| |
SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 27, January 05, 2015
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
Afghanistan:
Recycling History
Ajit
Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
The US
has a long history of failed military campaigns abroad,
and an entrenched proclivity to 'declare victory and run'.
As 2014 came to a close, the US-led coalition in Afghanistan
added another page to this dismal history, when the International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) officially concluded
its combat mission in Afghanistan at an event held at
ISAF headquarters in capital city Kabul on December 28,
2014. ISAF had been constituted under US leadership under
the Bonn Agreement 13 years earlier, in December 2001.
The ISAF worked under the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
(NATO). NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in a statement,
on the same day, boasted,
The
mandate of the United Nations Security Council was
to help the Afghan authorities provide security
across the country and develop new Afghan Forces.
This mandate was carried out at great cost, but
with great success… Thanks to the remarkable effort
of our forces, we have achieved what we set out
to do. We have made our own nations safer, by denying
safe haven to international terrorists. We have
made Afghanistan stronger, by building up from scratch
strong security forces..
|
Regrettably,
however, the Secretary General's statement remains far
from reality. Afghanistan today is unsecure and volatile,
and is home to a multiplicity of Islamist extremist and
terrorist formations that constitute a tremendous and
potentially global threat. Moreover, the grave risks located
in the wider Af-Pak region, and the neglect of the principal
source of Islamist terrorism in the South Asian region
- Pakistan - was studiously ignored through the period
of ISAF's engagement in Afghanistan, despite the continuous
losses inflicted on ISAF personnel and infrastructure
by terrorist formations located on Pakistani soil. Afghanistan
is now utterly exposed to the dangers of a proxy war by
the Pakistani state backing the Taliban, as well as an
incendiary mix of radicalized terrorist formations that
have slipped out of Pakistani state control.
As per
numbers compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management
(ICM) from various sources, 2014 recorded the highest
terrorism-related fatalities since 2007 (comprehensive
data on fatalities in Afghanistan has been available only
since 2007). Through 2014, a total of 10,373 fatalities
were recorded, surpassing the previous high of 10,193
in 2010. Overall fatalities increased by almost 38.97
per cent in 2014, as compared to 2013.
Terrorism-related
Fatalities in Afghanistan: 2007-2014
Years
|
Civilians*
|
Security Force
Personnel**
|
Militants***
|
Total
|
Afghan
National Army (ANA)
|
Afghan
National Police (ANA)
|
ISAF
|
|
|
2007
|
1523
|
209
|
803
|
232
|
4500
|
7267
|
2008 |
2118
|
226
|
880
|
295
|
5000
|
8519
|
2009
|
2412
|
282
|
646
|
521
|
4610
|
8471
|
2010
|
2777
|
519
|
961
|
711
|
5225
|
10193
|
2011
|
3021
|
550
|
1400
|
566
|
4275
|
9812
|
2012
|
2754
|
1200
|
2200
|
402
|
2716
|
9272
|
2013
|
2959
|
560
|
1082
|
161
|
2702
|
7464
|
2014
|
3298
|
413
|
357
|
75
|
6230
|
10373
|
Total
|
20862
|
3959
|
8329
|
2963
|
35258
|
71371
|
*Data
till December 31, 2014
Sources: [*Civilians: 2007-November 30, 2014, UNAMA;
December 1, 2014, onwards Institute for Conflict
Management (ICM)], [**SFs: ANA-2007-2013, Brookings;
2014: ICM; ANP-2007-2012, Brookings, 2013-2014,
ICM; ISAF: ISAF website], [***Militants: ICM]
|
Fatalities
among civilians, the best indicator of the prevailing
security scenario in any theatre of conflict, have been
rising constantly since 2007 [when the United Nations
Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) first began
counting civilian fatalities], with the exception of 2012.
2014 registered 3,298 fatalities among civilians, the
highest ever recorded by UNAMA.
In one
of the deadliest attacks targeting civilians, in 2014,
terrorists carried out a suicide attack on a large crowd
watching a volleyball match in Paktika Province, killing
at least 53 civilians, including 21 children, on November
23. Earlier on July 15, 2014, 89 people were killed when
a suicide bomber, driving a truck packed with explosives,
had blown himself up when he was stopped by the Afghan
National Security Forces (ANSF) in a busy market area
in the Urgun District of Paktika Province.
Raising
concern about civilian security, Hadi Marifat, a Kabul-based
analyst with the Centre for Civilians in Conflict, observed,
“There is a lot of concern for the rise in civilian casualties.
The more territory the Taliban tries to occupy in the
coming years, the more civilian casualties there will
be because of military confrontations.” Significantly,
Taliban is 'regaining' its control at an alarming rate.
A December 14, 2014, report thus observes, "There
is no government whatsoever as soon as you travel around
12 miles away from any district centre in Helmand province,
southern Afghanistan. The British and the US forces left
the southern area at the end of October, and in just over
a month, vast swathes of the countryside have seemingly
been lost to the Taliban." Indeed, varying media
sources estimate that the Taliban, which lost power in
2001 as the US and its allies launched Operation Enduring
Freedom in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks
in the US, has regrouped and now dominates an estimated
40 to 60 per cent of Afghanistan.
In another
indicator of the deteriorating security scenario, a total
of 19,469 'security incidents' were recorded across the
country in 2014 (data till November 15) as against 17,645
such incidents recorded during the corresponding period
of 2013, an increase of 10.3 per cent, according to a
UN report. The southern, south eastern and eastern parts
of the country, all along the Pakistan border, which account
for 69 per cent of the reported incidents, remain the
most volatile regions.
This enveloping
insecurity forced ISAF to turn its headquarters in Kabul
into a fortress during the December 28 'end of mission'
ceremony. Not to miss an opportunity, the Afghan Taliban,
through its 'spokesman' Zabihullah Mujahid, mocked ISAF
on December 29:
The
ISAF withdrawal ceremony went strangely unheralded
in the United States and much of the world and then
news surfaced that ISAF was going to arrange its
big farewell ceremony in secret due to threat of
Mujahidin attacks in Kabul. ISAF rolled up its flag
in an atmosphere of failure and disappointment without
having achieved anything substantial or tangible.
It should be emphasized that due to the blessed
Jihad most of the involved nations excluding America
have withdrawn all of their troops from Afghanistan...
Without a doubt the defeat of the infidel Western
military alliance in Afghanistan [sic] at
the hands of a few empty handed believing Mujahidin,
the destruction of fortified bases by their own
hands and their hasty withdrawal were unconceivable
[sic] and is a clear sign of the divine help
of Allah Almighty. While the admonitory withdrawal
of foreign forces is taking place, the presence
of their internal stooges is being rolled back from
much of the country at the same time. Mujahidin
are taking over new areas daily, dismantling their
bases and are tightening their sieges. The demoralised
American-built forces will constantly be dealt defeats
just like their masters.
|
Indeed,
ISAF with the US at the helm, has lost the battle. This
is the third time foreign troops have returned defeated
from Afghan land. During the ‘First Great Game’, it was
the British Indian Forces that fought and lost in Afghanistan
in 19th Century (twice, between 1839-42 and
1878-1880). Soviet Forces waged a losing battle for over
nine years, during the course of the ‘Second Great Game’,
to eventually withdraw in humiliation in 1989. As with
these Forces, ISAF now leaves Afghanistan in utter disarray.
US President
Barack Obama, while hailing ISAF's role, nevertheless
conceded, on December 28, 2014, "Afghanistan remains
a dangerous place, and the Afghan people and their security
forces continue to make tremendous sacrifices in defense
of their country. US forces in the country will continue
to face risks..."
The US
role in Afghanistan is, however, unlikely to end. A contingent
of US 'military advisors' and Special Forces will remain
stationed in the country, and the drone campaign against
the Taliban and its allies is expected to continue. The
US is also likely to put additional pressure on Islamabad
to end support to destabilizing forces in Afghanistan.
The minimum expected is that the US will now drastically
cut economic aid to Pakistan, as it has been proved time
and again that authorities in Pakistan have used this
aid to promote terror groups inimical to both Afghanistan
and India. These terrorist organizations operating out
of Pakistani soil have carried out numerous attacks inside
Afghanistan, targeting Afghan and Indian interest, as
well as ISAF units. Thus, in the case of the July 17,
2014, attack by heavily armed Taliban terrorists on the
Kabul International Airport, the Afghan Interior Ministry
spokesman, Sediq Sediqi, asserted that the attack was
either plotted by the Pakistan’s external Intelligence
Agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) or the Haqqani
Network. Earlier, on May 23, 2014, gunmen armed with machine
guns and RPGs attacked the Indian Consulate in Herat Province
in Afghanistan. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) personnel
and Afghan SFs in an encounter that lasted 10 hours killed
all the four attackers. Then Afghanistan President Hamid
Karzai confirmed, "According to information given
to us by a Western intelligence agency, the perpetrators
of the Herat attack belonged to the LeT
[Lashkar-e-Taiba]. This was mentioned in writing in the
report shared with us". LeT is ISI’s most trusted
terrorist proxy.
Meanwhile,
the NATO has now begun its Resolute Support Mission (RSM).
Approximately 12,000 personnel from the 28-member NATO
and 14 partner nations will be deployed in support of
the mission. The mission is planned to operate with one
central hub (in Kabul/Bagram) and four 'spokes' in Mazar-e
Sharif, Herat, Kandahar and Laghman. Its key functions
include:
Supporting planning,
programming and budgeting;
Assuring transparency, accountability and
oversight;
Supporting adherence to the principles of
rule of law and good governance;
Supporting establishment and sustainment of
such processes as force generation, recruiting,
training, managing and development of person
|
RSM clearly states that
"this mission will not involve combat” and 12,000
personnel performing broadly administrative and training
assistance and oversight functions are not going to secure
Afghanistan where the much larger ISAF, with 132,457 personnel,
as on July 26, 2011, failed. RSM was preceded by the signing
of two separate security pacts by Afghanistan with the
US and NATO.
The burden
now falls on an underprepared ANSF (strength of about
350,000). Significantly, Lieutenant General Joseph Anderson,
a top commander of the Coalition Forces in Afghanistan,
on November 5, 2014, disclosed that 4,634 ANSF personnel
were killed in action in 2014, adding to 4,350 killed
in 2013. It is useful to note that, during the entire
course of its combat mission, over 13 years, ISAF lost
a total of 3,485 personnel.
ANSF is
also riddled with Taliban elements that have been infiltrated
into the Force, as well as numerous 'green-on-green' fratricidal
killings, and large scale desertions. Further, according
to a US Department of Defense "Report on Progress
toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan" published
in November 2013, between April 1 and September 30, 2013,
there were 33 'insider attacks' against ANSF, up from
20 during the same period in 2012, an increase of 65 percent.
The updated version of the same report published in October
2014, though, did not provide details of such attacks,
but noted, "The threat of insider attacks continues
to be a challenge for the ANSF and will require continued
close coordination." Gulab Khan, the head of criminal
investigations in Uruzgan Province, observed that the
killing of Afghan Forces by their own colleagues was an
increasingly urgent problem: “If we have local police
who are easily switching to the Taliban, soon the aftermath
will be grave and will pose a big threat to the Afghan
Government.”
Nevertheless,
the year witnessed a significant positive development.
For the first time in its recent history Afghanistan saw
a violence-free transition
of power from one civilian Government to
another, following a successfully held Presidential Election.
Moreover, in a sign of growing political stability, despite
a protracted
faceoff,
an agreement to form a National Unity Government was signed
on September 21, and subsequently Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
was sworn in as President and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah as
the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) in the new Government,
on September 29, 2014.
Crucially,
58 per cent and 60 per cent of voters risked their lives
to cast their vote in the two phases of the Presidential
election in April and June 2014, despite Taliban threats
and escalating violence, suggesting a tremendous surge
in popular support to the democratic process. The 2009
Presidential elections had recorded a turnout of 38.7
per cent.
Unfortunately,
Afghanistan's future will continue to be defined substantially
by Islamabad's mischief. Unless Pakistan is compelled
by the international community to end its support to the
Taliban and other extremist formations in Afghanistan,
the prevailing troubles can only escalate.
|
MANIPUR:
Fragile Consolidation
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Three non-locals
[non-Manipuris] were killed and another four were injured
in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast at a tea
stall run by a non-local at Khoyathong, near the Motbung
Bus Parking in Imphal West District, on December 21, 2014.
The dead were identified as Ram Khusum Das, Shiva Kumar
and Lallan, all hailing from Uttar Pradesh.
In a similar
incident, on December 15, two migrant traders hailing
from Bihar were killed and another four were injured,
when a powerful IED exploded at a betel leaf market located
in Thangal Bazar in Imphal East District.
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), a total of eight non-locals, hailing
from States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal
were killed and 47 were injured in six incidents of attacks
targeting non-locals across the State through 2014. In
2013, 12 people were killed and another 39 were injured
in seven such attacks.
Despite
these incidents, however, the general security environment
in the State has seen marked improvement over the past
six years. Indeed, according to the SATP
database, 54 fatalities [20 civilians,
10 Security Force (SF) personnel and 24 militants] were
recorded in the State in 2014, as compared to 55 [21 civilians,
six SF troopers, 28 militants] in 2013. Manipur had registered
485 insurgency-linked fatalities, including 131 civilians,
13 SF personnel and 341 militants, in 2008. Fatalities
have registered a constant decline thereafter, with the
exception of 2012, when there was a spike, primarily due
to increasing militant fatalities, at 73 in 2012, as compared
to 30 in 2011. Fatalities among civilians have registered
a constant decline since 2008.
Other parameters
of violence also declined through 2014. As against five
major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities)
resulting in 25 fatalities in 2013, 2014 saw four such
incidents resulting in 11 deaths. 2014 recorded 66 incidents
of explosions, in which 15 persons were killed and 76
were injured, as against 76 incidents in 2013, which resulted
in 24 fatalities and 103 injuries.
Fratricidal
clashes between Naga militants also declined. There were
just five such clashes through 2014 resulting in three
fatalities. These clashes occurred between the Zeliangrong
United Front (ZUF) – at times a combined force of ZUF
and Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland–Khaplang
(NSCN-K)
– and the NSCN-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM),
and between NSCN-IM and NSCN-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-KK). There
were seven such incidents, resulting in nine fatalities,
in 2013.
The number
of Districts from where killings were reported remained
the same – at eight - in both 2013 and 2014. The maximum
number of fatalities were reported from Ukhrul (12), followed
jointly by Tamenglong, Senapati and Imphal East (eight
each). By comparison, in 2013, Tamenglong recorded the
highest fatalities, at 12; followed by Senapati, 11.
SF action
resulted in an increased number of militants arrested.
536 militants were arrested in 2014, as against 368 in
2013. Arrested militants prominently included People’s
Liberation Army (PLA),
58; People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK),
56; United National Liberation Front (UNLF),
55; Progressive faction of PREPAK (PREPAK-PRO), 45; Kanglei
Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
42; and ZUF, nine. Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam Gangmei
stated in the State Assembly on July 23, 2014, that a
total of 2,432 militants had been arrested in the State
since April 2012 and INR 61.86 million was recovered from
them. While 2,415 militants were arrested within the State,
17 were arrested in locations outside State boundaries.
He added that 1,154 militants were in judicial custody
and eight were in Police custody, while 1,270 cadres had
been released on bail.
At least
93 militants surrendered in 2014, adding to 273 in 2013.
In one the most significant surrenders of 2014, 57 militants
of three different militant groups – 35 of the K. K. Nganba
faction of Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP-
K.K. Nganba; 20 of the Nongdrenkhomba faction of KCP-
Military Council (KCP-MC-Nongdrenkhomba); and two of the
Vice-chairman Faction of PREPAK - surrendered and laid
down their arms in a 'home coming ceremony' on December
15, 2014. The surrendered militants included Nongdrenkhomba,
'commander-in-chief' of KCP-MC; Ningomba Nabachandra alias
Naba, 'chairman' of the PREPAK-VC faction; and Potsangbam
Chinglen alias London, 'finance secretary ‘of PREPAK.
On December 19, 2014, Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam
Gangmei informed the State Assembly that a total of 2,731
underground cadres belonging to various armed groups operating
in the State were being provided assistance under the
Centre’s surrender policy: “Out of them, 1,122 belong
to different groups under KNO (Kuki National Organisation),
1059 under UPF (United People’s Front) groups, besides
550 others.” Currently, about 19 underground groups under
KNO and UPF are under a Suspension of Operations (SoO)
Agreement in the State.
The threat
from the most active militant formation, Coordination
Committee (CorCom), has also decreased. CorCom was responsible
for eight fatalities in 2014, the same as in 2013, and
accounted for 10 blasts through 2014, as against 28 in
2013. CorCom was set up on July 8, 2011, by seven Imphal
Valley based groups (reduced to six after UPPK’s ouster
in January 2013).
Urgent
concerns do, however, remain. The number of incidents
of killing increased from 10 in 2013 to 31 in 2014. Three
SF personnel were killed along with nine militants in
11 incidents of encounters between rebels and the SFs
in 2014. Though number of such encounters in 2013 was
a higher 13, no SF trooper was killed in such encounters,
and all 15 fatalities in such encounters were militants.
In terms
of lethality, ZUF remained the most active outfit. Out
of 54 killings in 2014, 10 were linked to ZUF, followed
by NSCN-IM (six). Out of the total of 20 civilian fatalities
in 2014, only seven could be attributed to a specific
terror outfit. Naga militant formations were responsible
for five of these [NSCN-IM (two), Manipur Naga Revolutionary
Front (MNRF) (two), and ZUF (one)]; while PLA was responsible
for the other two. 13 fatalities remained unattributed.
Indeed,
the spillover of the Naga insurgency has led to significant
loss of life in Manipur. Deputy Chief Minister Gangmei,
who also holds the Home portfolio, revealed on July 15,
2014, that over 100 persons had been killed in Manipur
by NSCN-IM since the 1980’s. Further, at least eight members
of the Autonomous District Councils (ADCs) of Manipur
[formed under the provisions of the Manipur (Hill Areas)
District Council (Third Amendment) Act 2008] are on the
NSCN-IM's hit list. Suspected NSCN-IM militants have already
killed the former Vice Chairman and Member of the Ukhrul
Autonomous District Council (UADC), Ngalangzar Malue,
at Finch Corner in Ukhrul District on July 12, 2014. His
nephew Ratanmi Malue and driver Khangembam Bigyani were
injured in the attack.
Out of
the 10 SF fatalities in 2014, six were attributed to Valley
based groups - three each to UNLF and PLA. The two Naga
outfits - NSCN-IM and ZUF - were responsible for one SF
fatality each.
At least
28 militant outfits remained active in the State through
2014, according to the SATP database. These primarily
included PLA, UNLF, KYKL, NSCN-IM and ZUF. On August 29,
2013, the Union Government had declared that 34 militant
formations were active in Manipur.
The State
recorded an increase in the number of extortion and abduction
cases during in 2014. 27 extortion cases were reported
during 2014, as compared to 14 in 2013 [the reported instances
are likely a fraction of the actual incidence]. The Union
Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) issued a public notice
on March 9, 2014, asking all sections of people in general
and affluent groups in particular to lodge complaints
with the nearest Police Station or inform the Ministry
through helplines, if such incidents occurred. The notification
stated that names of the underground organisations, amount
demanded, their telephone numbers and other particulars
should be notified to the Police Stations and the MHA.
The victims were required to use their own telephone numbers,
and complaints lodged using some other phones would not
be entertained or acknowledged. The identity of the callers,
the notification stated, would be kept confidential. No
further information is available on the implementation
of this measure.
There were
at least 31 recorded incidents of abductions through 2014,
with 43 persons abducted. 23 registered incidents resulting
in 40 abductions are on record in 2013.
The year
also witnessed increased activities of Islamist outfits
in the State. Worryingly, in July 2014, it was reported
that at least 23 youth from the Lilong area in Thoubal
District had left home to join al-Qaeda. According to
a September 5 report, an unnamed Government official disclosed,
“They had gone in two batches. Four have returned home
while the others are untraceable.” The official disclosed
further that these recruits were first indoctrinated and
trained in weapons before being placed in the actual war
theatres in Afghanistan and Iraq. Significantly, Deputy
CM, Gaikhangam confirmed that al Qaeda was recruiting
youth from the Northeast, noting, “It is a fact that Al-Qaida
recruits youth from the Northeast, and we must take care
of the element that is threatening the sovereignty and
integrity of the nation.” However, State-based Muslim
outfits, including People's United Liberation Front (PULF),
remained dormant.
With ethnic
militant formations maintaining safe bases in Myanmar
and Bangladesh, insurgency in the State is far from over.
The Border Security Force (BSF), during the 3-day bi-annual
Inspector General level meeting for border management
and coordination, commencing on March 6, 2014, handed
over a list of 66 camps of insurgent groups, operating
in India's Northeast, which exist inside Bangladesh, to
their Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) counterparts. The
list included camps of the Manipur-based KYKL and PLA.
Besides, CorCom is based in Myanmar, and is mulling plans
for increased coordination amongst various militant groups
operating in India's Northeast. CorCom ‘convenor’ Khun-dongbam
Pambei, in a Press Statement on the occasion of the Committee’s
third foundation day (July 8, 2014), stated that the people
of Manipur and ‘Western South East Asia (WESEA)’ [Northeast
India] would soon see a new face of the ongoing revolutionary
movement with its ‘Joint Fighting Force (JFF)’ determined
to step up its armed campaign against the Indian military
under the command of the ‘Joint Military Council (JMC)’.
Under the
prevailing circumstances, the State Cabinet extended the
'disturbed area status’ of the State under the Armed Forces
Special Powers Act (AFSPA) for another year, from December
1, 2014. State Education Minister and Government spokesman
M. Okendro, while announcing the decision to the media,
observed, "Taking serious note of frequent bomb blasts
and other acts of violence, the Government considered
it necessary to extend the disturbed area status in the
state."
Meanwhile,
Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh on August 15, 2014, stated
that the demand for an 'Alternative Arrangement' by the
Nagas in Manipur was a 'pipe dream' and added that if
it was conceded, the integrity of the State would be jeopardized.
Also, Union Minister of State (MoS) for Home Affairs,
Kiren Rijiju, observed that the Union Government would
not allow the ongoing peace talks with NSCN-IM to jeopardize
the State’s territorial integrity. The United Naga Council
(UNC) is leading the movement for an Alternative Arrangement
for Naga inhabited areas of the State. UNC held its first
round of political level talks with representatives of
the Union Government in Senapati District on February
6, 2014. Earlier, six rounds of tripartite talks had been
held between State, Union Government and UNC representatives,
before the political level talks.
Manipur
boasts of a significantly high police population ratio,
at 1,020 policemen per 100,000 population, many multiples
of the national average of 141 (at the end of 2013, according
to National Crime Records Bureau data). Unfortunately,
recruitment to the Police (as well as other Departments
of Government) is seen more as an employment generation
activity in the State, rather than as a security measure,
and the quality and preparedness of the Force is abysmal.
Manipur Police has planned to modernize its functioning,
to include cyber crime investigation, enhancing the mobility
of the force, improving communication system, upgrading
the striking capability with induction of sophisticated
weapons, increasing office space and housing of lower
subordinates, procuring security gadgets, and to professionalize
its working in 2015, according to state police sources.
The State Police Department Public Relations Officer,
S. Gautam, stated, on January 2, 2015, “Efforts are also
on to upgrade the knowledge and skills of all field operatives
especially the armed police by putting them through Refresher
Training Courses both within and outside the State.”
While it
is now established state policy to seek negotiated solutions
with armed rebel groups, it is necessary for the state
to define the limits beyond which it will not compromise,
and to strengthen its security apparatus to control future
challenges.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
December 29,
2014 - January 4, 2015
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
5
|
1
|
5
|
11
|
FATA
|
4
|
1
|
63
|
68
|
KP
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
Sindh
|
7
|
0
|
4
|
11
|
PAKISTAN
(Total)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
INDIA
Four
suspected
terrorists
dead
as
intruder
boat
blows
itself
up
off
Gujarat
coast:
Coast
Guard
patrol
vessels
intercepted
a
suspicious
Pakistani
fishing
boat
in
the
Arabian
Sea
in
the
early
hours
of
January
1.
Ministry
of
Defence
(MoD)
officials
said
the
four
people
on
the
fishing
trawler
set
it
ablaze
after
an
"hour-long
hot
pursuit",
which
ended
with
"warning
shots"
being
fired
to
stop
the
vessel
around
365
km
from
Porbandar
in
Gujarat.
The
ship,
with
those
on
board,
finally
sank
to
the
seabed
amid
loud
explosions
around
6.30am
on
January
1.
Times
of
India,
January
3,
2015.
Terror
groups
ready
to
cross
over
LoC
and
IB
before
Barack
Obama's
visit,
according
to
intelligence
report:
Groups
of
Pakistani
terrorists
have
positioned
themselves
at
eight
to
nine
launch
pads
along
the
Line
of
Control
(LoC)
and
International
Border
(IB)
in
Jammu
&
Kashmir
(J&K).
They
are
waiting
to
infiltrate
under
the
cover
of
fire
provided
by
Pakistani
forces,
for
carrying
out
attacks
in
India
ahead
of
US
President
Barack
Obama's
visit
in
January,
according
to
sources
in
the
Indian
security
establishment.
Times
of
India,
January
3,
2015.
ISI
upset
with
LeT
over
peaceful
J&K
elections,
says
report:
Pakistan's
Inter-Services
Intelligence
(ISI)
is
disappointed
with
militant
group
Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT)
over
the
peaceful
conduct
of
Jammu
and
Kashmir
(J&K)
elections.
According
to
reports,
ISI
had
asked
LeT
to
disrupt
the
elections
in
J&K.
However,
due
to
effective
vigilance
of
Indian
Security
Forces,
LeT
failed
to
disrupt
the
polls
in
which
65.2
voters
cast
their
vote.
Zee
News,
January
3,
2015.
NLFT
suffers
another
split:
The
National
Liberation
Front
of
Tripura
(NLFT)
has
suffered
another
split
with
"commander"
Prabhat
Jamatya
(39),
in
early
December
2014,
leaving
the
group's
camp
in
the
Chittagong
Hill
Tracts
of
Bangladesh
with
more
than
25
followers
and
a
large
number
of
arms
and
ammunition.
NLFT-Prabhat,
have
based
themselves
in
the
large
and
sprawling
house
of
a
retired
Bangladeshi
Policeman
in
Rajghat
the
tea
garden
area
under
Chunarughat
subdistrict
of
Bangladesh,
which
borders
Monaibari
under
Khowai
Subdivision
of
Tripura.
Telegraph,
January
2,
2015.
BSF
trooper
and
four
Pakistan
Rangerss
killed
as
Pakistan
violates
CFA
in
Jammu
and
Kashmir:
Four
Pakistani
Rangers
were
killed
after
Border
Security
Force
(BSF)
personnel
retaliated
effectively
the
Pakistan
shelling
and
firing
in
Samba
sector
during
the
day
in
which
one
BSF
trooper
was
killed
and
another
injured
while
mortar
shells
and
bullets
fell
in
fields
and
close
to
civilians
houses
at
Khwara,
Regal,
Suchetgarh
Kullian
and
Mawa
in
Samba
sector
of
Samba
District
on
December
31.
The
Rangers
resorted
to
unprovoked
firing
on
the
BSF
posts
and
civilian
areas
at
Khwara,
Regal,
Suchetgarh
Kullian
and
Mawa
along
the
International
Border
in
Samba
sector
at
1.15
pm.
Daily
Excelsior,
January
1,
2015.
Government
blocks
32
websites
carrying
anti-India
content
from
Islamic
State,
says
report:
Government
has
blocked
32
websites
citing
national
security
concerns,
as
they
were
allegedly
carrying
anti-India
material
from
terror
groups
such
as
Islamic
State
(IS).
"We
have
blocked
some
websites,
as
there
were
serious
national
security
concerns,"
an
unnamed
government
official
said.
The
websites
that
have
faced
the
crackdown
include
popular
video
sharing
platforms
like
DailyMotion
and
Vimeo,
while
some
of
them
have
been
allowed
to
function
after
removing
the
objectionable
content.
IBN
Live,
January
1,
2015.
Cybercrime
goes
up
by
over
40
per
cent,
according
to
reports:
Cybercrimes
have
registered
an
annual
increase
of
more
than
40
per
cent
in
India
in
the
past
two
years.
According
to
Union
Ministry
of
Home
Affairs
(UMHA)
statistics,
as
many
as
71,780
cyberfrauds
were
reported
in
2013,
while
22,060
such
cases
were
reported
in
2012.
There
have
been
62,189
incidents
of
cyber
frauds
till
June,
2014.
In
2013,
a
total
of
28,481
Indian
websites
were
hacked
by
various
hacker
groups
spread
across
the
globe.
The
number
of
hacking
incidents
were
27,605
in
2012
and
21,699
in
2011.
Times
of
India,
December
31,
2014.
NEPAL
UCPN-M
forms
sub-committees
to
manage
protest
programmes:
The
Unified
Communist
Party
of
Nepal-Maoist
(UCPN-M)
has
formed
five
sub-committees
to
manage
its
upcoming
January
3-19
protest
programmes
and
make
them
systematic
and
effective.
The
protests
are
aimed
at
putting
pressure
on
the
ruling
coalition
to
choose
consensus
ahead
of
the
Constituent
Assembly's
(CA)
January
22,
2015,
schedule
for
bringing
out
a
new
constitution.
Nepal
News,
January
2,
2015.
PAKISTAN
63
militants
and
four
civilians
among
68
persons
killed
during
the
week
in
FATA:
At
least
31
militants
have
been
killed
and
scores
of
others
injured
as
jet
fighters
targeted
militants
hideouts
in
Koki
Khel
area
of
Tirah
Valley
in
Khyber
Agency
of
Federally
Administered
Tribal
Areas
(FATA)
on
January
4.
A
United
States
(US)
drone
strike
at
Wacha
Basti
village
near
Alwara
Mandi
in
Dattakhel
of
North
Waziristan
Agency
(NWA)
killed
eight
militants
and
injured
two
others
on
January
4.
A
bomb
targeting
Shias
at
a
volleyball
match
killed
at
least
four
persons
and
injured
eight
at
the
Hussaini
ground
in
the
Kalaya
area
of
Orakzai
Agency
on
January
4.
At
least
23
militants
were
killed
when
Pakistan
Air
Force
(PAF)
fighter
jets
on
December
31
pounded
suspected
militant
positions
in
the
Shawal
area
of
NWA.
Daily
Times;
Dawn;
The
News;
Tribune;
Central
Asia
Online;
The
Nation;
The
Frontier
Post;
Pakistan
Today;
Pakistan
Observer,
December
30,
2014-January
5,
2015.
Operation
against
TTP,
its
supporters
and
sympathisers
launched,
says
Federal
Minister
of
Interior
Chaudhry
Nisar
Ali
Khan:
The
Federal
Minister
of
Interior
Chaudhry
Nisar
Ali
Khan
said
on
January
3
that
action
had
been
launched
against
the
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP),
its
supporters
and
sympathisers.
Speaking
at
a
press
conference,
he
said
it
had
been
decided
in
the
National
Action
Plan
(NAP)
that
TTP
operatives,
their
supporters,
masterminds
and
financiers
would
be
identified
across
the
country.
The
Federal
intelligence
agencies
would
cooperate
with
provinces
to
accomplish
the
task,
he
added.
Dawn,
January
5,
2015.
Resurgence
of
Lal
Masjid
cleric
Maulana
Abdul
Aziz
poses
security
threat,
warn
Security
Agencies:
A
report
titled
'Activities
of
Maulana
Abdul
Aziz',
forwarded
to
the
Federal
Ministry
of
Interior
by
the
Security
Agencies
on
January
4
warned
the
Government
that
due
to
his
links
with
militant
outfits
and
his
anti-government
rhetoric
the
resurgence
of
Lal
Masjid
cleric
Abdul
Aziz
poses
security
threat
to
the
law
and
order
situation
in
Islamabad.
The
report
states
that
the
"Lal
Masjid
mafia"
has
links
with
militant
groups
and
land
grabbers
and
is
currently
reorganising
the
Ghazi
Force
spawned
by
his
own
followers
after
the
Lal
Masjid
operation
in
2007.
Dawn,
January
5,
2015.
TTP-JuA
'spokesperson'
Ehsanullah
Ehsan's
account
emerges
on
social
networking
site
LinkedIn:
Ehsanullah
Ehsan,
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan-Jama'at-ul-Ahrar
(TTP-JuA)
'spokesperson',
has
been
found
using
social
networking
site
LinkedIn,
listing
his
skills
as
"jihad
and
journalism".
Ehsanullah
Ehsan
has
69
connections
on
LinkedIn,
indicating
a
sizable
network.
Ehsan
does
not
hide
his
associations
and
openly
promotes
himself
on
LinkedIn
as
'spokesman'
for
TTP-JuA.
Times
of
India,
The
Telegraph,
January
5,
2015.
Three
special
courts
set
up
in
Punjab,
KP
and
Balochistan:
Three
special
courts
were
formed
on
January
1
in
accordance
with
the
Protection
of
Pakistan
Act
(PPA)
to
preside
over
cases
relating
to
terrorism.
Five
special
courts
are
to
be
formed
in
total.
The
three
courts
have
been
formed
in
Peshawar
(Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa),
Lahore
(Punjab)
and
Quetta
(Balochistan)
in
accordance
with
the
PPA
passed
by
parliament
in
order
to
curb
rising
militancy
in
the
country.
Judge
Mukarrab
Khan
will
head
the
special
court
in
Lahore,
Judge
Zafar
Khosa
in
Quetta
and
judge
Anwar
Ali
Khan
will
preside
over
the
court
in
Peshawar.
Daily
Times,
January
2,
2015.
Consensus
against
terror
not
be
lost
to
petty
rifts,
says
CoAS
General
Raheel
Sharif:
The
Chief
of
the
Army
Staff
(CoAS),
General
Raheel
Sharif,
on
January
1
said
the
political
consensus
against
terrorism
should
not
be
lost
to
petty
differences.
He
said
the
entire
nation
was
looking
towards
the
political
and
military
leadership
of
the
country
to
take
bold
and
meaningful
decisions
leading
to
stern
action
against
the
terrorists
and
their
sympathisers.
He
was
addressing
the
178th
Corps
Commanders
Conference
at
the
General
Headquarters.
The
News,
January
2,
2015.
Punjab
is
the
training
centre
for
terrorists,
says
ANP
Central
General
Secretary
Mian
Iftikhar
Hussain:
Awami
National
Party
(ANP)
Central
General
Secretary
Mian
Iftikhar
Hussain
on
January
1
declared
Punjab
a
training
centre
for
terrorists
and
their
masterminds
and
demanded
that
the
Government
begin
a
decisive
action
against
terrorist
outfits
in
the
province.
He
was
speaking
at
the
'Shuhada
Amn
Qaumi
Conference'
here
at
Nishtar
Hall
in
Peshawar.
Mian
Iftikhar
told
participants
that
terrorism
could
not
be
eliminated
from
the
country
until
an
operation
began
against
terrorist
organisations
in
Punjab.
Mian
Iftikhar
demands
'decisive
action'
against
terrorist
outfits
in
the
province.
Dawn,
January
2,
2015.
824
persons
killed
and
another
2,339
injured
in
bomb
attacks
across
Pakistan
in
2014,
says
report:
At
least
824
people
were
killed
and
2,339
others
injured
in
372
bomb
attacks,
including
26
suicide
bombings
that
occurred
across
Pakistan
during
2014,
according
to
official
statistics.
According
to
the
data,
the
suicide
attacks
killed
249
people
and
left
582
wounded
in
different
areas
of
the
country
last
year.
In
2014,
the
number
of
suicide
attacks
dropped
by
34
percent
from
the
year
of
2013
when
39
suicide
blasts
took
place.
Daily
Times,
January
2,
2015.
600
NGOs
licences
being
confirmed
to
curb
terror
funding:
In
order
to
implement
the
National
Action
Plan
to
root
out
the
menace
of
terrorism,
the
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission
of
Pakistan
(SECP)
has
decided
to
re-validate
the
licences
of
hundreds
of
Non-Governmental
Organizations
(NGOs)
to
curb
terrorist
financing.
"Yes,
the
SECP
has
decided
to
confirm
the
licences
of
over
600
NGOs
registered
under
Section
42
of
Companies
Ordinance
1984,"
official
sources
in
the
Ministry
of
Finance
confirmed
to
The
News.
The
News,
January
1,
2015.
2,841
terrorists,
327
security
officials
and
882
civilians
killed
in
2014:
The
year
2014
remained
deadly
for
Pakistan
with
over
4070
casualties
in
terrorism
related
activities
including
killings
of
2851
terrorists,
327
security
personnel
and
892
civilians
as
compared
to
the
year
2013
which
had
seen
3268
deaths
including
1448
civilians,
360
security
officials
and
1460
terrorists.
Hence,
the
year
also
remained
worst
for
the
terrorists
as
a
total
2841
terrorist
were
killed
while
in
the
year
2013
as
many
as
1460
terrorists
were
killed.
According
to
the
data
compiled
with
the
help
from
the
South
Asia
Terrorism
Portal
(SATP)
and
Institute
for
Conflict
Management
(ICM),
in
addition
to
over
4070
killings
as
many
as
2114
others
were
injured
in
terrorism
incidences.
Daily
Times,
January
1,
2015.
Pakistan
most
dangerous
country
for
journalists
in
2014,
says
International
Federation
of
Journalists
report:
Pakistan
has
been
the
most
dangerous
country
for
journalists
in
the
world,
with
14
journalists
killed
in
2014,
International
Federation
of
Journalists
report
said.
Syria
was
second
on
the
list
with
12
journalists
killed
throughout
the
year.
Overall,
the
number
of
journalists
who
died
in
targeted
killings,
bomb
attacks
or
shootings
around
the
world
rose
to
118
in
2014
from
105
the
year
before,
the
press
group
said.
Nine
killings
each
occurred
in
Afghanistan
and
the
Palestinian
territories,
the
federation
said.
Tribune,
January
1,
2015.
1,265
enforced
disappearances
cases
still
pending,
says
report:
As
many
as
1,265
cases
of
missing
persons
are
still
pending
with
the
Commission
of
Inquiry
on
Enforced
Disappearance
(CIED)
as
of
December
31,
2014,
says
a
report
available
with
The
Express
Tribune.
The
commission
-
while
submitting
summary
report
on
cases
of
alleged
enforced
disappearances
to
Interior
Ministry
and
12
other
departments
-
has
said
it
has
disposed
of
1,098
missing
persons'
cases
from
March
2011
to
December
2014.
Tribune,
January
1,
2015.
Government
Committee
finds
LEAs
'incapable'
of
blocking
terror
funding
channels:
A
Government
committee
on
December
30
observed
that
the
law
enforcing
personnel
lacked
proper
training
and
knowledge
to
track
and
investigate
terrorist
financing
channels.
Finance
Minister
Ishaq
Dar
stressed
the
need
for
improving
coordination
between
the
Federal
and
Provincial
Governments
and
law
enforcing
agencies
to
deal
with
the
problem
of
terrorist
financing.
Dar
chaired
a
meeting
of
the
sub-committee
formed
by
Prime
Minister
Nawaz
Sharif
to
recommend
ways
and
means
to
choke
finances
for
terrorists
and
terrorist
organisations.
Daily
Times,
December
31,
2014.
Afghan
Taliban
leader
Mullah
Omar
hiding
in
Karachi,
says
Afghanistan
Intelligence
Chief
Rahmatullah
Nabil:
Afghan
Taliban
leader
Mullah
Muhammad
Omar
is
alive
and
hiding
in
Karachi,
said
acting
Afghanistan
intelligence
chief
Rahmatullah
Nabil
on
December
29.
"There
is
a
lot
of
doubt
whether
he
is
alive
or
not.
But
we
are
more
confident
that
he
is
in
Karachi,"
Nabil
was
quoted
as
saying
in
The
New
York
Times
(NYT)
regarding
Omar's
whereabouts.
An
unnamed
European
official
said
in
the
NYT
report
that
there
is
a
"consensus
among
all
three
branches
of
the
Afghan
Security
Forces
that
Mullah
Omar
is
alive".
Times
of
India,
December
30,
2014.
'Pakistan
Army
fooled
youth
for
blood
game
in
Kashmir
and
Afghanistan',
claims
TTP
senior
'commander'
Adnan
Rashid
in
a
video
message:
The
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP)
released
a
new
video
accusing
the
Pakistani
Army
of
attacking
the
'Mujahideen'
(holy
warrior)
even
after
using
them
for
"blood
game"
and
"proxy
war"
in
Jammu
and
Kashmir
in
the
name
of
"so-called
freedom"
and
in
Afghanistan.
The
video
purportedly
of
its
senior
'commander'
Adnan
Rashid,
calls
upon
the
soldiers
of
Pakistani
Army
to
join
the
TTP
listing
the
atrocities
committed
by
force
including
"killing
of
millions"
and
"raping
of
own
sisters"
during
the
Bangladesh
Liberation
War
in
1971.
Economic
Times,
December
29,
2014.
Islamic
State
sends
out
book
in
Urdu
to
journalists
in
Pakistan,
claim
media
reports:
The
Islamic
State
of
Iraq
and
Syria
(ISIS/
also
known
as
Islamic
State-IS
or
Daish
has
sent
out
a
book
in
Urdu
language
through
emails
to
Pakistanis,
especially
journalists.
The
book
in
the
PDF
format
is
the
first
of
its
kind
of
literature
in
Urdu
which
in
detail
sheds
light
on
the
ISIS,
its
history,
motives
behind
formation
and
its
policy."I'm
not
aware
of
any
such
effort
or
practice
through
which
ISIS
propaganda
literature,
translated
into
Urdu-language
being
distributed
or
delivered
in
Pakistan,"
Director
of
the
Federal
Investigation
Agency
(FIA)
Shahid
Hayat
Khan
said.
Economic
Times,
December
29,
2014.
SRI
LANKA
Over
14,000
skilled
personnel
added
to
SFs
since
end
of
war
in
2009
to
carry
out
post-war
infrastructure
development
projects,
says
Ministry
of
Defense
spokesperson:
Ministry
of
Defense
spokesperson
Brigadier
Ruwan
Wanigasooriya
on
December
31
said
that
over
14,000
skilled
personnel
have
been
added
to
Security
Forces
(SFs)
since
the
end
of
the
war
in
2009
to
carry
out
the
post-war
infrastructure
development
projects.
The
spokesperson
said
that
the
Army
has
recruited
over
10,000
skilled
personnel
who
are
not
entitled
for
uniforms
for
their
day-to-day
duties
and
over
11,000
civil
staff
members
have
also
been
enrolled
for
these
development
duties.
Colombo
Page,
January
3,
2015.
.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
|
|
|