Northeast:
The Troubles Endure
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Insurgencies
in India's Northeast have seen repeated cycles of
reverses and resurgence. Most States in the region
remain poorly governed and, on a wide range of parameters…
The recent conflagrations in Assam have demonstrated
clearly that, however significant the gains of the
state in a particular theatre, there is no space
for the pattern of administrative incompetence,
political corruption and neglect that has characterized
governance in the Northeast - and, increasingly,
much of India as well. The enemy waits, close at
hand.
SAIR Volume 11, No. 34, February 25, 2013.
|
There was
a sharp spike in civilian fatalities in the Northeast
Region in 2014, after four consecutive years of registering
less than 100 fatalities annually. The IK Songbijit faction
of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS)
(Assam) which accounted for 184 fatalities [137 civilians,
one Security Force (SF) and 43 of its own cadres] was
the prime driver of the skewed trend. NDFB-IKS, led by
Myanmar based Ingti Kathar Songbijit, is fighting for
a ‘sovereign Bodoland’ for the Bodo tribesman of Assam.
There was
also a surge in Meghalaya where splits in existing Garo
militant groups fed a cycle of rising violence. Fratricidal
killings among Naga militant groups, both within and outside
Nagaland, however, declined. The trend for the other States
in the region remained stable.
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal
(SATP), 2014 registered a 84.52 per cent increase in overall
fatality in the Northeast, as compared to 2013, primarily
due to increased fatalities in Assam, where a 202 per
cent rise in total fatalities (305) was recorded, in comparison
to 2013 (101 fatalities). Assam accounted for 65.59 per
cent of overall fatalities (465) across the Northeast
in 2014; followed by Meghalaya (76 fatalities); Manipur
(54); Nagaland (15); Arunachal Pradesh (nine); Tripura
(four); and Mizoram (two). In 2013, Assam had registered
101 fatalities, followed by Meghalaya (60); Manipur (55);
Nagaland (32); Arunachal Pradesh (four). No fatalities
were recorded in Tripura and Mizoram in 2013.
Fatalities
in Militants Violence in India's Northeast 2005-2015*
Years
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Militants
|
Total
|
2005
|
334
|
69
|
314
|
717
|
2006
|
232
|
92
|
313
|
637
|
2007
|
457
|
68
|
511
|
1036
|
2008
|
404
|
40
|
607
|
1051
|
2009
|
270
|
40
|
542
|
852
|
2010
|
77
|
22
|
223
|
322
|
2011
|
79
|
35
|
132
|
246
|
2012
|
90
|
18
|
208
|
316
|
2013
|
95
|
21
|
136
|
252
|
2014
|
245
|
23
|
197
|
465
|
2015
|
18
|
6
|
29
|
53
|
Total
|
2301
|
434
|
3212
|
5497
|
Source:
SATP, *Data till March 22, 2015
|
In Assam
the trend in overall fatalities has remained erratic
over recent years. According to SATP, a sustained decline
was recorded between 2010 and 2012, with a marginal increase
in 2013, and then a dramatic surge in 2014, when 305 fatalities
were recorded, including 184 civilians, five Security
Force (SF) personnel and 116 militants. This was the highest
number of civilian fatalities in the State since 2008,
when civilian fatalities stood at 224. In the worst incident
of civilian killings, at least 69
Adivasis [central Indian tribesman
settled in Assam] were killed by NDFB-IKS militants in
Sonitpur, Kokrajhar and Chirang Districts on December
23, 2014. NDFB-IKS’s strategy of similar “soft target”
killings also included the slaughter of 46
Muslim settlers in Baksa and Kokrajhar
Districts in May 2014.
Meanwhile,
in mid-February 2015, the Indian Army claimed that the
entire top leadership of Karbi People’s Liberation Tigers
(KPLT)
had been arrested. An Army release stated, “The operation
has decimated the organisation and almost completely wiped
out the dreaded KPLT from West Karbi Anglong District
of Assam facilitating return of peace in the poorly developed
region." Earlier, SFs had arrested ‘chairman’, ‘commander-in-chief’,
‘deputy chief’, ’finance secretary’, ‘auditor’ and ‘area
commanders’ of KPLT in different operations. However,
Superintendent Of Police (SP- Karbi Anglong), Mugdha Jyoti
Mahanta, on February 1, 2015, observed, “But the KPLT
now has been split into five groups - KPLT (Buche group),
KPLT (Pratap), KPLT (Donri), KPLT (Symbon) and KPLT (Sojong).
Some of these groups have six-seven members."
Another
six militant groups – Independent faction of United Liberation
Front of Asom (ULFA-I),
Kamatapur Liberation organisation (KLO),
Harkat-ul Mujahideen (HuM-Assam unit), Muslim United Liberation
Tigers of Assam (MULTA),
Communist Party of India (CPI-Maoist)
and Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB)
– presently remain active in Assam.
13 other
militant groups are currently under Suspension of Operation
(SoO) agreements with the Government. The Assam Government
has spent over INR 9 million on the maintenance of 3,930
cadres of these groups in 24 designated camps. However,
no new SoO agreement was signed in 2014.
14 fatalities
[three civilian, one SF personal and 10 militants] have
already been recorded in 2015 till March 22.
Meghalaya
is the second-worst
insurgency affected State in the Northeast,
with a total of 76 fatalities in 2014 according to SATP
data, as compared to 60 in 2013, an increase of 26.67
per cent. In spite of the rise in fatalities, however,
indices suggest a consolidation of peace in the State.
Significantly, civilian fatalities, which had been rising
continuously since 2009, registered a decline of 17.86
per cent in 2014, as compared to the previous year, dropping
from 28 to 23. Incidents of civilian killing in both years
remained at 20. Civilian killings in 2014 were reported
from five Garo Hills Districts, which accounted for all
the insurgency-linked fatalities in the year, leaving
the remaining six Districts of the State outside the ambit
of lethal violence. In 2013, fatalities were reported
from the West Khasi Hills and South West Khasi Hills Districts,
as well, outside the Garo Hills Districts.
Fatalities
among SF personnel, which had increased sharply in 2013,
over 2012, recorded a decline in 2014. Two SF personnel
were killed in 2012; nine in 2013, as against six in 2014.
On the other hand, the State recorded the highest single-year
fatalities among militants since 1992, with 47 killed
in 2014. SF action led to 27 militant fatalities [in 22
encounters], while another 13 rebel cadres were killed
in internecine clashes; seven militants were lynched by
angry villagers in 2014. In 2013, militant fatalities
stood at 23 – including 15 killed by SFs; six lynched
by villagers; one killed in a factional clash; and another
one killed by his own group, according to SATP data.
Garo militant
groups, A’chik National Volunteer Council (ANVC)
and Breakaway faction of ANVC (ANVC-B), were disbanded
at a function at the Dikki-Bandi Stadium at Dakopgre in
Tura town of West Garo Hills District on December 15,
2014. 748 cadres from both factions - 447 [ANVC] and 301
[of ANVC-B] were present as the ‘chairmen’ of the two
militant formations - Dilash Marak [ANVC] and Bernard
N. Marak [ANVC-B] - signed the Affirmation Agreement at
the disbanding ceremony.
Significantly,
a Counter Insurgency (CI) operation, Hill
Storm was launched on July 11, 2014,
to neutralize the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA)
and the Assam based ULFA-I. The Operation partially disrupted
connectivity between Sohan D. Shira, 'commander-in-chief'
of GNLA, and his immediate aides.
Multiple
splits in militant outfits operating in the Garo Hills
have led to an increase in abduction and extortion cases.
Chief Minister Mukul Sangma, thus observed, “…..the new
outfits are mostly groups of deserters from ANVC, GNLA
and others, who are mostly engaged in extortion and kidnappings
and have no specific demands or ideology”.
The general
security environment in Manipur has seen marked
improvement over the past six years.
According to the SATP database, 54 fatalities [20 civilians,
10 SF personnel and 24 militants] were recorded in the
State in 2014, as compared to 55 [21 civilians, six SF
troopers, 28 militants] in 2013. Manipur had registered
485 insurgency-linked fatalities, including 131 civilians,
13 SF personnel and 341 militants, in 2008. Fatalities
have registered a constant decline thereafter, with the
exception of 2012, when there was a transient spike, primarily
due to increasing militant fatalities. Fatalities among
civilians have registered a continuous decline since 2008.
Fratricidal
clashes among Naga militant formations in Manipur have
also declined. There were just five such clashes in 2014
resulting in three fatalities, as against six such incidents,
resulting in eight fatalities in 2013. These clashes occurred
between the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) – at times
a combined force of ZUF and Nationalist Socialist Council
of Nagaland–Khaplang (NSCN-K)
– and the NSCN-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM),
and between NSCN-IM and NSCN-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-KK).
The spillover
of the Naga insurgency has led to considerable loss of
life in Manipur. Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam Gangmei,
who also holds the Home portfolio, revealed on July 15,
2014, that over 100 persons had been killed in Manipur
by NSCN-IM since the 1980’s. In 2014, at least 16 fatalities
out of a total of 54 insurgency-linked deaths in the State,
were linked to Naga groups.
At least
28 militant outfits remained active in Manipur through
2014, according to the SATP database, prominently including
the People’s Liberation Army (PLA),
United National Liberation Front (UNLF),
Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
NSCN-IM and ZUF. On August 29, 2013, the Union Government
had declared that 34 militant formations were active in
Manipur.
17 fatalities
[five civilian, one SF trooper and 12 militants] have
already been recorded in 2015.
The relative
peace achieved in Nagaland
was further consolidated through 2014, as insurgency-related
fatalities continued to decline. According to partial
data compiled by SATP, the State recorded a total of 15
fatalities, including 11 civilians (three incidents) and
four militants in 2014, as compared to 32 fatalities in
2013, including 11 civilians and 21 militants, a decline
of 53.12 per cent. As in 2013, there was no fatality among
SF personnel in 2014. Fatalities were reported from five
Districts in 2014 against seven in 2013. The deepening
peace is principally due to the signing of the 'Lenten
Agreement' on March 28, 2014, during a two-day reconciliation
meeting of three Naga militant groups - NSCN-IM, NSCN-KK
and Naga National Council/ Federal Government of Nagaland
(NNC/FGN) - at Dimapur, under the banner of the Forum
for Naga Reconciliation (FNR). The agreement, signed by
six top leaders of the three groups, stated that, in accordance
with the Naga Concordant signed on August 26, 2011, they
agreed "in principle to form the NNG [Naga National
Government]". The joint statement, following the
agreement, observed, “While this task is being carried
out, we call for maintenance of the status quo, by vigilantly
refraining from any unwarranted activities by the Nagas”.
According
to SATP data Arunachal
Pradesh recorded a total of nine
fatalities, including three civilians and six militants,
through 2014, as against four fatalities (all militants)
in 2013. Civilian killing was recorded in the State in
2014, for the first time since October 25, 2007. Out of
the three civilian killings, at least two occurred during
an Assam Rifles- NSCN-IM encounter in Tirap District.
Tripura
recorded four fatalities in 2014, including two civilians
and two SF personnel. Both SF personnel were killed by
cadres of the Biswamohan faction of National Liberation
Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM)
near the unfenced portion of the India-Bangladesh border
in Dhalai and North Tripura Districts. The last SF fatality,
before the 2014 killings, had been recorded on August
6, 2010, and NLFT-BM was responsible in that case as well.
Taking cognizance of the killings, the Inspector General
of the Border Security Force (BSF, Tripura Frontier),
B.N. Sharma, stated on November 28, 2014, “After two ambushes
on BSF troops, the operational strategy has been changed.
We have decided to send jawans in strong numbers to foil
their attempt.” Meanwhile, the NLFT-BM suffered a split
in early December 2014, with ‘commander’ Prabhat Jamatya
leaving the group's camp in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT)
with more than 25 followers and a large cache of arms
and ammunition. The NLFT-Prabhat faction (NLFT-P) is reportedly
headquartered in the sprawling house of a retired Bangladeshi
Policeman in Rajghat under the Chunarughat Sub-district
of Habiganj District in Bangladesh. These militants have
also started sending "tax notices" to Tripura
residents from across the border.
In Mizoram
the trend of low to zero fatalities recorded after 2007
continues, with no fatalities in 2013, and two
civilians in 2014. However, other
parameters of violence, such as explosions and abductions-for-extortion,
registered a minor increase through 2014, as against the
preceding year. Three explosions were recorded in 2014,
as against none in 2013. Fifteen persons were abducted
in 2014 against eight persons in 2013 in similar incidents
(these are likely underestimates, as many such incidents
go unreported).
Meanwhile,
on January 30, 2015, Mizoram Home Minister R. Lalzirliana
stated that the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA)
had agreed to organise a final six-month repatriation
process for internally-displaced Bru tribals, after which
all those who do not return to their homes in Mizoram,
from Tripura, would be removed from Mizoram’s electoral
rolls and further relief to them would also be stopped.
Official records show that almost 4,000 Bru families,
who have voting rights in Mizoram, continue to live in
relief camps in Tripura.
Long standing
inter-state border disputes involving Assam-Nagaland
and Assam-Arunachal Pradesh, which have periodically led
to violence, resulted in 31 fatalities in Assam during
2014. The role of NSCN-IM and Tani Land National Liberation
Tigers (TLNLT), a relatively insignificant group demanding
a separate homeland for the Tani people in Arunachal Pradesh,
was suspected in these killings.
The tentative
and uncertain relief achieved in the
Northeast over the past few years has overwhelmingly been
due to increasing Bangladeshi cooperation with Indian
security agencies after the Awami League, led by Sheikh
Hasina Wazed, came to power in January 2009. This period
of relief has, however, not been fully utilized by Assam
to beef up policing capabilities.
On March
3, 2015, Union Minister of State for Home Affair Haribhai
Parathibhai Chaudhary disclosed that, during 2009-14,
the Bangladeshi security agencies had arrested and handed
over 17 top militant leaders, including those from Meghalaya,
Tripura and Assam. Eight others were forced to surrender
before Indian authorities during the same period. The
most prominent militants who were handed over or had surrendered
included: Arabinda Rajkhowa [‘chairman’ undivided ULFA],
Raju Baruah [deputy commander-in-chief’ of undivided ULFA],
Chitrabon Hazarika [‘cultural secretary’ of undivided
ULFA], Shasa Choudhury [‘foreign secretary’ of undivided
ULFA], Ranjan Daimary [‘chairman’ NDFB-RD], G. Rifikhang
[‘vice-chairman’ of NDFB-RD], Dorsang Narzary [‘finance
secretary’ of NDFB-RD], Champion Sangma [‘chairman’ of
GNLA], R.K. Sanayaima alias Meghen [‘chairman’
UNLF] Ranjit Debbarma [‘chairman’ of All Tripura Tiger
Force (ATTF)]
and Naynbanshi Jamtiya [‘chairman’ of NLFT-NB].
Notably,
on November 29, 2014, SFs in Bangladesh killed eight NLFT-BM
militants in the Naraicherra area near Segun Bangan in
the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). The operation had been
launched following intelligence inputs provided by Indian
agencies. Similarly, Bangladesh SFs launched an operation
between November 24 and 28, 2014, destroying several NLFT-BM
hideouts in the Khagrachhari District of Bangladesh, forcing
36 NLFT-BM cadres to flee to the neighbouring Bandarban
District (Bangladesh). This operation also led to the
arrest of NLFT-BM ‘commander’ Kwaplai Debbarma aka
Karna (33) from the house of a former ATTF ‘commander’
Jewel Debbarma, in the Char Mile area of Khagrachhari
District.
Another
two threats are crystallizing in the region: Left Wing
Extremism (LWE) and jihadi terrorism. The Communist
Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) has been trying to
establish
organizational bases in the Northeast.
On July 30, 2014, Union Minister of State for Home Kiren
Rijiju noted, "The CPI (Maoist) has developed close
fraternal ties with Northeast insurgent groups like the
Revolutionary People's Front, PLA of Manipur, NSCN-IM
and ULFA. The outfit also forged tactical understanding
with the RPF, PLA and NSCN-IM for procuring arms and ammunition
and imparting military, communication training to its
cadres.” Further, the transnational jihadi presence
in Assam was further exposed through investigations into
the JMB Burdwan
Module in West Bengal. After the accidental
blast at Burdwan on October 2, 2014, in which two people
were killed and another was injured, a total of 17 persons
were arrested by the National Investigation Agency (NIA).
Significantly, after the announcement by Ayman al Zawahiri
of the formation of Al Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent
(AQIS) reports indicated that 23 youth from the Lilong
area of Thoubal District, Manipur, left to join the newly
constituted group. Four of these returned shortly thereafter,
while the remaining were reportedly untraceable.
The Union
Government has announced its intention to complete peace
talks with NSCN-IM within the current year under its strategy
of time bound negotiations. On October 18, 2014, while
commenting on peace talks with the Naga group, National
Security Adviser Ajit Doval noted, “There should never
be any feeling that it (talks) is protracted… The (peace)
process is the means to an end and if there is an end,
which is a desired end, it must be found in real time.
There should be rule of law in the Naga insurgency-affected
areas for which peace process must be completed as early
as possible." It remains to be seen how these declarations
are translated into policy and process. Two other NSCN
factions, the Khole-Kitovi and S.S. Khaplang factions,
are also observing a ceasefire with the Government.
Similar
negotiations for peaceful settlements are going on with
other armed groups in the region, including: the Pro Talks
Faction of NDFB (NDFB-PTF), Ranjan Daimary faction of
NDFB (NDFB-RD), Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation
Front (KLNLF),
Pro Talks Faction of ULFA (ULFA-PTF), five Adivasi militant
groups - Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA), Adivasi
People’s Army (APA), Santhal Tiger Force (STF), Birsa
Commando Force (BCF) and All Adivasi National Liberation
Army (AANLA);
and four Kuki and Hmar outfits - Kuki Revolution Army
(KRA),
Kuki Liberation Organization (KLO), Hmar Peoples Convention
Democratic (HPCD)
and United Kukigam Defence Army (UKDA) [all Assam based];
as well as 19 groups under the Kuki National Organisation
(KNO)
and United Progressive Front (UPF) [Kuki groups based
in Manipur].
In September
2014, the Prime Minister's Office directed the Project
Monitoring Group (PMG) of the Cabinet Secretariat to fast-track
21 development projects in the Northeast, including nine
in Arunachal Pradesh, seven in Assam, three in Tripura
and one each in Meghalaya and Manipur. The combined cost
of these projects is projected at INR 1001.51 billion.
11 of these are power projects, including erection of
transmission lines; another five are railway projects;
four are related to petroleum and natural gas; and one
cement plant. The Government also cleared INR 53.3618
billion under the Comprehensive Telecom Development Plan
for the Northeast region. The project envisages providing
second generation (2G) mobile technology coverage in identified
uncovered areas and seamless mobile coverage along National
Highways in the region. At present, there are 43,200 villages
in this region of which 9,190 (21 per cent) are not connected
to any mobile network. Under this project, the Cabinet
has approved covering 8,621 villages by installing 6,673
towers.
On February
14, 2015, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh made an appeal
to give “at least 10 years' time to develop the Northeast.
Development of Northeast India is the top priority of
the incumbent Central Government”
The Government
plan to enhance connectivity and boost development, however,
faces obstacles due to the presence of external agencies,
including Pakistan’s Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI),
and unsecured international borders. On February 28, 2015,
Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar warned, "The
ISI is preventing militants of Tripura, who still have
20 camps in Bangladesh, from joining the mainstream… Their
[ISI] ultimate agenda is to continue with disturbing peace
in the region, which we need to counter with political
ideology and administrative action."
Earlier,
on August 19, 2014, Sudesh Kumar, IG BSF (Meghalaya Frontier),
had raised the issue of illegal arms trade, observing,
“There are isolated instances of arms and ammunition entering
into the country across the international border with
Bangladesh, but a substantial quantity is coming from
the international border with Myanmar and China.”
The Northeast
presents many challenges unique to the region, with different
militant and ethnic groups pursuing divergent and mutually
exclusive objectives through a multiplicity of armed struggles.
The situation is compounded by unsecured border, poor
governance – both within the region and in neighbouring
countries – the illegal arms trade, and external mischief.
Despite the persistence of troubles in the region, there
has been little coherence in response by State Governments,
with the conspicuous exception of Tripura, and no sense
of urgency or strategic vision displayed by the Centre.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Government has made some
bold announcements suggesting that things are slated to
change in the foreseeable future – but such declarations
of intent by New Delhi are not unique. It remains to be
seen whether implementation will progress with the necessary
measure of efficiency or effectiveness to bring enduring
relief to this violence wracked region.
|