SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 28, January 13, 2014

NEPAL

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Surge of Optimism
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In a remarkable achievement after decades of turmoil, the Himalayan Nation remained completely free of insurgency-related violence through 2013. Militant violence has registered a constant decline since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2006, but it is for the first time since March 2000, when the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database commenced compiling data on insurgency-related fatalities in Nepal, that the country did not record a single insurgency-related incident during the course of a year. According to partial data compiled by the SATP, the country witnessed 11 fatalities (10 civilians and one Jantantrik Terai Mukti Morcha cadre) in six such incidents in 2012. At its peak in 2002, the insurgency saw 4,896 persons, including 3,992 Maoists, 666 Security Force personnel and 238 civilians, killed in a single year.

In a worrying development, however, political violence did increase considerably during 2013. Activists of political parties clashed with each other on at least 22 occasions resulting in four deaths and 167 injuries. There were four such incidents resulting in seven injuries and no fatalities in 2012. Further, activists of political parties clashed with law enforcement personnel on at least four occasions in 2013, with 14 persons injured.

Moreover, till the fag-end of 2013, the political environment remained extremely volatile, with a looming threat of violent escalation. Indeed, the clouds of political uncertainty that had enveloped Nepal in 2012, after the dramatic gains of 2011, had deepened, exasperating the political class. Political developments thereafter have, however, made freedom from insurgency-related violence sustainable, even as they have resulted in a diminution in political violence itself.

The successful holding of elections for the second Constituent Assembly (CA) on November 19, 2013, was the critical development that transformed the political environment of the country, despite repeated delays, hiccups and rising bitterness in some political formations during the run-up to the elections. Eventually, a voter turnout of 78.34 per cent conferred tremendous legitimacy on the process, and this could not be undermined by the angry reactions of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (UCPN-M) who were smarting under the brutal electoral rebuff they received. Under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, the Nepali Congress (NC) won largest number of seats, 105; followed by the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), 91; with the UCPN-M getting just 26. The NC got an additional 91 seats under the proportional representation (PR) system; the CPN-UML got 84 PR seats and the UCPN-M, 54. The NC consequently emerged as the largest party in the 601-member CA, with 196 seats; followed by CPN-UML at 175 seats; and UCPN-M with 80 seats.  The often strident and disruptive Madhesi parties have, however, been substantially marginalized, securing just 53 seats (12 under FPTP system and 41 under PR system).

On January 3, 2014, the Election Commission submitted the list of 240 lawmakers elected under the FPTP electoral system and 335 lawmakers under the PR system. The remaining 26 members of the 601-member CA will be nominated by the Cabinet, once formed. The submission was delayed because of the UCPN-M’s earlier decision not to submit names for its PR seats. The party had alleged that the elections were not fairly conducted and had challenged the veracity of the results.

Significantly, in the last CA elections held in 2008, the CPN-Maoist (the parent party of the present UCPN-M) had emerged as the largest party in the CA, securing 229 seats (120 FPTP, 100 PR and nine nominated); followed by NC, with 115 seats (37 FPTP, 73 PR and five nominated); and CPN-UML, with 108 seats (33 FPTP, 70 PR and five nominated).

Clearly, the UCPN-M faced a rout in the recent elections. Party Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda's personal loss from Kathmandu Constituency No. 10, would have been unimaginable a few months earlier, despite the considerable weakening of the party following the vertical split in June 2012. Clearly, as of now, the party has lost its pole position in Nepali politics. The Maoists had emerged as the main political force in Nepal after the signing of the CPA in 2006 and the subsequent 2008 polls for the first CA.

Eventually accepting the current ground realities, the Maoists, who had boycotted the counting of votes, later retracted from their defiant position and confirmed that they would cooperate with the new Government in framing of the new Constitution. This is a major development, since UCPN-M, in the past, had created many unwarranted obstacles in the writing of the Constitution and had repeatedly threatened to go back to the ‘path of revolution’. With diminishing influence and its own willing participation in the electoral process, it cannot credibly threaten the prevailing peace. In a more recent setback, differences have emerged between Prachanda and senior party leader and former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai, in the aftermath of the electoral debacle. The differences widened further over the selection of candidates by the party leadership under the PR system. As of now, however, Bhattarai has declared that he has no intention of splitting the party, though he has warned of 'serious consequences' if Prachanda continues with his "undemocratic working style".

Crucially, the failure of the Mohan Baidya-led faction of the CPN-Maoist to obstruct the elections, or even to significantly impact on the process, despite constant threats and full-throttle opposition, demonstrated that this group is also a spent force, with little current capacity to adversely influence the relative stability that prevails in the country. 

These developments have thus created ample opportunity for the two main parties – NC and CPN-UML - to complete the process of drafting the Constitution to place Nepal squarely on the path of establishing a strong democratic system. There are, of course, some contentious issues that will need to be thrashed out, including, inter alia, the question of the form of governance and federalism. Given the appreciable political maturity these two parties have demonstrated over the past few years, it is expected that these issues may be solved sooner rather than later.

Initial hurdles, however, remain. The first and foremost is the confrontation between President Ram Baran Yadav and the Chairman of the Interim Election Government, Khilraj Regmi, about who will call the first meeting of the second CA. Though the President is reported to have now agreed to allow Regmi to call the meeting, the final word on the issue is yet to be spoken. According to Article 69 of the Interim Constitution, the first meeting of the elected CA should be convened within 21 days of submission of the final list of CA members to the President. It is, of course, anticipated that this confrontation will play itself out within a few days, and the meeting will be called.

Nevertheless, with no party securing a clear majority, the fractured mandate in the CA elections is expectedly creating challenges in Government formation. While the CPN-UML wants the issue of power sharing - including a division of the top posts of President, Vice President, Prime Minister, Speaker and Chairman of the Constitutional Committee among the major political parties – to be decided first, the NC is giving little importance to this issue. On January 8, 2014, NC President Sushil Koirala, when asked to comment on CPN-UML's call for a concrete proposal on power sharing, responded, “What is a concrete proposal? I am not sure. I am not convinced why some parties are unnecessarily propping up the issue of power sharing. The Constitution drafting process is my top priority.” Optimistically, he added, “Political developments are heading in a positive direction and I am hopeful that the CA will convene on time and gradually the government formation process will take shape." He did, nevertheless, concede, "Without consensus among the major parties, it is difficult to write the Constitution. So it’s not a time to distrust any political force. No single party can meet the current challenges before the nation by stonewalling the other.” Again on January 10, 2014, NC leader Ram Sharan Mahat claimed that leaders of both parties – NC and CPN-UML- had already begun talks on government formation, and asserted that a new government led by his party would be formed by the first week of February 2014.

The CA elections have been a powerful lesson to all political formations in Nepal, with a clear popular mandate against the fractious and obstructive politics of the past. Any political party choosing to ignore the public mood can only attract further, and potentially permanent marginalization. While the mandate remains somewhat fractured, it has created conditions that, with a measure of political sagacity on the part of the main players, could result not only in stable arrangements for governance, but, crucially, a final resolution of the issues that have obstructed the drafting of the Constitution.

INDIA

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Tripura: Marginal Concerns
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The stabilisation process gained further momentum in Tripura through 2013, and, remarkably, the State did not record a single terrorism-related fatality through the year - a signal achievement secured for the first time since 1992. 2012 had recorded two fatalities, both militants, in two separate incidents. Significantly, at its peak in 2004, the militancy had claimed as many as 514 lives, including 453 civilians, 45 militants and 16 Security Force (SF) personnel.

Similarly, abduction-for-ransom by militant groups, one of the major worries across the entire Northeastern region, registered a decline in Tripura. As against 11 recorded abductions in three separate incidents in 2012, seven persons were abducted in three such incidents in 2013. In one such incident, militants of the Biswamohan Debbarma faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM) abducted two youth from the Harimani Village Committee area under the Chowmanu Police Station of Dhalai District on July 29, 2013, and demanded a ransom of INR 2,300 from each family of the Harimani Village for their release. The two youth, however, escaped from militant captivity and returned to the village on August 11, 2013.

Crucially, constant pressure exerted by SFs in Bangladesh has weakened the terror outfits operating within Tripura. The two principal militant groups – NLFT and All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) - operating within the State faced major setbacks during the year, compounding the cumulative reverses of past years. On January 23, 2013, SFs disclosed that ATTF 'chairman' Ranjit Debbarma had been arrested from an area under the Sidhai Police Station in the Mohanpur Subdivision of Tripura's West District, near the Indo-Bangladesh border. However, on January 24, 2013, Ranjit Debbarma himself told the media that he was arrested by the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) in Dhaka, and was pushed back into India through Dawki (West Jaintia Hills) in Meghalaya on January 16, and brought to Tripura on January 18.

In addition, SFs in the State arrested another 19 subversives, including nine NLFT cadres, four ATTF militants, five Bangladeshi infiltrators and one agent of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), during the year.

The NLFT, which had been weakened by several splits between 1994 and 2001, suffered another jolt in 2013 when one of its prominent leaders Nayanbashi Jamatiya alias Nakbar, head of the Nayanbanshi faction of NLFT (NLFT-NB), surrendered to the Police in Khowai District on August 9, 2013. Jamatiya had sneaked into Indian Territory through Malda District in West Bengal. Earlier, following peace talks in 2004 NLFT-NB cadres had surrendered en masse in 2006, along with Jamatiya. Jamatiya, however, returned to the jungles, asserting that the talks had failed to secure 'satisfactory' terms for him. Another faction of NLFT, jointly led by Montu Koloi and Kamini Debbarma, had already become defunct after the surrender of the two top leaders on May 5, 2004. Presently, of all the factions of the NLFT, NLFT-BM alone remains active, though mounting pressure by the SFs resulted in the surrender of 14 of its cadres in 2013 alone. In a more recent setback, 'Chief of Army Staff' of NLFT-BM, Pasaram Tripura alias Parshuram alias T. Thomas alias Wathak (51) surrendered in Agartala in West Tripura District on January 10, 2014. He joined undivided NLFT in the year 1994 and was holding the rank of 'Chief of the Army Staff' of NLFT.

On May 16, 2013, Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar disclosed that a total of 8,831 militants and their collaborators had laid down arms over the past decade. Among the surrendered militants, just three persons reneged to rejoin their respective militant outfits. Further, according to Chief Minister Sarkar, Police had seized and recovered arms and ammunition over the past three years, including 61-country made guns, one AK-47 rifle, four grenades, three pistols, two revolvers, a large number of bullets, empty shells and ammunition.

Despite dramatic and positive transformations, however, some residual concerns persist.

On January 2, 2014, Tripura Director General of Police (DGP) C. Balasubramanian stated that the presence of camps of both NLFT-BM and ATTF in Bangladesh remained a worry: “The NLFT headed by Biswamohan Debbarma is still a powerful outfit running around 15/16 hideouts in Bangladesh. One camp is still maintained by the ATTF, that too by two women.” Further, he disclosed that about four to six hideouts were adjacent to the Indo-Bangladesh border while, others were far from it. He also admitted that insurgents were using the Tripura-Mizoram-Bangladesh tri-junction as a transit corridor.

Indeed, NLFT-BM has been active beyond Tripura as well. Over the past two years, areas along the Mizoram-Bangladesh border have become a principal focus of its activities. During 2013, NLFT-BM cadres abducted eight civilians in two separates incidents, in neighbouring Mizoram. In one incident, NLFT-BM militants abducted an engineer of the Delhi-based Telecom Network Solutions, Deep Mondal of West Bengal, along with two Mizos - Sanglianthanga, working with Airtel, and Lalzamliana Aizawl - from Damparengpui village, adjoining the Bangladesh-Tripura border, in the Mamit District of Mizoram, on November 23, 2013. The outfit later demanded a ransom of INR 50 million for Deep Mondal's release. The abductors made no demand for the release of the two Mizos. According to the latest reports, the militants have taken the abductees to Bangladesh, where they still are being held. In 2012, NLFT-BM had abducted 12 civilians from Mizoram.

Another concern is the renewed demand for the formation of a tribal State. The declaration by the Congress Working Committee (CWC) on July 30, 2013, supporting the formation of a separate Telangana State, to be carved out of Andhra Pradesh in South India, and the subsequent endorsement of the idea by the Union Cabinet on October 3, 2013, encouraged the demand for a tribal State to be carved out of Tripura. The Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT) now wants the Central Government to create such a separate State by upgrading the Tripura Tribal Autonomous District Council (TTADC). However, on December 30, 2013, Chief Minister Sarkar stated that he would resist any such move with all his might. The Chief Minister went on to say that “some people are trying to revive militancy for narrow political interests”.

In addition, some 81 kilometres, along difficult terrain, on the 856-kilometer-long Indo-Bangladesh border in Tripura, still remains unfenced creating opportunities for the movement of militant and criminal elements across the international boundary. Some 1309.35 kilometers of the entire 4,096.70 kilometer Indo-Bangladesh border are still to be fenced. However, on December 17, 2013, the Government claimed that only 569.22 kilometers of the border (72.30 in Tripura's case) remained unfenced, and that fencing along 2,787.35 kilometers (775.70 in Tripura's case) out of the sanctioned 3359.59 kilometers (848 kilometers in Tripura's case) had been completed, and fencing along the remaining 3.02 kilometers was 'unfeasible'. The Government further claimed that the sanctioned work would be completed by March 2014. Significantly, India has managed to fence just a two-kilometer stretch on the Indo-Bangladesh border in the past one year.

Summing up Tripura's situation on November 14, 2013, Chief Minister Sarkar, observed:

NLFT-BM is trying to recruit new cadres and extort money for its revival. The militants have become weak and cornered but they are not totally uprooted. I made it clear to 14th FC (Finance Commission) that insurgency in Tripura is contained but not eradicated, though we have a remarkable success in dealing with militancy. The State's security-related expenditure has increased to 16 percent of the total committed expenditure and the figure continues to rise for maintaining peace and fight against the militants.

In view of the situation, the State Government, in December 2013, decided to extend the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) in 32 Police Station areas of the State for another six months, commencing January 1, 2014. AFSPA has been effective fully in 25 Police Station areas and partially in another seven since June 5, 2013. AFSPA was operational in all 40 Police Station areas of the State, when it was first imposed in Tripura in February 1997.

The Police led-Counter-Insurgency operations in Tripura have successfully reclaimed peace after some of the most violent decades in the State. The State has also established a remarkable Police presence, with 639 Policemen per 100,000 population, and 223.8 Policemen per 100 square kilometres, well above the national averages of 138 and 52.9, respectively, as well as dramatic capabilities to confront any future challenge of insurgency.

Nevertheless, the residual presence of militant groups across the unfenced and remote segments of the Bangladesh border remains a troubled zone in the otherwise peaceful State. Until such threats are fully neutralized, a final and irreversible victory against the insurgency cannot be declared.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Bihar

Jharkhand

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)