government led by CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli.

There are certainly shortcomings in the new Nepali Constitution – as in any other Constitution across the world – and that is what processes of amendment are for. The dominant Madhesi parties in the CA put their signatures on this document in full awareness of its remaining limitations, and with assurances from the majority parties that their concerns, particularly regarding provincial delimitation, would be addressed through the amendment process. The disruptive protests by marginalized Madhesi formations, at least in part encouraged by Indian state actors, have been unfortunate, and have caused enormous loss and distress within Nepal. India’s role in these disorders – real and perceived – can only undermine New Delhi’s already limited influence within the region.

PAKISTAN

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FATA: Haunted by the Past
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Malik Mohammad Younis, a prominent elder of the Salarzai tribe, was killed, while another three, including two of his sons, were injured when their vehicle hit an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in the Gulu Shah area of Salarzai tehsil (revenue unit) in Bajaur Agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on November 3, 2015. Malik Mohammad Younus was an active pro-government leader and was heading the Peace Committee in the Salarzai tehsil of the Agency.

On the same day, another pro-Government tribal elder, Malik Musanif Khan, was killed in an IED attack when he was on his way home from a nearby mosque in Mamond town in the same Agency.

Earlier, on October 4, 2015, a pro-Government tribal elder, Malik Sayed Ali Wazir, was killed and his son was wounded when a roadside bomb hit their vehicle in the Bakkakhel town of Bannu District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Wazir, who headed an anti-Taliban militia in the town, was on the terrorists’ hit-list.

Since the beginning of United States (US)-led operation in Afghanistan in 2001 and the consequent influx of Afghan Taliban into Pakistan’s tribal areas, primarily FATA, an unspecified number of tribal elders and pro-Government tribal militia members have become victims of a sustained campaign of annihilation that has virtually destroyed the structure of traditional tribal power in these regions. In the compound of the FATA Secretariat, there stands a lonely cenotaph with, “Elders/Maliks of Federally Administered Tribal Areas Martyred in Militancy” inscribed on it. It bears as many as 111 names. Although the font used for the writing has remained consistent, additional slabs of marble have been added to accommodate more names in the expanding list.

Delawar Khan Wazir, a senior journalist from South Waziristan Agency, who has maintained a record of his own since 2001, claims that 1,114 elders have so far been killed by the Taliban, al Qaeda and their affiliates in the seven agencies and six frontier regions of FATA. Partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), based on erratic reporting in the Pakistan media, confirms the killing of at least 154 tribal elders since 2005 in 103 incidents.

The attacks on the tribal elders and their families demonstrate the abject failure, irresponsibility and inconsistency of state polices that have worsened the vulnerabilities of this endangered leadership in FATA and KP. The attacks mainly target tribal elders who support Government operations against the militants and acts of vengeance by terrorists who had been forced to flee the areas due to successive military offensives.

Meanwhile, the targeted killing of influential tribal elders and Maliks has forced many to flee the area temporarily to avoid militant backlash. On September 5, 2015, one such tribal elder, who had shifted to Punjab, told the media, under conditions of anonymity, “I fail to understand what is going on. It seems the past has returned to haunt us again.”

Indeed, fear is rampant. Abdul Qadir Baloch, the Minister for States and Frontier Regions (SAFRON), replying to a question in the Senate (Upper House of Parliament), stated, on January 30, 2015, that the Federal Government had conferred some 8,000 lungies (traditional souvenirs) on tribal elders over the past five years in recognition of their services for maintaining peace in their respective tribal agencies. The Government had granted 750 lungies between 2009 and 2010; 3,200 in 2012, 375 in 2013 and 2,100 in 2014. These lungies had been distributed in 13 regions, including Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Kurram, Orakzai, North and South Waziristan agencies and Frontier Regions Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Tank, Lakki and Dera Ismail Khan. He added that some elders were now unwilling to accept lungies from the Government due to threats from terrorists, since the launch of the ongoing military operations in the tribal regions. The Minister added, “This is a wrong impression that many elders and Maliks in FATA are refusing to accept these ‘lungies’ because they are either supporting the Taliban or militants,” and claimed that these elders were not coming forward for fear of a Taliban backlash.

Despite Government apathy, the tribal elders along with their tribes had been supporting the Government and Army in the fight against terrorism. Whenever operations have been launched in the tribal areas, the tribal elders along with their tribal militias have come forward to provide manpower and logistics support. In the month of June 2014, when the Government decided to launch the Army offensive Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sharp Cut) in the North Waziristan Agency (NWA), the tribal elders of NWA unanimously announced their support. NWA is regarded as the cradle of Taliban extremism. Director General Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Major General Asim Bajwa on June 20, 2014, announced that the tribal elders had committed their support to the military operation in North Waziristan Agency and had given an assurance that the terrorists would not be allowed to return to their areas.  

By October 16, 2014, however, the tribal elders from NWA had threatened an agitation if the Government did not set a timeframe for the ongoing military offensive and did not accept their demands for rehabilitation. When Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched on June 15, 2014, tribal elders abandoned their homes and proceeded towards Bannu. Over the subsequent months, the Government failed to provide the displaced persons with basic amenities and they were forced to live under harsh conditions. According to the tribal elders, millions of rupees worth of aid has been pouring into Bannu for the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and yet, thousands of families were being deprived of compensation, as the money was being embezzled by civil administration officials.

Further, elders representing the IDPs from NWA set up a three-day protest camp on Sher Shah Suri Road outside Peshawar Press Club on October 26, 2015, to force the Government to expedite their rehabilitation process and provide all basic facilities to them. “Following the protest in Peshawar, we will move to Islamabad to set up a 10-day protest camp outside Shah Faisal Mosque to convey our grievances to the Federal Government as no one bothers to mitigate our miseries,” tribal elder Abdul Khalil said. Khalil disclosed that tribal elders had presented the Government with a 13-point charter of demands, which included reconstruction of their houses, markets, schools, hospitals and posting of staff so that the IDPs on their return would not face any inconvenience. “We have always served the country selflessly and rendered sacrifices for protecting its borders without demanding any compensation but even then the rulers are treating us like second rate citizens,” he added.

Earlier, on October 22, 2015, the All FATA Political Parties Alliance (AFPPA) had demanded the merger of FATA into KP and asked the Government to announce a package of PKR 300 billion to rehabilitate displaced tribal people and compensate tribal traders.

While many tribal elders and sections of the population are languishing in IDP camps, others among them are targeted for siding with the Government in the war against terrorism. While the state and the Army have actively sought the cooperation of these populations and leaderships during Operations, and have been the principal agents of their internal displacement and of the destruction of their properties and livelihoods, they have done little to protect, compensate or rehabilitate them. This is a festering sore that can only contribute to enduring resentment and instability in the region.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Extremism

Total (BANGLADESH)

INDIA

Manipur

Nagaland

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Maharashtra

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)