SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 13, September 29, 2014

AFGHANISTAN

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Qualified Optimism
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

After days of negotiation between the two Presidential candidates, former Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and former Finance Minister Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, an agreement for the formation of a National Unity Government was signed on September 21, 2014, in the presence of incumbent President Hamid Karzai, Cabinet members and other high level Government officials. The resolution of the protracted faceoff following allegations of massive electoral rigging, was facilitated by the United States (US). The agreement included provisions for the sharing of power, the role of the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and the release of final vote results. Later, on September 26, 2014, Ahmad Yousuf Nuristani Chairman of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced that Ashraf Ghani had secured 55.27 per cent of the total vote during the run-off Presidential Election, i.e., 3,935,567 votes out of 7,120,585 valid votes. Meanwhile, as per the agreement, Ashraf Ghani was declared President and Abdullah, the runner-up, was pronounced CEO in the new Government.

Afghanistan had been in political paralysis since the June 14, 2014, run-off election to choose the successor to President Hamid Karzai, after the first round of the Presidential Elections, held on April 5, 2014, failed to throw up a clear winner. Remarkably, Abdullah, secured 45 per cent of the total votes, followed by Ashraf Ghani, with 31.56 per cent, in the first round of the Presidential Elections. Meanwhile, the preliminary results of the run-off election on July 7, 2014, showed that Ashraf Ghani had cornered 56.44 per cent votes in a direct faceoff with Abdullah, who got just 43.56 per cent. Unsurprisingly, the preliminary elections sparked allegations of fraud provoking a dispute that threatened to push the country into a phase of protracted political instability. On July 8, Abdullah vowed to reject the preliminary result, alleging he was the victim of "industrial-scale" ballot-box stuffing, and declared himself the winner. He also swore to a crowd of thousands in Kabul that he would put his life on the line to stop a "fake Government" taking power and hinted that he could consider forming a “parallel Government”.

In the previous Presidential Elections held on August 20, 2009, which were characterized by a lack of security, low voter turnout and low awareness of the people about the election and election process, as well as widespread ballot stuffing, intimidation, and other electoral fraud, out of a total of 4,597,727 valid votes, the incumbent Hamid Karzai secured 2,283,907 (49.67 percent), while his main rival Dr. Abdullah Abdullah finished second with 1,406,242 vote (30.59 percent). Then, the run-off vote scheduled for November 7, 2009, was cancelled as Abdullah dropped out of the race because he was convinced that the election would continue to be marred by fraud.

Meanwhile, disturbed by developments that could plunge Afghanistan into deeper crisis, US Secretary of State John Kerry, rushed to Kabul at the height of the political squabble and announced, on July 12, 2014, "Both candidates have committed to participate in and stand by the results of the largest most possible audit. Every single ballot that was cast will be audited." Meanwhile, on July 17, 2014, the Afghan Election Commission begun the audit of 7.9 million votes cast in the June 14 run-off. Later, on August 27, 2014, Abdullah boycotted the audit process, describing it as illegitimate, and arguing that it failed to uncover hundreds of thousands of fraudulent ballots. Further, during a news conference at his residence in Kabul on September 8, 2014, Abdullah rejected the results of a United Nations (UN)-led vote audit of 8,109,493 run-off ballots, stating, “We were the winner of the elections; we are the winner of elections based on the real and clean votes of the people. The audit process failed to explain an extra one million votes cast in the second round of elections. The future of a stable Afghanistan could not be based on the foundation of fraud or fraudulent Government. We do not accept fraudulent election results, and we will not accept a fraudulent Government for a day."  

Indeed, confirming the huge scale of the fraud in the first round, Nader Mohseni, spokesman of the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC), which the Afghanistan Electoral Law authorizes to handle frauds, objections and complaints in Elections, had told reporters on April 28, 2014, at Kabul, that IECC received 71 complaints against preliminary results of the April 5 Presidential Elections mostly from Herat, Kabul, Ghazni, Paktia and Balkh Provinces. Likewise, Ahmad Yousuf Nouristani, Chairman of the IEC, told reporters in Kabul on July 7, 2014, "We cannot deny fraud and violations in the process. In some cases some Security Forces (SFs) were involved, in other cases senior Government officials like the Governors or lower-level officials were involved. The preliminary result in no way means the announcement of the winner of the election. After addressing all the complaints, the objections and the inspections, a change in the result is possible."

Eventually, however, a compromise prevailed. The formation of the National Unity Government augurs well for the country that was teetering on the brink of chaos. Expressing concerns regarding the negative financial impact of the protracted political crisis, Finance Minister Hazrat Omar Zakhilwal noted, on August 25, 2014, “Afghanistan has suffered over $5 billion financial loss due to political impasse as a result of election deadlock and also resulted in capital flight from the country which amounts to almost $6 billion.” Earlier, the Business Tendency Survey Report, released by the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Industries (ACCI) in July 2014, based on interviews conducted with managers from 541 Afghan firms, covering the manufacturing, services, trade, and construction sectors across the Kabul, Balkh, Kandahar, Nangarhar, and Herat regions, pointed to a clear worsening of the situation: business conditions had deteriorated rapidly, orders were contracting, firms were closing shop, and layoffs were becoming more widespread. The rising economic crisis in the war ravaged country, threatened by the deepening crisis of the pullout of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Forces, could only worsen the prevailing difficulties of economic and political reconstruction.

Afghanistan's security scenario continues to be worrisome. According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), Afghanistan has recorded at least 4,752 fatalities, including 457 civilians, 426 Security Force (SF) personnel, 3,869 terrorists, just since the first round of Presidential Elections held on April 5, 2014, (data till September 28, 2014). During the comparable period [five months and 23 days], preceding the Presidential Elections, the number of fatalities was 1,253, including of 320 civilians, 180 SF personnel and 753 terrorists. Similarly, other parameters of violence, such as number of major incidents and suicide attacks, also increased sharply. There were 137 major incidents and 29 suicide attacks between April 5 and September 28, 2014, in comparison to 90 major incidents and 22 suicide attacks recorded during the preceding comparable period. Clearly, the country has suffered significantly due to the political squabble.      

Nevertheless, despite all predictions of impending doom and collapse, genuine grounds for qualified optimism persist. In a joint statement sent to the NATO summit in Wales (United Kingdom) on September 5, 2014, the two Afghan Presidential candidates declared, “We are fully committed to signing the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US and Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) agreements to honor the decision of the representatives of the people of Afghanistan in order to continue this partnership with our allies.” On September 4, 2014, NATO had issued the Wales Summit Declaration on Afghanistan, reaffirming the commitment to fulfill all three core tasks set out in the organisation's Strategic Concept: collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security.

Despite the extended period of acrimony, the eventual agreement between the two Presidential candidates is a positive step towards improving stability and security in the country. The challenges that confront Afghanistan, nevertheless, remain gargantuan. Chief among these is, of course, the Taliban backed by Pakistan's relentlessly malefic state; the problem is infinitely compounded by a glut of arms in the hands of local and irresponsible non-state actors, corruption, the interference of regional extremist groups in Afghan affairs, and serious economic vulnerabilities that can only grow with diminishing international support. Moreover, the Cabinet to be appointed by President Ghani and CEO Abdullah will have mountains to climb in the coming months, starting with winning the approval of Parliament. With all their controversies and tensions, the elections are but a tentative step forward on a long and troubled journey for Afghanistan.

INDIA

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Maoists: Cracks at the base?
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

A wave of surrenders by Maoist cadres over the past three months, particularly in the Bastar Division of Chhattisgarh, long considered the nerve centre of the Maoist movement, suggest a dramatic weakening of the rebel formations in their heartland areas. In just 90 days, over 140 Maoist surrenders have been recorded in Chhattisgarh alone. This appears to confirm trends that have been visible over the past year, and that were acknowledged by the Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI-Maoist) 4th CC Meet, held sometime in April-May 2013, that the condition of its countrywide movement was "critical".

Nevertheless, there had been some intervening developments that suggested that the insurgents' operational capabilities had not been significantly dented, especially in Chhattisgarh. The surrender of senior Maoist leader G.V.K. Prasad Rao aka Gudsa Usendi earlier this year (January 8, 2014) in Andhra Pradesh, a major breakthrough for the Security Forces (SFs), was not immediately followed by any significant number of surrenders in Chhattisgarh. Gudsa Usendi was the CPI-Maoist spokesperson and a member of the Dandakarnya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC), and a flush of surrenders was expected to follow his capitulation. Instead, what followed was a number of deadly attacks on SFs, most prominently including the March 11 ambush in which 15 SF personnel and one civilian were killed in the Sukma District of south Chhattisgarh. Significantly, the attack was in an open field, unlike the typically ‘hill-on-one-side-and-ditch-on-the-other’ locations that the Maoists normally choose for their engagements with the SFs. This was followed by two attacks within an hour on April 12, in which 14 persons, including seven polling officials and five CRPF personnel were killed. In the first incident, a bus carrying a polling party was blown up and subsequently fired upon in Bijapur killing seven polling officials and injuring five others. Within an hour, the Maoists struck again, with an IED that blew up an ambulance, killing five CRPF personnel, a medical attendant and the driver on the spot in Darbha on the Jagdalpur-Sukma national highway in Bastar District. The IED blast on the highway suggested that the device had been planted at the time of road construction, reinforcing the impression that, as far as Chhattisgarh was concerned, the Maoists were far from being weakened.

That perception has, however, undergone some change since July 2014, with a sudden acceleration in the rate of surrenders. In the most recent among significant cases, on September 26, a Maoist couple from Gadchiroli District in Maharashtra, active in Chhattisgarh, surrendered before the Adilabad District Police in Telangana. Ade Prabhu alias Chandram alias Satish (48) had worked for the CPI-Maoist for 30 years while wife Talandi Kantha (35) had been with the outfit for over 23 years. Prabhu was last the Abujhmadh Area Committee member and Commander of the 'Madh division' in Chhattisgarh, and carried a reward of INR 500,000 on his head. Both are said to have been disillusioned with their party despite their long years with the outfit.

On September 23, another Maoist, Jageshwar Komra (22), who was involved in the May 25 Darbha Valley attack and carried a reward of INR 800,000 on his head, had surrendered in Kanker District, Chhattisgarh.

On August 1, a key Maoist leader, Chambala Ravinder aka Arjun, along with his wife Wetti Adime aka Ranitha, surrendered before Telangana DGP Anurag Sharma. Both had been involved in several incidents in Chhattisgarh and were carrying a reward of INR 2 million and INR 500,000, respectively, on their heads. Ravinder had, reportedly, recently been made 'commander' of the '2^nd Battalion' of the People's Liberation Guerilla Army (PLGA), which is believed to have been resented by some senior Maoist leaders.

Such instances multiplied, and Additional Director General of Police (Anti-Naxal Operations) R.K. Vij confirmed, on September 11, 2014, "As many as 181 [Maoist] cadres have surrendered this year.”

The annual Maoist surrenders in Chhattisgarh over the preceding three years were in the 20s, and official sources confirmed 111 surrenders in 2014 as on August 31. This was the highest number this year among all Maoist-affected States.  Moreover, according to partial data compiled by SATP, as of September 21, 2014, this number had risen to 164 surrendered Maoists in Chhattisgarh. Further, the chiefs and active members of several Maoist front organisations, including the Dandakaranya Adivasi Majdoor Sangathan, Krantikari Adivasi Mahila Sangathan and Chetna Natya Mandli, have also quit the movement since July 2014.

Questions are, however, being raised on the quality/significance of the surrenders. State Congress President Bhupesh Baghel alleged, on September 14, 2014, “Innocent tribals are being forced to surrender by the Police just to win praise from their seniors and the media. Police claimed that two hardcore Maoists, Chaitram Salam and his wife Manjula, surrendered before them but the fact is that Manjula was working as a cook before the so-called surrender.”

Further, media reports claim that, of the over 100 rebels who surrendered in the preceding three months, most were 'sangham' and 'janmilitia' members working in the village areas of Kondagaon and Kanker Districts.

Despite niggling doubts about some of the surrenders, there are reasons to believe that the current spate signals the beginning of a process that is likely to undermine Maoist morale.

A steady loss of leadership over the past years, and progressive demoralization within the organisation are likely among the varied causes of the rising trend in surrenders. Further, many of the surrendered cadres have cited “exploitation and discrimination” of the local Chhattisgarh cadre by the “outsider” Andhra leaders as the reasons for their surrenders. According to several surrendered cadres, in every Maoist operation the senior leaders - mostly from Andhra Pradesh – keep themselves in the back under security cover while pushing local cadres to the front.

The Police and intelligence agencies have also successfully exploited emerging faultlines within the CPI-Maoist. For instance, an unnamed senior Police officer from the Anti-Naxal Operations unit disclosed, “In Rajnandgaon, we deliberately put up banners of Vijay Reddy, a Maoist leader from Andhra Pradesh. It was to give a message to the local cadres about how the people from other States are being given leadership role in the Maoist organisation.”

Further, the hardships of life on the run in the jungles have also tempted many of the Maoists to surrender. The Police claim that substantial increases in reward amounts in Chhattisgarh and their systematic efforts at reaching out to the families of rebels and convincing them of the benefits of the surrender schemes have helped; as have pamphlets, street plays, etc., and other outreach initiatives. Most surrendered Maoists, however, claim that the monetary incentive, though lucrative, had little to do with their decision, which was most often based on increasing disillusionment with the cause or on internal rifts.

Significantly, the last major attack by the Maoists in Chhattisgarh was in April this year. Monthly Maoist related fatalities in the State have been limited to single digits since May. Of course, July and August are always relatively quieter due to the monsoons, but the drop in Maoist operations seems more pronounced in the current year.  

Despite these broad trends, there are widespread apprehensions, both among general observers and senior Police officers that the Maoists are simply lying low and planning 'something big'. This is unsurprising, since the Maoists have survived many vicissitudes and reverses over the long decades of their 'revolution'. Nevertheless, there are significant and quantifiable signs of weakening of the movement in its heartland areas, and these provide natural opportunities to the state and its agencies to consolidate their gains.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)