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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 35, March 3, 2014

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
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Sindh: Year of Horror
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

We were going shopping for our sister’s wedding when my cousin suddenly stopped the car in the alley where our house was located. I saw two men standing at the entrance of the lane and a group of eight to ten people, including young men aged 17-18 years approaching us, loading their guns.... I had never seen this kind of ferocity on the streets in India... my cousin, whose place I was visiting in Karachi, pleaded to me to be quiet and not to get into any argument with them. He referred to them as Balochi gangsters and exclaimed, "These are Balochis and you should not utter a word, just surrender and give whatever you have." They held my two sisters at gunpoint and put a sharp knife on my chest, making it bleed. Each of us gave whatever possessions we had. My cousin lamented, "This is the drudgery of our daily lives here. We live in fear..."
------ Interview to SATP on condition of anonymity

At least 13 Policemen were killed and 58 persons were injured in a suicide blast targeting a bus carrying 50 Police officers near the gate of the Razzakabad Police Training Centre in the Shah Latif Town of Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, on February 13, 2014. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 'spokesman' Shahidullah Shahid claiming responsibility for the attack, declaring, "We carried out the attack against the Police because they are killing our people."

On January 7, 2014, TTP terrorists had killed six people near the Sufi shrine of Ayub Shah Bukhari in Gulshan-e-Maymar area of Gadap Town in Karachi. Two of the victims were beheaded, while the rest had their throats slit. The Police found a bloodstained knife and note, written by the TTP, which read, “Stop visiting shrines — from the Pakistani Taliban. People visiting shrines will meet the same fate.”

On January 2, 2014, three gangsters were shot dead in an ambush by a rival group in the Ilyas Goth area of Liaquatabad Town, Karachi. The deceased were involved in murders, gang wars, abduction-for-ransom, extortion and other criminal activities in Landhi and Malir Towns of Karachi District.

These incidents are only a few of the proliferating manifestations of the violence that flourishes in Sindh, because of an intricate relationship between terrorist outfits, violent political organisations and criminal gangs. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Sindh has already recorded 273 fatalities, including 180 civilians, 46 Security Force (SF) personnel, and 47 terrorists in the first two months of year 2014, and remains the second worst terrorism affected region across Pakistan in terms of fatalities [the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) rank first, with 290 killed, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) is third, with 187 dead]. Sindh, however, continued to hold the dubious distinction of recording the highest number of civilian fatalities, at 180, over this period, followed by 120 in KP, 92 in Balochistan, 20 in Punjab and 20 in FATA.

Terrorist attacks, sectarian and political violence and gang wars were the three indices that made Sindh, which recorded 1,668 fatalities in 2013, second among the most violence-afflicted Provinces in Pakistan [after FATA, which saw 1,716 killed during the year]. Even in 2013, however, Sindh held the first position in terms of civilian fatalities, by far, with 1,285 killed, distantly followed by KP, where 603 civilian fatalities were recorded. 156 SF personnel, and 227 terrorists were killed in the Province in 2013. In 2012, these numbers stood at a total of 1,553 fatalities, including 1,318 civilians, 118 SF personnel and 117 terrorists. Fatalities among SFs and terrorists increased by 32.2 per cent and 94.01 per cent, respectively, between 2012 and 2013. The rise in fatalities in these two categories is primarily due to escalating confrontations between the two sides, as the worsening law and order situation forced the Government to launch limited operations. 

Terrorism related fatalities in Sindh: 2010-2014

Years

Civilians
SFs
Militants
Total

2010

777
61
158
996

2011

1082
61
68
1211

2012

1318
118
117
1553

2013

1285
156
227
1668

2014

180
46
47
273

Total*

4642
442
617
5701
Source: SATP, *Data till March 2, 2014

Though civilians continued to face the brunt of terror through 2013, there was a marginal decline of 2.50 per cent in fatalities in this category, as compared to 2012. According to SATP data, of 1,285 civilians killed in 2013, 151 died in 91 sectarian attacks, as compared to 122 killed in 92 such attacks in 2012. 

Other parameters of violence registered significant increase. Incidents of killing in 2013 increased to 1,215, from 1,105 in 2012. Major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) and resultant fatalities increased to 56 and 282, respectively, as compared to 38 and 149, respectively, in 2012.   Incidents of bomb blast and resultant fatalities in 2013 increased to 122 and 193, respectively, from 77 and 42 in 2012.

Karachi was the worst hit among all 23 Districts of the Province. Of the total of 1,668 killings in Sindh, 1,638 (98.2 per cent) took place in Karachi alone. Of 1,285 civilians killed in the Province in 2013, 1,270 civilian killings (98.83 per cent) occurred in Karachi alone, followed by six in Hyderabad District, three in Kashmore District, two each in Khairpur and Shikarpur Districts, and one each in Jacobabad and Sukkur Districts.

Karachi’s descent into anarchy has been enormously accelerated as a result of the influx of TTP cadres from the country's tribal areas. According to a January 20, 2014, threat report by security agencies, a further influx of TTP operatives into Karachi is likely, to avenge the deployment of military troops in the Waziristan areas of the FATA. The report said that thousands of TTP operatives are already living in Karachi, adding to the numbers of local operatives of various other active and defunct organisations.

Adding to the problem are a wide range of sectarian-terrorist outfits operating in the city. These prominently include Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Sipah-e-Sahaba-Pakistan (SSP), Jandullah, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Sunni Tehreek (ST) and Sipah-e-Muhammad Pakistan (SMP), among many others. Unsurprisingly, barring one fatality in Jacobabad District, all 150 killings in 90 sectarian attacks in Sindh Province occurred in Karachi alone.

Political killings have also become the order of the day. Activists of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP) have been the principal targets. A total of 345 activists of these parties, including 191 of the MQM; 98 of the ANP, and 56 of the PPP, have been killed since 2011. 176 of these, including 124 MQM, 36 ANP and 16 PPP activists were killed in 2013 alone.

Turf wars between two prominent criminal gangs, the Uzair Baloch-led People’s Amn Committee (PAC, People's Peace Committee) and the Ghaffar Zikri-led Lyari gang, and their local wings, continuously exacerbate violence. Despite being banned, these criminal formations continue to operate with the support of their political patrons. The PAC is alleged to be supported by PPP and the Zikri group thrives with the support of the MQM.

A Report by Foreign Policy in September 2013 termed Karachi “the most dangerous megacity” in the world. The Report cited a murder rate of 12.3 per 100,000 residents, “some 25 per cent higher than any other major city”.

The epidemic of violence is worsened by an endemic extortion racket, making the environment extremely volatile for the business community. Predicting 2013 as “a record year for extortion in Karachi”, the chief of the Citizen-Police Liaison Committee (CPLC), Ahmed Chinoy stated, “The extortion racket has blown out of all proportion with the previous year.” According to the figures collected by Chinoy’s committee, there were more than 630 extortion complaints registered in Karachi from January 2013 to mid-June 2013, compared to 589 in the whole of 2012. Most cases were registered by people who had refused to pay. However, the Police claim that the actual number of incidents is many times higher, since the vast majority of extortion demands go unreported, as victims usually decide to pay. Kutchi Rabta Committee (KRC) leader Haji Adam, while speaking of the menace of extortion on July 5, 2013, complained, "The situation of Lyari is worse than that of Waziristan," and added, “miscreants were free to operate in the area.”

Fearing a spill-over into other parts of the Province, Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah, on February 24, 2014, cautioned, “Karachi-like terrorism must not hit other parts of Sindh. Terrorism should not make its way into the interior of Sindh with the intensity witnessed in Karachi.”

Significantly, the Hyderabad and Sukkur Districts had each witnessed one major incident in 2013. On November 26, 2013, in a targeted attack on the Police, unidentified terrorists shot dead four Policemen and injured another three, while the Police unit was on mobile duty in the Latifabad area of Hyderabad District.  A major incident occurred in Sukkur District on July 24, 2013, when suicide bombers and armed militants mounted an attack on the local office of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the high security zone of the Sukkur Barrage Colony in Sukkur town. Eight persons were killed, including four terrorists, three ISI officials and a civilian, and another 50 were injured. It was combined attack by the Mohmand Chapter of TTP and the Punjab Chapter of the Taliban (Punjabi Taliban). An unnamed ‘commander’ of the outfit claimed responsibility for the attack. These attacks, and a range of lesser indicators, suggest the gradual penetration of the TTP in other parts of Sindh, potentially creating a far greater challenge for a state apparatus that has, thus far, not been able to combat the ongoing groundswell of terrorist, sectarian and criminal violence in Karachi, the core area of militant activities, despite the tall claims of “successful operations.”

The crisis in Karachi - indeed, the crisis in Pakistan - is that the state, its agencies, and the political forces that control these, are unwilling to relinquish extremist Islam and terrorism as instruments of policy and of domestic political management. Whatever limited action that has been taken against particular terrorist or organised criminal gangs has been fitful, selective and, in most cases, half-hearted. In the meanwhile, armed extremist formations have consolidated their own independent bases of power, even as the regime of collusion with elements within the establishment continues. Under the circumstances, the challenge in Karachi - and potentially across wider areas in Sindh - can only become more intractable with the passage of time.

INDIA
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Nagaland: Fresh Challenges
Veronica Khangchian
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On February 27, 2014, at a meeting sponsored by the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR) in Dimapur, 31 Naga organisations extended their full support to the Naga reconciliation process and urged the FNR to continue strengthening and pursing the task of Reconciliation at a time of deep crisis. The Naga bodies also implored all Naga tribe and civil society organizations to consciously work towards reconciliation in the spirit of forgiveness, towards a shared future: “Recognizing that reconciliation is a continuous process, we urge all Naga political groups to join Naga reconciliation and to unitedly pursue the Naga political and historical rights for the common good of all.” FNR was formed in May 2008.

On October 8, 2013, amidst increasing factional killings and other forms of violence in Naga areas, FNR had observed that, if the reconciliation process was to continue with credibility, the Naga militant organizations would have to immediately stop violence perpetrated in any form. The FNR had then urged the leaders of the Naga underground groups to demonstrate their statesmanship by putting aside factional politics and work for the common Naga cause of justice and peace. It is useful to recall, here, that on March 23, 2013, Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), NSCN-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-KK) and Naga National Council/Federal Government of Nagaland (NNC/FGN) functionaries had held another round of meetings on reconciliation at Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Even as the efforts for reconciliation amongst the Nagas continued, fresh challenges have emerged, besides the well known factional clashes between Naga rebel groups. When Rengma Nagas and the Karbis clashed in Assam in December 2013, the effect was felt in Nagaland. On December 27, 2013, at least four persons, the village headman and three women, all belonging to Rengma Naga community, were shot dead by Karbi People's Liberation Tiger (KPLT) militants in Khowanigaon, under the Borpathar Police Station in the Karbi Anglong District of Assam. Sources indicated that KPLT militants had issued an ultimatum to Rengma Nagas to leave the District by December 25. On the same day [December 27], a Naga militant outfit, Rengma Naga Hills Protection Force (RNHPF), had retaliated and launched a counter–attack on the KPLT militants, killing two of them. Further on December 29, 2013 Security Forces recovered the bullet-riddled, decomposed bodies of two aged women, suspected to have been killed by KPLT cadres, at Rengma Mouza, Bokajan in Karbi Anglong District.

There was a standoff between the NSCN-IM and the Sumi Nagas following an incident in December 2013. The tension started when four armed NSCN-IM cadres allegedly molested two Sumi women and assaulted two men travelling to Zunheboto at Aghuyito village near Zunheboto District on December 21, 2013. The incident triggered mass resentment among the Sumi community, triggering a massive rally on December 22, where it was resolved that the errant NSCN-IM cadres should be handed over to the District administration within three days, failing which a call for non-cooperation with NSCN-IM would be initiated. When the Sumi Hoho (the apex organisation of the Sumi community) asked the outfit to hand over its cadres, it refused.

On December 28, hundreds of Sumis, angered by the December 21 incident, marched towards the NSCN-IM’s designated camp at Mukalimi village under Pughoboto Subdivision in Zunheboto District, where they were fired on, allegedly by NSCN-IM cadres, leading to the death of two persons and injuries to six others. On January 2, 2014, the Sumi Hoho in Nagaland declared December 28 as "Martyrs' Day" to honour the two Sumi volunteers who died during the three-day siege of the NSCN-IM's camp at Mukalimi in Zunheboto District. The NSCN-IM vacated the Mukalima camp On December 30, after much persuasion by the Centre and State Government. An NSCN-IM source claimed that the cadres vacated the camp on their own, but sources disclose that they did so only after much discussion with the Government. A Sumi general public meeting held under the aegis of the Sumi Hoho at Zunheboto on January 7, 2014, further resolved that the NSCN-IM would not be permitted to establish its designated camps within Sumi-inhabited areas and thereby decided to sever all ties with NSCN-IM.

The beginning of 2014 has brought no relief. In the night of January 3, 2014, highly decomposed bodies of nine persons, blindfolded, their hands tied and shot from close range, were recovered from a gorge in the Pachaspura area, Chumekedima, in Dimapur District in Nagaland. On January 6, Nagaland Police disclosed that all the nine dead bodies were ethnic Karbis from the Karbi Anglong District of Assam, and included a missing Karbi Students Association (KSA) leader, Harlongbi Engti. The incident was purportedly in retaliation against the killing of Rengma Nagas in Assam in December 2013. The RNHPF claimed responsibility for the Dimapur killings. There were also reports that the RNHPF was floated under the patronage of the NSCN-IM for protection of the Rengma Naga people living in Karbi Anglong. On January 4, 2014, the Nagaland Government constituted a three-member High Power Enquiry Committee (HPEC) to probe the recovery of the nine bodies. The Nagaland Home Department asserted that the HPEC had been constituted alongside the Police investigation by a Special Investigation Team (SIT), which had alleged that another seven NSCN-IM cadres were behind the Dimapur killings. Cease Fire Monitoring Group (CFMG) Chairman Lt. Gen (Retd.) N.K Singh also stated that the involvement of NSCN-IM had come to light with the arrest of three alleged accused in this incident. The arrest date was unspecified.

A January 6, 2014, report indicated that over 3,000 people from the Karbi and Rengma Naga tribes had been taking shelter in relief camps in the Bokajan area of the Karbi Anglong District since December 27, 2013, due to violent clashes between the KPLT and the RNHPF. Karbi Anglong Superintendent of Police Mugdhajyoti Mahanta disclosed that, as on January 6, 2014, 3,131 people were taking shelter in nine relief camps. Of them, 1,683 were Rengma Nagas and 1,448 were Karbis. On February 1, 2013, the Rengma Naga organisations in Karbi Anglong District reiterated their demand for the creation of a Rengma Hills Autonomous District Council (RHADC) , with its headquarters at Bokajan, through the separation of the Rengma Hills from Karbi Anglong, on the basis of the original boundary of the Hills and Rengma Mouzas (an earlier nomenclature for a revenue collection unit). Later on February 4, the RNHPF declared that peace could return to Karbi Anglong District only if the Rengma Nagas were given constitutional protection or a political identity separate from the Karbis.

Despite these fresh challenges, fatalities in Nagaland dropped dramatically from 61 [six civilians and 55 militants] in 2012 to just 32 [11 civilians and 21 militants] in 2013, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). Internecine clashes within the State also declined from 43 incidents in 2012, resulting in 53 persons killed and 23 injured, to 18 incidents in 2013, resulting in 12 killed and 11 injured. 2012 had witnessed intense factional killing between NSCN-K and NSCN-KK, which visibly slowed down in 2013. In one major factional clash during the year, three NSCN-K cadres were killed and one was injured by NSCN-KK cadres at Sikiu 'A', under the Shamator Sub-division, Tuensang District.

Factional killings amongst the Nagas had spiked after the formation of NSCN-KK on June 7, 2011, and the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), a Manipur based outfit, on February 25, 2011. Outside Nagaland, SATP recorded seven incidents of fratricidal clashes [resulting in nine killed and two injured] between Naga militant groups in 2013, as against such 13 incidents [resulting in 27 killed and 10 injured] in 2012. Fatalities in Nagaland registered an upward trend, till they peaked at 145 in 2008, but fell drastically in 2009 and 2010. The dramatic drop in fatalities in 2009 and 2010 came in the aftermath of the signing of the Covenant of Reconciliation in mid-2009. However, this emerging trend was dramatically reversed after the emergence of ZUF and NSCN-KK in 2011.

Insurgency related killings: 2005-2014

Years

Civilians
SFs
Militants
Total

2005

9
0
31
40

2006

10
1
81
92

2007

20
0
88
108

2008

42
2
101
145

2009

7
0
11
18

2010

0
0
3
3

2011

7
0
8
15

2012

6
0
55
61

2013

11
0
21
32

2014

10
0
1
11

Total*

122
3
400
525
Source: SATP, *Data till March 2, 2014

Arms smuggling remains an issue in Nagaland, with at least 25 arms dealers arrested in 11 incidents through 2013. The arrestees included at least three NNC and two NSCN-IM cadres. On November 12, 2013, seven arms smugglers, including two NSCN-IM cadres, were arrested by the Assam Rifles in Dimapur District, and a huge cache of arms was seized from them.

In a significant breakthrough, on August 30, 2013, the NSCN-IM arms supplier, identified as Wuthikorn Naruenartwanich alias Willy Narue, was arrested by Bangkok Police while arranging for the supply of Chinese arms to the NSCN-IM. Naruenartwanich has been accused of buying nearly 1,000 assault rifles and an unspecified number of rocket-propelled grenades to be sold to the outfit. Naruenartwanich, a Thai national, was reportedly picked up at India's request. On September 22, the Thai gunrunner revealed "key information" about the supply chain for smuggling arms from China to the Northeast through Bangladesh. An official source disclosed that preliminary questioning of the accused by Thai authorities had revealed that Naruenartwanich, along with NSCN-IM , had hatched a plan to send a huge consignment of arms and ammunition from China to the Northeast. The official stated, "Willy had told Thai Police that the arms consignment was to start from Beihei port in South China Sea near Vietnam to Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh. On the high seas, the consignment was to be shifted to small fishing trawlers to reach Bangladesh, and then to the Northeast."

Naruenartwanich was reportedly the main interlocutor of Anthony Shimray, the chief arms procurer of NSCN-IM, who was arrested from Patna (Bihar) in October 2010. He had brokered a USD 2 million deal involving supply of some 1,000 firearms, including 600 AK-47s and ammunition, with Chinese arms dealers. The deal, according to the National Investigation Agency (NIA) chargesheet, was renegotiated to USD 1 million. The Chinese arms dealer is one of the four accused charge-sheeted by the NIA following Shimray’s arrest.

Further, the SATP database recorded the arrest of 146 militants in 2013, in 69 incidents. These included 26 NSCN-IM, 23 NSCN-K, 22 NSCN-KK and 11 of the IK Songbijit faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS). 93 militants were arrested in 2012.

SATP also recorded 10 incidents of abduction, in which 12 persons were abducted, as against three such incidents in 2012. In the worst such incident in 2013, two bodies, suspected to be that of a driver and a cleaner, were recovered from Sakhaba village in Kohima District on February 3, 2013. Suspected NSCN-K militants had abducted drivers and cleaners of four trucks from Manipur, near Kohima, on the grounds that the truck owners had not heeded their extortion demands. A 'tax' of INR two million each had been demanded from the owners.

Eight incidents of explosion were recorded in 2013. Two civilians were killed in two of these incidents. 2012 recorded only two incidents of explosion, injuring two persons.

Nine incidents of extortion were reported in 2013, as against 11 such incidents in 2012 [the incidence is likely to have been much higher, as most victims comply without reporting the demands to the Police].

2013 also saw the formation of the Action Committee Against Unabated Taxation (ACAUT) in Dimapur. The ACAUT was formed by several organizations under the aegis of Naga Council in May 2013, in an effort to check the rampant imposition of ‘illegal tax‘on the people, especially the business community, by various organizations, particularly including Naga underground outfits. On October 31, 2013, several thousand persons from all sections of society showed up to express support and solidarity with the campaign spearheaded by ACAUT. After the rally, however, NSCN-declared that ACAUT had no authority to 'dictate the people'. Earlier, on June 8, 2013, during a meeting with ACAUT, NSCN-IM leaders had asserted that, as a people-mandated revolutionary group, they had the 'right to tax' people.

Interestingly, a November 11, 2013, report observed that NSCN-IM had officially revealed, for the first time, that it had hundreds of members and several offices in foreign countries. Reiterating its stand on 'taxation', the group had asserted that it had to collect 'tax' from the Naga-inhabited areas of Nagaland, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Myanmar, to support its members in foreign countries. The outfit also warned ACAUT, claiming that the organization was hand-in-glove with NSCN-IM's adversaries, and sought to undermine Naga nationalism, which would never be tolerated.

NSCN-IM continues to maintain a base in Bangladesh from where arms are supplied to the outfit's camps in the region. According to a November 11, 2012, report, NSCN-IM had four camps out of the 51 still in existence of Northeast militant groups still present in Bangladesh. It also has offices in the United States, Germany, Netherlands, China, Thailand, Japan, the Philippines and the United Kingdom. According to intelligence sources, the outfit spends thousands of dollars to maintain its network abroad. According to intelligence sources, the outfit's annual budget has increased manifold as a result of heavy recruitment and procurement of arms from foreign countries, to over INR 1 billion per year. There are an estimated 25,000 NSCN-IM cadres, each receiving a salary ranging between INR 2,000 and INR 15,000, according to 'rank'.

Meanwhile, talks between the Government of India (GoI) and the NSCN-IM have been going on without any concrete progress. The negotiation process faced a further setback with the Centre's interlocutor, R.S. Pandey resigning on December 16, 2013, after announcing that he would be contesting the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. A top official of the Union Home Ministry, on February 14, 2014, disclosed that the Government would announce the name of the new interlocutor after the Parliament session.

On January 26, 2014, Nagaland Governor Nikhil Kumar expressed his regret on the failure to settle the Naga political issue before the State Assembly elections. Addressing the Republic Day (January 26) celebration in the State capital, Kohima, Kumar appealed to all sections of the Nagas to continue working for a peaceful settlement. On October 10, 2012, Union Minister of Home Affairs, Sushil Kumar Shinde, had reportedly hinted that a ‘solution’ to the ‘Naga issue’ was likely before March 2013, when Assembly polls in Nagaland were due.

Meanwhile, the ceasefire between GoI and NSCN-K was extended for a year on April 22, 2013. On April 26, 2013, the ceasefire agreement between GoI and NSCN-KK was also reviewed and extended for a year, with effect from April 28, 2013.

2013 also saw a renewed agitation for the creation of a separate State by the "Eastern Nagaland People's Organisation” (ENPO) following the decision of the Congress working committee to carve out the Telengana State from Andhra Pradesh. In a symbolic move to intensify the demand for separate statehood – ‘Frontier Nagaland’ – the six tribes of Eastern Nagaland, under the aegis of ENPO, observed a “Black Day” on August 15, 2013. ENPO took the decision as “a practical message” to the GoI, to demand the 'immediate declaration' of Statehood with a special status within the Indian Constitution, based on the distinctive and different historical and geo-political background of Eastern Nagaland - comprising the four Districts of Mon, Tuensang, Kiphire and Longleng. The demand has already been turned down by both the Centre and the State Government. The demand was first raised in the year 2010.  ENPO has also rejected the State Government’s offer of an autonomous council, regional council and economic package, in lieu of ‘Frontier Nagaland’.

The promise of a 'solution' to the vexed 'Naga issue' has long been belied, and though the peace process has stemmed the force of India's longest insurgency, it is yet to give a real peace to the people of the State. The uncertainty, the jockeying for power, the regimes of illegal 'taxation' and intimidation, the continuing sway of armed non-state groups, and the exacerbating inter-tribal tensions, keep the situation at a constant simmer, boiling over into violence from time to time. Unless a settlement of the issue is achieved, and one that is perceived as just by all affected parties, it is unlikely that things will change dramatically in Nagaland.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
February 24 - March 2, 2014

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

0
0
1
1

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
7
7

Meghalaya

0
0
1
1

Left-wing Extremism

 

Andhra Pradesh

1
0
0
1

Chhattisgarh

0
5
0
5

Jharkhand

2
0
2
4

Odisha

0
0
1
1

Total (INDIA)

3
5
11
19

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

4
3
10
17

FATA

1
12
42
55

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

0
2
0
2

Sindh

23
0
0
23

Total (PAKISTAN)

28
17
52
97
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

JeM 'chief' to send suicide bombers to political rallies in India, alerted IB: Intelligence Bureau (IB) reports have informed that the militant outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) led by Maulana Masood Azhar is planning a series of suicide attacks on political rallies in India when the Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament) campaign gathers steam. According to intelligence reports, Azhar speaking at a rally in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir's (PoK) Muzaffarabad said, "There are 313 fidayeen in this gathering and if a call is made, the number will go up to 3, 000." Truth Drive, February 25, 2014.

IB warns Andhra Pradesh of terror attacks by LeT and IM, says report: The Intelligence Bureau (IB) alerted Andhra Pradesh about possible terror strikes by Indian Mujahideen (IM) and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), during the 2014 election campaign. Following the confessions of arrested IM Indian operations 'chief' Yasin Bhatkal and his aide Asadullah Akhtar that several terror modules of the IM are operating in the country and inputs that LeT is planning attacks, the security agencies are on alert. Deccan Chronicle, February 28, 2014.

IM harbored plans to create new hideouts in Tibet, Nepal and Azerbaijan, says report: Indian Mujahideen (IM) harboured plans to create new hideouts in Tibet, Nepal and Azerbaijan. It also planned to free its operatives lodged in various by ramming bulldozers to bring down jail walls. The 277-page National Investigation Agency (NIA) chargesheet filed against Yasin Bhatkal says: "Yasin informed Riyaz [Riyaz Bhatkal] that he had learnt to operate bulldozer. It drinks 200 litres per day, but can be used to break wall of the jail." Times of India, March 1, 2014.

60 militant groups operating in Manipur, says Governor: Manipur Governor V. K. Duggaltold State Legislative Assembly, on February 24, that Manipur has been affected by insurgent activities spread over a period of over four decades where more than 60 militant outfits, including factions, are operating. Shillong Times, February 24, 2014.

Terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir and North-East and Naxalites in central India indulging in gross violation of human rights, says US State Department report: The United State (US) state Department said in its Congressional mandated annual report on human rights 2013 that the terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and North-East and Naxalites [left Wing Extremists] groups in central India are indulging in gross violation of human rights. "Separatist insurgents and terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir, the Northeastern states, and the Naxalite belt committed numerous serious abuses, including killings of elected political leaders, armed forces personnel, police, government officials, and civilians," said the report which was released by US Secretary of State John Kerry. Business Standard, February 28, 2014.

Tripura militants abduct 72 persons in last three years: Chief Minister (CM) Manik Sarkar on February 24 said that altogether 72 persons were abducted and three others were killed during the past three years in insurgency related incidents. Sarkar said the insurgency was on the wane as none was killed by the militants in 2013 and 10 persons were abducted during the time, but all of them had returned. In the last three years 92 insurgents of different underground groups have surrendered, he said. Shilong Times, February 25, 2014.

Incidents of CPI-Maoist violence has come down, says Union Minister of Home Affairs Sushilkumar Shinde: The Union Minister of Home Affairs (UMHA) Sushilkumar Shinde on February 26 said incidents of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) perpetrated violence have come down in the country in the past one to two years. He said the documents circulated by the CPI-Maoist were proof of the decrease in their activities. Zee News, February 27, 2014.


NEPAL

Prime Minister Sushil Koirala assures a new constitution within a year: Prime Minister Sushil Koirala on February 28 assured that the country will have its new constitution within a year. Koirala said that the Government's main priority is to draft and promulgate the new constitution within a year. Nepal News, March 1, 2014.


PAKISTAN

42 militants and 12 SFs among 55 persons killed during the week in FATA: In response to the militant attack on a polio team in the Lashora area of Jamrud tehsil (revenue unit) in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) which left at least 13 persons dead on February 1, Security Forces (SFs) launched a assault on February 2-morning on militant hideouts in parts of Bara tehsil and killed five militants.

At least three militants were killed and three others were injured in an exchange of fire between SFs and militants in Shalobar area of Khyber Agency on February 27.

Pakistani fighter jets and gunship helicopters bombarded hideouts of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in the North and South Waziristan Agencies on February 25 killing at least 30 militants.

Asmatullah Shaheen Bhittani, a senior 'commander' of TTP and supporter of peace talks with the Government, was killed along with his three accomplices on February 24 in Darga Mandi village near Miranshah in North Waziristan Agency. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia; The Nation; Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer, February 25-March 3, 2014.

TTP announce one-month 'unconditional' ceasefire in 'national interest', says TTP 'central spokesman' Shahidullah Shahid: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on March 1 announced a month-long 'unconditional' ceasefire in 'national interest'. "Following a positive response from the Government, an appeal from religious scholars, in honour of the representative committee and in the greater interest of Islam and Pakistan, we have decided not to carry out any activities for one month," TTP 'central spokesman' Shahidullah Shahid said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government on March 2 announced to suspend airstrikes in the tribal areas that have left more than 100 terrorists dead so far. "After the positive announcement yesterday [March 1] by the TTP, the Government has decided to halt the air strikes which were continuing for the past few days," Nisar Ali Khan said in a statement. However, he warned, "Government and the Army reserve the right to effectively respond to any act of violence." Daily Times, March 1-2, 2014.

TTP's popularity is on the rise in Pakistan, claims TTP 'spokesman' Shahidullah Shahid: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on February 26 claimed that its popularity is on the rise in Pakistan. "An ever increasing number of Pakistanis are joining hands with us adding more and more firepower to our jihadist capabilities. The graph of our popularity is going north", Shahid said in a statement. "We are dying to see the "glorious" results of a "grand" onslaught that the "valiant" armed forces of Pakistan are preparing to launch against us", he said, adding, "Instead of pulling the "trigger", if the government of Pakistan focuses on removing the "triggers" of this war the TTP's anti-state activities will reduce drastically". The News, February 27, 2014.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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