SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 1, July 6, 2015

AFGHANISTAN

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Darkening Shadows
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

The Islamic State (IS) has started making significant territorial gains within war-torn Afghanistan. IS, according to the US Department of State’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2014, has emerged as the most dreaded global terror outfit, and has captured large parts of Syria and Iraq. According to June 2015 reports, fighters loyal to IS have seized sizeable territories in Afghanistan as well. Reports citing witnesses, who have fled from Nangarhar Province due to fierce clashes between forces loyal to IS and those loyal to the Afghan Taliban, claim that IS has pushed the Taliban out from areas previously under Taliban control. Haji Abdul Jan, a tribal elder from Achin District (Nangarhar Province) stated,

Further corroboration came from Malek Islam, the District Chief of Achin, who noted that IS fighters were "almost everywhere in the District" but were targeting the Taliban only and “not us”.

Official sources have now confirmed that forces loyal to IS have seized some territory from the Taliban in Nangarhar Province. Provincial Council chief Ahmad Ali Hazrat and Member of Parliament from Nangarhar Haji Hazrat Ali stated that, out of 21 Districts in the Province, the IS had seized some territory in at least six: Kot, Achin, Deh Bala, Naziyan, Rodat and Chaparhar. Local Army spokesman, Noman Atefi claimed that IS had established a presence in "seven or eight" Districts. Significantly, reports indicate that the fighting between the IS and Taliban was going on in Khogyani and Pachir Agam Districts.

The Taliban has also conceded that it has lost ground in Nangarhar, but attempts to downplay the influence of IS, even as it held the position that IS was not a rival. Taliban ‘spokesman’ Zabihullah Mujahid thus argued, "They are thieves and thugs ... We will soon clear those areas and free the villagers."

Nevertheless, official confirmation about IS presence also came from the Governor of Kunduz Province, Mohammad Omar Safi. Safi noted, on February 2, 2015, that nearly 70 IS militants had started activities in Dasht-i-Archi and Chardara Districts of the Province and a strategy was urgently needed to deal with IS.

Reports of IS making inroads into Afghanistan had started emerging subsequent to the June 2014 release of IS’ ‘world domination map’, which included Afghanistan in the projected ‘Islamic region’ of ‘Khorasan’.

Further, referring to the increasing IS presence within Afghanistan, Nicholas Haysom, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, stated, on March 16, 2015,

Recent reports have indicated that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIL, now known as IS] has established a foothold in Afghanistan. It is UNAMA’s [United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan] assessment that the group’s presence is of concern but that ISIL’s significance is not so much a function of its intrinsic capacities in the area but of its potential to offer an alternative flagpole to which otherwise isolated insurgent splinter groups can rally.

In his address to the United States (US) Congress on March 25, 2015, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani warned, “From the west, Daesh [IS] is already sending advance guards to southern and western Afghanistan to test for vulnerabilities.”

Moreover, a June 24, 2015, report noted that, during a meeting with President Ashraf Ghani, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated, “…what is even more disturbing is that the so-called Islamic State is getting increasingly active in Afghanistan, consolidating its position there. I believe we are already seeing the Islamic State’s presence in 25 out of the 34 provinces.”

Meanwhile, on April 18, 2015, IS reportedly carried out its first terror attack inside Afghanistan. At least 33 people were killed and another 105 were injured in a suicide bomb blast outside a bank, where Government staff and military personnel were collecting their salaries, in the city of Jalalabad, the provincial capital of Nangarhar Province. IS ‘spokesperson’, Shahidullah Shahid, claiming responsibility online, identified the suicide bomber as Abu Muhammed Khurasani. An email from the outfit reportedly confirmed the claim and boasted of "sending 75 government servants to hell."

Confirming that the IS was responsible for the attack, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani declared, "Who claimed responsibility for the horrific attack? The Taliban did not claim responsibility for the attack, Daesh (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack."

The spread of IS is an ominous development for Afghanistan, which is going through one of the most turbulent phases of terrorism. According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), at least 8,275 persons, including 1,440 civilians, have already been killed in the Taliban-led insurgency across the country in 2015, with almost six months still to go in the year (all data till July 5, 2015). The total number of such fatalities was 10,574 through 2014, the highest number of fatalities in any year since 2007 (ICM data compiled from various sources is available since then).  

According to the latest data made available by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), at least 2,967 Afghan casualties were reported during the first four months of 2015. Mark Bowden the deputy head of the UNAMA and UN Secretary-General’s Deputy Special Representative in Afghanistan, disclosed on June 7, 2015, “As of 30 April, 1,989 Afghans were injured as a result of the conflict and 978 Afghan civilians killed, throughout the country.” Though no further official data is available, according to partial data compiled by the ICM, another 462 civilians have been killed since May 1, 2015 (data till July 5, 2015). 3,699 civilian fatalities were recorded in the country through 2014, the highest number of civilian fatalities in a year recorded by UNAMA since 2007. UNAMA began recording civilian fatalities in Afghanistan in 2007.

Fatalities among Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) have also increased considerably. Through 2014, a total of 770 deaths among Afghan Forces (413 ANA and 357 ANP personnel) were recorded, while the number of such fatalities already stands at 709 (517 ANA personnel and 192 ANP personnel) in the current year (till July 5).

The situation is bound to worsen further as Taliban has already launched its annual ‘Spring Offensive’. Indeed, in one of the most daring attacks ever, Taliban fighters stormed the Afghan Parliament compound on June 22, 2015. Though the attackers failed to enter the Parliament building, at least two people, a woman and a child, were killed during the attack, which ended with the killing of all the six attackers. None of the parliamentarians, who were meeting to consider the appointment of new Defence Minister Massoom Stanekzai, were harmed. Claiming the attack, Taliban ‘spokesman’ Zabihullah Mujahid declared, "We have launched an attack on Parliament as there was an important gathering to introduce the country's Defence Minister."

The Taliban also continues to control significant territory in the country. Despite efforts to project its ‘successes’, the Government concedes that the outfit has complete control over four districts across Afghanistan. Major General Mohammad Afzal Aman, chief of operations for the Ministry of Defence admitted on June 13, 2015, that that the Taliban controlled Baghran and Dishu in Helmand Province; Khak-e-Afghan in Zabul Province; and Nawa in Ghazni Province. General Aman asserted, “No other area except those four districts is under the enemy control now.”

With IS making inroads, the turf war between the two groups is likely to escalate. What is currently occurring, however, is simply a redistribution of existing rebel forces in Afghanistan under competing flags. While IS may bring a new character and level of brutality to its violence, it is unlikely to dramatically alter the structure and dynamics of insurgent violence in the country. Nevertheless, if IS allied formations tend to prevail over wider areas, the possibility of greater influence of the ‘global jihadi’ elements will significantly increase creating a rising potential for the entry of foreign fighters and the direct influence of IS leaders, commanders and strategic objectives. Such an eventuality would certainly bring new dangers to Afghanistan.

In view of the surge in terrorist activities and these other developments, the US has now has agreed to Afghanistan’s demand not to withdraw any US troops through 2015. US President Barack Obama had originally planned to cut the size of US Forces from their current strength of 9,800 to about 5,000 by the end of the 2015. However, he remains committed to withdrawing the bulk of American Forces by the end of 2016, leaving behind just a small force to guard the US Embassy.

Such a strategy would, however, simply repeat the cycle of disasters of the past, leaving Afghanistan isolated and in grave danger of consolidation by Islamist extremist forces. The threat, in such a situation, would not only be to Afghanistan, but to the wider region and, eventually, the world, once again creating a base and staging ground for international terrorists to mount attacks against their declared enemies everywhere. The West would not escape the consequences of such a development, even as it did not in the past. Significantly, in his meeting with Russian President Putin, President Ghani had noted, “The fact is, they [Islamic State] were not created for Afghanistan – they are using Afghanistan as a launching pad to spread their influence across the region.”

IS has already made deep inroads within Pakistan, and is emerging as a worry for security establishments in Bangladesh and India. Every country in the fragile and turbulent Asian region is now at risk of destabilization, in South Asia, both by continuous mischief by Pakistani state proxies and the global jihadists, and across the rest of the region by the rising influence of increasingly radicalized Islamist formations. Regrettably, no country or international coalition has yet evolved a coherent strategy to confront and neutralize the complex threat of Islamist extremism in its multifarious forms – both as instrument of state strategy and as the lunatic aspiration of millenarian terrorists.

INDIA

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Maoists: Chhattisgarh: Limited Gains, Repeated Errors
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Three cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), including two women, were killed in an exchange of fire between the Maoists and the Security Forces (SFs) near Jinipa under Tarlaguda Police Station limits in Bijapur District on June 12. Apart from the bodies, Police recovered five weapons from the spot. While the two women cadres are yet to be identified, the third Maoist was identified as 19-year-old Kodamagundla Vivek, a dropout from Osmania University who had played a major role during the students’ agitation for Telangana in 2012-14. He belonged to Suryapet in Telangana.

In a separate incident on the same day, another Maoist, identified as Rama (27), a Jan Militia member, was killed and another three were arrested after an encounter between the Sukma District Reserve Guard and Maoists near Tumma Vaagu village in Sukma District. The arrested Maoists were Apka Pandu (27), a member of Maoist battalion; Madvi Bheema (28), a member of Bhejji Maoist militia; and Madvi Somlu of Kistaram Maoist militia.

Just six days earlier, on June 6, at least two CPI-Maoist cadres, identified as Sukoti, resident of Rowghat, Kanker, and Jamli, hailing from South Bastar region, were killed in an encounter near Timdi village in Kondagaon District. A Maoist camp was also neutralised during the encounter and three 12-bore rifles, around 15 backpacks and other material were recovered from the spot.

On June 2, 2015, a woman Maoist ‘commander’ was killed in an encounter with SFs near Bechapal village, under the Mirtur Police Station limits of Bijapur District. SFs recovered her body along with two hand grenades and one rifle. She was later identified as Lingo Parvati, a member of the CPI- Maoist ‘platoon number 13’. Police also claimed that SFs recovered a “big arms, ammunition dump left by the Maoists” from the encounter spot.

In all these incidents, SFs killed seven Maoists and, for a change, recovered the bodies. Earlier, on May 17, three policemen and two Maoists had been killed in an encounter near Ponjed at Mirjur in the Gangalur Police Station area of Bijapur District during an anti-Maoist operation conducted by a joint team of the Special Task Force (STF) and the District Police Force. Significantly, SFs recovered the bodies of both the Maoists, including that of Hemla Masa alias Vijay, ‘commander’ of Company 2 of the CPI-Maoist West Bastar Division. Fifteen AK-47 rounds, nine Under Barrel Grenade Launcher (UBGL) shells, a 12 bore rifle and a wireless set were recovered. Masa is said to be the highest-ranked Maoist whose body has been recovered in Chhattisgarh.

The recent SF successes in Chhattisgarh have been attributed to "small surgical operations" based on specific intelligence inputs about the movement of cadres in the jungles ahead of the monsoon. An official on the condition of anonymity disclosed, further, "We will try to corner naxals in rainy season too with similar small surgical operations in their hideouts and camps." S.R.P. Kalluri, Inspector General (IG), Bastar Range, added that the present operations were being conducted while SFs were gearing up for major operations in the offing. He refused to divulge more on the nature of the upcoming offensive.

The SFs have also arrested at least 30 Maoists over the past two months, including some significant catches. On June 28, 2015, a Maoist couple, identified as Mallesh alias Dhansingh and his wife Sukay Vetti, were arrested from Korlapal village forests under Geedam Police Station limits in Dantewada District. Mallesh was a prominent Maoist leader of the region and was active as 'Commander' of Section 'A' of the CPI-Maoist Military Platoon Number 1 of Military Company No. 6. Mallesh's wife Sukay was an active member of the same group and assisted her husband in several incidents. Each was carrying a reward of INR 800,000. Other prominent Maoists arrested included: Rakesh, 'commander' of Antagarh dalam, carrying a reward of INR 500,000; Kamla Dhruv alias Santoshi (22), a senior woman cadre, with a reward of INR 200,000; Fuleshwari Pudo alias Mayawati (27), a cadre of the Pallemari Local Operation Squad (LOS), with a reward of INR 100,000; Baman Kunjan (25), 'militia commander' of Tikanpal village; Shashikala Vadde (21), a member of Kasansur (Gadchiroli District in Maharashtra) LOS under North Gadchiroli Division, active on the Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh border, was arrested from the Bande Police Station limits of Kanker District on May 29.

Further, at least 10 Maoists have surrendered in past two months. The most significant among them was CPI-Maoist commander Kiran alias Sannu Potam of the Malangir Area Committee, who surrendered with his SLR, two magazine and 47 live cartridges. He carried a reward of INR 500,000 on his head. The Maoists’ ‘Bangapal platoon no. 2’ commander, Mantu Gonde alias Motu, section commander Savita Sodhi, Military platoon commander Ramsingh, Kondagav, Military platoon commander Fuldev and Kanker Sangham member Rajeshwari, surrendered on May 18, 2015. Mantu Gonde and his wife Savita Sodhi carried a reward of INR 800,000 each, whereas Fuldev and Ramsingh carried a reward of INR 200,000 each. Bastar IG Kalluri claimed that a small magazine called 'Badru' that talks about surrender policies of State Government and encourages Maoists to join mainstream was circulated in villages, which inspired Potam to surrender. 'Badru' was published by the Police's counter propaganda cell in the Bastar Division.

According to partial data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Chhattisgarh has recorded a total of 62 fatalities in 2015 (till July 5), including 16 civilians, 29 SF personnel and 17 Maoists. Of these, in the past two months [May and June], the Maoists have lost 10 cadres where as SFs have lost five personnel.  

As the SFs try to recover somewhat, after the disastrous month of April, when 14 SF personnel were killed by Maoists within five days, there have been concerns from several quarters regarding the attempt to start “Salwa Judum Part-II” by Chhavindra Karma, son of the late Mahendra Karma, the controversial architect of “Salwa Judum” who was killed on May 25, 2015.

Several leaders associated with Salwa Judum came together on May 4, 2015, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Dantewada, and formed the Vikas Sangharsh Samiti (VSS, Development Struggle Committee) under the leadership of Chhavindra Karma, who claimed that it was to be “Salwa Judum Part-II” but without the bloodshed. “We will move through villages in Bastar and make people aware about the real face of the Maoists.” The first mega event was slated to take place in Faraspal village (Dantewada), the native place of Karma family, on Mahendra Karma’s second death anniversary. The mega event was, however, postponed due to Maoist threats, and the death anniversary was observed as a simple affair, instead.

Describing the new movement as a ‘supportive organization to the (Operation) Greenhunt’ the Maoists threatened to mete out the same punishment to the supporters of ‘Salwa Judum-II’ which was given to Salwa Judum activists. To communicate their seriousness on this issue, the Maoists hacked to death two relatives of Mahendra Karma – Sukku Oyami of Kesapur village and Chitranjan Barse from Gondapal village – near Karma’s ancestral village of Faraspal, on May 25, the eve of his second death anniversary. The rebels also shot at former Salwa Judum leader Podium Sukka and his wife in Sukma District in the same night.

The Raman Singh Government, however, appears inclined to support the Vikas Sangharsh Samiti. On May 12, Chief Minister Singh observed, “On the issue of garnering consent among people, making them ready and creating a certain atmosphere — there should be awareness. If we stand up against Naxals on the streets and bring villagers along, I have to ensure they are protected.” He, however, added that “How far we should bring villagers — to the forefront of our fight against Naxals – is a highly sensitive issue. Creating awareness among people and educating them is a major solution."

On May 25, 2015, Bastar IGP Kalluri also declared his support for VSS. Speaking at Karma’s second death anniversary in Faraspal, Kalluri lashed out at those who compared it with Salwa Judum. He claimed that “Maoists sympathisers” often say that the years of historical neglect had triggered the violence by Maoists. VSS, he claimed, was an effort to address this record of neglect: “We are not talking about violence, but trying to bring development to Bastar.”

Chhavindra Karma has also emphasised that “bullets are not the solution” and that VSS would avoid bloodshed ‘as far as possible’, focusing only on development. His brother Deepak Karma added, “the present Samiti must learn from earlier mistakes”.

But not many are convinced. Manish Kunjam, President of the All India Adivasi Mahasabha and a former Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) representing Communist Party of India (CPI), noted, “It’s all about mines. Some big industrial houses have got leases but are unable to begin work. Earlier Karmaji did it, now his son. We all know what happened during Salwa Judum. If it goes on, it will be a fansi ka fanda (hangman’s noose).” However, former Salwa Judum leader Sukhdev Tati insists that, though some vested interests entered the earlier campaign, “industry hand” cannot motivate people for another Judum, especially since the people who participated in Salwa Judum only got death, and the fortunate ones who survived live in constant fear, with limited means.  

Meanwhile, reviewing the security situation during a two day visit to Chhattisgarh, Union Minister of Home Affairs Rajnath Singh directed that the installation of mobile towers by Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) be expedited, particularly in Sukma District. He said that new Post Offices would be opened in the three worst affected Districts of south Bastar – Sukma, Bijapur and Dantewada. He also laid stress on the expeditious formulation of the Road Requirement Plan, RRP-II, in consultation with the Union Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and called for the opening of schools and hostels, new bank branches and expansion of radio and TV coverage in the Naxal affected areas. The State Government proposed that the Centre should undertake an INR 30 billion "Bastar Plan" for its integrated development on both economic and security fronts.

However, calls for development of Bastar are not new, and the poor state of infrastructure and governance has been repeatedly highlighted in SAIR. Media reports indicate that even in the Police Department, Bastar Division has 1,031 vacancies across ranks [9,245 posts sanctioned, 8,214 have been filled]. In an attempt to fill up the vacancies, the State Government invited applications from retired Army personnel in 2013; only two ex-servicemen joined in response.      

Interestingly, unable to fill up vacancies for doctors, teachers and para-medical staff in the insurgency-hit Bastar region and Sarguja District [in the north] despite several attempts, the State Government has decided to “outsource the posts in both Sarguja and Bastar region." The State Cabinet, on May 19, 2015, approved the proposal moved in this connection, while details of executing the proposal are to be worked out ‘soon’. It would be interesting to see how the outsourcing agencies would provide services that the state has failed to, especially where the private sector has already failed to deliver in Maoist afflicted regions. The only possibility is that some questionable operatives may function under Maoist patronage, while the rebels extract a price for the ‘protection’ they would offer. 

Meanwhile, in a major decision, the Chhattisgarh Government decided, on June 30, 2015, to hike allowances and other benefits for Police jawans (troopers), including constables, assistant constables and secret troops posted in the Naxalite-dominated areas of Bastar Division, Gariyaband and Rajnandgaon. Nearly 22,000 Police jawans are expected to benefit from the move, which would result in an almost 58 per cent hike in emoluments of assistant constables, who, after the revision, would get INR 14,144 per month instead of Rs 8,990 earlier. This amount will be applicable till 2018-19 and further decisions would be taken in this regard in a review meeting before March 31, 2019. The Cabinet also approved 150 additional posts for ‘Secret Troops’. As of now there are 458 Secret Troop personnel active in the State. Further, UHM Rajnath Singh has agreed “in principle” to a proposal by Chhattisgarh Government to raise a tribal battalion to take on the Maoists in the Bastar region.

Concerns, however, remain. During the Union Home Minister’s visit, Chief Minister Singh is learnt to have complained that there was "no cooperation" from the Telangana Government in the fight against Maoists in the Bastar region, while Odisha's cooperation was ‘moderate’. He praised the "active participation" of Maharashtra.

Temporary advantages and set backs offer no enduring solution to the Maoist challenge, and the importance of a sound anti-Maoist policy can hardly be understated. In the absence of a coherent view among the Centre and the affected States, especially Chhattisgarh, the task confronting SFs can only be difficult.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Meghalaya

Nagaland

Left-Wing Extremism

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Punjab

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)