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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 37, March 28, 2005
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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The Centre Cannot
Hold…
Guest Writer: Amir Mir
Senior Assistant Editor, Monthly Herald, Dawn Group
of Newspapers, Karachi
The law and order situation in Pakistan's Balochistan province
continues to deteriorate with every passing day amidst armed
attacks by Baloch nationalists on the country's main natural
gas installations to express their anger on a range of contentious
issues, be it the alleged rape of a lady doctor by an Army
Captain, the setting up of three new cantonments in the
province, the exploitation of Balochistan's natural resources
by the Centre, or the launching of federally sanctioned
mega projects there.
Over last
few months, Baloch rebels have been hard at work planting
landmines, firing rockets, exploding bombs or ambushing
military convoys and killing dozens including army jawans
(soldiers), levies, security agents, Government officials
as well as civilians. The Sui airport building has been
blown up, gas pipelines and electricity grids have been
hit repeatedly, and bomb explosions have been engineered
close to the official residence of the provincial Chief
Minister as well as the Governor. Even the military installations
in Quetta, the capital of Balochistan, have not been spared
by the angry nationalists. A fierce gun-battle between tribal
insurgents and the Frontier Corps (FC) near Sangsela in
the Dera Bugti district of Balochistan province on March
17, 2005, left more than 50 dead, mostly women and children.
The worsening law and order situation took yet another dangerous
turn on March 20, 2005, when the Governor of Balochistan,
Awais Ahmed Ghani, informed the national media that the
Bugti tribesmen had surrounded an entire military fort manned
by at least 300 FC personnel of at a base in the Dera Bugti
area.
The Bugti loyalists surrounded the FC Fort after rumours
that an anti-Bugti military operation was about to be launched.
The Bugti tribesmen encircling the FC Fort had already been
surrounded by a second layer of the Army jawans,
leaving the Bugti tribesmen sandwiched between the Fort
and the outer layer of the Army. These developments were
followed by the March 21 lodging of a criminal case against
Akbar Bugti, his grandson Bramdagh Bugti and 150 other Bugti
tribesmen on charges of attacking the FC convoy, killing
and injuring FC personnel, destroying national installations
and disrupting law and order on March 17, 2005. Akbar Bugti
has been ruthless over the years in maintaining his dominance
of the Bugtis. Outside the tense desert town of Dera Bugti,
hundreds of determined tribesmen with guns sit in bunkers
near the roadside. However, Bugti still appears easy to
target, surrounded by a tribal militia that could be badly
outgunned if security forces launch a major military operation.
Some 6,000 Pakistani forces, including the regular army,
are in the region.
Rich in natural and mineral resources, Balochistan is the
largest of Pakistan's four provinces but has high illiteracy
and unemployment rate. The poverty-stricken province has
been in the news for the past many months due to frequent
armed clashes between armed Baloch nationalists and Pakistan
Army troops. The unrest in Balochistan has, however, simmered
for many decades, with nationalists leading insurgencies
in 1948, 1958-59, 1962-63 and 1973-77, all of which were
suppressed by the all-powerful Pakistan Army. The last such
crisis of the 1970s erupted into an insurgency that lasted
four years and was eventually put down, with the Army employing
brutal methods. The revolt which manifested itself in the
form of an armed struggle against the Army was largely provoked
by unjust federal policies that had created a sense of deprivation
among the people of Balochistan. The rebellion finally came
to an end after Zia-ul-Haq's 1977 military coup against
the civilian Government of Premier Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.
In the 1980s and 1990s, the Baloch nationalists didn't make
trouble because they had become a part of the political
landscape, since they were sharing power in the province.
Over the past five years, since General Musharraf's 1999
military take over, however, the nationalists have gradually
been excluded from political power in the province, which
is now being ruled by a coalition Government of the establishment-sponsored
right-wing Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and the six-party
alliance of religious extremists, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal
(MMA). Frustrated, the nationalists launched an armed struggle
to re-stake their claims, leading to a bloody insurgency.
The result is that the law and order situation in Balochistan
is eroding with every passing day.
The key to the events currently unfolding in Balochistan
can be traced back to the early days of 2003, a year that
will go down in Baloch political history as one of mergers
and coalitions among nationalist groups. By September 2003,
four major Baloch nationalist parties had fallen together
in an alliance called the Baloch Ithehad (Baloch
Alliance), which had a two-point agenda that coincided exactly
with that professed by the armed rebels of the province:
opposition to the setting up of military garrisons and to
the launching of mega projects on Baloch soil. The two-point
agenda soon became an active and violently articulated popular
scheme in the province.
As far as the current wave of violence is concerned, it
began on January 1, 2005, when Dr. Shazia Khalid of Pakistan
Petroleum Limited (PPL) was raped in the confines of the
high-security Sui Gas Refinery compound, allegedly by four
Army men including a Captain belonging to the Defence Security
Guards (DSG). Under pressure from military authorities,
the administration tried to hush up the crime. Yet, the
charismatic chieftain of the Bugti tribe, Sardar Akbar Khan
Bugti, was quick to hold a press conference, describing
Dr. Shazia Khalid's rape as an affront to the Baloch honour,
which he declared "must be avenged at all costs". A few
days later, on January 6, 2005, a clandestine organisation
calling itself the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) started
targeting the positions of DSG and FC around the PPL installations.
Yet, the Musharraf Administration, instead of cooling down
Baloch emotions by taking the rape accused to task, decided
to rush thousands of additional troops to Dera Bugti, besides
announcing the setting up of new and permanent military
bases in Balochistan The proposed building of new cantonments
greatly irritated Baloch Sardars, particularly the heads
of the Bugti, the Marri and the Mengal tribes, who view
the move as an unwarranted intrusion to further subjugate
them. But, ignoring the Baloch sentiments with impunity,
General Musharraf alleged on March 24, 2005, that the three
tribal chiefs of Balochistan (Sardar Akbar Khan Bugti, Sardar
Attaullah Mengal and Nawab Khair Baksh Marri) were responsible
for the present mess in the province, as they are opposed
to the mega-projects in particular, and to development in
the province in general, for fear that their traditional
hold on their areas may be weakened by modernization.
The tribal chiefs, on the other hand, clarified that they
are not opposed to development, but to the deprivation of
the Baloch people's rights in the name of development and
modernization. They maintain that the people of Balochistan
are being denied their due share of the income from huge
gas reserves, coupled with the fact that they have effectively
been excluded from both the development and political process
in Balochistan, and that too, to the enormous advantage
of the Army, which is using development to extend its presence
and increase its influence in the province. Even otherwise,
major Baloch grievances continue to revolve around the issue
of development and royalties for natural resources.
Natural Gas was discovered in the Sui area around 1952.
Since then, Pakistan has benefited enormously from this
cheap source of energy. Balochistan, however, neither had
gas for its own use nor was paid royalties, which were its
due, till the mid-1980s, and that too when an Army cantonment
needed the gas - although Sui gas had reached far-flung
towns in Punjab by that time. The gas from Balochistan meets
38 per cent of the national needs, yet only six per cent
of Balochistan's 6.5 million people have access to it. Adding
insult to injury, Balochistan is not paid proper royalties,
with amounts paid to the province for its gas pegged much
lower than those being paid for later discoveries in Sindh
and Punjab. This is cause of much heartburn for the Baloch,
who have now decided to resist exploration activities unless
they are assured a fair share in gas and oil development.
Baloch concerns about their status were intensified when
the Federal Government launched a project in the coastal
town of Gwadar, which they fear will lead to large-scale
immigration from other provinces, adding to the large numbers
of 'outsiders' already present in the province. The nationalists
say Gwadar is a Federal project without provincial approval
or participation, in which the non-Baloch civil-military
elites are grabbing land for a song. With Balochistan's
entire population standing at only 6.5 million, almost half
of which is non-Baloch, the Balochis fear they are being
'Red Indianised'. They consequently demand that over 50
per cent of the jobs at Gwadar be given to them.
Further, there is opposition to the establishment of new
cantonments at three places in Balochistan - Kohlu, Sui
and Gwadar. The nationalists say they are not needed for
national defence, but are rather being set up to protect
the planned Punjabi settlements and to suppress Baloch opposition
to the usurpation of their rights by these outsiders.
On the other hand, General Pervez Musharraf's Balochistan
policy is moving on two parallel tracks - one hardline and
the other more flexible. He wants to send a clear message
to the defiant tribal chiefs: we will talk; but only up
to a point. The move for a political dialogue with the nationalists
has been a non-starter till now, in the absence of any indication
of the military's willingness to consider their demands
relating to the increase in the payment of royalty, suspension
of the construction of the Gwadar project till its implications
for the economic interests of the Balochis are examined,
the stoppage of the influx of the Punjabis and other non-Balochis
into the province, and the abandoning of the plans for more
cantonments. Musharraf has already made clear his determination
to go ahead with the Gwadar and other Chinese-aided projects
in the province, as also the projects for new cantonments.
Recent events in Balochistan have once again clearly underlined
the many political handicaps faced by the country. The matter
of solving the Balochistan dispute is no more about settling
a single problem, such as the rape of a lady doctor, the
exploitation of the province's natural resources, the setting
up of new cantonments, or the continuing hostility and tension
surrounding the Sui reserves. The matter is fundamentally
about Pakistan's basic political direction, if the country
is to become a stable and prospectively progressive state.
If this is the case, the only way to deal with the problem
is to give the people of Balochistan the rights that have
been denied to them. The use of brute force will only cause
further alienation, leaving them no option but to fight
for their genuine economic and political rights. The clock
is ticking and the Musharraf regime must move swiftly for
a political situation, where the strong are just and the
weak secure.
TRO
and Tsunami
Guest Writer: Bandula Jayasekara
Correspondent, The Island newspaper in Sri Lanka,
and The Lanka Academic
Tsunami killer waves brought sorrow and destruction to most
coastal parts of Sri Lanka. The wave did not discriminate
between rich or the poor, the Army or the Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),
the Government controlled areas or the areas temporarily
controlled by the LTTE. Many say that clouds of war were
looming when the Tsunami struck, and this tragedy has given
an opportunity for all Sri Lankans to work together and
to re-build the country as it faced the worst natural disaster
in its history. Nearly forty thousand perished within just
two hours. The long conflict, so far, has seen just about
70,000 dead over a period of twenty years. As he surveyed
the devastation, former US Secretary of State, General Collin
Powell, said he had not seen such destruction even in the
battle field or a war zone.
Neither
Sri Lanka nor the world was ready to face a disaster of
this magnitude, but each rallied around to do its part.
The Sri Lankan President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, returned
immediately from London; a Centre for National Disaster
Operation was set up to coordinate relief and rescue operations
across affected areas in the country, whether under the
control of the LTTE or in the South. In the initial stages,
the LTTE leader Prabhakaran was no where to be seen leading
to speculation that he had become a victim of the Tsunami.
However, he appeared much later to meet with the Norwegian
Foreign Minister, Jan Petersen, though many in Sri Lanka
continued to believe that Prabhakaran was dead and that
it was only a double who met Petersen.
With the Tsunami, the LTTE front Tamil Rehabilitation Organization
(TRO), known as its fundraising outfit and banned in a number
of countries, including USA, UK and Malaysia, came to the
forefront in the areas temporarily controlled by the LTTE.
They seized the opportunity, riding on the sympathy wave
around the world, with the TRO organizing fundraising campaigns
even in countries like the United Kingdom (UK) where they
are banned. The Governments of these counties turned a blind
eye to these activities, even though posters and other publicity
material requested support only for the north and the east
of Sri Lanka. At the same time, the TRO and the LTTE carried
out a sinister propaganda exercise against, claiming the
Government had done nothing to help the people of the north
and the east. The Sri Lankan Foreign Minister, Lakshman
Kadirgamar, on March 17, told a gathering at the prestigious
International Institute for Strategic Studies in London
that the LTTE should not be allowed to use the Tsunami for
propaganda.
The World Food Programme and the International Committee
of the Red Cross (ICRC), which have often been seen and
accused of being sympathetic towards the LTTE, have both
denied that the Government had neglected the North and the
East in its relief operations. Nevertheless, the TRO/LTTE
campaign of calumny continues, and has secured some sympathy
from sections of the western media and gullible western
countries and International Non-Governmental Organisations
(INGOs).
The TRO, mainly with support from some INGOs, appears to
have taken full control of the situation and the operation
in the areas under the LTTE's current control. A report
published by the TRO this month on their progress looked
impressive in print and shows many foreign nationals working
with the TRO. However, the world does not have a full report
on the damage, death and destruction in the areas currently
under LTTE control, and there is evidence of significant
distortions. A community worker in the North said "We are
facing a dilemma here. The TRO prevents us from working
freely here and they obstruct any form of relief other than
through them." Academic and Conflict Analyst, Dayan Jayatillke,
said "Unless the TRO is given the monopoly they will continue
to obstruct others from working in the north/east and giving
relief to the affected people. They are adopting the policy
of a 'Tiger in the manger'." He also said that TRO and the
LTTE were using the Tsunami as an opportunity to gain lost
sympathy and to fill their coffers. Given the sheer quantum
of relief funding flowing in, the LTTE-TRO seeks direct
control, while the Government has proposed a joint mechanism
that would ensure greater accountability. This is yet to
be finalised and discussions have dragged on.
Some sections of the NGOs in the North have, nevertheless,
claimed that TRO has done a good job in trying to re-build
the areas that have been devastated, even while it helps
the LTTE raise funds for other purposes. Even though there
are many LTTE front organizations, including, for instance,
the White Pigeon, operating after the Tsunami, the TRO has
taken the lead role, and it is evident that the LTTE is
keen to give legitimacy. It is difficult to determine the
exact quantum of funds being handled by the TRO after the
tsunami, but, independent analysts believe it to be in the
billions of rupees. A TRO document conceded that the organization
had received a sum of nearly USD 500 million between December
26 to January 26, including USD 500,000 from Norway. It
stated further that local institutions and private donations
had added SLR 52.4 million, postal orders SLR 3.8 million,
and another SLR 20.7 million from NGOs.
At least some of the relief operations are being exploited
for illicit ends. Customs sources indicate that the TRO
has cleared more than forty containers since the tsunami,
and more are pending clearance. However, the Government
was forced to tighten its regulations on customs clearance
for most NGOs and INGOs, including the TRO, after many unwanted
goods and even sensitive communication equipment, arms and
helicopter and plane parts were found in containers purportedly
carrying relief goods. Thus, for instance, Sri Lanka's Air
Force, on January 22, 2005, detained two unassembled helicopters
that arrived with Tsunami aid supplies, saying they presented
a potential threat to national security. A Bell helicopter
and an unidentified aircraft arrived at the international
airport, sealed in wooden crates as part of a Tsunami aid
consignment. The TRO, in retaliation, has started a disinformation
campaign, claiming that the Government is taxing relief
goods and making things difficult for relief organisations.
A senior Brigadier of the Sri Lanka Army said " We cannot
allow the country's security to be threatened and allow
interested parties to smuggle arms and other equipment in
the name of relief. That's why we have asked the Navy to
check all the containers" However, Analyst Dayan Jayatillke
said it was a ploy by the LTTE to create hatred among between
international organizations and the Government.
The LTTE, in turn, has accused the Government of wanting
to take control of the funds in order to use them as a bargaining
point in the stalled peace process. The Government, however,
has clearly stated that it has no intention of exploiting
the relief issue for political gains, as this is the largest
humanitarian disaster the country has ever faced. Some Government
officials have also gone on record to state that 'ground
level cooperation' with the LTTE has been 'excellent'.
The present crisis is too great for relief to be held ransom
to politics. All the victims want is a roof over their heads,
their lost livelihood, and the chance to recover the fragments
of their lives in peace.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts
in South Asia
March
21-27, 2005
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Civilian
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorist
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Total
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BANGLADESH
|
0
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0
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3
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3
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INDIA
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Jammu
&
Kashmir
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14
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1
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10
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25
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Left-wing
Extremism
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3
|
1
|
6
|
10
|
Manipur
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0
|
1
|
3
|
4
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Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
11
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Total (INDIA)
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17
|
3
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30
|
50
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NEPAL
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4
|
3
|
12
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19
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PAKISTAN
|
1
|
5
|
1
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7
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SRI LANKA
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0
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0
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7
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7
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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INDIA
Naxalites planned big attack
in Delhi, says arrested leader: Left-wing extremists (also
known as Naxalites) planned a 'big action' in New Delhi to capture
the nation's attention, a top-ranking leader who was recently
arrested at Rajahmundry in Andhra Pradesh (AP) has reportedly
revealed to the police. According to Times of India,
the 'central committee' of the Communist Party of India - Maoist
(CPI-Maoist)
entrusted the mission to Patel Sudhakar Reddy alias Suryam and
Takkelapalli Vasudeva Rao alias Ashanna, both prime suspects
in the assassination attempt on former AP Chief Minister, Chandrababu
Naidu, at Alipiri in 2003. CPI-Maoist leader, K. Seshagiri Rao
alias Gopanna, who was arrested from a hotel room in Rajahmundry
on March 6, 2005, revealed information on the plan to the police.
Until his arrest, Gopanna, who faces over 40 murder cases, used
to head the CPI-Maoist military wing in its Andhra-Orissa Border
Zone. Times
of India, March 26, 2005.
10 persons killed during factional fight between NSCN groups
in Nagaland: At least 10 people were reportedly killed and
several others sustained injuries during clashes between the
two rival Naga insurgent factions in Nagaland on March 24, 2005.
Police said some 60 cadres of the Isak-Muivah faction of the
National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM)
attacked a camp of the rival group led by S.S. Khaplang (NSCN-K)
in the Surohuto village of Zunheboto district, 190 km north
of the capital Kohima, at approximately 5.30 am (IST). Senior
NSCN-K leader, Kughalo Mulatonu, claimed that their cadres had
killed 10 attackers. "It was an unprovoked attack and we have
already inflicted heavy casualties," said Mulatonu. Police official
Muthasuyi Chakesang, however, said they had confirmation of
three NSCN-IM cadres being killed. "We have rushed paramilitary
soldiers to defuse the situation. The casualty figures might
go up as fighting is still on," the official said.Times
of India, March 25, 2005.
PAKISTAN
Kashmir resolution
will avoid another Kargil, says President Musharraf: President
Pervez Musharraf said on March 27, 2005, that India and Pakistan
should adopt a 'positive' attitude towards the Kargil war and
resolve the Kashmir issue to prevent a repeat of a Kargil-like
situation. Replying to an e-mail sent by an Indian to his (Musharraf's)
website asking his views on the reunification of India and Pakistan
as well as his 'silence' on the Kargil war, Gen. Musharraf said
reunification was not possible, but both countries could establish
close ties if Kashmir was resolved. "I will like to say that you
must never see Kargil alone. See Kargil in its entire complexity
of the Kashmir dispute in Kashmir. We have had three wars," he
said, adding "What is the future? Resolve disputes so that Siachens,
Kargil, Marpola and Chorbatla don't happen again. Let us resolve
Kashmir first and then I am sure it won't happen again." Daily
Times, March 28, 2005.
Former Inspector General of Police among five police personnel
killed in Gilgit: Former Inspector General of Police (IGP),
Sakhiullah Tareen, and four police officials were killed when
unidentified men fired at his vehicle on March 23, 2005, near
village Jotal in the Northern Areas of Pakistan occupied Kashmir
(PoK). Tareen was on his way back to Gilgit from Hunza when gunmen
ambushed the vehicle he was traveling in. The IGP's son and daughter-in-law
were wounded during the ambush. "It appears to be a sectarian
murder. We have ordered investigations," said an unnamed Interior
Ministry official. The Government had reportedly removed Tareen
from the post of Northern Areas IGP and had transferred him as
officer on special duty on March 18. Daily
Times, March 24, 2005.
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The South
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