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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 33, February 28, 2005
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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No War, No Peace
Guest Writer: Ameen Izzadeen
Deputy Editor of the Colombo based Sunday Times and
Daily Mirror
Sri Lanka has been fortunate to survive without war for
the past three years, and a sigh of relief passed across
the country as it marked the third anniversary of the ceasefire
agreement signed between the Government and the rebel Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
on February 22, 2002. Even ardent opponents of the truce
acknowledge that the ceasefire and the absence of a full-scale
conflict over the past three years has saved valuable lives
and property.
Behind this
positive picture is a different and melancholy story - a
story of lost opportunities and lack of progress. Three
years ago, there was enthusiasm all round, with peace talks
resuming in the Thai resort town of Satahip. There was an
economic boom riding on the expectation that the curse of
two decades was finally over. Three years later, there is
no peace, no war, and no talks. The only reality is the
ceasefire agreement, which the two parties continue to adhere
to for strategic reasons, despite ceasefire violations by
both sides. Meanwhile, efforts to bring them together have
not ceased, with Norwegian peace facilitators making regular
visits, shuttling between Colombo and the LTTE base in Kilinochchi
and also between Oslo and London where the LTTE's chief
negotiator, Anton Balasingham, is domiciled.
Norwegian Special Envoy, Erik Solheim, was in Sri Lanka
last week in yet another effort to bring the two sides face-to-face.
This time, his effort was aimed more at reaching an agreement
on a joint mechanism to handle the tsunami aid and relief
work in the North and East, than the peace process per
se. But there was no breakthrough, and he had to leave
empty-handed - a situation, which the Norwegians have become
accustomed to - after listening to complaints from both
sides.
Both the Government and the LTTE need the foreign funds
to bolster their respective positions. The LTTE also eyes
a big share in the multi-billion-dollar aid package, which
the international community has promised - though much of
this aid remains only a distant promise. There appears to
be significant donor pressure on the Government to come
to some sort of a deal with the LTTE on the tsunami relief
work before they release any funds. Earlier the donors had
linked the release of a 4.5 billion dollar aid package to
the resumption of the peace process.
A desperate Government, caught in a catch-22 situation,
cannot accede to the LTTE's demands without risking its
narrow Parliamentary majority. On Wednesday, February 23,
2005, the Government Information Department issued a statement
declaring that the Government was prepared to resume talks
to set up, first, an interim arrangement to handle the urgent
humanitarian needs of the people, and then to proceed to
discuss the final solution to the prolonged ethnic crisis.
The remarks drew an angry response from the coalition partner,
the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which threatened to
walk out of the Government if the talks on the interim authority
took place before a final solution to the ethnic conflict
was found. The main opposition United National Party (UNP)
welcomed the Government's statement and offered its unstinted
support.
But just as Kumaratunga defied the JVP threat and agreed
to go the extra mile for the sake of peace, the LTTE appears
to have toughened its stance and escalated demands. The
LTTE's position was that the talks should focus only on
its proposals for an interim self-governing authority for
the North and East. But in the aftermath of the killing
of the LTTE's eastern leader, E. Kaushalyan, on February
7, 2005, the rebels are now demanding that the Government
should dismantle all paramilitary groups - an obvious reference
to the breakaway Karuna faction. The LTTE accuses the Government
of complicity in the Kaushalyan killing and strongly believes
that the military is providing shelter to renegade LTTE
cadres loyal to Karuna.
On February 14, 2005, Tiger ideologue Balasingham told Solheim
at a meeting in London that the Sri Lankan Government had
to take steps to restore confidence in the peace process,
in particular by disarming paramilitaries working alongside
its armed forces, and to establish a joint mechanism with
the LTTE for post-tsunami aid. The two new demands have
not only made the Tiger's stance tougher but also made the
Government's search for peace difficult.
The President's response to Tiger allegations came in a
statement on Friday, February 25, 2005, which quoted Chandrika
Kumaratunga as having told Solheim that there were no paramilitaries
working with the armed forces and unreservedly condemned
the killing of Kaushalyan. She also expressed her Government's
commitment to discuss "a working arrangement with the LTTE
for the equitable allocation and implementation of post-tsunami
aid".
Whether the Tigers would accept her words or insist on action
is yet to be seen.
Against this backdrop, a political crisis is brewing inside
the Government with President Kumaratunga, who is on her
last year in office, now apparently regretting her alliance
with the JVP. Two Sundays ago, addressing a public gathering,
she fired salvos at the JVP, accusing it of being an obstacle
to peace and asking it to leave the Government if it did
not agree with her policies.
If the JVP, which has 39 seats in the legislature, quits,
her Government can survive only if she gets the support
of her main rival, the UNP. But, with battle lines being
drawn for a presidential race this or next year, the UNP's
cooperation will not be forthcoming or will be limited only
to the extent of securing political gains. Adding to the
crisis, the Ceylon Workers Congress, a party which derives
its strength from the people of Indian origin, has decided
to withdraw its support to the Government. If the party
carries out its threat, the Government would once again
lapse into a minority, with the joint opposition calling
the shots.
The Tigers will certainly be keeping close tabs on these
political developments, since southern politics is one of
the factors that shape the peace process. The Tigers may
also cling on to the ceasefire till the current political
crisis has produced an outcome. The Tigers are also aware
that they can get foreign aid for development only if they
keep away from violence. They are, however, also aware that
if the current situation of 'no war, no peace,' continues
it will make them politically and administratively impotent
and lead to the erosion of their support base. In the words
of one pro-Tiger analyst, a politically and administratively
impotent LTTE that cannot deliver anything socially or economically
concrete to the Tamils should, in theory, crumble inevitably
if it is held for a sufficiently long time in a no war no
peace situation.
The LTTE is not unmindful of this stock counter insurgency
wisdom.
At Kaushalyan's funeral, the LTTE said its patience was
running thin and warned the Government of a 'fitting response'.
On Wednesday, February 23, 2005, LTTE cadres killed a soldier
and wounded another in Killali in the North. The LTTE did
not mince words to claim the responsibility for the incident.
"Yes, we did it, so what" was its attitude.
In the three years of ceasefire, Wednesday's incident was
just another violation. When the Tigers are accused of ceasefire
violations they respond with ease by pointing to the Government's
ceasefire violations, which are largely unseen. They claim,
for instance, that the Government has not fulfilled its
pledges to vacate all public buildings and homes in the
North East and to disarm paramilitaries. Besides, the LTTE
claims that the Government has also upset the military balance
by buying arms from Iran and Pakistan under multi-million
dollar credit lines, adding that the flow of tsunami aid
has emboldened the Government to take this step.
On the other hand, the Government accuses the LTTE of covertly
building up its military machine even as the country was
grappled with the tsunami disaster. It is alleged that the
Tigers have obtained military hardware under the cover of
tsunami relief. Tsunami aid cargoes destined for the LTTE
and detected at the airport have included two helicopters,
ammunition and a consignment of body armour.
The Government fears that the LTTE has grown from strength
to strength during the ceasefire. According to defence officials,
it has not only accrued air power, but also swelled its
ranks with child soldiers. As of February 2004, there were
more than 1,250 child soldiers in LTTE camps, but the real
figure could be much higher, according to UNICEF. If a resolution
currently being discussed by the United Nations Security
Council is adopted next month, there would be targeted sanctions
against Governments and rebel leaders who continue to recruit
child soldiers. The LTTE is likely to play the peace card
to circumvent international sanctions.
Thus the no-peace-no-war situation is expected to continue
till the LTTE finds the correct political and military coordinates
to take its next step. In Sri Lanka's conflict resolution
exercise, it is the LTTE which still calls the shots.
From
Denial to Tentative Confrontation
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 24, 2005, Prime Minister Khaleda Zia instructed
the Home Ministry and the intelligence agencies to 'root
out' Islamist militants, their hideouts and subversive activities.
She also decided in principle to set up an additional bench
at the High Court to ensure speedy trial of cases of subversive
acts. The orders came after the Government decided to ban
the Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB)
and Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), accusing them
of a large number of bomb attacks and killings in recent
times. A press note to the effect read: "The Government
notices with concern that two organisations called Jagrata
Muslim Janata Bangladesh and Jama'atul Mujahideen have been
carrying out a series of murders, robberies, bomb attacks,
threats and various kinds of terrorist acts causing deaths
to peace-loving people and destruction of property. Under
the circumstances, the government announces enforcement
of ban on all activities of Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh
and Jama'atul Muhjahideen."
The Daily
Star, on February 24, described the Government decision
to proscribe the JMJB as "Eating own words". Only a month
earlier, State Minister for Home, Lutfozzaman Babar, had
emphatically denied the existence of the JMJB and had said
on January 26, "We don't know officially about the existence
of the JMJB. Only some so-called newspapers are publishing
reports on it. We don't have their constitution in our record."
Babar was reacting to a spate of reports documenting the
activities of the JMJB
and evidence of its linkages with at
least a section of the political establishment and administration.
The past week has witnessed several raids on the JMJB and
JMB establishments across the country and arrests of key
leaders and activists. Police personnel arrested a Professor
of Arabic at Rajshahi University, Dr. Muhammad Asadullah
al-Ghalib, chief of the Islamist organisation, Ahle Hadith
Andolon Bangladesh (AHAB), and three of his close associates
on February 23. On the same day, three JMB operatives in
Gaibandha and two in Rangpur, as well as two JMJB activists
in Rajshahi were also arrested in a police crackdown in
the northern parts of the country. Eleven JMB activists
were arrested from different places in the Dinajpur and
Thakurgaon districts on February 24. On February 25, two
JMB cadres Qaree Nazrul, a teacher at the Shibganj Hajardighi
Islamia Madrassa, and Nurul Islam, a teacher at Chandpur
Dakhil Madrassa, were arrested from Shibganj in the Chapai
Nawabganj district.
The current flurry of Governmental activism (the present
regime has largely been seen as a benefactor or at least
a mute spectator to the steady growth of Islamist radicalism
in the country) was preceded by a well documented publication
by the opposition Awami League (AL), titled Growing fanaticism
and extremism in Bangladesh: Shades of Taliban. Released
on February 13, 2005, the 74-page
document, apart from its inherent political
import, was significant on three grounds.
- It marked a widening
of the divide in the polarized politics of the two primary
political parties in the country. The AL has now taken
its 'war' with the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party
(BNP) to the international audience.
- The AL has enormously
increased pressure on the BNP-led regime to respond to
mounting Islamist extremist activities in the country.
- It is one of the first
detailed documentation by an 'internal' source in Bangladesh,
of systemic acts of State-tolerated terror, which have
been repeatedly highlighted by a number of foreign news
agencies and organisations, including SAIR, over the past
years.
The AL report
documents at least 34 bomb blasts between 1999 and February
2005, in which 164 persons have been killed and 1,735 people
have been injured. While the magnitude of attacks and casualties
recorded would count for little in a country with Bangladesh's
profile, a pattern appears to be developing. The bomb attacks
have mixed in with a much wider campaign of intimidation,
violence and terror, even as the number of bombings demonstrates
rising trends. An analysis of the bombing incidents in the
AL report shows that, while there were just 13 bomb attacks
between 1999 and 2003, the year 2004 alone witnessed 13
such attacks, and there have been another eight within the
first two months of 2005.
With implicit patronage from the current regime, or a benign
disregard of their activities, the Islamist forces in the
country, have systematically targeted Opposition political
parties like the AL, as well as minorities such as the Ahmadiyyas
and Hindus, progressives and intellectuals. The January
27, 2005, grenade attack at Boidder Bazar in Habiganj district,
in which former Finance Minister and AL Parliamentarian,
S.A.M.S. Kibria was killed, appears to have breached the
limits of the AL's patience, provoking the new report. The
AL had witnessed a similar attack at a rally addressed by
its Chief and former Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina Wajed,
on August 21, 2004 in Dhaka. Eight of the 34 bomb attacks
documented by the AL Report have targeted the AL; nine were
detonated during cultural functions such as jatras
and fairs; and five occurred at religious shrines, including
the one in the shrine of Hazrat Shahjalal in Sylhet on May
21, 2004, in which the British High Commissioner was injured.
The AL Report notes, "The selective and deliberate targeting
of AL and the like-minded secular and progressive forces,
cultural organisations, religious minority groups and entertainment
places such as movie halls or local fairs indicates a clear
pattern that clearly unmasks the identity of perpetrators
of such crimes and their ideology."
Does recent action by the Government mean that Bangladesh
is now on a changed track? There has been wide speculation
that the Government's steps were precipitated by pressure
from Western donor agencies and diplomatic circles, provoking
the State Minister for Home, Lutfozzaman Babar, to deny
any foreign pressure. Babar told the British Broadcasting
Corporation's Bangla service on February 23, 2005, "We did
not receive any international pressure to ban them. The
Government has done it out of its sense of responsibility."
Nevertheless, this sudden 'sense of responsibility' does
appear to have been excited by mounting external pressures
and perceptions, including the hard stand taken by the European
Union on the regime's 'apathy in tackling the situation'
and the belief that Bangladesh's slide towards a fundamentalist
regime continues unabated. Although the World Bank and the
Asian Development Bank (ADB) appear to have taken a softer
stand, lauding Bangladesh for its 'impressive performance'
in many social sectors, the overall impression is that the
situation in the country has been deteriorating fast and
the Government has failed to improve governance. Bangladesh's
development partners rounded off a meeting at the Watergate
Hotel in Washington on February 25, 2005, with an expression
of concern regarding deteriorating governance, and deciding
to keep a close watch on how the Government tackles the
rise of fundamentalist militancy and improves the overall
scenario of governance. A joint statement issued at the
end of the meet stated, "The participants, by consensus,
expressed serious concern at the deterioration of the governance
situation in Bangladesh, especially the situation of law
and order, political violence including recent bombings,
and the climate of impunity."
Despite the intensity of external pressure, the early 'positive'
signs could be deceptive. Amidst the Prime Minister and
the President's call for strong concerted action against
Islamist fundamentalism in the country, there are already
indications that the current phase of activism might not
last long. The Daily Star on February 26, 2005, reported
that, on February 24, a day after the Government ban on
the JMJB, 50 cadres of the outfit gathered in a meeting
at the house of an Islamist fundamentalist leader in Bhabaniganj
Bazar. In Bagmara, JMJB leaders in many areas continued
to organise their fellow workers. Among them were JMJB Bagmara
unit president, Lutfar Rahman, a Professor at Atrai Mollah
Azad Memorial College; Sakoa college teacher Shahidullah;
Bhabaniganj college teachers Abed Ali, Abdur Razzak and
Kalimuddin; Ibrahim of Jhikra and Akkas of Goalkandi. Similarly,
even three days after the arrest of the AHAB amir (chief)
Dr. Muhammad Asadullah Al Galib and his three top aides,
police had not arrested any of Galib's known associates.
Galib is the suspected kingpin of Islamist militants in
the western region, and a large number of documents in his
office and the various AHAB-run madrasas were left
untouched by the Government at the time of, and after, his
arrest. On another front, the Independent reported
on February 26 that all the accused in the April 2, 2004
Chittagong arms recovery case, billed as the biggest in
the country's history, had been released on bail.
The BNP is bound to find itself in an unenviable position
once its Islamist alliance partners in the coalition Government
begin to act to protect their 'interests'. On February 24,
Fazlul Haque Amini, Chairman of a faction of the Islami
Oikyo Jote (IOJ), warned at a public meeting in Mymensingh,
"We'll sharply react if any Islamic leader falls victim
to the ongoing operation." He also said that there was a
conspiracy to prevent Islamic revolution in the name of
taming the Islamist militants, "But the conspirators will
not succeed." On the same day, Maulana Abdur Rob Yousufi,
Secretary General of another faction of the IOJ, opposed
the ban on the JMJB and JMB, declaring, "There's no Islamic
militant organisation in the country". It is a matter of
time before such statements are translated into political
action. It remains to be seen whether the BNP chooses to
alienate its alliance partners to secure greater appreciation
and support from the outside world.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts
in South Asia
February
21-27, 2005
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Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
INDIA
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
3
|
5
|
17
|
25
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
16
|
Manipur
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
9
|
12
|
28
|
49
|
NEPAL
|
7
|
16
|
39
|
62
|
PAKISTAN
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
SRI LANKA
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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BANGLADESH
Jagrata Muslim
Janata Bangladesh and Jamaatul Mujahidin proscribed: On
February 23, 2005, the Ministry of Home Affairs announced a
ban on the vigilante Islamist groups, Jagrata Muslim Janata
Bangladesh (JMJB),
and Jamaatul Mujahidin. "The two banned organisations have been
engaged in killing, dacoity, bomb attacks, issuing threats and
other subversive activities in different parts of the country,
endangering the lives of the common people and destroying their
property," said a press note issued by the Ministry. The police,
meanwhile, arrested a Professor of Arabic at Rajshahi University,
Dr. Muhammad Asadullah al-Ghalib, chief of another Islamist
outfit, the Ahle Hadith Andolon Bangladesh, and three of his
close associates. With the latest proscription, the number of
banned Islamist organisations has now increased to three. On
February 9, 2002, the Government had outlawed the Shahdat al
Hiqma, which operates in the Rajshahi region. The
Daily Star, February 24, 2005.
INDIA
Three police
personnel among six persons killed during Fidayeen attack
in Srinagar: Three police personnel, a woman employee of the
Revenue Department and two terrorists were killed and four persons
sustained injuries during a fidayeen (suicide squad) attack
at the Divisional Commissioner's office in the capital of Jammu
and Kashmir, Srinagar, on February 24, 2005. The two terrorists
forced their entry into the Revenue Complex while throwing a grenade
and firing on the guards, at 1500 hours (IST). Three police personnel
were killed in the initial round of firing and an equal number
sustained injuries. Both terrorists were shot dead in the subsequent
gun-battle. Around 250 people, including the Srinagar Deputy Commissioner
and the Deputy Inspector-General of Police (Kashmir Range), were
in the building at the time of the attack. This was the second
fidayeen attack of the year in Kashmir valley. A spokesperson
of the Al
Badr told local news agencies over telephone
that cadres of his outfit had carried out the Fidayeen
attack. He reportedly identified them as Irfan Bhai and Sikandar
Bhai, residents of Gujarat in Pakistan. Daily
Excelsior, February 25, 2005.
NEPAL
Maoist insurgents
withdraw blockade: The Maoist
insurgents have reportedly withdrawn their
two week-old indefinite blockade on major highways with immediate
effect from February 26, 2005. The Maoists' student wing, the
All Nepal National Free Students Union (Revolutionary), has also
followed suit by calling off its indefinite strike at educational
institutions across the country. In a statement, the Maoist chairman,
Prachanda, said his party had decided to suspend the call for
an indefinite transport strike and blockade of the highways for
the present, "realizing a serious responsibility towards the people."
He, however, said that they would launch fresh protests if a "forward-looking
political way out" could not be worked out. Nepal
News, February 27, 2005.
India and Britain suspend military aid to Nepal: On February
22, 2005, Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson, Navtej
Sarna, while stating that no military supplies had been delivered
to Nepal since February 1, 2005, added that India has urged the
Nepalese Government to restore political processes, lift restrictions
on the press and release all detained political leaders, academics
and rights activists. "The issue of military supplies to Nepal
has been under continuous review taking into account the evolving
situation in that country", said Sarna.
On the same day, British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, stated
that the British Government had decided to suspend a planned package
of military assistance to Nepal and added, "We are now considering
with key international partners what our longer term policy for
providing assistance to Nepal should be, including assistance
with a humanitarian purpose." The three million pound package
of non-lethal equipments included vehicles, night flying and communication
devices and bomb disposal equipment. The
Hindu; The
Himalayan Times, February 23, 2005.
PAKISTAN
National Economic
Council approves new security plan for Balochistan province:
The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC)
has reportedly approved Rupees 9.6 billion for converting 'B'
Areas of Balochistan into 'A' and the raising of 6,000 additional
force for the Balochistan Constabulary. The ECNEC in its meeting
at Islamabad on February 25, 2005, headed by Prime Minister Shaukat
Aziz, also approved 39 projects worth Rupees 124.5 billion, including
23 new projects costing Rupees 98.5 billion. Important projects
in the area of governance include conversion of 25 'B' districts
of Balochistan into 'A' areas at a cost of Rupees 5.5 billion,
and an additional Rupees 4.14 billion to raise a force of 6,000
Balochistan Constabulary (existing 4000). Currently, 5 per cent
of the province was 'A area', while 95 per cent was 'B', where
the police did not operate. Jang,
February 26, 2005.
US have paid Pakistanis $57m for information on Al Qaeda: The
United States has disbursed a sum of $57 million to people in
Pakistan who provided information on the Al
Qaeda and other terrorist groups, according
to a senior US official. The official told Christian Science
Monitor which carried a report in its February 22, 2005, issue
on the TV advertising campaign currently being run in Pakistan
to capture Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda operatives. The
unnamed official reportedly said, "This kind of thing has worked
before, both here in Pakistan, and in Colombia as well," adding
that $57 million has been disbursed thus far under this programme
in Pakistan and some of the arrests have been as a result of tip-offs.
The advertisements are being broadcast in Urdu, Sindhi, Balochi
and Pushto languages along with images of Laden, Ayman al-Zawahri
and Mullah Omar. Daily
Times, February 23, 2005.
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The South
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