INDIA
PAKISTAN
NEPAL
BHUTAN
BANGLADESH
SRI LANKA
Terrorism Update
Latest
S.A.Overview
Publication
Show/Hide Search
HomePrint
 
    Click to Enlarge
   

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 33, February 28, 2005

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal



ASSESSMENT

 

SRI LANKA

No War, No Peace
Guest Writer: Ameen Izzadeen
Deputy Editor of the Colombo based Sunday Times and Daily Mirror

Sri Lanka has been fortunate to survive without war for the past three years, and a sigh of relief passed across the country as it marked the third anniversary of the ceasefire agreement signed between the Government and the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) on February 22, 2002. Even ardent opponents of the truce acknowledge that the ceasefire and the absence of a full-scale conflict over the past three years has saved valuable lives and property.

  Also Read
Aid adds Venom to Politics -- Ameen Izzadeen
Terror Speaks -- Saji Cherian

Behind this positive picture is a different and melancholy story - a story of lost opportunities and lack of progress. Three years ago, there was enthusiasm all round, with peace talks resuming in the Thai resort town of Satahip. There was an economic boom riding on the expectation that the curse of two decades was finally over. Three years later, there is no peace, no war, and no talks. The only reality is the ceasefire agreement, which the two parties continue to adhere to for strategic reasons, despite ceasefire violations by both sides. Meanwhile, efforts to bring them together have not ceased, with Norwegian peace facilitators making regular visits, shuttling between Colombo and the LTTE base in Kilinochchi and also between Oslo and London where the LTTE's chief negotiator, Anton Balasingham, is domiciled.

Norwegian Special Envoy, Erik Solheim, was in Sri Lanka last week in yet another effort to bring the two sides face-to-face. This time, his effort was aimed more at reaching an agreement on a joint mechanism to handle the tsunami aid and relief work in the North and East, than the peace process per se. But there was no breakthrough, and he had to leave empty-handed - a situation, which the Norwegians have become accustomed to - after listening to complaints from both sides.

Both the Government and the LTTE need the foreign funds to bolster their respective positions. The LTTE also eyes a big share in the multi-billion-dollar aid package, which the international community has promised - though much of this aid remains only a distant promise. There appears to be significant donor pressure on the Government to come to some sort of a deal with the LTTE on the tsunami relief work before they release any funds. Earlier the donors had linked the release of a 4.5 billion dollar aid package to the resumption of the peace process.

A desperate Government, caught in a catch-22 situation, cannot accede to the LTTE's demands without risking its narrow Parliamentary majority. On Wednesday, February 23, 2005, the Government Information Department issued a statement declaring that the Government was prepared to resume talks to set up, first, an interim arrangement to handle the urgent humanitarian needs of the people, and then to proceed to discuss the final solution to the prolonged ethnic crisis. The remarks drew an angry response from the coalition partner, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which threatened to walk out of the Government if the talks on the interim authority took place before a final solution to the ethnic conflict was found. The main opposition United National Party (UNP) welcomed the Government's statement and offered its unstinted support.

But just as Kumaratunga defied the JVP threat and agreed to go the extra mile for the sake of peace, the LTTE appears to have toughened its stance and escalated demands. The LTTE's position was that the talks should focus only on its proposals for an interim self-governing authority for the North and East. But in the aftermath of the killing of the LTTE's eastern leader, E. Kaushalyan, on February 7, 2005, the rebels are now demanding that the Government should dismantle all paramilitary groups - an obvious reference to the breakaway Karuna faction. The LTTE accuses the Government of complicity in the Kaushalyan killing and strongly believes that the military is providing shelter to renegade LTTE cadres loyal to Karuna.

On February 14, 2005, Tiger ideologue Balasingham told Solheim at a meeting in London that the Sri Lankan Government had to take steps to restore confidence in the peace process, in particular by disarming paramilitaries working alongside its armed forces, and to establish a joint mechanism with the LTTE for post-tsunami aid. The two new demands have not only made the Tiger's stance tougher but also made the Government's search for peace difficult.

The President's response to Tiger allegations came in a statement on Friday, February 25, 2005, which quoted Chandrika Kumaratunga as having told Solheim that there were no paramilitaries working with the armed forces and unreservedly condemned the killing of Kaushalyan. She also expressed her Government's commitment to discuss "a working arrangement with the LTTE for the equitable allocation and implementation of post-tsunami aid".

Whether the Tigers would accept her words or insist on action is yet to be seen.

Against this backdrop, a political crisis is brewing inside the Government with President Kumaratunga, who is on her last year in office, now apparently regretting her alliance with the JVP. Two Sundays ago, addressing a public gathering, she fired salvos at the JVP, accusing it of being an obstacle to peace and asking it to leave the Government if it did not agree with her policies.

If the JVP, which has 39 seats in the legislature, quits, her Government can survive only if she gets the support of her main rival, the UNP. But, with battle lines being drawn for a presidential race this or next year, the UNP's cooperation will not be forthcoming or will be limited only to the extent of securing political gains. Adding to the crisis, the Ceylon Workers Congress, a party which derives its strength from the people of Indian origin, has decided to withdraw its support to the Government. If the party carries out its threat, the Government would once again lapse into a minority, with the joint opposition calling the shots.

The Tigers will certainly be keeping close tabs on these political developments, since southern politics is one of the factors that shape the peace process. The Tigers may also cling on to the ceasefire till the current political crisis has produced an outcome. The Tigers are also aware that they can get foreign aid for development only if they keep away from violence. They are, however, also aware that if the current situation of 'no war, no peace,' continues it will make them politically and administratively impotent and lead to the erosion of their support base. In the words of one pro-Tiger analyst, a politically and administratively impotent LTTE that cannot deliver anything socially or economically concrete to the Tamils should, in theory, crumble inevitably if it is held for a sufficiently long time in a no war no peace situation.

The LTTE is not unmindful of this stock counter insurgency wisdom.

At Kaushalyan's funeral, the LTTE said its patience was running thin and warned the Government of a 'fitting response'. On Wednesday, February 23, 2005, LTTE cadres killed a soldier and wounded another in Killali in the North. The LTTE did not mince words to claim the responsibility for the incident. "Yes, we did it, so what" was its attitude.

In the three years of ceasefire, Wednesday's incident was just another violation. When the Tigers are accused of ceasefire violations they respond with ease by pointing to the Government's ceasefire violations, which are largely unseen. They claim, for instance, that the Government has not fulfilled its pledges to vacate all public buildings and homes in the North East and to disarm paramilitaries. Besides, the LTTE claims that the Government has also upset the military balance by buying arms from Iran and Pakistan under multi-million dollar credit lines, adding that the flow of tsunami aid has emboldened the Government to take this step.

On the other hand, the Government accuses the LTTE of covertly building up its military machine even as the country was grappled with the tsunami disaster. It is alleged that the Tigers have obtained military hardware under the cover of tsunami relief. Tsunami aid cargoes destined for the LTTE and detected at the airport have included two helicopters, ammunition and a consignment of body armour.

The Government fears that the LTTE has grown from strength to strength during the ceasefire. According to defence officials, it has not only accrued air power, but also swelled its ranks with child soldiers. As of February 2004, there were more than 1,250 child soldiers in LTTE camps, but the real figure could be much higher, according to UNICEF. If a resolution currently being discussed by the United Nations Security Council is adopted next month, there would be targeted sanctions against Governments and rebel leaders who continue to recruit child soldiers. The LTTE is likely to play the peace card to circumvent international sanctions.

Thus the no-peace-no-war situation is expected to continue till the LTTE finds the correct political and military coordinates to take its next step. In Sri Lanka's conflict resolution exercise, it is the LTTE which still calls the shots.


BANGLADESH

From Denial to Tentative Confrontation
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On February 24, 2005, Prime Minister Khaleda Zia instructed the Home Ministry and the intelligence agencies to 'root out' Islamist militants, their hideouts and subversive activities. She also decided in principle to set up an additional bench at the High Court to ensure speedy trial of cases of subversive acts. The orders came after the Government decided to ban the Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB) and Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), accusing them of a large number of bomb attacks and killings in recent times. A press note to the effect read: "The Government notices with concern that two organisations called Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh and Jama'atul Mujahideen have been carrying out a series of murders, robberies, bomb attacks, threats and various kinds of terrorist acts causing deaths to peace-loving people and destruction of property. Under the circumstances, the government announces enforcement of ban on all activities of Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh and Jama'atul Muhjahideen."

  Also Read
Rhetoric and Denial -- Saji Cherian
Democracy in Terror -- Anand Kumar

The Daily Star, on February 24, described the Government decision to proscribe the JMJB as "Eating own words". Only a month earlier, State Minister for Home, Lutfozzaman Babar, had emphatically denied the existence of the JMJB and had said on January 26, "We don't know officially about the existence of the JMJB. Only some so-called newspapers are publishing reports on it. We don't have their constitution in our record." Babar was reacting to a spate of reports documenting the activities of the JMJB and evidence of its linkages with at least a section of the political establishment and administration.

The past week has witnessed several raids on the JMJB and JMB establishments across the country and arrests of key leaders and activists. Police personnel arrested a Professor of Arabic at Rajshahi University, Dr. Muhammad Asadullah al-Ghalib, chief of the Islamist organisation, Ahle Hadith Andolon Bangladesh (AHAB), and three of his close associates on February 23. On the same day, three JMB operatives in Gaibandha and two in Rangpur, as well as two JMJB activists in Rajshahi were also arrested in a police crackdown in the northern parts of the country. Eleven JMB activists were arrested from different places in the Dinajpur and Thakurgaon districts on February 24. On February 25, two JMB cadres Qaree Nazrul, a teacher at the Shibganj Hajardighi Islamia Madrassa, and Nurul Islam, a teacher at Chandpur Dakhil Madrassa, were arrested from Shibganj in the Chapai Nawabganj district.

The current flurry of Governmental activism (the present regime has largely been seen as a benefactor or at least a mute spectator to the steady growth of Islamist radicalism in the country) was preceded by a well documented publication by the opposition Awami League (AL), titled Growing fanaticism and extremism in Bangladesh: Shades of Taliban. Released on February 13, 2005, the 74-page document, apart from its inherent political import, was significant on three grounds.

  1. It marked a widening of the divide in the polarized politics of the two primary political parties in the country. The AL has now taken its 'war' with the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to the international audience.
  2. The AL has enormously increased pressure on the BNP-led regime to respond to mounting Islamist extremist activities in the country.
  3. It is one of the first detailed documentation by an 'internal' source in Bangladesh, of systemic acts of State-tolerated terror, which have been repeatedly highlighted by a number of foreign news agencies and organisations, including SAIR, over the past years.

The AL report documents at least 34 bomb blasts between 1999 and February 2005, in which 164 persons have been killed and 1,735 people have been injured. While the magnitude of attacks and casualties recorded would count for little in a country with Bangladesh's profile, a pattern appears to be developing. The bomb attacks have mixed in with a much wider campaign of intimidation, violence and terror, even as the number of bombings demonstrates rising trends. An analysis of the bombing incidents in the AL report shows that, while there were just 13 bomb attacks between 1999 and 2003, the year 2004 alone witnessed 13 such attacks, and there have been another eight within the first two months of 2005.

With implicit patronage from the current regime, or a benign disregard of their activities, the Islamist forces in the country, have systematically targeted Opposition political parties like the AL, as well as minorities such as the Ahmadiyyas and Hindus, progressives and intellectuals. The January 27, 2005, grenade attack at Boidder Bazar in Habiganj district, in which former Finance Minister and AL Parliamentarian, S.A.M.S. Kibria was killed, appears to have breached the limits of the AL's patience, provoking the new report. The AL had witnessed a similar attack at a rally addressed by its Chief and former Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, on August 21, 2004 in Dhaka. Eight of the 34 bomb attacks documented by the AL Report have targeted the AL; nine were detonated during cultural functions such as jatras and fairs; and five occurred at religious shrines, including the one in the shrine of Hazrat Shahjalal in Sylhet on May 21, 2004, in which the British High Commissioner was injured. The AL Report notes, "The selective and deliberate targeting of AL and the like-minded secular and progressive forces, cultural organisations, religious minority groups and entertainment places such as movie halls or local fairs indicates a clear pattern that clearly unmasks the identity of perpetrators of such crimes and their ideology."

Does recent action by the Government mean that Bangladesh is now on a changed track? There has been wide speculation that the Government's steps were precipitated by pressure from Western donor agencies and diplomatic circles, provoking the State Minister for Home, Lutfozzaman Babar, to deny any foreign pressure. Babar told the British Broadcasting Corporation's Bangla service on February 23, 2005, "We did not receive any international pressure to ban them. The Government has done it out of its sense of responsibility." Nevertheless, this sudden 'sense of responsibility' does appear to have been excited by mounting external pressures and perceptions, including the hard stand taken by the European Union on the regime's 'apathy in tackling the situation' and the belief that Bangladesh's slide towards a fundamentalist regime continues unabated. Although the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) appear to have taken a softer stand, lauding Bangladesh for its 'impressive performance' in many social sectors, the overall impression is that the situation in the country has been deteriorating fast and the Government has failed to improve governance. Bangladesh's development partners rounded off a meeting at the Watergate Hotel in Washington on February 25, 2005, with an expression of concern regarding deteriorating governance, and deciding to keep a close watch on how the Government tackles the rise of fundamentalist militancy and improves the overall scenario of governance. A joint statement issued at the end of the meet stated, "The participants, by consensus, expressed serious concern at the deterioration of the governance situation in Bangladesh, especially the situation of law and order, political violence including recent bombings, and the climate of impunity."

Despite the intensity of external pressure, the early 'positive' signs could be deceptive. Amidst the Prime Minister and the President's call for strong concerted action against Islamist fundamentalism in the country, there are already indications that the current phase of activism might not last long. The Daily Star on February 26, 2005, reported that, on February 24, a day after the Government ban on the JMJB, 50 cadres of the outfit gathered in a meeting at the house of an Islamist fundamentalist leader in Bhabaniganj Bazar. In Bagmara, JMJB leaders in many areas continued to organise their fellow workers. Among them were JMJB Bagmara unit president, Lutfar Rahman, a Professor at Atrai Mollah Azad Memorial College; Sakoa college teacher Shahidullah; Bhabaniganj college teachers Abed Ali, Abdur Razzak and Kalimuddin; Ibrahim of Jhikra and Akkas of Goalkandi. Similarly, even three days after the arrest of the AHAB amir (chief) Dr. Muhammad Asadullah Al Galib and his three top aides, police had not arrested any of Galib's known associates. Galib is the suspected kingpin of Islamist militants in the western region, and a large number of documents in his office and the various AHAB-run madrasas were left untouched by the Government at the time of, and after, his arrest. On another front, the Independent reported on February 26 that all the accused in the April 2, 2004 Chittagong arms recovery case, billed as the biggest in the country's history, had been released on bail.

The BNP is bound to find itself in an unenviable position once its Islamist alliance partners in the coalition Government begin to act to protect their 'interests'. On February 24, Fazlul Haque Amini, Chairman of a faction of the Islami Oikyo Jote (IOJ), warned at a public meeting in Mymensingh, "We'll sharply react if any Islamic leader falls victim to the ongoing operation." He also said that there was a conspiracy to prevent Islamic revolution in the name of taming the Islamist militants, "But the conspirators will not succeed." On the same day, Maulana Abdur Rob Yousufi, Secretary General of another faction of the IOJ, opposed the ban on the JMJB and JMB, declaring, "There's no Islamic militant organisation in the country". It is a matter of time before such statements are translated into political action. It remains to be seen whether the BNP chooses to alienate its alliance partners to secure greater appreciation and support from the outside world.

 

NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
February 21-27, 2005

 
Civilian
Security Force Personnel
Terrorist
Total

BANGLADESH

0
0
4
4

INDIA

     Assam

0
0
1
1

     Jammu &
     Kashmir

3
5
17
25

     Left-wing
     Extremism

3
7
6
16

     Manipur

3
0
1
4

     Meghalaya

0
0
1
1

     Nagaland

0
0
2
2

Total (INDIA)

9
12
28
49

NEPAL

7
16
39
62

PAKISTAN

1
0
0
1

SRI LANKA

0
1
0
1
 Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh and Jamaatul Mujahidin proscribed: On February 23, 2005, the Ministry of Home Affairs announced a ban on the vigilante Islamist groups, Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), and Jamaatul Mujahidin. "The two banned organisations have been engaged in killing, dacoity, bomb attacks, issuing threats and other subversive activities in different parts of the country, endangering the lives of the common people and destroying their property," said a press note issued by the Ministry. The police, meanwhile, arrested a Professor of Arabic at Rajshahi University, Dr. Muhammad Asadullah al-Ghalib, chief of another Islamist outfit, the Ahle Hadith Andolon Bangladesh, and three of his close associates. With the latest proscription, the number of banned Islamist organisations has now increased to three. On February 9, 2002, the Government had outlawed the Shahdat al Hiqma, which operates in the Rajshahi region. The Daily Star, February 24, 2005.


INDIA

Three police personnel among six persons killed during Fidayeen attack in Srinagar: Three police personnel, a woman employee of the Revenue Department and two terrorists were killed and four persons sustained injuries during a fidayeen (suicide squad) attack at the Divisional Commissioner's office in the capital of Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar, on February 24, 2005. The two terrorists forced their entry into the Revenue Complex while throwing a grenade and firing on the guards, at 1500 hours (IST). Three police personnel were killed in the initial round of firing and an equal number sustained injuries. Both terrorists were shot dead in the subsequent gun-battle. Around 250 people, including the Srinagar Deputy Commissioner and the Deputy Inspector-General of Police (Kashmir Range), were in the building at the time of the attack. This was the second fidayeen attack of the year in Kashmir valley. A spokesperson of the Al Badr told local news agencies over telephone that cadres of his outfit had carried out the Fidayeen attack. He reportedly identified them as Irfan Bhai and Sikandar Bhai, residents of Gujarat in Pakistan. Daily Excelsior, February 25, 2005.



NEPAL

Maoist insurgents withdraw blockade: The Maoist insurgents have reportedly withdrawn their two week-old indefinite blockade on major highways with immediate effect from February 26, 2005. The Maoists' student wing, the All Nepal National Free Students Union (Revolutionary), has also followed suit by calling off its indefinite strike at educational institutions across the country. In a statement, the Maoist chairman, Prachanda, said his party had decided to suspend the call for an indefinite transport strike and blockade of the highways for the present, "realizing a serious responsibility towards the people." He, however, said that they would launch fresh protests if a "forward-looking political way out" could not be worked out. Nepal News, February 27, 2005.

India and Britain suspend military aid to Nepal: On February 22, 2005, Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson, Navtej Sarna, while stating that no military supplies had been delivered to Nepal since February 1, 2005, added that India has urged the Nepalese Government to restore political processes, lift restrictions on the press and release all detained political leaders, academics and rights activists. "The issue of military supplies to Nepal has been under continuous review taking into account the evolving situation in that country", said Sarna.
On the same day, British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, stated that the British Government had decided to suspend a planned package of military assistance to Nepal and added, "We are now considering with key international partners what our longer term policy for providing assistance to Nepal should be, including assistance with a humanitarian purpose." The three million pound package of non-lethal equipments included vehicles, night flying and communication devices and bomb disposal equipment. The Hindu; The Himalayan Times, February 23, 2005.


PAKISTAN

National Economic Council approves new security plan for Balochistan province: The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) has reportedly approved Rupees 9.6 billion for converting 'B' Areas of Balochistan into 'A' and the raising of 6,000 additional force for the Balochistan Constabulary. The ECNEC in its meeting at Islamabad on February 25, 2005, headed by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, also approved 39 projects worth Rupees 124.5 billion, including 23 new projects costing Rupees 98.5 billion. Important projects in the area of governance include conversion of 25 'B' districts of Balochistan into 'A' areas at a cost of Rupees 5.5 billion, and an additional Rupees 4.14 billion to raise a force of 6,000 Balochistan Constabulary (existing 4000). Currently, 5 per cent of the province was 'A area', while 95 per cent was 'B', where the police did not operate. Jang, February 26, 2005.

US have paid Pakistanis $57m for information on Al Qaeda: The United States has disbursed a sum of $57 million to people in Pakistan who provided information on the Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, according to a senior US official. The official told Christian Science Monitor which carried a report in its February 22, 2005, issue on the TV advertising campaign currently being run in Pakistan to capture Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda operatives. The unnamed official reportedly said, "This kind of thing has worked before, both here in Pakistan, and in Colombia as well," adding that $57 million has been disbursed thus far under this programme in Pakistan and some of the arrests have been as a result of tip-offs. The advertisements are being broadcast in Urdu, Sindhi, Balochi and Pushto languages along with images of Laden, Ayman al-Zawahri and Mullah Omar. Daily Times, February 23, 2005.



The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni



To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe.

Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) to a friend.

 

 

 

 

 
Copyright © 2001 SATP. All rights reserved.