SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 18, November 4, 2013

BANGLADESH

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Clash of Titans
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

With less than three months left before the General Elections in Bangladesh (the term of the present Parliament expires on January 24, 2014) political tensions in the country are approaching a knife-edge, with mass mobilisation and violence escalating continuously, and the major political formations in the country increasingly polarized. The Opposition parties led by the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) have started a movement demanding a non-party Caretaker Government (CG) to oversee the next polls. A three-day countrywide shut down by the BNP between October 27-29, 2013, saw violent clashes between mobs and Police, and at least 10 persons were killed.

Earlier, on October 19, 2013, with the crescendo of street demonstrations and violence soaring, Bangladeshi authorities had banned rallies and street protests in capital Dhaka for an indefinite period. Police and elite anti-crime Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) personnel were deployed around the Bangabandhu International Conference Centre (BICC) and other strategic locations of the city to thwart possible street protests by BNP cadres. On October 20, 2013, the Opposition parties staged demonstrations across the country as part of their protest against the indefinite ban on public gatherings in Dhaka city. At least 20 people were injured in a clash between the activists of ruling Awami League (AL) and opposition BNP at Ku Koramara village in Bagerhat District on that day. Later, on October 25, 2013, seven people were killed in violence that broke out between BNP activists, AL activists and law enforcers in different places across the country. Several hundred people were also injured.

Meanwhile, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) had arrested four leaders and cadres of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) from Ashulia, an outskirt of Dhaka city, on October 7, 2013, and recovered one foreign-made pistol, 32 bullets, and 1,135 rounds of SMG (Sub-Machine Gun) bullets, five detonators, one kilogram of high-powered explosive and other blasting equipment from their possession. Separately, RAB arrested three leaders of Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), an Islamist extremist outfit, at Rahanpur Bazar under Gomastapur sub-District of Chapainawabganj District on October 8, 2013, and recovered two computer central processing units (CPUs) and monitors, 26 CDs, and books propagating extremism. Indeed, in the wake of a bomb blast at Hefajat-e-Islam (HeI) Nayeb-e-Ameer (Deputy Chief) Mufti Izharul Islam Chowdhury’s madrasa (religious seminary) in Chittagong on October 7, 2013, top officials of the Home Ministry and Police disclosed, on October 8, 2013, that banned militant outfits were planning to carry out terrorist attacks in the country.

In an exceptional gesture on October 26, 2013, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had phoned her archrival Khaleda Zia, leader of the BNP, and had a 37-minute conversation inviting the BNP chairperson to the Gono Bhaban (People's House), the official residence of the Prime Minister, to talk about the impending parliamentary elections. Khaleda, however, rejected the invitation, demanding, instead, “If you first agree in principle on holding the next general election under a non-partisan polls-time Government, then we will call off all our agitation including the 60-hour hartal. And we will sit to discuss how to form the polls-time Government.”

With the initiative to evolve a consensual solution in tatters, BNP, in alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI), and other radical groups, unleashed a wave violence in the streets across the country. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), as many as 194 people, including 102 civilians, 83 JeI-ICS cadres, and nine Security Force (SF) personnel have been killed since the delivery of the first verdict in the War Crimes Trial on January 21, 2013 (Data till November 3, 2013).

Significantly, it appears that the 18-Party opposition alliance, till now headed by the BNP, is progressively being hijacked by the JeI, with its focus shifting to opposition to the War Crimes Trials and obstruction of the execution of its verdicts, rather than any dispute over the impending Parliamentary elections. Indeed, at a rally held by the alliance at the historic Suhrawardy Udyan in Dhaka, JeI cadres scuffled with BNP activists in their attempts to occupy the stage and the first seats. With ugly clashes between JeI-ICS cadres and BNP activists at the venue, JeI cadres cheered only when their leaders were making speeches. The Daily Star reported that the ICS activists had been ordered by the party high command to rush to the venue and take control of the rally. This was repeated in other places in Bangladesh, where simultaneous 'joint' rallies were being held.

Even as her party was upstaged, Khaleeda Zia intensified her attack against the Sheikh Hasina Government, describing it as ‘totally illegitimate' and 'unconstitutional'.

Significantly, in a public opinion survey conducted by The Daily Star and Asia Foundation, with 1,400 respondents across 14 Districts during the second and third weeks of September 2013, the AL-led Government received significant praise from voters on various issues, including agricultural policy and performance, power supply, delivery of public service and law and order. Nevertheless, a majority of 55 per cent of the respondents declared that they would vote for the BNP, with just 28 per cent saying they would vote for AL.

Counter-intuitively, at the same time, public opinion appears to be building up against radicalization and public demonstrations to this effect have been prominent. Thus, after the Opposition of October 28, children of the freedom fighters of 1971, under the banner of Amra Muktijoddhar Shontan (AMS, We Are Children of Freedom Fighters) washed the alter of the a liberation war memorial site at the Suhrawardy Udyan in Dhaka with their blood, declaring it had been 'desecrated' by Khaleeda Zia, who made a speech demanding the release of convicted war criminals. In a symbolic gesture, AMS leaders donated blood drawn by a doctor, which was then dissolved in water, with which the altar was cleansed. Suhrawardy Udyan in Dhaka is the venue where Sheikh Mujibur Rehman had delivered the historic March 7, 1971 speech. It is also the historic venue where the remnants of the Pakistan Army surrendered to India on December 16, 1971.

Meanwhile, even as polarized political passions intensified, the International Crimes Tribunal-2 (ICT-2), on November 3, 2013, awarded the death penalty to absconding Al-Badr leaders Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman Khan alias Nayeb Ali and Chowdhury Mueenuddin for their involvement in the 1971 War Crimes. All 11 charges leveled against them by the prosecution were proved. The convicts received the death penalty for abduction and killing of nine Dhaka University teachers, six eminent journalists and three physicians in December 1971. Mueen was the ‘operations in charge’ and Ashraf was the ‘chief executor’ of Al-Badr and they directly took part in the killing of intellectuals in Dhaka.  On June 24, 2013, Ashraf and Mueen were jointly indicted on 11 counts of crimes against humanity for abducting and killing 18 persons. The trial began on July 15. The two accused were tried in absentia. Mueen lives in London and Ashraf in New York. 

Earlier, on October 9, 2013, the ICT-2 had sentenced Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Abdul Alim (83) to ‘imprisonment until death’. Alim was the chairman of Joypurhat Municipality during the Liberation War period, and was subsequently a founding member of BNP. He was elected Member of Parliament in 1979, 1996 and 2001. Zia-ur-Rahman made Alim a Cabinet Minister in 1978. Alim was found guilty on nine of the 17 charges brought against him. The four charges on account of which he was sentenced to ‘imprisonment until death’ included: committing genocide in Karai Kadipur, Chawkpara, Sonapara, Palpara and Munshipara of Jaipurhat District on April 26, 1971; committing genocide at Uttar Hatsahar and Harunja Hat of Khetlal in Jaipurhat District towards the end of May 1971; killing 15 youth at West Amatra in Jaipurhat District on June 14, 1971; and killing three freedom fighters at Khanjanpur Khuthibari in October 1971.

Thus far nine verdicts have been awarded by the International Crimes Tribunals (ICTs) conducting the War Crimes Trials that begin on March 25, 2010. While seven verdicts had been announced earlier, the Abdul Alim verdict is the second against a BNP leader. The first BNP leader to be convicted, on October 1, 2013, was Salauddin Quader Chowdhury.

In another trial on the same day, ICT-1 indicted the vice-president of the Nagarkanda unit (Faridpur District) of BNP, M.A. Zahid Hossain Khokon (70) alias Khokon Razakar on 11 charges, including genocide, torture, abduction and confinement during the Liberation War of 1971. According to the charges leveled against him, Khokon, at that time a local leader of the Razakars (Volunteers), an auxiliary force of the Pakistani Army, in Faridpur District, was involved in at least 13 incidents of war crimes that resulted in the death of more than 50 people, serious injuries to another eight and the rape of two women. Khokon was also proven to be involved in the forced conversion of Hindus, the torching of numerous houses and two temples, and the deportation of seven people. Khokon became the 14^th high profile leader in Bangladesh to be indicted for War Crimes. Earlier, 13 leaders, including 11 of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and two of the BNP, had been indicted for War Crimes.

Further, on October 6, 2013, the Jatiya Sangsad (National Parliament) passed the 'Voters' List (Second Amendment) Bill, 2013', with a provision of removing the names of those who were awarded punishment for War Crimes. The amended section of the law stated that the names of those who were awarded punishment under the Bangladesh Collaborators (Special Tribunal) Order 1972 or under the International Crimes Tribunal or mentally retarded person declared by any court or a person not citizen of Bangladesh, would be removed from the voters' list. Law Minister Shafique Ahmed tabled the Voters' List (Second Amendment) Bill, 2013, in Parliament and it was passed by voice vote.

Significantly, on October 8, 2013, accusing the BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia of siding with war criminals, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina warned that if the BNP came to power again, the country would experience a reign of terror and corruption, declaring, “The BNP resorts to terrorism, looting and corruption when it comes to power, while the AL brings peace and carries out massive development." Further, she added, "I believe that we will be able to complete the trial of those who committed crimes against humanity during the Liberation War in 1971. The BNP cannot save them.”  While addressing her party’s grassroots leaders at her residence in Dhaka city on October 9, 2013, Prime Minister Hasina articulated the apprehension that pro-liberation forces would be wiped out and a dangerous situation would prevail in the country if the “BNP-Jamaat-e-Islami-Hefajat-e-Islam” combine came to power through the next parliamentary election.

Indeed, the achievements of the Sheikh Hasina Government in its counter-terrorism and de-radicalization programmes, as well as on the developmental front, have been extraordinary. Nevertheless, the political uncertainties persist, and her performance does not appear to have been translated into a consolidated electoral advantage. The current mass mobilisation on the War Crimes issue and the arrangements for the coming elections certainly have the potential to undermine the Hasina Government’s gains, even as subversive and extremist Islamist formations retain significant potential to stage a dangerous and disruptive revival.

PAKISTAN

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Ominous Signs
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Hakimullah Mehsud, the ‘chief’ of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), who had a USD five million US Government bounty on his head, was killed along with four other TTP cadres in a US drone strike in the Dandy Darpakhel area, five kilometres north of Miranshah, the main town of North Waziristan Agency (NWA) in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on November 1, 2013. Intelligence officials said Hakimullah and his associated were leaving from a meeting at a mosque when the drone targeted their vehicle. Those killed included Abdullah Bahar Mehsud and Tariq Mehsud, both key ‘commanders’ and close aides of the TTP chief. 

Hakimullah Mehsud had been declared dead earlier as well, once on January 14, 2010, and again on January 12, 2012, only to resurface on both occasions. This time his death was confirmed by the TTP itself, which had denied his demise in the earlier incidents. Meshud was buried at an unknown location in NWA on November 2, 2013.

Hakimullah Mehsud had succeeded his mentor and clansman, Baitullah Mehsud, who was killed in a US drone strike on August 5, 2009. Significantly, the TTP had been formed under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud in December 2007. Since then, the group has emerged as the deadliest of all terrorist formations operating within Pakistan.

Since TTP’s formation in December 2007, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, Pakistan has recorded at least 43,264 fatalities, out of which 5916 have been claimed by TTP. Of the 2952 major attacks (each resulting in three or more fatalities), 797 have been claimed by the TTP. 86 suicide attacks have also been claimed by TTP out of a total of 301 over the same period. In one of the worst of these attacks, two suicide bombers blew themselves up in Yakka Ghund tehsil of Mohmand Agency in FATA, killing at least 108 persons and injuring another 69 on July 9, 2010. The most recent high fatality attack for which TTP has claimed responsibility was at Parachinar in the Kurram Agency of FATA on July 26, 2013, in which at least 62 persons were killed and another 180 were injured.

TTP also repeatedly targeted International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troops operating in Afghanistan. In a major attack on December 30, 2009, TTP militants executed a suicide attack on CIA facilities in Camp Chapman in Afghanistan, in which nine persons were killed and another six were injured. Seven of the dead were Americans working for the CIA. TTP has also claimed responsibility for the failed bombing of Times Square in New York on May 1, 2010.

This is the second significant blow to the TTP within a month, following the capture of senior ‘commander’ Latif Mehsud by US forces in Afghanistan on October 11, 2013. Latif Mehsud had served as a trusted confidante of Hakimullah Mehsud.

Since 2007, several top TTP leaders have been eliminated, the most prominent among them including:

January 3, 2013: Maulvi Nazir, a top ranking TTP ‘commander’, was killed along with 10 other TTP terrorists in a US drone strike in the Sarkundi area of Birmal tehsil (revenue unit) in the South Waziristan Agency (SWA).

May 29, 2013: Waliur Rehman, 'deputy chief' and number two in TTP, was killed along with at least five other TTP terrorists in a US drone strike at Chashma village near Miranshah town of NWA.

October 7, 2010: Qari Hussain Ahmad Mehsud, chief of the group's suicide bombing squad, was killed along with another four TTP terrorists in a drone strike on a terrorist compound in the Khaisoori area of Mir Ali in NWA. He was a cousin of Hakimullah Mehsud.

The drones have also been successful in eliminating the top leadership of al Qaeda and the Haqqani Network, most significantly including Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, May 1-2, 2011; Abu Yahya al-Libi, al Qaeda ‘second-in-command’, June 4, 2012; Badr Mansoor, al Qaeda's Pakistan chapter ‘commander’, February 9, 2012; Ilyas Kashmiri, a top al Qaeda leader and ‘operational commander’ of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), June 11, 2011; Sangin Zadran, the senior most ‘commander’ of the Haqqani Network, September 5, 2013; Akhtar Zadran, senior ‘commander’ of the Haqqani Network, July 2, 2013; and Badruddin Haqqani, a top ranking ‘commander’ of the Haqqani Network, August 24, 2012. 

Evidently, the drones have been the most effective means to take on the top leadership of terrorist outfits operating out of Pakistan. This remains the case despite the strong opposition of the Pakistani political class, under the influence of radical forces, who have argued that the drones have claimed many innocent civilians. Recently, Pakistan’s UN Ambassador Masood Khan had argued that civilians suffered “inhumane” deaths and the strikes had “radicalised” public opinion in Pakistan. On October 30, 2013, Pakistan's Ministry of Defence, however, conceded that 317 drone strikes within Pakistan had killed 2,160 Islamist terrorists and 67 civilians since 2008, discrediting claims of overwhelming civilian fatalities. The Ministry also claimed that no innocent civilian had been hit by the drone strikes since January 2012, while more than three hundred terrorists had been neutralized in the strikes.

While the issue of drone strikes continues to be debated, not just in Pakistan, but also in the US and in international fora across the world, the assessment of the impact of the latest incident has more urgent significance. Hakimullah Mehsud's killing is, of course, a major achievement for the Americans, but it is unlikely to affect the TTP capabilities and operations in the long run. TTP's Markazi Majlis-e-Shoora (Central Advisory Committee) has already appointed Khan Syed Mehsud aka Sajna as the new chief, and there is no doubt that he will continue to carry forward the ‘agenda’ of his predecessors. Within TTP, Khan Syed Mehsud is revered for his bravery in the battlefield

Indeed, there is every probability of an escalation of violence within Pakistan in the aftermath of Hakimullah Mehsud's killing, as TTP vows to take revenge for his death. Abu Omar, a TTP ‘commander’ in NWA, thus declared, "Our revenge will be unprecedented." Claiming that the Pakistani Government was "fully complicit" in the drone strike, Omar asserted, "We know our enemy very well."

Hakimullah Mehsud's killing will certainly disrupt the purported 'peace process' between the Pakistani Government and the TTP.  Indeed, on October 31, 2013, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had announced that the process to initiate peace talks with TTP had been started. After Hakimullah Mehsud's killing, however, Federal Minister of Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar noted, “We are examining different aspects of this incident. The attack has severely damaged the expected TTP-government talks. We condemn it. I am in touch with the Prime Minister to sort out ways to control the damage. The Americans don’t want peace in Pakistan. We will devise some concrete policy on drone attacks. Pakistan will have to talk to US to seek explanation of its actions from US Ambassador in Pakistan.”

Other political parties have also strongly condemned US drone strikes, and have described the hit on Hakimullah Mehsud as America's effort to sabotage peace talks with TTP. Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan, on November 1, 2013, demanded that the Government block NATO supplies going through the country. Imran Khan further asserted that the US drone attack was as a conspiracy to sabotage peace efforts. Earlier, on October 31, 2013, Imran Khan had issued a warning that his party would block the NATO supply line if the US executed any drone strikes against TTP. His party is set to table resolutions in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly and National Assembly on November 4, 2013, in this regard. However, KP Chief Minister Pervez Khattak on November 3, 2013, clarified that NATO supply routes would be blocked only after consulting all political parties.

The latest drone strike, and the certainty that there will be others in future, will undoubtedly derail Islamabad’s plan to buy peace with the terrorists who have been on a killing spree across Pakistan, and will adversely impact Pakistan's plans to shift focus to Afghanistan and Kashmir, taking advantage of the imminent US drawdown from Afghanistan.

Corrigendum: In the original assessment, in the list of top TTP leaders killed since 2007, Asmatullah Muaviya's name was also included. Indeed, news reports had earlier reported that Asmatullah Muaviya, one of the main 'commanders' of TTP's Punjab chapter, was among 10 persons killed in a US drone strike in SWA on January 16, 2010. However, recent reports suggest that Asmatullah Muaviya is still alive and heading the Punjab Chapter of TTP. Asmatullah Muaviya's name has now been removed from the list. The mistake is rectified on November 5, 2013.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

Left Wing Extremism

Total (BANGLADESH)

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Maharashtra

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)