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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 10, No. 50, June 18, 2012

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT


PAKISTAN
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Unleashing the Dogs of War
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
The confrontation that we are calling for with the apostate regimes does not know Socratic debates... Platonic ideals... or Aristotelian diplomacy. But it knows the dialogue of bullets, the ideals of assassination, bombing and destruction, and the diplomacy of the cannon and machine gun.

Islamic Governments have never and will never be established through peaceful solutions and cooperative councils. They are established as they [always] have been by pen and gun; by word and bullet, by tongue and teeth.

The al Qaeda manual details its ‘humble commands’ to a generation of Muslim youth fighting for “Allah’s cause” of a jihadist victory over the West, apostates and godless regimes.

In its latest ‘humble command’ al Qaeda has declared a jihad against the Pakistan Army, justifying it as a war against a Force that sides with the United States (US) – the enemy of Islam. According to June 14, 2012 reports, Pakistan’s leading Intelligence agencies, including Military Intelligence, alerted the Interior Ministry that al Qaeda now plans terrorist attacks targeting Security Forces (SFs), as well as a range of soft targets in the big cities. Vital installations in all the four Provinces, and in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), have been put on high alert, as the country gears up to confront this fresh threat. A senior Intelligence officer reportedly stated, "In order to accomplish their nefarious designs, al Qaeda has prepared its strategy to target Pakistan Army through terrorist attacks, assassination of senior officers through targeted killings and executing Pakistan Army personnel for collaborating with the US once US led NATO troops withdraw from Afghanistan."

This latest development follows the June 4, 2012, killing of Abu Yahya al-Libi, second in command to Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s current chief, in a US drone strike in the Mir Ali area of the North Waziristan Agency (NWA) of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The Long War Journal, in an interview with two US Intelligence Officials who were involved in targeting al Qaeda and other militants in Pakistan, reported that the officials initially thought al Libi was among the 15 militants killed in the Mir Ali attack. Later, a Pakistani Intelligence official, while talking to the media, asserted that his unit "intercepted some conversations between militants" and that "they were talking about the death of a 'sheikh'... who is assumed to be al Libi”. Local Pakistanis in the Mir Ali area claim that "militants" quickly cordoned off the areas and conducted rescue operations. Some local tribesmen said that al Libi was wounded and died at a private hospital in the area. White House spokesman Jay Carney, on June 6, 2012, stated: “Our government has been able to confirm al-Libi’s death.”

Two websites, Ansar and Alfidaa, linked to al Qaeda, however, suggested, on June 10, 2012, that al Libi remains alive.

Al Libi was “among al Qaeda's most experienced and versatile leaders.” Terrorism expert Jarret Brachman, in 2009, described him as "masterful at justifying savage acts of terrorism with esoteric religious arguments". A new video featuring al Libi was posted online soon after the June 10 announcement. In the video, assumed to be recorded in November 2011, al Libi denounced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a tyrant and urged the Syrian people to continue fighting, and calls on fighters in Iraq, Jordan and Turkey “to rise to help their brothers and sacrifice themselves for them.” This is the basic idea on which the al Qaeda ideology thrives: the call for a unified “Muslim Brotherhood” creates a powerful imagery in the collective consciousness of the community.

If al Libi’s killing is a fact, it can be expected to provoke another wave of revenge attacks, similar to those that followed Osama bin Laden’s killing on May 1-2, 2011. Some of the prominent revenge attacks executed by al Qaeda and its affiliates after bin Laden’s killing included:

June 25, 2011: At least 10 Policemen were killed and another five sustained injuries when two suicide bombers, one of them a burqa-clad woman, blew themselves up inside a Police Station in Kolachi Town of Dera Ismail Khan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The al Qaeda affiliated Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack, declaring it was partly in revenge for the US raid that killed al Qaeda ‘chief’ Osama bin Laden.

May 26, 2011: A suicide bomber blew up a car laden with explosives at a checkpoint close to the Hangu Police Station and the Hangu District Police Officer’s office in KP, killing 32 persons and injuring 60. TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan claimed responsibility for the attack, stating, "Soon you will see bigger attacks. Revenge for Osama can't be satisfied just with small attacks."

May 22, 2011: At least 10 SF personnel and four TTP militants were killed, and nine SF personnel were injured in an attack by TTP on the Pakistan Naval Station (PNS) Mehran, within the Faisal Naval Airbase, Karachi. “Soon you will see attacks against America and NATO countries, and our first priorities in Europe will be France and Britain,” deputy TTP leader Wali-ur-Rehman announced in a videotape aired on Al Arabiya, adding, “We selected 10 targets to avenge the death of bin Laden”, of which the siege of the Pakistan Naval Base, PNS Mehran, was described as the “first revenge operation”.

May 13, 2011: At least 90 people, including 73 Paramilitary Force personnel and 17 civilians, were killed when twin suicide bombers attacked Paramilitary personnel as they were about to leave a Frontier Corps (FC) training centre in the Shabqadar tehsil (revenue unit) in Charsadda District in KP. TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan told the media, "This was the first revenge for Osama's martyrdom. Wait for bigger attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan."

Similarly, in 2007, after the Lal Masjid [Red Mosque] Operation in July that year, al Qaeda had released a video with the jihadi-Salafi al-Libi singing paeans to the Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa “martyrs”. In the video titled, Of the Masters of Martyrs, al Libi forcefully called on Pakistanis to take up arms against the then Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, whom he called the "dirty tyrant" and a pawn of the West. It is through videos on al Qaeda’s media wing, as-Sahab, that ideologues like al Libi gained visibility and credibility in jihadi circles. It was al Libi’s call to take up arms against the Pakistani Army that unleashed the endless internal war that now consumes the state. The Lal Masjid operation provoked the large scale violence within Pakistan, marking the beginning of a sharp escalation in domestic terrorism in the country. Before the Lal Masjid Operation, between January 1, 2003, and June 30, 2007, there were total of 4,040 killings (1,966 civilians, 1,379 militants and 695 SFs) in terrorist-linked violence, overwhelmingly the result of sectarian strife. After Lal Masjid, between July 1, 2007, and June 17, 2012, a total of 37, 937terrorism linked fatalities have been recorded (11,450 civilians, 22,710 militants and 3,777 SF).                               

Al Qaeda in Pakistan presently operates under its new amir, Farman Shiwari, who belongs to the Khugakhel sub-tribe of Shinwaris, and hails from the Landikotal Subdivision of the Khyber Agency in FATA. His appointment was announced by al Qaeda’s Dawa wing, which stated, on April 29, 2012, that Shinwari was selected as head of the network in Pakistan after consultations and approval of the top al Qaeda leadership. The reason for his selection, the statement added, was his close affiliation with slain al Qaeda leader Badar Mansoor (who was killed in a US drone attack on February 9, 2012) and his knowledge about FATA.

Al Qaeda and its franchises and allies, including TTP, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), the Qari Zafar Faction, the Badr Mansoor Unit, and many others, have a well established presence in Pakistan. However, two of the 17 documents released by the US Government on May 3, 2012, from the large cache seized during the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound, suggest that al Qaeda footprint in Pakistan may be much larger than hitherto suspected. The letters are dated from September 2006 to April 2011, a month before bin Laden’s killing. The declassified documents reveal the internal correspondence within al Qaeda across Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan.  One letter dated December 3, 2012 , between al Qaeda leaders Shaykh Mahmud al-Hasan (`Atiyya Abdul Rahman) and Abu Yahya al-Libi, on the one hand, and TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud, on the other, is a critique of TTP tactics, offers guidelines and also provides a glimpse of al Qaeda’s global reach. The extent of the al Qaeda led Jihad, Mahmud and Libi declare, is without any geographical limitations. Addressing their “good brother” Hakimullah, Mahmud and Libi write:
We have several important comments that cover the concept, approach and behaviour of the TTP in Pakistan, which we believe are passive behaviour and clear legal and religious mistakes which might result in negative deviation from the set path of the Jihadist Movement in Pakistan, which are also contrary to the objectives of Jihad and the efforts exerted by us...We want to make it clear to you that we, the al Qaeda is an Islamist Jihadist Organisation that is not restricted to a country or race...

Al Qaeda claims to have a decentralised and multi-layered global network. The letters seized are conversations and correspondence between recognisable faces of various al Qaeda units, and confirm al Qaeda’s global presence. The recipients and authors include, Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr, leader of the Somali militant group Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahidin; American al-Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn; Nasir al-Wuhayshi (Abu Basir), leader of the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP); Anwar al-`Awlaqi, al Qaeda’s American-Yemeni motivator and recruiter; and Hakimullah Mehsud, leader of the TTP.

The current threat gains greater potency with a strengthening of ties between TTP, the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda. In a clandestine meeting, al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban and TTP decided to set aside their differences in order to assist each other in their fight against the US and NATO Forces in Afghanistan. On January 2, 2012, al Qaeda brokered a new anti-US alliance in Pakistan and Afghanistan and created a joint five member council, the  Shura-e-Muraqba (Council for Protection). A statement issued in the form of a pamphlet in Waziristan, FATA, after the meeting, declared, “All Mujahideen – local and foreigners – are informed that all jihadi forces, in consultation with Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, have unanimously decided to form a five-member commission. It will be known as Shura-e-Muraqba.” This new alliance has added to al Qaeda’s existing capabilities, membership and facilities located across Af-Pak region. Despite the killing of militant “commanders” in the tribal areas of Pakistan and the continuous US attacks within the region, these groups remain a potent threat.

TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan confirming the joining of Shura-e-Muraqba told the media after the deal, “Yes, we signed an accord...to avoid killing of innocent people and kidnapping for ransom, but we did not agree with them to stop suicide attacks and our fight against Pakistani Security Forces.” He added, further, “for us, Pakistan is as important as Afghanistan and, therefore, we cannot stop our activities here.”

The 17 declassified al Qaeda documents released by the US and the subsequent revelations regarding the ‘alliance’ between al Qaeda and various like-minded Pakistani groups confirm the extent to which the al Qaeda and its virulent ideology has become embedded within Pakistan. This constitutes a direct threat, not only within Pakistan, but potentially across the world, and there is little to suggest that such a threat is likely to diminish in the foreseeable future. The core of threat remains firmly located within Pakistan, with the top al Qaeda leadership, including its present chief, al Zawahiri, confirmed, on April 30, 2012, by John Brennan, US Deputy National Security Advisor, to be ‘at large’ in Pakistan's tribal areas. More recently, on May 7, 2012, US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton reiterated, “There are several significant leaders still on the run. Zawahiri is somewhere, we believe, in Pakistan."  

Pakistan continues to play the role of a ‘good host’ to a multiplicity of Islamist terrorist groupings, prominently including al Qaeda and its many affiliates, as well as various factions of the Taliban operating in Afghanistan. As the US tinkers with its ‘strategy’ of phased withdrawal from Afghanistan, and seeks a ‘negotiated settlement’ with the ‘good Taliban’, al Qaeda and its allies are preparing to unleash a storm of violence across the region, one that will find resonances across the world. And Pakistan will not be immune to the savage blowback that, inevitably, will follow.

INDIA
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ULFA-ATF: Insignificant Force?
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UHMA) continues to project contradictory assessments of the Paresh Baruah-led Anti-talks Faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-ATF), indicating an absence of strategic clarity in approach, both to this group, and its breakaway Pro-talks Faction (ULFA-PTF). Thus, on June 1, 2012, Union Home Secretary R.K. Singh, dismissed the ULFA-ATF as an insignificant group, arguing, “Paresh Baruah … ULFA anti-talk faction is a small rump faction… insignificant. We will go without him. One insignificant person going away does not matter.”

On the other hand, Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram, had observed, on April 30, 2012,
The Home Secretary held the talks and he has reported to me that it is making progress but it will be slow progress because there is an anti-talk faction [ULFA-ATF]. So the pro-talk [ULFA-PTF] leaders are proceeding with great caution.

Meanwhile, recent developments indicate that, after the February 5, 2011, split, ULFA-ATF has begun to recover some ground despite the loss of key ‘military commanders’ to ULFA-PTF, as well as in operations against the Security Forces (SFs). Hira Sarania erstwhile ‘commander’ of ULFA’s “709th battalion” and Pallab Saikia, the '27th battalion' commander”, are among the ‘military leaders’ who opted to go with ULFA-PTF. Other top leaders from the ULFA’s armed units, including ULFA’s ‘deputy commander in chief’ Raju Baruah and leaders from ULFA’s '28th battalion', Mrinal Hazarika, Jiten Dutta [28th battalion-Alpha company leader], and Prabal Neog, now occupy important positions in the 35-member ULFA-PTF committee formed by Arabinda Rajkhowa. Other top militants, including Gulit Das, Haren Phukan and Phanindra Medhi alias Lebu, who once handled all of Baruah's finances in Bangladesh, have also been incorporated into the ULFA-PTF.

Further, the SFs have arrested 85 cadres of ULFA-ATF. Palash Hazarika alias Pawan Hazarika of the “28th battalion”, and reportedly Paresh Baruah’s bodyguard, surrendered before the SFs at Chetia Pathar in Chabua in Dibrugarh District on July 5, 2011. 13 cadres of the outfit, including three ‘corporals’ and one ‘lance corporal’, have also surrendered. Earlier, on February 5, 2011, Bangladeshi SFs had handed over three mid level militants - 'captain' Upen Buragohain alias Antu Chaudung [reportedly one of Paresh Baruah’s closest aides], 'second lieutenant' Pradip Chetia and ‘corporal’ Saurav – of the mother organization ULFA to the Border Security Force (BSF). In 2009, Bangladeshi authorities had arrested and handed over ‘Chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa, ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ Raju Baruah, ‘foreign secretary’ Shashadhar Choudhury and ‘finance secretary’ Chitrabon Hazarika. ULFA ‘general secretary’ Anup Chetia is currently lodged in a high security prison in Bangladesh.

Since February 5, 2011, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, ULFA-ATF has carried out as many as 14 blasts, targeting installations such as the Railways, Police Stations, Transmission Towers and markets. At least three persons, including two ULFA-ATF militants and a bomb carrier, have been killed in these attacks, and dozens have been injured. The most prominent of these attacks include:

May 25, 2012: A bomb suspected to be placed by ULFA-ATF went off in the evening at Philobari under Doomdooma Police Station in Tinsukia District. The bomb carrier, a young boy, died on the spot. Businesspersons in Philobari had allegedly been receiving extortion notices from the ULFA-ATF.

March 4, 2012: ULFA-ATF exploded an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) at Borpathar in Sivasagar District, damaging a power transmission tower of Northeastern Electric Corporation Limited (NEEPCO). The Police suspect ULFA-ATF had carried out the blast to put pressure on the 'chairman' of the ULFA-PTF, Arabinda Rajkhowa, who hails from the area.

November 20, 2011: Two ULFA-ATF militants were killed at Aouhatia Sarangabam in Sivasagar District when they were a planting bomb on railway tracks.

ULFA-ATF cadres have also engaged in gunfights with the SFs, with at least seven encounters reported. Five militants were killed in these encounters, while one SF trooper also lost his life. In the March 15, 2011, incident, one Assam Police Sub-Inspector and two suspected ULFA militants were killed during an encounter at Tongona Majgaon, under the Kakopathar Police Station of Tinsukia District.

ULFA-ATF is also provoking widespread fear through extortion notices and abductions, as an increasing desperation attends its efforts to secure funds. A financial crunch in the organization is evident, as it comes under SF pressure in Assam, and as the loss of bases and safe havens in Bangladesh takes its toll. While a majority of extortion notices and incidents go unreported in the media, at least 15 incidents have come on the record since February 5, 2011. Prominently, on March 26-28, 2012, ULFA-ATF served an extortion notice over the phone to the Food Corporation of India (FCI) office in North Lakhimpur District. Earlier, on February 9, 2012, ULFA-ATF demanded INR two million from the St. Luke's Hospital at Chabua in Dibrugarh District. There is no further information about these incidents. Reports indicate that, in many cases, top leaders, including Paresh Baruah, have called up businessperson to force compliance to extortion demands. However, while a residual capacity to extort money remains, the actual realization is reportedly diminishing. An April 29, 2012, report claimed that there have been instances where people have agreed to pay up less than a fourth of the demanded amount, even after receiving calls from Paresh Baruah. Significantly, since February 5, 2011 SFs have arrested 85 militants and linkman connected to the outfit, of which 28 were arrested on extortion related charges.

ULFA-ATF is presently led by its ‘acting vice-chairman’ and ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Baruah (57), based somewhere near the Sino-Myanmar border. Its acting ‘chairman’ is Abhijeet Burman, and the ‘central committee’ of the outfit includes ‘associate general secretary’ and ‘finance secretary in-charge’ Jibon Moran, along with two ‘deputy commanders-in-chief’, Dristi Rajkhowa and Bijoy Das. All present posts in the ‘central committee’ have been declared to be temporary in nature. Interestingly, Baruah has left the position of ‘General Secretary’ vacant. ULFA-PTF leader Mrinal Hazarika, in an interview to the media following the formation of the temporary central committee of ULFA-ATF observed, “Maybe Barua is waiting for Anup Chetia’s return, since he himself cannot nominate a permanent committee.” Anup Chetia alias Golap Baruah, Paresh Baruah’s cousin and mentor, is currently lodged in the high security Rajshahi Central Jail in Bangladesh since the completion of his prison term in January 2005[Anup Chetia was arrested in Dhaka on December 21, 1997 with two forged Bangladeshi passports]. Bangladesh’s envoy to India, Tariq Ahmad Karim, on June 14, 2012, disclosed, “India and Bangladesh are friendly neighbours and India has been requesting Bangladesh to extradite Anup Chetia, like other Indian terrorists, but he (Chetia) has applied for political asylum and that takes legal course of action.” He stressed that if Chetia had not applied for political asylum, he would have been pushed back into India long ago, like several other ULFA leaders.

ULFA-ATF has, an estimated strength of 150-250 militants, mostly new recruits, who are militarily organized into three groups – Rongili (the cheerful lady), the biggest formation, based in Myanmar; Lakhimi (the homely lady) is a small group still in Bangladesh; and Kopili (the speedy river), the new identity for the erstwhile 27th battalion, now temporarily based in Majuli, the biggest riverine island on the river Brahmaputra, located in Jorhat.

An operationally decimated ULFA-ATF has also started to collaborate, for its activities in lower Assam Districts of Kamrup and Goalpara, with the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA), a militant formation operating in the Garo Hills area of Meghalaya. Dristi Rajkhowa leads the ULFA-ATF unit operating in lower Assam. Senior Superintendent of Police (Guwahati City), Apurba Jibon Baruah, elaborating on the arrangement between the GNLA – ULFA-ATF noted, “According to the pact, ULFA [ATF] will not harm the Garo people living on the Assam side, while a group of 30-40 ULFA cadres are taking shelter in GNLA camps in the West Garo Hills District.” Indeed, their presence in the Garo Hills area provides the ULFA-ATF with an escape route to Bangladesh. Earlier, ULFA-ATF had reportedly sought to establish a relationship with the Manipur-based People’s Liberation army (PLA), though the fate of the proposed alliance remains unknown.

ULFA-ATF has also come out in support of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) units operating in the upper Assam Districts, although Baruah had initially viewed the movement with suspicion and had reportedly given orders to his cadres for the elimination of the Maoists. Significantly, on May 10, 2012, Baruah condemned the killing of four Maoist cadres in an encounter in a remote village in Sadiya in Tinsukia District on May 9, and extended ‘moral support’ to the Maoists. Some financial calculus may also underpin this reappraisal. The Maoists are reportedly ready to spend INR two billion for arms and training of their cadres, and Baruah is known to have emerged as one of the most important traffickers of Chinese small arms in the region.

Further, ULFA-ATF is among 14 militant groups of the Indian Northeast that joined hand in March 2011, to float a United Front. In addition to ULFA-ATF, the group includes the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), the Manipur based PLA, United National Liberation Front (UNLF), three factions of the People’s Republican Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), the Noyon group of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP-N), Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), All Tripura Tigers’ Force (ATTF), Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), GNLA, and a new unnamed group in Arunachal Pradesh.

In another worrying development, the arrest of Anthony Shimray of Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak -Muivah (NSCN-IM) on September 27, 2010, confirmed the fact that Paresh Baruah had emerged as a major arms dealer between the Yunnan-based China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO) and various militant formations in India’s Northeast. Baruah also maintains strong relations with the China-supported United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Myanmar. UWSA was formed in 1989, following the breakup of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB). Notably, ULFA-ATF has, at least on two occasions, expressed a Pro-China position in an effort to maintain the support of this powerful neighbour.

On May 26, 2012, Assam’s Additional Director General of Police (ADGP, Special Branch) Khagen Sarma claimed that Paresh Baruah had procured an estimated 800 AK series rifles over the past couple of years. “He is now left with around 150-200 armed cadres, after the arrest of almost all ULFA top guns. Does he need that many weapons?” Sarma argued. The main concern for the SFs, now, is that the excess firearms in the ULFA-ATF arsenal will fall into the hands of the CPI-Maoist, an emerging force in the State. The Maoists are already using Chinese weapons allegedly provided by the PLA.

Reports also indicate that Baruah may now be using his network to smuggle narcotics into India. Two agents of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Khwaja Sultan Malik and Qalil Ahmed, known to be operating out of Bangladesh, are believed to be helping Baruah and his trusted aides. Both Malik and Ahmed have close links with drug cartels in Southeast Asia, known to be smuggling narcotics into India through the porous Indo-Bangladesh border, allegedly with the ULFA's help.

Moreover, in an attempt to garner public support to regain lost ground, Paresh Baruah has extended support to several popular and mass movements, such as the anti-dam movement led by Akhil Gogoi and opposition to the Indo-Bangladesh accord on border demarcation. In an email statement to media on June 28, 2011, Baruah declared, "We should support Gogoi [Akhil] for his continuous struggle against capitalists.”

Efforts to re-unite the factions have not been given up and, on April 29, 2012, ULFA-ATF issued an ultimatum to ULFA-PTF 'chairman' Arabinda Rajkhowa to return to "active duty" within three months. ULFA-ATF 'Assistant Information and Publicity Secretary' Arunudoy Asom stated that, in case of a failure to comply with the deadline, the outfit would be forced to change its leadership.

ULFA-ATF’s continuous efforts to restore its capacities and establish a wider network of cooperation and collaboration with other militant and extremist formations in India’s Northeast continue to constitute a significant threat to peace in the region, even as they jeopardize the UMHA’s attempts to secure a peaceful settlement with ULFA-PTF. If the ULFA-ATF is able to consolidate its power, this will directly impact on the PTF’s will to engage with the state, even as talks progressively lose their relevance to the security situation in Assam. Consequently, sustained SF operations against the ULFA-ATF are necessary to halt the processes of consolidation that it has initiated. Worse, any undermining of the negotiations with ULFA-PTF would also bring into question the various Cease-fire Agreements (CFAs) signed earlier with another 18 militant formations in India’s northeast.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
June 11-17, 2012

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

1
1
0
2

Meghalaya

2
0
0
2

Left-wing Extremism

 

Bihar

0
1
0
1

Maharashtra

2
0
0
2

Odisha

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

6
2
0
8

NEPAL

0
0
1
1

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

11
0
0
11

FATA

29
0
32
61

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

4
8
7
19

Sindh

48
2
6
56

Gilgit Baltistan

1
0
0
1

Total (PAKISTAN)

93
10
45
148
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

US provides anti-terrorism training to Bangladesh Police: The US on June 14 concluded a 10-day instructor development training programme for the Bangladesh Police in Dhaka. Twenty-four officers and instructors from Training Institutes of Bangladesh Police participated in the training offered by the Department of State's Bureau of Diplomatic Security and taught by US instructors. New Age, June 15, 2012.


INDIA

Maoists admit losing 150 cadres: The CPI-Maoist has lost 150 members including senior leaders, cadres and guerrilla fighters, admitted the outfit on June 12. In a press statement issued by Gudsa Usendi, the spokesperson of the Maoists in Dandakaranya - the headquarters of the Maoist outfit, announced that in Dandakaranya alone, the group had lost 40 of its men in past one year. 110 Maoists died in the rest of the country where the outfit is active. Times of India, June 13, 2012.

LeT terrorists build own secure VOIP network, according to media report: The Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) has built their own Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) network that allows secure communication over the Internet, free of monitoring from authorities. The private system, known as Ibotel, is similar to other VOIP networks like Skype that encrypt audio signals into binary data. The Right Perspective, June 12, 2012.

Union Government approves INR 11 billion for NATGRID: The Centre on June 14 approved INR 11 billion for purchase of hi-tech equipment for the National Intelligence Grid (NATGRID), cleared by the Cabinet last year. The NATGRID will pool information from 21 categories of database including rail and air travel, income tax, bank account details, credit card transactions and visa and immigration records for ready access by intelligence agencies. The Hindu, June 15, 2012.


NEPAL

UCPN-M chairman Prachanda seeks CPN-UML chairman Jhala Nath Khanal's support to end political deadlock: The Central Committee meeting of the dissident faction of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) led by senior vice chairman Mohan Baidya has endorsed a political document that proposes revolt as its main political line and terms the acceptance of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) one of the major mistakes. The 17-page document prepared by Baidya will be presented at the national gathering of leaders and supporters of the faction starting from June 16 in Kathmandu. "The objective circumstances are favourable for revolution but we should create the subjective circumstances for revolution," the document reads. Republica, June 16, 2012.

Prachanda ready to quit party leadership for sake of party unity: A Standing Committee (SC) meeting of the establishment faction of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) decided on June 13 that party chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda is ready to quit the party leadership for the sake of preventing party split. The decision comes at a time when the dissident faction of the Maoist party led by Senior Vice chairman, Mohan Baidya has called a national gathering for June 15 in a bid to form new party. Republica, June 13, 2012.


PAKISTAN

48 civilians and six militants among 56 persons killed during the week in Sindh: Twelve people, including four Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) activists and a woman, were killed in separate acts of violence and target killing in Karachi on June 17. Also, two people, including a Police constable and an activist of the MQM, were shot dead in the night.

Six people were killed in Karachi in separate incidents of firing on June 16.

At least 11 more people were shot dead and two others wounded in different parts of Karachi on June 15.

At least nine persons, including a Police Officer, were killed and over a half dozen injured in different acts of target killings in Karachi on June 14.

Four people, including a cadre of People's Amn Committee (PAC), were killed in separate acts of violence in different areas of Karachi on June 13.

Three people, including the brother of MQM's ex-Member of Provincial Assembly, were killed in separate acts of violence in the metropolis on June 12.

Nine persons, including four gangsters and one Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) activist, were killed in separate incidents of violence in Karachi on June 10. Dawn; Daily Times; The News; Tribune, June 12-18, 2012

29 civilians and 32 militants among 61 persons killed during the week in FATA: Seven terrorists were killed and several of their hideouts destroyed in bombing by aircraft in North Waziristan Agency (NWA) on June 17.

25 people were killed when a car bomb hit a crowded bazaar in the town of Landi Kotal in Khyber Agency.

Nine militants were killed and four injured after jetfighters attacked their hideouts in Kalaya area of Upper Orakzai Agency on June 15.

At least nine suspected militants were killed and four others were injured when military planes attacked their positions in upper tehsil (revenue unit) of Orakzai Agency on June 14. Separately, a US drone attack killed at least three more militants by firing two missiles on a building in the central market of Miranshah in NWA.

A US drone fired two missiles on a car near Miranshah in NWA killing four suspects inside the car on June 13. Dawn; Daily Times; The News; Tribune, June 12-18, 2012

22 civilians among 25 persons killed during the week in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: At least 21 persons were killed and over 40 others injured on June 8 when a powerful bomb ripped through a bus carrying Government employees in Gulbela area on the Charsadda Road in the jurisdiction of Daudzai Police Station in Peshawar. The Intelligence reports revealed that it was a suicide attack. The News, June 8, 2012.

JuD resumes online jihad: The Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) has resumed online jihad. In a video address posted on its website, the website went online on June 13, the JuD 'chief' Hafiz Muhammad Saeed explained the decision. "The media is a two-edged sword," said Saeed, adding, "Rather than being overwhelmed by the media, we wish to use it in a positive way and, god willing, use it to spread our message of proselytisation and jihad." The Hindu, June 15, 2012.

Al Qaeda releases video featuring Abu Yahya al-Libi: A new video featuring al Qaeda's number two Abu Yahya al-Libi, who the US says was killed on June 4, 2012, in a drone strike in North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan, has been posted online. Both the SITE Monitoring Service and IntelCentre, which keep tabs on militants' websites, said it was not clear when the video had been made. SITE said the video production date only indicated it had been produced by al Qaeda's media arm As-Sahab sometime after November 2011. Dawn, June 14, 2012.

Suicide attacks declining in Pakistan, reveals data collected by Pakistan Body Count: Pakistan Body Count on June 13 reported that there is a steep decline in suicide attacks in the past few years. According to the data, the number of incidents as well as causalities, have witnessed a steep decline compared to 2009 and 2010 - the peak years in terms of causalities. Times of India, June 13, 2012.

Islamabad should 'bite the bullet' on NATO supplies, US Senior Government official: The Pakistani Government should "bite the bullet" and re-open supply routes to NATO forces in Afghanistan in order to ease tensions with the US, a senior US Government official said on June 12. The US had said on June 11, 2012, that it was withdrawing its team of negotiators from Pakistan without securing a long-sought deal on supply routes for the war in neighbouring Afghanistan, publicly exposing a diplomatic stalemate and deeply strained relations that appear at risk of deteriorating further. Daily Times, June 13, 2012.

Supreme Court would summon Army chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani over Balochistan situation, says Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry: The Supreme Court on June 11 hinted it could summon Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani over the worsening law order situation in Balochistan, and could ask him how the country should be run and what he can do in this regard. The Chief Justice of Pakistan, Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, remarked that the court could pass an order under Article 190 to summon the Army Chief. Daily Times, June 12, 2012.

Taliban links vaccination to drone strikes: The Taliban in North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has declared a ban on the polio vaccination programme in the tribal agency as long as drone attacks continue in the region. This ban was announced on June 16 through a press release which claimed polio affected only few in comparison to drones which killed large numbers indiscriminately. The Hindu, June17, 2012.


SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka experiences the largest year-on-year improvement in Global Peace Index: According to the 2012 Global Peace Index (GPI) released on June 12, Sri Lanka has achieved great improvement in the GPI. Sri Lanka's GPI score experienced the largest year-on-year improvement of the 158 nations surveyed and it climbed 27 places to 103rd position overall and 17th in the Asia Pacific region ahead of India (142) and Pakistan (149). ColomboPage, June 13, 2012.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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