SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 21, November 24, 2014

PAKISTAN

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Jama'at-ul-Ahrar: Obsessive Pursuits
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 21, 2014, two Security Force (SF) personnel were killed and two others were injured in a bomb attack targeting SFs vehicle on Warsak Road in Mathra Bazaar area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province. Ehsanullah Ehsan, the 'spokesman' of the Jama'at-ul-Ahrar (JuA, Group of the Free), a breakaway faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), while claiming responsibility for the attack said that the attack was revenge of one of their members who was killed in an operation by the army. He further warned, “We will continue to target the Pakistani military in the future.”

On November 18, 2014, two Policemen were killed and another was wounded in a targeted hand grenade attack in the Shabqadar tehsil (revenue unit) of Charsadda District in KP. Ehsanullah Ehsan the 'spokesman' of TTP-JuA claimed responsibility for the attack.

Earlier, on November 2, 2014, a suicide bomber blew himself up in the parking area, at least 500 meters from the Wagah Border with India, on the Pakistan side, killing 60 persons and injuring more than 150. One of the injured died later. Soon after the attack, three terrorist groups claimed responsibility for the attack. These included al Qaeda-affiliated anti-Shia group Jandullah, TTP’s Mahar Mehsud faction, and JuA. In order to establish its role in the attack on the Wagah border, JuA, however, went on to release three photographs of the suicide bomber involved in the attack. "Brother Hanifullah" the email sent by Ehsan to The Long War Journal read, "carried out successful martyrdom operation on murtad [a Muslim who rejects Islam] Army in Wagah Lahore."

On September 26, 2014, two activists of an anti-Taliban peace committee were killed and another seriously injured in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast in the Dawezai area of Pandyali tehsil in the Mohmand Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). JuA 'spokesman' Ehsan, claiming responsibility for the attack, warned that the peace committee members were targeted for fighting and spying against the 'Taliban', and that such attacks would continue on ‘pro-government paid people’ as they were the enemies of the Taliban.

Significantly, the announcement of the formation of JuA was made on August 26, 2014. Maulana Qasim Khorasani, the former head of the TTP-Swat Chapter, was appointed emir (chief) of TTP-JuA and Ehsanullah Ehsan its 'spokesman'. Declaring the formation, Ehsan stated, from an undisclosed location,  "the new group…only wanted the Sharia'h system to prevail in the country."

Other leaders of the JuA included a top TTP 'commander' from Mohmand Agency in FATA, Omar Khalid Khorasani, who was the former emir of the TTP-Mohmand Chapter. TTP-JuA's Shura (council) includes other important commanders, including Mansoor Nazim Shura and Maulana Haidar from Orakzai Agency; Maulana Adbullah from Bajaur Agency; Qari Ismail from Khyber Agency. It also boasts of 'commanders' from KP, including, Qari Shakil Haqqani from Charsadda District; Mufti Misbah from Peshawar District; and Maulana Yasin from Swat District.

Even before the formal creation of JuA, Omar Khalid had demonstrated his capacities by executing attacks on SF personnel and pro-government peace members living mainly in the tribal areas of the country. On June 10, 2014, for instance, cadres of his faction mounted an attack on a security checkpost near the Airport Security Force (ASF) Girls’ Hostel outside the Jinnah International Airport in Bhitaiabad locality of Pehlwan Goth area in Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town of Karachi. A Twitter account allegedly operated by Omar Khorasani, in a tweet, claimed the attack on the check post.  Significantly, the TTP had claimed responsibility for the attack on Karachi Airport on June 10, 2014 - the second attack following the June 8-9, 2014, attack at the Karachi Airport in which 24 people were killed. The then Omar Khalid faction of the TTP, on May 13, 2014, killed Safi peace committee leader Subidar Safi's nephew Jahangir Khan and injured his driver in an IED blast in the Safi tehsil of Mohmand Agency. Much earlier, on February 16, 2014, Omar Khalid issued a statement claiming that his group, which was running under his name, had executed 23 abducted Frontier Corps (FC) personnel in 'revenge' against the Government continuously killing their men in different parts of the country, including Karachi (Sindh), Peshawar and Swabi Districts (KP). He warned that if the Government did not stop killing TTP supporters, they would also continue to kill the SF personnel, and further, that that the killings were in response to the peace negotiations going on between TTP's Mullah Fazlullah faction and the Federal Government. The FC personnel had been abducted after an attack on a checkpost in Mohmand Agency on June 14, 2010.

The much-hyped 'peace deal' with the Mullah Fazlullah faction became the bone of contention between the two TTP leaders, leading Khorasan to finally distance himself from the parent outfit in August 2014.

Indeed, TTP has currently split into three groups – the Fazlullah faction, the Said Khan or Sajna faction and the JuA. Most of the former TTP allies have joined or pledged allegiance to one or other of these three groups. Reports  suggest that over 50 per cent of senior ‘commanders’ of the Fazlullah-led TTP from the Mohmand, Bajaur, Orakzai, Khyber and Kurram Agencies of FATA, and from Swat and Charsadda District of KP, have already joined JuA. Though the TTP split is a blow to the main umbrella outfit that once encompassed all the three forces, the ideological threat that these breakaway factions pose cannot be underestimated.

In this context, the threat from JuA is significant. On October 16, 2014, JuA released a video of a renegade former Pakistan Army officer, introducing him as Captain Dr. Tariq Ali (also known as Abu Obaidah Al-Islamabadi among Jihadi circles), asking military officers and soldiers to join JuA in their goal of implementing the Sharia'h and establishing the Islamic system. Speaking first in fluent Urdu and then in English, Ali addressed the "Junior and Middle ranking officers of the Pakistan Army":

"So many events have gone by since 9/11, 2001, in front of your eyes and so many atrocities in Pakistan have been committed either by yourself or in your name by the Americans. Becoming frontline ally of the Kuffar (infidels), invasion of tribal areas, kidnapping of Afia Siddiqui, arrest of thousands of Muslims and handing them over to the Kuffar, massacre of Muslim men, women and children inside Lal Masjid, martyrdom of great mujahid Sheikh Osama bin Laden, dropping bombs on civilian population of tribal areas and Swat, assisting the Kuffar to kill the Muslims, drone strikes, and there is a long list of crimes that have been committed by your Army since 2001...How on earth can somebody with an iota of imaan (faith) in his heart remain in this Army...? So you still have time to leave this Army. If somebody is really keen to fight, he should come and join an organisation that is fighting to implement the Sharia'h and establish Khilafa (Caliphate)... In the end, I would say a few words of advice to the generals although I don't see much hope there. But I must fulfill my duty of reminding you... I believe that you generals are responsible for every misery in Pakistan. You people do not implement the Sharia'h, in fact you fight against the one who wants to implement Sharia'h in Pakistan. I urge you [the generals], as a member of TTP-JuA, to get out of the way and let us implement the Sharia'h in Pakistan. But if you choose to fight us, by Allah, we shall come along with our men who love death more than you love this worldly life and you won't be able to fight us, with an army of Khilafa (Caliphs) behind us."

This statement comes at a time when the Pakistan Army has launched two operations in FATA, the "most dangerous place" in the world according to Pakistani journalist Shuja Nawaz. Operation Zarb-e-Azb ([Sword of the Prophet]) in North Waziristan Agency was launched on June 15, 2014; and Operation Khyber-I in Khyber Agency, launched on October 16, 2014. Both Operations are intended to weaken the ‘domestically oriented’ terrorist groups, but would have no impact on the broader environment of terrorism that the Pakistani state have allowed to flourish. The internal power struggles between terrorist formations and their sponsoring agencies and political supporters, and the splits within the larger TTP framework is only going to compound the threat.

Islamabad has failed to escape its conventional rhetoric and the dynamic that it has created through the selective support to terrorism, and to engage in a sustained ideological battle against the extremist Islamist ideology. This ideology has gripped the country with complete obduracy, and, despite the trajectory of individual groups and organisations, continues to be restructured and reorganized under different banners. This ideological backdrop has now been impacted by the even more virulent creed of the Islamic State (IS, formerly Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, ISIS) and organizations sympathetic or affiliated to it, which claim to be the guardians of the 'Islamic cause.'

TTP-JuA has clearly identified itself with the imminent establishment of a global ‘Islamic Caliphate' and advocates the Islamic dominance of a broader Khorasan movement, echoing the extremist IS ideology. On March 20, 2012, Khalid Omar Khorasan released a propaganda video in which he had enumerated five "important goals": overthrow Pakistani institutions; release both Pakistani and "foreign" fighters currently under state detention; impose Sharia'h law; obtain a nuclear weapon; and establish a global caliphate. These are objectives that JuA shares with a wide range of other Islamist extremist organizations, including many that continue to be supported by Pakistan's state establishment. It is abundantly clear, today, to all but the puppeteers of the Pakistani state, that the blowback of the Janus-faced policies they have pursued will eventually and cumulatively threaten the very existence of that state.

INDIA

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Kerala: Maoist shadow
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Two incidents of vandalism in quick succession by suspected cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) in Kerala have again brought the issue of the Maoists’ southern forays into the limelight.  

On November 18, 2014, six persons barged into the Agraharam Resort at Tirunelly in the Wayanad District of Kerala and broke the windowpanes of the resort’s office building, staff quarters and reception centre. They also damaged the furniture, computer, printer and other equipment kept in the office. They left after sticking wall-posts and posters declaring the celebration of the CPI-Maoist's 10th anniversary and demanding land for the landless.

On November 10, the corporate office of Nitta Gelatin India Ltd (NGIL) at Panampilly Nagar in Kochi was ransacked by a group of nine masked men, causing extensive damage. The masked men, suspected to be CPI-Maoist cadres, accused the company of polluting the Chalakkudy river and neglecting local people. A press note purportedly released by the Western Ghat Zonal Committee of the CPI-Maoist in Thrissur claimed that an 'urban action team' under the Committee had carried out the attack. Later, the Kochi Police Commissioner disclosed, “We have recovered a letter, which has reference to Maoists. The letter has called for armed struggle and indicates that Maoists have taken claim for the attack. But, whether Maoists were actually involved in the attack could be ascertained only after the probe.” Interestingly, the incident of vandalism was captured by the CCTV camera and the footage was handed over to the Police. The footage shows one man without a mask, but the Police are yet to identify the person. One among the nine-member team spoke Malayalam, while the others were native speakers of Hindi, the Police disclosed. The special squad probing the Nitta Gelatin corporate office attack case has invoked the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) against the nine unidentified men who carried out the attack. As part of the investigation, the Police has taken a few Maoist sympathisers into custody, for interrogation.

The Kochi incident has raised a few eyebrows, as there was no intelligence about Maoist presence in the city. The attack was in the heart of the city, and Kochi is the first major urban concentration in Kerala to record a Maoist attack. Interestingly, Maoist ‘commander’ Deva in Dandakaranya (DK) claimed, on November 16, that there was no Maoist involvement in the incident, and accused the Police of lying. He did, however, concede that the Maoists had deployed armed cadres in Kerala, though their number was not high, and that they did not enjoy a wide mass base in the State. The party was, however, working towards widening its mass base and increasing cadre strength, focusing on basic issues such as Jal, Jungle, Zameen (Water, Forests, Land), and power to the people. Specific issues relating to Kerala would also be looked into as the organisation expanded.

After the Wayanad incident, Kerala Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala stated, on November 18, that the Police had identified the modus operandi behind the attacks and, for security reasons, were refraining from giving publicity to the investigations: "The modus operandi behind these recent attacks is a ploy by a few organisations that have links with Maoists to get the sympathy of the local people." He added, further, that there were quite a few organisations in Kerala that acted as Maoist fronts, and that these Maoist-friendly groups targeted places and establishments where disputes are ongoing: "Through this, they are able to win the confidence of the locals. Their key target areas are quarries, resorts and establishments."

Some of the incidents that demonstrate the Maoist presence in Kerala in 2014 included:

November 13:   Maoist posters were found near the new bus stand, railway station and Cherkalain area of Kasargod District.

October 26: CPI-Maoist wall posters and notices appeared at some locations under Vadakara Police Station limits in the Kozhikode District of Kerala. The posters asked the people to join the CPI-Maoist for a new democratic, unexploited India by strengthening the 'class struggle'.

October 3: Flex boards exhorting the working class to prepare for an ‘armed battle’ against ‘ruling elites’ were seen in the Kallamala region of western Attappady in the Palakkad District. A few were installed at Poonchola and Pambbanthode villages close to Mannarkkad. The boards mentioned the celebration of the CPI-Maoist's 10th anniversary, and appealed to people to strengthen the party base in the three southern States.

September 22: Regional television channels in Kerala showed video clips, reportedly of CPI-Maoist leader Roopesh, threatening to launch an armed struggle in the State.

July 28: Kerala Police arrested a Swiss youth, identified as Jonathan Baud (24), after he addressed a meeting arranged by CPI-Maoist sympathisers at Valappad in Thrissur District to condole the death of their comrade V S Sinoj alias Ramesan who was accidentally killed while assembling crude bombs on June 16, 2014 in a forest. The Swiss national is out on bail but is yet to be allowed to leave the country, as the matter is being heard by the court.

July 6:  A group of CPI-Maoist cadres held a meeting of Adavasi (tribal) families at Vaniyampuzha Adivasi Colony, Munderi, in the Nilambur Forest of Malappuram District. About 60 Adivasis, including women, attended the meeting.

June 16: Senior CPI-Maoist leader from Kerala, Sinoj alias Rajan, was killed in an accidental blast while assembling explosives in the deep forests of Wayanad District.

April 24: A four-member armed group, suspected to be CPI-Maoist cadres, threatened a Police officer, Pramod Bhaskaran, and his mother at their house in Wayanad District.

According to an alert sent to the State by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on March 27, armed cadres belonging to the CPI-Maoist had earlier visited various Adivasi colonies in Kannur, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Malappuram and Palakkad at least 50 times, after they were first sighted in Kanjirakolly in Kannur district early in 2013.

State Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala acknowledged in the Assembly, on June 9, 2014, that there were reports of a Maoist “presence” in the forest and adjoining areas in six northern Districts of the State. Replying to questions in the House, he said the Government was in receipt of intelligence reports of Maoist “presence” in Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod Districts.

Besides, the State Home Minister said, "The intelligence wing has reported that some Maoists are masquerading as migrant labourers in Kerala". Further, Intelligence sources assume that the total recruitment of Maoists is currently at about 50 in the State. The assumption was based on information that CPI-Maoist cadres bought clothes to stitch around 50 new uniforms for the armed group. The Maoists are known to have one existing dalam (squad), the ‘Kabani Dhalam’, which functions in Wayanad District. State intelligence has also warned of the presence of Maoists in houseboats, in Alappuzha.

In view of the emerging Maoist threat in the State, the State Government, on February 21, 2014, directed the Police to fortify 16 Police Stations in north Kerala on ‘a war footing’. Further, the Government ordered 300 armed Policemen to the region to provide ‘perimeter defence and support’ to Thunderbolts Kerala, the special weapons and tactics team of the State Police, which was spearheading what the Government termed ‘anti-Naxal operations’. Wayanad District, where a six-member Maoist group was seen moving more frequently, would be the ‘base station’ for the operations. The State is also taking necessary precautionary measures to monitor the link between migrant workers and Maoist.

Seen in the light of the Maoists’ declaration of “opening up a new war front in the Sahyadri (Western Ghats) border region of Karnataka-Kerala-Tamil Nadu”, the Maoists are preparing for the long haul in the State, though such an effort is currently largely restricted to the widening of the mass base. The merger of the CPI-Maoist and the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist - Naxalbari (CPI-ML-Naxalbari), under the CPI-Maoist banner, on May 1, 2014, is a significant step in this direction. Though past efforts to extend the Maoist movement into the Southern States have met with little success, the Maoists are far from admitting defeat.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Tripura

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)