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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 4, July 28, 2015
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Punjab:
Complacence Kills
K.P.S.
Gill
Publisher, SAIR; President, Institute for Conflict
Management
A day-long
standoff between the Punjab Police and three terrorists
who had holed up in an abandoned housing complex in the
Dinanagar Police Station campus in the Gurdaspur District
of Punjab in the early hours of July 27, 2015, ended with
the killing of the last of the three terrorists just after
5 pm. A Superintendent of Police and three Home Guards
also lost their lives in this gratuitous attack, which
included the killing of three civilians in random shootings
by the terrorists that led up to the final denouement
at the Police Station. Separately, five bombs were found
and defused on the Amritsar-Pathankot railway track in
Gurdaspur, and initial speculation has linked these to
the same group.
There are
few surprises here: preliminary evidence, including data
on two GPS devices recovered from the slain terrorists,
indicates that they entered India from the Shakargarh
area of Pakistan; while conclusive identification is yet
to be made, there is little doubt that these are Islamist
terrorists; the pattern of the attack bears striking resemblance
to a succession of so called fidayeen attacks in
Jammu & Kashmir (J&K); the Centre claims that
it had been warning Punjab of an imminent attack for some
time; the Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal claims
that the Centre provided no intelligence of any impending
threat and had also failed in its duty to prevent infiltration
across the international border. Union Home Minister Rajnath
Singh has declared, once again, that India would give
a “befitting reply” to this new provocation from Pakistan.
Nevertheless, initial reports suggest that talks with
Pakistan are to continue and the scheduled meeting of
Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi in 2016
is still on. Jitendra Singh, Minister of State in the
Prime Minister’s Office, speaking even while the operation
was ongoing, asserted that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) – the principal sponsor of terrorism in the South
Asian region – was likely to be behind this latest attack.
Several commentators also speculated that the terrorists
were probably affiliated to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT),
the Islamist terrorist formation that has long enjoyed
the open and enthusiastic support of the Pakistani state.
All this
is par for the course, but there are elements that need
closer attention. First, the attack is widely being spoken
as an aberration, because it occurred in Punjab; others
are speaking of it as an ‘overflow’ from J&K, the
‘principal target’ of the Pakistan-backed Islamist terrorists.
There is a deeply erroneous reading of the situation here.
Over the past years, locations across India have been
targeted by the Islamist terrorists; these are not just
attacks ‘in J&K’, or ‘on Mumbai’ or ‘on Bodh Gaya’
or ‘on Gurdaspur’; State, city or district jurisdictions
may have relevance in terms of tactical responses, but
it is folly to believe that the ambitions or the operations
of our enemies are in any way circumscribed by these internal
arrangements. These attacks are systematically directed
against India. Specific targets may be dictated by transient
considerations of capacity, tactics or opportunity; but
at core, this is a long term strategy to weaken India
on every possible occasion, by every available device.
Regrettably, our leaderships, particularly in the political,
security and intelligence spheres, tend to lapse quickly
into complacence regarding regions that are not subjected
to sustained violence, despite visible vulnerabilities
and threats. Gurdaspar is an obvious case in point; this
is an area bordering Pakistan, with a history of volatility,
significant vulnerabilities along the border, particularly
to drug smuggling – another ‘industry’ actively supported
by the Pakistani state; and disturbing legacies of deep
involvement in the Khalistani terrorist movement that
ravaged Punjab for over 13 years, through the 1980s and
early 1990s. There have been continuous intelligence flows
indicating that the ISI has been pressuring the many ‘rump
elements’ of the defeated Khalistani movement – who Pakistan
continues to host and fund in the hope of a possible revival
– demanding that they ‘do something’ in Punjab to earn
their keep. That they have failed is proof of the degree
to which their ideology and networks were completely defeated
in Punjab, the complete absence of traction that their
occasional efforts have met, and the capacities and penetration
that the Punjab Police and intelligence continue to retain.
Nevertheless, Pakistan’s intentions and objectives in
Punjab have never been in doubt, and the prospect that
they could employ different instrumentalities – including
the Islamist terrorists in their stables – is something
we should have been completely prepared for, and utterly
unsurprised by.
Our focus
on ISI in the frenzied discussions that follow every new
attack is also at least partially misdirected and strategically
misleading. The ISI, in particular, has been magnified
in the popular imagination into a formidable, indeed,
monstrous entity. But this is the same ISI that we defeated
comprehensively in Punjab. This is no remarkable, invincible
organisation. But despite our national obsession with
the ISI, its capacities and its proxies have never been
the target of a sustained national strategy and campaign.
We have reacted in isolation, locally, to each of its
provocations; and slunk back into grateful complacency
whenever and wherever we have been spared its venomous
attention for any length of time. This is hardly the approach
that is going to counter, leave alone defeat, a relentless
adversary operating under an ideology of uncompromising
hatred based on a deeply held, albeit perverse, Faith.
Crucially,
however, our problem is not the ISI alone. Islamist terrorists
the world over are, today, operating under the umbrella
of an overarching Islamist terrorist Internationale,
of which ISI is as much a part as is the Islamic State
(IS, formerly Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, ISIS),
al Qaeda, and numerous rag tag Islamist terrorist formations
that are proliferating across the world. These groups
are not working in isolation, nor is Pakistan their only
state sponsor. The virulent ideology of Islamist extremism
that underpins all Islamist terrorist groups is shared
by numerous states – most prominently including Pakistan
and Saudi Arabia. While these states and the many ‘non-state
actors’ may have their own turf wars, disputes about command
and control, about priorities, and about tactics, on ideology
and in broad strategic orientation, this is a single complex.
And as far as India is concerned, there is an identity
of purpose across this entire complex: this is a ‘region
of disbelief’, a land where the kafir has escaped
rightful Islamist domination, and a necessary theatre
of ‘re-conquest’. Billions of petro-dollars, injected
overwhelmingly through a range of illegal channels, have,
over the decades, funded the proliferation of Wahabi-Salafists
mosques and madrasas across India, and particularly
in its most sensitive and unstable concentrations – including
J&K and along other vulnerable borders. We may, for
the moment, rejoice in the fact that very few Indians
have been tempted to join IS in Iraq and Syria – but hundreds
have certainly gone across to join jihadi groups
in Pakistan and Afghanistan. To believe that the hundreds
of thousands of Indians who are currently being exposed
to the distorted doctrines of Salafist and extremist Islam,
will forever remain impervious to the seduction of the
siren song of the Islamist terrorist jihad, is
to ignore the violent realities that are sweeping across
West Asia, North Africa and parts of South Asia today,
and that have deeply infected even the tiny populations
of Muslims in the affluent West.
There is
one aspect of the Dinanagar incident that is of significance
in this context. Some criticism is now being levelled
against the Punjab Police, both for its decision to keep
the better equipped and trained Indian Army and National
Security Guard (NSG) out of the operation, as well as
for various aspects of its own response. A tactical response
assessment, based on a minute by minute examination of
responses of this entire operation must, of course, precede
any authoritative and prudent critique; but certain deficiencies
were clearly visible. The absence of protective gear among
even the ‘elite’ Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) team
leading the response; poor training visible in the clustering
of groups of policemen, in postures during firing, in
their movements, and some morbidly obese individuals in
the Force, are all elements that have been swooped down
upon by those who seek to highlight the negatives – and
rightly so. But the determination of the Punjab Police
and its leadership to handle the response on its own,
despite the presence of better equipped, better protected
and better trained teams of central Forces on location,
and despite some pressure to deploy these, is commendable.
The Director General of Police, Sumedh Singh Saini chose
to lead from the front and whatever one may say of the
quality of the response of his men, their motivation,
their dedication to the task, their courage, and indeed,
even the pugnacious attitude of some of the wounded, cannot
be denied. This is a tremendous change from the characteristic
whining and complaining by most State Police Forces in
the wake of a terrorist incident, and the eagerness with
which an intervention by central Forces is awaited and
accepted.
Despite
the visible deficiencies of the response of the Punjab
Police, this is the only sustainable model to protect
against the depredations of terrorists and extremists
of various hues across unpredictable locations across
the country. The Army and NSG cannot be everywhere, and
cannot be deployed within an acceptable time frame at
every new location of terrorist attack. Local authorities
cannot, and must not, wait interminably for the Centre
to send in appropriately trained or equipped Forces. The
local Police, the first responders, must be ready, willing
and highly motivated to react immediately and effectively
on their own, and must take rightful pride in so responding.
Every crisis across India cannot be handled from New Delhi.
Decentralization is absolutely necessary, certainly in
security matters.
There is
tremendous latent danger in our regional environment and
across the world today. The threat has been substantially
contained within India, but it would be unwise to assume
that this will forever remain the case. Police Forces
and local intelligence across the country – and including
Punjab – have been subjected to a continuous process of
deprivation and decay. There must be a concerted effort,
now, to strengthen the working of all Police Stations,
their fortification, the improvement of personnel profiles
and capabilities, technologies, weaponry and processes.
This will not only be our most effective response to the
challenge of terrorism, it will bring about a comprehensive
transformation in the security profile of the country.
Our greatest
threats lie in the weakness, the corruption and the degeneration
of our own institutions and leaderships. We must, of course,
defend against the machinations of our external enemies;
but we must protect, even more urgently, against the enemy
within.
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Compounding
Folly
Sanchita
Bhattacharya
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The Supreme
Court (SC) of Pakistan on July 22, 2015, observed that
the war against terrorism could not be fought without
choking funds to terror outfits. The Court expressed grave
concern over the Federal Government as well as the Provincial
Governments for their failure to compile the baseline
data pertaining to sources of funding of local as well
as International Non-Governmental Organisations (INGOs)
operating in the country.
Though
the Apex Court did not directly blame the Pakistani establishment
for involvement in funding terror groups, it is widely
believed internationally that Islamabad continues with
this policy.
During
the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meet at Brisbane
in Australia in June 2015, India had strongly raised the
issue of non-compliance by Islamabad on freezing assets
of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
and its affiliates. India pointed out that Muhammad Iqbal,
the founding member of Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF),
one of LeT’s many front organisations, had been put on
the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT)
by the United States in August 2014. Iqbal had made the
payment to purchase Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
used by perpetrators of November 26, 2008, (26/11) Mumbai
attacks. According to sources, India with the support
of allies included the United States (US), managed to
derail China's bid, backed by Australia, to shield Pakistan
on the issue of terror financing.
Several
countries – including Pakistan’s "all weather friend"
China; Russia, which in recent times have started moving
closer to Pakistan to counter India’s perceived improving
relations with the US; and Australia – knowingly or unknowingly
fell prey to Pakistani propaganda that it was doing its
level best and submitting reports to the Asia Pacific
Group (APG), which works in collaboration with FATF. Nevertheless,
FATF finally decided in Brisbane, supporting India’s argument,
that, though Pakistan was not part of FATF, it was part
of APG, and its enforcement of targeted financial sanctions
against terrorism should be subject to monitoring by FATF
through APG.
Interestingly,
on February 27, 2015, during the FATF meeting at Paris,
Pakistan's name was put into the category of "Jurisdictions
no longer Subject to the FATF's On-Going AML/CFT Compliance
Process". This list included seven countries, including
Albania, Namibia, Kuwait, Cambodia, Zimbabwe and Nicaragua,
apart from Pakistan. Explaining Pakistan’s position, FATF
had then observed,
The
FATF welcomes Pakistan’s significant progress in
improving its AML/CFT [Anti-Money Laundering and
Countering Financing of Terrorism] regime and notes
that Pakistan has established the legal and regulatory
framework to meet its commitments in its action
plan regarding the strategic deficiencies that the
FATF had identified in June 2010. Pakistan is therefore
no longer subject to the FATF’s monitoring process
under its on-going global AML/CFT compliance process.
Pakistan will work with APG as it continues to address
the full range of AML/CFT issues identified in its
mutual evaluation report, in particular, fully implementing
UNSC [United Nations Security Council] Resolution
1267.
|
On October
28, 2011, FATF had expressed its disappointment
regarding five countries, including Pakistan, stating:
The
FATF is not yet satisfied that the following jurisdictions
have made sufficient progress on their action plan
agreed upon with the FATF. The most significant
action plan items and/or the majority of the action
plan items have not been addressed. If these jurisdictions
do not take sufficient action to implement significant
components of their action plan by February 2012,
then the FATF will identify these jurisdictions
as being out of compliance with their agreed action
plans and will take the additional step of calling
upon its members to consider the risks arising from
the deficiencies associated with the jurisdiction.
|
On missing
the deadline, Pakistan was blacklisted by FATF on February
16, 2012. Later, in June 2012 FATF had reiterated that
laws on counter-terrorism
financing and anti-money laundering
in Pakistan either did not exist or were ineffective.
Further, in October 2012, FATF included Pakistan in its
Public Statement, underlining continuing deficiencies
in its AML/CTF regime.
Pakistan
had first been publicly identified by the FATF in February
2008 for deficiencies in its AML/CTF regime. On February
28, 2008, FATF urged Pakistan to continue its efforts
to improve its AML/CFT laws to come into closer compliance
with international AML/CFT standards and to work closely
with the APG to achieve this.
In response
to mounting concern over money laundering, FATF had been
established by the G-7 Summit that was held in Paris in
1989. FATF is a policy‐making body, whose objectives
include setting standards to combat money laundering and
the financing of terrorism and supporting implementation
of these standards. At present FATF has 36 members (including
India) along with two observers. APG is something of a
mini‐FATF and is committed to the effective implementation
and enforcement of standards set by FATF.
Developments
at FATF meets in 2015 clearly indicate that the international
community, or at least sections thereof, have either failed
to understand the Pakistani design or are willingly attempting
to underplay Islamabad’s role in international terrorism
and its willful failure to apply civilized norms of government
and enforcement to curb the menace. This is despite the
mounting evidence that nothing has changed on the ground
to suggest that Pakistan has stopped the export of terror
and the funding of terror groups.
Indeed,
as recently as on July 7, 2015, Pakistan's Interior Minister
Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan gave a clear indication to the
Upper House (Senate) of Pakistan’s Parliament that JuD,
the "public face" of LeT, was unlikely to be
banned and that, “JuD has been on observation under Section
11 D of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) 1997 since 15 November,
2003. The activities of JuD are monitored by law enforcement
agencies and if report of any of such activity (having
connection with LeT) that fulfils requirement of Section
11 B of ATA was presented, the organisation shall be proscribed.”
Section 11 B of ATA
1997 provides for the proscription
a terror organisation, while Section 11 D is meant to
keep organisations under observation where the Federal
Government has reason to believe that an organisation
is acting in a manner that suggests it may be linked to
terrorism.
Crucially,
JuD has been designated a terrorist organisation by the
US, UK, the European Union, Russia, Australia and, of
course, India. JuD’s 'chief' Saeed, the mastermind of
the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, openly engages in the collecting
funds to carry out his ‘charity work’ – and the organisation
is widely acknowledged as a front of LeT. Despite international
exposure and opprobrium, the Pakistani Government continues
to contribute to his various ‘charities’. The Pakistan
Muslim League-led Punjab State Government, for instance,
has long provided financial support to JuD for its ‘welfare’
activities. A grant-in-aid of PKR 61.35 million was given
to the administrator of the group’s training camp Markaz-e-Taiba
in the Provincial budget for fiscal year 2013–14. The
budget also included an allocation of PKR 350 million
for a knowledge park at Muridke – JuD’s headquarters –
and various other development initiatives across Punjab.
On March
25, 2015, Indian Minister of State for Home Haribhai Parathibhai
Chaudhary informed the Lok Sabha (Lower House of
Indian Parliament) that Pakistan, through its Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) continued to aid terror activities
in India by providing shelter, training, patronage and
financial assistance to terrorists.
Meanwhile,
Pakistan continues to pump increasing volumes of Fake
Indian Currency Notes (FICNs) into India and its neighbourhood
in its campaign to provide finances for Islamist terrorists,
and to destabilize the Indian Economy. According to a
July 2014 report quoting the Intelligence Bureau (IB),
Sri Lanka and Maldives have been identified as two new
transit destinations for FICN, with Chennai in Tamil Nadu
as the point of arrival. An unnamed IB official stated,
"Until now, FICN was known to come from Bangladesh
and Nepal. The addition of two more neighbours to this
list is rather worrying." Moreover, the ISI-run mafia
engaged in production of FICN has altered patterns of
circulation, increasingly emphasizing lower denomination
notes, INR 500 and below, as compared to an overwhelming
flow of INR 1,000 notes in the past. According to a report
by the Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB), "Pakistani
operators based in Nepal, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Thailand
act as recipients of FICN from Pakistan as well as conduits
to the distribution channels in India through air and
land border."
Under the
circumstances, the apparent eagerness of several members
of FATF, and of the organisation itself, to let Pakistan
off the hook is certainly surprising. In the present and
deeply unstable regional and international environment,
it would have been expected that the most stringent standards
would have been imposed on suspected state sponsors of
terrorism – a status that few in the global community
could honestly deny to Pakistan.
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Decisive
Moment
Deepak
Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On July
20, 2015, at least 62 persons, including three Security
Force (SF) personnel, were injured when agitating cadres
of Terai-based parties clashed with the Police in several
areas of Janakpur, Mahottari, Parsa and Saptari Districts
in the Terai region of Nepal.
The protestors
also targeted the leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and Unified Communist Party
of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M).
The CPN-UML leader and former Prime Minister (PM) Madhav
Kumar Nepal was attacked with chairs and stones by protesting
cadres at Gaur municipality in Rautahat District; cadres
of Madhesi Morcha, the Mohan Baidya-led Communist Party
of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Baidya) and the Matrika Yadav-led
Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Matrika)
pelted stones at UCPN-M Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka
Prachanda in the Mirchaiya area of Siraha District; protestors
also hurled three Petrol bombs targeting the vehicle carrying
Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat in Suryamati VDC (Village
Development Committee) in Nuwakot District on July 20.
Apart from these attacks on leaders, protestors also vandalised
public properties.
Again on
July 21, 2015, 75 persons, including SF personnel, were
injured as protestors clashed with SFs in several areas
of Bara, Dhanusha, Janakpur, Rupandehi Districts in Terai,
and in Makwanpur which shares a border with the Terai.
On the
same day, July 21, more than two dozen cadres of the Rastriya
Prajatantra Party-Nepal (RPP-N, a conservative national
party) including lawmaker Ganesh Thapa, were injured in
a clash with Police in Hetauda, the District headquarters
of Makwanpur. The clash ensued after a group of cadres,
led by RPP-N Chairman Kamal Thapa, forcefully entered
into the hall where public feedback collection on the
Draft Constitution was under way, and vandalised chairs
and the stage, demanding re-establishment of the Hindu
state.
On July
22, 2015, RPP-N, enforced a bandh (general shut
down) in the Hetauda area in Makwanpur. Daily life was
hit hard due to the bandh in Jhapa District as
well.
Further,
on July 24, 2015, normal life across Nepal was hit hard
by the bandh enforced by the Netra Bikram Chand-led
Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand), protesting
against the Constitution drafting process and the Lipu-Lekh
agreement, a trade agreement signed by India and China
to expand border trade at the Lipu-Lekh Pass – a piece
of land in Nepal bordering the two neighboring countries
- signed on May 15, 2015. The bandh enforcers had
vandalized five vehicles in Kathmandu and three in the
Lalitpur District. Police arrested 52 persons, including
CPN-Maoist-Chand’s senior leader Tilak Pariyar and Sharad
Rasaili, Chairperson of All Nepal National Free Students
Union-Revolutionary (ANNFSU-R), the student wing of the
CPN-Maoist-Chand, from various parts of Kathmandu. Seven
persons were arrested from the Banepa area of Kavre District,
which shares a border with the Terai region, as they were
organising a ‘torch procession’ on the eve of the bandh.
These recent
incidents of violent protests and bandhs followed
the July 9, 2015, decision
of the four major parties to collect
public opinion on the provisions of the draft Constitution.
Those opposing the decision – National Madhes Shadbhavana
Party (NMSP), Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Sadbhavana
Party (SP) and United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF)
– have decided to stall the process. Notably, soon after
the decision taken by the four major parties on the issue,
these groups had threatened severe protests if the major
political parties did not pay heed to their principal
demand, the inclusion of provisions in the Draft Constitution
for Nepal to be federated into 11 provinces as recommended
by the State
Restructuring Commission formed in 2011,
and not into eight as agreed in the 16-point
Agreement.
Significantly,
violent protests and bandhs continue to haunt Nepal
intermittently as the country struggles to resolve the
residual tensions of decades of precedent turmoil. At
its peak, insurgency-related fatalities in Nepal stood
at 4,896 – 3,992 Maoists, 666 SF personnel and 238 civilians
– in a single year, 2002. According to partial data compiled
by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the
country has registered no insurgency-related fatalities
since August 24, 2012, when unidentified assailants killed
the general secretary of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum
(MJF)-affiliated Factory Workers Union (FWU), Rama Shankar
Mandal in the Birgunj, area of Parsa District. However,
the country has recorded 26 incidents of street violence
and bandhs leading to four killings and 174 injuries
since then.
Just between
February 28, 2015, and March 30, 2015, during an earlier
cycle of political
turmoil, 83 persons, including 67
cadres of the UCPN-M-led 30-party alliance, 15 Policemen
and one minor were injured when sporadic clashes erupted
between the agitating activists of the alliance and Police
in different parts of the country. The protestors were
demanding that political parties reach a consensus on
drafting the new Constitution. According to the Nepal
Rastra Bank (NRB), the average direct cost of general
strikes in Nepal stood at Nepali Rupee (NPR) 1.8 billion
per strike day and NPR 27 billion per year, at current
prices, over 2008-2013.
Meanwhile,
amidst all these violent protests, the Constituent Assembly
(CA) concluded the process of collection of feedback on
the Draft Constitution on July 21, 2015. The CA had stipulated
two days (July 20–July 21) for feedback collection. A
total of 33,316 suggestions through various means of communications
were collected from 240 electoral constituencies. These
included 20,722 suggestions through website; 8,800 by
email; 2,471 from toll-free numbers; 1,080 through fax;
and 243 through postal service and direct submission at
the CA Secretariat. Some notable suggestions which came
from the public, include holding of direct elections for
key political positions such as President, Prime Minister,
lawmakers, and heads of ward committees of municipal or
VDC committees; fixing education qualification of executive
heads and lawmakers; determining the names and boundaries
of the federal units by the CA itself; removing secularism
and restoring Nepal as a Hindu State; among others.
The Constitution
writing process, incorporating the views collected from
the masses, is now approaching completion, and it will
be necessary for the CA to resist the pressure that is
being exerted by certain groups with vested interests.
Indeed, during an interview on June 26, 2015, Prime Minister
Koirala had already declared,
There
is no reason to doubt the trajectory of new Constitution.
It has already entered a process. Every Committee
of the Constituent Assembly is working on war footing.
There is not a moment to waste. You might consider
the Constitution done and dusted. No force can stop
it now. There is no time like now to reconstruct
the country and take it on the path of development
and prosperity. The recent disaster has only added
to the urgency. Our commitment is peace, development,
democracy and prosperity and there is no better
time to institutionalize them.
|
A time
bound approach and an inclusive Constitution incorporating
public feedback will certainly help stabilize Nepal and
create the conditions to meet the country’s many other
challenges. Crucially, according to a World Bank report
released on June 16, 2015, quake-hit Nepal needs fund
equivalent to one third of its economy to recover from
the disaster, which killed nearly 9,000 people in April-May
2015. The Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) prices
the damage at USD 5.15 billion, losses at USD 1.9 billion
and consequently recovery needs at USD 6.6 billion. Unless
the political turmoil is brought to an end, and a final
Constitution is established to guide the policies and
practices of successor Governments, the urgent requirements
of reconstruction and relief cannot be successfully addressed.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
July 20-27,
2015
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Islamist Extremism
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Left Wing
Extremism
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Total (BANGLADESH)
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Punjab
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
10
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Jharkhand
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Maharashtra
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Odisha
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
7
|
4
|
12
|
23
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
9
|
KP
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
Punjab
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Sindh
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
PAKISTAN
(Total)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
Gonojagoron
Mancha
starts
sit-in
demanding
SC
to
uphold
death
penalty
of
Salauddin
Quader
Chowdhury:
Gonojagoron
Mancha
(People's
Resurgence
Platform)
started
sit-in
in
Dhaka
city's
Shahbagh
on
July
24
demanding
the
Supreme
Court
(SC)
to
uphold
the
death
penalty
of
War
Criminal
and
Bangladesh
Nationalist
Party
(BNP)
standing
committee
member
Salauddin
Quader
Chowdhury.
Gonojagoron
Mancha
spokesperson
Imran
H
Sarker
said
they
would
gather
everyday
till
July
29
when
the
SC
will
deliver
its
verdict
on
the
appeal
of
BNP
leader
challenging
the
death
penalty.
Daily
Star,
July
25,
2015.
INDIA
10
persons
including
a
Superintendent
of
Police
killed
in
terror
attack
in
Punjab:
On
July
27,
a
total
of
10
persons,
including
three
civilians,
three
home
guards,
Gurdaspur
Superintendent
of
Police
(SP,
detective)
Baljit
Singh
and
three
militants
were
killed
in
a
coordinated
terror
attack
in
Gurdaspur
District
of
Punjab,
reports
The
Times
of
India.
Reportedly
the
militants
entered
into
Pathankot
District
in
Punjab
at
Paharipur
Border
outpost
from
Pakistan,
later
took
bus
to
Taragarh
Morh,
and
then
walked
towards
Dinanagar
in
Gurdaspur
District.
After
reaching
the
place
they
first
killed
one
civilian,
a
dhaba
owner,
then
snatched
a
car
and
headed
towards
the
Police
Station
of
Dinanagar.
While
travelling
towards
the
Police
Station,
they
killed
one
vegetable
vendor
and
sprayed
bullets
on
a
passing
bus.
After
reaching
the
Police
Station,
they
injured
SHO
Mukhtiar
Singh
before
holing
up.
Soon,
an
exchange
of
fire
began
between
Security
Force
personnel
and
the
militants.
Three
home
guards
and
SP
Baljit
Singh
were
killed
during
the
operation.
The
attack
ended
with
SFs
killing
all
the
three
attackers
involved
in
the
twin
attack.
No
terror
group
has
taken
responsibility
for
the
attack.
Times
of
India,
July
27-28,
2015.
Intelligence
intercepts
reveal
plot
to
'avenge'
hanging
of
1993
Mumbai
bomb
plotter,
Yakub
Memon:
The
security
agencies
have
got
a
trace
of
a
terror
plot
being
hatched
to
avenge
the
death
penalty
given
to
1993
Mumbai
blast
accused
Yakub
Memon.
Communication
intercepts
from
various
terror
groups
have
revealed
that
a
major
strike
may
be
carried
out
during
the
Independence
Day
celebrations
(August
15,
2015).
Memon
is
slated
to
be
hanged
on
July
30.
Daily
Mail,
July
24,
2015.
UNLFWESA
planning
to
strike
in
four
North
East
states:
Security
Forces
operating
in
Nagaland
have
revealed
that
the
newly
formed
United
National
Liberation
Front
of
Western
South
East
Asia
(UNLF-WESA),
is
planning
to
carry
out
major
terror
strikes
in
Nagaland,
Manipur,
Arunachal
Pradesh
and
Assam.
According
to
a
statement
issued
by
the
Inspector
General
of
Assam
Rifles,
intelligence
inputs
gathered
over
the
past
few
months
have
confirmed
that
a
number
of
highly
destructive
radio-controlled
Improvised
Explosive
Device
(IED)
have
been
smuggled
into
Nagaland.
Times
of
India,
July
23,
2015.
NSCN-K
has
stationed
militants
in
Nagaland
and
Arunachal
Pradesh,
states
Union
Minister
of
State
for
Home
Affairs
Kiren
Rijiu
in
Rajya
Sabha:
Khaplang
faction
of
National
Socialist
Council
of
Nagaland
(NSCN-K)
has
stationed
small
groups
of
militants
at
various
strategic
locations
in
Nagaland
and
Arunachal
Pradesh,
stated
Union
Minister
of
State
for
Home
Affairs
Kiren
Rijiu,
on
July
22.
He
also
stated,
"Most
of
these
groups
have
sneaked
into
Indian
territory
from
across
the
Indo-Myanmar
border."
Sangai
Express,
July
23,
2015.
UMHA
decides
to
formulate
national
strategy
to
tackle
IS:
The
Union
Ministry
of
Home
Affairs
(UMHA),
after
seeking
a
report
from
10
States,
has
decided
to
formulate
a
'coherent
national
strategy'
on
the
Islamic
State
(IS).
The
States
that
sent
their
reports
to
the
Centre
are
Uttar
Pradesh,
Bihar,
West
Bengal,
Karnataka,
Maharashtra,
Kerala,
Telangana,
Andhra
Pradesh,
Assam
and
Tamil
Nadu.
The
Hindu,
July
21,
2015.
Government
plans
crackdown
on
supply
of
arms
from
Myanmar:
As
part
of
its
multi-pronged
strategy
to
combat
insurgency
in
the
North-East,
Government
of
India
(GoI)
has
planned
a
crackdown
on
the
supply
of
sophisticated
weapons
to
militant
outfits
through
Myanmar.
National
Investigation
Agency
(NIA)
has
asked
state
Governments
affected
by
insurgency
in
the
North-East
to
provide
data
on
the
smuggling
of
weapons.
Sources
said
the
exercise
is
being
undertaken
to
crack
the
supply
base
of
the
easy
inflow
of
weapons
to
militants
from
Myanmar,
identify
couriers
and
middlemen
on
the
Indian
side
near
border
areas.
India
Today
,
July
23,
2015.
IS
and
Afzal
Guru's
hanging
influencing
educated
Kashmiri
youth
joining
terror,
according
to
UMHA:
Union
Ministry
of
Home
Affairs
has
attributed
the
spurt
in
educated
youth
in
Kashmir
joining
terrorist
organisations
this
year
to
the
thrust
of
the
militant
organisations
on
recruiting
local
youth
and
the
affect
of
hanging
of
Parliament
attack
accused
Afzal
Guru
besides
the
increasing
influence
of
the
IS
(Islamic
State).
As
per
the
UMHA
note
"mass
contact
programmes
launched
by
separatist
leaders"
and
the
extensive
use
of
social
media
by
anti-India
elements
also
contributed
to
educated
youths
taking
the
path
to
terror
while
the
perceived
"lack
of
credibility
of
mainstream
political
leaders"
and
absence
of
employment
opportunities
are
also
driving
the
youth
to
take
to
terror
activities.
Economic
Times,
July
21,
2015.
All
39
Indians
held
hostage
by
IS
in
Iraq
are
safe,
states
Union
Minister
of
State
for
External
Affairs
V
K
Singh:
All
the
39
Indians
held
hostage
in
Mosul
town
of
Iraq
by
Islamic
State
(IS)
militants
over
a
year
ago
were
"safe",
government
said
on
July
22
quoting
multiple
third
party
sources
and
asserted
that
efforts
were
on
to
secure
their
release.
The
Indian
nationals
were
taken
hostage
by
the
IS
on
June
11,
2014,
in
northern
Iraq's
Mosul
town.
Union
Minister
of
State
for
External
Affairs
V
K
Singh
said
government
was
in
"close
and
regular"
contact
with
relevant
Iraqi
government
authorities
to
obtain
information
on
their
whereabouts
and
safety.
Times
of
India,
July
23,
2015.
NEPAL
Four
major
political
parties
for
Constitution
by
August
15:
Leaders
from
four
major
political
forces
at
a
meeting
on
July
24,
decided
to
complete
the
task
of
Constitution
making
within
the
next
three
weeks
and
promulgate
it
by
August
15.
Top
leaders
from
Nepali
Congress
(NC),
Communist
Party
of
Nepal-Unified
Marxist
Leninist
(CPN-UML),
Unified
Communist
Party
of
Nepal-Maoist
(UCPN-M)
and
Madhesi
People's
Rights
Forum-Democratic
(MPRF-D),
decided
to
meet
Constituent
Assembly
(CA)
Chairman
Subas
Nembang
on
July
25,
and
informed
him
about
their
latest
plan.
Republica,
July
16,
2015.
PAKISTAN
Thousands
of
terrorists
arrested
in
operation
Zarb-e-Azb,
says
Special
Assistant
to
the
Prime
Minister
on
Foreign
Affairs,
Tariq
Fatemi:
Special
Assistant
to
the
Prime
Minister
on
Foreign
Affairs,
Tariq
Fatemi
on
July
23
said
that
thousands
of
terrorists
had
been
arrested
in
operation
Zarb-e-Azb
and
they
will
be
brought
to
justice
soon.
In
his
address
at
Heritage
Foundation,
Fatemi
said,
"Over
190,000
Pakistan
military
personnel
are
taking
part
in
Zarb-e-Azb,
launched
13
months
ago."
Pakistan
has
cleared
Shawal
area
near
Pak-Afghan
border,
he
maintained.
The News,
July
24,
2015.
PTI
chief
Imran
Khan
still
backs
talks
with
TTP:
The
Pakistan
Tehreek-i-Insaf
(PTI)
chief
Imran
Khan
on
July
22
again
reiterated
his
stance
that
negotiations
with
the
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP)
should
be
initiated.
"If
America
can
negotiate
with
the
Afghan
Taliban,
Pakistan
and
Afghanistan
should
also
negotiate
with
them
(Taliban),"
said
Imran.
Dawn,
July
24,
2015.
Without
choking
funding,
war
on
terror
can't
be
fought,
says
Supreme
Court:
The
Supreme
Court
on
July
22
observed
that
the
war
against
terrorism
could
not
be
fought
without
choking
funds
to
terror
outfits.
The
Supreme
Court
expressed
dissatisfaction
at
the
Federal
Government's
report
showing
a
lack
of
progress
on
the
establishment
of
the
Joint
Investigation
Directorate
(JID)
at
the
National
Counter-Terrorism
Authority
(NACTA),
the
most
important
organisation
tasked
to
implement
the
National
Action
Plan
to
deal
with
the
menace
of
terrorism.
The News,
July
23,
2015.
SRI
LANKA
Sri
Lankan
Army
says
it
has
only
'limited'
role
in
Northern
Province:
The
Sri
Lankan
Army
on
July
23
said
that
its
involvement
in
the
Northern
Province
is
limited
"only
to
demining,
construction
works
and
infrastructure
development
in
connection
with
the
resettlement
of
people".
Responding
to
a
questionnaire
sent
by
The
Hindu
last
month
on
the
status
of
the
Army's
presence
in
the
Northern
and
Eastern
Provinces,
it
said:
"We
have
almost
totally
disengaged
[ourselves]
from
non-military
activities."
The Hindu,
July
25,
2015.
LTTE
was
always
an
obstacle
to
reach
a
peaceful
solution
to
the
national
issue,
says
Foreign
Minister
Mangala
Samaraweera:
Foreign
Minister
Mangala
Samaraweera
said
that
the
Liberation
Tigers
of
Tamil
Eelam
(LTTE)
was
always
an
obstacle
to
reach
a
peaceful
solution
to
the
national
issue.
Samaraweera
said
that
the
terrorism
the
LTTE
unleashed,
even
against
the
Tamil
people,
resulted
in
the
Tigers
being
proscribed
in
many
countries.
He
said
the
solution
to
the
national
question
is
not
a
separate
state
as
the
LTTE
mistakenly
believed,
but
a
solution
which
can
address
the
genuine
grievances
of
the
Tamil
people
within
a
united
and
undivided
Sri
Lanka.
Colombo Gazette,
July
24,
2015.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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