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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 11, No. 23, December 10, 2012
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Chronic
Uncertainty
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
The irreversible
gains of 2011 had excited widespread expectation
of further consolidation in Nepal, with the hope that the political
class would settle their deeper political rifts through a substantially
consensual political process. Regrettably, Kathmandu remained as
fractious as ever through 2012, deepening the political uncertainty
in the country. At the end of 2011, there was optimism regarding
the formation of a National Consensus Government (NCG); today, Nepal
is led by a Government which has lost its constitutional mandate,
having missed the November 22, 2012, deadline for elections.
Significantly, the dissolution
of the Constituent Assembly (CA), on May 27, 2012, after the Supreme
Court rejected any further extensions of its tenure, left the Government
with no legal
alternatives to an election, and on May 28,
2012, Prime Minister (PM) Baburam Bhattarai declared, “We have no
other option but to go back to the people and elect a new Assembly
to write the Constitution. Though we were unable to promulgate the
Constitution, we have decided to seek a mandate through elections
for a new Constituent Assembly on November 22.” The PM stated, further,
that he would be leading a caretaker Government until the elections
scheduled for November 22, 2012, leading to a breakdown of negotiations
with other political formations in the country, who were demanding
that elections could only be held under the NCG, as agreed upon
earlier.
Nevertheless, the four major
parties – Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M),
Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Nepali
Congress (NC) and the United Democratic Madheshi Front (UDMF) –
soon engaged in the process to negotiate an agreement on the procedure
of conducting the CA elections. Unsurprisingly, the intrinsic character
of the Nepali polity came to the fore again, and the parties failed
to reach a consensus. The deadline could not be met. On November
20, 2012, the Government announced fresh CA elections in the month
of Baisakh (April-May) 2013.
The present political impasse
has risen over the question of who is to head the NCG, under whose leadership
the CA elections are to be conducted. The NC and the CPN-UML have strongly
rejected the idea of an NCG headed by the UCPN-M. Staking his party’s claim
to the NCG’s leadership, NC President Sushil Koirala, who has been chosen
by his party as its prime ministerial candidate, argued, on December 2, 2012:
"We have history of free and fair elections conducted by NC-led governments.
Besides, the Maoists and the UML have already led the Government twice each."
The CPN-UML has already expressed support for the NC’s leadership of the proposed
NCG. On the other hand, the UCPN-M is willing to pass the Prime Ministership
to the NC only after the opposition agrees to a ‘political package’ on constitution
making. UCPN-M spokesperson Agni Sapkota argued that the ruling alliance sought
to stress the resolution of all outstanding issues, including the government
leadership, election date, number of election constituencies, appointment
of office-bearers in constitutional bodies, among others, in a ‘political
package’.
In an attempt to end this impasse,
exercising his powers under Article 38 (1) of the Interim Constitution, President
Ram Baran Yadav, on November 22, 2012, called the political parties to recommend
an appropriate proposal by November 29, 2012, for the selection of the PM,
as a prelude to the formation of the NCG. As expected, this deadline passed
without any conclusive result, and was again extended on November 30, 2012,
for another seven days (till December 6, 2012). A new six-day extension followed
the failure of the parties to meet this deadline as well. Given PM Bhattarai’s
description of the President’s November 22 initiative as being “against the
tenet and spirit of the Interim constitution”, it is certain that this deadline
will also pass without any result.
As SAIR
noted earlier, the lack of political stability has more to do with
intra-party rivalries in the major political formations, than with
any other single factor. While NC and CPN-UML leaders continue to
differ among themselves on the peace process, it is the intra-party
rivalry among the Maoists which has been the cause for the greatest
alarm. Indeed, after nearly a year of functioning as a ‘party within
the party’, Vice President Mohan Baidya aka Kiran engineered
a vertical
split on June 19, 2012, forming a new party to “accomplish
the remaining tasks of the people’s revolution.” The new party has
been christened ‘Communist Party of Nepal, Maoist’ (CPN-M). The
name is very similar to that of the Matrika Yadav-led CPN (Maoist),
though the new party’s Central Committee (CC) member Bharat Bam
points out that they have avoided any parenthesis in the name. Moreover,
in a demonstration of the lack of faith in the party leadership,
leaders attending the seventh plenum of the UCPN-M came down heavily
on party Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda and PM
Baburam Bhattarai. Further, on July 20, the party plenum turned
into a battlefield for a while after a "minor dispute"
broke out between the Prachanda and Bhattarai factions. Clearly,
all is not well within the UCPN-M even after the split.
Meanwhile, nine years
after putting the UCPN-M on its inventory of world-wide terrorist
organizations, the United States removed the party from the list,
arguing that the party had demonstrated a credible commitment to
pursuing the peace and reconciliation process in Nepal. The statement
issued by the US government in Washington D.C on September 6, 2012,
read: "The Department of State has revoked the designation
of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and its aliases as a Specially
Designated Global Terrorist entity under Executive Order 13224,
and as a “terrorist organization” from the Terrorist Exclusion List
(TEL) under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA)."
In another instance of the
growing division within the political classes in Nepal, the janajati
(indigenous) leaders, who defected from major political parties protesting
their stand against ethnic states, announced a new party under the chairmanship
of influential former CPN-UML vice chairman Ashok Rai on November 22, 2012.
The newly formed Federal Socialist Party, which has indigenous leaders in
its ranks, declared that it would work for the welfare of janajatis
and other communities who have historically been oppressed and marginalised.
The
growing disconnect between parties is leading to several clashes. According
to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP),
there have been at least eight occasions when the activists of the political
parties clashed with each other this year. In one such incident, UCPN-M and
NC cadres clashed in Sindhulimadi in Sindhudi District on October 11, 2012.
The confrontation ensued when NC cadres were staging a demonstration to protest
the manhandling of Taraun Dal, NC’s youth wing, central committee member Nabaraj
Shrestha, by UCPN-M cadres.
Nevertheless, there have been
some signs of political reconciliation as well. In a dramatic development,
on May 2, 2012, the major parties – NC, CPN-UML, CPN-Maoist and UDMF – had
agreed to form a NCG to ensure the passage of a Constitution by the May 27,
2012, deadline. These parties signed a five-point agreement on May 3, 2012,
to this effect. As per the agreement, all 48 Government ministers in the then
cabinet, representing coalition partners UCPN-M and UDMF, tendered their resignation
to PM Bhattarai on the same day. A new Cabinet, including two Ministers from
NC, was formed on May 5, 2012. However, despite signing the agreement, CPN-UML
did not join the Cabinet. Then, on May 24, 2012, the NC decided to pull out
of the Maoist-led 'consensus' Government, opposing the decision to extend
the CA tenure by three more months, bringing an end to the elusive quest for
consensus. However, this happened after these parties notched a breakthrough
on the new constitution, when they agreed, on May 15, 2012, on an 11-province
federal structure along with a mixed governance system.
Further, at least 20 Political
parties, mostly from the ruling coalition, announced the formation
of an alliance – the Federal Democratic Republican
Alliance (FDRA) – at a press conference in Kathmandu, on August
17, 2012. The Alliance declared that it would work towards ethnic-based
federalism and the promulgation of a new constitution through the
(now dissolved) CA. Similarly, on October 1, 2012, two Terai-based
parties and five Janajati political outfits joined forces
under a new alliance – the Federal Democratic Front (FDF). It was
announced that the objective of the new alliance was to find a way
out of the political deadlock, as other parties had failed to do
so.
Amidst this uncertain
political environment, the Bhattarai-led Government, which came
to power
on August 29, 2011, saw through the integration
of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) cadres. On November 21, 2012,
the Army Integration Special Committee (AISC) decided to create
4,171 vacancies in the Nepal Army in order to accommodate 1,462
PLA combatants opting for integration. The remaining 65 per cent
(2,709) of vacant posts are to be filled by recruiting candidates
through open competition, as per the seven-point
agreement signed by the parties on November 1, 2011. Of the
recommended new posts, 1,460 will be allocated to PLA combatants
who recently passed the exams for integration, including 71 officers’
posts. The AISC's term was extended by one month on November 20,
2012.
Though successful integration
has been a matter of great satisfaction, there are apprehensions over the
future path that may be adopted by the 7,365 trained and ideologically motivated
former PLA combatants who opted for the Voluntary Retirement Scheme (VRS).
It is argued that many of them opted for VRS because of the amount they were
offered – between NPR 500,000 and 800,000 – and they may return to violence
in future. Significantly, the Armed Police Force (APF), on April 21, 2012,
had arrested Binod Nepali, a former PLA fighter heading home following his
voluntary retirement, from Krishnapur Village Development Committee (VDC)
in Kanchanpur District, with six rounds of SLR ammunition. In another worrying
development related to integration, 4,008 former PLA combatants, who were
discharged in 2010 after being disqualified in the verification conducted
by the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN), are staging protests across
the country, demanding money on par with the amount provided to those choosing
VRS. On November 4, 2012, the Supreme Court, hearing a petition which described
the Cabinet’s decision to give each of them NPR 200,000 as compensation as
‘illegal’ and ‘unconstitutional’, passed a stay order.
Sporadic violence
continues to be recorded, with as many as 11 persons – including
10 civilians and one JTMM militant – killed in six separate incidents.
In the deadliest attack, on April 30, 2012, at least five people
died and another two dozen were injured in a bomb explosion at Ramanand
Chowk in Janakpur District. Police said the bomb, believed to be
an improvised explosive device (IED), went off while activists associated
with the Mithila Struggle Committee were organising a sit-in protest
demanding the creation of an autonomous Mithila State. Earlier,
on February 27, 2012, three persons were killed and seven others
were injured in an explosion outside the Nepal Oil Corporation's
central office at Babarmahal in Kathmandu, some 300 metres from
Singha Durbar, the Nepali Parliament. In a more daring attack, an
IED went off near Anada Higher Secondary School in Jalbire of Sindhupalchok
District, where Finance Minister Barsha Man Pun was attending a
programme organized by the UCPN-M on June 2, 2012. Apart from these,
Nepal witnessed 12 other explosions, while at least 11 other attempts
were foiled. Analysis of the data indicates that the Terai, which
hosts most of the 125 caste/ethnic groups reported in Nepal’s 2011
Census Report, is the hot bed of violence, even though some groups,
such as the Bhagat Singh led Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM),
have handed over their weapons to the Government following the signing
of the four-point deal in August; as well as the Samyukta Janatantrik
Tarai Mukti Morcha’s (SJTMM’s) decision to come over ground.
Worryingly, there are some
signs of growing unrest across the country. SATP recorded not less than 15
calls for bandhs (general shut down) through the current year. Significantly,
in a non-political rally held on November 10, 2012, over 30,000 people from
all over Kathmandu and nearby places assembled to demand a solution to the
political deadlock.
In the meantime, the Government
remains at loggerheads with the President ever since he issued the
first deadline on November 22, 2012, with Finance Minister Barshaman
Pun accusing the President of becoming increasingly ‘authoritarian’
and having ambitions similar to those of the dethroned King Gyanendra
Shah. This confrontation is occurring at a time when the Government
desperately needs the President’s cooperation, as Governance grinds
to a standstill, with endemic vacancies in various crucial services.
Thus, the Supreme Court has been left with just seven Judges out
of a sanctioned strength of 24 (permanent and temporary); similarly,
the Election Commission has only two of a five-member Board currently
in place. A range of other constitutional bodies are suffering comparable
deficits.
It remains to be seen whether
the President will approve the Government’s other ordinances, including the
one to amend the Judicial Council Act 2047(1990), to extend the tenure of
the five temporary judges of the Supreme Court who retired on December 5;
or is going to use these as a tool to pressurize the Bhattarai Government
to come to terms – to negotiate with the opposition to build a consensus and
form an NCG sooner than later. Whatever the outcome, the President is now
at the centre of power in Kathmandu, and the Government, having lost its constitutional
status, functions at his mercy. The period of uncertainty in Nepal appears
to have no visible end.
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Sustained
Consolidation
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League
(AL)-led Government, which came to power on January 6, 2009, has consolidated
its secular commitments through 2012, reining in Islamist extremist groups
and targeting the Left Wing Extremist (LWE) movement in the country. Overall
political stability has been established, though some untoward incidents have,
nonetheless, occurred; these have largely been instigated by the Jamaat-e-Islami
(JeI) and its student wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) with the principal
objective of disrupting the ongoing War Crimes (WC) Trials.
According to partial data collected
by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the country witnessed
18 terrorism/insurgency-related fatalities in total, including 17 militants
and one civilian, in 14 incidents of killing through 2012 (data till December
9). Three Islamist terrorism linked fatalities occurred, including one civilian
and two terrorists; in 2010, six such fatalities were recorded, including
three civilians and three militants. This is a significant contrast with 2005,
when Bangladesh experienced 35 Islamist terrorism linked fatalities, including
26 civilians and nine terrorists.
15 LWE-linked fatalities were
recorded in 2012. These included, 12 leaders – Purbo Banglar Communist Party
(PBCP) regional leaders – Khalilur Rahman, Mohammad Abdur Rashid, Rahat Ali,
Abdul Jalil, Nayeb Ali, Motaleb Hossain, Mostafizur Rahman, Anowar Hossain;
Gono Mukti Fauj (GMF, ‘People’s Freedom Army’) regional leaders Tofazzal Hossain,
Bidhan Chandra Biswas, Motaled Hossain; and Biplobi Communist Party (BCP)
leader Ohidul Islam Rajib – as well as three cadres of PBCP. There were 24
LWE fatalities, all of militants, in 2011; and 50 killings, including 46 militants,
three Security Forces (SFs) and one civilian in 2010. Pabna District stood
out as the principal LWE centre in 2012, with seven fatalities and eight incidents
of arrest in the District.
Meanwhile, SF personnel in
Bangladesh arrested 1,616 extremists belonging to various Islamist
groups such as JeI, ICS, Jama'at-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB),
Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), and Hizb-ut-Towhid (HT) in 2012 (data till
December 9), as against 578 such arrests in 2011; 958 in 2010; and
23 in 2009. Dhaka District proved to be the epicenter of Islamist
activities, with 32 incidents of arrest; followed by 20 such incidents
in Chittagong and 19 in Rajshahi District. A majority of the persons
arrested belonged to the JeI and ICS, as they took to the streets
demanding the release of their top leaders, who are being tried
for committing crimes against humanity during the 1971 Liberation
War. A total of 1,244 cadres belonging to the JeI-ICS were arrested
in 77 incidents throughout 2012 (data till December 9).
Major Islamist extremist arrests
included:
November 19, 2012: Police arrested
107 JeI-ICS cadres in five Districts, including Dhaka, on charges of attacking
law enforcers and for vandalism.
November 6, 2012: Police arrested
207 JeI-ICS leaders and cadres from different places of the country for attacking
the law enforcers and carrying out ‘destructive activities’.
October 21, 2012: Rapid Action
Battalion (RAB) arrested eight HT cadres from PTI Road in Barguna District.
August 12, 2012:
RAB arrested 35 cadres of HuT from a restaurant in Dhaka's Panthapath while
they were holding a “secret meeting” to plan “subversive activities” and a
“massive showdown” after the eid holidays.
July 19, 2012: RAB arrested
17 cadres of HuT from different parts of Dhaka while they were holding an
anti-government rally and distributing leaflets containing anti-state propaganda.
May 25, 2012: RAB arrested
four cadres of HuT, including its ‘regional commander’, in Shibganj sub-district
of Chapainawabganj District, while they were in a secret meeting preparing
to distribute books and leaflets.
March 5, 2012: RAB arrested
two leaders and a member of JMB, identified as Mohammad Asaduzzaman alias
Hazari, ‘chief’ of JMB Khulna divisional unit, Mohammad Wahab, ‘head’ of JMB
Savar zone and JMB member Anwar Hossain, from different parts of Dhaka City.
RAB also seized several JMB publications and leaflets from the possession
of the arrestees.
January 9, 2012: A close aide
of executed JMB leader Siddiqul Islam alias Bangla Bhai, identified
as Emdadul Haque Uzzal, was arrested in the Uttara area of Dhaka City.
Police also recovered from his possessions several publications of the banned
organisation and some books giving instructions on how to make bombs and operate
firearms such as AK-47s.
January 8, 2012: RAB arrested
Abu Talha Mohammad Fahim alias Bashar, the ‘finance wing chief’ of
the JMB, and his accomplice Mohammad Abdul Alim, from Achintola Bahrampur
village in Rajshahi District.
Meanwhile, a total of 34 LW
extremists including 14 leaders – PBCP ‘leaders’ Motalib Hossain, Jalem Uddin,
Mohammad Shahidul Islam, Korban Ali, Mozam Daktar, Ashkar Ali, Hasan Ali,
Sabuj Ali, Yadul Islam, and Nuhu Mia; GMF ‘leaders’ Zillur Rahman, Hanif Biswas
and Monirul Islam; and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Gano Bahini (JSD- Gano Bahini,
National Socialist Party-People’s Army) leader Saheb Joarder – were arrested
through 2012. By comparison, there were 66 such arrests in 2011.
The WC
Trials , which commenced after the constitution
of the International Crimes Tribunal – 1 (ICT-1) on March 25, 2010,
by the AL-led coalition Government, has indicted nine high-profile
political figures thus far, including seven JeI leaders – Nayeb-e-Ameer
(Deputy Chief) Delawar Hossain Sayeedi (on October 3, 2011);
former JeI chief Golam Azam (on May 13, 2012); present JeI chief
Motiur Rahman Nizami (on May 28, 2012); JeI General Secretary Ali
Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed (on June 21, 2012); JeI assistant secretaries
Mohammed Quamaruzzaman (on June 4, 2012); and Quader Mollah (on
May 28, 2012); and former JeI member Abul Kalam Azad alias
Bachchu Razakar (on November 4, 2012) as well as two Bangladesh
Nationalist Party (BNP) political figures and lawmakers – Salauddin
Quader Chowdhury (on April 4, 2012) and Abdul Alim (on June 11,
2012). A second Tribunal, ICT-2, was created on March 22, 2012,
to speed up the trial process.
JeI and ICS cadres have been
trying to disrupt the ongoing WC trials from the very beginning, since most
of the indicted leaders are from the party. The JeI-ICS combine carried out
a nine-day countrywide agitation programme, commencing November 5, 2012, to
protest the campaign of ‘repression’ against party leaders and workers, and
demanding the release of its top leaders. Many JeI and ICS cadres were arrested
in the aftermath of this and other agitations, for attacking the Police in
various places. Issuing a note of warning on November 14, 2012, Prime Minister
Sheikh Hasina declared, “Launching attacks on the Police by the JeI-ICS trying
to obstruct the trial of war criminals will only accelerate the trial proceedings.
The more the attacks the faster will be the pace of the trial. No jumping
and leaping will work. The trial of war criminals will be held on Bangladesh’s
soil.” Indeed, on November 25, 2012, Industries Minister Dilip Barua even
urged the Election Commission (EC) to cancel the registration of JeI as a
political party as it has failed to fulfil conditions set by the EC. The conclusion
of the WC trial before the next elections, due before the end of 2013, is
an urgent imperative. In case the BNP comes to power after the 2013 elections,
it is inevitable that a concerted effort to suppress the history of the atrocities
of 1971 will ensue, and the current WC Trials would be subverted.
Another alarming internal problem
is the constitutional provision of a Caretaker Government (CG), which was
introduced in the 1996. The AL-led Government, with the passage of the 15th
Constitutional Amendment Bill on June 30, 2012, overturned the 16-year-old
requirement that general elections be overseen by a non-partisan CG. The BNP-led
opposition alliance announced, on November 28, 2012, that they would blockade
roads countrywide on December 9, to press for a return of the CG to oversee
the next parliamentary polls. Indeed, on December 9, 2012, violent clashes,
among BNP-backed blockaders, Police and AL workers, were reported from across
the country, including Sirajganj, Dhaka, Narayanganj, Chittagong, Rajshahi,
Khulna, Lalmonirhat and Laxmipur Districts. At least two persons were killed
(one each in Sirajganj and Dhaka towns) and more than 290 people, including
40 Policemen, were injured during the clashes. Over 70 homemade bombs went
off, around 50 vehicles, including five Police vehicles, were set ablaze and
150 others were vandalised.
The Government’s stand, however,
is that the it has strengthened the EC so that it could perform its duty properly,
and all 6,000 different kinds of elections held under the present Government
over the last four years were free and fair and there were no complaints against
any of the polls. The Government stated that all future elections would also
be held peacefully and fairly.
Bilateral relations
between India and Bangladesh came into sharp focus through 2012,
and have witnessed further improvements. The first meeting of the
Joint Consultative Commission (JCC) was held in New Delhi, India
on May 7, co-chaired by Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dipu Moni and
the then Indian counterpart S.M. Krishna. The Joint Statement issued
after the meeting noted that "the legal framework for bilateral
security cooperation would be completed with the signing of the
extradition treaty.” In a recent development, a joint statement
released after the meeting between Union Minister of Home Affairs
(UMHA) Sushilkumar Shinde and his Bangladesh counterpart M. K. Alamgir
in New Delhi on December 4, 2012, stated that both sides have agreed
that the Extradition Treaty will be finalized and signed in January
2013 during the proposed visit of UMHA to Dhaka. According to the
statement, both sides agreed not to resort to firing unless fired
upon or attacked by terrorists or armed criminals.
During the Home Minister
level talks, Bangladesh Home Minister Shahara Khatun stated, on
February 24, 2012, that United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA)
leader Anup Chetia, currently lodged in a Dhaka jail, would be handed
over to India by Bangladesh immediately after the legal process
for his deportation was completed. As a result of co-ordinated border
plans between the two sides, Bangladesh RAB arrested one of
the top rebel leaders of National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT)
from Khagrachhari District of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), on February
16. Meanwhile, Bangladesh, on July 30, handed over Champion R. Sangma,
co-founder and ‘chairman’ of the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA),
to India. Further, from September 19, the Border Guards of Bangladesh
(BGB) and RAB launched an intensive operation to track down ULFA
(Anti-talks) leader Drishti Rajkhowa. The Sheikh Hasina Government’s
strong steps to crack down on terrorist elements on its soil have
undoubtedly opened up prospects of increasing cooperation in other
areas, between India and Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, during the 13th
Home Secretary-level talks between Bangladesh and India, held on October
16-17, 2012, at Dhaka, discussions were held on the implementation of Mutual
Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, Agreement on Transfer of Sentenced Persons
and Combating Terrorism, Agreement on Organized Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking,
ratification of Land Boundary Agreement (LBA)-1974 by the Government of India
and protocol signed in 2011. Both sides agreed to allow developmental work,
including the construction of Integrated Check Posts (ICPs) and Land Custom
Stations (LCSs), within 150 yards of the zero line. They also agreed to constitute
a high-level team to monitor the development of border infrastructure.
Dhaka has also taken a number
of visible measures in 2012 to curb both Islamist and left wing extremism.
The Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Act, 2012, was passed in Parliament on February
16, 2012. According to the Act, the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit
can provide Financial Intelligence Units in other countries with information
relating to the financing of terrorism, when so required or requested. The
Act also included provisions relating to atomic, chemical and biological weapons;
to the arms and ammunition used for terrorist activities; and interventions
by terrorist and subversive organisations in the financial sector. Earlier,
on March 13, 2012, the Speedy Trial Tribunal – 4 sentenced JMB leader Mamunur
Rashid alias Zahid to death for detonating a bomb in the Gazipur District
Police Superintendent's office in February 20, 2009, in which 16 people were
injured.
In another landmark judgement
on March 18, 2012, a Dhaka court indicted BNP chief Begum Khaleda Zia's "fugitive"
elder son Tarique Rahman and 29 others on charges relating to the August 21,
2004, grenade attack on an Awami League rally, finally formally launching
the trial for the attack.
Bangladesh’s achievements
on the counter-terrorism and internal security fronts, as well as in improving
relations with India, through 2012, have been remarkable. Nevertheless, a
note of caution remains to be sounded as the residual capacities of the JeI-ICS
are still significant, and their alliance with the BNP remains sound. Against
this backdrop, the BNP’s call to start fresh protests from December to bring
back the CG system will be the litmus test for the Sheikh Hasina Government.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
December 3-9,
2012
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Meghalaya
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
Jharkhand
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Maharashtra
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Total (INDIA)
|
5
|
1
|
7
|
13
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
8
|
FATA
|
1
|
7
|
14
|
22
|
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
|
6
|
2
|
0
|
8
|
Sindh
|
28
|
4
|
1
|
33
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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BANGLADESH
JeI
a terrorist party, asserts
Information Minister Hasanul
Haque Inu: Branding
Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) as
a terrorist and militant
party, Information Minister
Hasanul Haque Inu on December
7 said it was the people
who would judge whether
the party would remain or
not in Bangladesh's democracy.
Inu, the Jatiya Samajtantrik
Dal (JSD) President, said,
"They (Jamaat) want to provide
compensation for the vandalism
to an American embassy car.
But who will provide compensation
for the damaged vehicles
of citizens".
The Daily Star,
December 8, 2012.
INDIA
Terror
infrastructure in PoK and
Pakistan still intact, says
Union MoS for Home Affairs
Mullappally Ramachandran:
In a written reply to
the Lok Sabha (Lower House
of Parliament) Union Minister
of State for Home Affairs
(MoS) Mullappally Ramachandran
said that there are about
2,500 militants in various
camps in Pakistan and Pakistan
occupied Kashmir (PoK) and
that the terror infrastructure
in Pakistan or PoK still
remains intact. The reply
further reads, "Reports
indicate that there are
42 militant camps functioning
across the borders, 25 in
PoK and 17 in Pakistan with
about 2,500 militants".
The Hindu,
December 5, 2012.
Harkat-ul-Ansar
resumes operations in J&K
under a new name of Jabbar-ul-Mujahideen,
say sources: Drawing
its cadres from Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad
(JeM) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen
(HM), the Harkat-ul-Ansar
(HuA) has resumed operations
in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)
under a new name of Jabbar-ul-Mujahideen.
Sources said that the top
five 'commanders' have already
infiltrated into J&K through
Samba sector (Samba District)
in July this year. Shah
Chand Khan is the 'commander-in-chief'
of the outfit in J&K and
Badshah Khan, Noor Mohammad,
Abdul Razak and Muneer Khan
are his associates.
Daily Excelsior,
December 5, 2012.
CPI-Maoist's front organizations
building nexus with Islamic
groups in West Bengal, says
Union MoS for Home Affairs
RPN Singh: Union Minister
of State for Home Affairs
RPN Singh said in Rajya
Sabha (Upper House of Indian
Parliament) on December
5 that the front organisations
of Communist Party of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist) have developed
close nexus with certain
fundamentalist Islamic groups
in West Bengal and forged
common platform on certain
issues. He, however, said
no concrete inputs are available
to indicate that they have
forged direct ties with
Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) of Pakistan.
Business Standard,
December 6, 2012.
Maoists
'carve out new zone' on
Maharashtra-MP border, says
report: The Communist
Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)
has carved out a new zone
for their operations comprising
Gadchiroli, Gondia and Balaghat
areas in Maharashtra and
Madhya Pradesh. According
to security officials, they
have renamed the area as
North Gadchiroli Gondia
Balaghat Divisional Committee
and are now actively recruiting.
The Maoists have also appointed
a separate leader, Pahad
Singh, to look after the
unit. The officials are
yet to identify all the
Maoists behind the revival
plan.
Indian Express,
December 10, 2012.
NEPAL
President
Ram Baran Yadav extends
deadline for the formation
of NCG by six days:
President Ram Baran Yadav
on December 7 extended the
deadline for the formation
of consensus Government
by six days. The earlier
fixed deadline had expired
on December 6.
Republica,
December 8, 2012.
PAKISTAN
14
militants and seven SFs
among 22 persons killed
during the week in FATA:
A US drone attack killed
four militants, including
a senior al Qaeda 'commander'
Muhammad Ahmed Almansoor,
in Tappi village in the
North Waziristan Agency
(NWA) of Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA) on December
9.
Four
suspected militants were
killed when a US drone fired
two missiles at a house
in Mir Ali tehsil (revenue
unit) of NWA on December
6.
At
least six militants were
killed and eight others
sustained bullet injuries
when Lashkar-e-Islam (LI)
militants attacked pro-government
lashkar (militia),
Tauheedul Islam (TI), post
in Bukar area of Zakhakhel
in Khyber Agency on December
5.
Three
soldiers were killed and
20 others sustained injuries
in a suicide blast near
the Ziari Noor Camp on the
Angoor Adda Road in South
Waziristan Agency Daily
Times;
Dawn;
The
News;
Tribune;
Central
Asia Online;
The
Nation;
The
Frontier Post;
Pakistan
Observer,
December
4-10, 2012.
28
civilians and four SFs among
33 persons killed during
the week in Sindh: Five
persons were killed in separate
incidents of violence in
Karachi, the provincial
capital of Sindh, on December
9.
Three
persons, including two Muttahida
Qaumi Movement (MQM) activists,
were killed in incidents
of target killing in Karachi
on December 8.
Seven
persons were killed and
at least four others injured
in Karachi on December 7.
Two
MQM activists and a Police
Constable were among five
persons killed in separate
incidents of violence in
different parts of Karachi
on December 6.
At
least four persons, including
two MQM activists and a
Pakistan Sunni Tehreek (PST)
cadre, were killed in separate
acts of violence in Karachi
on December 4.
At
least nine persons, including
four activists of the MQM
and a Policeman, were killed
in separate incidents of
target killing in Karachi
on December 3. Daily
Times;
Dawn;
The
News;
Tribune;
Central
Asia Online;
The
Nation;
The
Frontier Post;
Pakistan
Today;
Pakistan
Observer,
December
4-10, 2012.
FIA
presents LeT terror camps'
photos among evidences given
to Rawalpindi ATC hearing
26/11 case: The Federal
Investigation Agency (FIA)
on December 8 presented
the photographs of Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT) training camps in
Sindh and motorboats used
by the 10 terrorists who
attacked Mumbai on November
26, 2008 (26/11) to an anti-terrorism
court conducting the trial
of seven Pakistanis charged
with involvement in strikes.
The motorboats and other
items, currently in the
custody of the FIA custody,
were recovered in January
2009. The
Hindu,
December 9, 2012.
TTP
sets up page on Facebook
to recruit 'enthusiasts':The
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) has set up a page
on Facebook to recruit
'enthusiasts' to write for
a quarterly magazine and
to edit video, spokesman
Ehsanullah Ehsan confirmed
on December 7. The Umar
Media TTP page, which
has more than 270 likes,
appears to have been created
in September and have just
a handful of messages written
in English. "Umar Media
is proud to announce online
jobs opportunities (sic),"
says the first post on the
networking website, written
on October 25 Daily
Times,December
8, 2012.
TTP
set to get a 'moderate'
chief, says report:The
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) is preparing for a
leadership change which
could see more moderate
deputy leader of the group,
Waliur Rehman, likely to
succeed Hakimullah Mehsud,
whose extreme violence has
alienated enough of his
fighters to significantly
weaken him, military sources
told Reuters. An unnamed
senior Pakistan Army official
based in the South Waziristan
Agency of Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA), the
group's stronghold, said
that Mehsud, who led the
TTP for the last three years,
has lost operational control
of the movement and the
trust of his fighters. Daily
Times,
December
7, 2012.
Conviction
rate of terrorists in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa is only four
percent':The Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) has set up
a page on Facebook to recruit
'enthusiasts' to write for
a quarterly magazine and
to edit video, spokesman
Ehsanullah Ehsan confirmed
on December 7. The Umar
Media TTP page, which has
more than 270 likes, appears
to have been created in
September and have just
a handful of messages written
in English. "Umar Media
is proud to announce online
jobs opportunities (sic),"
says the first post on the
networking website, written
on October 25 Daily
Times,
December 5, 2012.
SRI LANKA
Army
withdraws its personnel
from the Jaffna University
area: The Army has withdrawn
its personnel serving the
areas near the Jaffna University
(Jaffna District) in response
to a request made by the
Vice Chancellor (VC) of
the University. As mentioned
earlier, Police had arrested
four students on suspicion
of terrorist activities.
ColomboPage,
December 7, 2012.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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