SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 11, No. 11, September 17, 2012

PAKISTAN

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Punjab: The Core at Risk
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 6, 2012, three militants on a mission to target a nuclear power plant in Ali Khel area of Bhakkar District, which borders Dera Ghazi Khan (DGK) District in Punjab Province, were killed in a premature blast. Significantly, on September 5, 2012, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Agency had reportedly intercepted a telephone call from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), tapping into a conversation regarding finalisation of the strategy for attacks on nuclear installations in DGK District. DGK District Police Chief Chaudhry Saleem noted, “There have been threats to all installations, including the Dera Ghazi Khan nuclear site, in the current law and order situation of the country.” The military and Punjab Police had informed the media that the nature of threat at the nuclear installation was “serious”, with an “80 per cent chance of occurrence”.

An unnamed high ranking military officer serving at the installation was quoted as stating, “Dera Ghazi Khan houses one of the largest nuclear facilities in the country and has faced the first ever serious security threat from the TTP.” Further, a Lahore Police Officer disclosed that a circular issued by the Punjab Police Chief’s Office directed the Police Chiefs of all 36 Districts in the Province to beef up security around sensitive installations due to “credible reports of terrorist attacks.”

There have been at least three prior attacks, two in 2007 and one in 2008, near nuclear facilities in Punjab.

November 1, 2007: Militants attacked a nuclear missile storage facility in the Sargodha District of the province, killing seven officers and three civilians.

December 10, 2007: A suicide bomber exploded his car targeting a Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) bus carrying Air Force employees’ children at a military base at Kamra – the Air Weapons Complex at Kamra devoted to the development of air-delivered nuclear weapons. At least eight persons were killed in the attack.

August 21, 2008: Two TTP suicide bombers blew themselves up at the main nuclear facility – the Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex, targeting the Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF), which operates under the Defense Production Division in Pakistan’s Ministry of Defense, and is responsible for the production and manufacturing of conventional weapons, including arms and ammunitions. At least 70 persons were killed in this attack.

Despite Islamabad’s continuous assertions of its ‘secured’ nuclear facilities, terrorist formations have issued repeated threats, and have subsequently attacked nuclear facilities across Pakistan. The threat of nuclear materials falling under the control of the TTP or its other allies has put the security of nuclear weapons in Pakistan at high risk. Since its inception in 2007, the TTP has successfully launched attacks against the Government and military installations close to nuclear sites, or housing nuclear weapons.  A total of 22 major attacks have been carried out by the terrorists on major security installations across Pakistan.

According to Centre for Nuclear Studies (CNS), among the 14 ‘Selected Pakistani Nuclear Facilities’, 11 are in Punjab, including DGK, Islamabad and Lahore;  and one each in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh. The three prior attacks at the facilities suggest that the installations in Punjab principally remain at a higher risk. Other installations are, however, also on the terrorist radar, as extremists have a strong presence in these areas as well.

Punjab alone has recorded at least seven such attacks since 2007, with 99 fatalities. Significantly, the latest threat came after the Minhas Air Base attack on August 16, 2012, which killed two Pakistan Air Force (PAF) personnel, and destroyed a surveillance aircraft. Fresh evidence gathered by investigators revealed that TTP had contacts with security personnel stationed at the Air Base, suggesting clear collusion between the terrorists and elements within the security establishment. Such collusion was also very much in evidence in the attack on the Pakistan Naval Station (PNS) Mehran Air Base on May 22, 2011, in which at least 18 military personnel were killed. Pakistan had put its nuclear installations on a high security alert in the wake of the Mehran attack. This possibility of collusion on the part of elements within the Pakistan Army, ISI, and other Forces, enormously raises the risk of terrorist access to nuclear materials.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, at least 79 persons, including 36 civilians, 28 Security Forces (SF) personnel and15 militants have been killed in terrorist-linked violence in the Punjab Province in the first eight months of the current year, as against 119 persons, including 105 civilians, 11 SF personnel and 3 militants, during the corresponding period of 2011.  Five persons have already been killed in September 2012 (data till September 16, 2012).

Meanwhile, on September 4, 2012, the Federal Ministry of Interior warned authorities in Punjab that at least 16 TTP militants were planning to carry out attacks on targets in Islamabad and Rawalpindi Districts, including the Adiala Jail, where Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) militants, including operational ‘commander’ Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, charged with involvement in the November 26, 2008, (26/11) Mumbai (Maharashtra, India) terror attacks, which claimed 166 lives, are being held. The ‘secret’ report circulated by the National Crisis Management Cell (NCMC) of the Interior Ministry noted that Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi was likely to be the “main target” of the militants who intend to “free their accomplices in a prison break”.

The threat is potent as, on April 15, 2012, more that 200 armed TTP militants had raided the Central Jail in Bannu District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in a pre-dawn attack, releasing 384 prisoners, including 20 inmates facing death sentences. There is now a pervasive sense of fearlessness among the terrorist formations, and a sense of pride and exhilaration after every successful attack, among those claiming responsibility.

Soon after the Bannu jailbreak, the TTP spokesperson, Asimullah Mehsud declared, “The purpose was to free some of our men... We attacked with some 150 fidayeen and took over the area for more than two hours.” Out of the 384 prisoners who escaped, the provincial Home Department confirmed the voluntary return of 103 after three days of the incident. The Police also arrested another more than two dozen escaped prisoners during separate search operations. Three prisoners, one of whom was identified as Ayub Khan (70), died in the Frontier Region, Bannu, due to hunger and thirst. The remaining militants, claimed a TTP pamphlet, were taken away to Mir Ali tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan Agency (NWA) in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). In the pamphlet the TTP ‘commander’ Hafiz Gul Bahadur urged the residents of NWA, “Do not let them (Security Forces) operate from North Waziristan. Resistance will be put up if Security Forces try moving into the Agency...”

Further, the NCMC’s ‘secret’ report also stated that the TTP militants, who are “highly trained and reported to be currently residing in Attock” in Punjab, were expected to simultaneously target Government installations and abduct some high-profile people in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

The two cities are seen as a convenient source for generating funds for the TTP. On September 2, 2012, an explosive laden device with the inscription “first gift from TTP” was discovered at a farm house owned by a businessman, Haji Sahib Khan, on the outskirts of Westridge Police Station in Rawalpindi District. Khan had been receiving death threats on his cell phone. A text message sent by the TTP read, “You are under observation and on our hit list.”

The abduction-extortion network in Punjab was exposed after the high profile arrest of two TTP militants who were running the operation in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Investigations discovered, further, that the leader of the TTP’s Islamabad-Pindi ‘network’ was operating from the United Kingdom.  An extortionist belonging to the TTP, identified as Mohsin, disclosed that he collected money in the two cities, and handed it over to the operational head of TTP in Rawalpindi, Mohammad Asif. Asif’s arrest and further disclosures revealed that the extorted money was transferred to Mudassar Shaheen, who resided in Blackburn, located 27 miles north-northwest of the city of Manchester in UK, who was an active member of TTP.

TTP’s growing and ominous presence and threats in Punjab come in the wake of an impending military operation in NWA, which Islamabad had been delaying. NWA provides a safe haven to militants belonging to the Haqqani Network, Afghan Taliban and the TTP, who use the territory to launch attacks against the US and coalition troops in Afghanistan. Taking advantage of the delay in operations in NWA, the TTP decided to attack principal military installations, nuclear power plants and Central Jails in Punjab and other Provinces, to divert attention and discourage any attempt to launch effective operations in the region.

The extremist presence in Punjab is further seen in the overwhelming structure of religious fundamentalist formations, with their anti-India and anti-West agendas, and the circulation of anti-minorities and sectarian hate literature. Public gatherings led by religious ideologues are a commonplace in Punjab and have become the major source of militant recruitment. Free movement and unhindered hate propaganda by outfits like the Jama’at-ud-Dawa (JuD) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) have expanded their militant operations and recruitment in the region. In addition to JuD, several other sectarian and terrorist groupings with headquarters in Punjab work in close collaboration with the TTP and al Qaeda.

Over decades of active support to terrorism, and a rising anarchy on its own soil, the core of Pakistan’s power in the Punjab has believed itself to be unassailable. That sense of invincibility, however, is increasingly a thing of the past. Both Pakistan’s Army and the Province on which its power principally rests are now looking increasingly vulnerable, even as terrorist successes and confidence grow. At the same time, paralysis appears to have gripped all the major institutions of the country, and there is little evidence of any initiative of effective resistance.

INDIA

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Meghalaya: Troubled Hills
Veronica Khangchian
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 14, 2012, a senior militant leader (‘area commander’ of the West Khasi Hills District) of the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) was shot dead in an encounter with Special Weapons And Tactics (SWAT) commandos of Williamnagar and Combat Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) units of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), deep in the jungles of Durama Hills (East Garo Hills). The militant leader, identified as Tusol T. Sangma alias Mikjim, was inside the main camp, which was being used as the headquarters of GNLA’s ‘commander-in-chief’ Sohan D. Shira, when the commandos attacked at around 11 am, resulting in a long gun battle over several hours. A huge cache of arms, including one Heckle-Koch (HK) rifle with magazine, AK magazines, grenades, pistols and 6 wireless sets, were recovered from the camp area. Williamnagar Police are now looking for the body of another GNLA militant, identified as Pedil, who is believed to have been hit during the attack on the camp. Police sources suspect that the militant, who was keeping guard on the camp and was injured during the encounter, was possibly dead.

Earlier, in a gun battle on April 5, 2012, Security Forces (SFs) killed four GNLA militants, who were involved in setting ablaze 14 coal-laden trucks on March 31, 2012, at Mongpangro near Keragalram village near Mendipathar in East Garo Hills.

SFs, however, have had only a few successes against the GNLA. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, SFs have, so far, only managed to eliminate 10 militants in Meghalaya this year, of which seven belonged to GNLA, out of a total of 33 fatalities, including 21 civilians and two SFs, (data till September 16, 2012).

Otherwise peaceful, Meghalaya is now continuously plagued by the activities of GNLA since its formation. In late 2009, Champion R. Sangma, the group’s ‘chairman’, floated the GNLA, along with former A’chik National Volunteer Council (ANVC) leader Sohan D. Shira, the present ‘commander-in-chief’. The GNLA is purportedly fighting for a 'sovereign Garoland' in the Western areas of Meghalaya, and operates in the four districts of Garo Hills Districts, in the Western part of Meghalaya, and also the coal-rich borders of West Khasi Hills bordering South Garo Hills. The State has a total of eight Districts

Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma, on August 15, 2012, stated that GNLA’s activities continued to be a cause of serious concern. Even after the arrest of GNLA ‘chairman’ Champion Sangma on July 30, 2012, there has been no slowdown in their criminal activities. The GNLA has been involved in a number of incidents, including killings, encounters with SFs, abduction and extortion.

In the latest of a series of such incidents, on August 7, 2012, a group of four heavily armed GNLA cadres shot dead a businessman, identified as Nitesh Shah, at point blank range in the North Garo Hills District, in retaliation for his non-compliance to an extortion demand.

Earlier, on July 19, 2012, GNLA militants killed a school teacher, Momin, in Resubelpara in East Garo Hills District, on the grounds of his close links with Government authorities. Sources indicate that Momin was also a successful rubber plantation owner, and was envied by many, including GNLA militants, who wanted a portion of the revenues from the plantation.

On July 20, 2012, GNLA militants executed two civilians, including a school teacher, at Rongrong village in East Garo Hills District, and dumped their bodies on the village road. Both the victims had their hands tied and were tortured before they were killed. They also left behind a memory card which contained a graphic video of their torture. They had been abducted by the militants a few days before the murder. The militants accused the two of extorting money in GNLA’s name.

GNLA also killed two civilians, a surrendered cadre of the outfit, identified as Sonaram Sangma, in South Garo Hills, on June 15, 2012, and a secretary of the Village Defence Party (VDP), Sengkan K. Sangma, alleging that he was a Police informer, in East Garo Hills, on June 14, 2012.

The GNLA also killed a CRPF Sub-inspector and injured a Constable in East Garo Hills, even as the SFs neutralized a rebel camp in the Durama Hills range, on July 24, 2012.

The GNLA was also involved in at least seven of 13 recorded incidents of abduction in the State. In the most recent case, the son of a coal exporter to Bangladesh, identified as Konu Mahanta, was abducted by eight armed GNLA militants on August 28, 2012, from the Chokpot area in South Garo Hills. The GNLA had earlier slapped extortion demands, ranging from INR 500,000 to INR 10 million, on petrol pump owners, coal dealers and businessmen.

The SFs, meanwhile, have managed to arrest at least 40 GNLA cadres, including some leaders, in 2012. The most significant of these were:

August 9: SFs arrested five GNLA militants while they were extorting money from a person at Resubelpara in North Garo Hills District. One of the arrested was the main accused in the July 19 killing of the school teacher Momin.

July 30: SFs arrested GNLA ‘chairman’ Champion R. Sangma from the Umkrem-Pyrdiwah area in the East Khasi Hills District, on the Indo-Bangladesh border, after he was ‘pushed back’ by Bangladesh.

June 19: Police arrested the chief arms procurer of the GNLA, Jackuish A. Sangma from Tura, District headquarters of West Garo Hills, when he was handing out an extortion note to a businessman. A foreign-made revolver and six rounds of live ammunition, four GNLA extortion notes, and seals were seized from Jackuish’s possession. Jackuish had been under a Police scanner for several months since his release on bail from the Shillong District jail, where he was under detention for his involvement in the procurement of arms and ammunition for the GNLA. The Police said Jackuish had procured arms and ammunition from suppliers based in Dimapur in Nagaland, bordering Assam. Jackuish had been arrested on November 23, 2011.

June 2: SFs arrested four GNLA militants, including Pintu Marak, brother-in-law of GNLA 'commander-in-chief' Sohan D. Shira, and two Nagaland-based arms smugglers from the Guwahati (Assam) city's Tetelia area. A huge consignment of arms and ammunition, including one AK 74 assault rifle, one Berretta .32 pistol, 25 shells, 400 rounds of AK 74 ammunition, 500 rounds of 9 mm pistol ammunition, and 20 rounds of ammunition of the .32 Berretta pistol, was seized from them. The militants confessed that the consignment was procured from Myanmar and was being taken to Garo Hills through Nagaland and Assam. The weapons were concealed in secret chambers built inside the vehicle in which they were travelling.

Of 10 militants who surrendered in Meghalaya this year, six belong to GNLA.

A June 4, 2012, report stated that GNLA had emerged as one of the biggest procurers of arms in Meghalaya, using Guwahati city as their main transit route. The outfit, which has created a nexus with the Anti-Talks Faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-ATF) in the recent past, is now in close contact with many Nagaland-and Manipur-based militant outfits, mainly the National Socialist Council of Nagaland—Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and the Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA), as well as gunrunners from Myanmar. The outfit has also forged an alliance with the Bangladesh-based rebel A’chik Special Dragon Party.

Police sources state that the ULFA-ATF has been providing help to the GNLA for its own benefits. Senior member of ULFA-ATF, Drishti Rajkhowa, is now believed to be hiding with the GNLA in the Garo Hills jungles. Rajkhowa also visits Bangladesh from time to time, taking advantage of the porous international border. Sources indicate that ULFA-ATF is helping GNLA maintain an open corridor open for movement into hideouts in Bangladesh. ULFA-ATF had earlier extended help to the ANVC, but after that outfit came over ground in 2004, ULFA-ATF started supporting GNLA.

SF sources also indicate that ULFA leaders, hiding in shelters provided by GNLA in Garo Hills, have been coordinating the outfit’s extortion operations in Assam’s western Districts, targeting officials of the Rural Development Department posted in blocks, as well as officials from the Transport, Food and Civil Supplies Departments. ULFA uses linkmen to collect money from extortion targets, who are contacted over phone by ULFA leaders based in the Garo Hills.

Assam Police is now reportedly looking for much better coordination with Meghalaya Police, to launch an effective assault on the ULFA-GNLA network in the Garo Hills area, even as a senior Assam Police official in the rank of Additional Director General has been put in charge of coordination of operations against the ULFA in the western Assam Districts of Goalpara and Dhubri, bordering the Garo Hills area in Meghalaya.

The Meghalaya Police has a total strength of 10,064 personnel, yielding a strong Police-population ratio of 391 per 100,000. The Assam Police has a total strength of 51,729 personnel, with a police-population ratio of 169 per 100,000.

Significantly, on July 23, 2012, SFs neutralized a joint GNLA-ULFA training camp in the East Garo Hills region, at Memanang in the foothills of Durama, after a fierce gun battle between the rebels and a joint team of Meghalaya's SWAT and CoBRA commandos. The Durama Hills range is a vast, densely forested area which has been used by GNLA and ULFA rebels as a safe haven. Sohan D. Shira, chief of the GNLA's military wing, controls his group from Durama.

Earlier developments in Bangladesh had significantly impacted the activities of the militant groups. According to a September 14, 2012 report, India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) have now shifted focus to the Sherpur District in Bangladesh to neutralize remaining GNLA and ULFA cadres who are holing up in the area. The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) of Bangladesh is also engaged in search operations, a senior BSF official indicated. The BSF had handed over photos of the cadres and information on certain areas of Sherpur where the GNLA-ULFA cadres meet. According to the BSF officials, the ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ of ULFA, Drishti Rajkhowa, is married to a Garo woman residing at Sherpur, and she facilitates the gathering of both GNLA and ULFA cadres there. However, there are no full-fledged militant camps in Sherpur, and cadres hide out in thatched houses belonging to sympathizers. The border Forces of both India and Bangladesh are looking to clear Northeast militants from Bangladeshi soil after past operations yielded major successes, resulting in the arrest of top militant leaders, including the GNLA ‘chairman’ Champion Sangma and ULFA ‘chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa (2009), among others.

Despite the arrest of the GNLA ‘chairman’, it is business as usual for the outfit, with its ‘commander-in-chief’ taking control. Since Sohan is from the armed wing of the militant outfit, he has more control over matters related to the organisation, unlike Champion, who controlled only the political wing. At present Sohan controls nearly 200 GNLA cadres, including some overground workers.

The Government meanwhile has shown no interest in holding talks with the outfit on the demand of separate Garoland in western part of the State, despite an offer of talks by GNLA. An August 9 report indicated that the GNLA had announced its willingness to end its armed struggle if the Central Government was ready to accept its demand for creation of a separate State for the Garos, carved out of the present State of Meghalaya. Bikdot Nikjang Marak, ‘political secretary’ of GNLA, stated, “We will end all armed struggle if Delhi listens to our peoples’ demand for a separate Garoland State under Article 3 of the Indian Constitution. We do not want a separate country but wish to remain within India.” He said that Garos continue to live under the shadow of the Khasis who rule Meghalaya, and there was a long-standing demand by people of this part of the State for a separate identity. The arrested GNLA ‘chairman’ had also reportedly indicated that he was ready to initiate ‘peace talks’ with the Government.

Reiterating his stand of going all out against GNLA, Chief Minister Mukul Sangma, on May 8, 2012, warned its cadres to lay down arms, even as he assured attractive packages for those who came forward to surrender. He made it clear that the Government had no intention of suspending ongoing operations against GNLA, and also said there was no question of holding dialogue with the GNLA, which was led by a person who is already a deserter. The Chief Minister argued that Sohan D. Shira, who was leading the GNLA after deserting the ANVC, had, on several occasions, cheated the Government. Shira deserted an ANVC designated camp on July 24, 2007. He surrendered before the then Chief Minister D.D. Lapang, on August 25, 2007. However, he quickly returned underground, teaming up with Champion R. Sangma, to form the GNLA towards the end of 2009.

With its rising activities and growing linkage with ULFA-ATF, collaborating in and outside the State as well as abroad, the GNLA continues to threaten peace in Meghalaya, despite operational successes against the group.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Left-wing Extremism

INDIA

Arunachal Pradesh

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Bihar

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)