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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
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2,765 people died in terrorism-related violence in India during year 2006. A review of the data indicates that nearly 41 per cent of all such fatalities occurred in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) alone as a result of the Pakistan-backed separatist proxy war in that State. 27 per cent resulted from Left Wing Extremism (Maoism/Naxalism) across parts of 14 States, prominently including Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Karnataka. 23 per cent of the total fatalities in 2006 occurred in the multiple insurgencies of India’s Northeast. By comparison, year 2005 witnessed a total of 3,236 fatalities in terrorism-related incidents across the country. The fatality index, consequently, registered a definite decrease in year 2006. At least 231 of the country’s 608 Districts are currently afflicted, at differing intensities, by various insurgent and terrorist movements. Terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir (affecting 12 of the States 14 Districts), in different States of the Northeast (54 Districts) and Left Wing extremism (affecting at least 165 Districts in 14 States, estimate based on end-2005 data) continue to pose serious challenges to the country’s security framework. In addition, wide areas of the country appear to have ‘fallen off the map’ of good governance, and are acutely susceptible to violent political mobilization, lawlessness and organized criminal activity. Jammu and Kashmir Since 2002, terrorism-related fatalities have demonstrated a secular decline in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), and this trend continued in 2006, with a total of 1,116 persons killed. More than 40,000 people have lost their lives in the conflict since 1989, and, even at present, an average of nearly 100 lives is lost each month in J&K. Fatalities
in Terrorist
Violence
in Jammu
and Kashmir
Source:
Institute
for Conflict
Management
database.
(Note: Compiled from news reports and is provisional) Despite the declines in indices of violence, the State continues to suffer from high levels of violence and subversion. Pakistan’s military regime, which was forced to scale down its proxy-war under intense international scrutiny, has nevertheless shown no indication of dismantling the vast infrastructure of terrorism on its soil. According to the Union Home Ministry’s (MHA) "Status Paper on Internal Security Situation" (presented in Parliament on November 30, 2006), the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir is yet to be dismantled and is being "used by Pak based and Pak ISI sponsored outfits like JeM [Jaish-e-Mohammed], LeT [Lashkar-e-Toiba], Al-Badr, HM [Hizb-ul-Mujahideen], etc." Amidst the hype on people-to-people contacts and confidence-building measures (CBMs), it is evident that the reduced levels of violence in J&K primarily reflect a tactical rather than strategic shift in the Pakistani calculus, as a two-pronged strategy of parallel talks and terrorism is pursued by the Musharraf regime to secure its ambitions against India. Talks between India and Pakistan thus continue under the aegis of the Composite Dialogue, even as terrorism in J&K, and sporadically in other parts of the India, persists. At the same time, Pakistan has been complaining bitterly about the slow pace of ‘progress’ towards the goals it seeks to secure on the negotiating table, having failed to achieve these through its vicious campaign of terrorism over 17 years. The peace process, consequently, remains, tactical rather than substantive, as the hiatus between the rival positions on Kashmir remains unbridgeable, and much of the ‘progress’ has been in peripheral areas, such as the restoration of communication links, people-to-people exchanges, Track Two diplomacy and a range of confidence building measures. At the same time, the ground situation in J&K remains a cause for concern, as a stream of infiltrators continues to find its way into the terror wracked State. While the various CBMs currently operational between the two countries may have strengthened processes of 'emotional enlistment', have failed to alter India's and Pakistan's stated positions on the Kashmir issue, or to change the fundamentals of the conflict in and over Kashmir. An end to the bloodshed in the State, consequently, seems as unlikely today as it was at any given point since the dramatic escalation of the militancy in 1989-90. The Northeast There has been a marginal improvement in the levels of militancy in the Northeast. While 715 people died in 2005, 627 people were killed in militancy-related violence during 2006. Nevertheless, certain States of the region have shown remarkable signs of recovery in recent years. Tripura, once considered to be one of the most violent States of the country, recorded 59 insurgency-related fatalities in 2006, down from 75 in 2005, and from a peak of 514 in 2000. Tripura is "carving out a success story in the troubled setting of India’s Northeast, as its Police force reorganizes radically to evolve a counter-insurgency strategy that has left entrenched militant groups in disarray." Building on a "model of a police-led response to terrorism, which saw the country’s most dramatic victory over this modern scourge in Punjab in the early 1990s, Tripura’s Police, under the leadership of its Chief, G.M. Srivastava, has reversed the trajectory of insurgent violence and, crucially, mobilisation… despite continued and vigorous support provided to the insurgent groups by Bangladesh, and the safe haven each of these outfits has been provided in that country." The gains in Tripura are more than offset by the losses in Manipur, which, at 280 fatalities, now accounts for nearly 45 per cent of the fatalities in the Northeast – with just 5.6 per cent of the region’s population. Manipur thus remains the most violent State in the region, although there is a relative decline in violence, with total fatalities registering a decline from 331 in 2005. While a number of other States in the Northeast have or are being reclaimed from protracted insurgencies, Manipur continues to remain volatile. Large-scale extortion and its impact on ordinary lives, as well as on the lives of people at the helm of affairs in the State, are symptomatic of the virtual collapse of governance in the State. Assam too remains a disturbed State with 174 deaths in 2006 compared to 242 fatalities in 2005. Assam, which attracts far greater national attention and accounts for 69 per cent of the population of the Northeast, saw 174 fatalities in 2006, as against 242 in 2005. The militancy in Assam persists despite continuous and successful operations by the Security Forces, with the principal terrorist groups – particularly the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) – finding permanent safe haven and significant state support across the border in Bangladesh. Nagaland, where a ‘peace process’ has been in place since 1997, saw the third largest number of fatalities in the region in 2006, with 90 dead, overwhelmingly in the fratricidal turf-war between the rival Isak-Muivah and Khaplang factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland. Both the militant outfits (NSCN-IM and NSCN-K) are in cease-fire agreements with the Government in Nagaland, but the Government continues been held hostage to the diktats of the insurgent groups. The process of negotiations has been complicated by insurgent groups that have appropriated the attributes of criminal and extortionist gangs, and successfully circumvent the due process of law by their engagement in the negotiation process with the Government. The fight against insurgency in Meghalaya, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh remains largely successful. Fatalities
in Terrorist
Violence
in India's
Northeast,
2005-2006
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