SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 11, September 16 , 2013

BANGLADESH

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Islamist Terrorism: New Challenges
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In an attempt to derail Sheikh Hasina Wajed’s Awami League (AL)-led Government’s efforts to suppress Islamist extremism and terrorism within the country, Islamist militant formations have started reorganizing themselves, presenting a rising challenge to the regime and its enforcement apparatus. On September 3, 2013, Mukhlesur Rahman, Director General of Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), disclosed, "We have information that the militants are trying to reorganize their groups under different banners. All the 13 anti-militant wings of RAB have been asked to remain vigilant across the country to collect advance information of their regrouping." Following this, intelligence operations were stepped up across the country, especially in remote areas, to collect advance information of regrouping of Islamist militants to frustrate their activities.

Significantly, on August 25, 2013, the Detective Branch (DB) of the Police stated that a new extremist formation, the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) has now emerged and was following in the footsteps of Islamist terrorists in other Muslim countries. The ABT plans to gain control of a part of the country (Bangladesh) and conduct armed jihad (Islamic uprising) from there to make Bangladesh a Sharia-based Islamic State. Mufti Jasimuddin Rahmani, the head of ABT, was arrested along with 30 of his followers, on August 12, 2013, while they were allegedly holding a secret meeting to plan to attack Police Stations and other state establishments in order to create disorder, destabilize Bangladesh, and overthrow the Government through jihad. Again, Police arrested nine ABT extremists from different parts of Dhaka city on August 25, 2013, along with an instruction manual on how to explode grenades and use rocket launchers, as well as some books on jihad. Dhaka Metropolitan Police Joint Commissioner Monirul Islam commented, “They were planning to overthrow the Government through jihad.” Senior Assistant Commissioner of the Detective Branch, Mohammad Touhidul Islam, added, “They [ABT] are closely following al Qaeda in running their organization.”

ABT started their extremist activities under the banner of a Non Government Organisation (NGO), Research Centre for Unity and Development, way back in 2004. The group follows the ideals, policy and strategy of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Pakistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Another growing concern in Bangladesh is the Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT, ‘Party of Liberation’). Colonel T.M. Jobaer, Director of National Security Intelligence, described HuT as “currently the biggest threat of all the Islamic outfits… the organization is strong because it has a strong international agenda - it wants to establish a Khilafat (Islamic State) in many countries."

Meanwhile, other terrorist formations that had been forced into dormancy over the past years, have also been trying to regain lost ground. According to a September 9, 2013, report, the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B), which had been paralyzed since the arrest of its ‘operations commander’ Mufti Abdul Hannan in Dhaka city on October 1, 2005, has, over the past five years, recruited around 10,000 cadres and supporters through cyber services such as the social network website Facebook. On August 14, 2013, Police arrested nine cadres of HuJI-B at Kademul Islam Qaumi Madrassah mosque in the Jhalakati District, while they were allegedly participating in a ‘training session’.

Disturbingly, the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), which was responsible for the countrywide serial bombings in 2005, and had been crippled when virtually its entire top leadership was executed in 2007, is presently trying to reorganize, albeit on a "very small scale". On August 16, 2013, RAB Legal and Media Wing Director A.T.M. Habibur Rahman observed, “With its whole network dismantled, the banned militant outfit has almost no strength left to carry out any subversive activity. Some JMB members were recently caught printing leaflets and posters, suggesting that they were active…” On June 20, 2013, a Dhaka court sentenced 10 JMB terrorists to death over a suicide bomb attack at the Gazipur Bar Association office on November 29, 2005, in which eight people were killed, including four lawyers, and another 80 were injured.

Other groups, including the Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB) and Hizb-ut-Tawhid (HT), among others, continue to propagate appeals for jihad. In a recent incident, on August 22, 2013, Police arrested two female cadres of HT from the Kanaikhali area of Natore District while they were distributing books on jihad.

Further, Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI, 'Protectorate of Islam'), which came to prominence after it raised its 13-point demands on March 9, 2013, has expanded the space for all Islamist extremist formations to extend their subversion in the name of political activism.

Home Minister Mohiuddin Khan Alamgir, for instance, claimed that cadres of Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and its student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) had joined the violent May 5, 2013, rally under the aegis of HeI. Alamgir stated, on May 5, 2013, “We have talked to the leaders of the HeI and they have confirmed that the people who attacked Police are not their activists.” On September 5, 2013, Police identified seven political parties – JeI, Islami Oikya Jote, Muslim League, Nezam-e-Islam (Latif), Nezam-e-Islami (Izharul Islam), Khelafat-e-Islam, and Khelafat-e-Mazlish – that participated in the rally and engaged in widespread violence, intimidation and disruption. At least 35 people were killed in their campaigns between May 5 and 14, 2013.

On August 26, 2013, at a ‘views-exchange meeting’ organized by the Islami Dalsamuha (an alliance of some 15 Islamic Parties), at the head office of one of the alliance partners, Bangladesh Khelafat Andolon (BKA, ‘Bangladesh Caliphate Movement’), in Dhaka city’s Lalbagh area, ended with a declaration that the alliance would act against the ruling Awami League (AL), which they considered an “anti-Islamic element”. Zafrullah Khan, ‘secretary general’ of BKA and a member secretary of Islami Dalsamuha declared, “Our first target is to oust the ruling AL government and take steps so that the party cannot come to power in the next general election.” BKA, an Islamist political party founded by Moulana Mohammadullah alias Hafezzi Huzur, on July 30, 2008, had demanded that women be made ineligible for the posts of head of Government or State.

Further, reviewing the role of Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI, Pakistan’s external intelligence agency) in Bangladesh, State Minister for Law, Advocate Quamrul Islam, on May 8, 2013, claimed that the mayhem on May 5, 2013, in Dhaka city was backed by the ISI. Moreover, the clashes between Rohingya Muslims and Buddhists in the Rakhine State in Myanmar, which resulted in some 200 deaths and the displacement of over 22,000 people in 2012, have provided a new opportunity to ISI-backed Islamist formations to consolidate their hold in Bangladesh, and to make the Bangladesh-Myanmar Border their operational base.

Meanwhile, violence perpetrated by JeI-ICS cadres with the tacit support of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) continued unabated. According to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the country has witnessed 206 Islamist related fatalities in total, including 116 civilians, 77 militants and 13 Security Forces (SFs) through 2013 (all data till September 15). By contrast, only three Islamist extremism-linked fatalities had been recorded in 2012, including one civilian and two terrorists; no fatalities were reported in 2011; and in 2010, six fatalities were recorded, including three civilians and three militants.

These worrying developments have the potential to undermine the Hasina Government’s work over the past years. Indeed, since it came to power on January 6, 2009, on the promise of taking drastic measures to tackle terrorism in its election manifesto, the regime has been able to rein in Islamist extremist groups in substantial measure. Despite tremendous and sustained opposition, the Government has pushed on with the War Crimes Trials, where a total of 13 persons, including 11 JeI and two BNP leaders, have been indicted thus far. 12 of these persons had been indicted till August 1, 2013, while the thirteenth, JeI central executive committee member Mir Quasem Ali, was indicted on September 5, 2013. Quasem Ali faces 14 charges, including murder, torture, abduction and confinement of people and complicity in crimes against humanity during the Liberation War of 1971. Out of 13 persons indicted, four have already been awarded death sentence, while another two have been given life imprisonment. Trials of the remaining seven are under process.   

The SFs have arrested at least 2,861 extremists belonging to various Islamist groups in 2013, as against 1,832 such arrests in 2012; 578 in 2011; and 958 in 2010.

The achievements of the Sheikh Hasina Government in its counter-terrorism and de-radicalization programmes have been extraordinary, and they have established a measure of stability in a State that, just a few years ago, appeared to be going the Pakistan way. Nevertheless, these gains remain fragile. The hold of subversive and extremist Islamist formations remains significant and is spread across the country, and the possibility of a dangerous and disruptive revival has not been eliminated.

NEPAL

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Calling the Bluff?
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

As preparations for Constituent Assembly (CA) elections on November 19, 2013, gather momentum in Nepal, the Mohan Baidya-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Baidya) appears increasingly isolated in its opposition to the elections. This acquires a special significance in view of the failed August 24, 2013, round table conference, where the High Level Political Committee (HLPC) decided to go ahead with poll preparations, pending negotiation with CPN-Maoist-Baidya.  In a shock to the Baidya faction, the Ashok Rai-led Federal Socialist Party-Nepal (FSP-N), which was agitating against CA elections along with the CPN-Maoist-Baidya and other fringe parties, reached a five-point agreement with the HLPC on September 6, 2013, to participate in the CA elections. Earlier, on August 15, another agitating party, the Upendra Yadav-led Federal Democratic Front (FDF), had also reached an agreement with the HLPC to participate in the elections.

According to the agreement with FSP-N, the HLPC agreed to raise the strength of the CA from 585 to 601-members and to hold an ‘all-party meeting’ with participation of all political parties represented in the dissolved CA. Earlier, the HLPC had agreed to the FDF demand to increase CA strength from 491 to 585. The original number, 491, had been decided in the 11-point agreement. The previous CA had 601 members. Regarding the all party-meeting, both sides agreed that “the government will be requested to hold an all-party meeting to ensure CA polls on the scheduled date.” The agitating political parties, including the FSP-N and the CPN-Maoist-Baidya-led 33-party alliance, had been insisting on holding a round-table conference to discuss ‘major contentious political issues’ – which really meant reopening issues settled by the 11-point agreement. Interestingly, FSP-N delayed the signing of the agreement for a day after giving ‘in principle consent’, apparently to consult Mohan Baidya regarding the all party meeting. However, the terms of the proposed all party meeting left little scope for Baidya to press for his two main demands – postponement of November 19 elections and dissolution of the present Government.

Meanwhile, Nepali Congress (NC) President Sushil Koirala on September 6, 2013, said that elections to the CA would not be put off even if some parties so desired, and the country was now headed towards elections. Koirala added that initiatives would be taken till the eleventh hour to bring the dissenting parties on board, but the forthcoming CA elections would not be put off even if absolute consensus was not reached. Referring to the 33-party alliance led by the CPN-Maoist-Baidya, Koirala stated, "We are ready to meet all demands of the dissenting parties except postponing the CA elections date and dissolution of the incumbent Government."

Koirala’s statements on September 6, 2013, were largely reflected in the all party meet that was convened the next day and endorsed by the agreement signed with FSPN. The CPN-Maoist-Baidya, predictably, did not attend the meeting, declaring that the invitation to attend the meeting came with the precondition to discuss holding of elections on November 19. Expectedly, moreover, a majority of parties attending the meeting remained firm on the November 19 poll date. Minister for Information and Communications, Madhav Paudel, observed after the meeting, “We are further encouraged after today’s meeting as most of the representatives from over 24 political parties attending the discussions have stood for holding the CA polls on November 19.” However, the unanimous view was also to exert maximum effort to bring the CPN-Maoist-Baidya on board, and wait for a consensus as long as the Election Commission’s (EC) calendar of events allowed. On September 4, 2013, the EC declared that agitating parties could not be accommodated if they were not on board before the commission started designing the ballot papers on September 9, 2013.

Notwithstanding its progressive isolation, CPN-Maoist-Baidya is yet to blink. Instead, the party has started training cadres in Rukum District to disrupt the polls, though its threats are unlikely to have significant impact on the polls. The real issue is whether the EC and all or some of the major parties themselves are prepared for the polls on that agreed date. Despite claims by the EC, there are skeptics who doubt its capacity to put in place everything required to conduct polls smoothly. Another big distraction is the month-long festivities of Dasain and Tihar in October which Nepalis celebrate with great enthusiasm. Official work as well as party work would be the last thing people would care to engage in during this period. With such a big distraction in October, elections on November 19 would be difficult even if all parties were in agreement. It would, consequently, not be entirely surprising if the HLPC agreed to another postponement to a more suitable date in March-April 2014 ‘for the sake of consensus’, and CPN-Maoist-Baidya then agrees to participate. C. P. Mainali of the Communist Party of Nepal-Marxist Leninist (CPN-ML) remarked at the September 7, 2013, all party meeting that the November 19 date is “not cast in stone.” Another participant, Keshav Man Shakya of the Nepal Rashtriya Party advised the participants not to exclude a party with 92 former lawmakers from the poll process, in order to ensure that the process remained meaningful. When CPN-Maoist-Baidya broke away from the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), 92 out of a total of 229 CA members of UCPN-M went with the Baidya faction. 

Meanwhile, another all-party meeting called by the President, Dr Ram Baran Yadav, on September 15 to consider the demands put forward by Mohan Baidya-led alliance remained inconclusive with parties agreeing to meet again on September 16.  

Amid the political uncertainties regarding the elections, the contentious Army Integration process was concluded on August 26, 2013, as 70 former People’s Liberation Army (PLA) combatants selected as officer-cadets were conferred their insignia of rank in the Nepal Army. Of the 70 officer-cadets, Yam Bahadur Adhikari was given the rank of Colonel in accordance with the earlier agreement. Among others passing out at the function, Bashudev Ghimire and Padam Bahadur Tamang were given the rank of lieutenant colonel. Another 13 were conferred the rank of major, in addition to 30 captains and 24 lieutenants. The cadets will join a three-month bridging course before taking on their new responsibilities. Out of 19,602 verified Maoist combatants around 14,000 chose voluntary retirement and received cash packages. Altogether 1,444 former Maoist combatants participated in the training, including 70 training for officer level ranks and the remaining 1,373 for other ranks. The ranks were determined in accordance with the recommendation of the Special Committee, on which leaders from the major political forces were represented. The integration process, an important cornerstone of the peace process that started with the comprehensive peace agreement, was never smooth, with controversies regarding the number and modalities of integration and finally the issue of rank determination of the combatants, holding up progress periodically.

The contentious issue of federalism, which remained unresolved in the last CA and eventually led to its dissolution, still remains knotty. The demand of the people of the Terai (Madhesh) region to have ‘One Madhesh, One Province’ has remained an important strand of the tangled federalism issue. However, what could augur well for Nepal is the gradual realization among Madheshi political parties that such a demand is not attainable, as a single Madhesh province would fail to address the aspirations of the diverse communities living in the Terai-Madhesh. According to media reports, in the run up to the scheduled CA elections, most Madheshi political parties have dropped the ‘one Madhesh one Province’ demand in favour of two Pradesh (provinces). Chandeshwar Sharma Khatbe, Secretary of Madheshi People’s Right Forum-Democratic (MPRF-D) stated on August 26, that the demand for ‘one Madhesh one province’ was futile as it was neither practical nor scientific: “We have proposed two provinces for Madhesh in our election manifesto for the forthcoming Constituent Assembly elections.” Similarly, Co-chairman of the Rajendra Mahato-led Sadbhvana Party (SP) Laxman Lal Karn stated on August 26 that his party also endorsed the two province demand in its three-day Central Committee meeting concluded at Janakpur earlier in the day. Similarly, the Mahanth Thakur-led Terai Madhesh Democratic Party (TMDP) Central Committee (CC) member Ganesh Nepali noted on August 26 that the ‘one Madhesh, one province’ demand was not acceptable to the Tharu communities of the Terai. “The formation of two provinces in the Terai would pave the way for taking the Tharu communities into confidence,” he noted.

However, MJF-N continues to stick to the ‘one Madhesh one Province’ stand,arguing that two provinces would not solve the key issue of Federalism. Nevertheless, the party conceded that, considering the violence that erupted in the Terai region in 2008 following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the two-Province proposal (in Madhesh) could be a good starting point.

Despite some positive developments, Mohan Baidya’s continuing threats to disrupt the polls and the HLPC’s posture suggesting that his bluff would be called, does not auger well for the strong foundation that the new Constituent Assembly desperately needs. Baidya’s demands appear to be nothing but an agenda to delay the CA polls, possibly to put his organization in proper shape before election, or possibly even as a proxy for other political forces which are not yet ready for the polls. Under the circumstances, the postponement of elections till March-April 2014, without disrupting the present political arrangement, may appear attractive even to several political formations that have currently accepting the current election schedule.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Left-wing Extremism

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Left-wing Extremism

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)